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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations – Divisional Round

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

With Wild Card Weekend in the books, the NFL moves on to the Divisional Round of the playoffs this week. There will be some excellent offenses in action, which could set up for a high scoring weekend in DFS. Let’s discuss some players who stand out at each position based on their matchups. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our NFL Lineup Optimizer to help you build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

QUARTERBACKS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Divisional Round

Patrick Mahomes vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $7,000

The Chiefs couldn’t have asked for anything more from Mahomes this season. He not only brought them back to the playoffs in his first season as a starter, but he threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns. There were some concerns heading into the season that Mahomes could be prone to throwing interceptions, but that never really came to fruition as he finished with only 12 picks. He had the highest floor of any quarterback in DFS, throwing for at least two touchdown passes in all but two games. With the Chiefs running game still dealing with the loss of Kareem Hunt, their chances of advancing to the next round rest squarely on Mahomes’ shoulders. Look for him to come through with another productive outing.

Nick Foles vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $5,400

Foles and the Eagles are at it again. They went on the road last week and knocked off a tough Bears team, 16-15. Foles carried over his playoff success from last year, throwing for 266 yards and two touchdowns. Yes, he threw two interceptions, as well, but his overall stat line is still impressive considering his opponent. Now he’ll get to face a Saints team that tied for the third-most passing yards allowed per game (269) during the regular season. At this cheap price, rolling with Foles in tournament play is a viable option.

RUNNING BACKS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Divisional Round

Ezekiel Elliott vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $8,200

The Cowboys don’t have a great offense, but Elliott can cover up a lot of holes. He was the key to their win over the Seahawks last week, carrying the ball 26 times for 137 yards and a touchdown. He was also plenty busy in the passing game, catching four of five targets for an additional 32 yards. With at least 100 total yards in nine straight games, Elliott is a safe bet to be productive. The Rams’ defense has had their problems stopping the run and ended the regular season allowing the most yards-per-carry (5.1) in the league.

Marlon Mack vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,800

Andrew Luck grabs a lot of the headlines for the Colts, and rightfully so. His return to form is the main reason that they have been successful. However, Mack was just as important last week against the Texans, rushing for 148 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. He’s now logged at least 24 carries in three of their last four games, averaging 135.3 yards. He’s also had a nose for the end zone, scoring at least one touchdown in five straight contests. The Chiefs allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game (132.1) and tied for the third-most rushing touchdowns allowed (19) this year, setting up Mack with another opportunity to shine.

Darren Sproles vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $4,400

Oddly enough, Sproles received more carries than any other Eagles’ running back last week against the Bears. He turned his 13 carries into just 21 yards, but that workload says something about how the team views him within their offense. He was on the field for 56 percent of their offensive snaps, compared to 41 percent for Wendell Smallwood and one percent for Josh Adams. With how well the Saints have stopped the run this year, it’s hard to see any of their running backs rushing for a lot of yards. However, the Eagles might have to throw a lot to keep up with the Saints offense, so that game script would seem to favor Sproles. Even at this late stage of his career, he is still a dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield. If you’re looking for a cheap option in tournament play, Sproles has some upside.

WIDE RECEIVERS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Divisional Round

Michael Thomas vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $7,900

Overall, Thomas had a spectacular season with 125 receptions on 147 targets for 1,405 yards and nine touchdowns. However, a lot of his damage came early in the year. He was fairly quiet down the stretch, posting 49 yards or fewer in four of his last six contests. The Saints spread the ball around quite a bit, which sometimes didn’t leave Thomas with a ton of opportunities. With that being said, don’t let that shy you away from deploying him this week. The Eagles secondary is a mess and was torched by Allen Robinson for 10 receptions, 143 yards, and a touchdown last week. Nothing against Robinson, but he’s not in the same league as Thomas. The Eagles have their work cut out for them.

Alshon Jeffery vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,800

The return of Foles at quarterback has done wonders for Jeffery. Before Foles took over in Week 15, Jeffery only had two games all season with at least 80 receiving yards. However, with Foles at the helm, he reached that mark three times across four contests. Considering how banged up the Eagles’ defense is and how well the Saints play at home, there is a good chance that the Eagles are going to have to score a lot to keep this game close. That should lead to plenty of targets for Jeffery.

