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MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 23

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
August special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout

As we shift to NFL DFS coverage next week on Lineup Lab, this will be the last starting pitching schedule analysis article for the season. Hopefully, these articles have helped you be successful in your league. Let’s end things on a high note. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 23

Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians: vs. MIN, vs. TB

Carrasco’s last start didn’t go well as he allowed six runs (five earned) across 3.2 innings. It came against the Red Sox in Fenway Park, so don’t be overly concerned. He was dealing heading into that outing, allowing three runs or fewer in eight straight starts. Not only does he have a lofty 10.2 K/9, but he’s shown excellent control by issuing 1.8 BB/9. The end result has been a 1.13 WHIP and a 3.55 ERA that is supported by an even stronger 3.10 FIP. The Twins have only averaged 3.9 runs across their last 10 games and the Rays haven’t had as much success on the road (.712 OPS) as they have a home (.737 OPS), potentially setting up Carrasco for a dominant week.

Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs: vs. NYM, at PHI

Lester appears to have turned things around after a brief rough stretch, allowing one run and recording 11 strikeouts across 11.2 innings in his last two starts. His 3.64 ERA overall is a big improvement from last year, but his 4.74 FIP certainly instills less confidence. One area of concern has been his lack of strikeouts. His 8.3% swinging-strike rate is his lowest mark since 2008, resulting in just a 7.2 K/9. With that being said, he still could be very productive this week. Both the Mets and Phillies have an OPS against left-handed pitchers that are in the bottom-third of baseball.

Lance Lynn, New York Yankees: vs. CWS, vs. DET

Lynn started off strong with the Yankees, allowing one run across 16.2 innings in his first three appearances. He pitched so well in his first outing out of the bullpen that he quickly replaced Sonny Gray in their rotation. His last two starts have been rough, allowing 10 runs over 9.1 innings. The good news is he struck out 11 batters during those two games, helping boost his K/9 for the season to 9.3. His first start for the Yankee came against these same White Sox and he responded with nine strikeouts in 7.1 scoreless innings. With the White Sox and the Tigers both in the bottom-third of the league in runs scored, Lynn could be in line for a couple of rebound performances. He is still available in 55% of Yahoo! leagues.

Brian Johnson, Boston Red Sox: vs. MIA, at CWS

With the Red Sox dealing with injuries, Johnson has been elevated into their starting rotation. He’s made 10 starts so far, posting a 3.63 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an 8.0 K/9. He’s had some rough opponents of late, facing the Yankees, Indians and Blue Jays in three of his last four starts. Things look much more favorable for him in Week 23 since both the Marlins and the White Sox are in the bottom-third of baseball in terms of OPS against left-handed pitching. If you’re looking for a viable streaming option, Johnson is still available in 93% of Yahoo! leagues.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 23

Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins: at CLE, at TEX

After posting an ERA of exactly 5.07 in both of the last two seasons, Gibson has been much improved this year with a 3.63 ERA. One of the keys to his success has been his 1.29 WHIP, which is significantly below his 1.41 career mark. He hasn’t been as good in August, though, with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. He gets two tough opponents in Week 23 based on the Indians and Rangers both being in the top-five in home OPS. You may have leaned on Gibson many times this season, but this might be the time to keep him on your bench.

Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox: at NYY, vs. BOS

Rodon has been excellent of late, allowing two runs or fewer in seven on his last eight starts. He has a sparkling 2.71 ERA for the season, but he’s been somewhat lucky based on his 4.27 FIP and incredibly low .206 BABIP allowed. His 7.2 K/9 is also the lowest mark of his career, although his 9.5% swinging-strike rate isn’t too far off from his career average. He’ll have to face the two juggernauts in the AL East in Week 23 and even though the Yankees are missing some key bats, I’d still shy away from putting Rodon into your lineup.

