Header Image - PICK LIKE THE PROS
PICK LIKE THE PROSLineup Lab is an advanced MLB, NBA, NFL, and NHL daily fantasy lineup optimizer for Fanduel, Draftkings, and Yahoo. Pros use a DFS optimizer, so why don't you? Pick like the pros. Use the worlds most advanced projections and optimization techniques. Join today, and start winning!
start winning

Tag Archives

4 Articles

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 – Quarterbacks

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

There are only two teams on byes for Week 5, leaving plenty of options to choose from for your DFS entry. Let’s examine some quarterbacks to target and avoid as you craft your lineup. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 - Quarterbacks

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $6,900

Roethlisberger entered Week 4 having thrown for at least 335 yards in each of the first three games this year. He also had six touchdown passes combined over the last two weeks. While he wasn’t terrible Sunday against the Ravens, it was a subpar performance by his standards with only 274 passing yards and a touchdown. Although he finished with only a 57.5% completion percentage, his 47 pass attempts marked the third time he has attempted at least 40 passes in a game in the early going.

Week 5 brings a stellar matchup for Roethlisberger against a Falcons defense that has been decimated by injuries out of the gate. The Falcons have allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game (284) and have only recorded three interceptions. Teams have had no problems finding the end zone against them, in general, as they have allowed 30.5 points per game. This could be a high-scoring game considering the Steelers have plenty of their own defensive liabilities, leaving Roethlisberger with an extremely high floor.

Matt Ryan vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $8,300
DraftKings = $6,600

Ryan has come out firing to start the season, averaging a career-high 329 passing yards per contest. After recording only 20 touchdown passes in 2017, he already has 10 through the first four weeks. All of those touchdowns have actually come across the last three games since he was shut out against the Eagles in Week 1. It should be noted that was also the only game that he has played on the road this season, which is where they will be playing Sunday after three straight home games.

The addition of Calvin Ridley has been a big boost for Ryan as he adds another weapon who has shown a knack for scoring touchdowns in his rookie season. Julio Jones is still looking for his first score of the year, but he has an insane 502 receiving yards already. The dynamic duo, along with the reliable Mohamed Sanu, causes plenty of problems for opposing defenses. The Steelers defense has been even worse than the Falcons, allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (305) in the league.

Philip Rivers vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $8,200
DraftKings = $6,700

Rivers went off for 424 passing yards Week 1 against the Chiefs, but he hasn’t topped 256 passing yards in a game since. The good news is that hasn’t stopped him from being a reliable contributor in DFS because he has thrown at least two touchdown passes in all four games this season. Turnovers have plagued him a few times in his career, but he’s only been picked off twice so far.

There are a lot of big names at the quarterback position and Rivers hasn’t had a lot of success in the playoffs, so he sometimes doesn’t get the recognition that he deserves. He has recorded at least 4,286 passing yards and 28 touchdown passes in five straight seasons and hasn’t thrown fewer than 25 touchdowns in a year since 2007. The Raiders have had a hard time generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so expect Rivers to come through with another valuable performance.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 - Quarterbacks

Andy Dalton vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $5,900

Talk about a turnaround for Dalton. He averaged only 207.5 passing yards per game last year and posted a 59.9% completion percentage that was his lowest mark since his rookie season.  The first four weeks have brought completely different results as he is averaging 299.3 passing yards per game and has a 65.6% completion percentage. Although he did have one ugly four-interception performance, he has logged at least two touchdown passes in all four contests.

One of the big reasons for Dalton’s improved numbers has been the emergence of Tyler Boyd, who is finally healthy and putting up big numbers. His performance has also helped take some of the pressure off of A.J. Green as opposing defenses finally have another receiver to worry about. The Dolphins do have the most interceptions (nine) in the league, but they have also allowed the seventh-most passing yards per contest (285). I wouldn’t be surprised if Dalton throws at least one pick in this game, but he should produce enough across the board to be worth considering in tournament play.

