Even though it’s only been one week, the running back landscape across the league has already been impacted by a few key injuries. That leaves us with some added value plays to consider for Week 2 in DFS.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 – Running Backs
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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One of the themes of Week 2 was running backs racking up catches for their respective squads. Three of the top four leaders in receptions for Week 2 were runnings backs and all three of them finished with at least 80 receiving yards. There are plenty of great matchups for running backs again in Week 3, so let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain the edge in DFS. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Alvin Kamara vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $9,500
Kamara had another fairly quiet performance on the ground in Week 2, rushing 13 times for 46 yards against the Browns. However, he was heavily involved in the passing game, catching all six of his targets for 53 yards. Through the first two games, Kamara already has 15 receptions on 18 targets. He was a monster in the passing game last year, as well, hauling in 81 or 100 targets for 826 yards.
Week 3 brings a great matchup against a Falcons defense that suffered a significant loss when linebacker Deion Jones was placed on IR. Christian McCaffrey took advantage of his absence last week, catching 14 of 15 targets for 102 yards. Kamara may not get a ton of carries again, but his tremendous upside as a receiver makes him one of the best running back options available in DFS.
Saquon Barkley vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,600
The Giants looked awful offensively Sunday night against the Cowboys. Their offensive line once again had trouble protecting Eli Manning, who has clearly lost a step at this stage of his career. Manning looked to have his head on a swivel in the pocket, often checking down to Barkley to avoid the oncoming pass rush. The end result was Barkley catching 14 of 16 passes thrown his way. He didn’t have a lot of room to run, though, accumulating only 80 receiving yards. He also couldn’t get much going on the ground, carrying 11 times for 28 yards.
The Giants have talented playmakers on offense, but their offensive line and the poor play of Manning might limit some of them from reaching their full potential this year. The one positive for Barkley is that he should receive plenty of targets from Manning as he tries to quickly get the ball out of his hands. Barkley has shown an ability to force missed tackles and he can break off a big play at any moment, which gives him a high floor most weeks.
Jordan Howard vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $6,500
Howard didn’t exactly shine on Monday Night Football against the Seahawks, rushing 14 times for 35 yards. He’s failed to score a touchdown yet this year, but his involvement in the passing game has been promising. He received 32 targets in 2017, but he’s already had nine passes thrown his way across two games, hauling in eight of them for 58 yards. The Bears have another talented pass-catcher out of the backfield in Tarik Cohen, but he’s received only five targets so far.
Week 3 brings a great matchup that could potentially lead to a breakout performance from Howard. The Cardinals offense has looked terrible this year, often putting them in a big hole early. This has resulted in their opponents running the ball a lot late in games. The Cardinals haven’t provided much resistance, allowing 256 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Chris Thompson vs. Green Bay Packers
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $6,300
Thompson may not get a lot of press, but he’s one of the best pass-catching running backs in football. He proved it again in Week 2 against the Colts, catching 13 of 14 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown. He’s quickly developed a strong relationship with Alex Smith, resulting in him receiving 21 targets through the first two weeks. While Adrian Peterson was brought in to help offset the loss of Derrius Guice, Thompson’s significant role with the team remains unquestioned.
Peterson took a step backward from his 96-rushing-yard performance in Week 1, but part of that was because the Redskins were playing catchup against the Colts. Peterson ended up with 15 fewer carriers than he had in the first week. Going up against the high-powered Packers offense could force the Redskins to throw more passes in this game, as well, making Thompson a great option to target for your entry.
Giovani Bernard vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Bank of America Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $5,900
Joe Mixon couldn’t make it through Thursday Night Football unscathed and underwent a procedure to remove a small particle from his knee over the weekend. The surgery isn’t expected to sideline Bernard for too long, but he won’t be able to suit up Sunday against the Panthers.
Bernard started two games last season that Mixon also missed due to injury. One of them was a tough matchup against the Vikings where he finished with only 43 total yards, but he did score a touchdown and receive 14 carries to go along with five targets. He accumulated 130 total yards in his other start against the Bears. The Panthers have allowed 4.9 yards per carry across their first two games this season, leaving Bernard with a high ceiling considering his expected role and price in DFS.
Matt Breida vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $5,400
The 49ers were dealt a crushing blow when they lost Jerick McKinnon to a torn ACL before the season even started. In his absence, Breida and Alfred Morris became the lead duo in their backfield. After an unfavorable matchup versus the Vikings in Week 1, Breida rebounded in a big way Sunday against the Lions. He only carried the ball 11 times, but he ran for 138 yards and a score.
