We have the customary packed Tuesday with 15 games making up the evening slate in DFS. With so many teams in action, there are a few different strategies available to be deployed.
Read MoreMLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/13/18
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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All 15 games Friday start in the evening, leaving one of the last big slates in DFS before the All-Star break. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
STARTING PITCHERS
Rick Porcello vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $9,600
DraftKings = $9,800
Porcello already has 11 wins for the Red Sox, matching his total from all of 2017. Having a stellar lineup behind him certainly helps, but he’s also made significant improvements. He had a 1.40 WHIP and a 1.7 HR/9 last year, but this season he has a 1.17 WHIP and a 0.9 HR/9. His 3.58 ERA is supported by a 3.48 FIP and a career-high 22.7% strikeout rate. He also pitches deep into games, logging at least six innings in all but four starts. The Blue Jays have a .749 OPS at home this year, but only a .703 OPS on the road. Porcello has already faced them twice this season, allowing six runs (five earned) and recording 14 strikeouts across 13.2 innings. On a night that is lacking many top-tier pitchers, Porcello is one of the best options available.
Brad Keller vs. Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $6,400
The Royals pitching staff has been a mess this season as their 5.35 team ERA is worst in the majors. Keller has been one of their few bright spots, though, recording a 2.52 ERA, 3.38 FIP and a 1.25 WHIP in 28 appearances, seven of which were starts. He doesn’t have much strikeout upside with a 5.2 K/9, but he’s only allowed one home run in 60.2 innings. He allowed 0.5 HR/9 during his career in the minors, so look for this to be a trend that continues. The White Sox have scored the sixth-fewest runs (365) in baseball and lost one of their hottest hitters to injury in Avisail Garcia, leaving Keller as a cheap option to consider in tournament play.
CATCHER/FIRST BASE
Brandon Belt vs. Edwin Jackson, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,400
Jackson continues to find a way to work himself into a major league rotation. He’s made three starts since joining the Athletics, giving up just six runs (five earned) in 18.1 innings. It’s hard to have much confidence in him, though, since he has finished with an ERA of 5.21 or higher in three of the last four years. Belt has a .410 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, so don’t be surprised if he gives Jackson trouble.
Carlos Santana vs. Wei-Yin Chen, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $4,000
Chen has been awful with a 6.14 ERA. His FIP is a little better at 5.09, but it’s still the highest of his career. He hasn’t been able to keep runners off base with a 1.55 WHIP and he has already allowed 11 homers in 66 innings. Strikeouts have been hard to come by for him as well with a 6.7 K/9. Santana hasn’t exactly thrived in his first season with the Phillies, either, but he’s priced low enough to be a viable option for your entry.
Others to consider: Wilson Ramos (catcher) and Yonder Alonso (first base)
SECOND BASE
Ozzie Albies vs. Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $5,200
Albies is red hot again as he is 38-for-91 (.418) with four home runs, 13 RBI and 20 runs scored in his last 20 games. He’s slowed down from the torrid home run pace he was on earlier this season, but it’s very encouraging to see him adjust and come out of the slump he was mired in from the middle of May through the middle of June. Godley allows a ton of batters to reach base with a 1.56 WHIP, so look for Albies to continue his hot streak Friday.
Rougned Odor vs. Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $4,500
Odor has finally shown signs of life again, going 14-for-44 (.318) with three home runs in his last 12 games. His overall average has improved to .242 as a result, but he only has six home runs. He has a lot of catching up to do if he is going to hit at least 30 homers for the third straight season. Cobb has a 1.62 WHIP and a 1.7 HR/9 in his first season with the Orioles, making Odor an excellent option at a reduced price, especially on FanDuel.
Others to consider: Dee Gordon and Jonathan Schoop
THIRD BASE
Jose Ramirez vs. Domingo German, New York Yankees
Stadium – Progressive Field
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $5,800
Ramirez homered against Thursday and has four home runs in his last three games. The fact that it came off of Luis Severino was especially impressive since Severino has only allowed 0.7 HR/9. He’ll face a much easier opponent in German on Friday, who has had problems keeping hitters inside the park with a 1.7 HR/9.
Mike Moustakas vs. James Shields, Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,600
The Royals have already started to trade off some veterans and it makes sense that they look to move Moustakas as well. His batting average has regressed from .272 last season to .256 this year, but he’s still provided plenty of power with 19 home runs. Even though the Royals don’t score much, he still has 58 RBI. Lefties give him trouble, but he has a .358 wOBA against right-handed pitchers.
Others to consider: Nolan Arenado and Travis Shaw
SHORTSTOP
Trevor Story vs. Christian Bergman, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $5,300
Bergman made one start for the Mariners back in May but has mostly pitched in the minors this season. The fact that he had a 4.78 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP at Triple-A doesn’t really bode well for his chances pitching at Coors Field on Friday. Story mashes at home and is one of several Rockies’ hitters to target for your entry.