Joe Flacco vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $7,200
DraftKings = $5,400

The Ravens had an eye towards the future during the 2018 Draft, selecting quarterback Lamar Jackson to hopefully be their successor to Flacco. It certainly made sense for them to select a young quarterback since Flacco was coming off of a season where he averaged 196.3 passing yards per game and had 18 touchdowns compared to 13 interceptions. It should be noted, though, that Flacco didn’t exactly have great weapons around him. The addition of Michael Crabtree and a healthy John Brown have helped Flacco show he still has some gas left in the tank, resulting in him averaging 313 passing yards per game and throwing eight touchdowns across the first four weeks.

Flacco’s improved play has been one of the main reasons why the Ravens are off to a 3-1 start despite the fact that they are averaging a league-low 3.1 yards-per-carry. It’s not as if they have shied away from running the ball, either, as they are actually tied for the fourth-most rushing attempts (114). Flacco will lead his team into this road game against Browns, who have allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game (276) and just allowed Derek Carr to throw for 437 yards and four touchdowns in Week 4.

Blake Bortles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,000
DraftKings = $5,500

If you’ve rostered Bortles in DFS this season, it’s been a hit-or-miss proposition. In weeks one and three, he threw for a combined 331 yards and one touchdown. In weeks two and four, he threw for 764 yards and six touchdowns. Week 4 brought his most efficient game of the year as he completed 76.3% of his passes against the Jets, which is a sharp contrast from his 54.6% completion percentage Week 1 against the Giants.

The Jaguars will be forced to lean on Bortles more heavily again this week after Leonard Fournette reaggravated his hamstring injury and will be forced back to the sidelines. The Jaguars have a stout defense, but they face a tough task in slowing down the Chiefs’ high-powered offense. Bortles might be forced to throw the ball a lot to keep pace, especially if they can’t get their running game working without Fournette. His inconsistency certainly makes him a risky play, but I think it’s a risk worth taking based on the Chiefs allowing the second-most passing yards (329) per game.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 - Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – CenturyLink Field
FanDuel = $7,200
DraftKings = $5,100

Wilson came through with 298 passing yards and three touchdowns Week 1, but it’s been all downhill for him since. He hasn’t topped 200 passing yards in either of the last two weeks and failed to a throw a touchdown Sunday against the Cardinals. The Seahawks have had an inconsistent running attack and Doug Baldwin is still working his way back to being completely healthy after suffering a knee injury, which certainly hasn’t helped Wilson’s cause. The Rams are missing Aqib Talib at cornerback, but they have a ton of talent on defense, which is going to limit Wilson’s upside.

Baker Mayfield vs. Baltimore Ravens
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $7,100
DraftKings = $5,300

Mayfield didn’t exactly have ideal conditions for the first start of his career having to play on the road on the West Coast. He came through with 295 passing yards and two touchdowns, but he also had two interceptions and lost two fumbles. There is no question that Mayfield has a ton of talent, but he’s going to have growing pains as he gets acclimated to the NFL. This is not a good matchup for him against a Ravens defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (193) and also gets cornerback Jimmy Smith back from a four-game suspension.

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots


 

We’ve arrived at the Conference Championships and are down to four teams fighting for a chance to hoist the Lombardi trophy. For Brady, it’s just another ordinary January, but for the rest, this is a chance to put their stamp on a franchise that took a chance on them when no other team in the NFL would.

Unfortunately Championship weekend also signals the end of the DFS football season until late August. I’m assuming Draftkings will continue to run out single-game slates, but I haven’t played those, so I’m not sure if I’ll be playing. Because there are only two games this week, I’m going to run through my write up a little differently. Opposed to going position by position, I’ll break down both championship games and write off my favorite plays for the games. But before I do that, I wanted to go over some strategies I like to employ when playing only two game slates.

