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Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

Second base provides a unique opportunity because you can go in any number of directions with the position. There are big power hitters, speedsters, and players that hit for high average littered throughout the position. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some second basemen who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

This is an easy one. Not only is Altuve the best second baseman, but I’d rank him second overall behind Angels outfielder Mike Trout. Altuve won the AL-MVP last year, batting .346 with 24 home runs, 81 RBI, 112 runs scored and 32 stolen bases. He had a career-high OPS+ of 164 and played in at least 147 games for the sixth straight season. His speed and ability to hit for a high average gave him significant value early in his career, but he’s moved into elite fantasy status by clubbing at least 24 home runs in back-t0-back seasons. He’s heading into the prime of his career at just 27 years old, so don’t expect him to slow down this season.

Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians

Ramirez made his mark on fantasy baseball in 2016, hitting .312 with 11 home runs, 76 RBI, and 22 steals. He also had 46 doubles, showing signs that a big power season might soon be on the horizon. That season came last year, finishing with 29 home runs. But wait, he also hit a league-leading 56 doubles. The result was a spectacular .583 slugging percentage, putting him inside the top-10 in the league. His power did not come at the expense of his batting average either as he still hit .318. His hard hit percentage has increased each season, topping out at 34% last year. He doesn’t have as much upside as Altuve, but his ability to contribute across the board makes him the clear second best option at the keystone position.

Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins

Dozier is a masher at second base, slugging at least 28 home runs in three straight seasons. It was going to be tough for him to match the 42 home runs that he hit in 2016, but he still hit 34 homers last year. He’s more than just a slugger though, scoring at least 100 runs and stealing at least 12 bases in four straight seasons. He hindered fantasy owners with his batting average early in his career but has hit at least .268 in back-to-back seasons. He had a hard hit percentage of at least 34.1% in both of those seasons, which was a big reason why his average improved. If you miss out on Altuve or Ramirez, draft Dozier with confidence.

Overvalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

Dee Gordon, Seattle Mariners

Steals are not easy to come by, but Gordon is one of the elite base stealers in all of baseball. He has led the league in steals three of the last four seasons, finishing with at least 58 steals all three times. The one year he didn’t lead the league was when he played just 79 games in 2016 due to a suspension. Amazingly, he still finished with 30 steals that year. Gordon is not just about steals though as he has a .293 career batting average and scored 114 runs last year. He’s going to play center field for the Mariners this year, but will still carry over second base eligibility. The Mariners have a potent lineup, which should leave Gordon with plenty of opportunities to score runs. The problem is, he has never hit more than four home runs or recorded more than 46 RBI in a single season. If your league counts OBP, his career mark of .329 is not impressive either. His current ADP in the NFBC is too high at 28.47, which is actually ahead of Dozier (37.87). Let someone else take him at that price.

Chris Taylor, Los Angeles Dodgers

Taylor was one of the biggest surprises in fantasy baseball last year. He played in only 120 total games the previous three seasons but played 140 games in 2017. He made the most of his opportunity, hitting .288 with 21 home runs, 72 RBI, 85 runs scored and 17 steals. One area of concern is his drastic splits though, batting .237 with a .306 BABIP at home compared to .336 with a .412 BABIP on the road. His overall numbers are valuable, but his current ADP of 90.83 is ninth-highest among second basemen. Marwin Gonzalez’s current ADP is 114.25 and he could provide very similar numbers outside of stolen bases, although he did steal eight bases last year. It might be wise to pass on Taylor if forced to select him so early.

Undervalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have one of the most flexible rosters in the league, but Happ should still get plenty of at-bats. He played in just 115 games last year, but still managed hit 24 home runs to go along with 68 RBI, 62 runs scored and eight steals. He batted only .253 though and struck out 31.2% of the time. The high strikeouts may have just been him getting adjusted to major league pitching as he never struck out more than 23.6% of the time during any of his stops in the minors. His current ADP is 137.46, which is a bargain considering his potential. Don’t be surprised if he finishes with a more productive season than Taylor.

Ian Kinsler, Los Angeles Angels

Today’s craze in baseball is young talent. There seems to more elite young players across the league now than in recent years, which can often make you forget about productive veterans in terms of fantasy. A lot of people might be down on Kinsler after a rough 2017 campaign that saw him hit a career-low .236. His numbers indicate he could rebound this season as last year he had only a .244 BABIP, well below his career mark of .286. Another possible indicator for improvement this year is that he also had a 37% hard hit percentage last year, which was the highest of his career. Yes, he’s getting older, but the numbers indicate he had few bounces go his way last year.  Not only should his average improve this year, but he is also a threat to hit 20 home runs and steal 15 bases. His current ADP is only 189.25, making him someone to target late in your draft.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks for August 29, 2017

*Austyn Varney*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks – Tuesday, August 29, 2017

*STARTING PITCHERS*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks - Boston RedSox - Chris Sale

