Thursday’s eight-game slate marks the start of a few exciting series, including the Reds hosting the Cubs and the Indians facing the Twins.
Read MoreMLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/3/2019
As far as odd schedules go, Monday’s slate in the majors is right up there. There will only be four games, three of which will make up the main evening slate in DFS. By the way, the slate doesn’t start until 9:40 PM EST.
Read MoreMLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/2019
Scoring might be hard to come by for Thursday’s five-game evening slate in DFS with so many top pitchers set to take the mound. There are still a couple of stacks to take advantage of, but they figure to have high ownership percentages based on the limited options.
Read MoreMLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/28/18
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
June special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout
Only four of the 10 games in baseball have evening start times Thursday, so let’s examine some players with favorable matchups throughout the day in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
STARTING PITCHERS
Aaron Nola vs. Washington Nationals
Stadium – Citizens Bank Park
FanDuel = $9,700
DraftKings = $12,100
Nola had a very good campaign for the Phillies in 2017, but his numbers are off the charts this year. His 2.58 ERA is supported by a 2.83 FIP and a 1.02 WHIP despite the fact that his strikeout rate is actually down from 26.6% last year to 25.1% this season. His swinging-strike rate is actually up, though, at 11.2% and he’s done a great job keeping hitters in the ballpark with a 0.5 HR/9. He’s also been stellar pitching at home with a 1.86 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. The Nationals lineup is finally getting healthy, but they have still only averaged 2.1 runs across their last seven games. One of those contests was against Nola, who held the Nationals to two runs while recording five strikeouts in six innings.
Chris Stratton vs. Colorado Rockies
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $6,900
Stratton’s numbers are very average this season with a 4.14 ERA, 4.00 FIP, and a 1.36 WHIP. Normally if you want to take a chance on a cheap pitcher in tournament play, you want to target someone with strikeout upside. That’s not Stratton’s strong suit as he only has a 6.9 K/9. However, he has pitched well in June with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in five starts. The Rockies are juggernauts at Coors Field with a .804 OPS, but they only have a .676 OPS on the road. Stratton might still be worth the risk at this price despite his lack of strikeouts.
CATCHER/FIRST BASE
Jesus Aguilar vs. Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $5,200
Aguilar was presented with an opportunity to play every day when Eric Thames went down with an injury earlier this season and has played so well that he is still starting regularly even though Thames has returned. He has a ton of power with 18 home runs, four of which have come in his last four starts. His nine home runs in June are impressive, but equally as impressive is that he is hitting .300 in the month despite only having a .286 BABIP. He has shed his stigma of not being able to hit righties with a .399 wOBA against them this year, making him a great option again Wednesday.
Evan Gattis vs. Ryne Stanek, Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $4,200
Stanek will start for the Rays, but this will be one of their bullpen games as Stanek hasn’t pitched more than two innings in a game this season. Lefty Ryan Yarbrough is expected to follow Stanek and should eat up several innings. He hasn’t exactly been lights out with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP and could have plenty of trouble with Gattis, who is batting .279 with eight home runs and a staggering 30 RBI in June, five of which have come in his last two games.
Others to consider: Mitch Moreland (first base) and Chris Herrmann (catcher)
SECOND BASE
Scooter Gennett vs. Junior Guerra, Milwaukee Brewers
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $4,600
Gennett is 13-for-40 (.325) with three doubles, a home run and 10 runs scored during his current 10-game hitting streak. He has shown no signs of struggling after a breakout season in 2017, batting .336 with 13 home runs and 53 RBI this year. With a .377 wOBA against righties, Gennett is one of the best options available at his position Wednesday.
Dee Gordon vs. Jimmy Yacabonis, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,400
As if the Orioles starting rotation wasn’t bad enough, they’ll turn to Yacabonis to start against the Mariners. His 16 career appearances in the majors over the last two seasons have all come out of the bullpen and resulted in a 5.48 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP. His 3.14 ERA and 1.10 WHIP as a starter in Triple-A look nice, but it’s concerning that he only posted a 6.8 K/9. Gordon doesn’t strike out much and can do a lot of damage when he gets on base, giving him upside against the inexperienced Yacabonis.
Others to consider: Ian Kinsler and Brock Holt
THIRD BASE
Alex Bregman vs. Ryne Stanek, Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $5,300
Bregman must be sad to see the Astros series against the Blue Jays come to an end as he was 9-for-14 with three home runs in five doubles in the three contests. He’s shown a much better eye at the plate this season and actually has more walks (47) than strikeouts (46). With a .400 wOBA against left-handed pitchers, he could put up some big numbers again once Yarbrough enters this game.
