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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 – Running Backs

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

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One of the themes of Week 2 was running backs racking up catches for their respective squads. Three of the top four leaders in receptions for Week 2 were runnings backs and all three of them finished with at least 80 receiving yards. There are plenty of great matchups for running backs again in Week 3, so let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain the edge in DFS. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 - Running Backs

Alvin Kamara vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $9,500

Kamara had another fairly quiet performance on the ground in Week 2, rushing 13 times for 46 yards against the Browns. However, he was heavily involved in the passing game, catching all six of his targets for 53 yards. Through the first two games, Kamara already has 15 receptions on 18 targets. He was a monster in the passing game last year, as well, hauling in 81 or 100 targets for 826 yards.

Week 3 brings a great matchup against a Falcons defense that suffered a significant loss when linebacker Deion Jones was placed on IR. Christian McCaffrey took advantage of his absence last week, catching 14 of 15 targets for 102 yards. Kamara may not get a ton of carries again, but his tremendous upside as a receiver makes him one of the best running back options available in DFS.

Saquon Barkley vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,600

The Giants looked awful offensively Sunday night against the Cowboys. Their offensive line once again had trouble protecting Eli Manning, who has clearly lost a step at this stage of his career. Manning looked to have his head on a swivel in the pocket, often checking down to Barkley to avoid the oncoming pass rush. The end result was Barkley catching 14 of 16 passes thrown his way. He didn’t have a lot of room to run, though, accumulating only 80 receiving yards. He also couldn’t get much going on the ground, carrying 11 times for 28 yards.

The Giants have talented playmakers on offense, but their offensive line and the poor play of Manning might limit some of them from reaching their full potential this year. The one positive for Barkley is that he should receive plenty of targets from Manning as he tries to quickly get the ball out of his hands. Barkley has shown an ability to force missed tackles and he can break off a big play at any moment, which gives him a high floor most weeks.

Jordan Howard vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $6,500

Howard didn’t exactly shine on Monday Night Football against the Seahawks, rushing 14 times for 35 yards. He’s failed to score a touchdown yet this year, but his involvement in the passing game has been promising. He received 32 targets in 2017, but he’s already had nine passes thrown his way across two games, hauling in eight of them for 58 yards. The Bears have another talented pass-catcher out of the backfield in Tarik Cohen, but he’s received only five targets so far.

Week 3 brings a great matchup that could potentially lead to a breakout performance from Howard. The Cardinals offense has looked terrible this year, often putting them in a big hole early. This has resulted in their opponents running the ball a lot late in games. The Cardinals haven’t provided much resistance, allowing 256 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 - Running Backs

Chris Thompson vs. Green Bay Packers
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $6,300

Thompson may not get a lot of press, but he’s one of the best pass-catching running backs in football. He proved it again in Week 2 against the Colts, catching 13 of 14 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown. He’s quickly developed a strong relationship with Alex Smith, resulting in him receiving 21 targets through the first two weeks. While Adrian Peterson was brought in to help offset the loss of Derrius Guice, Thompson’s significant role with the team remains unquestioned.

Peterson took a step backward from his 96-rushing-yard performance in Week 1, but part of that was because the Redskins were playing catchup against the Colts. Peterson ended up with 15 fewer carriers than he had in the first week. Going up against the high-powered Packers offense could force the Redskins to throw more passes in this game, as well, making Thompson a great option to target for your entry.

Giovani Bernard vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Bank of America Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $5,900

Joe Mixon couldn’t make it through Thursday Night Football unscathed and underwent a procedure to remove a small particle from his knee over the weekend. The surgery isn’t expected to sideline Bernard for too long, but he won’t be able to suit up Sunday against the Panthers.

Bernard started two games last season that Mixon also missed due to injury. One of them was a tough matchup against the Vikings where he finished with only 43 total yards, but he did score a touchdown and receive 14 carries to go along with five targets. He accumulated 130 total yards in his other start against the Bears. The Panthers have allowed 4.9 yards per carry across their first two games this season, leaving Bernard with a high ceiling considering his expected role and price in DFS.

Matt Breida vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $5,400

The 49ers were dealt a crushing blow when they lost Jerick McKinnon to a torn ACL before the season even started. In his absence, Breida and Alfred Morris became the lead duo in their backfield. After an unfavorable matchup versus the Vikings in Week 1, Breida rebounded in a big way Sunday against the Lions. He only carried the ball 11 times, but he ran for 138 yards and a score.

Another encouraging sign for Breida in Week 2 is that he received four targets. This could be a high-scoring game against the Chiefs explosive offense, which may force the 49ers to throw more than usual. The Chiefs have given up 261 receiving yards on 21 receptions to running backs so far this year. If he continues to play like he did last week, he could break away from Morris, who has averaged 3.3 yards per carry.

