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MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 15

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 15

Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. STL, vs. SD

After missing almost two months with an oblique injury, Ray returned to face the Marlins last week. It was a great matchup for his first game back and he took full advantage, striking out six batters in six scoreless innings. Ray had a breakout campaign last year, finishing with a 2.89 ERA, 3.72 FIP, and a 1.15 WHIP. He provided a ton of strikeouts with a 12.1 K/9 and he’s been even better this season with a 13.6 K/9 across seven starts. The Cardinals have the fifth-lowest OPS against left-handed pitchers (.676) in baseball and the Padres have scored the fifth-fewest runs (321) overall, setting Ray up for an excellent Week 15.

Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies: vs. BAL, at PIT

Eflin couldn’t have pitched much worse than he did in 2017, posting a 6.16 ERA, 6.10 FIP and a 1.42 WHIP across 11 starts. He wasn’t a big strikeout pitcher either with a 4.9 K/9. With tremendous improvement in that area leading to a 9.1 K/9, Eflin has a 3.02 ERA, 2.86 FIP, and a 1.13 WHIP this season. His .295 opponents BABIP is right in line with his career mark, which is good news for his prognosis moving forward. He was particularly hot in the month of June, recording a 1.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in five starts. The Orioles have scored the second-fewest runs (305) in baseball and the Pirates are in the bottom-third in terms of OPS against righties, so look for Eflin to continue his recent run of success.

Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins: at MIL, vs. BAL

Like Eflin, Gibson was bad last year with a 5.07 ERA, 4.85 FIP, and a 1.53 WHIP. It marked his second straight season with a WHIP of at least 1.53 and an ERA of 5.07. He’s taken his game in the opposite direction this year with a 3.48 ERA, 3.87 FIP, and a 1.24 WHIP. Not only has his ability to limit baserunners been a key part of his success, but he also has a career-high 8.7 K/9 after never finishing a season with a K/9 higher than 6.9. He allowed five runs in his last start against the White Sox, but he did pitch seven innings and recorded seven strikeouts. He had allowed three runs or fewer in each of his previous six outings. The Brewers aren’t exactly a bad offensive team, but they are middle of the pack in terms of runs scored. With the weak Orioles lineup in his second start, Gibson is a streaming option with upside who is still available in 67% of Yahoo! leagues.

Nathan Eovaldi, Tampa Bay Rays: at MIA, at NYM

Eovaldi has had his ups and downs since returning from Tommy John surgery, but his overall numbers aren’t bad as he has a 4.08 ERA, 4.87 FIP and a 0.82 WHIP in six starts. The Rays rotation is a mess due to injuries, leaving Eovaldi as one of the few healthy traditional starters they have left. He doesn’t have great strikeout potential with a 6.6 K/9 for his career, but you don’t see many better two-start weeks than this. He’ll get to avoid the DH pitching in two National League stadiums and he’ll also get to face two of the bottom-four teams in runs scored. Eovaldi is still available in 75% of Yahoo! leagues and could provide a big boost in Week 15.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 15

Jakob Junis, Kansas City Royals: vs. CLE, vs. BOS

Junis had a stretch of success early on this season, but he’s allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts. He allowed at least three home runs in all three of those games and has a 2.1 HR/9 overall. He allowed 1.4 HR/9 in 2017, so this isn’t just an isolated bad stretch. The Indians and Red Sox are both in the top-three in home runs and the top-six in runs scored, so make sure Junis is anchored to your bench.

Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres: at OAK, at ARI

Richard had his best month of the season in June, posting a 3.27 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in five starts. Two of those outings came against the Braves, making his success even more impressive. His overall numbers don’t stand out, but he hasn’t been bad either with a 4.29 ERA, 3.88 FIP, and a 1.23 WHIP. He’ll have to deal with the DH playing in Oakland for his first start, which is no easy task since the Athletics are tied for the fifth-most home runs (112) in baseball. Despite their struggles to score runs earlier this year, the Diamondbacks have the eight-highest OPS against lefties (.764). Since Richard doesn’t provide much in the way of strikeouts, this may be a good week to keep him out of your lineup.