Dontrelle Inman vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,800

T.Y. Hilton stands out as by far the best receiving threat on the Colts. Behind him, they haven’t really had a consistent producer. Inman hasn’t received a ton of opportunities, but he enters this contest with a touchdown in each of his last three games. He received a total of 15 targets during that stretch and was on the field for 70 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps last week, highest among all other wide receivers behind Hilton. With how poorly the Chiefs’ defense has played, don’t overlook Inman if you need a cheap option in tournament play.

TIGHT ENDS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Divisional Round

Eric Ebron vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $5,500

Ebron was only on the field for 49 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps last week, but that didn’t stop him from catching another touchdown. Even though his yardage production has been hit-or-miss, he’s still a great option in DFS based on his touchdown production. This is about as juicy of a matchup as it gets against a Chiefs team that allowed 1,067 yards and 10 touchdowns to tight ends this year.

Rob Gronkowski vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,600

Are we seeing the demise of Gronk? He scored just three touchdowns during the regular season, marking the first time in his career where he scored fewer than eight touchdowns during a season in which he played at least 10 games. His 52.5 receiving yards per game was also the second-lowest mark of his career. His upside isn’t what it once was, but he’s still an important part of the Patriots’ offense. Ebron is the safe pick, but if you’re looking to save some even more money at tight end, Gronkowski is a viable option during such a limited slate.

DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Divisional Round

Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $3,000

The Rams defense can give up some points, but that doesn’t mean they are a bad option. They finished with 18 interceptions during the regular season, which tied for the third-most in the league. They also posted 41 sacks, led by star tackle Aaron Donald. The Cowboys are by no means an offensive juggernaut, even with one of the best running backs in the league on their team, setting up the Rams with the potential to be one of the better defensive plays of the weekend.

New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $2,600

The Chargers running back situation is concerning. Melvin Gordon has been banged up down the stretch and suffered another knee injury last week against the Ravens. He returned to that contest and is expected to play this week, but he might not be 100 percent healthy. Austin Ekeler was ineffective as he battled a groin injury last week, rushing 11 times for just 29 yards. Playing in Gillette Stadium in the playoffs is no easy task, so it’s hard to imagine this being one of the better offensive performances of the year from the Chargers.

Author Bio:

Mike has been covering fantasy sports since 2007, joining Lineup Lab in 2017. An avid player of both season-long fantasy leagues and DFS, Mike’s work has appeared on numerous sites, including RotoWire, SportsLine and Sports Illustrated. He’s also been featured on ESPN Radio and DraftKings’ nightly show, The Sweat.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 11 – Wide Receivers

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

Six teams are on a bye during Week 11, but none of them have as much of an impact on the wide receiver position for the main Sunday afternoon slate in DFS as the Packers, Chiefs, Rams, and Vikings all playing in prime time. There are still a lot of quality options, though, so let’s dig into the position to see which matchups stand out. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 11 - Wide Receivers

Michael Thomas vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,800

The Saints exploded for 51 points against the Bengals last week, so it’s no surprise that Thomas had a big game. He caught all eight of the targets thrown his way for 70 yards and two touchdowns. After scoring five touchdowns all last season, he already has seven through his first nine games. He also has an insane 89.7 percent catch rate, leaving him just 50 yards shy of reaching 1,000 yards for the third straight year.

The Eagles have only allowed 12 passing touchdowns this season, but they have allowed the 10th-most passing yards per game (266). Their secondary also received a significant blow when cornerback Ronald Darby was lost to a torn ACL. With the Saints firing on all cylinders offensively, they could put up plenty of points in a hurry in this contest. Thomas is tied for the league lead with 78 receptions, so expect him to have another great performance.

Julio Jones vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $8,500

There has never been any question about Jones’ workload with his 102 targets tied for the third-most in the league. He’s already posted 1,040 receiving yards, marking his fifth straight season with at least 1,000 yards. The only issue has been his incredible inability to score touchdowns. However, he finally found the end zone in Week 9, then followed that up with another score last week against the Browns.

If you’re just looking at the opponent, this does not stand out as a great matchup for Jones. The Cowboys have a good pass defense and have only allowed 12 touchdown receptions all season. However, Jones has such a heavy volume of passes thrown his way that it’s hard to slow him down. If he can continue to find his way into the end zone, the sky is the limit in terms of his value. Even if he doesn’t again Sunday, he still has a high enough floor to be worth considering in cash contests.

Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $8,500
DraftKings = $8,400

It’s been a frustrating season for Beckham and the Giants offense. He’s still put up some big yardage totals, but he entered Week 10 with just two touchdown receptions. A matchup against the 49ers turned out to be just what the doctored ordered with the Giants scoring 27 points and Beckham hauling in two scores. Even though he finished with four receptions for 73 yards, his day actually could have been even better since he had 11 targets.