Another encouraging sign for Breida in Week 2 is that he received four targets. This could be a high-scoring game against the Chiefs explosive offense, which may force the 49ers to throw more than usual. The Chiefs have given up 261 receiving yards on 21 receptions to running backs so far this year. If he continues to play like he did last week, he could break away from Morris, who has averaged 3.3 yards per carry.
Corey Clement vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $4,300
The Eagles could be very thin at running back this week. Darren Sproles missed Week 2 with a hamstring injury and his status for this game against the Colts is still in doubt. Jay Ajayi also briefly left Sunday’s game with a back injury, but there have been reports that he might not be able to play this week. The Eagles already promoted Josh Adams from their practice squad, which isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for the prospects of Ajayi and Sproles taking the field.
Clement played well in Week 2 with Ajayi limited, finishing with 85 total yards and a touchdown. If Ajayi ultimately does not play in this contest, Clement should see a significant boost in value. If Sproles is also ruled out, the potential value you could receive from Clement at this might be too hard to pass up.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
LeSean McCoy vs. Minnesota Vikings
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,100
McCoy is really the only significant weapon the Bills have on offense. They have a hard enough time scoring points, to begin with, but now McCoy is dealing with a rib injury heading into Week 3. He’s listed as questionable right now, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s forced to miss at least this contest. Even if he does play, he’ll be at less than 100% against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Stay far, far away from McCoy when crafting your lineup.
Derrick Henry vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – TIAA Bank Field
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,400
Henry had the potential to become the lead running back for the Titans after the departure of DeMarco Murray, but the addition of Dion Lewis put a damper on his value. They have basically split the carries through two games with Henry getting 28 rushing attempts compared to 30 for Lewis. Lewis is clearly their preferred option as a pass-catcher, though, as he has nine targets compared to just one for Henry. There’s just not enough upside here with Henry to warrant taking a chance on him against the Jaguars stingy defense.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 2 – Running Backs
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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Week 1 wasn’t exactly a banner start for running backs across the NFL with only four players topping 100 rushing yards. Two of them were James Conner, who took advantage of the absence of Le’Veon Bell, and Isaiah Crowell, who was making his debut for the Jets. Let’s dive into the schedule for Week 2 and examine some players to target or avoid as you create your DFS lineup. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Alvin Kamara vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $9,500
Kamara only ran the ball eight times Sunday for 29 yards, but he did record two rushing touchdowns. With the Saints involved in a shootout, Kamara’s heaviest usage came in the passing game as he hauled in nine of 12 targets for 112 yards and another touchdown. Both the 12 targets and 112 receiving yards were the highest marks of his career.
It should come as no surprise that Kamara saw such a high usage catching passes out of the backfield considering he had 100 targets last year. He never had more than 12 rushing attempts in 2017, either, so don’t be surprised if he doesn’t see a major increase even with Mark Ingram suspended. That being said, he has a huge role in the Saints offense and gets another favorable matchup at home against a Browns team that allowed 135 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Conner last week.
Todd Gurley II vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,900
DraftKings = $9,200
Gurley was one of the four running backs in the NFL to top 100 rushing yards in Week 1, finishing second to Conner with 108 yards on the ground. He was also one of only five running backs to get at least 20 rushing attempts. The Rams have a lot of weapons at wide receiver, but Gurley is clearly the focal point of their offense.
The Cardinals had a hard time stopping the Redskins rushing attack in Week 1, which was led by Adrian Peterson and his 96 yards on 26 carries. Chris Thompson even chipped in 65 rushing yards on just five attempts. The Cardinals run defense was ranked 23rd heading into this season by Pro Football Focus, so their struggles out of the gate were not all that surprising. Gurley has one of the highest floors of any running back taking the field in Week 2.
Melvin Gordon III vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $8,200
DraftKings = $7,400
Gordon didn’t exactly dominate on the ground against the Chiefs, rushing 15 times for 64 yards. With the Chargers playing catch up late in the game, Gordon was actually used extensively in the passing attack, catching nine of 13 targets for 102 yards. He had a total of 83 targets in 2017 and should be a significant weapon catching passes out of the backfield again in 2018.
This could be an entirely different type of game for the Chargers against the Bills and their anemic offense. I expect Gordon to see fewer targets, as a result, but he could also get more carries if the Chargers get up big early. The Bills allowed three rushing touchdowns against the Ravens on Sunday after giving up a league-high 22 touchdowns in the ground in 2017, leaving Gordon with the potential for an extremely valuable performance.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Christian McCaffrey vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $7,000
McCaffrey was the talk of the preseason after the Panthers coaching staff stated they wanted to get him more touches this year. He didn’t exactly set the league on fire in Week 1 against the Cowboys, rushing 10 times for 50 yards. He also caught six of nine targets for 45 yards. While the overall yardage was a positive sign, McCaffrey again failed to reach the end zone after recording just seven total touchdowns in his rookie season.