Ivan Nova, Pittsburgh Pirates: at STL, at ATL

If there is one thing you can count on with Nova, it’s that he’s not going to walk many hitters. He’s only issued 1.8 BB/9, which would be his third-straight season of under two walks per nine innings. While that certainly helps his cause, he doesn’t have an overpowering arsenal with just an 8.7% swinging-strike rate and a 6.2 K/9. Facing the Cardinals is no easy task as they have averaged 5.9 runs across their last 10 games. The Braves are also in the top-10 in runs scored overall, so don’t even think about streaming Nova.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 22

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
August special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout

If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 22

Zack Wheeler, New York Mets: vs. SF, vs. WAS

Not much has gone right for the Mets this season, but Wheeler has made significant improvements. After finishing with a 5.21 ERA and a 5.03 FIP in 2017, he has a 3.75 ERA and a 3.43 FIP this year. Not only has he reduced his WHIP from 1.59 to 1.23, but he’s only allowed 0.8 HR/9 compared to 1.6 HR/9 last year. He’s on a hot streak right now, as well, allowing five runs and recording 30 strikeouts over 33 innings in his last five starts. His first start of Week 22 is a fantastic matchup considering the Giants have the third-lowest OPS on the road (.664) in baseball. The Nationals are certainly a tougher opponent, but they’ve only averaged 4.4 runs over their last 10 games.

Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox: vs. MIN, at DET

Rodon enters Week 22 having allowed three runs or fewer in seven straight starts. He has a sparkling 2.69 ERA overall, but his 4.17 FIP and .210 opponents’ BABIP would suggest luck has been on his side. His 7.2 K/9 is by far the lowest mark of his career, but his 9.7% swinging-strike rate is almost right on par with his career average. Some regression might be in his future, but it’s not likely to start this week. The Twins have the sixth-lowest OPS against lefties (.683) and the Tigers have scored the fourth-fewest runs overall (484) in the league.

Kevin Gausman, Atlanta Braves: at PIT, at MIA

Gausman has shown improvement since joining the Braves, allowing five runs across 19 innings in three starts. He only had 12 total strikeouts, but it’s very encouraging that he also allowed just one home run. Homers have been a problem for him this season since he’s allowed 1.4 HR/9 overall. The move from the American League to the National League can provide a big boost for pitchers, which could be the case even more so for Gausman since he was pitching in the AL East. Both the Pirates and the Marlins are in the bottom-third in baseball in home runs and the Marlins struggle to score runs, in general, leaving Gausman with the potential for a valuable week.

Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies: vs. SD, vs. STL

Anderson isn’t exactly at the top of his game right now as he’s allowed 21 runs over 20.1 innings in his last four starts. It’s no coincidence that three of those outings came on the road. Anderson actually has thrived pitching at Coors Field, posting a 3.47 ERA there compared to a 5.37 ERA on the road. He had similar splits last year with a 5.44 ERA on the road and a 4.14 ERA at home. The Padres struggle to score runs and have the second-most strikeouts (1,190) in baseball, leaving Anderson with a great matchup in his first start of the week. The Cardinals will be a tougher foe, but Anderson is still available in 69% of Yahoo! leagues and is someone to consider streaming if you need a starter.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 22

Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians: at BOS, at KC

Bieber has an unsightly 1.41 WHIP this season, but he’s been extremely unlucky with opponents posting a .372 BABIP against him. He has allowed a 42.2% hard-hit rate, though, an area he’ll need to improve on to start lowering that BABIP. He has shown good control by issuing 2.0 BB/9 to go along with a 9.4 K/9. His second start of the week against the Royals stands out as a great matchup, but he’ll have to face the Red Sox in Fenway Park first. The Red Sox have the second-highest OPS at home (.829) and the highest OPS against righties (.816), which could prove disastrous for Bieber. It might be wise to keep him anchored to your bench as a result.

Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox: vs. CLE, at TB

Eovaldi started off his Red Sox tenure with a bang, throwing 15 shutouts innings in his first two starts. His last two haven’t gone nearly as well as he allowed 11 runs (five earned) across 7.2 innings. His 1.04 WHIP overall this season would be the best mark of his career, but it’s been aided by an abnormally low .265 opponents’ BABIP. The Indians present a dangerous matchup because even though they haven’t been as good offensively on the road, they still have the third-most runs scored (628) in baseball. The Rays aren’t a bad matchup, but with Eovaldi having to face the Indians and his general lack of strikeout upside, he may not be worth the risk.

Robbie Erlin, San Diego Padres: at COL, at LAD

Erlin has pitched mostly out of the bullpen this season, but he’s done a nice job with a 3.33 ERA that is supported by a 3.12 FIP. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts, but he’s not someone to consider streaming this week. The Rockies have a .812 OPS at home and a .803 OPS against left-handed pitchers, both of which are in the top-three in baseball. Facing the Dodgers won’t be much easier as they have scored the seventh-most runs (594) in the league.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/24/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

July special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout

The weather might be an issue for a few games again Tuesday, but there is still a packed schedule to take advantage of for DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/24/18

James Paxton vs. San Francisco Giants
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $9,300
DraftKings = $10,200

Paxton left in the first inning of his last start due to lower-back stiffness. His bullpen session went well Saturday and he is expected to be activated from the DL to start Tuesday. He wasn’t even sidelined two weeks, so he’s unlikely to be on any sort of a pitch count. Although his ERA isn’t as good as last year, he’s pitched well with a 3.70 ERA that is supported by a 3.16 FIP. His 1.09 WHIP and 11.7 K/9 would also be the best marks of his career. The Giants are in the bottom third of baseball in runs scored and only have a .690 OPS against left-handed pitching, so look for Paxton to have a successful return.

Carlos Rodon vs. Los Angeles Angels
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $7,300

Rodon has a 3.56 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP through seven starts, which is impressive considering four of those starts came against the Red Sox, the Astros, and the Indians. He’s been somewhat lucky, though, as he has a 5.04 FIP and opponents have just a .225 BABIP against him. He has upside with a 9.0 K/9 for his career, so he can be a viable option in tournament play in the right matchup. That might be the case Tuesday considering the Angels have the fourth-lowest OPS against lefties (.661) in baseball.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/24/18

Anthony Rizzo vs. Clay Buchholz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Stadium – Wrigley Field
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $4,500

Rizzo had a lackluster first half, but he’s 16-for-31 (.516) with eight walks in his last nine games. He hasn’t homered during that stretch, but he did record five doubles and a triple. With a career .373 wOBA against right-handed pitchers, look for Rizzo to keep his hot streak going against Buchholz, who has been lucky so far with opponents posting just a .236 BABIP against him.

Yadier Molina vs. Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $4,300

Bailey has been on the DL since the end of May, but he is expected to take the mound Tuesday. He was terrible before suffering a knee injury, posting a 6.68 ERA and a 6.29 FIP across 12 starts. His bloated 1.69 WHIP was a big reason why he struggled and he doesn’t miss many bats with a 5.5 K/9. He hasn’t finished with an ERA below 5.56 or a WHIP below 1.69 since 2014, leaving the Cardinals as one of the premier stacks Tuesday. Molina has owned Bailey in his career, hitting 18-for-44 (.409) with three home runs.

Others to consider: Matt Adams (first base) and Jose Martinez (first base)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/24/18

Rougned Odor vs. Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,400

Odor got off to a horrible start this year, but he is 27-for-79 (.342) with five home runs across his last 22 games. His batting average is up to .259 overall as a result and he also has a .331 OBP, which would be the highest mark of his career. Montas allows a lot of baserunners with a 1.39 WHIP and he doesn’t record many strikeouts, either, with a 7.8% swinging-strike rate and a 5.6 K/9.

