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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 13 – Quarterbacks

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Mike Barner on November 27, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

The stretch run of the NFL season is here. There are no teams on a bye in Week 13, leaving a bevy of quarterbacks to choose from in DFS. Let’s examine some players to target and avoid as you craft your lineup. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 13 - Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $9,500
DraftKings = $7,600

The last time we saw Mahomes on the field was in Week 11 during that thrilling game against the Rams. He had a monster performance with 478 yards and six touchdowns. Believe it or not, that was actually his second game of the season with six passing touchdowns. The only downside to his performance was that he turned the ball over a total of five times with three interceptions and two fumbles.

The Chiefs enjoyed a bye for Week 12 and now face a much easier opponent in the Raiders. Even though this could become a blowout in which Mahomes isn’t required to throw the ball much late in the game, that doesn’t mean he won’t be very productive along the way. The Raiders get virtually no pressure on opposing quarterbacks and are tied for the second-most passing touchdowns allowed (25) in the league.

Cam Newton vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $6,600

After starting out the season 6-2, the Panthers have lost three straight games. They suffered a tough loss to the Seahawks at home last week, but it was still another productive performance from Newton. He completed 25 of 30 pass attempts for 256 yards and two touchdowns while also chipping in 63 yards on the ground. That marked the fourth time in the last five games that’s posted a completion percentage of at least 72.4 percent and his 10th straight contest with at least two touchdown passes.

Newton gets a stellar matchup this week against a bad Bucs secondary that has allowed the most passing touchdowns (26) and the sixth-most passing yards per game (274). They did play well against the 49ers last week, but facing Nick Mullens and his depleted wide receiver group isn’t exactly a herculean task. The Panthers hung 42 points on the Bucs when these two played each other in Week 9, a game in which Newton had 247 passing yards and two touchdowns.

Jared Goff vs. Detroit Lions
Stadium – Ford Field
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $6,400

As impressive as Mahomes was during their matchup, Goff was just as good with 413 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, and one score on the ground. That marked his second game with at least 400 passing yards this season and the third time in his last four contests that he threw for at least three touchdowns. It’s also important to note that he has just one interception across his last five games.

The Rams also had the luxury of a bye last week and will now travel to Detroit to face a Lions team that is in line for another disappointing year at 4-7. They don’t give up a ton of yards through the air, but the Lions have allowed 24 passing touchdowns compared to just four interceptions. This also has the makings of a potential blowout, but Goff is still a great option in cash contests due to his touchdown upside.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 13 - Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – CenturyLink Field
FanDuel = $7,700
DraftKings = $6,300

After struggling to score at the beginning of the season, the Seahawks have produced at least 27 points in each of their last three games. Wilson had his best game of the year in Week 12, throwing for 339 yards and two touchdowns against the Panthers. That was the first time he topped 300 passing yards in a game, but it was also his seventh-straight contest with at least two touchdowns.

The Seahawks have a run-heavy offense, which sometimes doesn’t always lead to huge yardage totals from Wilson. However, that hasn’t stopped him from throwing for 25 touchdowns, leaving him with a great chance to throw for at least 30 scores for the third time in his career. The 49ers have allowed 23 passing touchdowns and picked off just two passes all season, so expect Wilson to thrive in this contest.

Jameis Winston vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $6,000

Things couldn’t have gone much better for Winston in his return as the starting quarterback last week against the 49ers. He completed 76.3 percent of his passes for 312 yards and two touchdowns while adding 24 rushing yards. Maybe the most important stat is that he wasn’t intercepted for the first time this season.

The Bucs beat the 49ers comfortably, holding them to just nine points. Don’t expect their defense to play nearly as well against the Panthers, which should require Winston to throw the ball more to keep up. The Panthers are vulnerable through the air having allowed 25 touchdown passes, although it is a bit concerning for Winston that they also have 11 interceptions. His history with turnovers makes him a bit risky, but he still has enough upside to make him a viable option in tournament play.

Lamar Jackson vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $5,900

He didn’t exactly face a tough opponent in the Raiders, but Jackson helped lead the Ravens to another win in Week 12. His passing numbers weren’t stellar, completing 14 of 25 attempts for 178 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. However, he continued to dominate with his legs, rushing 11 times for 71 yards and a touchdown. Through two starts, Jackson has an insane 190 rushing yards.

