We have an odd slate in the majors Thursday with mostly day games, including a couple that start at 12:10 PM EST. There are only two night games, so let’s dig into the entire slate and highlight some players with favorable matchups.
Read MoreMLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/31/18
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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STARTING PITCHERS
Trevor Bauer vs. Minnesota Twins
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $11,800
DraftKings = $13,300
Bauer dominated the Pirates in his last start, recording 10 strikeouts and allowing just five base runners over seven innings. It marked the fifth time this season he hasn’t allowed a run, helping lead to his career-best 2.32 ERA. His ERA hasn’t really been aided by luck, either, considering his 2.25 FIP and .312 opponents’ BABIP. Hitters have swung at 32.3% of pitches he has thrown outside of the strike zone, helping him post a lofty 11.7 K/9. The Twins lineup is even thinner after they traded Eduardo Escobar to the Diamondbacks and they could make more trades Tuesday. Bauer stands out as one of the premier starting pitching options on the slate.
James Shields vs. Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $7,200
DraftKings = $6,000
Shields hasn’t been terrible this season, but his 4.59 ERA and 1.30 WHIP aren’t exactly stellar. He doesn’t have an overpowering arsenal with a 6.8 K/9 and opponents’ have actually been somewhat unlucky with a .264 BABIP against him. This matchup does lean in his favor, though, considering his 3.51 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 13 starts at Guaranteed Rate Field. He also gets the benefit of facing a Royals lineup that has scored the fewest runs (384) in the league and just traded away one of their best hitters in Mike Moustakas. He won’t cost you much, leaving Shields with the potential to provide value in tournament play.
CATCHER/FIRST BASE
Jose Abreu vs. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $4,200
Abreu has had a disappointing season by his standards, but he’s closing out the month of July strong by hitting 10-for-28 (.357) with three home runs across his last seven games. Even with his down batting average overall, he still has a .357 wOBA against left-handed pitchers. In his career against Duffy, Abreu is 16-for-50 (.320) with two home runs.
Tucker Barnhart vs. Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = $3,800
Barnhart has logged a hit in each of his last seven starts, but he didn’t finish with multiple hits in any of those contests. His overall numbers aren’t anything special with a .252 batting average and a .371 slugging percentage, but he does have a .398 wOBA against lefties. At this cheap price, Barnhart might be worth the risk in tournament play.
Others to consider: Paul Goldschmidt (first base) and John Hicks (first base)
SECOND BASE
Rougned Odor vs. Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks
Stadium – Chase Field
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,900
Odor has completely turned his season around with a great month in July, batting .357 with six home runs, 12 RBI, and six steals. He still only has 10 home runs total, but his .268 average is a drastic improvement over his .206 mark in 2017. Godley allows a ton of baserunners with his 1.53 WHIP, so look for Odor to finish the month on a high note.
Neil Walker vs. Yefry Ramirez, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Yankee Stadium
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = $3,900
The Yankees brought in Walker to provide depth for their young infield, but he struggled out of the gate with his new team. Injuries have opened up regular playing time for him lately and he’s cashed in the opportunity, hitting 18-for-43 (.419) with 10 RBI and eight runs scored over his last 14 games. The Yankees are likely looking to acquire another hitter, but Walker should be in the lineup Tuesday. If you can’t pay up for Odor, Walker is an excellent cost-effective option with upside.
Others to consider: Jed Lowrie and Starlin Castro
THIRD BASE
Eugenio Suarez vs. Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $4,900
Suarez might not get a lot of press on a bad Reds team, but he’s mashing with a .298 batting average and a .383 OBP. He also has 24 home runs and 80 RBI and should easily set new career highs in both categories. He has an incredible 218 wRC+ against lefties and could give Boyd plenty of trouble in this game.
Eduardo Escobar vs. Bartolo Colon, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Chase Field
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,700
Colon has found a way to hang around, but he hasn’t pitched well with a 5.02 ERA and a 5.12 FIP. His 1.26 WHIP is largely aided by the fact that he doesn’t walk many batters, not because he doesn’t allow a lot of hits. He doesn’t miss many bats, either, with a 5.4% swinging-strike rate and a 5.2 K/9. The Diamondbacks will likely be a popular stack Tuesday, Escobar included.