I’ve had some pretty good success over the past two season with the two-game prime time slates. They’re entertaining because you’re able to keep a close eye on each game and every play matters. Ownership is easier to predict, and the focus should be more on getting the best players into your lineup opposed to finding players with low ownership. Sure if you want to fire away multi-entries in the $4 Final Four with $400K + entries you can get crazy with playing a less than 10% owned player, but that’s not the ideal strategy for two-game slates.

The key to playing two-game slates is trying to figure out what the game flow of each game is going to be. We usually use Vegas lines to give us an idea of how the experts think the game will play out, but for two games slates, we need to combine that with our opinions of how the game script is going to go. You should always take a stance on whether you think a game total is too high or too low, but it’s important to set your lineup up with positive correlation to ensure you get the most out of your lineup.

You’ll see a lot of lineups this weekend with game stacks and even team stacks. We’ll likely see several lineups with people rostering all of the offensive Patriots and bringing it back with some Jaguars in hopes of accumulating all of the points in that game. The best way to do that is by running through the game script scenarios:

I.e., If the Patriots score 28 points, I think Brady will account for 3 touchdowns and their running back [Lewis, Burkhead, White] will account for the 4th touchdown. If the Pats score early, that opens up the passing defense to play Prevent Defense, which creates throwing lanes over the middle for Bortles. That’s a general idea of how I generate game stacks; the tricky part is finding which players have the highest touchdown equity and playing them in your lineups. I’ll do my best to break down how I see these two games playing out, but you should come up with your theory of the games this week and play lineups accordingly.

Jaguars (19.5) at Patriots (27) | NE [-9] | Over/Under 46.5

New England Patriots (27)

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

* News *

T. Brady – limited on Thursday (hand) – expected to play
R. Burkhead – limited on Thursday (knee) – expected to play

For the second consecutive week, the Patriots have the best Vegas numbers of all the teams on the slate. They are the largest favorites (-7), have the highest implied total (27), and have the highest game total (46.6). The difference from last week is that the Pats are not going up against the mediocre Titans defense again. They are going up against the Jags who ranked fourth DVOA in total defense, and first in passing defense, per Football Outsiders.

The Jags are coming off of a week where they allowed the Steelers to put up 42 points and 545 total yards (462 pass, 83 rush). That is only the second time the Jags defense has allowed more than 40 points this season (44 to 49ers and 42 to Steelers). While this defense is far from one that offense would like to face, they are far from unbeatable.

A very detailed article by Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis broke down the secret to beating the Jaguars pass defense and essentially blueprinted the Patriots game plan. This is a must-read for anyone trying to figure out how the Patriots will attack this Jaguars defense. Check out the article here. Onto DFS.

You are surely going to want to get your exposure to the Patriots offense. But the question is where? As a team with an implied total near four touchdowns, that generally bodes well for Tom Brady ($7,700). But as a big home favorite and in a matchup against a defense that funnels offensive production to running backs, which also bodes well for the New England running backs. So which way should you go?

After reading Sharps article is crystal clear the best way to attack the Jags is over the middle with at most two wide receiver sets. They have a strong defensive line and secondary but are average at linebacker. That opens things up for Gronk and the running backs. So I’m looking to build Brady stacks with Gronk ($7,900) and one, possibly two of the New England running backs. Brady and Gronk are the top plays on the board and I will have them on 70% of my lineups.

Unfortunately, the New England running back situation is far from a clear picture. Dion Lewis ($8,100) is the slates highest price running back and has done exceptionally well over the past four weeks, scoring five touchdowns during that span. But with the news that Rex Burkhead ($5,400) will likely return for the first time in three weeks, it could eat away from Lewis’ production. On top of Burkhead’s return, we saw last week James White ($4,900) eat into Lewis’ production by scoring two touchdowns against the Titans.