The Ravens quarterback situation is one to monitor closely. Joe Flacco (hip) has still not been cleared to return, which could lead Jackson to start again in Week 13. Even if Flacco is healthy enough to play, there is no guarantee he regains his starting job. There have already been reports that the Ravens might use both quarterbacks in games. If Flacco is out against the Falcons, this is a great opportunity for Jackson since the Falcons have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards (205) and three rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 13 - Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan vs. Baltimore Ravens
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $8,500
DraftKings = $5,600

The Falcons couldn’t pull out a win against the Saints last week, but Ryan still played well with 377 yards and two touchdowns. Ryan gets the benefit of playing this game at home and has some great weapons at wide receiver, but this is not a very favorable matchup against a Ravens team that allows the second-fewest passing yards per game (203). Ryan might not be a total flop and isn’t priced overly high on DraftKings, but his price on FanDuel is less than appealing.

Case Keenum vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $6,900
DraftKings = $5,200

On the surface, this might stand out as a great matchup against a Bengals defense that couldn’t be playing much worse. They’ve allowed the second-most passing yards per game (292) and were just destroyed by the Browns. However, Keenum is having a poor season with 13 touchdown passes compared to 10 interceptions. He hasn’t thrown for at least 300 yards in a game since Week 6 and has thrown for 205 yards or fewer in back-to-back contests. If you want to take a chance on a cheap option in tournament play, look elsewhere.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 12 – Quarterbacks

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Mike Barner on November 20, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

With two of the top offensive teams in the Chiefs and Rams on a bye, two of the top quarterback options won’t be available in Week 12. Add in three Thanksgiving games and primetime matchups that include the Packers and Texans and the position is thinner than usual for the main Sunday slate in DFS. Let’s examine some of the options still on the board that could help you come away with a winning entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 12 - Quarterbacks

Cam Newton vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Bank of America Stadium
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $6,200

Newton doesn’t always rack up a ton of passing yards, but he posted a season-high 357 yards through the air during Sunday’s loss to the Lions. He also had three passing touchdowns, which helped make up for his season-low two rushing yards. Known for his ability to pad his stats on the ground, Newton has actually only carried the ball a total of four times across his last two contests. He had 21 carries over two games before that stretch.

After laying an egg Week 1 against the Cowboys, Newton has thrown at least two touchdown passes in nine straight games. He’s only two away from his entire mark in 2017. Add in his four rushing touchdowns and he has a tremendously high floor. The Seahawks started out the year defending the pass well, but they’be shown some holes of late, allowing 878 yards and six touchdowns through the air across their last three games.

Andrew Luck vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $6,400

The Colts came away with their fourth straight victory in Week 11 to even their record at 5-5. Luck picked apart the Titans, completing 23 of 29 passes for 297 yards and three touchdowns. The Colts have been blowing out opponents during their recent winning streak, which has somewhat put a damper on Luck’s yardage totals. However, he posted a completion percentage of at least 71 percent and thrown at least three touchdowns in each of the four games.

After sitting out all of 2017, the fact that Luck has 29 touchdowns across his first 10 games is incredibly impressive. He has been a bit turnover prone with nine interceptions, but he has only thrown one pick across his last four games. The Dolphins have 15 interceptions compared to 18 touchdown passes allowed this season, but this still isn’t a situation to shy away from using Luck. If the Colts are going to continue to be successful, it will be on the strength of his throwing arm.

Russell Wilson vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Bank of America Stadium
FanDuel = $7,700
DraftKings = $5,600

The Seahawks have been able to get a few extra days of rest after completing a comeback win against the Packers on Thursday Night Football. Russell threw for 225 yards in that game and has only topped 250 passing yards in a game one time this season. In fact, he’s still looking for his first 300-yard performance. However, he logged two touchdowns in that contest and has now thrown for at least two scores in every game but one this year.

The only negative with Wilson is that the Seahawks run-heavy scheme is going to limit his passing attempts. On the plus side, he’s made the most of his opportunities by posting a 66.2 percent completion percentage that is the second-highest mark of his career. The Panthers have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns (23) in the league, leaving Wilson with an excellent opportunity for another multi-touchdown performance.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 12 - Quarterbacks

Jameis Winston vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $6,000

The Bucs are a mess. After starting out the season 3-2, they’ve now lost four consecutive games. They haven’t been able to settle on a starting quarterback, which is one of the big reasons for their struggles. Ryan Fitzpatrick started Sunday against the Giants but was pulled after throwing three interceptions. Winston, who previously lost the starting job due to his own interception issues, came on in relief and threw for 199 yards and two touchdowns.