Others to consider: Manny Machado and Miguel Andujar
SHORTSTOP
Didi Gregorius vs. Yefry Ramirez, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Yankee Stadium
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $4,900
Whenever the Yankees are playing at home, Gregorius vaults up towards the top-tier of shortstops in DFS. He is batting .240 with five home runs on the road, but he has a .283 average and 13 homers at Yankee Stadium. Add in his .351 wOBA against righties and Gregorius could provide plenty of value for your entry.
Chris Taylor vs. Wade Miley, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $4,200
Miley has a sparkling 2.01 ERA across five starts this year, but don’t get too excited based on his 3.97 FIP and 1.39 WHIP. He also has more walks (13) than he does strikeouts (12). He was a disaster for the Orioles last year with a 5.61 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP over 32 starts, so expect his ERA to climb sooner rather than later. Taylor is 13-for-45 (.289) with seven runs scored and nine RBI since the All-Star break, putting him on the map against Miley based on his reasonable prices on both sites.
Others to consider: Elvis Andrus and Jose Peraza
OUTFIELD
A.J. Pollock vs. Bartolo Colon, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Chase Field
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $5,200
Pollock didn’t cash in on a great matchup against Martin Perez on Monday, finishing the game 1-for-5. He’ll get a chance to redeem himself against another struggling pitcher in Colon. Pollock does have better numbers against lefties, but he’s hit righties well also with a .377 wOBA.
Avisail Garcia vs. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $4,500
Garcia has been injured for much of this season, which has been a major disappointment considering his excellent performance in 2017. Although his walk rate is a ridiculously low 1.7%, he’s hit .277 with 11 home runs in only 181 plate appearances. He has a .368 wOBA against lefties and has also had plenty of success against Duffy as he is 11-for-33 (.333) against him in his career.
Leonys Martin vs. Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,900
Bailey came off the DL last week and allowed only two runs over 6.2 innings against the Cardinals, striking out eight batters. It was a rare strong performance based on his 6.29 ERA and 1.63 WHIP overall. It was only the fourth time in 13 starts that he didn’t allow a home run and just the second time that he struck out more than four batters in a game. Don’t shy away from stacking against him because of one good outing, he’s still not a good pitcher at this stage of his career. The Tigers might not have a lot of great hitters, but Martin stands out based on his .340 wOBA against righties this year.
Others to consider: Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun
MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/4/18
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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There are games spread throughout the day Wednesday, but let’s focus on the main evening slate in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
STARTING PITCHERS
Trevor Bauer vs. Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Kauffman Stadium
FanDuel = $12,000
DraftKings = $13,600
Bauer might not get as much publicity as his teammate Corey Kluber does, but Bauer has been just as impressive this season. After never finishing with an ERA below 4.19, Bauer has a 2.45 ERA that is supported by his 2.19 FIP. He’s done an excellent job limiting baserunners with a 1.09 WHIP and has allowed only five home runs in 113.2 innings. His 13.2% swinging-strike rate and 11.7 K/9 are both career-highs as well. The Royals have scored the fewest runs (295) in baseball, leaving Bauer as one of the best starters available Wednesday.
Rich Hill vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $7,600
DraftKings = $8,700
Hill struggled at the start of the season, then missed some time with a blister issue. He’s only made nine starts, three of which have come after he was activated from the DL. He pitched well in two of those outings, holding the Cubs and Rockies to a combined one run in 12.2 innings. He also had 16 strikeouts, helping boost his K/9 for the season to 9.8. Although he wasn’t a big strikeout pitcher early in his career, he’s finished with a K/9 of at least 10.5 in five straight seasons. With his blister issue hopefully behind him, Hill is a cost-effective option with upside in tournament play.
CATCHER/FIRST BASE
Justin Smoak vs. Corey Oswalt, New York Mets
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,100
Oswalt has been hit hard in 10 starts at Triple-A this year, resulting in a 5.32 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He made his first start for the Mets last week against the Marlins and was hammered for six runs in 2.2 innings. The Marlins are tied for the fewest home runs (68) in baseball but took Oswalt deep twice in that game. Smoak has a higher batting average against lefties this year, but his wOBA splits are pretty close and eight of his 11 home runs have come off of righties.