Kyle Seager vs. Jimmy Yacabonis, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,100
Seager has taken advantage of the Orioles’ mediocre pitching in this series, hitting 5-for-16 with two home runs in three games. His average still sits at an ugly .230, but he’s up to 15 home runs and 20 doubles. He’s not overly expensive on either site and could be a valuable part of any Mariners stack.
Others to consider: Jed Lowrie and Justin Turner
SHORTSTOP
Jean Segura vs. Jimmy Yacabonis, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $4,900
A Mariners stack against Yacabonis will probably be one of the most popular plays of the day. Add Segura into the mix, who appears to be fine after missing some time with a forearm infection as he is 5-for-9 with four runs scored in the last two games. Segura only has six home runs this year, but he’s hitting .338 and could score plenty of runs if the Mariners do explode offensively.
Kike Hernandez vs. Jose Quintana, Chicago Cubs
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $3,600
Hernandez has made a compelling case to start more regularly, hitting 17-for-51 (.333) with six home runs, 10 RBI and 13 runs scored in his last 15 games. Chris Taylor’s hamstring injury has opened up playing time for Hernandez, but he is expected to rejoin the lineup Thursday. Hernandez is much better against lefties with a .349 wOBA, so he still might find his way into the lineup.
Others to consider: Xander Bogaerts and Andrelton Simmons
OUTFIELD
Andrew Benintendi vs. Jaime Barria, Los Angeles Angels
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $5,000
Benintendi’s success is sometimes lost in the crazy seasons that Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are having, but he’s been excellent as well by hitting .290 with 13 home runs and 13 steals. With so many potent bats around him in the Red Sox lineup, he’s racked up the counting stats with 51 RBI and 56 runs scored. Barria’s 4.77 FIP indicates he is not pitching as well as his 3.40 ERA might make you think. Benintendi only has a .297 wOBA against lefties but is much better against righties with a .404 wOBA.
Eddie Rosario vs. Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $5,500
One of the key pieces of the trade that sent Adam Eaton to the Nationals, Giolito has been awful this year with a 7.01 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP. Not only does he have a 5.4 BB/9, but he’s allowed 12 home runs in 78.1 innings. He has allowed a .403 wOBA to left-handed hitters and will have to face one of the hottest ones in baseball in Rosario. He’s expensive on DraftKings, but his price on FanDuel provides the potential for excellent value.
Denard Span vs. Jimmy Yacabonis, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = $4,100
Span has been a great addition for the Mariners, batting .296 with three home runs in 89 plate appearances since joining the team. He usually doesn’t provide much in the power department, but he is batting .282 for his career. He has a .347 wOBA against right-handed pitchers since the start of the 2015 season and is yet another Mariner worth considering for your entry.
Others to consider: Christian Yelich and Justin Upton
MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/31/18
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
May special! Use Code PAMLB30 at checkout
Thursday brings a relatively light schedule with only 11 games in baseball, nine of which are night games. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
STARTING PITCHERS
Aaron Nola vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $9,500
DraftKings = $11,100
Nola has quietly become one of the more reliable pitchers in baseball. He’s not an elite strikeout pitcher like Max Scherzer or Chris Sale, but his 9.3 K/9 isn’t exactly poor either. He has allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his 11 starts this season, resulting in a 2.27 ERA and a 2.72 FIP. He has thrown a first-pitch strike to a career-high 66.2% of the batters that he has faced while also holding opponents to a 25.1% hard-hit rate. This should be a fun pitchers duel with Clayton Kershaw returning from injury to take the hill for the Dodgers. Based on his cheaper price, especially on FanDuel, Nola may be the one who provides the most value.
Shane Bieber vs. Minnesota Twins
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $7,300
Bieber will make his big league debut Thursday, but may only get the one start before being sent back down to the minors. He has started in both Double-A and Triple-A this season, posting a combined 1.10 ERA and 0.70 WHIP. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher with a career 8.4 K/9, but he’s also shown excellent control with a 0.5 BB/9. Home runs haven’t been a problem for him either with a career 0.4 HR/9. The Twins have scored the fifth-fewest runs (210) in baseball, so it might be worth taking a chance on Bieber in tournament play at this cheap price.