Elvis Andrus vs. Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $4,100
Andrus only has 153 plate appearances this season due to injury, but he’s been a disappointment with just two home runs and one stolen base. After attempting 35 steals last year, he only has two attempts this season. His strikeout rate is down and his .281 BABIP is well below his .313 career mark, so he does have room for improvement in the second half. Considering Cobb’s struggles, this might be just what he needs to get back on track.
Others to consider: Xander Bogaerts and Scott Kingery
OUTFIELD
Charlie Blackmon vs. Christian Bergman, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $4,200
DraftKings = $5,500
Blackmon has historically hit about the same amount of home runs on the road as he has at home, but he has a career .343 batting average at Coors Field compared to .263 on the road. He also has a career .371 wOBA against righties, making him an outfielder worth paying up for versus Bergman.
Carlos Gonzalez vs. Christian Bergman, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,700
As we continue to target lefties against Bergman, Gonzalez presents another excellent option at a favorable price. He’s not nearly the hitter that he was in his prime, but he’s quietly batting .275 with 10 home runs in 73 games. He also has a .357 wOBA against right-handers.
Steven Duggar vs. Edwin Jackson, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $2,300
DraftKings = $3,700
Duggar only had four home runs in Triple-A this year before being called up, but he did slug 27 doubles to go along with a .354 OBP. He’s not likely to play much against left-handed pitching, but he should be in the lineup against the right-handed Jackson. He could be worth the gamble in tournament play based on the salary relief he can provide for your budget.
Others to consider: Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich
MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/16/18
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/16/18
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As is the case most Wednesday’s, we’ve got game spread out between the day and evening slates for DFS today. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
STARTING PITCHERS
Walker Buehler vs. Miami Marlins
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $9,500
DraftKings = $8,500
Regarded as one of the top prospects in baseball, Buehler has continued to shine in the majors. He’s making a case to stick in the Dodgers’ rotation even when they get healthy, posting a 1.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 11.0 K/9 through four starts. His FIP stands at 1.64 and he’s allowed a .288 BABIP, so his supporting numbers further highlight his strong start. His first start of the year came against these same Marlins, holding them scoreless over five innings while recording five strikeouts. Since they have scored the fewest runs (142) and hit the fewest home runs (31) in baseball, Buehler could again be in line for a valuable performance.
J.A. Happ vs. New York Mets
Stadium – Citi Field
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $9,400
Happ’s 4.80 ERA doesn’t instill confidence, but it is a bit inflated after he allowed seven runs in 3.1 innings in his last start against the Mariners. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of his eight outings and has a career-high 11.2 K/9, led by an 11.7% swinging strike rate. The Mets have one of the worst offenses in the league, scoring the sixth-fewest runs (165). They also have the worst OPS against left-handed pitchers (.593) by a wide margin, leaving Happ as a viable option in tournament play if you are playing the early slate.
CATCHER/FIRST BASE
Carlos Santana vs. Andrew Cashner, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,900
DratfKings =$4,900
Santana has finally woken up after a slow start, batting .289 with five home runs in May. He still only has a .216 BABIP this month, leaving him with even more room for improvement. Cashner is off to a bad start as well with a 5.74 FIP and 1.50 WHIP through eight outings. Santana has hit right-handers well in his career and has a .337 wOBA against them this year despite all his struggles, so don’t sleep on him Wednesday.
Jose Osuna vs. Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
Stadium = PNC Park
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $3,000
Santiago has made 11 appearances for the White Sox this season, but Wednesday will mark only his third start. He hasn’t pitched well, posting a 5.60 ERA, 5.67 FIP, and 1.68 WHIP. He started 14 of his 15 games last season and wasn’t any better, finishing with a 5.63 ERA, 6.02 FIP, and 1.44 WHIP. Osuna is batting cleanup in this game and already has two home runs in 10 plate appearances against lefties this year, so he might be worth the risk in tournament play. Of note, he is only first base eligible on DraftKings as he is listed as an outfielder on FanDuel.
Others to consider: Anthony Rizzo (first base) and Wilson Contreras (catcher)
SECOND BASE
Javier Baez vs, Brandon McCarthy, Atlanta Braves
Stadium – SunTrust Field
FanDuel = $4,500
DratfKings = $4,500
McCarthy got off to a hot start by allowing three runs or fewer in each of his first four starts but he has allowed at least five runs in three of his last four. His last two outings were particularly concerning since he gave up 14 runs to the Giants and Marlins, neither of which have a great lineup. The Cubs present an excellent stacking opportunity Wednesday, Baez included.
