NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football: Week 6 Cash and GPP Plays

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Cesar Becerra on October 12, 20170 Comments

The Week 6 teams on bye aren’t as difficult to overcome compared to last week’s teams. This week the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, and Seattle Seahawks are all on bye. That being said there are a few games that are worth targeting if you are starting your research with Vegas totals. There are 7 games with a game total over 46 points, including the most appealing of them all in New Orleans (50). Let’s take a look at some plays this week from each position.

Quarterback:

NFL Lineups Daily Fantasy Football - Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints - Lineup lab

As I’ve mentioned throughout this year, quarterback ownership is almost always spread out equally, that there rarely is a QB that we see over 20% owned. That figures to be the case this week with several good options on the slate.

Drew Brees (DK $7,200, FD $8,600) – Brees is surprisingly not the highest priced QB on neither DK or FD. He’s the third priced QB on both sites and is in a pretty damn good spot. If you’re a football fan, you’re well aware of Bree’s home and road splits. Brees has averaged over 300 yards and has had a 2:1 TD to interception ratio in dome stadiums. This week Brees is at home coming off a bye against a Lions team that has been over performing to start the season. To add more frosting to the cake, Brees is a slight home favorite implied to score 27.25 points. This game has the slates highest over/under (50), so Vegas is expecting these two teams to light up the scoreboard. Brees will be popular this week.

Matthew Stafford (DK $ 6,500, FD $8,500) – For all the reasons mentioned in the Brees section, I think Stafford will be popular on this slate. He’s $700 cheaper on DK than Brees so the savings could make him higher owned than Brees, but on FD he’s essentially a pick ‘em with only $100 separating the two. This game is one of the few games with a high total and a relatively close spread so if any game is going to shoot out; it will likely be this one.

Deshaun Watson (DK $6,700, FD $7,900) – Watson is another QB I expect will garnish some ownership based on his recent play. Watson has averaged 31.8 DK points over the past 3 weeks, and his price spike reflects his performance. He does have a good matchup as a home favorite against the Browns who are worst in the league in adjusted fantasy points allowed (26.3). His rushing ability gives him a nice floor for cash games, but in gpps, I like fading him for my favorite quarterback on the week (next player). He’s not a bad play at all, but he’s gotten to be a little too expensive for my taste, especially when you consider that most of his TD production last week came during garbage time against the Chiefs.

Kirk Cousins (DK $6,800, FD $ 7,800) – Cousins is the same price point as the last two QBs I mentioned above, and I feel he will be the least owned, which is why I like him for gpps. Cousins is coming off of a bye week and facing the 49ers who are coming off their second consecutive road overtime loss. Cousins and the Redskins go into week 6 with the highest implied team total (28.8) and are 10.5 point favorites. The 49ers are probably the best winless team in the league, losing 4 games by a combined 11 points, but their secondary can be attacked. Per PFF, the 49ers have 3 of the worst rated corners. Dontae Johnson rated no. 108 of 109, Rashard Robinson is no. 104, and K’Waun Williams is no. 99. The Redskins should be able to attack through the air, especially with Rob Kelly expected to be out.

Bargain Barrel:

Carson Palmer, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett

Running Backs:

NFL Lineups Daily Fantasy Football - DeVonta Freeman - Lineuplab.com

Kareem Hunt (DK $8,200, FD $9,300) – I wasn’t going to write up Hunt because by now you should be aware of the amount of volume he’s been getting this season. On DK he’s $1,400 cheap than Bell, which is insane when you factor in that the Chiefs are home favorites over the Steelers. Hunt lost a lot of fantasy points last week with two flukey touchdowns by Charcandrick West. This week Hunt is going up against the Steelers who are 31st DVOA against the run and just got burned for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns from top rookie Leonard Fournette. Hunt is currently projected as our top RB this week over Bell, regardless of price.

Leonard Fournette (DK, $8,000, FD, $8,600) – Speaking of rookies. It’s about time to start talking about Fournette on a consistent basis. He’s averaging 24 touches per game and has scored in all but one game this season. There’s no secret the Jags are trying to keep the ball out of Bortles’ hands as much, which leads to Fournette carrying the offensive workload. Through the first 5 weeks, Fournette has received 70% of the carries and has been targeted 15 times. He’s going up against a Rams defense that ranks 32nd in aFPA (32.8). The Jags are a slight home favorite, so that also bodes well for Fournette.

