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Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

The MLB offseason is often referred to as the “Hot Stove” due to all of the trades and signings that occur in the winter months. However, the market has developed extremely slowly this year, leaving several impact players still left unsigned. As we continue our fantasy baseball season preview series, we’ll take a look at some big names who are available and the potential impact they could have this season.

J.D. Martinez, OF

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

Martinez had his breakout campaign with the Tigers when he batted .282 with 38 home runs, 102 RBI and 93 runs scored in 2015. The Tigers decided to start the rebuilding process last year, shipping Martinez to the Diamondbacks. He went on to have a scorching hot finish, hitting .302 with 29 home runs, 65 RBI and 47 runs scored in only 62 games with his new team.

Martinez is still on the market and should command a hefty contract. He’s not a great defender, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he ends up in the American League where he can also spend some time at DH, especially towards the end of his contract. He’s only played more than 123 games once in his career, so it might be tough for him to hold up as an everyday outfielder as he gets older.

No matter where Martinez signs, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be able to perform at the rate he did with the Diamondbacks. He hit a home run ever 8.0 at-bats with Arizona, which is far more frequent than his career average of once every 18.6 at-bats. Even during his stellar 2015 season, he only hit a home run once every 15.7 at-bats. He does hit for a high average, so he doesn’t need to hit over 40 home runs to still be an extremely valuable fantasy asset. Expect him to finish this season around the top-10 fantasy outfielders.

Yu Darvish, SP

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

Darvish is the big fish still left in the sea when it comes to starting pitchers with rumored interested suitors being the Yankees, Twins, Brewers, Cubs, Rangers, and Dodgers. Although he struggled mightily in the World Series, his strong finish with the Dodgers was a big part of why they made it that far.

The good news from a fantasy perspective is that Darvish pitched 186.2 innings during the regular season. He missed the entire 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery and pitched only 100.1 innings in 2016. He’s an elite strikeout pitcher when healthy, posting an 11.0 K/9 for his career. No matter where he signs, Darvish should still provide strong value in most categories. However, if you play in a league that counts wins, you’d like to see him sign with a team that has a potent offense and a strong bullpen. If he ultimately ends up with the Cubs, Dodgers or Yankees, he could surpass his previous career-high of 16 wins that he set back in 2012.

Eric Hosmer, 1B

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

The first base market has been slow to develop with many of baseball’s better teams already set at the position. Hosmer has had limited suitors as a result, with the two primary teams reportedly interested being the Royals and the Padres.

Hosmer is not your traditional masher at first base. He’s never hit more than 25 home runs in a season and has reached at least 100 RBI only one time during his career. The good news is he set career-highs last year in batting average (.318) and OBP (.385). He only had a strikeout percentage of 15.5% as well, marking the fourth time in his career he has finished under 16%.

The bad news with Hosmer is that he’s been wildly inconsistent. For example, his batting averages the last four seasons have been .270, .297, .266 and .318, respectively. Those are some big swings when you consider you aren’t drafting him for his ability to hit home runs. With so many other elite options at first base, expect Hosmer to rank someone between 10 and 15 at the position when the season is all said and done.

Mike Moustakas, 3B

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

Moustakas if a former first-round pick who has spent his entire seven-year career with the Royals. He had largely not lived up to the hype heading into the 2017 season, making only one All-Star team during his career. The one time he received that honor was in 2015 when he finished the season batting .284 with 22 home runs, 82 RBI, and 73 runs scored. Those are solid numbers, but nothing to write home about.

He finally had his breakout season in 2017, hitting a franchise-record 38 home runs. The problem was the Royals were one of the worst offensive teams in the league, resulting in 27 of his home runs being solo shots. He finished with just 85 RBI and 75 runs scored.

Considering he hit so many home runs, it’s impressive that he only had a 15.7% strikeout percentage. It’s not out of the ordinary for Moustakas though as he has a 15.5% strikeout percentage for his career. He did appear to take a more aggressive approach at the plate though, seeing only 3.78 pitchers per plate appearance, the second fewest of his career. Also, he struck out swinging on 96.8% of his strikeouts last year, by far the highest percentage of his career.

There hasn’t been a lot of buzz surrounding Moustakas this winter, but he could actually see an increase in value if he leaves the Royals. Of his 38 home runs last year, 24 of them came on the road. If he moves to a team with a more hitter-friendly ballpark, he could approach 30 home runs again this season. Landing on a potent offensive team like the Yankees would be ideal. Even if he finds the perfect fit, his ceiling isn’t much higher than that of a top 12-to-15 third baseman in fantasy baseball.