I don’t have a problem with playing any one of these running backs with Brady because they are all capable of catching the ball. I still think Lewis will get the majority of the workload even with all three backs active. Even though Burkhead may return I strongly think White will have more opportunity over him because he was productive with his touches last week and the Pats are likely to ease Burkhead back into action. I really like White for the savings he brings, and I’m leaning toward a hard fade on Burkhead simply because on two-game slates you have to take a stand on questionable players.

I’d rank them Lewis, White, Burkhead.

I don’t mind pairing one or two of these running backs with Brady because I am likely not to stack Brady with any one of his wide receivers. As Sharp’s article pointed out, the best way to target the Jags is over the middle and with the running backs. I don’t like picking on Ramsey or Bouye on the corners. If I had to rank the Pats receivers

I’d go Chris Hogan ($5,000), Brandin Cooks ($6,100), Danny Amendola ($5,500). But none of these come close to Gronk.

Last week, the Jags allowed Steelers tight end Vance McDonald to a team-high 10 catches. Imagine what Gronk will do if he’s funneled with 16 targets that McDonald saw last week. Gronk is might be the best play of the entire slate.

PATRIOTS PLAYS:
T. Brady, R. Gronkowski, D. Lewis, J. White, C. Hogan, B. Cooks

Jacksonville Jaguars (19.5)

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

* News *

L. Fournette – limited on Thursday (ankle) – expected to play
T. Gipson (FS) – missed practice on Thursday (foot) – expected to play

On the Jags side of the ball, we have a few intriguing options, starting with the quarterback. Don’t throw up, but Blake Bortles ($5,000) is a popular punt play that is worthy of your consideration. NFL coverage on every station has bashed Bortles’ inconsistent play, but somehow he has gotten the Jags to the AFC championship game. In his two playoff games, Bortles has completed only 53% of his passes and has thrown for a combined 301 yards with 2 touchdowns. Those numbers are a far cry from what you’d like to see from a quarterback in a championship game, but Bortles has added some production with his legs to make up for his lack of production through the air. In the past two games, Bortles has 123 rushing yards on 15 attempts (8.2 YPC). The added rushing production has made him rosterable considering his minimum priced salary.

Now Bortles faces the Patriots defense that ranked 21st DVOA during the regular season but isn’t as bad as their ranking suggest. The Patriots haven’t allowed a quarterback to throw for 300 yards since week 6. However, even though the Patriots are much improved, if the game script goes as Vegas and several other analysts suggest, Bortles could be looking at plenty of garbage time opportunities to reach his value at only $5k. Even if the Jags manage an early lead, it bodes well for Bortles because he owns a passer rating of 103 when playing with a lead.

If I’m playing Bortles or trying to find a Jaguar receiver to create a game stack with I’m rostering Dede Westbrook ($3,900) or Marquise Lee ($4,400). Despite only seeing 9 targets combined last week, Westbrook and Lee still played over 65% of the snaps last week. Since the Jags got their full receiving corp healthy, Lee and Westbrook have led the way in snaps and targets, while Keelan Cole ($3,500) and Allen Hurns ($3,300) have split time in the slot. Although the best way to attack the Patriots secondary is receivers in the slot, I still prefer Westbrook and Lee over Cole and Hurns because they are more likely to be on the field.

My rankings for the Jags receivers are Westbrook, Lee, Cole, and Hurns.

The real focal point of the Jags offense is their running game. Leonard Fournette ($7,200) is the lone back on the slate that doesn’t have to worry about touches. Fournette is the only running back that is guaranteed to touch the ball over 20 times. He’s also the lone back that doesn’t have to share touches with anyone. The issue with Fournette is that he could suffer from a negative game script. If the game goes the way Vegas projects, that could limit Fournette’s rushes, and he has only averaged 3 receptions over the past four games. On top of that, Belichick gameplans to take away the opposing offenses’ best player and that means Fournette will likely see 7 to 8 men in the box. The positive side of rostering Fournette is that you get nice touchdown equity. Despite averaging a modest 4.4 YPC last week, he accounted for 3 of the 5 offensive touchdowns. It’s worth noting that the Patriots have only given up 5 rushing touchdowns on the year and last week held Derrick Henry 2.3 YPC. The matchup and negative game script make me cautious in rostering Fournette this week despite his $1,500 drop off from last week.