Devonta Freeman (DK $7,400, FD $ 8,500) – Freeman is the better play on DK since his salary gives you bigger savings from the two backs mentioned above. Freeman has the luxury of playing behind the number 1 rated run blocking offensive line according to PFF. The Falcons are among the biggest home favorites this week (11.5) and are implied to score over 28 points. The Dolphins rank in the middle of the pack in aFPA with an average of 21 PPG. There’s always a concern with splitting carries with Tevin Coleman, but through the Falcons first 4 games, Freeman has 73% of the carries compared to Coleman’s 27%.

Mark Ingram (DK $4,400, FD $ 5,900) – A true committee that a lot of DFS players will have their eye on. With the trade of Adrian Peterson, this backfield is now a true timeshare between Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara (DK $4,500, FD $ 5,800). My initial thought is that Kamara will be the more popular back because of his involvement in the passing game and his big game before last week’s bye. Kamara went for 25.6 DK points on 10 receptions for 71 yards and a TD. This game has shootout written all over it so Kamara could continue to see more passing targets out of the backfield. My only concern here is that although Ingram is being phased out by the coaches, he’s still seeing over 55% of the carries and 36% of the targets. Ingram does have pass-catching upside and is still the goal line back, so he’d be the preferred choice on FD. However, on DK I think I’d have to lean on Kamara for the bigger PPR upside.

Jerick McKinnon (DK $4,100, FD $5,600) – Another running back situation that people will monitor is the Vikings’ committee. Last week in their first week without Delvin Cook, McKinnon saw 67% of the snaps compared to Murray who saw 31%. The carries were 55% for McKinnon and 41% to Murray. McKinnon led all backs with 6 receptions on 6 targets, while Murray seemed to be phased out in the second half. McKinnon was more successful with his workload averaging 5.9 YPC compared to Murray’s 2.6. McKinnon is currently rated as our top value play (points per dollar) on DK and FD.

Chris Thompson (DK $5,000) – A nice GPP pivot off the chalkier cheaper options I mentioned above. If Rob Kelly misses like the reports indicate he is, Thompson could be a great gpp option against the 49ers. He’s not that cheap on DK but has a lot of upside. Samaje Perine could work the early downs but Thompson is the featured back in the passing game, which I expect the Redskins to focus on.

Other Viable Options:

CJ Anderson, M. Gordon, T. Gurley, A. Jones *T. Montgomery out*, L. Miller, E. McGuire.

Wide Receivers:

NFL Lineups Daily Fantasy Football - DeAndre Hopkins - Lineup Lab

Wide Receiver is a little more open season when compared to running backs. There are a lot of teams that are big favorites so there are really only a few passing offenses that you want to use.

DeAndre Hopkins (DK $8,100, FD $8,000) – Nuke’s price took a STEEP hike on DK, rising over $1,700 after a 3 touchdown performance against the Chiefs. But even at over 8K, that price is finally warranted for a guy that is receiving over 12 targets per game. Through 5 weeks of the season, Hopkins only trails Antonio Brown for most targets in the league. This week Hopkins has an above average matchup against Jason McCourty, who actually has a great grade on PFF(91.7), but the past two seasons he’s averaged a grade in the mid 50’s. It’s also worth noting that Hopkins is expected to lineup against Jamar Taylor (has a 45.1 PFF rating) in two WR sets. Hopkins should be able to produce with the 12+ targets he’s expected to see.

Julio Jones (DK, $8,300, FD $8,400) – I have yet to roster Julio this season, and thankfully so. Julio has yet to score this year and only has 30 targets on the season (4 games). But I have a feeling this is the week we see Julio get back on track. The Falcons are really thin at WR and Julio will be facing either Cordrea Tankersley or Xavien Howard. Regardless of who Julio matches up against, he’s virtually matchup proof. Julio notoriously plays better at home than on the road. It’s about time Julio finds the endzone this week.

Pierre Garcon (DK $ 6,300, FD $6,800) – I loved Garcon last week against the Colts despite going up against Vontae Davis. This week I want to go back to the well in a game that I expect the 49ers to be trailing. The Redskins will be without Josh Norman which helps Garcon. Garcon is currently 8th in the league in targets with 44 through 5 games. This week Garcon could face Quinton Dunbar and Bashaud Breeland who are both targetable corners. I expect Garcon to get 10-12 targets this game and can very well see him putting up over 14 fantasy points.

Adam Thielen (DK $6,000 FD $6,500) – Thielen gets a great matchup here against a bad Packers secondary. Thielen is the primary slot receiver for the Vikings so he’ll face Quinten Rollins who is one of the worst slot corners according to PFF. The Packers should jump out to an early lead, which would mean the Vikings would have to pass the ball more. It’s worth monitoring Bradford’s status as game day gets closer.