Corey Clement vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $4,300

The Eagles could be very thin at running back this week. Darren Sproles missed Week 2 with a hamstring injury and his status for this game against the Colts is still in doubt. Jay Ajayi also briefly left Sunday’s game with a back injury, but there have been reports that he might not be able to play this week. The Eagles already promoted Josh Adams from their practice squad, which isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for the prospects of Ajayi and Sproles taking the field.

Clement played well in Week 2 with Ajayi limited, finishing with 85 total yards and a touchdown. If Ajayi ultimately does not play in this contest, Clement should see a significant boost in value. If Sproles is also ruled out, the potential value you could receive from Clement at this might be too hard to pass up.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 - Running Backs

LeSean McCoy vs. Minnesota Vikings
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,100

McCoy is really the only significant weapon the Bills have on offense. They have a hard enough time scoring points, to begin with, but now McCoy is dealing with a rib injury heading into Week 3. He’s listed as questionable right now, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s forced to miss at least this contest. Even if he does play, he’ll be at less than 100% against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Stay far, far away from McCoy when crafting your lineup.

Derrick Henry vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – TIAA Bank Field
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,400

Henry had the potential to become the lead running back for the Titans after the departure of DeMarco Murray, but the addition of Dion Lewis put a damper on his value. They have basically split the carries through two games with Henry getting 28 rushing attempts compared to 30 for Lewis. Lewis is clearly their preferred option as a pass-catcher, though, as he has nine targets compared to just one for Henry. There’s just not enough upside here with Henry to warrant taking a chance on him against the Jaguars stingy defense.

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

 

 

Vegas.

Vikings (20.75) at Eagles (17.75) | MIN [-3] | Over/Under 38.5

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

Unlike the AFC game, the NFC game isn’t your traditional top offense meets a top defense. These two teams were the top seeds in the NFC, but the Eagles aren’t the team that earned them the number 1 seed. This game features two unlikely quarterbacks and two teams that rank in the bottom 10 in pace of play and the rank as the top 2 defenses DVOA per Football Outsiders.With two relatively unproven quarterbacks and two very good defenses, it explains why the game total sits at 38.5. Both teams are expected to play really conservative and focus on protecting the ball long enough for their defense to make a play to win the game.

Philadelphia Eagles (17.5)

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

* News * 

D. Ellerbe (LB) – returned to practice on Thursday (hamstring) – questionable

For the second consecutive week, the Eagles come in as home underdogs. They did just enough to win the game last week but have their hands full with the number 1 defense in the league. The Vikings’ defense ranks 1st overall, 4th against the pass, and 5th against the run. Going up against such a dominant defense, it’s no secret why they have the lowest implied total on the slate. So how will the Eagles attack this dominant Vikings defense?

There’s no double they will miss Carson Wentz. Nick Foles ($4,800) is the lowest priced quarterback on the slate. He’s had four starts as the Eagles starting quarterback but has really only played three full games. If we remove week 17 where he was rested, Foles is completing 62% of his passes and has thrown for a combined 626 yards (215 YPG), while throwing 4 touchdowns to 1 interceptions. At first glance, those numbers don’t seem half bad when considering his price tag. But those numbers are inflated from his start against the Giants. If we remove the Giants game, Foles numbers drop to a 61% completion percentage with 409 yards (204 YPG) and 1 touchdown and 1 interception. In 4 starts, Foles has yet to surpass 250 yards in any game. Even last week when he did a good job managing the game, Foles did not find the end zone. In all but one start this year Foles has yet to top 10 DK points and now going up against this stingy Minnesota defense that held Drew Brees to 62% completion percentage and picked him off twice. It’s not a good spot at all for Foles.

As you’d expect the matchup is just as bad for the Eagles receivers. Last week Alshon Jeffery ($4,600) led the receivers in targets with 5, followed by Torrey Smith ($3,000) with 4, and Nelson Agholor ($4,800) with 3. The three receivers combined for 10 catches and 124 yards (12.4 YPC) on 12 targets. If those were numbers from one receiver, we might be able to justify playing this combo receiver, but it’s not. This week they go up against Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, and Terrence Newman, all of which have a PFF grade higher than 78. Like Nick Foles, I’m not touching these Eagles wide receivers. If there is any receiver I have a slight interest in, it’s Torrey Smith. Smith offers some value because he is $3,000, plays more than 60% of the snaps, and doesn’t have to face Rhodes. On top of that, Smith still has the potential to catch a deep ball for a 60-yard touchdown. Agholor could become an essential part of the passing game with Jeffery presumably being locked up by Rhodes, but at $4,600 I rather take a shot at one of the Jags receivers given that their role is a little more stable.