With how poorly Fitzpatrick has played the last two weeks, Winston will get the starting nod in Week 12. Interceptions will continue to be a concern, but he’s shown plenty of potential when on the field. This is also a favorable matchup for him considering the 49ers only have two interceptions all season. Ironically, the only team with fewer is the Bucs with just one pick. The 49ers have also allowed 21 passing touchdowns, which is tied for the sixth-most in the league.

Baker Mayfield vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $5,500

The last time we saw Mayfield on the field was in Week 10 against the Falcons. The Browns pulled off the upset win in large part because of an excellent performance from running back Nick Chubb. Mayfield was only required to throw the ball 20 times due to their success on the ground, but he completed 17 of those passes for 216 yards and a career-high three touchdowns.

After getting their bye in Week 11, the Browns enter this game well rested and ready to take on a Bengals team that has allowed the second-most passing yards per game (296). Mayfield has thrown at least two touchdown passes in four straight games and completed at least 67.7 percent of his passes in three of those contests, so don’t be surprised if he takes advantage of the Bengals’ porous secondary Sunday.

Nick Mullens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $5,400

The 49ers were on a bye in Week 11 after suffering a loss to the Giants in Week 10. Mullens had a largely disappointing performance, throwing for 250 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. However, the Giants aren’t as bad defensively as their 3-7 record might lead you to believe. They’ve only allowed 14 passing touchdowns all season, which is tied for the fourth-fewest in the league. They’ve also recorded 10 interceptions.

Mullens retained the starting quarterback job despite his struggles in that game and is now set for an excellent matchup against the Bucs. The Giants have been terrible offensively for most of the season but hung 38 points on the Bucs in Week 11. The Bucs are tied for the most touchdown passes allowed (25) and have just the one interception that I mentioned earlier, making Mullens an intriguing option to consider in tournament play.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 12 - Quarterbacks

Andy Dalton vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $5,300

Dalton didn’t play well during a Week 11 loss to the Bengals, completing only 52.8 percent of his passes for 211 yards. He sorely missed A.J. Green (toe), but he might get him back on the field Sunday. Green’s return would certainly help Dalton, but Dalton has thrown for more than 248 yards only once in his last six contests. With nine touchdowns across that six-game stretch, he hasn’t provided a ton of value. The Browns have 13 interceptions compared to just 16 touchdown passes allowed, making Dalton a very risky play.

Case Keenum vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $4.700

The Broncos sure miss Peyton Manning. They’ve struggled to find a productive quarterback since his retirement, but they had hoped to finally solidify the position with the addition of Keenum. However, Keenum has not been able to build on his strong 2017 campaign with the Vikings, throwing 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions with his new squad. The Steelers have allowed the seventh-fewest passing yards per game (227), so stay far, far away from Keenum.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 2 – Quarterbacks

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Mike Barner on September 11, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Early bird special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

The NFL started the season on a high note with a weekend full of wild games. The Browns finally ended their losing streak by forcing a tie against the Steelers, Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Buccaneers to a surprising win against the Saints and the Raiders were beaten soundly in Jon Gruden’s coaching return.

We’re right back at it for Week 2, which is highlighted by the Packers against the Vikings and the Patriots facing the Jaguars. It also brings another opportunity to win some money in DFS. Let’s examine some quarterbacks to target and avoid as you craft your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 2 - Quarterbacks

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $7,600
DraftKings = $6,900

Coming away with a tie in Cleveland was a disappointing start to the season for the Steelers. There were plenty of concerns about the weather heading into the contest and while it did rain, it was nowhere near the magnitude that was being discussed as a possibility early in the week. Roethlisberger threw for 335 yards but only had a 56.1% completion percentage and one touchdown to go along with three interceptions. He threw more than two interceptions in a game one time in 2017, which was a five-pick performance against the Jaguars.

