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*Chris Durell*

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 12

For a limited time use code “NLA5017” to receive the rest of the NFL season for 50% off!

Tier 1

We start off in the first tier with two running backs facing each other this weekend. Kareem Hunt sits second in the league in rushing yards(873) but has been in a downward spiral lately with five straight games without a 100+ yard game or a touchdown. He gets another elite matchup this week facing a Bills team that has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game(119.9), rank 31st in DVOA vs. the rush, and 31st in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. On the other side of the ball, we have LeSean McCoy who sits eighth in league rushing yards(709) but has been inconsistent with four games under 50 yards and three games over 100 yards. The good news is he gets a terrific matchup vs. the Chiefs who have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game(129.2) and rank 32nd in DVOA vs. the rush. The one thing that scares me is that they rank ninth when looking at Draftkings points per game allowed to running backs and it has to do with their ability to limit the yards through the air. They have allowed a league-low 235 yards total and zero touchdowns.

Looking at the wide receivers, there are some glaring differences which should make the decision a bit easier this week. Julio Jones slightly leads the way in receiving yards(786 to 743) but has had a ton of trouble scoring with just one touchdown on the season. His injuries have also been a problem which have limited him to an average of 72% of the snaps compared to Green’s 87% on the season. Touchdowns are what pay the bills in fantasy and Green has scored one in two straight and six of his last eight games. The only issue is the individual matchup as Green will likely see a ton of Jason McCourty who is PFF’s 3rd ranked cornerback this season.

Top Targets in this Tier – Kareem Hunt, Julio Jones

Tier 2

Travis Kelce leads the second tier as he averages 17.5 DraftKings points for the season. He has collected seven or more receptions in three straight weeks, picked up 100+ yards in two of his last three games(four times this season), and has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games as well. The matchup gets a little tougher this week as the Bills rank 13th in DVOA vs. the pass and 15th in DraftKings points per game allowed to the tight end as they have limited them to just two touchdowns on the season. He is clearly Alex Smith’s top target in the passing game but I have a strong feeling the Chiefs will be feeding Kareem Hunt this week. For Tevin Coleman, it will come down to the status of Devonta Freeman who is still in the concussion protocol as of Tuesday. Coleman has filled in nicely and has now scored in three straight weeks. The Falcons are double-digit favorites vs. the Bucs so if Freeman is out, look for another high volume game from Coleman.

When it comes to the wide receivers, we get a couple target monsters in Jarvis Landry(10.8 per game) and Mike Evans(9.3 per game) who are both playing on the road. Of the two, it is Evans who gets the much tougher matchup vs. the Falcons secondary that has limited teams to 200.8 yards per game through the air(7th overall) and the sixth-fewest DraftKings points per game. Although he managed five catches for 92 yards last week with Ryan Fitzpatrick, it is still a downgrade from Jameis Winston in an already tough matchup. For Landry, the game script is right up his alley as the Dolphins are huge 17 point dogs which will force Jay Cutler to throw it a ton and although they have been better lately, the Pats still rank 29th in DVOA vs. the pass and 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts.

Top Targets in this Tier – Tevin Coleman, Jarvis Landry

Tier 3

The biggest decision in this tier will be between the two Patriots as they get an elite matchup vs. the Dolphins who rank 31st in DVOA vs. the pass. Cooks will likely be the higher owned of the two, coming off a monster game where he caught six of nine targets for 149 yards and a touchdown, but gets the tougher matchup as Miami ranks 16th overall in DraftKings points per game to wideouts. I don’t think he is a fade, by any means, but I prefer Gronk as the Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points per game to wideouts and like I said, should be lower owned. T.Y. Hilton is a fade at this point as he has not only been inconsistent but his quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, is still in the concussion protocol.  Christian McCaffrey is a great option this week as he has seen an increased role in the running game, especially in the red zone, and comes in with rushing touchdowns in back to back weeks. He also leads all running backs with an average of 7.9 targets per week which would also put him 17th when adding in wide receivers. This is a perfect scenario for DraftKings which is full PPR.