Anibal Sanchez, Atlanta Braves: at NYY, at MIL

Sanchez was hit hard as a member of the Tigers last year, finishing with a 6.41 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. The Braves have a lot of talented young starters coming up through their system. but decided to take a flier on Sanchez to provide veteran depth. It’s proven to be an excellent signing so far as Sanchez has a 2.68 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in nine appearances, eight of which are starts. He has been a bit lucky, though, based on his 4.05 FIP and .238 BABIP allowed. This could be the week his numbers start to take a turn for the worse since he will face Yankees in Yankee Stadium for his first start. That game alone makes him someone to avoid.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 11

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
June special! Use Code PAMLB30 at checkout

If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 11

Luis Severino, New York Yankees: at DET, at NYM

The Yankees potent lineup gets the majority of the headlines, but Severino is just as important as anyone on the team. He put together a breakout campaign in 2017, finishing with a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a 10.7 K/9. He’s been even better through his first 12 starts this year with a 2.31 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and a 10.6 K/9. His average fastball velocity is 98.2 mph and he has thrown a first-pitch strike to an impressive 70.1% of the batters that he has faced. The Mets are tied for the fourth-fewest runs scored (230) in baseball and the Tigers lineup has been middle of the pack, leaving Severino with the potential for an extremely valuable week.

Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals: vs. MIA, at CIN

Martinez has not pitched in almost a month due to a strained lat, but he will be activated from the disabled list Tuesday. He had a sparkling 1.62 ERA before the injury, but his 3.35 FIP and .237 opponents BABIP indicate he has been a bit lucky. The FIP is still good, though, and he’s only allowed one home run in 50 innings. His first start of the week comes against a Marlins team that has scored the fewest runs (196) in baseball. The Reds are certainly better offensively, but Martinez has already faced them twice this year, throwing 13 scoreless innings while recording 18 strikeouts. Get him right back into your lineup.

Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs: vs. PHI, vs. PIT

Hendricks isn’t a big strikeout pitcher with a 7.6 K/9 for his career. He doesn’t walk many hitters and does a good job keeping runners off base in general, which has helped him quietly become a very successful pitcher. He’s off to another good start this year with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He doesn’t get hit hard often, allowing more than three earned runs in a game only one time this season. The Phillies are in the bottom-third of the league in runs scored and while the Pirates have scored more runs, Hendricks has held them to four runs in 11 innings in their first two meetings this year.

Nick Tropeano, Los Angeles Angels: vs. KC, at MIN

Tropeano missed the entire 2017 season after having Tommy John surgery and hasn’t made more than 13 starts in a season during his career. He’s been able to make eight starts so far this year, posting a 3.80 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. His 4.91 FIP and 1.6 HR/9 are a bit concerning, limiting his upside over the course of the season. This is setting up to be a nice week for him, though, against the Royals and Twins as neither team scores a ton of runs. He has already faced both teams once this season, throwing 6.2 scoreless innings and recording six strikeouts against the Royals while allowing three runs to go along with two strikeouts in six innings against the Twins. Tropeano is still available in 82% of Yahoo! leagues and is a viable streaming option.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 11

Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks: at SF, at COL

Godley isn’t off to a great start with a 4.38 ERA and a 4.44 FIP through 11 outings. His success last year was in large part due to his 1.14 WHIP, which has ballooned to 1.54 this year. His .316 BABIP allowed isn’t much higher than his career mark, which is not good news for his value moving forward. His first matchup this week against the Giants is not bad, but his second outing in Coors Field could be a nightmare. That game alone is a reason to keep him on your bench in Week 11.

Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres: vs. ATL, at MIA

It’s been another underwhelming season for Richard, who has a 4.74 ERA and a 4.14 FIP in 12 starts. His 1.31 WHIP isn’t terrible, but he has very little strikeout upside with a 5.9 K/9 for his career. His second start this week against the Marlins is a great matchup, but don’t get too excited about him as a streaming option. The Braves are not only tied for the fourth-most runs scored (293) in baseball, but they also have the highest OPS against lefties (.806). Since he likely won’t provide a lot of strikeouts even in his start against the Marlins, it might be best to avoid him altogether.