Yasmani Grandal vs. Clay Holmes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $4,000
Grandal only hit .162 in June, but he also had a crazy low .170 BABIP during the month. He has started to turn things around in this series against the Pirates, going 4-for-6 with a double, triple and a home run in the first two games. He has a .361 wOBA against righties this year overall, making him a viable option against Holmes, who is making his first career start in the majors.
Others to consider: Yonder Alonso (first base) and Matt Davidson (first base)
SECOND BASE
Max Muncy vs. Clay Holmes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $4,900
At this point, you almost just have to ride Muncy every day in DFS. He homered twice Tuesday and is now 14-for-37 (.378) with seven home runs in his last 11 games. He incredibly has 20 home runs in only 231 plate appearances. With a .440 wOBA against righties, don’t expect Holmes to be the one to slow him down. Of note, Muncy is only eligible at second base on FanDuel as he is listed at first base and third base on DraftKings.
Yoan Moncada vs. Sal Romano, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,400
Moncada has yet to take off after being one of the most highly regarded prospects in the minors as he is batting only .229 with a .296 OBP. He has struck out a staggering 120 times while drawing only 29 walks, so he needs to show significant improvement with his pitch selection. He only has a 22 wRC+ against lefties but has been much better against righties with a 115 wRC+. Romano is prone to giving up a lot of runs due to his 1.49 WHIP, making Moncada a viable option if you don’t want to pay up for Muncy.
Others to consider: DJ LeMahieu and Scooter Gennett
THIRD BASE
Nolan Arenado vs. Andrew Suarez, San Francisco Giants
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $5,100
DraftKings = $5,800
Arenado is an excellent hitter, but he vaults to the top of DFS consideration whenever he is playing at home against a left-handed pitcher. Arenado is batting .367 with 13 home runs at Coors Field and has mashed lefties to the tune of a 249 wRC+ this year.
Yolmer Sanchez vs. Sal Romano, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $4,200
Sanchez might not be a player who stands out, but he is 11-for-37 (.297) with a home run and two doubles in his last eight games. He doesn’t have a lot of power with just five homers, but he does have 15 doubles and nine triples to go along with a .257 average. Like Moncada, he struggles against lefties but is much better against righties. His upside isn’t anywhere near Arenado’s, but his cheap price makes him someone to consider against Romano.
Others to consider: Jose Ramirez and Yangervis Solarte
SHORTSTOP
Francisco Lindor vs. Trevor Oaks, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Kauffman Stadium
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $5,900
Lindor ended his streak of three-straight games with a home run Tuesday, but he still finished with his fourth multi-hit game in his last five contests. He scored yet another run too, bringing him up to 74 runs scored this season. Oaks had a 2.00 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP at Triple-A this season, but his 5.3 K/9 doesn’t translate well for his potential success in the majors. In the only start he has made for the Royals, Oaks allowed five runs and 12 hits in five innings to the White Sox.
Jose Peraza vs. Dylan Covey, Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,700
Peraza had only four home runs in 143 games last year and while he already has three this season, he’s still not someone who is going to provide home run upside. However, he is swinging a hot bat right now, hitting 12-for-34 (.353) across his last eight games. Covey has an ugly 1.59 WHIP and doesn’t have overpowering stuff with a 6.9 K/9, making Peraza a strong secondary option at shortstop.
Others to consider: Trevor Story and Chris Taylor
OUTFIELD
Joc Pederson vs. Clay Holmes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,500
Pederson was a major disappointment for the Dodgers last year, hitting only .212 with 11 home runs in 323 plate appearances. This season has been a different story as he is batting .266 with 13 home runs in 231 plate appearances. He’s been leading off against right-handed pitchers, so expect him to occupy that position against Holmes on Wednesday. He’s gone deep in back-to-back games and has a .418 wOBA against righties this year.
Avisail Garcia vs. Sal Romano, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $4,200
News came out Tuesday that Garcia with dealing with a slight hamstring issue, but that didn’t stop him from playing and hitting two home runs. He now has six home runs in 12 games since being activated from the DL. Romano has been hit just as hard by right-handed hitters as he has by lefties this year, so don’t hesitate to ride Garcia’s hot streak if he’s in the lineup again.
