*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*
Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends
Advanced stats are important in any sport, but they have especially changed the way we look at baseball. One important advanced stat to consider when drafting your fantasy baseball squad is batting average on balls in play, also known a BABIP.
As defined by BaseballReference.com, BABIP, “measures what happens when the player puts the ball in play on the field.” The formula to calculate BABIP is (H-HR)/ (AB – SO – HR + SF).
In 2017, the league average batting average was .255. Historically, the league average BABIP is usually right around .300. Now, that doesn’t mean just because a hitter has a BABIP above or below .300 that they are in line for a correction in 2018. You want to compare their BABIP more with their career marks and also consider their skill sets. For example, a fast runner who hits a lot of ground balls could have a high BABIP simply because they are able to leg out base hits that other runners with normal speed would not be able to.
It is also important to consider the type of contact that a player is making, whether they hit a lot of fly balls or line drives. A player who hits more hard line drives can have a high BABIP because the fielders could have a more difficult time reaching the ball to record an out. A player who hits a lot of weak fly balls is going to have a lower BABIP because they aren’t leaving themselves with a great opportunity to reach base.
All of that being said, let’s take a look at a few players who had an abnormally high or low BABIP last season and discuss how to project their batting averages for this season.
Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox
Garcia not only hit a career-high .330 last season, but it left him with the third-highest batting averaging in the league behind Jose Altuve and Charlie Blackmon. That’s some pretty impressive company. However, Garcia is a career .277 hitter, which is an immediate red flag.
A closer look at Garcia’s numbers shows he had a .392 BABIP last year, which was the highest in baseball. That screams candidate for regression, especially when you consider his career BABIP is just .340. Garcia even struck out less last year with a 19.8% strikeout percentage, which is almost three percent lower than his career average. His line drive percentage was 24%, which was spot on with his career mark.
He is still a talented young player who could have a valuable fantasy season, but make sure you aren’t drafting him with the expectation that he will hit for that high of an average again this year.
Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
Zimmerman has played in over 1,500 career games, which gives us an example sample size to work off of. After dealing with injuries the last few seasons, Zimmerman was able to largely stay healthy in 2017 and played in 144 games. He finished with a career-high 36 home runs and recorded at least 100 RBI for the third time in his career. He had a sparkling .303 batting average, which was especially high considering he hasn’t batted above .280 since 2012.
However, a lot of his success can be attributed to his performance in the first half of the season when he batted .345. It’s no coincidence that he had an extremely high BABIP of .364 during that same time frame. His career BABIP is .311, so it made much more sense that he had a BABIP of .306 during the second half of the season. While the decline in BABIP, Zimmerman’s batting average was just .269 in the second half.
Health is always a major concern if you are drafting Zimmerman, but remember that his excessively high BABIP in the first half led to an inflated batting average for the season overall.
Zack Cozart, Los Angeles Angels
Cozart is the only player on this list to change teams this winter as he signed with the Angeles after playing his entire career with the Cincinnati Reds. Cozart had the best season of his career in 2017, hitting .297 with 24 home runs, 63 RBI and 80 runs scored. He was able to cash that in for a three-year, $38 million contract. With how slow the market has moved this winter, that was a significant deal.
Another alarm should go off with Cozart though as he is only a career .254 hitter. He did most of his damage in the first half, batting .316 with a .358 BABIP. To put that into perspective, his career BABIP is only .280. He experienced a significant regression in the second half, batting just .272 with a .252 BABIP.
Cozart did drastically improve his walk percentage to 12.2% last season, but his 26% line drive percentage was actually two percent lower than both of the previous two seasons. Buyer beware if you are drafting him based on his batting average last season.
Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
Betts was one of the hottest names in fantasy baseball heading into last year after hitting .318 with 31 home runs, 113 RBI, 122 runs scored and 26 steals in 2016. Even though the Red Sox offense as a whole took a step backward in 2017, Betts still had great counting stats with 24 home runs, 102 RBI, 101 runs scored and 26 stolen bases.
Betts couldn’t completely deliver on his lofty fantasy expectations though because he batted only .264 for the season. His strikeout percentage, groundball to fly ball ratio and line drive percentage were all almost right on par with his career averages. The big difference is he had only a .268 BABIP last year after never finishing with one below .310 in his career. It was low throughout the season, showing very little improvement in the second half.
Betts has an extremely high upside in fantasy and could have just had one of those “unlucky” seasons in terms of his BABIP considering his career numbers. Expect improvement in the batting average department from him this year.
Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
Machado is also one of the most coveted offense players in fantasy. Not only has he developed into a premier power hitter, but he had hit at least .278 in four straight seasons leading into 2017. Although he stole 20 bases in 2015, he has only stolen nine total bases in two seasons since.
Machado saw a significant decline in his batting average in 2017, finishing the season hitting just .259. Much of that can be attributed to a horrid first half where he batted just .230 in large part due to his .230 BABIP. He has a career .301 BABIP, so it’s no surprise that he improved to a .290 BABIP in the second half of the season. He batted .290 over that same stretch.
Machado will be dealing with a position change this year, moving from third base to his natural position at shortstop. However, one constant that should return this year with a normal BABIP is his high batting average.
Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers
Odor has become one of the premier power-hitting second basemen in baseball, slugging at least 30 home runs in back-to-back seasons. He does not do a great job getting on base though with only a 4.2% walk percentage. He has logged 1,212 at-bats in the last two seasons but has only walked 51 times. His swinging strikes percentage has increased in each season of his career, topping out at 20.8% in 2017.
While he doesn’t walk much, Odor had a batting average of at least .259 in each of his first three seasons. He struggled mightily in that department last year, batting just .204. Much of that can be attributed to his .224 BABIP, which was almost 60 points lower than any previous season of his career. His inability to get on base limits his fantasy value, but it’s highly unlikely that he will hit just over .200 again this season.