CATCHER/FIRST BASE
Greg Bird vs. Andrew Cashner, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $4,100
Bird has been limited to four games due to injury this season, logging at least one hit in each of his last three contests. He has a ton of talent, but injuries have really hampered his career after bursting onto the scene with 11 homers in 46 games in 2015. Including this season, Cashner has allowed a wOBA of at least .378 to left-handed hitters in three of the last four years. Bird won’t destroy your budget either, making him a viable option to consider.
Ryon Healy vs. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $3,600
Healy didn’t cash in a prime opportunity against Matt Moore on Wednesday, but he’ll get to face another struggling lefty in Minor on Thursday. Not only does Minor have a 5.63 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, but he has already allowed 10 home runs in only 54.1 innings. Righties have a .380 wOBA against Minor so far this year, making Healy an excellent option when you also consider he has a .368 wOBA against lefties for his career.
Others to consider: Yonder Alonso (first base) and Wilson Contreras (catcher)
SECOND BASE
Jose Altuve vs. Drew Pomeranz, Boston Red Sox
Stadium – Minute Maid Park
FanDuel = $4,400
DraftKings = $4,900
After hitting exactly 24 home runs in each of the last two seasons, Altuve hasn’t found his power swing yet with only four long balls this year. He is still batting .335 with 16 steals, making him an extremely valuable asset. Pomeranz has been horrid this season with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP while also allowing a .415 wOBA against righties, so this might be the day to pay up for Altuve.
Jonathan Schoop vs. Sonny Gray, New York Yankees
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,700
Gray has been almost as bad as Pomeranz, recording a 5.98 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP across 10 starts. The Yankees have tried making Austin Romine has personal catcher since they have had some success together in the past, but Gray has still allowed five runs each in two of his last three starts. There is no righty/lefty advantage for Schoop with this matchup, but he’s still someone to consider based on how poorly Gray has been pitching.
Others to consider: Gleyber Torres and Starlin Castro
THIRD BASE
Alex Bregman vs. Drew Pomeranz, Boston Red Sox
Stadium – Minute Maid Park
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKinga = $4,100
The Astros present a prime stacking opportunity against Pomeranz with Bregman also being someone to target. He hasn’t been hitting a lot of home runs, but Bregman does have at least one hit in 12 of his last 13 games. He had a stellar .406 wOBA against lefties in 2017 but has struggled with a .311 wOBA against them this year. Now that he’s showing signs of coming out of his early slump, look for that number to start climbing.
Miguel Andujar vs. Andrew Cashner, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $4,200
The Yankees have so many power bats and Gleyber Torres has been so hot since being called up that Andujar doesn’t get a lot of headlines. His contributions should not go unnoticed, though, as he is batting .290 and looks ready to be the Yankees third baseman of the future. He doesn’t walk much and only has five home runs, but he does already have 17 doubles. His numbers have been better against right-handed pitchers this year as well, so don’t shy away from him just because he doesn’t have righty/lefty advantage facing Cashner.
Others to consider: Jose Ramirez and Christian Villanueva
SHORTSTOP
Manny Machado vs. Sonny Gray, New York Yankees
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $4,400
DraftKings = $5,400
Machado has loved hitting at home, posting a .362 average there this season compared to a .296 mark on the road. 10 of his 16 home runs have also come at home despite having 23 more plate appearances on the road. With the way Gray has been pitching, Machado could be in for a huge night.
Jean Segura vs. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,600
Segura is swinging a hot bat as he is 12-for-21 with two doubles and one home run in his last five games. He’s helped keep the Mariners offense afloat with Robinson Cano (suspension) and Dee Gordon (toe) out, but they will get some reinforcements with Gordon expected to return Thursday. With a .367 wOBA against lefties this year, he’s a great option if you don’t want to pay up for Machado.
Others to consider: Carlos Correa and Didi Gregorius
OUTFIELD
Michael Brantley vs. Jake Odorizzi, Minnesota Twins
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $4,900
Injuries have limited Brantley to 101 games in the last two seasons combined, but he’s shown this season that he can still be a very valuable player when healthy. He’s already played 44 games and is batting .343 with nine home runs. He is currently on a 19-game hittings streak with seven of his nine home runs coming in May as well. He has been a better hitter against righties with .352 wOBA against them for his career.