Howie Kendrick vs. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees
Stadium – Nationals Park
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $3,300
Sabathia’s 2.23 ERA and 1.02 WHIP look great, but he’s been a bit lucky with opponents posting just a .255 BABIP. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff anymore with a 6.9 K/9 this year, but he’s helped make up for it with a career-low 1.2 BB/9. Kendrick recorded a .385 wOBA against lefties last year, leaving him with a favorable chance to provide value.
Others to consider: Cesar Hernandez and Joey Wendle
THIRD BASE
Jose Ramirez vs. Ryan Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $4,800
DraftKings = $5,100
Ramirez is rolling right now, hitting 8-for-20 with three home runs and three doubles in his last five games. The lefty Carpenter did make one start for the Tigers earlier this year, allowing three runs in three innings against the Pirates. He wasn’t exactly pitching well in Triple-A this season either with a 5.01 ERA and 1.43 WHIP across seven starts. Ramirez finished with a .395 wOBA against lefties last year and has been even better with a .419 mark this season. He is one of several Indians hitters who could excel in this game.
Justin Turner vs. Caleb Smith, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $3,700
Turner played in his first game Tuesday after missing the start of the season with a wrist injury. The Dodgers badly need his bat in their lineup with the loss of Corey Seager (elbow), so he is certainly a welcomed addition. He mashed left-handers for a 206 wRC+ last year, so don’t hesitate to add him to your entry even though it’s only his second game back.
Others to consider: Eugenio Suarez and Daniel Descalso
SHORTSTOP
Francisco Lindor vs. Ryan Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $5,500
Lindor’s 15-game hitting streak was snapped Tuesday, but that’s mostly because he didn’t get a chance to do much damage, drawing a walk in four of his five plate appearances. He’s one of the hottest hitters in the league right now and already has eight home runs in May, making him yet another Indians’ hitter you want to try and squeeze into your entry.
Brandon Crawford vs. Matt Harvey, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,300
Speaking of shortstops on a hot streak, Crawford is batting .412 with 1.017 OPS in May. Harvey pitched well in his first start with the Reds, but he still only had two strikeouts in four innings. After he allowed a .426 wOBA to left-handed hitters last year, Crawford could have a good chance of keeping his hot streak alive for at least one more game.
Others to consider: Trea Turner and Chris Taylor
OUTFIELD
Odubel Herrera vs. Andrew Cashner, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,800
Herrera has been hot out of the gate, batting .360 with a .992 OPS. He likely won’t be able to sustain that average considering his .400 BABIP, but it is encouraging that his walk rate is up while his strikeout rate is down. His .436 wOBA against righties this year makes him another Phillies’ hitter to target against Cashner.
Nomar Mazara vs. Christian Bergman, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,200
Bergman will be making his first start in the majors Wednesday, although he hasn’t exactly dominated in the minors this year with a 3.40 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He’s had trouble keeping runners off base in his previous appearances in the majors, posting a 1.50 WHIP for his career. Mazara only has a .272 wOBA in his career against lefties but has been much better against righties with a .340 wOBA.
Joey Gallo vs. Christian Bergman, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $4,000
It’s all or nothing when it comes to Gallo, who has 12 home runs despite batting .199 and striking out in one-third of his plate appearances. Not only has Bergman struggled to keep runners off base, but he also has a 1.6 HR/9 for his career to go along with only a 5.5 K/9. This is the type of matchup that Gallo thrives off of.
Others to consider: Kyle Schwarber and Denard Span
MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/15/18
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/15/18
Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout
With only one day game Tuesday, we’ve got plenty of options to choose from in DFS for the evening slate. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
STARTING PITCHERS
Gerrit Cole vs. Los Angeles Angels
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $11,800
DraftKings = $13,900
There has been no slowing down Cole, who has a 1.43 ERA and 1.54 FIP through eight starts. His .257 BABIP allowed is low, but he largely has seen his numbers improve because of his lofty 13.7 K/9. He has recorded at least eight strikeouts in all but one of his starts this season and has only allowed three total home runs. Even though he’ll be facing a tough Angels lineup that is in the top-five in baseball in runs scored, his strikeout upside still makes him a great option Tuesday.
Jack Flaherty vs. Minnesota Twins
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $7,300
Flaherty is one of the bright young prospects in the Cardinals system, posting a 2.73 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 9.1 K/9 during his career in the minors. He has kept hitters in the park as well with a 0.5 HR/9. This will be his third Major League start this season and his first two brought mixed results. He allowed one earned run and recorded nine strikeouts over five innings in his first start against the Brewers, but then he allowed three runs while recording only two strikeouts across five innings against the Pirates. Considering his cheap price and the fact that the Twins have scored the fourth-fewest runs (158) in baseball, he could be worth the risk in tournament play.