Top Targets in this Tier – Rob Gronkowski, Christian McCaffrey

Tier 4

First of all, I think we can avoid Zach Ertz this week after he made his return from a hamstring injury last week but appeared to not be a part of the game plan as he was targeted just five times, catching two of them for eight yards. It also doesn’t help his cause facing a Bears team that ranks ninth overall in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position giving up two touchdowns all season. His teammate Jay Ajayi doesn’t have much going for him either as the Bears rank 16th in DK points per game allowed to running backs and despite breaking off two long runs over his last two games has only seen 15 total carries since joining the Eagles. The issue is the team using all four running backs despite Ajayi being the most talented. The entire Chiefs offense let us down last week but on a positive note, Tyreke Hill caught all seven of his targets for 68 yards and gets a plus matchup vs. the Bills who have allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game(246.9) and rank 19th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. Greg Olsen is set to return this week for the Panthers which could possibly cut into Devin Funchess’ targets but with Curtis Samuel out for the season, I am not too concerned at this point. He is also coming off his best game of the season where he recorded five receptions for a season-high 92 yards and his second multi-touchdown game. He faces a Jets team that ranks mid-pack when looking at passing yards allowed per game(229) but ranks 22nd in DVOA vs. the pass and 21st in DraftKings points allowed to wideouts.

Top Targets in this Tier – Devin Funchess, Tyreke Hill

Tier 5

The first tier of quarterbacks gives us four options with excellent matchups against teams who both rank outside the Top 20 in DVOA vs. the pass and DraftKings points allowed to the position. Matt Ryan and the Falcons are 10-point favorites at home to the Bucs who have allowed the second most passing yards per game(276.3) so if you are playing Julio in Tier 1, I think it makes sense to go with Matt Ryan here. I mentioned the tough matchup for A.J. Green in the first tier but to be a bit contrarian in your lineup you can pair him with Andy Dalton who is likely the lowest owned quarterback in this tier. Alex Smith leads all quarterbacks in this tier with an average of 21 DK points per game but is on an ugly stretch where he is averaging just 231.7 yards per game over his last three games and thrown for just three touchdowns. It also hurts Smith a bit considering Kareem Hunt and the run game get an elite matchup vs. the Bills 31st ranked rush defense. While Cam Newton didn’t reach the 300-yard passing mark in his last game before the Bye Week, he did have a monster game with four passing touchdowns and also rushed five times for 95 yards totaling 35.66 DraftKings points. The total falls below 40 this week which is a bit scary but the Jets have been much better vs. the run this season ranking 11th in DK points allowed to running backs while ranking outside the Top 20 in DK allowed to quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends. Finally, we get Marcus Mariota who topped 20 DraftKings points for the first time last game with 306 yards passing with one touchdown and added a rushing touchdown as well. The Colts have been terrible against the pass this season allowing the third-most yards per game(274.5) but Mariota just hasn’t shown us the upside needed to win a tournament.

Top Targets in this Tier – Matt Ryan, Cam Newton

Tier 6

I will start with the running backs as one is leading the tier in fantasy points per game and the other is at the bottom. With his second 100-yard game in three weeks and fourth on the season, Jordan Howard now sits third in the league with 841 rush yards. The issue this week is the matchup as the Bears go on the road to face the 9-1 Eagles who have limited teams to a league-best 71 yards rushing per game and have allowed the third-fewest DraftKings points per game to running backs. As for DeMarco Murray, he has been leading the way in the timeshare with Derrick Henry but has received less than 15 carries in three straight games while not topping 50 yards once. The good news for Murray is that he gets a plus matchup vs. the Colts who rank 25th in DraftKings points per game to running backs.