While his performance wasn’t pretty, Roethlisberger is set up for a nice rebound game in Week 2. He’s been much better at home, averaging 316.6 yards per game there last year compared to 254.4 yards on the road. He also threw 16 touchdown passes across seven home games compared to 12 over eight road contests. The Chiefs secondary leaves a lot to be desired and allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 424 yards and three scores in Week 1. They also have a potent offense, so Roethlisberger and the Steelers might be forced to throw a lot to keep pace.

Philip Rivers vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $6,700

The Chargers came away with a tough loss of their own at home against the Chiefs. They played poorly on defense and special teams, which forced Rivers and their offense to try and play catch up after being down 31-12 after three quarters. Not only did Rivers finish with over 400 passing yards and three scores, but he threw just one pick and had a 66.7% completion percentage.

He was set up for a big game based on the Chiefs weak secondary and has another good matchup against the Bills, who were destroyed 47-3 by the Ravens. Joe Flacco finished that game with only 236 passing yards, but he had three touchdown passes and a 73.5% completion percentage. Flacco never threw more than two touchdown passes in any game last year and his yardage total could have been higher, but he wasn’t needed to throw much late with the game in hand. The Bills do get the benefit of playing this game at home, but Rivers is still an excellent target for your entry.

Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Detroit Lions
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $6,000

It’s no surprise that Garoppolo struggled on the road against the Vikings in Week 1. The Vikings allowed the fewest points in the NFL last year. Garoppolo finished the game with only one touchdown, three interceptions, and a 45.5% completion percentage.

Don’t read too much into that performance, there are few defenses in the league that can compare to the Vikings. One of them is certainly not the Lions, who were crushed by the Jets on Monday Night Football. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold wasn’t needed to throw much based on the score, but he completed 16 of 21 passes for 198 yards and two scores. Garoppolo isn’t overly expensive, but he has a high floor in this matchup.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 2 - Quarterbacks

Alex Smith vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $7,100
DraftKings = $6,000

Smith wasted no time getting off to a strong start with his new team in a win against the Cardinals. While Adrian Peterson did have a great game on the ground, Smith was no slouch himself. He completed 21 of 30 passes for 255 yards and two touchdowns. It’s no surprise he didn’t throw an interception considering he threw five all of 2017. His 70% completion percentage isn’t out of the ordinary, either, since he has finished with a completion percentage of at least 67.1% in both of the last two seasons.

Like the Chiefs, the Colts have a porous secondary. Andy Dalton didn’t throw for a ton of yards against them with 243 in Week 1, but he did throw for two touchdowns and post a 75% completion percentage. Dalton only had a 59.9% completion percentage in 2017. Smith’s upside isn’t off the charts, but his ability to limit turnovers while also potentially providing value with his legs makes him someone to consider in tournament play.

Case Keenum vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $5,800

It’s wasn’t all rainbows and gumdrops for Keenum in Week 1. He threw for 329 yards and three touchdowns against the Seahawks, but he also had three interceptions after throwing seven all of last season. He did attempt 39 passes, which was more attempts than he had in all but two games last year. His completion percentage was still reasonable, as well, at 64.1%. It was also encouraging to see him have such good chemistry with Emmanuel Sanders so quickly, who caught 10 of 11 targets for 135 yards.

The Raiders defense suffered a tough loss when they traded Khalil Mack to the Bears. His ability to get to the quarterback can cover up a lot of holes in a secondary which entered the season ranked 24th by Pro Football Focus. Keenum has some weapons at wide receiver with Sanders, Demaryius Thomas, and Courtland Sutton, while Philip Lindsay showed he could be an excellent compliment to Royce Freeman in the Broncos backfield. Expect Keenum to cut down on his interceptions in this game while still providing yardage and touchdown upside.

Tyrod Taylor vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $5,900

Well, at least the Browns didn’t lose for once. They could have come away with a big win to start their season, but they clearly should be an improved team. They’ve been a mess at quarterback in recent years, but they have turned to Taylor to provide some stability at the position. He completed just 37.5% of his passes in Week 1, but he provided plenty of value on the ground with 77 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.