Lorenzo Cain, OF

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

Cain certainly wasn’t the cause of the Royals anemic offense last year, batting .300 with a career-high .363 OBP. It marked the third time in the last four seasons that he finished with a batting average of at least .300. Not only did he have a career-low 15.5% strikeout percentage, but he also recorded a career-high 8.4% walk percentage.

Cain can provide value with his speed, stealing at least 26 bases in three of the last four years. While he did have 26 steals last year, it’s important to note that those came in a career-high 155 games played. In 2014 and 2015 when he finished with 28 steals each season, he played in 133 and 140 games, respectively. Cain also doesn’t provide much in the way of home runs, hitting no more than 16 home runs in any season of his career.

Like many of the big name free agents, the market for Cain has been slow to develop. Regardless of where he signs, he really doesn’t have a high upside in any category outside of batting average. As a result, his ceiling is likely finishing just inside the top-20 outfielders in fantasy, with his floor being in the 25-30 range as long as he stays healthy.

NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Lineup Picks for 10/20/17

NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Lineup Picks for 10/20/17


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Point Guard

Eric Bledsoe
FD $7,500 DK $7,400

Bledsoe saw just 29 minutes in the opening contest, in what was a blowout at halftime against the Blazers. He has always been a guy that plays big minutes and I think it’s fair to expect around 35 on a daily basis. This style of game fits into Bledsoe’s hands perfectly, as the Lakers love to run and push the ball up the court. We didn’t see it much last night, but some of that can be attributed to PatBev giving them a nightmare. This game currently sits at a 220 total with the Suns favored by just 3, so it’ll be high scoring and close. Exactly what you’re looking for out of a game stack. The price is fair and he’s pretty safe, considering he fills up the box in every which way. He thrives in the open floor and should have no problem getting there often against a Lakers team that ranked 3rd worst in 2016 against transition baskets. Bledsoe isn’t a lock, but he’s as close as you’ll get at the position.

D’Angelo Russell
FD $8,000 DK $7,300

Jeremy Lin has already been ruled out for the year. Thoughts go out to him, but at least we got it over quickly. It’s surely a lot less stressful than him being questionable EVERY DAY for the entire season. like we dealt with for much with for much of 2016. With Lin gone at PG, D’Angelo Russell will slide over and let Caris LeVert and Sean Kilpatrick handle the 2. Russell gave us a taste of what to expect from him in game 1, shooting 22 times and putting up 42 fantasy points against some quality defenders in Indy. I know both of these guys are a bit expensive, but they are both in spots where the ceiling and floor is just too high for the respective price. Russell could very well be a $9K player very soon. It sounds crazy, but it’ll happen if he’s over 20 shots on a nightly basis. He did it just 6 times in 2016. The Magic play fast and don’t care too much about defense. Russell is a prime option for all formats.

Shooting Guard

Jaylen Brown
FD $6,200 DK $5,500

Until the price goes way up or the Celtics are facing a defensive juggernaut, Jaylen Brown will remain a safe cash game play. He’s the number 2 option behind Kyrie and has shot 34 times over the first 2 contests. The Celtics now see the 76ers, who will be one of the teams we target a lot this year. With the addition of Fultz and Simmons, they should want to run as much as possible. Brown derives a lot of his value from being able to get into the open court and make things happen. That shouldn’t be an issue here, as neither TLC or J.J. Redick have the speed or athleticism to stick with Jaylen. It may be tough to the pay the $6K tag for a guy who was just at $4k, but he’s worth close to 7 or 8. Expect him to once again see 30+ minutes against a lackluster defense that is fine running.

Andrew Wiggins
FD $6,800 DK $6,300

We still don’t really know how Jimmy Butler will cut into Wiggins and Towns, but I think it’s safe to assume that it won’t be much. Butler is a superstar, but he doesn’t need the ball in his hands a ton. He posted a 25% usage last season in Chicago and will likely end up with a similar one here. You also add in the fact that all these starters will see close to 40 minutes on most nights, and the safety is there. People generally see the “Utah” under the opponent and completely ignore. While they are a good team defense, they have Rodney Hood and Donovan Mitchell at the 2. Both of which are inexperienced and not known, at all, for their defense. Ignles will be on Butler, which could funnel some more production towards Wiggins on the perimeter. He’s not as safe as Jaylen is Point per $, but he’s close. He will also be just 5 or 10% owned, at most.