CATCHER/FIRST BASE
Carlos Santana vs. Andrew Cashner, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,900
DratfKings = $4,400
Santana has broken out after a slow start, batting .289 with five home runs in May. He still only has a .216 BABIP this month, leaving him with even more room for improvement. Cashner is off to a bad start as well with a 5.74 FIP and 1.50 WHIP through eight starts. Santana has hit right-handers well in his career and has a .337 wOBA against them this year despite all his struggles, making him an excellent option to consider Tuesday.
Nick Goodrum vs. Josh Tomlin, Cleveland Indians
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $2,500
DraftKings = $3,100
Tomlin immediately comes to mind as someone you want to stack against since he has an 8.06 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. He’s never been a big strikeout pitcher either with a 6.1 K/9 for his career. The problem is the Tigers are depleted by injuries with Miguel Cabrera (hamstring), Jeimer Candelario (wrist) and Leonys Martin (hamstring) all on the DL. Goodrum is playing every day as a result, hitting 8-for-17 with three home runs and two doubles in his last four games. At this price, he could be well worth the risk in tournament play.
Others to consider: Salvador Perez (catcher) and John Hicks (catcher)
SECOND BASE
Asdrubal Cabrera vs. Jaime Garcia, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Citi Field
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $3,900
The Mets will be facing the lefty Garcia, which is not good news since they have the lowest OPS against lefties (.568) in baseball. Cabrera is one player who does hit them well, posting a .407 wOBA against them last year and .364 wOBA this season. Garica has struggled to keep runners off base with a 1.57 WHIP, so Cabrera might be the one Mets’ hitter you want to use in this matchup.
Whit Merrifield vs. Anthony Banda, Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Kauffman Stadium
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,300
Merrifield has followed up his .288 average and .784 OPS from 2017 with a .287 average and .783 OPS this year. His power numbers are slightly down, but he’s also shown a better eye at the plate with a 9.0% walk rate. The Rays will start the lefty Banda, who is making his first appearance in the majors this year. Merrifield has a .384 wOBA against lefties for his career, making him a nice option for your entry, especially considering his price on FanDuel.
Others to consider: Cesar Hernandez and Jonathan Schoop
THIRD BASE
Eugenio Suarez vs. Ty Blach, San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $4,400
Suarez’s .297 BABIP is actually below his .314 career mark, but he is still batting a career-high .286. He has cut down on his strikeouts and has a superb 50% hard-hit rate, which has helped him get off to a hot start. After finishing with a 135 wRC+ against left-handers last year, he is mashing them for a 278 wRC+ in 2018.
Miguel Andujar vs. Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
Stadium – Nationals Park
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,300
Andujar took over as the everyday third baseman for the Yankees when Brandon Drury (impaired vision) went on the DL. The Yankees actually activated Drury on Monday but optioned him to Triple-A to continue his rehab. There has been no rush to bring him back with how well Andujar has played and he may not get the job back even when he is deemed fully healthy. Andujar is currently on a six-game hitting streak and although he hasn’t recorded an extra-base hit during that stretch, he is a viable option if you want to save money at third base.
Others to consider: Jose Ramirez and Rafael Devers
SHORTSTOP
Francisco Lindor vs. Francisco Liriano, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $4,800
DraftKings = $5,200
Lindor only had a .288 BABIP heading into May, leading to a .245 average. He’s been on a heater since the new month began, batting .450 with a .442 BABIP and eight home runs. He is striking out more this year, but he also has a 43.1% hard-hit rate that is by far the highest of his career. With a career .365 wOBA against lefties, Lindor could provide significant production against Liriano.
Chris Taylor vs. Wei-Yin Chen, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,000
Chen has allowed 13 runs in his last two starts, resulting in a 10.22 ERA and 1.95 WHIP through three outings. He was never a big strikeout pitcher, but he has only a 4.4 K/9 during that stretch. He’s had control issues as well with a 5.8 BB/9. The Dodgers lineup hasn’t been great this season, but Taylor, with a .355 wOBA against lefties last year, could provide value if you don’t want to pay up for Lindor.
Others to consider: Manny Machado and Jean Segura
OUTFIELD
Odubel Herrera vs. Andrew Cashner, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,400
Herrera couldn’t be off to a much better start, batting .360 with a .992 OPS. He likely won’t be able to sustain that average considering his .400 BABIP, but it is encouraging that his walk rate is up while his strikeout rate is down. His .436 wOBA against righties this year makes him another Phillies’ hitter who could provide value.
Nomar Mazara vs. Mike Leake, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,100
The Rangers lineup suffered another tough blow over the weekend with Adrian Beltre reaggravating a hamstring injury that has already cost him one stint on the DL this season. He’ll likely be placed back on it Tuesday, joining Elvis Andrus (elbow) as two key pieces that they will sorely miss. They’ll still get a great matchup against Leake on Tuesday though, who has a 5.72 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Mazara has a .380 wOBA against righties this year and isn’t overly expensive, making him someone to strongly consider.