Mitch Haniger vs. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,400
Haniger entered the month of May batting .309 with 10 home runs. He’s dropped off dramatically since, batting .242 with just one homer. His BABIP has remained relatively the same, so it’s not as if his poor performance can be chalked up to bad luck. The good news is that he is crushing lefties with a 188 wRC+, so don’t sleep on him against Minor.
Nelson Cruz vs. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,000
Cruz is 6-for-13 with a home run in this series against the Rangers and will look to close things out strong Thursday. His numbers this season aren’t great overall, but he has still managed a .372 wOBA against left-handed pitchers. He makes for a great option on both sites, but especially on FanDuel at such a low price.
Others to consider: George Springer and Brett Gardner
MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/8/18
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/8/18
Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout
There is only one day game in the majors Tuesday, leaving a bevy of options to choose from for evening slate in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
STARTING PITCHERS
Aaron Nola vs. San Francisco Giants
Stadium – Citizens Bank Park
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $10,100
Nola has followed up his breakout campaign last year with a 2.17 ERA, 2.98 FIP, and 0.92 WHIP through seven starts. His K/9 is only 6.9, but expect that to increase sooner rather than later since he has finished with a K/9 of at least 9.8 in back-to-back seasons. He has been a bit lucky with opponents posting a .236 BABIP, but he has thrown a first-pitch strike to 65.7% of the batters that he has faced and has a 33.2% O-swing % (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone), both of which would be career highs. The Giants are tied for the eighth-fewest runs scored (141) in baseball, so look for a big performance from Nola.
Sean Newcomb vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $8,500
Newcomb has pitched well out of the gate with a 3.38 ERA, 3.17 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP. He had control issues last year with a 5.1 BB/9, but he’s cut that down to 3.9 this season, some of which can be attributed to him throwing a first-pitch strike to 64.8% of the batters that he has faced. He also provides excellent strikeout upside with a 10.9 K/9. Newcomb has been a better pitcher on the road during his Major League career, posting a 3.23 ERA compared to a 4.79 ERA at home. If you’re looking for a more cost-effective option, Newcomb might be worth the risk in tournament play.
CATCHER/FIRST BASE
Edwin Encarnacion vs. Wade Miley, Milwaukee Brewers
Stadium – Miller Park
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,700
The Indians will lose the DH playing in Miller Park, but Encarnacion will likely start at first base over Yonder Alonso with the lefty Miley on the mound. Encarnacion is hitting just .198 this season, but a lot of that has to do with his .208 BABIP. He still has nine home runs and a 34.9% hard-hit rate that is actually slightly higher than his career mark. He has finished with a wOBA of at least .360 against lefties in eight straight seasons, so he could break out against Miley.
John Hicks vs. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $3,500
With Miguel Cabrera (hamstring) on the DL, Hicks has been seeing regular playing time. Despite playing in only 14 games this year, he has three home runs and four doubles to go along with a .283 average. He’s never had more than 190 plate appearances in a single season during his Major League career, but he did bat .283 in seven seasons in the minors. Minor has held lefties to just a .231 wOBA this season, but righties have had more success with a .364 wOBA. If you want to go the cheaper route, Hicks could provide value.
Others to consider: Anthony Rizzo (first base) and Gary Sanchez (catcher)
SECOND BASE
Robinson Cano vs. Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $3,700
Cano isn’t hitting home runs like he did in his heyday with the Yankees, but he actually has as many walks as strikeouts this season. He’s never been someone who strikes out much, but he has 20 walks in 143 plate appearances this season after finishing with 49 walks in 648 plate appearances last year. He’s still hitting for a high average and has a .378 wOBA against right-handed pitchers in his career, making him an excellent option against the struggling Stroman.
Howie Kendrick vs. Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,800
Kendrick has proven to be an important part of the Nationals’ lineup this season due to several key injuries. His numbers aren’t flashy, but his .286 batting average is pretty much right in line with his career mark. He’s someone to target against left-handed pitchers after finishing with a .385 wOBA against them last year. Richard has allowed a .356 wOBA in his career against righties, making Kendrick a viable cost-effective option for your entry.
Others to consider: Starlin Castro and Cesar Hernandez
THIRD BASE
Eugenio Suarez vs. Jason Vargas, New York Mets
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $4,700
Vargas has been shelled in his two starts this season, recording a 16.20 ERA and 3.00 WHIP. He’s never had overpowering stuff with a 6.0 K/9 for his career, so add that to the fact that he has issued five walks and allowed five home runs in just 8.1 innings and you get a disaster. Suarez roughed up lefties for a 135 RC+ last year and has a 195 wRC+ against them this season, leaving you with a great opportunity to take advantage of Vargas.