Cash Viable Plays:

M. Thomas, K.Allen, L. Fitzgerald, J. Landry, G. Tate, C. Hogan, A. Cooper.

Gpp Flyers:

D. Jackson, John Brown, M. Jones Jr., T. Hill, D. Amendola, B. Cooks, T. Pryor Sr.

Value Receivers

A. Wilson, J. Kearse, J. Crowder.

Tight Ends:

Hunter Henry - NFL Lineups Daily Fantasy Football - San Diego Chargers - Lineuplab.com

Hunter Henry (DK $4,100, FD $5,400) – Henry looks to have finally taken over the tight end position for the Chargers. After 3 weeks of force-feeding Antonio Gates, Henry has finally become a part of the offense. He has now scored in two straight weeks. He ran 33 routes in over 75% of snaps he played last week.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (DK $4,300, FD $5,600) – ASJ came through last week by scoring a touchdown. That now gives him an average of 6 targets the past 3 weeks. He’s going up against the Patriots who will get out to a big lead and have allowed the most passing yards in the league.

Travis Kelce (DK $6,100, FD $7,200) – Kelce is the top projected TE on both sites this week. Kelce has 20 targets the last two weeks. Keep an eye out on the Chiefs injury report to make sure Kelce is active.

Defense:

NFL Lineups Daily Fantasy Football - Baltimore Ravens - Lineuplab.com

There are 5 teams that are currently more than a touchdown favorite. The Patriots are the only team in that bunch that is not at home. The Ravens (16.5), Falcons (17.25), Redskins (18), Texans (18.5), and the Patriots (20) are all going up against teams implied to score less than 20 points. Defense is very volatile so any one of these could land atop the leaderboards. The Ravens are currently our top projected defense. While the Bucs are the best value projected to score nearly 3x.

Good Luck!

NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football: Week 5 Cash and GPP Plays

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Cesar Becerra on October 5, 20170 Comments

Week 5 brings us the first scheduled bye week (Tampa Bay and Miami week 1 bye week was obviously not scheduled). This leaves us incredibly thin at Quarterback if you are playing the main slate. *Note that Draftkings main slate does not include Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, nor Monday Night Football* This week we’ll be without the Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints, and Washington Redskins.

Let’s get to the position breakdown.

Quarterbacks

As I mentioned, QB is incredibly thin if you’re playing Draftkings main slate. With the teams on byes that leaves us without Brees, Ryan, Siemian, and Cousins. Each are quarterbacks who could warrant usage in a week with a solid matchup. The list of available quarterbacks becomes even shorter when you exclude the TNF, SNF, and MNF game. That removes Brady, Winston, A. Smith, and Watson from the slate. So as you can see we are missing quite a few relevant quarterbacks on the main slate. My best advice if you want to get exposure to any of these guys would be to play on the Thurs-Mon slate, but for the sake of consistency, I’ll only address players on the main slate.

Aaron Rodgers (DK $8,100, FD $9,500) – The highest priced QB on both sites and for a good reason. Rodgers comes into the game with the highest over/under at 52.5. The Packers are currently 2 point underdogs implied to score the second highest mark on the slate (25.25). Rodgers has played three of his first four games at home but was able to eclipse the 300-yard mark and throw two touchdowns against the Falcons in week 2. This week the Packers offense should look to rely more on Rodgers’ arm with Ty Montgomery expected to miss the game with a rib injury. Pay up for Rodgers if you can afford him in cash games.

Dak Prescott (DK $6,800, FD $7,700) – Staying in the same game, let’s go to the opposite side of the ball. Prescott and the Cowboys currently have the largest implied team total on the slate (27.25) and are at home against a Packers secondary that has yet to allow a 300-yard passer through the first four games. The Packers secondary has held opposing quarterbacks to an average of 210 yards and 1 touchdown. It is worth noting that three of those four games have been at home and against quarterbacks off to a slow start (Wilson, Dalton, and Glennon). The situation may not seem to be ideal for Prescott, but I expect the Packers secondary to regress a bit, especially with Rodgers needing to throw the ball more. Prescott does have some rushing equity, which could help him reach value. Currently, Dak is projected to score the fifth highest total according to Lineup Labs player pool.

Carson Palmer (DK $5,900, FD $7,200) – If you’re looking for value you may want to consider Carson Palmer, who is currently rated as our second highest points/dollar QB. Palmer is on the road facing the Eagles who have averaged 300 yards and 1.8 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks per game. The Cardinals are about a touchdown underdog so the game script could favor Palmer if the Cards fall behind and he has to throw 40+ times. Consider Palmer a gpp only flyer.