Curtis Granderson vs. Corey Oswalt, New York Mets
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $4,000
Granderson doesn’t play much against lefties anymore, which makes a lot of sense considering he only has a .210 wOBA against them this year. He’s still a potent bat against righties, though, with a .375 wOBA. With Oswalt’s struggles already detailed, Granderson could provide significant value at this cheap price and is an excellent option in tournament play.
Others to consider: Scott Schebler and Teoscar Hernandez
MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/29/18
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
June special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout
After a quiet Thursday, Friday brings a full slate of 15 games in the majors. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
STARTING PITCHERS
Jacob deGrom vs. Miami Marlins
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $11,700
DraftKings = $13,600
This is the premier pitching matchup to target for your entry. The Mets season has been a disappointment, but deGrom has been spectacular with a 1.69 ERA, 2.14 FIP, and a 1.01 WHIP. He’s always provided plenty of strikeouts, but he currently has career-highs in both swinging-strike rate (15.2%) and strikeout rate (31.4%). When hitters do actually make contact, they haven’t squared him up with a 27.8% hard-hit rate and only five home runs in 101.1 innings. The Marlins have one of the worst lineups in baseball, leaving deGrom with tremendous upside.
Marco Gonzales vs. Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $7,800
Gonzales had a daunting two-start week last week, facing both the Red Sox and Yankees on the road. He understandably struggled, allowing 11 runs in 12.1 innings. Before those bad outings, he had allowed three runs or fewer in six straight starts. He’s not a great source for strikeouts, but he’s shown excellent control by throwing a first-pitch strike to 67.6% of the hitters that he has faced and allowing just 2.0 BB/9. The Royals have scored the fewest runs (283) in baseball, leaving Gonzales with upside in tournament play despite his lack of strikeout potential.
CATCHER/FIRST BASE
Jesus Aguilar vs. Sal Romano, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $5,200
Aguilar went deep again Thursday, marking his third straight game with a home run. He is absolutely on fire right now, hitting 16-for-36 (.444) with nine home runs and three doubles in his last 11 games. Even with Eric Thames healthy, the Brewers are not going to take Aguilar out of their lineup. Romano has allowed 1.5 HR/9 and plenty of base runners with a 1.47 WHIP, potentially setting Aguilar up for another big performance.
Yonder Alonso vs. Paul Blackburn, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $3,600
After a series in St. Louis without the DH limited Alonso’s playing time, the Indians return to American League play Friday. You want to avoid playing Alonso against lefties, but he’s a great option against righties since he has a .352 wOBA against them this season. Blackburn allows a ton of baserunners and doesn’t have strikeout stuff, so Alonso is a cheap option with upside if you don’t want to pay up for Aguilar.
Others to consider: Jose Abreu (first base) and Tucker Barnhart (catcher)
SECOND BASE
Dee Gordon vs. Ian Kennedy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,300
Gordon continues to hit for a high average and is 24-for-73 (.329) in his last 16 games. He provides close to nothing in terms of power, but he did score 11 runs over that stretch. Kennedy is having another bad season with a 5.09 ERA and allows plenty of base runners with a 1.45 WHIP, leaving Gordon as someone to consider despite his lack of home run potential.
Yoan Moncada vs. Yovani Gallardo, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,500
Gallardo hasn’t finished with an ERA below 5.42 since 2015. He’s only made two starts for the Rangers and didn’t pitch well in either of them, allowing nine runs and 17 total base runners in 10.1 innings. He also allowed three home runs after posting a 1.7 HR/9 with the Mariners last year. Moncada only has a .199 wOBA against left-handed pitchers, but he’s been much better against righties with a .336 wOBA.
Others to consider: Scooter Gennett and Jason Kipnis
THIRD BASE
Jose Ramirez vs. Paul Blackburn, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $5,400
Considering Blackburn has an 8.83 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP, the Indians could be one of the most popular stacking plays Friday. Ramirez has not only been one of the best hitters on the team this season, but he’s been one of the best hitters in all of baseball by batting .291 with 23 home runs, 52 RBI, 55 runs scored and 13 steals.