Small Forward

Harrison Barnes
FD $6,300 DK $5,700

We’ve been looking at a few of the more expensive options at PG and SG, so let’s look for a way to save here at SF. Harrison Barnes is the leader of the Mavs on offense and he’s going to be one of the more consistent SF’s we can lean on at such a solid price. He can handle 35+ minutes every night and had no problem shooting close to 20 times a game in 2016. The Kings have a gaping hole at SF with Rudy Gay out, so they’ll look to Justin Jackson and Buddy Hield to deal with Barnes on defense. Barnes doesn’t have the upside to put up 50 fantasy points, but you can lock him in there for 25 with the upside for 45. At this price, you can’t ask for more.

Evan Fournier
FD $5,600 DK $5,400

Evan Fournier left a bad taste in a lot of people’s mouth after last season, including mine. It seemed like countless times that I rostered him and he just goofed around for 300 minutes and ended with nothing worthy of note. That didn’t look to be the guy I was watching the other night. While it can be tough to base decisions on things like the eye test, it’s really not with a guy like Fournier. He looked like he wanted to be there and was initiating a lot of the effective offense. He now heads up with the fast-paced Nets, who haven’t played defense in 2 years. This game is sitting at a 223 over/under with the Magic favored by 2. Get some exposure on both sides of the ball. Fournier is cheap enough where you really don’t have to consider him a “pay-up”, but has the upside to give you 50 in a tournament.

Power Forward

Anthony Davis
FD $10,900 DK $10,600

With Draymond Green doubtful as I type this, I’m going to assume he is out. Even if he is in, you can take all of what I’m about to say and just minimize it a little bit. Davis is unstoppable. Cousins is unstoppable. When you try to stop them with whatever combo of Zaza, Javale, David West and Jordan Bell, things may get ugly. With that being said, the same can be said for the Pelicans in regard to Kevin Durant/Klay Thompson. I think this one just turns into an absolutely shootout and stacking the entire game is a terrific idea. If it blows out, none of them make value. If it stays close, I think it does because of the back-and-forth nature. We aren’t going to see either of these teams grind out defense here. Davis saw 40 minutes last game, which is a terrific sign for a guy that is often on a minutes limit. If he’s seeing those types of minutes this early, it’s fair to assume we’re playing with a fully healthy Anthony Davis. A fully healthy Anthony Davis is something you won’t come across often, and when you do, you take advantage. Personally, you will catch me with 100% Anthony Davis if Draymond is out. I’d prefer to watch him abuse the backups and for me to benefit instead of grimace every time he slams it over anyone’s head in hopes I won’t be passed by the crowd. AD might end up being popular, which is when I’ll pivot over to Cousins. All in all, this game is a gold mine and you should get exposure from both sides.

Jae Crowder
FD $5,300 DK $4,700

This is just a simple case of a guy being a bit mispriced to start the season. It’s not too bad, but Crowder will put up numbers in this offense if he’s going to play 30+ minutes. He’s a lot better of an offensive player than many of the guys who have played the same role with LeBron in the near past. He will get as many open 3’s in the corner as he could ever want and could have some huge games if he gets hot. He’s also good at penetrating and scooping up peripherals on defense, which can’t be said for the usual LeBron corner guy. It’s also comforting to know Crowder will be out there when it matters. He is a good defender and helps make up for the atrocious Rose and Love (If you want to laugh, watch these 2 try to defend a PNR). I feel like they should have a coach out there grabbing their hips and throwing them into the proper defensive position. It’s just brutal. Getting back on topic, Crowder is going to be an integral part of this offense from the get and isn’t priced like it just yet. The Bucks play small and he’ll have no problem getting an excess of minutes at the 4 and maybe a few at the 5 when Thon Maker is out there. He isn’t going to go crazy but penciling in 25 at this price is a blessing in cash games.