Chris Sale @ Toronto Blue Jays
Park – Rogers Centre
Opp implied total – 3.29

On the high-end, you have Chris Sale and Jake Arrieta. While Arrieta is great and he can throw a CGSO at any point, he’s no Chris Sale. Sale is one of the 3 best pitchers in baseball and should have no problem bouncing back after struggling last week against the Indians. They’ve owned him in his career and he didn’t show any signs of injury or fatigue. They were just hitting balls that most teams whiff on. When looking at the numbers, you’d think Sale is one of the best arms to walk this planet. He’s allowed just a .247 combined wOBA while striking out 12.77 batters per 9 innings. Sale and the Sox now move into The Rogers Centre to face off with the lowly Blue Jays. While they are better against lefties, a .321 wOBA and 22$ strikeout rate is nothing to be afraid of. Expect Sale to have another one of his typical starts where he goes 7+ innings, strikes out 9+, and gets the W. There is no pitcher on the slate that compares to Sale in safety, at least in my opinion.

Luke Weaver @ Milwaukee Brewers
Park – Miller Park
Vegas O/U – X

Even though we have a lot of games on this slate, pitching isn’t pretty in the slightest. Fortunately, we do have a couple options that stand out. On the lower end, it’s Luke Weaver. Weaver is a 1st round pick just a couple years back out of FSU. He hasn’t stopped dominating since and it looks like he doesn’t have any plans of slowing down. Albeit a very small sample size, Weaver has dominated at the pro level so far. He’s striking guys out at a 27% clip while holding both lefties and righties to a sub .310 wOBA. He’ll likely run into a few road blocks like most young arms do, but I don’t think it comes in the form of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers aren’t a “bad” offense, but they have a lot of holes. They strikeout 25.6% of the time and have trouble putting together big innings. I don’t think Weaver leaves with a clean slate here, but he should get 6 or 7 solid innings. At his price, you can’t ask for more.

*OFFENSIVE STACKS*

Brian Dozier - MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks - Lineuplab

Minnesota Twins Vs James Shields (White Sox)
Park – Progressive Field
Implied Total – 5.82

The Twins and James Shields just faced off in Shields’ last start, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Twins respond to a walking pitching machine they saw under a week ago. Typically, hitters gain the edge in this spot. With that being said, there’s no real merit in that. The real merit comes in James Shields being horrible. He’s a bottom 5 pitcher in the entire league and I’m not sure he’s mentally or physically capable of having a good start. At 35 years old, Shields has given up a .422 wOBA to lefties and a .300 to righties. You can definitely target the filler righties like Dozier or Buxton, but the real value comes in the left-handers. You then get to the White Sox bullpen, which is undoubtedly one of the worst. The Twins are an extremely safe offense and you can pencil in at least 4 or 5 runs here. The prices are solid and you should be able to fit 4 of them while also fitting Sale as an SP1.

Main Stack – Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario
Sneaky Stack – Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Eduardo Escobar

Houston Astros @ Martin Perez (Rangers)
Park – Minute Maid Park
Implied Total – X

There are some very nice offenses on this slate, but not many that you want to stack fully. The Astros are a team that can put up 10+ runs on any given night and the HR upside they possess in this match-up is hard to find. They will host the Rangers and Martin Perez, who is bad against righties. He has a huge HR problem and has had it for about 10 years. It’s going nowhere. Through 114 innings, Perez has allowed a .364 wOBA and 17 home runs. He is great against lefties, so I don’t see a reason to target those guys. With that being said, the combo of Altuve+Springer+Bregman is extremely dangerous and can bring you to the top of a tournament. I also don’t think the ‘Stros will be too highly owned. There are a lot of different options and I would think these guys come in around 15-20% owned.

Main Stack – Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel
Sneaky Stack – Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez

 

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks for August 23, 2017

*Austyn Varney*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks – Wednesday, August 23, 2017

*STARTING PITCHERS*

Corey Kluber - MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks

Corey Kluber Vs Boston Red Sox
Park – Progressive Field
Opp implied total – 3.14

We do have a few guys to pay up for, and they all make some sense. Corey Kluber comes in at number 1, even though his price is steep. Kluber has been one of the best pitchers in the league so far and would be in the Cy Young discussion if he didn’t miss a month. Kluber has posted a .250 combined wOBA while striking out over 12 batters per 9 innings. In other words, he is elite. Super elite. He now hosts the Boston Red Sox, who are an admittedly intimidating offense. However, when you dig in, you get a lineup that Corey Kluber can do real damage against. The 1,2, 5,7,8, and 9 hitters all hold 20%+ K rates, so go ahead and throw out the notion that the Red Sox don’t K. They absolutely do K and if there’s gonna be a guy to get them swinging, it’s Klubot. He’s easily the safest option on the board and will be in all of my cash games. With that being said, I completely understand pivoting down to Marcus Stroman or Luis Severino.