This could be the week the stars align for McCaffrey against the Falcons, who allowed the most receptions by opposing running backs (107) in the league last year. They have also lost linebacker Deion Jones to a foot injury. The Panthers will also be without tight end Greg Olsen due to another foot injury of his own, opening up even more targets for McCaffrey.
Adrian Peterson vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $5,500
Peterson wasn’t overly efficient with his 3.7 yards per carry in Week 1, but it was encouraging to see him rack up 26 carries in the first game of the year. Although he was a late addition to the roster after Derrius Guice was lost for the season with a torn ACL, Peterson is clearly the lead back for the Redskins. Samaje Perine was inactive for the game and Rob Kelley received just three carries.
The Colts secondary might be one of the worst in the league, but their run defense wasn’t much better against the Bengals on Sunday, allowing Joe Mixon to accumulate 95 yards and a touchdown on only 17 carries. Peterson’s volume makes him a very appealing option to consider.
Chris Thompson vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $5,900
Thompson was limited to 10 games last season due to injury, but he was putting up big numbers catching passes out of the backfield before he went down. He averaged 13.1 yards per catch and scored a career-high four receiving touchdowns. Although he’s known more for his receiving skills, Thompson averaged 4.6 yards per carry and has averaged 5.4 yards per carry for his career, overall.
Thompson showed no signs of rust in his first regular season game since November, catching six of 7 targets for 63 yards and a score in Week 1. Add in his 65 yards on the ground and he and Peterson both topped 120 total yards against the Cardinals. There is certainly room for both of them to be successful again this week.
Phillip Lindsay vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $4,400
During training camp, Devontae Booker and Royce Freeman were battling it out for the Broncos starting running back job. Freeman entered the season at the top of the depth chart and rushed 15 times for 71 yards against the Seahawks. Booker received only two carries, but he was expected to be more heavily involved in the passing attack. Booker caught both of his targets for 11 yards, but he looks to be behind Lindsay now as well.
Lindsay flashed plenty of potential out of the gate, rushing 15 times for 71 yards and catching two of his three targets for 31 yards. He was on the field for only three fewer snaps than Freeman, but he out-snapped Booker 26 to 19. If you play in season-long fantasy, Lindsay is a hot add off waivers. He’s still very cheap in DFS for Week 2, so it might be a good idea to take advantage of the discount while you still can.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
LeSean McCoy vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,700
McCoy was not immune to the disasters of the Bills offense Sunday. In a game that was over early, he had only seven carries for 22 yards. He caught one of his three targets, losing a yard on the lone pass that he hauled in. The Bills quarterback situation is a mess and they don’t have much talent at wide receiver, either, which should allow opposing defenses to focus their efforts on stopping McCoy. With so many other quality options this week, he seems like an unnecessary risk to take.
Jamaal Williams vs. Minnesota Vikings
Stadium – Lambeau Field
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $5,200
The Packers only ran the ball 18 times Sunday night, 15 of which went to Williams. He didn’t cash in on his opportunities, averaging 3.1 yards per carry. He also failed to catch either of the two passes thrown his way. The Packers had to turn away from the run during their comeback efforts, but their offense is clearly built around Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is dealing with an injury that could at least limit him in this game, but you don’t want to start Williams either way against the stout Vikings defense
NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football: Week 6 Cash and GPP Plays
The Week 6 teams on bye aren’t as difficult to overcome compared to last week’s teams. This week the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, and Seattle Seahawks are all on bye. That being said there are a few games that are worth targeting if you are starting your research with Vegas totals. There are 7 games with a game total over 46 points, including the most appealing of them all in New Orleans (50). Let’s take a look at some plays this week from each position.
Quarterback:
As I’ve mentioned throughout this year, quarterback ownership is almost always spread out equally, that there rarely is a QB that we see over 20% owned. That figures to be the case this week with several good options on the slate.
Drew Brees (DK $7,200, FD $8,600) – Brees is surprisingly not the highest priced QB on neither DK or FD. He’s the third priced QB on both sites and is in a pretty damn good spot. If you’re a football fan, you’re well aware of Bree’s home and road splits. Brees has averaged over 300 yards and has had a 2:1 TD to interception ratio in dome stadiums. This week Brees is at home coming off a bye against a Lions team that has been over performing to start the season. To add more frosting to the cake, Brees is a slight home favorite implied to score 27.25 points. This game has the slates highest over/under (50), so Vegas is expecting these two teams to light up the scoreboard. Brees will be popular this week.