Shin-Soo Choo vs. Mike Leake, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,400
Choo is a cheap option who should come to mind against right-handed pitchers since he has a .382 wOBA against them in his career. His .245 average this season isn’t great, but he’s still striking the ball well with a 42.4% hard-hit rate. He also has hit Leake well, going 6-for-17 with two home runs and two doubles against him in his career. Using both Mazara and Choo in your entry could be a nice mini-stack to take advantage of.
Others to consider: Jorge Soler and Joey Gallo
Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: First Base
*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*
Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: First Base
First base is one of the deepest positions in fantasy baseball. Not only are there several elite power hitters playing the position, but there are also many who can be difference makers in terms of batting average in your league. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some first basemen who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.
The Top Three
Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks
Simply put, Goldschmidt is a monster. He has played at least 155 games in four of the last five years, recording at least 33 home runs, 110 RBI and 103 runs scored in three of those seasons. The one season where he didn’t reach those thresholds was in 2016 when he had 24 home runs, 95 RBI, and 106 runs scored. However, he made up for it by stealing a career-high 32 bases, which was the sixth-most in baseball that year. His counting stats are great and he has a career .299 batting average and a career .399 OBP, but it’s his ability to steal bases that makes him the best first baseman in fantasy. He has swiped at least 18 bases four times in his career and should continue to produce in that department this season. It’s not unreasonable to think that he will hit fewer home runs due to the addition of the humidor at Chase Field, but his overall numbers still make him stand out above the rest at his position.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
Votto had one of the best seasons of his career last year, batting .320 with 36 home runs, 100 RBI, and 16 runs scored. He posted a lofty .420 OBP, marking the seventh time in the last eight seasons that he recorded an OBP of at least .400. His eye at the plate is tremendous, swinging at a career-low 15.4% of pitches outside the strike zone in 2017. He’s been healthy as well, playing at least 158 games four of the last five years. He’s only hit at least 30 home runs twice in his career, so don’t be surprised if he sees some regression in that area this season. His 38% fly ball percentage last year was significantly higher than his career average of 33.5%. However, taking into consideration his production across the board, Votto is the second best fantasy option at first base for 2018.
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
This was a close race between Freeman and Anthony Rizzo for the third spot. Rizzo has been extremely consistent, hitting at least 31 home runs and recording at least 101 RBI in three straight seasons. Freeman’s breakout in the power department came in 2016, hitting 34 home runs to go along with 91 RBI. He played in only 117 games last year but still managed to mash 28 round trippers. The reason Freeman gets the edge over Rizzo is because of his ability to hit for a higher average. Don’t get me wrong, Rizzo is no slouch, hitting at least .273 in four straight seasons. However, he’s never hit above .292 in his career. Freeman has batted at least .302 in three of the last five years and is a career .290 hitter. In a league where batting averages are being sacrificed for power, Freeman’s ability to provide excellent value in both areas makes him the third best first baseman heading into this season.
Overvalued Players
Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies
Hoskins will play the outfield for the Phillies this season but is still eligible at first base in fantasy. He burst onto the scene in 2017, hitting 18 home runs and recording 48 RBI in only 50 games. While that is impressive, that’s not a sustainable pace over the course of a full season. His average could actually improve this year though as he hit .259 despite a .241 BABIP. He is going to be a valuable player and is a vital part of the Phillies future, but his current ADP in the NFCB is 50.54. That’s seventh-highest among first baseman and higher than players such Nelson Cruz (55.60) and Daniel Murphy (68) when looking across all positions. First base is deep, so it might be a wise move to pass on Hoskins if forced to select him that early.
Carlos Santana, Philadelphia Phillies
The second Phillie to make this list, Santana will actually man first base this season. He’s been healthy throughout his career, playing in at least 152 games in six of the last seven years. He’s a fine player, but his fantasy value is limited in today’s current state of the game. Outside of an aberration season where he hit 34 home runs in 2016, he has never hit more than 27 home runs in a season. He has actually hit 23 homers or less in four of the last six seasons. He’s not going to hit for average either, batting just .249 for his career. His current ADP is 172.05, ahead of other first basemen including Matt Carpenter (180.19) and Yuli Gurriel (208.84). I’d much rather take a chance on someone with a higher upside than Santana based on where he is being selected in drafts.
