*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 8
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Tier 1
There are only three players in the first tier again this week but the decision is much tougher. Both LeSean McCoy and Julio Jones are coming off a week in which they reached the endzone for the first time in 2017 while A.J. Green had a down week in a divisional matchup vs. the Steelers. This week they all get near elite matchups and it starts with LeSean McCoy who faces a Raiders team that ranks 20th in DVOA vs. the rush, and 18th in DraftKings points per game vs. the running back position(113.9 yards per game). The Bills are at home where they have yet to lose a game this season and open as slight favorites(-2.5) and with the lack of receiving options, will rely heavily on McCoy. He is my top choice in this tier. If you are looking to go with a wideout here, I prefer Julio who gets a slightly better matchup vs. a Jets team that ranks 23rd in DVOA vs. pass and 27th in DraftKings points per game to the position. What scares me most about A.J. Green this week is that the Bengals are currently double-digit favorites which could take the game script away from Green as they could focus more on getting the run game going this week.
Tier 2
Looking at the running backs in the second tier, there is a case to be made for and against both of them. Melvin Gordon gets the much better matchup facing a Patriots team that ranks 26th in DVOA vs. the rush and 29th in DraftKings points allowed to running backs but Chargers are currently 7.5 point dogs which doesn’t bode well for Gordon’s projected carries. The good news is that he ranks 6th among running backs with 6.1 targets to game. For Ingram who has the lesser of the matchups vs. the Bears who rank 16th in DVOA vs. the rush and 14th in DraftKings points per game allowed, he does have the projected game script in his favor as the Saints sits as large nine-point favorites. He also sits in the Top 10 with 5.1 targets per game and has been much more effective since the departure of Adrian Peterson with back to back 100-yard rushing games. With all that said, I lean Ingram in this spot, even over Mike Evans who has been a beast with touchdowns in three of his last four games. The issue with Evans is the matchup vs. the Panthers who rank Top 10 in DraftKings points allowed to wideout this season and have allowed the fourth-fewest yards per game through the air(180.7).
Tier 3
Naturally, Tom Brady will see a lot of ownership in a pick’em format and it makes sense as the Pats have the #2 passing offense with 300 yards per game. The issue for me in Week 8 is the matchup vs. the Chargers who rank 8th in DVOA vs. the pass, have allowed the fifth-fewest yards per game through the air(185.4), and rank 6th in DraftKings points allowed to the QB position. The other seasoned veteran, Drew Brees, also gets a tough matchup vs. a Bears team that ranks 10th in DVOA vs. the pass and 6th in DraftKings points allowed to the position. Cam Newton has been struggling big time following his back to back 300+ yard games with just one touchdown in his last two games while not breaking the 250-yard mark. Matt Ryan also falls in the struggling quarterback column as he has not broken the 300-yard mark since week one and has just seven touchdowns all season. He would be my low-owned contrarian play in this range as he is starting to target Julio Jones more and faces a Jets team that ranks 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass and ranks 20th in passing yards per game allowed(231.3). My favorite play in this tier is young Carson Wentz who has helped the Eagles to the top overall record in the league. He has been dominant over the last three weeks with 794 yards passing and 11 touchdowns while averaging 28.6 DraftKings points per game. He also gets an elite home matchup vs. a 49ers team that ranks 29th in DVOA vs. the pass and 31st in DraftKings points allowed to the quarterback.
Tier 4
I suspect in this tier a lot of people will be chasing points with Derek Carr and Jameis Winston who are both coming off monster games. I am not buying into it as Winston faces a very stout Panthers defense that has limited opposing quarterbacks to the fourth lowest passing yards per game(180.7) and ninth fewest DraftKings points per game. Carr also gets a tough matchup going on the road to Buffalo to face a Bills team that ranks 11th in DVOA vs. the pass and 11th in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. The Raiders wideouts also have some tough matchups as they will face E.J. Gaines and Tre’Davious White who rank 34th and 4th when looking at PFF’s cornerback rankings. I do like Andy Dalton as a low-owned option in this range but like I mentioned with A.J. Green, I think the game script gets the Bengals away from the pass as they sit as double-digit home favorites. My favorite play in this range is Philip Rivers who shouldn’t have an issue with game script facing a New England team that leads the league with 410 yards per game and sit as 7.5 point favorites at home. I have a feeling the Chargers will be chasing most of the game and that means volume for Rivers and his receiving core. While the Pats defense looked better last week, they still rank 28th in DVOA vs. the pass and dead last in DraftKings points per game allowed to quarterbacks.