Other options to consider
Matthew Stafford (DK $6,300, FD $7,600) – Stafford is one of the most talented QBs on the slate but has a difficult matchup against the Panthers at home. The Panthers have averaged 211 passing yards and 1.3 touchdowns this season. They have shown vulnerabilities against good QBs, allowing Brees and Brady to combine for 527 yards and five touchdowns the last two weeks.

Brian Hoyer (DK $4,700, FD $6,500) – Again a pure value play that allows you to allocate salary at other positions, but Hoyer is facing a Colts defense that has averaged a touchdown and over 240 in every game this season.

Running Backs

Le’Veon Bell (DK $9,500, FD $9,500) – Finally, the Le ‘Veon we all grew to know and respect made an impact this season. Bell is coming off of a 39 touch game, in which he totaled 186 yards and two touchdowns against a solid Ravens defense. The Steelers are the biggest favorite on the slate (8.5) and are at home so Le’Veon checks all the boxes you’d want for your number 1 running back. The issue is trying to get the salary to pay up for him.

Todd Gurley II (DK $8,000, FD $7,800) – Gurley makes his way on the list over Zeke simply because of the salary savings you get. On DK you save $800, and on FD you save $900 from Zeke. I expect Zeke to have higher ownership than Gurley and rightfully so as Like Bell, Zeke is a home favorite and coming off of a big game. But here’s the kicker, Gurley is too. Surprisingly the Rams are a slight favorite over the Seahawks at home (-1) and are implied to score 24.25 points. Gurley has been heavily involved in the passing game this year and should get plenty of work in a game I expect to be a slugfest. Gurley is second in our projected points behind Bell.

Jonathan Stewart (DK $3,900, FD $5,700) – Looking for a value you may want to drop all the way down to Jonathan Stewart. Yes, I know his role has diminished since McCaffrey has joined the Panthers backfield, but Stewart has continued to get the majority of the carries. Through the first four weeks, Stewart has received 63% of the rushing attempts out of the Carolina backfield. Stewart is only playing in 42% of the snaps, which trails McCaffrey, but at 3,900 on DK if Stewart finds the end zone he could very well hit 3x value. Stewart is currently ranked as our top-rated value play according to DFSR projections.

GPP Flyer

Joe Mixon (DK $5,500, FD $5,900) – His price actually dropped a couple of hundred dollars ($200) on DK, which is surprising. Coming into the season, it was only a matter of time before Mixon took over the Bengals backfield. Since firing Ken Zampese and appointing Bill Lazor as the OC, Mixon has received 52% of the snaps and 65 % of the rushing attempts out of the Bengals backfield. Last week Mixon had 17 rushes and four catches on four targets but was only able to muster 28 yards. He’s going up against a tough Bills defense, but as a 3 point home favorite, I can get around the idea of sprinkling in some Mixon on my GPP teams.

** It’s worth monitoring the Packers practice reports. Montgomery is expected to miss so that could lead to more opportunities for Aaron Jones. But at $5,100 on DK and $5,900 on FD, I’d rather take my chances with Mixon over Jones.

Other options to consider
Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi, Frank Gore, Ameer Abdullah, Duke Johnson, Bilal Powell, Wendell Smallwood.

Wide Receivers

Dez Bryant (DK $6,500, FD $7,800) – Dez is perhaps my favorite wide receiver to play this week for the sole reason that the game script may lead to more targets for Dez. Dez is currently 4th in the NFL in targets with 40, which is just over 42% of Dak Prescott’s targets. The Cowboys are implied to score over 27 points, and the game script could mean that the Dallas passing offense will need to be in full force, so I expect Bryant to get a lot of looks. Bryant only has a 40% catch rate on his targets, but that has a lot to do with the difficult matchups he’s had to deal with through the first four weeks of the season. I like a Dak and Dez stack to help differentiate lineups.

Jordy Nelson (DK $8,100, FD $8,600) – Jordy will be the most popular receiver in the slate. Nelson figures to get a lot of work considering that the Packers will abandon the run game and force Rodgers to throw 45+ times. Nelson is coming off of a week 3 where he caught 4 of his seven targets, which included two touchdowns against the Bears. Nelson has now caught over 60% of his targets and has scored four touchdowns in what really was only 3 full games on the field.