Looking at the wideouts in this tier, I will start with the injury to Danny Amendola. He caught eight of his nine targets last week in Mexico but was limited in the second half and was also limited in practice all week leading up to this game. I will be fading him this week as he is nothing more than the third or fourth option in the pass game with the likes of Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks, and the running backs in the mix. Alshon Jeffery has been coming on strong lately and has scored a touchdown in three straight games(four total) topping 15 DraftKings points in each. With Zach Ertz still possibly dealing with an injury, I think Jeffery can still hit value for us despite the tougher matchup vs. the Bears who have allowed the 12th fewest passing yards per game(213) and also rank 12th in DraftKings points per game to wideouts. They just have not faced a passing attack quite like the Eagles present with Carson Wentz. The other matchup I am targeting in this tier is Rishard Matthews, despite my lack of enthusiasm for Marcus Mariota’s ceiling. Matthews leads the Titans wideouts in targets this season and coming off a season where he led the team with nine touchdowns, he has heated up with one in two of his last three games and is coming off his best game of the season with 113 receiving yards.

Top Targets in this Tier – Alshon Jeffery, Rishard Matthews

Tier 7

Starting with some injury news, Devonta Freeman was once again absent from Falcons practice on Wednesday as he is still dealing with a concussion. Even if he gets in a limited practice near the end of the week and plays, I will be fading him and playing Tevin Coleman who I mentioned above.

Then we have two tight ends facing each other this week. Both defenses rank inside the Top 20 in DK points per game allowed to the position and with Jack Doyle possibly without his quarterback this week, I will be fading him. If you are planning on choosing one of these two I would suggest Delanie Walker. Despite not scoring a receiving touchdown in 2017, he has been targeted on the regular with nine or more in three of his last four games and has been a safe option with double-digit DK points in all four of those games.

For the wideouts, we get three secondary options on their respective teams. Kenny Still leads the way in this tier averaging 13.2 DK points per game but is the third option on the Dolphins behind Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker. He is definitely a boom or bust deep threat that has shown us the upside and is coming off his biggest game of the year where he caught seven of eight targets, including a 45-yard and 61-yard catch, for 180 yards and a touchdown. Mohamed Sanu has caught a touchdown in three of his last four games but isn’t getting the volume in the Falcons passing game with just three receptions in three straight games. Against a weak Bucs passing defense that could go up a little bit so if you are using Matt Ryan in Tier 5, Sanu makes a nice stacking option with touchdown upside.

Top Targets in this Tier – Mohamed Sanu, Delanie Walker

Tier 8

Although Duke Johnson is showing a questionable tag at the moment, he was removed from the Browns injury report and is good to go on Sunday. He continues to get out-carried by Isaiah Crowell but is a big factor in the passing game as he has picked up five or more targets in all but one game this season which is perfect for DraftKings and its full PPR point system. DeSean Jackson has been his deep-threat self this season with just one catch over 40 yards and combine that with the tough matchup vs. the Falcons and he is a full fade for me this week. Corey Coleman made his return to the Browns offense last week and made an immediate impact catching six of a team-high 11 targets for 80 yards. The Bengals have been tough on wideouts all year ranking fourth in DK points per game allowed but I still like him as a contrarian option as Duke Johnson should be the highest-owned option in this tier. Neither of the tight ends present a ton of upside but if you are choosing one, I prefer Austin Sefarian-Jenkins who has been a nice redzone target for the Jets as he has caught four of his six inside the 20-yard line for all three of his touchdowns. It is also noteworthy that Charles Clay may still be dealing with a knee injury as he has been limited at practice again this week and has been quiet in his two games since returning to the lineup. It doesn’t help that the Bills keep flip flopping with their quarterbacks.

Top Target in this Tier – Corey Coleman, Duke Johnson, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!

*Chris Durell*

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Week 10

For a limited time use code “NLA5017” to receive the rest of the NFL season for 50% off!