Anthony Rendon vs. Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $3,700
Rendon has only played three games since coming off the DL, but he hasn’t shown signs of rust, batting 3-for- 10 with two doubles, three RBI, and three walks. He destroyed left-handed pitchers with a 186 wRC+ last year and is another Nationals righty to consider stacking against Richard, especially with his reasonable price on both sites.
Others to consider: Jose Ramirez and Colin Moran
SHORTSTOP
Manny Machado vs. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $4,900
Machado is off to one of the hottest starts in baseball with a 1.054 OPS that ranks fourth in the American League. He currently has the highest BB% and lowest K% of his career to go along with a .277 ISO. He has a .440 wOBA against left-handed pitchers this year and Duffy has had problems limiting home runs through his seven starts, giving Machado significant upside in this matchup.
Jose Peraza vs. Jason Vargas, New York Mets
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,200
Peraza still doesn’t draw many walks, but his .285 average this season has been a significant improvement over his .259 mark last year. He’s striking out less and making better contact with a 27.3% hard-hit rate, so he’s finally starting to show signs of why he was thought of so highly by some people when he was given an everyday job last year, myself included. With Vargas struggling mightily right now, Peraza could provide value at this price, especially on FanDuel.
Others to consider: Trea Turner and Tim Anderson
OUTFIELD
Rhys Hoskins vs. Derek Holland, San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $4,900
Hoskins hasn’t shown any signs of struggling in his first full season in the majors, batting .281 with .928 OPS. He’s not off to the torrid home run pace that he was last year, but five homers and 10 doubles through 34 games is still impressive. With a .421 wOBA against lefties in his brief career, he makes a lot of sense against the struggling Holland on Tuesday.
Kyle Schwarber vs. Jose Urena, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Wrigley Field
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $4,800
Schwarber has put his struggles from last year behind him so far, batting .269 with a .376 OBP this season. Always a power threat, he also has a .548 slugging percentage. He still had a .343 wOBA against righties last year despite all his issues and has posted a .424 wOBA against them so far this season. Urena doesn’t overmatch many hitters with a 5.9 K/9 for his career, so he could have trouble getting Schwarber out in this game.
Nomar Mazara vs. Mike Fiers, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,800
Mazara hit exactly 20 home runs in both of his first two seasons with the Rangers but has already slugged eight homers this year. He has a 40.2% hard-hit rate, which is almost nine percentage points higher than his career mark. Mazara only has a .270 wOBA against lefties in his career, but righties have not proven to be as difficult, resulting in a .338 wOBA against them. If you’re looking for a cheaper outfielder with upside, Mazara might be your man.
MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 7
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 7
Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout
Injuries to starting pitchers are starting to pile up around baseball, the latest of which saw both Jacob deGrom (elbow) and Clayton Kershaw (biceps) land on the DL. Your starting fantasy staff might not be as strong as a result. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.
Starters With Favorable Matchups
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies: vs. SF, vs. NYM
Nola has followed up his breakout campaign last year with a 2.17 ERA, 2.98 FIP, and 0.92 WHIP through seven starts. His K/9 is only 6.9, but expect that to increase sooner rather than later since he has finished with a K/9 of at least 9.8 in back-to-back seasons. He has been a bit lucky with opponents posting a .236 BABIP, but he has thrown a first-pitch strike to 65.7% of the batters that he has faced and has a 33.2% O-swing % (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone), both of which would be career highs. The Giants and Mets are both in the bottom 10 in the league in runs scored, leaving Nola with the potential for a great week.
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs: vs. MIA, vs. CWS
Hendricks has a 3.19 ERA and 1.09 WHIP this season, but a deeper diver indicates he has not pitched that well. His FIP sits at 5.31 and opponents have just a .223 BABIP. He’s been victimized by the long ball as well, allowing eight home runs in 36.2 innings. He only has a 0.9 HR/9 for his career, so expect some improvement from him in that area as the season wears on. He has already faced the Marlins once this season, allowing one earned run to go along with five strikeouts in six innings. The Marlins have also hit the fewest home runs (24) in baseball, which should help Hendricks with his homer problems. He also has the benefit of facing the White Sox at home, so he won’t have to face the designated hitter. Although he’s not a big strikeout pitcher, look for a valuable week from Hendricks.
Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles: vs. KC, vs. TB
Bundy has been unlucky this season, allowing a .345 BABIP to opposing hitters. It’s resulted to a 1.35 WHIP, but his 10.6 K/9 has helped offset the issue and result in a 3.76 ERA and 3.67 FIP. His increased K/9 can be attributed to his career-high marks in both O-swing % (38.2%) and swinging strike percentage (15.6%). He’s been roughed up in his last two outings, but that’s mainly because he allowed five home runs after giving up just one long ball in his first five starts combined. The Royals and Rays are both in the bottom 10 in the league in OPS against right-handed pitching this season, so look for Bundy to rebound in Week 7.
Sean Newcomb, Atlanta Braves: at TB, at MIA
Newcomb was lined up to start twice last week, but the Braves altered their rotation by calling up promising rookie Mike Soroka. Newcomb now gets his two starts in Week 7 and will look to continue his excellent start to the season. He had control issues last year with a 5.1 BB/9, but he’s cut that down to 3.9 this season, some of which can be attributed to him throwing a first-pitch strike to 64.8% of the batters that he has faced. He also provides excellent strikeout upside with a 10.9 K/9. Newcomb has been a better pitcher on the road during his Major League career, posting a 3.23 ERA compared to a 4.79 ERA at home. Amazingly, he’s still available in 51% of Yahoo! leagues, so he would make an excellent pickup this week if you can grab him.
Starters to Avoid
Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals: at BAL, at CLE
Duffy is not off to a great start with a 5.63 ERA and 5.61 FIP through seven outings. He’s had a problem keeping runners off base with a 1.49 WHIP, but his opponents .292 BABIP is not high by any means. He is giving up a lot of solid contact with a 41% hard-hit rate that is almost 10 percentage points higher than his career mark. His BB/9 and HR/9 are both up as well, which is not a recipe for success. The Orioles only have a .629 OPS this season against right-handed pitchers but have hit lefties much better with a .720 OPS. The Indians are also in the top 10 in baseball in terms of runs scored overall, meaning this might be the week to put Duffy on your bench.
Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays: vs. SEA, vs. BOS
Stroman couldn’t be off to a much worse start, recording a 7.52 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. His opponents .330 BABIP isn’t a lot higher than his .307 career BABIP allowed and he’s had significant control issues with a 4.5 BB/9. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, so he can’t afford to continue throwing a first-pitch strike to just 56.7% of the batters that he has faced this season. The Mariners and Red Sox are both in the top eight in the league in OPS against righties, so this could be a rough week for Stroman.
Jose Urena, Miami Marlins: at CHC, vs. ATL
Urena isn’t having a terrible season despite his 0-5 record, posting a 4.28 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He doesn’t have much strikeout upside with just a 7.2 K/9 and his 43.1% hard-hit rate allowed is concerning as well. This week brings two very tough matchups, the first of which comes against a Cubs squad that scored five runs in four innings against him on opening day. He then has to face a Braves team that has scored the third-most runs in baseball, so this could be a bad week to take a chance on him in your lineup.
MLB Fantasy Lineup Today – July 3, 2017
*Austyn Varney*
MLB Fantasy Lineup Today – July 3, 2017
Welcome to Lineup Lab’s Best MLB Fantasy Lineup Today, where we feature our top players for our MLB Lineup Optimizer on Fanduel and Draftkings. Put your favorite stacks from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the MLB Player Lab.
Starting Pitchers
Aaron Nola
Opponent – Vs. PIT
Park – Citizens Bank Park
Vegas Favorite (PHI -115)
Vegas Total (8.5)
Boy oh boy, pitching is absolutely terrible tonight. The Nationals play earlier in the day and you can just chalk Strasburg in if you’re playing that slate. On the main slate, the 3 most expensive options are Tanaka, Stroman, and Nola. Stroman and Tanaka face off with each other and I don’t like them against either offense. That leaves us with Aaron Nola on the “high-end”. He’s not that expensive, but relative to the slate, I guess he is. Nola is a huge prospect for the Phillies and a guy they can rely on as a solid pitcher for a long time. He started out 2017 a bit cold, but it was expected after an injury. He’s now back to the old Aaron Nola we know and he’s hit 50 FanDuel points in each of his last 2 starts. He’ll face off against the Pirates, a team that doesn’t offer too much against righties. They’ve ranked 22nd in the league with a .311 wOBA and 20% strikeout rate. They move into Citizens Bank Park, which is a pretty neutral park with all things considered. Nola is striking out nearly 10 batters per 9 innings and the Pirates offer plenty of K’s. I will say nobody on this slate is safe and I personally think cash games are a bit tough on this slate. Let’s take a look at a cheaper, though riskier option.