Randall Cobb (DK $6,700, FD $6,600) – If you have not noticed yet, I really like every aspect of this Green Bay vs. Dallas game. The Packers are going to be one dimensional, and I think the Cowboys are going to have to play catch up. But Cobb is my sneaky play here. With Ty out I can see a situation where Cobb gets some work out of the backfield, adding in 3-5 more touches for the game. Cobb does most of his damage in the slot, but if Adams and Montgomery are out, I see him playing the same role that Montgomery played last year where the Packers had backfield issues. This, of course, could make Geronimo Allison a play with Cobb getting less work in the slot. This entire Packers offense is a situation worth monitoring.

DeVante Parker (DK $6,600, FD $ 6,100) – It’s tough to trust any aspect of the Dolphins offense attack, especially when you consider that Jay Cutler hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdown passes in his last 16 starts. That being said, Parker is someone worth writing about. Parker is 18th in the league with 18 targets and has caught over 75% of those targets (14). The Titans rank 32nd in the league in aFPA to wide receivers, so this could be the breakout week for Parker.

Aldrick Robinson (DK $3,100, FD $4,600) – One of my favorite DFS writers, Adam Levitan love Aldrick for the sake of #Preseason. Aldrick has dominated preseason the past two years under Shanahan and now may get more of an opportunity with Marquise Goodwin in the concussion protocol. Last week Robinson had 12 targets in an 86% of the offensive snaps. If Goodwin is out, like I expect him to be, Robinson is likely to be a beneficiary. The 49ers are going up against the Colts secondary that has had a lot of trouble at WR this year.

Tight End

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (DK $3,500, FD $5,500) – I don’t know why I went away from playing tight ends against the Browns last week but lessoned learned and I’m not doing that again. The Browns rank 32nd against TE in aFPA, averaging just over 15 points per game. Jesse James lit up this defense in week 1 and so did Ben Watson, now after adding Tyler Kroft to the list, I can’t help but add ASJ to the list.

Delanie Walker (DK $4,700, FD $6,000) – Walker is 6th in the league in targets with 14 and now has to deal with a quarterback change with Mariota out. Matt Cassel will start this week and will likely be looking for a security blanket to dump the ball off to. Walker should be the most significant beneficiary of the Mariota injury. Walker is currently the third highest projected tight end according to our projections.

Tyler Kroft (DK $ 3,200, FD $5,500) – Kroft leads our projections as our top value play for the week. After a big performance against the Browns, Kroft figures to be an essential role in the Bengals red zone passing attack. Kroft caught six of his seven targets last week with Tyler Eifert out for the Bengals.

Defense

Pittsburgh Steelers (DK $3,900, FD $4,800) – The Steelers are the highest projected defense on both sites according to Lineup Labs and rightfully so. They are the biggest favorite on the slate, at home, and are going up against the Jags who are implied to score 17.5 points. The issue here is that they’re costly. They may be safe, but I’ll more than likely be looking elsewhere for defense.

San Francisco 49ers (DK $2,600, FD $4,200) – I think the 49ers are in a good spot to take advantage of a lousy offense. The Colts line gives up over 3 sacks per game, and the 49ers have a much improved defensive line. This 49er team has had a rough schedule to begin the season, but their defense has performed well even without their late first-round pick Reuben Foster.

NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football: Week 2 Cash and GPP Plays

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Cesar Becerra on September 15, 20170 Comments

The NFL Week 2 slate kicks off with two games on the main slate that currently have Vegas over/under greater than 53. Per usual, these games will see the heaviest amount of ownership in cash games and tournaments. The difference this week from the first week is that these games actually consist of four high-powered offensive teams. Before I dive into this week’s positional breakdown, I’ll give a preview of the two games that could dictate the landscape of week 2.

Put our picks into the optimizer and let us help crunch the numbers, or browse through the Week 2 studs and sleepers with NFL Player Lab.

Patriots (31) @ Saints (24.5) o/u 54 (open) 55.5 (live)

The Patriots come into week 2 0-1 for the first time since 2014. If you’re panicking as a Patriots fan, you really shouldn’t, the last three times the Patriots started 0-1 they went on to win the Super Bowl. Bill Belichick is 42-6 following a loss. The Vegas lined open with the Patriots as a 4.5 point favorite but has since moved to a 6.5 favorite over the Saints giving the Patriots the highest implied team total on the main slate. They are going up against a Saints defense that just got lit up by Sam Bradford on Monday night football. Last season the Saints ranked 27th in the league in Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) and 23rd against opposing wide receivers. To say the Saints have a bad secondary is an understatement. So Tom Brady against the Saints after not throwing a touchdown pass in the first game of the season is in a great spot. The Patriots offense as a whole with 10 days to prepare for this week going up against a Saints defense that has had 5 days to prepare an irritated Belichick.