Matthew Stafford (DK $ 6,500, FD $8,500) – For all the reasons mentioned in the Brees section, I think Stafford will be popular on this slate. He’s $700 cheaper on DK than Brees so the savings could make him higher owned than Brees, but on FD he’s essentially a pick ‘em with only $100 separating the two. This game is one of the few games with a high total and a relatively close spread so if any game is going to shoot out; it will likely be this one.
Deshaun Watson (DK $6,700, FD $7,900) – Watson is another QB I expect will garnish some ownership based on his recent play. Watson has averaged 31.8 DK points over the past 3 weeks, and his price spike reflects his performance. He does have a good matchup as a home favorite against the Browns who are worst in the league in adjusted fantasy points allowed (26.3). His rushing ability gives him a nice floor for cash games, but in gpps, I like fading him for my favorite quarterback on the week (next player). He’s not a bad play at all, but he’s gotten to be a little too expensive for my taste, especially when you consider that most of his TD production last week came during garbage time against the Chiefs.
Kirk Cousins (DK $6,800, FD $ 7,800) – Cousins is the same price point as the last two QBs I mentioned above, and I feel he will be the least owned, which is why I like him for gpps. Cousins is coming off of a bye week and facing the 49ers who are coming off their second consecutive road overtime loss. Cousins and the Redskins go into week 6 with the highest implied team total (28.8) and are 10.5 point favorites. The 49ers are probably the best winless team in the league, losing 4 games by a combined 11 points, but their secondary can be attacked. Per PFF, the 49ers have 3 of the worst rated corners. Dontae Johnson rated no. 108 of 109, Rashard Robinson is no. 104, and K’Waun Williams is no. 99. The Redskins should be able to attack through the air, especially with Rob Kelly expected to be out.
Bargain Barrel:
Carson Palmer, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett
Running Backs:
Kareem Hunt (DK $8,200, FD $9,300) – I wasn’t going to write up Hunt because by now you should be aware of the amount of volume he’s been getting this season. On DK he’s $1,400 cheap than Bell, which is insane when you factor in that the Chiefs are home favorites over the Steelers. Hunt lost a lot of fantasy points last week with two flukey touchdowns by Charcandrick West. This week Hunt is going up against the Steelers who are 31st DVOA against the run and just got burned for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns from top rookie Leonard Fournette. Hunt is currently projected as our top RB this week over Bell, regardless of price.
Leonard Fournette (DK, $8,000, FD, $8,600) – Speaking of rookies. It’s about time to start talking about Fournette on a consistent basis. He’s averaging 24 touches per game and has scored in all but one game this season. There’s no secret the Jags are trying to keep the ball out of Bortles’ hands as much, which leads to Fournette carrying the offensive workload. Through the first 5 weeks, Fournette has received 70% of the carries and has been targeted 15 times. He’s going up against a Rams defense that ranks 32nd in aFPA (32.8). The Jags are a slight home favorite, so that also bodes well for Fournette.
Devonta Freeman (DK $7,400, FD $ 8,500) – Freeman is the better play on DK since his salary gives you bigger savings from the two backs mentioned above. Freeman has the luxury of playing behind the number 1 rated run blocking offensive line according to PFF. The Falcons are among the biggest home favorites this week (11.5) and are implied to score over 28 points. The Dolphins rank in the middle of the pack in aFPA with an average of 21 PPG. There’s always a concern with splitting carries with Tevin Coleman, but through the Falcons first 4 games, Freeman has 73% of the carries compared to Coleman’s 27%.
Mark Ingram (DK $4,400, FD $ 5,900) – A true committee that a lot of DFS players will have their eye on. With the trade of Adrian Peterson, this backfield is now a true timeshare between Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara (DK $4,500, FD $ 5,800). My initial thought is that Kamara will be the more popular back because of his involvement in the passing game and his big game before last week’s bye. Kamara went for 25.6 DK points on 10 receptions for 71 yards and a TD. This game has shootout written all over it so Kamara could continue to see more passing targets out of the backfield. My only concern here is that although Ingram is being phased out by the coaches, he’s still seeing over 55% of the carries and 36% of the targets. Ingram does have pass-catching upside and is still the goal line back, so he’d be the preferred choice on FD. However, on DK I think I’d have to lean on Kamara for the bigger PPR upside.
Jerick McKinnon (DK $4,100, FD $5,600) – Another running back situation that people will monitor is the Vikings’ committee. Last week in their first week without Delvin Cook, McKinnon saw 67% of the snaps compared to Murray who saw 31%. The carries were 55% for McKinnon and 41% to Murray. McKinnon led all backs with 6 receptions on 6 targets, while Murray seemed to be phased out in the second half. McKinnon was more successful with his workload averaging 5.9 YPC compared to Murray’s 2.6. McKinnon is currently rated as our top value play (points per dollar) on DK and FD.