Jharel Cotton
Opponent – Vs. CWS
Park – Oakland Coliseum
Vegas Favorite (OAK -125)
Vegas Total (9)
I know, yikes. If you have someone better, let me know when they were added to the slate. The said reality of tonight is we have no pitching. It’s something we have to work with and we can take comfort in knowing everyone is going through the same struggle. We’re going to look at Jharel Cotton, who faces the White Sox at home in the Oakland Coliseum. The Coliseum is a bottom 3 park for hitting and the A’s entire pitching staff is terrific at taking advantage. As for Cotton, in particular, he’s not a great pitcher. His true peripherals suggest a wOBA around .332 and a very average K rate. He does, however, face the White Sox. The Sox have ranked 27th in baseball against righties and have trouble getting the ball out in their own hitter-friendly park. Cotton is super cheap on both sites and he won’t have to do much to come through. Even if he allows 2 or 3 runs, the White Sox strikeout nearly 25% of the time, so I assume he’ll pick up a healthy share of those. All in all, this slate is very ugly from a pitching point of view and I don’t think Cotton is any riskier than anyone else.
Offensive Stacks
Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers (Martin Perez)
Park – Globe Life Park
The Red Sox have been in a lot of good spots lately, coming through in some and mightily disappointing in other. It’s also known as the nature of baseball. You never really know what can happen and at the end of the day, it can come down to the smallest factors. However, the Red Sox are once again in a great spot and we’ll go right back to the well. They move into Arlington and will hit in Globe Life Park, where fly balls go a far way. In summer, Globe Life has consistently ranked in the top 5 for hitting ballparks. They also face off with a classic DFS MLB pitcher, Martin Perez. Perez has sported a .356 wOBA against righties this year, but is actually getting a bit lucky. We can expect a wOBA around .380 at the end of the year and he’s also always struggled with the long ball (1.86 HR/9. righties seem to hit the ball out at a crazy rate and while the reason is a bit unknown, the proof is there in the numbers. Perez is a very boring lefty and he won’t intimidate a single batter from the get go. As for who to play on the Sox, they have a very strong 4 in Betts, Pedroia, Young, and Ramirez. That is easily my favorite stack, though I think Bogaerts is basically even with Pedroia. You can then go for a Jackie Bradley or Sam Travis, who hit lefties well and will see sub 10% ownership. The Red Sox aren’t implied to score as much as the team we’ll talk about next, but the upside is there and the ownership may not be. Fire away.
Main Stack – Chris Young, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia
Sneaky Stack – Chris Young, Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr.
Colorado Rockies Vs. Cincinnati Reds (Luis Castillo)
Park – Coors Field
I know, sneaky. I just couldn’t ignore the 6.88 implied run total coming out of Colorado. If you’re somehow unfamiliar and have been living under a rock for 20 years, Coors Field is a crazy boost for the offense(s). You will rarely see an over/under below 11 and tonight is included at 12. The ball flies in the air and also doesn;t break much from the hand, which leaves guys with a fastball and slider. When you’re leaning on 2 pitches in Coors Field, good luck. Luis Castillo is not ready for the majors and lets alone Coors Field. He’s struggled against both sides of the plate and didn’t show any extreme splits in the minor leagues. We do have some interesting injury news with the Rockies, so watch out. Both CarGo and Ian Desmond are questionable, so keep an eye out on Twitter and prepare accordingly. Charlie Blackmon is the easy choice and a guy you have to include in a Rockies stack. after that, go anywhere. LeMahieu, Arenado, and Reynolds are all in the top of the order and make a lot of sense in cash games. Whoever plays out of Cargo/Desmond is in play in both formats as well, as I doubt either return under 100%. Trevor Story has a ridiculous amount of upside and I’ll definitely have him in my tournament stacks. All in all, the Rockies are projected to put up 7 runs and if it happens, you can’t go wrong.
Main Stack – Charlie Blackmon, D.J. LeMahieu, Ian Desmond / Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado
Sneaky Stack – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Raimel Tapia, Mark Reynolds