Tier 1

Very interesting opening tier where DraftKings decided to put Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown together. Not only is it very close as they are both averaging 21 DraftKings points per game but the Steelers are also a Top 10 rushing team and passing team when looking at the DVOA ranks and the Colts are at the bottom of the league in both passing and rushing defense. With the Steelers sitting as double-digit favorites(-10.5), I tend to lean on Bell who should see some extra volume in the second half if the Steelers can get the early lead. When it comes to the other two running backs in this tier, they are very comparable when looking at the matchups. Both the Chargers and Saints have been Top 10 vs. the pass this season(DVOA) and sit in the upper half of the league when looking at DraftKings points allowed to wideouts and tight ends but both sit outside the Top when looking at rushing defense. I lean Fournette here as Jacksonville is a four-point home favorite and have an elite defense that should be able to shut down the Chargers. Fournette is also a big bounce back candidate that should be revved up after being benched for violating team rules. It also helps that the Jags heavily rely on him for most of their offense.

Top Targets in this Tier – Le’veon Bell, Leonard Fournette

Tier 2

Another interesting decision to make in the second tier as both Saints running backs are in play. Mark Ingram out snapped Kamara last week 36-25 but it was Kamara having the better fantasy day as he rushed 10 times for 68 yards and a touchdown and also caught six of his seven targets for 84 yards and a touchdown for 32.2 DraftKings points. The Saints now own the 3rd best rushing offense(DVOA) and get another decent matchup this week as -2.5 favorites vs. the Bills who rank 17th in DVOA vs. the rush and 16th in DraftKings points allowed to the running back. With the Bills being even better against the pass, I lean Ingram who should once again see more snaps and likely another 15+ carries.  Melvin Gordon is coming off a bye week after blowing up against the Patriots in Week 8 as he rushed for 132 on just 14 carries thanks to an explosive 87-yard touchdown run. The Jags rush defense has also improved lately as the held the Bengals to just 30 yards from the running back and the week before held the Colts to just 65 yards(running backs). Gordon could very well be the lowest owned player in this tier. The last option we have is wide receiver turned UFC fighter, A.J. Green. All jokes aside, Green is an elite wideout who ranks 8th in receiving yards(578) and has also scored four touchdowns. He gets an elite matchup this week as the Titans have been rock solid against the run but struggled against the passing game as they rank 22nd in DVOA vs. the pass and 20th in DraftKings points allowed to wide receivers.

Top Targets in this Tier – A.J. Green, Mark Ingram

Tier 3

First things first, Mike Evans has been suspended after his altercation with Marshon Lattimore last week and the appeal was denied confirming he will not play this weekend. Michael Thomas, after 11 targets last week, continues to be the favorite option for Drew Brees but he hasn’t scored in for straight games and has just two touchdowns on the season which limits the overall upside. He also gets a tougher matchup this week vs. the Bills who rank 14th in DVOA vs. the pass and 16th in DraftKings points allowed to wideouts. Golden Tate of the Lions has split targets with Marvin Jones this season but like Thomas is a more of a cash game, high-floor type player with just two touchdowns on the season. The matchup is also a bit tricky to figure out as the Browns rank 28th in DVOA vs. the pass but rank 8th overall in Draftkings points allowed to wideouts. I tend to lean towards them being a good defense vs. the pass as Jason McCourty ranks 2nd overall and Briean Boddy-Calhoun ranks 13th overall in PFF’s cornerback rankings. When analyzing the running backs in this tier, they both have somewhat favorable game scripts as both the Vikings and Bears are favorites in their respective matchups. I tend to lean towards Jordan Howard who gets a matchup vs. the Packers who rank 25th in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs while McKinnon faces a Redskins team that ranks 15th in that category.  The other key is that Howard is seeing a 62% snap count share on the season while McKinnon is seeing just 43% of the snaps.