Chris Thompson (DK $5,000) – A nice GPP pivot off the chalkier cheaper options I mentioned above. If Rob Kelly misses like the reports indicate he is, Thompson could be a great gpp option against the 49ers. He’s not that cheap on DK but has a lot of upside. Samaje Perine could work the early downs but Thompson is the featured back in the passing game, which I expect the Redskins to focus on.
Other Viable Options:
CJ Anderson, M. Gordon, T. Gurley, A. Jones *T. Montgomery out*, L. Miller, E. McGuire.
Wide Receivers:
Wide Receiver is a little more open season when compared to running backs. There are a lot of teams that are big favorites so there are really only a few passing offenses that you want to use.
DeAndre Hopkins (DK $8,100, FD $8,000) – Nuke’s price took a STEEP hike on DK, rising over $1,700 after a 3 touchdown performance against the Chiefs. But even at over 8K, that price is finally warranted for a guy that is receiving over 12 targets per game. Through 5 weeks of the season, Hopkins only trails Antonio Brown for most targets in the league. This week Hopkins has an above average matchup against Jason McCourty, who actually has a great grade on PFF(91.7), but the past two seasons he’s averaged a grade in the mid 50’s. It’s also worth noting that Hopkins is expected to lineup against Jamar Taylor (has a 45.1 PFF rating) in two WR sets. Hopkins should be able to produce with the 12+ targets he’s expected to see.
Julio Jones (DK, $8,300, FD $8,400) – I have yet to roster Julio this season, and thankfully so. Julio has yet to score this year and only has 30 targets on the season (4 games). But I have a feeling this is the week we see Julio get back on track. The Falcons are really thin at WR and Julio will be facing either Cordrea Tankersley or Xavien Howard. Regardless of who Julio matches up against, he’s virtually matchup proof. Julio notoriously plays better at home than on the road. It’s about time Julio finds the endzone this week.
Pierre Garcon (DK $ 6,300, FD $6,800) – I loved Garcon last week against the Colts despite going up against Vontae Davis. This week I want to go back to the well in a game that I expect the 49ers to be trailing. The Redskins will be without Josh Norman which helps Garcon. Garcon is currently 8th in the league in targets with 44 through 5 games. This week Garcon could face Quinton Dunbar and Bashaud Breeland who are both targetable corners. I expect Garcon to get 10-12 targets this game and can very well see him putting up over 14 fantasy points.
Adam Thielen (DK $6,000 FD $6,500) – Thielen gets a great matchup here against a bad Packers secondary. Thielen is the primary slot receiver for the Vikings so he’ll face Quinten Rollins who is one of the worst slot corners according to PFF. The Packers should jump out to an early lead, which would mean the Vikings would have to pass the ball more. It’s worth monitoring Bradford’s status as game day gets closer.
Cash Viable Plays:
M. Thomas, K.Allen, L. Fitzgerald, J. Landry, G. Tate, C. Hogan, A. Cooper.
Gpp Flyers:
D. Jackson, John Brown, M. Jones Jr., T. Hill, D. Amendola, B. Cooks, T. Pryor Sr.
Value Receivers
A. Wilson, J. Kearse, J. Crowder.
Tight Ends:
Hunter Henry (DK $4,100, FD $5,400) – Henry looks to have finally taken over the tight end position for the Chargers. After 3 weeks of force-feeding Antonio Gates, Henry has finally become a part of the offense. He has now scored in two straight weeks. He ran 33 routes in over 75% of snaps he played last week.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (DK $4,300, FD $5,600) – ASJ came through last week by scoring a touchdown. That now gives him an average of 6 targets the past 3 weeks. He’s going up against the Patriots who will get out to a big lead and have allowed the most passing yards in the league.
Travis Kelce (DK $6,100, FD $7,200) – Kelce is the top projected TE on both sites this week. Kelce has 20 targets the last two weeks. Keep an eye out on the Chiefs injury report to make sure Kelce is active.
Defense:
There are 5 teams that are currently more than a touchdown favorite. The Patriots are the only team in that bunch that is not at home. The Ravens (16.5), Falcons (17.25), Redskins (18), Texans (18.5), and the Patriots (20) are all going up against teams implied to score less than 20 points. Defense is very volatile so any one of these could land atop the leaderboards. The Ravens are currently our top projected defense. While the Bucs are the best value projected to score nearly 3x.
Good Luck!