Center

Nikola Vucevic
FD $8,400 DK $7,600

There are a lot of different ways you can go at center if you’re paying up, so take your choice. We’ll run with Nikola Vucevic here, who sees and up-paced affair with the Brooklyn Nets. He got dismantled by Hassan Whiteside in the first game, but did answer back with a solid 19-13-2-2 line. TheNets lost Brook Lopez in the offseason and will turn to Timofey Mozgov at center. I don’t know how they plan on making that work, but they are the Nets, so maybe they just don’t care. Bucevic will embarrass Mozgov for however many minutes the Nets can lie to themselves for. Trevor Booker and Rondae Hollies-Jefferson man the 4 and are way too undersized to mess with Vuc. To me, it looks like a severe match-up problem. Unless the Nets have a focus on taking away Vucevic from the start (no shot), he should have a big game. His price is still fair and will likely see a small bump if he continues seeing heavy minutes. Aaron Gordon is also questionable now, so Vuc could be leaned on even more down low than already expected.

Marcin Gortat
FD $6,100 DK $5,600

Now for what may be the most cut and dry option of them all, let’s take a look at Marcin Gortat facing off with the monster that is Andre Drummond. Gortat will need to be out there to match the size of Drummond, which Ian Mahinmi just can’t offer. Gortat is locked into a double-double and you can safely project him for 34+ minutes. For years now, Gortat has been getting a ton of minutes to start the year until eventually getting a nagging injury that keeps them down. Drummond is a huge center, but his defense is nothing to be worried about. The Pistons were 3rd worst against centers in 2016 and I can’t see a guy with Gortat’s skill set just flopping. Wall leans on Gortat to space the floor and he does it perfectly, knowing exactly how Wall likes to play. Gortat is the safest option at center for the price and I’ll have a ton of exposure in cash games.






NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Lineup Picks for 10/19/17

NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Lineup Picks for 10/19/17


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Point Guard

Russell Westbrook
FD $11,800 – DK $11,000

Look, if you’re playing on this slate, it’s going to take some real guts to fade Russell Westbrook. No matter how you slice it, he’s the top raw option at any position in any format. While he may seem expensive, if you played NBA DFS last year, you know this is nothing. He did lose Victor Oladipo and Enes Kanter, but gained 2 great players in Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. They may warrant a few more shots than the guys did last year, but this team belongs to Westbrook and the ball will be in his hands as much as he wants. This match-up with the Knicks couldn’t be better. Ramon Sessions will cover him. Yes, let that sink in. Of course, the Knicks will try to remedy that with Justin Holiday and double-teams, but we all know by now that it doesn’t work. Westbrook is a guy I’ll have 100% exposure to, bar none.

Jerian Grant
FD $6,600 – DK $5,300

Point guard is typically a position where you have to pick between 5 or 6 elite options. That’s just not the case tonight. Kyle Lowry is the 2nd safest guy, but I’m trying to include some cheaper options and I’m a bigger fan of DeRozan, who we’ll get to. The Bulls are an ultimate cluster$%%@ right now and they will need more than a few guys to step up and fill the hole that Mirotic and Portis will leave. Grant won’t see any impact minutes-wise, but he’ll be looked at to lead this young offense. He showed plenty of times last year that he was able, going over 30 FD points 7 times in his last 25 games. Kyle Lowry is known as a good defender, but he’s really not. The Raptors ranked 23rd against point guards in 2016 and while Grant is far from a typical PG, his size should give Lowry some issues. I’m not expecting a huge game out of Grant, but he can fill the stat sheet in plenty of ways and will be in there for over 30 minutes against an average defensive team.

Shooting Guard

DeMar DeRozan
FD $8,800 – DK $8,300

With just 3 games on the slate, you probably want to have either Kyle Lowry or DeMar DeRozan. Chances are at least one of them will have a superb game against the inept opponent. Before going any further, go ahead and look at the Bulls projected lineup. It is like a spring training lineup in baseball or something. I’m not sure I can remember seeing anything as bad in recent past in any sport. Justin Holiday will cover DeRozan and he’s just too small, as well as not good enough. It’s no offense to Holiday, who’s young with a ton of potential, but DeMar DeRozan is a premier NBA scorer. He can put up 40 points on any given night and will probably put up 50 a time or two before the season concludes. There aren’t too many +EV ways to pay up tonight, so you probably want some exposure to the Toronto DD.

Jordan Clarkson
FD $4,700 – DK $4,300

You have a lot of different ways to go at SG, but you’ll have to pay down in a couple spots here and Jordan Clarkson might be my favorite way to do it. With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope suspended, he will be in line to play at least 30 minutes, with some at the 1 and some at the 2. Julius Randle is also questionable, so he could end up seeing a huge uptick in usage as well. Clarkson is an extremely good guard who is underpriced on both sites. He gets the ball in his hands when on the court and if his floaters are hitting, value will come in the 1st half. The Clippers will toss Austin Rivers and Lou Williams at Jordan Clarkson, so he won’t have a hard time getting to the paint. Clarkson is nowhere near a must, but I don’t see the reasoning behind his price.