JAGUARS:
B. Bortles, D. Westbrook, M. Lee, L. Fournette *only if you are fading Brady and stacking with Jags DST*

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football

by Chris Tierney - cstcst 0 Comments

*Chris Tierney – cstcst*

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football

Welcome to Wild Card weekend! The stakes ramp up on Saturday as the 2018 edition of the NFL playoffs open in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon. There are some intriguing matchups this weekend which we’ll dive into each a little bit below. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.

 

Tennessee at Kansas City (-8.5, 44)

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Vegas Implied Final Score:

Kansas City 26
Tennessee 18

Key Injuries:

  • Demarco Murray has been ruled out meaning Derrick Henry will get the majority of touches out of the backfield for the Titans.
  • Albert Wilson was nicked up during the win over Denver but all signs point to him playing this week.

DFS Chalk:  Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry, Alex Smith, Chiefs Defense

DFS Value: Eric Decker, Delanie Walker, Albert Wilson, Corey Davis, Marcus Mariota

Kansas City has gotten well over the past four weeks after a four-game losing streak nearly derailed their season.  The teams they beat during this winning streak?  The Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins and Broncos.  One winning record out of the bunch.  The Titans also stumble into the playoffs having lost three of their final four.  Two of those came in Western time zones in hard fought games against Arizona and San Francisco, and they also dropped a close contest at home to the Rams before clinching this spot last week at home against Jacksonville.  This matchup looks evenly matched on paper and while chilly, the forecasted 28-degree weather is not awful for offensive players.

 

Atlanta at Los Angeles (-6.5, 48.5)

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Vegas Implied Final Score:

Los Angeles 27.5
Atlanta 22

Key Injuries:

  • There are no injuries of significance to monitor in this game.

DFS Chalk: Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Rams Defense, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu

DFS Value: Sammy Watkins, DeVonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Austin Hooper

The biggest DFS decision of the week is whether to fade Todd Gurley, who finished the Regular Season as the top RB in Fantasy Football.  He is very expensive across all formats this weekend and has certainly earned his price tag.  He will feature on Saturday and his success or lack thereof will likely dictate GPP formats before Sunday games even kick off.  Early projected ownership reports have a majority not paying the massive price tag.  Personally, I’ve yet to decide which way I’ll end up going but this is likely the central decision to Wildcard DFS.  Gurley would need to hit the 25-30 point mark to return GPP value, which while doable, is hardly something to bank on.  The Rams defensive weakness is against the run game and I expect the Falcons to attempt to control the ball and play keep away from the Rams in this one.  The Rams are legit and are a very dangerous offense capable of taking what the defense gives them.

 

 

Carolina at New Orleans (-7, 48.5)

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Las Vegas Implied Score:

New Orleans 27.25
Carolina 21.25

Key Injuries:

  • The Saints tight end situation is a bit murky, and while a complete potential flier, it might be worth paying attention to.

DFS Chalk: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Greg Olsen, Michael Thomas

DFS Value: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Ted Ginn, Mark Ingram

In our opinion, this sets up as the most interesting game on the weekend slate.  These two teams met the first weekend in December with New Orleans prevailing by 10 points.  In that game, the Saints ran for 148 yards and Brees threw for 269 yards with Kamara accounting for over 120 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns on 14 touches.  In that game, the Panthers defense was visibly frustrated with their inability to wrap up Kamara.  The Panthers will have one focus this week and that will be limiting and tackling the Saints lightning bolt offensive weapon.  That could open the rest of the field for Brees and his wideouts, which sure seems like a good GPP route.  Of course, the Panthers are a talented team very capable of winning and moving on here.  Cam is scrambling once again, which makes him an elite option.  While the Panthers are lacking at the WR position, Christian McCaffery and a healthy Greg Olsen make up for it.  This game is a coin flip and brings plenty of fantasy options with perhaps the best chance of ‘shooting out’.