Tier 5
Tier 5 gives us two elite tight ends with monster upside but the issue is they both get very tough matchups vs. teams that rank inside the Top 5 when looking at Draftkings points per game allowed to the position. I just finished telling you how Rivers was my top QB in the fourth tier so I naturally like the upside that Keenan Allen provides as his top target. I also doubt he will be the highest owned player in this tier either as he has struggled this season with just one touchdown(week 1) but sits Top 5 in targets and could easily breakout vs. a Pats team that ranks 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. Of the two running backs, I prefer Jordan Howard who continues to see the volume and gets a plus matchup vs. the Saints who are giving up 114 rush yards and 26.9 DraftKings points per game.
Tier 6
In Tier 6 we have five wideouts and Christian McCaffrey who has been used almost primarily like a wideout for the Panthers. His average of 8.4 targets per week not only leads all running backs in 2017 but would also rank him 13th if he were a wide receiver. He has not received double-digit carries in a game since week one but could possibly get a little more volume this week as Jonathan Stewart is dealing with a toe injury. If that is the case, he gets a nice matchup this week vs. the Bucs who have allowed 113.7 rushing yards per game and rank 23rd overall when looking at DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs. His teammate Kelvin Benjamin is my favorite target in this tier as he gets a nice matchup vs. a weak Bucs secondary that has allowed the third most passing yards per game(294.8) and rank dead last in DraftKings points per game to wideouts. I like the upside that the New England offense presents with Tom Brady under center but will be avoiding the situation this week as the Chargers outside cornerbacks ranks #9 and #11 out of 112 cornerbacks when looking at Pro Football Focus and rank 5th overall in passing yards allowed per game(185.4).
Tier 7
Combining opportunity and matchup in this tier, I turn to Pierre Garcon who leads all players(in the tier) with nine targets per game and gets a matchup vs. an Eagles secondary that ranks 28th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. The game script is also right for the picking as the 49ers are 13 point underdogs and should be forced to throw the ball a ton. I mentioned Kelvin Benjamin in the last tier and if you are not using him there, I would consider using Devin Funchess in this tier as the Bucs secondary, as I already mentioned, is bad. Both of their outside corners(Brent Grimes & Robert McLain) rank outside the Top 65 in PFF’s rankings. Nelson Agholor is also a nice high upside play in this tier. The floor is low as he only sees an average of five targets per week but he knows how to gain yards after the catch and reach the endzone and has done so in three straight weeks.
Tier 8
With the news on Wednesday that Michael Thomas is dealing with a knee injury, I like the upside that Tedd Ginn Jr. provides. He is coming off a monster week where he went off for 141 yards and has scored twice in his last four games. Even with Michael Thomas in the game, teams have been blanketing coverage his direction forcing Drew Brees to go other directions and Ginn has been the benefactor. In a similar situation, I also like Mohamed Sanu of the Falcons as the Jets are likely to shadow Julio Jones with Morriss Claiborne which could open up extra targets for Sanu who is coming off a decent week where he caught six of his 10 targets for 65 yards. The final play I would consider in this range is tight end Hunter Henry who has all but taken over for future Hall of Famer, Antonio Gates. He has seen 80%+ snaps in back to back weeks while has seen just 57% and a season-low 31% last week. In those two weeks, Henry has caught nine of 12 targets for 163 yards and scored a touchdown in the two weeks prior to that. He gets a nice matchup this week vs. the Pats who rank 26th in DraftKings points allowed to the position.
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!