Small Forward

Paul George
FD $8,600 – DK $6,100

We have no real idea how Paul George will mesh with Russell Westbrook and the Thunder, but I’m willing to take a guess. If you’ve been watching Paul George since he came into the league, you should know that he won’t be causing any problems. There were plenty of times in Indy when a guy like Jeff Teague, Roy Hibbert, or Lance Stephenson would get hot and George would have no problem taking a backseat. He would then hop back into the driver’s seat the next night and put up 30 real-life points. In this Thunder system, I suspect he turns into quite Robin to Westbrook’s Batman. His price is way too low on DraftKings and he’s a near must in cash games. On FanDuel, I love him, but it’s not a must by any means.

Paul Zipser
FD $4,800 – DK $4,200

Hey, calm down. I know Paul Zipser isn’t a guy you wanted to roster until the end of the year when we’re scratching and clawing for value. But I don’t think this is like most years. We usually don’t have a teammate breaking another one’s face and sending him to the hospital with facial fractures. These unforeseen circumstances have led to Nikola Mirotic being out for 6 weeks and Portis suspended for 8 games. It leaves a bunch of minutes for not too many guys. Paul Zipser is locked into 36+ minutes and it’s the reason he’s in play. He will sit in the corner for most of the game, occasionally takin charge and driving to the hoop for a goofy layup. With minutes, come production, and that’s the hope here with Zipser at his depressed price tag.

Power Forward

Lauri Markkanen
FD $6,500 DK $5,600

We’ll stay here with the mess that is the entire Bulls organization. With Mirotic and Portis out, we have RoLo, Felicio, and Markkanen at the 4 and 5. Felicio physically can’t play more than 20-24 minutes, so that leaves about 75 for Lopez and Markkanen (maybe a few from Zipser). Markkanen is technically a rookie, but he’s been playing pro ball in Europe for 6 years and should be able to transition a bit better than guys coming from college. Markkanen is a very good basketball player and he can fill the stat sheet in many different ways. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him well over $8,000 on both sites come next month. This match-up with the Raptors isn’t great, but like I’ve said, minutes = production.

Blake Griffin
FD $9,500 DK $9,600

This year is going to be very telling for the outlook and legacy of Blake Griffin. The last time he was without Chris Paul for an extended period of time, he was consistently one of the top 5 NBA players on a nightly basis. His production was tempered with CP3 back, but that’s not the case anymore. This offense will run through Griffin and he will be given the opportunity to do as much damage as possible. Expect plenty of face-up and PnR opportunities for Griffin from the first possession on. He will also have some games where he distributes and sees close to 10 assists, which could very well come against the Lakers. All in all, I think Griffin has the opportunity to have a huge night and I’ll be doing my best to get him in all my contests. With the current value, I have been able to fit both Westbrook and Griffin without any worries.

Center

Brook Lopez
FD $7,400 DK $6,500

For me, it’s a toss-up between Brook Lopez and DeAndre Jordan for the top high-priced center. They both couldn’t care less about defense, but produce fantasy points in very different ways. Jordan will rely on rebounding and putbacks, while Lopez will get the ball with 15 seconds left on the shot clock and go to work, both post-up and face-up. I suspect Jordan may have some trouble covering Lopez and it could put him into some foul trouble. I doubt Lopez gets into foul trouble as he would much rather just back up. Whichever way you decide to go is fine, but Lopez is probably a bit riskier with a higher ceiling. If you don’t have Griffin and are looking for safety, play Jordan.

Steven Adams
FD $6,300 FD $5,700

If you don’t want to pay up for either Lopez or Jordan, Steven Adams is a quality pivot at $2k cheaper. The Thunder face off with the Knicks, who offer up Enes Kanter and Willy Hernangomez at the 5. If you pay attention to the NBA, you know they are both embarrassingly bad at defense. I expect we will be targeting centers against the Knicks all season long. Adams isn’t a scorer, but he can score with his back to the basket when guys like Westbrook and George are pulling all of the attention away from the paint. Adams has a double-double before the game starts and it just depends on whether the game stays close enough for him to play 35 minutes.