 

 

Buffalo at Jacksonville (-9, 39.5)

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Las Vegas Implied Score:

Jacksonville 23.80
Buffalo 16.30

DFS Chalk: LeSean McCoy (if healthy), Leonard Fournette, Jags defense

DFS Value: Kellan Cole, Blake Bortles, Dede Westbrook

LeSean McCoy is likely to give it a go on his bum ankle, and without his presence, the Bills are a tremendous longshot to even threaten the Jaguars in this spot.  Many are down on the Jags after a rough finish that saw them drop two in a row to end the season.  The Jags are an interesting team heading into the postseason and they do two things well that win Championships.  They have the best talent on defense in the AFC and can run the football.  The game script here should allow Fournette and the Jags defense to shine all while awarding a home fan base that hasn’t seen a home playoff game in a decade.  On paper, the Jags sure look like a team that no one wants to host in the Divisional Round.

 

OVERALL:

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Top DFS Chalk Selections: Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville, Todd Gurley, RB, LA Rams, Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City

Top GPP / Value Selections: Christian McCaffery, RB, Carolina, Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta, Austin Hooper, TE, Atlanta, Eric Decker, WR, Tennessee

Top GPP Contrarian Stack: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Greg Olsen

 

Draftkings NFL Cash and GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 15

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 15

We have arrived to the Draftkings championship week. If you are fortunate enough to earn a seat, good luck to you as 200 entries compete for the $2 million top prize. The Draftkings main slate is a unique one this week with only 11 games. There are two games on Saturday along with the usual Thursday Night, Sunday Night, and Monday Night games that are not on the main slate. On top of that, we have six teams (Steelers, Patriots, Jags, Eagles, Rams, and Vikings) potentially able to clinch a playoff berth this week. Let’s dive right in.

Vegas

As a polar opposite of last week’s Vegas stats, this week features three teams that are double-digit favorites. The Saints are a massive 16 point favorite against the Jets. The Vikings are 11 point favorites at home against the Bengals, and the Jags are 10.5 home favorites against the Texans. Outside of these three teams, the Eagles (7.5) and Ravens (7.5) are road touchdown favorites, rounding out the largest spreads of the week.

There are a few games worth targeting this week, starting with the Pats at the Steelers, which has a slate high 53 game total. The Rams at Seahawks, Jets at Saints, and Packers at Panthers all have nice game totals over 47. Outside of those games, there aren’t any games with totals over 45.

As far as implied team totals, the Saints are the clear front-runners with an implied total of 31.75 points. The Pats have the second-best total of 28 points. The Vikings (26.5), Jags (25), Steelers (25), Panthers (24.75) and Seahawks (24.75) round out the top 5 highest implied team totals.

All this Vegas data was taken as of Wednesday night, so I strongly suggest checking back on Vegas Insiders on Sunday morning.

Quarterbacks

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 15

Cam Newton (DK $6,400) – Cam comes into week 15 as one of my favorite quarterbacks of the week. He’s the 6th highest priced quarterback and has a really good matchup at home against the Packers (29th aFPA vs. QBs). We saw Deshone Kizer light up this same Packers secondary last week and scored 19.26 DK points, that’s about Cam’s floor. Cam performs much better as a home favorite opposed to as a  home underdog, and that is the situation he finds himself in this week. His team’s implied total is in the top 5 of the slate (24.75) and I expect this game to be a lot closer than most anticipate. I also love Cam’s rushing upside. Since week 6, Cam has rushed the ball more than 9 times in all but two games. Cam has a nice floor with his rushing upside and has a good ceiling of close to 30 points.