Daniel Murphy vs. Junior Guerra, Milwaukee Brewers
Stadium – Miller Park
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $4,100

Murphy came through with a home run Monday, only his second long ball of the season. However, he is now 13-for-30 (.433) in his last 10 games. Guerra’s wOBA against lefties is almost 40 points higher than it is against righties this season, leaving Murphy as a viable cheaper option on both sites.

Others to consider: Brian Dozier and Jed Lowrie

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/24/18

Matt Carpenter vs. Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $4,200
DraftKings = $5,400

Carpenter should be the centerpiece of any stack against Bailey. He had two more hits Monday and is currently on an eight-game hitting streak that has seen him hit eight home runs. Not only does he have a .402 wOBA against righties this season, but he is 19-for-39 (.497) in his career against Bailey.

Matt Chapman vs. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,900

Chapman burst onto the scene with 14 homers in 84 games last year, but he batted only .234 in the process. He has 11 home runs through 85 games this season, but his batting average is also much improved at .261. A big reason for his improvement is that he has dropped his strikeout rate by five percentage points. Minor has held lefties to a .292 wOBA, but righties have had much more success against him with a .346 wOBA.

Others to consider: Miguel Andujar and Adrian Beltre

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/24/18

Elvis Andrus vs. Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,000

Not only did Andrus extend his hitting streak to five games Monday, but he also hit his third home run of the season. He’s still got a big hole to climb out of in terms of his batting average and home run total, but his .330 OBP isn’t far off from his .337 mark last year. With Montas’ inability to keep runners off base, Andrus could be in line for another productive game.

Paul DeJong vs. Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $4,000

Get as many Cardinals hitters into your lineup as you can. DeJong is batting just .218 since he returned from the DL, but he’s also been the victim of a .250 BABIP. He has hit for a lot of power and shown even splits against righties and lefties during his brief career in the majors, so this matchup against Baily could be just what he needs to get back on track.

Others to consider: Jean Segura and Marcus Semien

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/24/18

Giancarlo Stanton vs. Yonny Chirinos, Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $4,700

Stanton went 4-for-4 with a walk Monday to raise his batting average to .285 for the season, which is actually higher than his .281 mark last year. A lot was made of his struggles to start his career with the Yankees, but Stanton has put those fears to rest and is batting .378 in July. His strikeout rate is still high at 30.5%, but he can go on power streaks like few others can around baseball.

Khris Davis vs. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $5,100

Look out, here comes Davis. After a lengthy power drought, he has three homers in his last two games. He finished 3-for-6 Monday and looks primed for a big series in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington against a horrid Rangers pitching staff. Minor has allowed 16 home runs this season, 14 of which have come against right-handed batters.

Mark Canha vs. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,500
DraftKings = $3,800

Canha didn’t play Sunday due to hamstring cramps, but he returned Monday and finished 2-for-5 with a double. He’s already played more games for the Athletics this season than he did the last two years combined and is usually a cheap option to target versus lefties since he has a 170 wRC+ against them.

Others to consider: Shin-Soo Choo and Marcell Ozuna

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
July special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout

If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 18

Luis Severino, New York Yankees: at TB, vs. KC

Severino hasn’t pitched well in his last two outings, allowing four home runs and seven runs across 10 innings. To show how dominant he was in the first half, he still has a 2.31 ERA and a 2.74 FIP overall. He doesn’t normally allow a lot of home runs with a 0.7 HR/9, so expect him to right the ship in that department sooner rather than later. Not only does he have a 10.1 K/9, but he does a great job limiting baserunners with a 1.01 WHIP. He has dominated the Rays in two previous starts this season, allowing two runs and recording 16 strikeouts over 15.1 innings. The Royals have scored the fewest runs (352) in baseball, setting up Severino for a big week.

Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox: at BAL, vs. MIN

The Blue Jays hammered Porcello for eight runs across two innings in his last start, increasing his ERA from 3.58 to 4.13. He’s pitched better this year overall, though, in large part because he lowered his WHIP from 1.40 last year to 1.24. His 38.3% percent hard-hit rate in 2017 was significantly higher than his career mark, but that has normalized this season at 31.4%. He doesn’t have the same strikeout upside that Severino does, but he has a respectable 8.6 K/9. The Orioles have already traded away their best hitter in Manny Machado, leaving their lineup even more in shambles. The Twins lineup isn’t great either and they, too, could be looking to trade away some of their better players for prospects. Even if that doesn’t happen before Porcello faces them, look for him to quickly get back on track with two valuable performances for Week 18.

Zack Wheeler, New York Mets: vs. SD, at PIT

Wheeler’s 4.44 ERA isn’t inspiring, but his 3.74 FIP indicates he’s actually having a nice rebound campaign. His 1.34 WHIP is much improved from 1.59 last year and he hasn’t allowed a lot of home runs with a 0.9 HR/9. His 8.9 K/9 is bolstered by his 11% swinging-strike rate and hitters swinging at 31.5% of his pitches outside of the strike zone, both of which would be career-highs. The Padres have scored the fourth-fewest runs (380) in baseball, setting up Wheeler to start off Week 18 on a high note. The Pirates will be a tougher matchup, but Wheeler recorded seven strikeouts over seven scoreless innings against them earlier this year. Still available in 72% of Yahoo! leagues, Wheeler has upside, even though there is some risk he might be traded.

Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox: at LAA, vs. TOR

Rodon has come back from injury to record a 3.56 ERA in seven starts, but don’t get overly confident in him just yet. His FIP is 5.04 and opponents have been unlucky with a .225 BABIP. He’s also allowed seven home runs over 43 innings. He has a career 9.0 K/9, though, and has shown enough upside that you can still gain some value if you start him in the right situation. That could be the case for Week 18 as his first start comes against an Angels squad with the fourth-lowest OPS (.663) against lefties. The Blue Jays haven’t struggled as much with a .708 OPS against left-handers, but they are much better against righties with a .742 OPS. Rodon is still available in 74% of Yahoo! leagues and presents another viable streaming opportunity.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 18

Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles: vs. BOS, vs. TB

Gausman has trouble keeping hitters in the park with a 1.5 HR/9, which would be the fourth straight season he has finished with an HR/9 of at least 1.4. Add in his 1.37 WHIP and uninspiring 7.8 K/9 and Gausman enters Week 18 with a 4.33 ERA and a 4.48 FIP. The Red Sox have scored by far the most runs (540) in baseball and destroyed Gausman for six runs in 4.2 innings earlier this season. The Rays are a better matchup, but they have scored nine runs over 10 innings in two games against Gausman. Keep him anchored to your bench.

Jose Urena, Miami Marlins: vs. ATL, vs. WAS

Urena finished with a 3.82 ERA in 2017, but he was lucky considering his 5.20 FIP. The opposite can be said for him this year as he has a 4.39 ERA, but a 3.71 FIP. He’s allowed a .304 BABIP, which is over 20 points higher than his career mark. The problem is he’s not fooling many batters with an 8.6% swinging-strike rate and a 7.4 K/9. The Braves are in the top third of baseball in runs scored and have scored seven runs over 12 innings against Urena this season. The Nationals lineup has been disappointing, but they still have plenty of potent hitters that can cause problems. With Urena’s limited strikeout upside, he’s not worth taking a chance on for Week 18.

Mike Minor, Texas Rangers: vs. OAK, at HOU

Minor was shelled by the lowly Orioles in his last start, allowing six runs (five earned) in 2.2 innings. He’s been able to stay healthy in his first season as a starting pitcher since 2014, but he hasn’t pitched well with a 4.89 ERA. He doesn’t walk many batters, but he doesn’t strikeout out many, either, with a 7.2 K/9. The Athletics are red-hot right now and have the second-highest road OPS (.788) in baseball. Minor has faced the Astros three times already, allowing 12 runs (11 earned) across 17 innings. You may have streamed him earlier this season, but stay away this week.