Now the Saints aren’t in a bad spot themselves. They are playing in what many of the DFS community call the Coors Field of the NFL, the Superdome. The Saints offense passed the ball on nearly 60% of their offensive plays in the first week against the Vikings. The fact that they are about a touchdown underdog shows that Vegas believes they could be trailing throughout the game and could lead to more of the same game script for the Saints offense. Drew Brees is notorious for his home and road splits, and this week he’s back at home, and the Saints offense has performed much better when playing at home.

We always got to remember that Vegas isn’t always 100 percent right, but they are often a good indicator of game scripts. Figuring out how to roster a few players in this game will be key having a successful week 2.

NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football - Green Bay Packers - Lineup Lab

Packers (25.5) @ Falcons (28) o/u 53.5

These two teams meet up for the first time since the NFC Championship in a highly anticipated rematch. These two teams are also coming off of a week 1 offensive let down where they had similar positive Vegas numbers. Both teams had their fair share of concerns back in week 1. The Falcons were on the road, and the Packers were going up against an improved Seahawks defense. But onward to this week!

The Falcons return home where they flat out dominated the league with their high-powered offense. The difference is that this season they have a new offensive coordinator in Steve Sarkisian who managed the Falcons to a 57-43 pass to run ratio. Matt Ryan is going up against the Packers defense that was 31st in passing yards allowed and 29th in quarterback touchdowns. Matt Ryan at home against a mediocre Packers secondary is just as must as a lock as a top quarterback could be.

While the Falcons are favored by just under a field goal, the Packers implied total is also top 10 in the week. The Packers offenses threw at a 60-40 percent ratio against a tough Seattle passing defense and were able to manage over 300 yards. Aaron Rodgers has lit up the Falcons in his first two meetings against them accumulating 7 touchdowns on 573 yards against the Falcons.

This game will be featured as the Sunday night game, and you’d want to construct your lineups to have some exposure to this game or else you could see yourself dropping on the leaderboards.

Now that we looked into the two games that could have the highest impact on this week’s slate let’s take a look at a few other options at the different positions.

NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab - Derek Carr

Quarterbacks:

If week 1 taught us anything, it was that paying up for the premium quarterbacks is over rated. The average quarterback scored 15.5 points on DraftKings and 14.62 points on FanDuel. We saw plenty of lineups at the top of the leaderboards with Carson Wentz and Matthew Stafford, and there were plenty of bust in the higher tier (I’m talking about your Russell Wilson). This week it may be harder to get away from the top tier (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Ryan) but there are always a few options in the middle and lower tier we can consider.

Derek Carr (DK $7,200, FD $8,300)
There are two quarterbacks that I like this week as a pivot from the quarterbacks mentioned above and the first is Derek Carr. Carr is coming off a week 1 performance where the Raiders offense controlled the game against an improved Titans defense and Carr completed over 68% of his passes. This week the Raiders are a huge 14 point favorites (second biggest on the slate) with an implied total of 28.5 at home against the Jets. The Jets have among one of the worst defenses in the league and last year allowed 30 passing touchdowns, which ranked in the bottom 10 in the league. The Jets also have a funnel defense which could force the Raiders to more passing situations with the Jets ability to limit the run game.

Russell Wilson (DK $6,800, FD $8,100)
Similar to Carr, Wilson comes into week 2 with an implied total of 28 points at home against a 49ers team that also allowed 30 passing touchdowns last year. The 49ers front seven is much improved from last season but could be limited depending on the status of rookie linebacker Reuben Foster. In week 1 the Seahawks had a 60-40 pass to run ratio, and Pete Caroll could look to stick with that ratio as Seattle has a lot of question marks in their backfield. Wilson has traditionally performed better at home than on the road, and Wilson is averaging 2.83 DK points at home than on the road. Wilson has averaged 19.7 DK points against the 49ers at home in two meetings against them in his career. These two quarterbacks are likely to be the most popular pivot from the high priced guys.