A surprising as this may be, Beckham actually has as many targets as Jones does. Having Eli Manning as his quarterback is going to continue to limit his upside, but that doesn’t mean you should shy away from him at this lofty price. The Bucs have been horrible against the pass, allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (292) and the most passing touchdowns (23). As long as the Giants offensive line can keep Manning upright, he should look Beckham’s way enough to make him a safe option.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 11 - Wide Receivers

Alshon Jeffery vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $6,300

Jeffery had a quiet performance against the Cowboys last week with only four catches for 48 yards. On the bright side, he received eight targets and was on the field for 97 percent of their offensive snaps. New wide receiver Golden Tate wasn’t involved much in his debut with the team, only appearing on the field for 29 percent of their snaps. That number seems likely to rise as he gets more familiar with their offense, but it’s clear that Jeffery is still their top option at the position moving forward.

Tight end Zach Ertz will eat into Jeffery’s production from time to time, but Jeffery has four touchdowns in just six games and has a career-high 63.5 percent catch rate. The Eagles offense has had its struggles, but they will likely have to throw a lot Sunday to keep up with the Saints. That could lead to a banner performance from Jeffery since the Saints allow the second-most passing yards per game (296).

Kenny Golladay vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Ford Field
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $5,800

The trade of Tate to the Eagles opens up an even larger role for Golladay. He was great in Week 10 against the Bears, catching 6 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. Marvin Jones (knee) also had to depart that game early, which led Golladay to receive a season-high 13 targets. Golladay has now been on the field for 90 percent of the Lions offensive snaps his season, which is tops among their skill position players.

Jones is luckily just dealing with a bone bruise in his knee, but his status is still in question for this contest against the Panthers. If he can’t play, Golladay is going to be extremely busy. Even if Jones is able to take the field, Golladay is going to be heavily involved due to Tate no longer being in town. The Panthers have struggled in the secondary, allowing the second-most touchdown passes through the air (22).

Larry Fitzgerald vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $5,600

The first two games with Byron Leftwich as the Cardinals offensive coordinator has provided immediate dividends for Fitzgerald. After receiving 41 targets across seven games with Mike McCoy at the helm of their offense, Fitzgerald has received 22 targets over two games since. He’s made the most of his added opportunities, posting 14 receptions, 152 yards, and a touchdown.

Another encouraging sign for the Fitzgerald is that he was on the field for at least 96 percent of the Cardinals offensive snaps in the two weeks under Leftwich. He had logged no more than 87 percent of their offensive snaps in three of his previous four contests. The Raiders get virtually no pressure on opposing quarterbacks and have allowed 21 passing touchdowns, potentially setting up Fitzgerald for a big game.

Tre’Quan Smith vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $4,000

With the Saints putting up 51 points last week, it is surprising that Smith wasn’t even targeted once in that contest. He was on the field for 68 percent of their offensive snaps, which was more than any other wide receiver, including Michael Thomas (61 percent). Don’t expect him to out snap Thomas moving forward, but last week illustrates the potential that Smith could have if the Saints decided to throw more passes his way.

The Saints just signed Brandon Marshall to provide some depth at wide receiver, but Smith should still be their second best option at the position moving forward. His lack of targets is concerning, which is why you should only consider him in tournament play. However, if this game turns into a shootout, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Smith provide value at this dirt cheap price.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 11 - Wide Receivers

Mike Evans vs. New York Giants
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $7,300

It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Evans. He received 10 targets in Week 9, but only caught one pass for 16 yards. He managed to post 51 yards in Week 10 but caught only three of six targets. This brief rough stretch is especially surprising considering how well he played with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback to start the year. Don’t expect him to struggle like this for the remainder of the season, but this isn’t a good opportunity for him to turn things around against the Giants. They’ve dealt away a couple of their key defenders, but they still have cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who has helped them allow just 12 passing touchdowns this season. At this lofty price, Evans is awfully risky.

Tyrell Williams vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $4,800

After four touchdowns across his previous three games, Williams was finally shut out of the end zone by the Raiders in Week 10. He’s only received 36 targets all season, so a lot of his value depends on him scoring touchdowns. With Keenan Allen the top option at wide receiver for the Chargers and Melvin Gordon thriving in the backfield, don’t expect Williams to receive a significant jump in targets anytime soon, either.