The Saints defense may have provided the most unexpected flop of the first week, giving up 48 points to Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers. Don’t count on the Browns matching that point total, but they might be forced to play catchup against the productive Saints offense late in this game. Taylor’s passing contributions can be inconsistent, but when added with his ability to provide rushing yards, he has plenty of upside at this price.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 2 - Quarterbacks

Jared Goff vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $6,300

Goff didn’t have a great performance against the Raiders, completing only 18 of 33 passes for 233 yards. On a positive note, he did throw for two scores without tossing an interception. The Rams have built him a promising wide receiver trio of Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp, but their offense is still led by Todd Gurley. That was clear last year when Goff’s 477 pass attempts were the fourth-fewest for any quarterback who played at least 15 games. The only players who attempted fewer were DeShone Kizer, Jacoby Brissett, and Marcus Mariota. His ceiling isn’t very high, so it might be best to avoid Goff at this price, even though this isn’t a bad matchup.

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,500

Fitzpatrick was likely the biggest surprise of the opening week. Filling in for the suspended Jameis Winston, he torched the Saints for 417 passing yards and four touchdowns. He completed 75% of his passes and didn’t throw a single interception. For good measure, he added 36 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. Fitzpatrick is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league, but it’s highly unlikely he comes close to matching this performance since he threw three touchdowns in three starts combined last year. He’ll also be facing a much tougher Eagles defense, so even though he’s cheap, I’d stay away from him in tournament play.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 – Quarterbacks

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Mike Barner on September 3, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Early bird special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

The NFL season is finally here! Along with it comes another exciting year of daily fantasy football. We’ll be doing things a little differently as we look to help you fatten your wallet. We’ll be churning out four articles a week, including one each for quarterbacks, runnings backs, wide receivers and a combined piece for tight ends and defenses/special teams.

In each article, we’ll highlight some players that work for cash or GPP contents. We’ll also highlight some players to avoid as your craft your lineup. Also, don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 - Quarterbacks

Tom Brady vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $7,200

Brady had another stellar campaign in 2017, finishing with 4,577 passing yards and 32 touchdowns. It marked the sixth time in the last seven seasons that he finished with at least 4,100 yards with the only time he didn’t reach that plateau being the 2016 season when he played only 12 games due to a suspension. He also threw just eight interceptions, marking his fourth-straight season with less than 10 picks.

There has been a lot of talk heading into Week 1 about the Patriots lack of wide receivers with Julian Edelman suspended. Chris Hogan will lead that unit for now, but Brady still has star tight end Rob Gronkowski at his disposal. He also has excellent pass-catching running backs in James White and Rex Burkhead. He’ll get a favorable matchup right out of the gates against a Texans defense that allowed the second-most fantasy points per game last year to opposing quarterbacks. They did add safety Tyrann Mathieu during the offseason, but their secondary is still ranked 25th by Pro Football Focus. Brady is a safe bet to have a productive Week 1.

Drew Brees vs. Tampa Bay Buccanneers
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $6,800

The Saints turned to a more run-heavy offense last season, which resulted in a down performance from Brees. He had a stellar 72% completion percentage, but his 536 pass attempts were his lowest mark since 2009. He also threw just 23 touchdown passes, breaking a streak of nine consecutive seasons with at least 30. On a positive note, he only threw eight interceptions, his fewest since 2004.

The Saints’ running game last year was led by the two-headed monster of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Ingram will be suspended for the first four games of the season, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the Saints relied a little more on the passing game to help spell Kamara. The Saints not only have star wideout Michael Thomas, but they also added Cameron Meredith to go along with Ted Ginn Jr. A healthy Ben Watson could be a sneaky valuable weapon at tight end, as well. The Buccaneers have the 31st ranked secondary according to Pro Football Focus, leaving Brees with a high floor for this contest.

Cam Newton vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – Bank of America Stadium
FanDuel = $8,100
DraftKings = $6,900

Although Newton’s 59.1% completion percentage last year was a significant improvement from 2016, it still resulted in his fourth straight season with a completion percentage under 60%. His 3,302 passing yards were his lowest total since 2014 and he threw 16 interceptions compared to 22 touchdowns. He was a tremendous weapon in the rushing attack, though, gaining a career-high 754 yards on the ground. He also finished with six rushing scores and has at least five rushing touchdowns in every season of his career.