Drew Brees (DK $6,500) – An interesting pivot off Cam would be to pay the extra $100 to get to Drew Brees. Brees isn’t the same Brees we’ve grown to know with the Saints offense constantly throwing the ball 40+ times. Because of the Saints dynamic rushing duo, Brees has failed to meet salary expectations 5 of the last 6 games. Brees has only met salary expectation at home twice this season. All this points to a sneaky gpp play with Brees going up against the Jets funnel defense as they rank 32nd in aFPA to QB’s and are 7th in aFPA to RBs. Brees’ floor is much lower than Newton, but his ceiling always makes him appealing for tournaments.

Blake Bortles (DK $5,700) – Scraping the bottom of the barrel for a value QB is really difficult this week. With the limited number of games, there is a limited number of value quarterbacks on the slate. I’m more than likely going to stay in the midrange ($6,000 – $7,000). But if you are really looking for value, I would say take a look at Bortles. Bortles is coming off of two really decent games in which he combined to throw for 577 yards with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions (46.58 DK points). This week he faces a horrible Texans defense that ranks 30th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. Believe it or not, I may have talked myself into playing Bortles as I’m writing this.

Cash:

C. Newton, C. Keenum, B. Roethlisberger, R. Wilson, B. Bortles

GPP:

D. Brees, T. Brady, A. Rodgers, J. Goff

Running Backs

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 15

Le’Veon Bell (DK $9,300) –  Finally we get the opportunity to roster Le’Veon in the main slate. Bell is the highest priced back, $700 more than Kamara, and at this point, it doesn’t matter. He’s in a league of his own, and the upwards of $9,000 price tag doesn’t scare me. Bell has been priced over 9K almost every game this season and has smashed nearly every week. The past three games, Bell is averaging 33.66 DK points and is averaging over 25 touches per game. Although Bell has only carried the ball more than 20 times once the last three weeks, he’s still seeing double-digit targets and has converted that to over 270 receiving yards in the last three games.

Kenyan Drake (DK $5,800) – Kenyan Drake has been absolutely smashing since Damien Williams went down in week 12. Drake has taken over the Dolphins backfield and has produced better than Gase could have expected. In two games without Williams, Drake is playing 85% of the snaps, has 91% of the rushing attempts and has accumulated 234 yards with 1 touchdown and 8 receptions. He has accumulated 53.4 DK points in those two games. This week he goes up against the Bills defense that ranks 32nd in aFPA to opposing running backs and just got lit up by old man Frank Gore for 130 yards. Drake is the chalk this week.

** It’s worth checking William’s practice status as he is pushing to get back on the field. **

Jerick McKinnon (DK $4,800) – There isn’t a free square value play like there was last week with Gio Bernard, but this week McKinnon might rank as my favorite. McKinnon is the same price as Samaje Perine, who undoubtedly comes with a safer floor given that Washington isn’t utilizing a running back committee but I still like McKinnon. McKinnon is starting to separate himself from Latavius Murray, having played more snaps (53% to 46%) and received more of targets (18 to 8) in the past 4 weeks. Murray still sees the majority of the rushing attempts (60:43), but DK’s PPR format helps make McKinnon more valuable. McKinnon is a huge home favorite against the Bengal who rank 30th in aFPA allowed. I do have some hesitation that if the Vikings get out to a big lead, it could mean more of Murray pounding the ball opposed to McKinnon catching the ball out of the backfield, but I think this game is closer than most anticipate.

Cash:

L. Bell, T. Gurley, K. Drake, G. Bernard, S. Perine, L. McCoy

GPP:

A. Kamara > M. Ingram, L. Fournette, K. Williams, J. Ajayi, J. McKinnon, C. McCaffrey

Wide Receivers

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 15

Michael Thomas (DK $7,400) – Outside of Antonio Brown ($9,100) the next best receiver to hit cash game value is Michael Thomas. He’s one of six active receivers averaging over 10 targets per game in the past month and this week he has a nice matchup against the Jets. The Jets rank 28th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers, and Thomas leads the team in targets with 125 on the season and 9.6 targets per game. Thomas has the better matchup than Hopkins at $7,700 and Thielen $7,600.