Justin Turner vs. Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $3,900
Turner is showing signs of getting his power stroke back, slugging two home runs in his last five games. He’s had a slow start in general since returning from a wrist injury but is 6-for-15 (.400) during that same five-game stretch. Turner not only has a .436 wOBA against lefties this year, but he is 10-for-18 with a home run and three doubles against Anderson in his career.
Others to consider: Matt Carpenter and Adrian Beltre
SHORTSTOP
Francisco Lindor vs. Paul Blackburn, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $5,300
Lindor had a rough series against the Cardinals, finishing 1-for-12 with one walk. He had homered in three straight games before the series began and is having the best power season of his career with a .539 slugging percentage. He’s still hitting for average as well at .288, so look for him to get back on track facing a much easier opponent Friday.
Kike Hernandez vs. Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,500
Even though Chris Taylor returned from a hamstring injury Thursday, the Dodgers still found a way to keep Hernandez in their lineup. He rewarded them with two hits and two RBI and is now 19-for-55 (.345) with six home runs, 12 RBI and 14 runs scored in his last 16 games. With a .359 wOBA against lefties, expect the Dodgers to start him against Anderson.
Others to consider: Jean Segura and Tim Anderson
OUTFIELD
Nelson Cruz vs. Ian Kennedy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $4,800
Kennedy has allowed at least 31 home runs in each of the last three seasons and is on pace to do that again this year with 15 home runs allowed in 86.2 innings. That plays right into Cruz’s wheelhouse as he already has 21 homers this year and has slugged at least 39 home runs in each of the last four seasons.
Rhys Hoskins vs. Erick Fedde, Washington Nationals
Stadium – Citizens Bank Park
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,900
Hoskins couldn’t buy a hit in May, batting only .161 with two home runs in the month. Hoskins then fractured his jaw after fouling off a pitch at the end of the month, forcing him to hit the DL. He came back quickly and has found his stroke again, batting .329 with seven home runs and 20 RBI in 18 games. Fedde has a 5.32 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in four starts this season and is really only in the starting rotation due to injuries to Stephen Strasburg and Jeremy Hellickson.
Avisail Garcia vs. Yovani Gallardo, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,400
DraftKings = $3,600
The White Sox struggle to score runs, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t look to stack them against Gallardo based on how poorly he has been pitching. Garcia was one of the prime regression candidates at the start of the season as his .338 average last year was largely aided by an unsustainable .392 BABIP. Injuries have limited him to 104 plate appearances, but he has two home runs during his current five-game hitting streak and is worth the risk at this cheap price.
Others to consider: Shin-Soo Choo and Nomar Mazara
Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends
*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*
Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends
Advanced stats are important in any sport, but they have especially changed the way we look at baseball. One important advanced stat to consider when drafting your fantasy baseball squad is batting average on balls in play, also known a BABIP.
As defined by BaseballReference.com, BABIP, “measures what happens when the player puts the ball in play on the field.” The formula to calculate BABIP is (H-HR)/ (AB – SO – HR + SF).
In 2017, the league average batting average was .255. Historically, the league average BABIP is usually right around .300. Now, that doesn’t mean just because a hitter has a BABIP above or below .300 that they are in line for a correction in 2018. You want to compare their BABIP more with their career marks and also consider their skill sets. For example, a fast runner who hits a lot of ground balls could have a high BABIP simply because they are able to leg out base hits that other runners with normal speed would not be able to.
It is also important to consider the type of contact that a player is making, whether they hit a lot of fly balls or line drives. A player who hits more hard line drives can have a high BABIP because the fielders could have a more difficult time reaching the ball to record an out. A player who hits a lot of weak fly balls is going to have a lower BABIP because they aren’t leaving themselves with a great opportunity to reach base.
All of that being said, let’s take a look at a few players who had an abnormally high or low BABIP last season and discuss how to project their batting averages for this season.
Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox
Garcia not only hit a career-high .330 last season, but it left him with the third-highest batting averaging in the league behind Jose Altuve and Charlie Blackmon. That’s some pretty impressive company. However, Garcia is a career .277 hitter, which is an immediate red flag.
A closer look at Garcia’s numbers shows he had a .392 BABIP last year, which was the highest in baseball. That screams candidate for regression, especially when you consider his career BABIP is just .340. Garcia even struck out less last year with a 19.8% strikeout percentage, which is almost three percent lower than his career average. His line drive percentage was 24%, which was spot on with his career mark.