I always love me some Zach Ertz ($5,300), but he disappointed last week with only 3 catches on 5 targets, and the Vikings rank 2nd in DVOA against tight ends. This season the Vikings have only allowed two tight ends to pass 50 yards and score more than 9 DK points. If I’m playing the Vegas narrative that the Eagles will be trailing in this game, Ertz is the only pass catcher that I would trust from Philadelphia’s offense.

Perhaps the most trusted Eagle this week is Jay Ajayi ($5,200). It’s only a matter of time before Doug Pederson realizes that Ajayi is the most talented back on their roster. Last week Ajayi led the team in touches with 15 carries and 3 receptions for 99 yards. Unfortunately, like the Patriots situation, Ajayi is splitting time with two other running backs. LeGarrette Blount ($3,700) is their goal-line back, and Corey Clement ($3,000) is their third-down back that gets work out of the passing game. Ajayi got 54% of the running back touches last week and is also explosive enough to break one, but after watching the Vikings front seven slow down Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram to 3.2 YPC last week, you can’t help but be hesitant about the entire Eagles offense. Kamara was able to get behind the secondary and score a 14-yard touchdown, so maybe Clement can get some of that same luck. It’s not a matchup-proof situation for these running backs, but it’s a two-game slate, you need to get risky sometime.

EAGLES PLAYS:

J. Ajayi, Eagles Defense, Z. Ertz

Minnesota Vikings (20.75)

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

* News * 

A. Sendejo (FS) – limited practice on Thursday (concussion) – expected to play

A. Thielen – missed practice on Thursday (back) – Probable

The Vikings have the second highest implied total on the slate at 20.75. It’s not pretty, but that’s what you get when you have 3 top 5 defenses in the league in the final 4. The Eagles also have good defensive metrics DVOA (2nd total, 7th pass, 3rd rush). The biggest concern is how the Vikings will stop the Eagles defensive line. The Eagles relentless defensive line has 5 of PFF top 30 pass rushers with Brandon Graham (91.6), Fletcher Cox (90.7), Vinny Curry, (84.7) Tim Jernigan (82.7)and Chris Long (91.8). Their defensive line is among the best in the league and matches up well against the offensive line of the Vikings (offensive line average grade via PFF is 57.28). The Eagles are also allowing 10 fewer points per game at home opposed to on the road this season. Despite this line and home-field advantage for Philadelphia, I still like some Vikings again this week.

Case Keenum ($6,600) was able to salvage a poor fantasy day with a miracle catch by Stefon Diggs. Fortunately for Keenum, he has the best wide receiving corps left in the playoffs with Adam Thielen ($7,400) and Stefon Diggs ($6,900). Fortunately for Minnesota, the most exploitable hole in the Eagles defense is their secondary as they ranked 21st in aFPA to wide receivers, per 4for4. So the recipe for success for Keenum is to get the ball into their playmaking receivers quickly. Keenum is not a safe bet by any means because of the Eagles defensive line tendency to put pressure on the quarterback, but he has some upside with the talent he has surrounding him. I just can’t justify not spending the extra $1,100 to get Brady.

The Vikings receivers are where I would like to get exposure to this game. The Eagles secondary gave up 100 yards to Julio last week and also allowed for Sanu to go for 50 yards on 3 catches. According to PFF, the cornerback worth exploiting is Jalen Mills who has given up a league-high 9 touchdowns. Mills is not a pushover by any means, but he ranks the lowest (75) of their other two cornerbacks Patrick Robinson (89.7) and Ronald Darby (83.2). It’s difficult to say who will see Mills the most either Thielen or Diggs, especially after last week when Thielen spent the most time outside of the slot than he had all season. Part of that was due to a season-high in snap count by Jarius Wright ($3,000) who played a season-high in snaps and caught 3 of his 6 targets. I’m growing more and more confident about each of these receivers matchup this week, especially Diggs who I think should see the majority of Mills. My rankings for the Vikings receivers are Diggs, Thielen, Wright.

The Vikings running backs have done better at home than on the road, averaging 13.21 DK points at home opposed to 9.51 DK points on the road. Jerick McKinnon ($5,100) was slightly better on the road averaging 10.71 points while Latavius Murray ($5,700) averaged 8.47. In the 4 road game where the Vikings were favored, McKinnon also outscored Murray 11.65 to 8.3. In a backfield that is an actual 50-50 split, I’m torn 50-50. I feel like the game script should favor McKinnon with the Vikings moving the ball with dump-offs and screens to the running backs in hopes of slowing down the pass rush. But I’m hesitant in going all-in McKinnon over Murray because Murray has a higher floor and higher touchdown equity. Over the past two games, Murray has out-touched McKinnon 42 to 23 and has outscored McKinnon 3 to 1. Murray is the goal-line back and gets almost all of the work in the early downs. In a game that should be slow paced and slugged out, Murray could touch the ball 25 times.

VIKINGS PLAYS:

S. Diggs, J. McKinnon, A. Thielen, L. Murray, Vikings Defense