Undervalued Players
Greg Bird, New York Yankees
Bird was plagued by injuries last year, limiting him to just 48 games. He was awful when he was on the field, batting just .190. He still flashed his power potential though with nine home runs. That was right on pace with his only other appearance in the majors in 2015 when he hit 11 home runs in 46 games. The difference was in 2015 he hit .261 with a .319 BABIP. He only had a .194 BABIP last year, so expect significant improvement in his average this year. In six minor league seasons, Bird hit .283 with a .397 OBP. The Yankees lineup is loaded as well, which should afford him with plenty of opportunities to produce. His current ADP is only 152.87, which is excellent value considering his upside. Don’t be surprised if he hits .270 with around 30 home runs this year.
Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants
Belt was limited to 104 games last year due to a concussion, but he still tied his career high with 18 home runs. While he regressed to a .214 batting average, he had just a .284 BABIP compared to his career BABIP of .333. He still had a 38.4% hard hit percentage and swung at a career-low 22% of pitches outside the strike zone. He’ s only turning 30 years old at the start of the season and has a better offense around him this year with the additions of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. His ADP is insanely low at 304.29, making him someone to target late in your drafts.
MLB Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and Off-Season Signings
*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*
MLB Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and Off-Season Signings
It might hard to believe it if you live in the NorthEast, but baseball season is just around the corner. With only about a month left before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, the time is now to start preparing for your fantasy baseball draft. In the first of our season preview series, we’ll take a look at some familiar players who have joined new teams and discuss the impact it will have on their fantasy value.
Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
The Yankees rebuild certainly didn’t take long. After trading away several veterans in the middle of the 2016 season, the Yankees progressed faster than expected in 2017, losing in the American League Championship Series to the Houston Astros. One of the big reasons for their success was the strength of their offense, which finished second in runs scored and first in home runs in all of baseball.
So how did they improve their team for this year? By bringing in another power hitter of course. The Yankees took advantage of the Marlins need to slash payroll, trading for the reigning NL MVP in Stanton with Starlin Castro being the only player of significance to the major league roster that they gave up.
Entering the 2017 season, Stanton had played 123 games or less in four of the previous five seasons. He managed to stay healthy though, missing only three games all year. He cashed in the added at-bats, setting career-highs in home runs (59), RBI (132) and runs scored (123). Unlike many of the games elite home run hitters, he still managed to hit .281 and finished with a career-low 23.6% strikeout percentage.
Stanton will now team up with Aaron Judge to form one of the elite power-hitting combinations in the league. It will be hard for Stanton to play 159 games again this year, but the good news is that he will get some time at designated hitter, which should help keep him fresh. He’s going to be part of a potent overall lineup and should again finish with excellent counting stats. From a batting average perspective, he might not experience significant regression either as his .288 BABIP was actually the lowest of his career. Expect him to have another valuable campaign and be a borderline first-round pick in fantasy.
Dee Gordon, Seattle Mariners
Another member of the Marlins fire sale was Gordon, who was shipped to the Mariners and will now play center field. Gordon led the majors with 60 stolen bases last year, marking the third time in the last four seasons that he has stolen at least 58 bases. The only time he didn’t was when he was limited to 79 games in 2016 due to a suspension, finishing with 30 steals.
While most known for his ability to steal bases, Gordon’s fantasy value is much more than just that one category. He hit at least .308 in two of the last three seasons and scored 114 runs last year. He only has a 15.1% strikeout percentage for his career, which allows him to leg out some extra hits due to his speed.
Luckily for this season, he will still be eligible at second base and will eventually get you the added value of dual-position eligibility. He will be part of a powerful lineup that features Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager hitting behind him, so he should have plenty of opportunities to score runs again this year. Even without much power, he should still finish as one of the more valuable second base eligible players in fantasy, especially when you consider the scarcity of stolen bases.
Andrew McCutchen, San Francisco Giants
The Giants desperately needed to find offense this winter, especially in their outfield. They decided to swing a deal with the Pirates for McCutchen, providing a significant boost to their lineup. While his stats don’t jump off the page, McCutchen has hit at least 21 home runs and recorded at least 79 RBI in each of the last seven seasons. He also does an excellent job of getting on base, posting an OBP of at least .363 in all but one season during his career.
While McCutchen can still provide value, it’s important to note that he doesn’t really excel in any one category. He used to provide value on the base paths, stealing at least 20 bases in each of the first five seasons of his career. However, he has stolen 11 bases or less in each of the last three seasons. He batted a respectable .279 last year, but that’s not going to be a difference maker in your league. He’s still someone to consider on draft day, but make sure you are drafting him based on his current production, not his high-profile name. If you are drafting based on the latter, you will likely overpay for him on draft day.
Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants
The Giants were serious about making major additions to their lineup, also acquiring Longoria from the Rays. Longoria had spent his entire 10-year career with the Rays, becoming the face of the franchise. He’s had some excellent run-producing seasons, hitting at least 30 home runs four times and driving in at least 100 runs five times in his career. He’s also been extremely reliable, playing at least 160 games in each of the last four years.