Part of the reason for Newton’s poor passing numbers last year may have been due to his lack of weapons. Greg Olsen missed much of the season due to injury and the Panthers were very thin at wide receiver. Olsen enters this season healthy and they added Torrey Smith and rookie D.J. Moore to go along with the emerging Devin Funchess at wide receiver. While Newton might not have as high of a ceiling as Brady and Brees, his ability to run the ball gives him a high floor most weeks.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 - Quarterbacks

Philip Rivers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $6,400

Rivers is still posting big numbers as he enters his 16th season in the NFL. He finished 2017 with 4,515 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and only 10 interceptions. He also attempted at least 570 passes and had a completion percentage of at least 60% for the fourth straight season. If you play season-long fantasy, he’s one of the more underrated safe bets to provide valuable numbers at the quarterback position.

He enters this season with plenty of weapons around him. Keenan Allen has been one of the best wide receivers in the league and promising young wide receiver Mike Williams is finally healthy heading into this year, providing Rivers with another big red zone target. The Chargers lost Hunter Henry to a torn ACL, but just brought back Antonio Gates, who has developed a great relationship with Rivers over their long careers together. The Chiefs were tied for the eighth-most fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks last year and might be even worse in 2018 after trading star cornerback Marcus Peters to the Rams.

Andy Dalton vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,800

Dalton had what may have been the worst season of his career last year. He averaged a career-low 207.5 yards per game and his 59.9% completion percentage was his worst mark since his rookie campaign. He only had 15 combined interceptions in 2015 and 2016, but he threw 12 picks last year.

The Bengals offense could be better this season with Joe Mixon looking to break out in his second season in the league. They still have star receiver A.J. Green to go with an emerging John Ross, who opened some eyes in the preseason. Don’t be surprised if they have a huge Week 1 against the Colts, who have the league’s worst secondary according to Pro Football Focus. At this cheap price, Dalton has the potential to provide significant value.

Case Keenum vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $5,100

Keenum earned a starting role with the Vikings last year and helped lead them into the playoffs. Although his 3,547 passing yards wasn’t off the charts, he had a 67.6% completion percentage to go along with 22 touchdown passes and just 7 interceptions. The Vikings made a big splash bringing in Kirk Cousins during the offseason, which ultimately resulted in Keenum joining the Broncos.

Keenum had two extremely talented pass catchers with the Vikings in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. He’ll see a downgrade at that position with the Broncos, but Demaryius and Emmanuel Sanders are still a formidable duo. They also drafted the very promising Courtland Sutton and should have a solid rushing attack with Royce Freeman and Devontae Booker. The “Legion of Boom” era is a thing of the past in Seattle as their secondary looks susceptible this year, especially with Earl Thomas still holding out. Even if Thomas does return to the team before this game, Keenum still has some upside in tournament play.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 - Quarterbacks

Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Minnesota Vikings
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $7,100
DraftKings = $5,700

Jimmy Garopplo started off his career with the 49ers in style. He only played in six games, five of which were starts, but he averaged 260 yards per contest. His seven passing touchdowns weren’t great, but he had a 67.4% completion percentage and showed a glimpse of what many believe is a bright future in the NFL. However, he draws a tough matchup this week against a very stout Vikings defense that allowed the fewest points in the NFL last year. There will be plenty of weeks that you want to roll with Garoppolo for your entry, but this might not be one of them.

Patrick Mahomes II vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $6,000

The Chiefs dealt Alex Smith to the Redskins to replace Cousins, handing over the reins to Mahomes. Selected 10th overall in the 2017 draft, it was only a matter of time before Mahomes took over the starting quarterback job. He has a big arm with talented playmakers around him including Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt, which should serve him well. However, he could be turnover prone and may go through some growing pains. Although cornerback Jason Verrett has already been lost for the season with a torn Achilles, the Chargers still have an extremely talented secondary and an excellent pass rush anchored by Joey Bosa. I’d much rather take a chance on someone like Dalton rather than Mahomes if you want to go with a cheap quarterback in tournament play.

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Cesar Becerra on January 19, 20180 Comments

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

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Vegas.

Vikings (20.75) at Eagles (17.75) | MIN [-3] | Over/Under 38.5

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

Unlike the AFC game, the NFC game isn’t your traditional top offense meets a top defense. These two teams were the top seeds in the NFC, but the Eagles aren’t the team that earned them the number 1 seed. This game features two unlikely quarterbacks and two teams that rank in the bottom 10 in pace of play and the rank as the top 2 defenses DVOA per Football Outsiders.With two relatively unproven quarterbacks and two very good defenses, it explains why the game total sits at 38.5. Both teams are expected to play really conservative and focus on protecting the ball long enough for their defense to make a play to win the game.