Luke Weaver Vs San Diego Padres
Park – Busch Stadium
Vegas O/U – 3.70

In cash games, stick to the 3 top-end arms. They are far above the rest in terms of safety. In tournaments, however, you can get a bit wild. We do have some offenses to pay up for, so there is merit to fading the high-end arm. You also see a 3.70 implied total from Vegas, which intrigued me a ton. That’s a number you see on a team that’s facing an ace. The Padres had a big night last night and I’d like to think the public will stay away from Weaver. He’s a first-round pick out of FSU and a guy that can throw the baseball. That might sound weird, but watch him pitch and you’ll know what I mean. This Padres order is absolutely atrocious and will only be able to fit 2 or 3 lefties. Weaver has dominated righties since entering the minors and profiles as a guy that K’s around 8-9 per 9 innings. He pitches better in Busch Stadium and should be able to have a solid outing against one of the worst teams around. I like him a hint more than Lance Lynn.

*OFFENSIVE STACKS*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks - Brian Dozier

Minnesota Twins @ James Shields (White Sox)
Park – Great American Ballpark
Implied Total – 5.62

You know the drill. If James Shields is pitching, expect the opposing lineup to be here. Shields has allowed a .409 wOBA to righties and .308 to righties. That doesn’t mean fade the righties, however. He still gives up the long ball to them and you can also expect some varied bullpen arms. There isn’t much else to say about James Shields, besides the fact that he’s a pitching machine with legs. Lefties absolutely obliterate everything he tries and it’ll be fun to see him face off with some of these guys. Eddie Rosario is actually my favorite of the bunch and one of my top overall plays on the slate. The rest of the order is pretty spread out, so go wherever you would like. Eduardo Escobar and Max Kepler are interesting and way too cheap for the spot they are in. Don’t ignore the Twins offense when they’re expected to put up nearly 6 runs.

Main Stack – Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Eduardo Escobar
Sneaky Stack – Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Kennys Vargas, Jorge Polanco

Houston Astros Vs Edwin Jackson (Nationals)
Park – Minute Maid Park
Implied Total – 5.20

Edwin Jackson hasn’t been horrible, so people may forget how horrible he is. He will return to his old ways very soon and there is no better match-up than the Houston Astros. If there is 1 team to demoralize a pitcher, it’s these guys. While they may not be the most talented offense in the league, they just don’t stop. You don’t get a break from 1-9 and as a bad pitcher, that’s tough You will often rely on 2 or 3 batters towards the bottom of the order to pick up your pitch count and confidence. Against the Astros, you don’t get that. In return, you see pitchers sweating bullets by the 3rd and facing Altuve with runners on the corners. Jackson has also given up a .370 wOBA since 2015, so he just stinks. The ‘Stros can go absolutely bonkers and we don’t really know where the HR’s will come from, so take an educated guess.

Main Stack – Jose Altuve, George Springer, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonalez
Sneaky Stack – Jose Altuve, George Springer, Yuli Gurriel, Alex Bregman

DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for August 3, 2017

*Chris Durell*

DraftKings / FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for August 3, 2017

Welcome to another Thursday in daily fantasy baseball. Today we have a split slate and with just three early games, I will be looking at my top pitcher and stacks from the 10-game main slate. Let’s take a look.

Starting Pitchers

 

Colin McHugh
Opponent – vs. TB
Park – Minute Maid Park (Pitcher Friendly)
Vegas Favorite (HOU -150)
Vegas Total (9.5)

My top pitcher of the night when factoring matchup, Vegas, and PTS/$ value is Colin McHugh. He made his first start of the season July 22nd after missing the first four months due to an elbow injury. He was looking good early but slipped and ended up giving up four earned runs. In his second start in Detroit, he was fantastic going six innings allowing just four hits and one earned run while striking out seven and walking just one batter. While the Rays can be a pesky team with some power upside, they do have the second-most strikeouts in the league(1052) and have seen it get worse lately striking out 26.5% of the time over the past 14 days. The best part is you can use McHugh as an SP2 on DraftKings at just $7,500 and is likely low owned on FanDuel with Rick Porcello (-250) coming at a $100 discount.

Also consider: Alex Wood (LAD)

 

Top Stacks

DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks - Baltimore Orioles - LineupLab

Baltimore Orioles & Detroit Tigers Game Stack

I absolutely love this game offensively from both sides tonight. The Orioles are currently -135 favorites at home in a game with the highest total and we get two pretty awful pitchers facing off. The O’s will face Matt Boyd who doesn’t necessarily give up a ton of home runs(10% HR/FB rate) but has given up three or more earned runs in 10 straight starts. The Tigers get the better power upside matchup vs. Chris Tillman who has been a punching bag all season. He saw his ERA drop to 7.65 after giving up eight earned runs in his last start and best of all, he has given up at least one home run in nine of his last 10 starts.

Orioles Players to Stack – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Jonathan Schoop, Wellington Castillo

Tigers Players to Stack – Jim Adduci, Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton

 

 

Minnesota Twins vs. A.J. Griffin

This stack is likely to be low owned due to some rain concerns(40% chance) and the fact the Twins offense just hasn’t been that great this season. I like their upside tonight facing A.J. Griffin who is making his return from an intercostal sprain(chest) that caused him to sit on the DL since the end of May. Before going down, he was having a rough time of it giving up 17 earned runs over 9.2 innings(3 starts) including eight home runs. Until I see him fully regain his form, I will target him for big upside no matter who the team is. Tonight it’s the Twins.

Top Players to Stack – Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, Miguel Sano, Eduardo Escobar