Top Targets in this Tier – Jordan Howard, Golden Tate

Tier 4

In the first quarterback tier, I have a feeling that Matt Stafford and Ben Roethlisberger will be the chalky options as both teams are currently sitting as double-digit favorites and projected for the most points on the slate. Stafford is coming off an impressive Monday Night Football win in Green Bay where he completed 26 of 33 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns. After not throwing for 300+ yards in his first five games of the season, he has now down so in three straight putting up 20+ DraftKings points in each. With the Lions lack of a running game(79.9 yards per game) and the Browns ranking 28th in DVOA vs. the pass, Stafford could be in for another big week. Roethlisberger also gets a top matchup this week vs. a Colts team that has allowed the second most yards per game through the air(279.7) and ranks 27th in DraftKings points per game allowed to the quarterback. In the Bills/Saints game, I lean Drew Brees as the Saints rank 4th in passing yards per game(269.8) while the Bills rank 30th(186.9). The other key factor in play is that the Saints much-improved defense ranks 12th in passing yards per game allowed(210.5) and 4th overall when looking at DVOA vs. the pass. Finally, one of the most surprising quarterbacks of the season has been Josh McCown who sits second in completion percentage(70.4%) and 12th in passing yards(1,980) despite the Jets ranking 24t in DVOA passing. He also gets a plus matchup this week facing a Bucs team that ranks 31st in DVOA vs. the pass and 27th in DraftKings points allowed to the quarterback position.

Top Targets in this Tier – Matt Stafford, Josh McCown

Tier 5

Tier 5 presents some very tough decisions as all four quarterbacks playing at home get tough matchups vs. teams that rank inside the Top 10 in DraftKings points allowed to the quarterback position and 17th or better when looking at DVOA vs. the pass. Of those four, Kirk Cousins leads the way averaging 19.7 DraftKings points per game but faces a Vikings team coming off a bye week and allowing the seventh-fewest passing yards per game this season(200.8). I won’t be touching Blake Bortles this week who is averaging just 207 yards per game but it has more to do with Leonard Forunette who will be back in the mix and likely to see a large workload after a week off “to rest”. Jacoby Brissett is another quarterback I will be avoiding this week facing a stout Steelers pass defense that has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game(180) and third-fewest DraftKings points per game to the position. The two options at the top of my list are Marcus Mariota who is coming off a two-touchdown performance but more importantly, is back using his legs with 14 rushing attempts over the past two weeks. At the top of my list in this tier is on the other side of the ball where Andy Dalton gets the only matchup of the five QB’s against a defense ranked outside the Top 20 in DVOA vs. the pass. Hopefully, his top target in A.J. Green can remain on the field for the entire game and if he does I think Dalton has a shot at leading this tier in fantasy points this week.

Top Targets in this Tier – Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota

Tier 6

Aaron Jones is the only running back in the sixth tier and very well could be the lowest owned coming off a terrible week where he rushed for just 12 yards. The big risk with Jones is the fact he will be working in a committee with Ty Montgomery. Next up, we got both Vikings starting receivers and it really comes down to the rest of your lineup construction. If you took some risks in other tiers, I would suggest going with Thielen who has been very consistent this season with 9.4 targets per week and has topped 90 yards in four of his eight games. If it’s upside you’re after, take a shot with Diggs who has topped 90 yards three times(173 in week 3) and has two multi-touchdown games. The biggest risk with the Vikings wideouts is the matchup as they travel to Washington to face a Josh Norman and the Redskins who rank 11th in DVOA vs. the pass and have allowed the fifth-fewest DraftKings points per game. I think a lot of people will be chasing the points with T.Y. Hilton this week after his explosive performance in Week 9 where he tallied 175 yards on just five catches and scored twice. The problem this week is that the matchup is much tougher against the Steelers who rank 5th in DVOA vs. the pass and have allowed the second-fewest DraftKings points per game to wideouts. Speaking of tough matchups, Marvin Jones Jr. also gets a tough matchup as he is likely to see shadow coverage from Jason McCourty who ranks second overall on PFF’s cornerback rankings this season. Then we have JuJu Smith-Schuster who will be working out of the slot for the Steelers and gets a terrific matchup vs. the Colts who have allowed the second most passing yards per game(279.7), rank 25th in DVOA vs. the pass, and have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to wideouts. He is also likely to see coverage from Pierre Desir who ranks 102nd of 115 eligible cornerbacks on the PFF rankings.