Devin Funchess (DK $6,600) – The other highest owned receiver along with Thomas might be Funchess. Funchess has either scored a touchdown or reached the 100-yard bonus each of his last 4 games and now gets one of the best matchups you could ask for against the Packers. The Packers are the worst team in the league against opposing wide receivers, and this game could very well shoot out if Aaron Rodgers suits up. Funchess leads the team in targets (39) since the Panthers traded Benjamin. You don’t always have to pair Cam with any of his receivers because of Cam’s rushing upside, but Funchess would be the ideal stack if you do.

AJ Green (DK $6,500) – AJ Green has seen a crazy price drop and is all the way down to $6,500. Green is a top 5 receiver in the league, and I’ll always be interested in Green at this price point. The problem is that Green is going up against the Vikings who rank 6th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers and will see a lot of Xavier Rhodes. Green may be a risk for cash games considering there is Funches around that price range. But I love getting exposure to him at his price in tournaments.

Jordy Nelson (DK $6,300) – The ghost of Jordy Nelson. He’s had a terrible year, but with the news that Aaron Rodgers could return, that could mean an uptick in targets for Nelson. Unfortunately, his price actually increased above $6,000, so he doesn’t come as much of a bargain. But he should come in at single-digit ownership, which makes for a nice tournament flyer.

Cash:

A. Brown, M. Thomas, D. Funches, A. Green, M. Goodwin, A. Jeffrey, R. Anderson, D. Westbrook

GPP:

A. Thielen, B. Cooks, D. Adams, J. Crowder, D. Baldwin, P. Richardson, R. Matthews

Tight End

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 15

Zach Ertz (DK $6,000) – This week we don’t have the value that we had last week with Ertz missing the game making Trey Burton a plug and play. We’re still waiting to hear if Ertz will play this week, but if he does, he’s substantially cheaper than Gronk ($7,300). Even without Wentz, Nick Foles is a formattable backup quarterback. It doesn’t get much better than a matchup against the Giants who rank 26th in aFPA to tight ends. If Ertz is active, he should be considered the top play at tight end.

Jimmy Graham (DK $4,900) – Graham is an even bigger discount from the high priced tight ends. You can’t deny Graham’s red zone market share, and the matchup against the Rams should be a game that is back and forth. The Rams are respectable against tight ends (12th aFPA), but last time these two faced off Graham went for 15.7 DK points. The sub $5,000 price tag seems reasonable to me.

Vernon Davis (DK $3,900) – Davis might be my favorite punt play. He’s taken over the starting tight end job with Reed being placed on IR. The issue is he’s been relatively quiet the last four games only catching 7 balls for 117 yards. The bright side is that last week he saw his targets jump back up to 7 against the Chargers and he was able to find his way into the end zone. Below $4,000 against the Cardinals (18th aFPA vs. TE), I’ll take my chances here if I need salary relief.

Cash:

R. Gronkowski, Z. Ertz, J. Graham, V. Davis

GPP:

E. Engram, D. Walker, G. Olsen, C. Clay, A. Seferian-Jenkins

Defense

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 15

Minnesota Vikings (DK $3,500) – The top five priced defense are all in positive spots. Of the five, I like the Vikings the most given their $1,000 salary savings from the Jags. They’re up against the Bengals who just got embarrassed by the 4-9 Bears. The Vikings are coming off of a disappointing loss and should look to rebound as huge home favorites.

Miami Dolphins (DK $2,700) – If Tyrod Taylor is ruled out on Sunday, that could leave Joe Webb starting for the Bills. Joe Webb showed some potential in the preseason, but the Dolphins defense just put out their best performance of the season beating the Patriots on Monday Night Football. Check the news on Taylor. If Taylor is out I wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on Miami.