Longoria is still a fine player, but he’s not nearly as valuable in fantasy as he once was. Besides an outlier season where he hit 36 home runs in 2016, he has hit 22 home runs or less in three of the last four seasons. He doesn’t do a great job of getting on base either, posting an OBP of .328 or lower in each of the last four years. Third base is a deep position in fantasy, which could leave Longoria outside the top-15 at the position.
Wade Davis, Colorado Rockies
The Rockies were the beneficiaries of one of the better surprises at closer last year, getting 41 saves from Greg Holland. The majority of Holland’s success came over the first half of the season when he recorded 28 of his saves and a sparkling 1.62 ERA. The second half was much more of a struggle, finishing with a 6.38 ERA in 24 innings. The Rockies decided not to bring him back for 2018, instead signing Davis to a hefty three-year contract.
Davis had 32 saves for the Cubs last year and a 2.30 ERA, which was actually the first time he finished with an ERA above 2.00 since 2013. He also posted a 12.1 K/9, which was the second highest of his career. When a pitcher moves to Coors Field, there is always a concern that their stats could regress pitching in such a hitter-friendly environment. Davis did give up six home runs last year, which were three more than the previous three seasons combined. However, his ground ball to flyball ratio was 0.70, which is very close to his career ratio of 0.67.
The big increase was in his home run to flyball percentage, which was 9.1%. That’s significantly up from his career mark of 6.5%. While I don’t think he’ll come close to replicating the excellent three-year stretch he had with the Royals prior to last season, he should still finish the season as a top-10 closer.
Carlos Santana, Philadelphia Phillies
The rebuilding Phillies added a significant bat to their lineup, signing Santana to a three-year contract early on in free agency. He’ll take over as their everyday first baseman after spending the first eight years of his career with Cleveland.
Santana had spectacular power season in 2016, hitting 34 home runs and slugging .498. Other than that season, he’s never hit more than 27 home runs or slugged above .457 in any of his full seasons in the majors. He hasn’t been a significant run producer either, recording 87 RBI or less in each season of his career.
The positives for Santana is that he gets on base, posting an OBP of at least .363 in five of the last six years. He’s also done a nice job cutting down on his strikeouts, with his strikeout percentage decreasing in each of the last three seasons. However, based on his low batting average and limited ceiling, he’s a borderline top-20 first baseman.
Marcell Ozuna, St. Louis Cardinals
Ozuna established himself as one of the top outfielders in the league last year, finishing the season batting .312 with 37 home runs, 124 RBI, and 93 runs scored. He showed an improved eye at the plate, setting a career best with a 9.4% walk percentage, which was more than two percent higher than any of his previous four seasons.
Like Stanton and Gordon, he too was a part of the fire sale in Miami and will now roam the outfield for the Cardinals. His power will be a welcomed addition as the Cardinals finished in the bottom half of the league in home runs last season.
The Marlins were certainly a flawed team, but they had a potent lineup with Ozuna, Stanton, Gordon, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto and Justin Bour. The Cardinals have some talented hitters, but their lineup doesn’t project to be as deep as the Marlins was last year. Ozuna will still likely be a top 15-to-20 outfielder, but he could experience some regression in counting stats.
Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros
The defending World Seris champs aren’t resting on their laurels this winter, making a big trade with the Pirates to add Cole to their starting rotation. The Astros already have one of the best lineups in baseball, but now boast a solid starting trio of Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, and Cole.
Cole’s best season with the Pirates came in 2015 when he finished 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 208 innings. However, his numbers have declined in the two years since, finishing last year 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA and 196 strikeouts in 203 innings. His main problem in 2017 was a massive increase in home runs allowed. He only allowed 29 home runs from 2014 through 2016 but gave up a whopping 31 in 2017 alone. When you add in the fact that he also issued a career-high 55 walks, you get the big jump in ERA.
There is a reason for optimism this year though as his ground ball to flyball ratio was 0.85 last year, which is almost right on pace with his career mark. His home run to flyball percentage jumped all the way up to 11.3%, almost double his previous career high. With some regression to the norm this season, Cole should get his ERA back down under 4.00. He’s a reliable source for strikeouts and should have plenty of chances to rack up wins on a great team, making him a top-25 starting pitcher with upside.
MLB Fantasy Lineup July 5, 2017
*Austyn Varney*
MLB Fantasy Lineup – July 5, 2017
Welcome to Lineup Lab’s Best MLB Fantasy Lineup for July 5th, where we feature our top players for our MLB Lineup Optimizer on Fanduel and Draftkings. Put your favorite stacks from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the MLB Player Lab.