Philadelphia Eagles (17.5)

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

* News *

D. Ellerbe (LB) – returned to practice on Thursday (hamstring) – questionable

For the second consecutive week, the Eagles come in as home underdogs. They did just enough to win the game last week but have their hands full with the number 1 defense in the league. The Vikings’ defense ranks 1st overall, 4th against the pass, and 5th against the run. Going up against such a dominant defense, it’s no secret why they have the lowest implied total on the slate. So how will the Eagles attack this dominant Vikings defense?

There’s no double they will miss Carson Wentz. Nick Foles ($4,800) is the lowest priced quarterback on the slate. He’s had four starts as the Eagles starting quarterback but has really only played three full games. If we remove week 17 where he was rested, Foles is completing 62% of his passes and has thrown for a combined 626 yards (215 YPG), while throwing 4 touchdowns to 1 interceptions. At first glance, those numbers don’t seem half bad when considering his price tag. But those numbers are inflated from his start against the Giants. If we remove the Giants game, Foles numbers drop to a 61% completion percentage with 409 yards (204 YPG) and 1 touchdown and 1 interception. In 4 starts, Foles has yet to surpass 250 yards in any game. Even last week when he did a good job managing the game, Foles did not find the end zone. In all but one start this year Foles has yet to top 10 DK points and now going up against this stingy Minnesota defense that held Drew Brees to 62% completion percentage and picked him off twice. It’s not a good spot at all for Foles.

As you’d expect the matchup is just as bad for the Eagles receivers. Last week Alshon Jeffery ($4,600) led the receivers in targets with 5, followed by Torrey Smith ($3,000) with 4, and Nelson Agholor ($4,800) with 3. The three receivers combined for 10 catches and 124 yards (12.4 YPC) on 12 targets. If those were numbers from one receiver, we might be able to justify playing this combo receiver, but it’s not. This week they go up against Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, and Terrence Newman, all of which have a PFF grade higher than 78. Like Nick Foles, I’m not touching these Eagles wide receivers. If there is any receiver I have a slight interest in, it’s Torrey Smith. Smith offers some value because he is $3,000, plays more than 60% of the snaps, and doesn’t have to face Rhodes. On top of that, Smith still has the potential to catch a deep ball for a 60-yard touchdown. Agholor could become an essential part of the passing game with Jeffery presumably being locked up by Rhodes, but at $4,600 I rather take a shot at one of the Jags receivers given that their role is a little more stable.

I always love me some Zach Ertz ($5,300), but he disappointed last week with only 3 catches on 5 targets, and the Vikings rank 2nd in DVOA against tight ends. This season the Vikings have only allowed two tight ends to pass 50 yards and score more than 9 DK points. If I’m playing the Vegas narrative that the Eagles will be trailing in this game, Ertz is the only pass catcher that I would trust from Philadelphia’s offense.

Perhaps the most trusted Eagle this week is Jay Ajayi ($5,200). It’s only a matter of time before Doug Pederson realizes that Ajayi is the most talented back on their roster. Last week Ajayi led the team in touches with 15 carries and 3 receptions for 99 yards. Unfortunately, like the Patriots situation, Ajayi is splitting time with two other running backs. LeGarrette Blount ($3,700) is their goal-line back, and Corey Clement ($3,000) is their third-down back that gets work out of the passing game. Ajayi got 54% of the running back touches last week and is also explosive enough to break one, but after watching the Vikings front seven slow down Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram to 3.2 YPC last week, you can’t help but be hesitant about the entire Eagles offense. Kamara was able to get behind the secondary and score a 14-yard touchdown, so maybe Clement can get some of that same luck. It’s not a matchup-proof situation for these running backs, but it’s a two-game slate, you need to get risky sometime.