He is still a talented young player who could have a valuable fantasy season, but make sure you aren’t drafting him with the expectation that he will hit for that high of an average again this year.
Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
Zimmerman has played in over 1,500 career games, which gives us an example sample size to work off of. After dealing with injuries the last few seasons, Zimmerman was able to largely stay healthy in 2017 and played in 144 games. He finished with a career-high 36 home runs and recorded at least 100 RBI for the third time in his career. He had a sparkling .303 batting average, which was especially high considering he hasn’t batted above .280 since 2012.
However, a lot of his success can be attributed to his performance in the first half of the season when he batted .345. It’s no coincidence that he had an extremely high BABIP of .364 during that same time frame. His career BABIP is .311, so it made much more sense that he had a BABIP of .306 during the second half of the season. While the decline in BABIP, Zimmerman’s batting average was just .269 in the second half.
Health is always a major concern if you are drafting Zimmerman, but remember that his excessively high BABIP in the first half led to an inflated batting average for the season overall.
Zack Cozart, Los Angeles Angels
Cozart is the only player on this list to change teams this winter as he signed with the Angeles after playing his entire career with the Cincinnati Reds. Cozart had the best season of his career in 2017, hitting .297 with 24 home runs, 63 RBI and 80 runs scored. He was able to cash that in for a three-year, $38 million contract. With how slow the market has moved this winter, that was a significant deal.
Another alarm should go off with Cozart though as he is only a career .254 hitter. He did most of his damage in the first half, batting .316 with a .358 BABIP. To put that into perspective, his career BABIP is only .280. He experienced a significant regression in the second half, batting just .272 with a .252 BABIP.
Cozart did drastically improve his walk percentage to 12.2% last season, but his 26% line drive percentage was actually two percent lower than both of the previous two seasons. Buyer beware if you are drafting him based on his batting average last season.
Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
Betts was one of the hottest names in fantasy baseball heading into last year after hitting .318 with 31 home runs, 113 RBI, 122 runs scored and 26 steals in 2016. Even though the Red Sox offense as a whole took a step backward in 2017, Betts still had great counting stats with 24 home runs, 102 RBI, 101 runs scored and 26 stolen bases.
Betts couldn’t completely deliver on his lofty fantasy expectations though because he batted only .264 for the season. His strikeout percentage, groundball to fly ball ratio and line drive percentage were all almost right on par with his career averages. The big difference is he had only a .268 BABIP last year after never finishing with one below .310 in his career. It was low throughout the season, showing very little improvement in the second half.
Betts has an extremely high upside in fantasy and could have just had one of those “unlucky” seasons in terms of his BABIP considering his career numbers. Expect improvement in the batting average department from him this year.
Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
Machado is also one of the most coveted offense players in fantasy. Not only has he developed into a premier power hitter, but he had hit at least .278 in four straight seasons leading into 2017. Although he stole 20 bases in 2015, he has only stolen nine total bases in two seasons since.
Machado saw a significant decline in his batting average in 2017, finishing the season hitting just .259. Much of that can be attributed to a horrid first half where he batted just .230 in large part due to his .230 BABIP. He has a career .301 BABIP, so it’s no surprise that he improved to a .290 BABIP in the second half of the season. He batted .290 over that same stretch.
Machado will be dealing with a position change this year, moving from third base to his natural position at shortstop. However, one constant that should return this year with a normal BABIP is his high batting average.
Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers
Odor has become one of the premier power-hitting second basemen in baseball, slugging at least 30 home runs in back-to-back seasons. He does not do a great job getting on base though with only a 4.2% walk percentage. He has logged 1,212 at-bats in the last two seasons but has only walked 51 times. His swinging strikes percentage has increased in each season of his career, topping out at 20.8% in 2017.
While he doesn’t walk much, Odor had a batting average of at least .259 in each of his first three seasons. He struggled mightily in that department last year, batting just .204. Much of that can be attributed to his .224 BABIP, which was almost 60 points lower than any previous season of his career. His inability to get on base limits his fantasy value, but it’s highly unlikely that he will hit just over .200 again this season.