Carson Palmer (DK $6,000, FD $7,500)
Palmer did not look good against the Lions last week. He completed just 56% of his passes and threw 3 bad interceptions that allowed the Lions to come from behind and steal a victory. The bright side is that Palmer did throw the ball 48 times. The Cardinals also lost their star running back, David Johnson and have a mess in the backfield. Although Johnson is a huge weapon for Palmer out of the backfield, this could force even more passing plays for Palmer. This week Palmer is going up against a Colts defense that just got exposed for a 300 yard game by Jared Goff and a mediocre Rams offense. The Cardinals are an 8.5 road favorite with a score of 25.75. Palmer doesn’t quite check all the boxes you’d like to see for a quarterback, but he’s worth a flyer in tournaments, especially if you stack him with Larry Fitzgerald.

Joe Flacco (DK $5,200, FD $7,000)
Recovering from back injury, Flacco was eased back into live action in week 1. The Ravens protected Flacco by running the ball 71% of their offensive plays, but Flacco has a juicy matchup against the Browns. With an implied total of 23.5 and an 8 point favorite, the Ravens could very well continue to run the ball, but Flacco could be a big part of getting the big league for the Ravens. The Browns cut Joe Haden this preseason and ranked 30th against the pass last season DVOA, so this could be a get well game for Flacco down at $5,200 on Draftkings.

Running Backs:

Last week I was a part of #TeamJamEmIn and rostered both LeVeon Bell and David Johnson. It didn’t work so well last week, and we no longer have that option with DJ out until possibly December. This week there aren’t a lot of backs that fill the bill with situations I like (home favorites with a high team total), but I’ll give you a few that stand out.

Melvin Gordon (DK $7,000, FD $7,600)

Gordon is insanely cheap on FanDuel, but he’s also relatively cheap on DraftkKngs as well. Due to the amount of volume he receives, he could be a steal at that mid-tier price point. Last week, Gordon had a pretty solid showing on the road against a tough Broncos defense. He totaled 23 touches and 79 yards and a touchdown (16.4 FDp & 18.9 DKp). This week Gordon is one of the few running backs that check all the boxes for being a home favorite running back with a decent team total. Gordon is the 6th highest price running back on DraftKings and 10th on Fanduel so he could warrant lower than expected ownership on DK considering he’s $200 more than Kareem Hunt.

Ty Montgomery (DK $5,800, FD $6,500)

If you’re looking for another non-expensive running back look no further than Montgomery. Montgomery is the 15th most expensive back on DK and 20th on FD. When you look at Montgomery’s game log in week 1, the one thing that stands out was his pass catching ability. A former receiver converted to running back, Montgomery caught each of his 4 targets against the Seahawks and turned that into 19.3 DK points. Although Montgomery is a road underdog against, he does have a high team total (25.25) in a game that is projected to be a shootout (53.5 o/u) and faces a Falcons defense that ranked dead last this past season in allowing running backs receptions (109) and yards (870). Montgomery is a good way to get exposure to this game at a very cheap cost.

Kareem Hunt (DK $6,800, FD $7,800)
The rookie burst onto the scene last week with a huge night racking up 248 total yards and 3 TD’s in 23 touches against a much improved Patriots defense. Hunt is likely to be very popular this week as he’s up against the Eagles who rank 22nd in aFPA per 4for4. Hunt is one of those running backs that check all the boxes as he’s a home favorite (-4.5) with an implied total of 26 points. It’s important to note that he’s not as cheap on FanDuel, where he is the 7th highest priced back.

Jacquizz Rodgers (DK $4,400, FD $6,000)
Rodgers will get his first of three starts as the Bucs premier back with Doug Martin suspended for three games this season. Rodgers had over 17 touches per game in spot starts last season and could be in for a heavy workload as a home favorite against the Bears. The Bears do have an improved front 7, so I could see a game script where Dirk Koetter elects to test out Winston’s new weapons on offense. Rodgers is cheap and should get anywhere from 15-18 touches in the game.

Tarik Cohen (DK $4,1000, FD $7,000) – A road underdog that has the game script that will likely feature a pass-catching running back. The Bears showed that Cohen is their clear pass catching back.

Adam Thielen - Minnesota Vikings - NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Wide Receivers

In a slate that features four high-powered offenses with great Vegas totals, all of the high-priced receivers are in good spots this week to have a monster year. Antonio Brown is a beneficiary of Big Ben’s home splits and the same goes for Julio Jones.

Julio Jones (DK $9,200, FD $8,800)
Julio is in a ridiculous matchup. We’ve already talked about his high team total and the fact that that game has shootout written all over it. On top of all that, Jones is going up against the Packers defense that ranked 29th in wide receiver fantasy points allowed last season. Even last week when they bottled up Wilson, Baldwin was still able to manage a decent 63 yards on 4 catches. Julio will go up against Damarious Randall who allowed the second-most fantasy points per snap on a per-route basis in week 1 per Mike Clay. Julio and Ryan at home are a dynamic duo and could be in line for a monster game.