EAGLES PLAYS:

J. Ajayi, Eagles Defense, Z. Ertz

Minnesota Vikings (20.75)

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

* News *

A. Sendejo (FS) – limited practice on Thursday (concussion) – expected to play

A. Thielen – missed practice on Thursday (back) – Probable

The Vikings have the second highest implied total on the slate at 20.75. It’s not pretty, but that’s what you get when you have 3 top 5 defenses in the league in the final 4. The Eagles also have good defensive metrics DVOA (2nd total, 7th pass, 3rd rush). The biggest concern is how the Vikings will stop the Eagles defensive line. The Eagles relentless defensive line has 5 of PFF top 30 pass rushers with Brandon Graham (91.6), Fletcher Cox (90.7), Vinny Curry, (84.7) Tim Jernigan (82.7)and Chris Long (91.8). Their defensive line is among the best in the league and matches up well against the offensive line of the Vikings (offensive line average grade via PFF is 57.28). The Eagles are also allowing 10 fewer points per game at home opposed to on the road this season. Despite this line and home-field advantage for Philadelphia, I still like some Vikings again this week.

Case Keenum ($6,600) was able to salvage a poor fantasy day with a miracle catch by Stefon Diggs. Fortunately for Keenum, he has the best wide receiving corps left in the playoffs with Adam Thielen ($7,400) and Stefon Diggs ($6,900). Fortunately for Minnesota, the most exploitable hole in the Eagles defense is their secondary as they ranked 21st in aFPA to wide receivers, per 4for4. So the recipe for success for Keenum is to get the ball into their playmaking receivers quickly. Keenum is not a safe bet by any means because of the Eagles defensive line tendency to put pressure on the quarterback, but he has some upside with the talent he has surrounding him. I just can’t justify not spending the extra $1,100 to get Brady.

The Vikings receivers are where I would like to get exposure to this game. The Eagles secondary gave up 100 yards to Julio last week and also allowed for Sanu to go for 50 yards on 3 catches. According to PFF, the cornerback worth exploiting is Jalen Mills who has given up a league-high 9 touchdowns. Mills is not a pushover by any means, but he ranks the lowest (75) of their other two cornerbacks Patrick Robinson (89.7) and Ronald Darby (83.2). It’s difficult to say who will see Mills the most either Thielen or Diggs, especially after last week when Thielen spent the most time outside of the slot than he had all season. Part of that was due to a season-high in snap count by Jarius Wright ($3,000) who played a season-high in snaps and caught 3 of his 6 targets. I’m growing more and more confident about each of these receivers matchup this week, especially Diggs who I think should see the majority of Mills. My rankings for the Vikings receivers are Diggs, Thielen, Wright.

The Vikings running backs have done better at home than on the road, averaging 13.21 DK points at home opposed to 9.51 DK points on the road. Jerick McKinnon ($5,100) was slightly better on the road averaging 10.71 points while Latavius Murray ($5,700) averaged 8.47. In the 4 road game where the Vikings were favored, McKinnon also outscored Murray 11.65 to 8.3. In a backfield that is an actual 50-50 split, I’m torn 50-50. I feel like the game script should favor McKinnon with the Vikings moving the ball with dump-offs and screens to the running backs in hopes of slowing down the pass rush. But I’m hesitant in going all-in McKinnon over Murray because Murray has a higher floor and higher touchdown equity. Over the past two games, Murray has out-touched McKinnon 42 to 23 and has outscored McKinnon 3 to 1. Murray is the goal-line back and gets almost all of the work in the early downs. In a game that should be slow paced and slugged out, Murray could touch the ball 25 times.

VIKINGS PLAYS:

S. Diggs, J. McKinnon, A. Thielen, L. Murray, Vikings Defense

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

by Chris Tierney - cstcst on January 12, 20180 Comments

*Chris Tierney – cstcst*

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

If you’re playing DFS this weekend don’t get fancy. Who is going to win the game and how? Answer these questions for yourself prior to constructing anything from a lineup perspective. Making more than one lineup? Alter who will win and how a bit and construct again, all while keeping a similar core lineup.

As Demarcus Robinson and Josh Hill demonstrated last weekend, roughly one obscure player POPS in each playoff game. It will likely take having one of these guys on your squad to take down a large GPP. Rostering players such as these are a true dart throw and the risk often outweighs the reward. My dart throws this week are Vance McDonald and Corey Davis. Both guys can make the big play and both have decent matchups. The Jags have a great defensive backfield and are also adept at rushing the passer. Quick hitting plays to the TE and RB are two ways to attach a defense like the Jaguars. Vance McDonald made some big plays for the 49ers last season and has seen his role expand down the stretch after being injured for much of the season. Corey Davis’s role continues to expand in the Titans passing game. He had a serviceable game last weekend and faces another spotty secondary this week in a game where his offense will likely have to throw the football.

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