Starting Pitchers
Alex Wood
Opponent – Vs. ARI
Park – Dodger Stadium
Vegas Favorite (LAD -220)
Vegas Total (8.5)
We saw Clayton Kershaw dominate these D-backs last night, going 7 innings, striking out 12 and grabbing the W. I’m by no means comparing the bottom-line talent of these 2, but Wood and Kershaw have a lot in common. They are both funky lefties with weird deliveries and dominant 5-pitch arsenals. Wood has picked up a lot from Kershaw and I’m sure the NL West foes are very appreciative. Wood is 26 years old and has been in the majors for 3 years, though never showing this type of consistency and production. He’s striking out over 10 batters per 9 innings and walking barely over 2. He’s been able to pinpoint his fastball and hold better command of his offspeed, which is his 2-strike out pitch. He’s holding a .220 wOBA against righties and a .217 against lefties. There is no reason to dislike this kid as a pitcher and I will argue that he is top 10 right now in the league. The match-up tonight with the Diamondbacks tonight is good, but not great. The D-backs hit lefties better as a team, but also lose Peralta and Lamb, who are big reasons for their overall success.The D-Backs also see a ballpark downgrade from Chase to Dodger Stadium, where the ball dies in the outfield. Wood is inherently risky to a degree, but still the safest on this slate and at his price, don’t be scared in any format.
Trevor Bauer
Opponent – Vs. SDP
Park – Progressive Field
Vegas Favorite (CLE -215)
Vegas Total (9.5)
Trevor Bauer is not a highly-valued DFS pitcher. He’s not going to dominate a good team and he’s never going to burst out as one of the league’s top pitchers. He is Trevor Bauer and you know the risk you get with that name. He will still walk his batters and go 3-2 a bunch of times. Giving up big innings after that is really the only way he gets lit up. He’s been pretty average against both lefties and righties, though a 2.96 xFIP against righties suggests positive regression going forward. He’s also striking out nearly 10 batters per 9 innings and holding batters to a dub 32% hard contact rate. He faces the Padres, who got absolutely obliterated by Corey Kluber last night. As a team, they hold a .301 wOBA against righties and strikeout at an astronomical 25.6% rate. Vegas only projects 2 teams to score under 4 tonight and that’s the Padres and Diamondbacks. If that turns out to be true, we’re certainly in a perfect position. Speaking of pricing, Bauer is pretty cheap. You can use that to your advantage on a slate that has some very nice and expensive offenses to choose from.
Offensive Stacks
Cleveland Indians Vs. San Diego Padres (Luis Perdomo)
Park – Progressive Field
Luis Perdomo is used to pitching in pitcher-friendly Petco Park, so this move into Progressive Field is something he surely isn’t looking forward to. He’ll face off with the Indians, who are one of the more lethal offenses in the game. The Indians are currently projected to put up 5.75 runs and trail just the Rockies in terms of implied team totals. Perdomo has struggled against lefties more so in 2017 (.380 wOBA), but flipped that in 2016 with a .355 wOBA against righties. His BABIP is slightly lower however, so we should start to see righties put up some numbers. The problem with the Indians is that they almost have too much to choose. Starting at 1B, you’ll have to pick between a and Edwin Encarnacion. It will come down to batting order on that one. Next, you move into Kipnis and Brantley, who are the safest of the bunch. They hit righties well and should be right at the top of that order. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez seems like they should be mainstays of the stack, but it’s just not a reality. Both FD and DK will cap you, forcing you to roster a max of 4 or 5 of these guys. All in all, the offense is not at all concentrated and you can;t be surprised to see production come from anywhere.
Main Stack – Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez
Sneaky Stack – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez
Colorado Rockies Vs. Cincinnati Reds (Scott Feldman)
Park – Coors Field
I know, I’m getting a little too sneaky with this one. All jokes aside, the Rockies are projected to put up 6.33 runs and that’s not something you can ignore. They face off with Scott Feldman, who has gone through some weird times as a major leaguer. He’s bounced from to bad and back about 4 times, while sitting right in the middle right now. He’s allowed a .320 combined wOBA and hasn’t gotten blown up very often. However, I don’t think it’s going to last much longer. He has actually seen a severe dip in velocity and that may be why hitters are struggling. He held a .380 wOBA against leftie sin 2016 and I expect that number to return there by the time it’s said and done. As for the Rockies offense, they aren’t nearly as deep as the Indians, and especially with the injury to Desmond. Blackmon and CarGo are the 2 obvious ones and I don’t see stacking the Rockies without both. After that, Arenado and Reynolds are next. They are both safe and the 2 guys I would stick in my cash game stack with Blackmon and CarGo. Moving a bit lower in the order, keep an eye out for Raimel Tapia and Trevor Story. They both hold some very solid upside in this match-up and very well deserve a spot on some GPP’s. In terms of ownership, I think it will be relatively low for Coors Field. Take advantage.
Main Stack – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds
Sneaky Stack – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Mark Reynolds, Trevor Story