Jason Vargas, New York Mets: vs. BAL, vs. NYY

Vargas won a career-high 18 games for the Royals last year and made the All-Star team for the first time. He moved to the Mets in the offseason but he has been limited to six starts due to injury. He was hammered in his first three outings but hasn’t given up a run in two of his last three starts. One of those came against the Braves, which is particularly impressive considering their success against lefties. Even with his recent success, you still want to stay away from streaming him this week. The Orioles aren’t exactly imposing, but the Yankees have the second-highest OPS against lefties (.799) and can still do a ton of damage even without the luxury of having the DH playing at Citi Field.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 3

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 3

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Poor weather has made the start of the season a bit unpredictable in terms of the schedule, but it’s only going to get better as we get further away from the beginning of April. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. He are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 3

Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians: vs. DET, vs. TOR

Anytime an ace like Kluber gets two starts in a week, you are likely off to a good start if you have him in your league. Kluber is still looking for his first win of the season, but he has a sparkling 2.40 ERA and 0.80 WHIP after his first two starts. Both of his starts this week are at home, where he had a 1.81 ERA and 12.3 K/9 last season. With one of his starts being against the rebuilding Tigers. Kluber is on the cusp of providing excellent production for fantasy owners.

Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels: at TEX, at KC

Richards has had trouble staying healthy, throwing a total of 61.1 innings in the last two seasons. He was great when he was able to take the mound, posting a FIP of 3.32 or lower in both seasons. He’s not off to the best of starts this year with a 5.06 ERA and 6.50 FIP through two starts. However, he has allowed just an 18.5% hard-hit rate. He showed his strikeout upside in his last start Tuesday against the Indians, recording nine of them in 5.2 innings. The Royals are last in the majors with only 16 runs scored so far this season, so Richards could be in line for a valuable week.

Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners: at KC, vs. OAK

Gonzales did not pitch at all in 2016 and was limited to 40 innings in 2017 due to Tommy John surgery. Once thought of to be the future of the Cardinals starting rotation, he was traded to the Mariners last season. The Mariners minor league system is lacking talent, making the 26-year-old Gonzales and important part of their future. He allowed three earned runs over six innings in his first start of the season against the Giants, but only recorded two strikeouts. His second start of Week 3 is no cake walk against an Athletics lineup that has plenty of power, but his first start against the anemic Royals offense at least brings him into the conversation as someone to start this week. He is still available in 88% of Yahoo! leagues as well.

Ben Lively, Philadelphia Phillies: vs. CIN, at TB

Lively doesn’t jump off the page as someone you’d want to start. He did not have a great season last year, posting a 4.97 FIP and just 5.3 K/9 in 88.2 innings. He does have good control though, posting a 2.4 BB/9 last year and a 2.6 BB/9 during his time in the minors. Home runs weren’t a problem for him in the minors either, recording a 0.6 HR/9 in 603.1 career innings. Week 3 brings two struggling lineups in the Reds and Rays, who are both in the bottom-four in baseball for runs scored in the earlier going. If you are streaming starters, Lively is still available in 95% of Yahoo! leagues.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 3

Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves: at WAS, at Cubs

Teheran is off to a disastrous start, allowing nine earned runs in eight innings over his first two starts. After allowing a career-high 31 home runs last year, he already gave up four in those first two outings. He was a much better pitcher on the road last year, but he’ll face two tough lineups in the Nationals and Cubs. He just faced the Nationals on Tuesday, giving up five earned runs in only 2.1 innings. Keep him out of your lineup for Week 3.

Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres: at COL, vs. SF

The “ace” of the Padres would be a back of the rotation starter on most teams. Not only did he have a 4.79 ERA last year, but he struggled to keep runners off base, resulting in a 1.52 WHIP. He allowed a 35% hard-hit rate and only had a 6.9 K/9, so he really wasn’t fooling anyone. With a rough road game in Coors Field among his two starts for Week 3, don’t consider him as a streaming option for your team.

Francisco Liriano, Detroit Tigers: at CLE, vs. NYY

Liriano made his debut in the majors back in 2005, so it’s hard to believe that he’s only 34 years old. Although he’s not much more than a journeyman pitcher at this point in his career, he made the starting rotation out of spring training for the rebuilding Tigers. He only allowed one earned run in 6.2 innings in his first start of 2018, but it came against the Royals. This week brings much tougher opponents, especially a Yankees lineup that provides a lot of problems for left-handed pitchers. Don’t overreact to one good start, stay away from Liriano.