Top Targets in this Tier – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adam Thielen

Tier 7

In the seventh tier, I will start with a couple players I will be avoiding and it starts with Jordy Nelson who has been irrelevant since losing his starting quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, to injury in Week 6. The next fade for me is DeSean Jackson of the Bucs who has had a tough time since changing teams in 2017 with just 422 yards receiving and has only broke 50 yards once in his last four games. Adding to that is the fact that he also lost his starting quarterback, Jameis Winston, who will be sitting out a couple weeks with multiple injuries. I am shocked to be saying this but one of the most consistent options in this tier has been Tedd Ginn Jr. as he has broke 50 yards in four straight games scoring two touchdowns and even breaking 100 yards in that time. When teams have put emphasis on shutting down Michael Thomas, he has been a top target for Drew Brees alongside rookie running back Alvin Kamara. While the Bills have some very talented corners, they rank 26th in passing yards allowed(250.3) this season. That leaves Chris Thompson who operates as the Redskins passing down running back and has been very successful this season ranking seventh in targets per game(5.8) among running backs and has recorded double-digit fantasy points in six of his eight games. Then we have one of the biggest surprises of the season at any position with Robby Anderson who leads the Jets with 6.3 targets per game and has exceeded 75 yards three times and comes in red-hot scoring a touchdown in three straight games. I have a good feeling he can keep that streak going as he gets an elite matchup vs. the Bucs who rank 31st in DVOA vs. the pass and have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to wideouts.

Top Targets in this Tier – Robby Anderson, Chris Thompson

Tier 8

To start with, we have some injuries to monitor as Sunday approaches. After his best game of the season and out-snapping Bilal Powell in three straight weeks, Matt Forte missed practice on Wednesday with swelling in his surgically-repaired knee. Delanie Walker also missed practice on Wednesday with an injured ankle but his status is a little better as he played through the injury last week and led the team in receiving yards. The questionable tag might keep people off him this week presenting some low ownership in this tier with big upside as Marcus Mariota’s favorite target. I will be avoiding Keenan Allen this week who not only has disappointed with just one score this year but also gets a terrible matchup vs. the Jags who lead the league in passing yards allowed per game(156.4), DVOA vs. the pass, and DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. The Kelvin Benjamin situation is another one I will be fading due to it being his first game with a new offense after coming over in a trade at the deadline and it doesn’t help he gets a tough matchup vs. a much-improved Saints defense that ranks 4th in DVOA vs. the pass. I need to see how he fits in before restoring him this season. Since Brett Hundley has taken over as the Packers quarterback, it has been Devante Adams leading the team with 25 targets, 14 receptions and 119 yards with one touchdown. The Packers get a tough matchup but Adams is likely to lead the team once again and it is a near must-win situation for the team to keep their playoff hopes alive. I mentioned above how I will be fading Blake Bortles of the Jags as 1. he has no upside and 2. they rely heavily on Leonard Fournette. This is a tough tier and I do feel we can turn to Marqise Lee who has received double-digit targets in two of his last three weeks and now leads the team with 7.3 per game on the season. He has also topped 75 or more yards in three straight games and scored his first touchdown last week vs. the Bengals. We will also have to monitor his status at practice on Thursday and Friday as he wasn’t present on Wednesday but according to Jags beat writers, hasn’t practiced since mid-October but has not missed a game.

Top Target in this Tier – Devante Adams, Marqise Lee

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!