Brandin Cooks (DK $8,200, FD $7,900)
Another wide receiver in a high over/under game. Naturally, Cooks would have to make this list. He’s returning to the Superdome to play against his former team #NarrativeStreet. The Patriots were already without Julian Edelman and are more than likely to be without Danny Amendola who has not practiced this week due to a concussion and knee injury sustained in week 1. The Patriots will likely have two healthy receivers who are familiar with the playbook and Cooks has the upside to have a huge game.

Larry Fitzgerald (DK $6,500, FD $6,600)
Fitzgerald is a stud in the first six weeks of the season. Last week he received a team-high 13 targets and caught 6 of them for 74 yards. This week without David Johnson I expect the Cardinals to rely heavily on the passing game. We already talked about how the Colts got torn apart by a mediocre Rams offense. The savvy vet Fitzgerald is almost a sure bet to find the end zone.

Marqise Lee (DK $3,800, FD $5,900)
If you’re looking for value, unfortunately, it may lie on Marqise Lee. Lee could be the benefactor from the injury that causes Allen Robinson to miss the rest of the season. Lee is likely to move into the starting wide receiver spot and will play alongside Allen Hurns who caught under 50% of his targets last season. Lee was held without a catch last week against the Texans, but he should be in line to see more volume this week. Bortles leaves a lot to be desired, but Lee is very cheap and could help you fit in some of these top priced studs.

Adam Thielen (DK $ 5,000, FD $5,800)
Thielen had a breakout game 1 of the 2017 season on Monday night. He racked up 157 yards on 9 catches and out-targeted the Vikings number 1 receiver Diggs. He’s not a big red zone factor for Bradford, but his game script does indicate the Vikings could be playing catch up and throwing a lot as a 5.5 underdog against the Steelers on the road.

Tight End

Tight End is a position I traditionally like to find value. This week is no different. While there are viable top-tier options that are worthy of rostering, I find that in this week it’s easier for roster construction to find value at tight end.

Coby Fleener (DK $3,100, FD $5,300)
Fleener will be the consensus chalk on DraftKings. As the 15th price tight end, Fleener opens up a lot of salary to afford a higher priced stud. Fleener looks to benefit from the absence of Willie Snead as in the two games without Snead, Fleener has averaged 8.5 targets for an average of 81 yards and a touchdown. The Saints are a home underdog, but Fleener has traditionally done better at home. Fleener is looking to be like the free square that Ertz was last week.

Jared Cook (DK $3,300, FD $5,100)
I like Jared Cook as a pivot off Fleener’s high ownership this week. Cook receiver 20% of the target market shares in an Oakland offense that is implied to score the second most points on the slate. He looked like a nice security blanket for Carr down the seems and is an excellent pivot from both Fleener and the popular Carr/Cooper or Carr/Crabtree stack. He’s up against a Jets funnel defense that allowed the third-most touchdowns to tight ends last season.

Gpp consideration
Carles Clay (DK $3,300, FD $5,100)
Another pivot from Fleener, Clay led the Bills with 9 targets in week 1. Clay is going up against the Panthers who allowed the second-most touchdowns last season.

Defense

If week 2 is as crazy as week 1 was we better be ready to hit on defense. Last week we saw 4 different defense score over 20 DK points, and it was almost impossible to land atop the leaderboards without them.

Oakland Raiders (DK $3,500, FD $5,300)
There are a few chalk options this week, starting with the Raiders.They’re at home and face a Jets team that is implied for 15 points (second lowest on the slate). The Raiders are coming off of an impressive performance on the road against a much improved Titans offense. Playing the Raiders with Marshawn Lynch could be a nice way to get exposure to the game on both sides of the ball.

Baltimore Ravens (DK $3,700, FD $4,700)
A better play on FanDuel, the Ravens defense comes into week 2 in a great spot. After holding the Bengals to 0 points in week 1, the Ravens shift their focus to the Browns. Like the Raiders, the Ravens are a double-digit (10) favorite against a poor offense. Although the Brown showed some promise last week against the Steelers, the Ravens are at home and had a 71% run percentage last week, which suggest there could be very limited possessions in this game. The Browns are implied to score 15.5 points (third worst on the slate), so the Ravens could be a nice pivot for teams that want to save the $200 with the Raiders.

Other considerations;
Seattle Seahawks (DK $4,000, FD $5,400)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK $3,200, FD $4,500)

Tag Archives