Our last deep dive of Week 2 in the NFL brings us to tight ends and defenses/specials teams. While not the sexiest of positions, they can be the difference between just coming in the money and taking home one of the larger prizes.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 – TE & DEF/ST
For our last positional breakdown of the Week 1 DFS slate, we’ll examine both some tight ends and defenses/special teams to target for your lineup.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 – TE/DEF/ST
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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The NFL season is finally here! Along with it comes another exciting year of daily fantasy football. We’ll be doing things a little differently as we look to help you fatten your wallet. We’ll be churning out four articles a week, including one each for quarterbacks, runnings backs, wide receivers and a combined piece for tight ends and defenses/special teams.
In each article, we’ll highlight some players to target for cash or GPP contents. We’ll also discuss players to avoid as your craft your lineup. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Rob Gronkowski vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $6,900
Gronkowski was able to stay relatively healthy last year and he put up big numbers as a result. He caught 69 of 105 targets for 1,084 yards and eight touchdowns. He also received 21 red zone targets, second to only Jimmy Graham (27) among tight ends. In the last four seasons that Gronkowski has played at least 14 games, he has at least 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns in each of them.
While he’s always one of Tom Brady’s top targets, Gronkowski will likely be leaned on even more so with Julian Edelman suspended for the first four games of the season. Outside of Chris Hogan, the Patriots are extremely thin at wide receiver. For a Week 1 schedule that has so many viable cheap options at running back and wide receiver, this might be the time to pay up to get Gronkowski into your lineup.
Delanie Walker vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $4,900
Walker is as steady as they come at tight end. He’s logged at least 100 targets, 60 receptions and 800 receiving yards in four consecutive seasons. His three touchdowns last year were a bit of a disappointment, but the struggles of quarterback Marcus Mariota led to some down numbers for most of the Titans pass catchers. Mariota threw just 13 touchdowns the entire season.
The Titans still don’t have a ton of great weapons on offense, but they did bring in Dion Lewis to form a solid duo out of the backfield with Derrick Henry. They also should see some improvement from second-year receiver Corey Davis. That might help take some of the attention away from Walker by opposing defenses. Considering Walker received at least five targets in all but one game last year, he has one of the highest floors at the tight end position.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $4,800
DraftKings = $3,800
This seems like the chalk play of the week. The Bills offense looks simply atrocious outside of LeSean McCoy. Nathan Peterman will be their starting quarterback after he threw one touchdown and five interceptions in two starts last year. They are extremely thin at wide receiver, as well, which doesn’t exactly help Peterman’s cause. The Ravens were excellent at creating turnovers last year with 22 interceptions and 12 fumble recoveries. Don’t overthink this one, play the Ravens.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Jordan Reed vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $4,000
Reed has never played more than 14 games during a season in his career. In four of his five years in the league, he’s played 12 games or fewer. More injuries ruined his 2017 campaign, resulting in him playing just six games. He wasn’t productive when he was on the field, either, averaging 35.2 yards per contest.
The good news is that Reed looks to be healthy heading into Week 1. The Redskins managed his workload throughout training camp and during the preseason, but he’s not listed on their injury report for this game. Although he’ll be playing with a new quarterback in Alex Smith, Reed is one of the best pass-catching options on the Redskins roster. It’s not often that you get the opportunity to roster him at such a reduced price, so this might be an opportunity to pounce on.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins vs. New York Giants
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $3,200
Seferian-Jenkins entered the league with a lot of promise after being selected 38th overall in the 2014 draft by the Buccaneers. Off-the-field issues prevented him from fulfilling his potential with the Buccaneers, ultimately leading him to become a member of the Jets. He played a career-high 13 games for the Jets last year, catching 50 of 74 targets for 357 yards and three touchdowns.
The Jaguars badly needed to add talent at tight end, ultimately leading them to take a chance on Seferian-Jenkins. He gets a great matchup right out of the gate against a Giants defense that allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends last year and looks to be soft in the middle of the field again this season. Seferian-Jenkins is dealing with a core injury right now, but if he’s cleared to play, he has an excellent opportunity to outproduce his price point.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $2,800
The Chiefs certainly have plenty of talent on offense, led by Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. They have turned over the reins at quarterback to Patrick Mahomes, their promising first-round pick from 2017. Mahomes has a great arm and could be in store for a productive NFL career, but he gets a tough assignment Week 1 on the road against a Chargers defense that can create pressure with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. They did lose cornerback Jason Verrett due to a torn Achilles, but they still have an extremely talented secondary. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers create a couple of turnovers in this game.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Evan Engram vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,700
The Giants were decimated by injuries at wide receiver last year, which sometimes left Engram as their best pass-catching option. He had a promising rookie campaign, overall, catching 64 of 115 targets for 772 yards and six touchdowns. The Giants are healthy at wide receiver heading into Week 1 and added talented rookie running back Saquon Barkley to their backfield, so Engram might not see a ton of targets come his way. Add in the fact that he is playing the stingy Jaguars defense and he’s risky at this price.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $3,100
The “Legion of Boom” era is officially a thing of the past in Seattle. Not only did they lose Richard Sherman this offseason, but Sheldon Richardson and Michael Bennett are also gone from their defensive front. They did receive some encouraging news when Earl Thomas ended his holdout Wednesday, but it’s unclear if he’ll be able to play at full capacity considering his last-minute arrival. The Broncos improved significantly at quarterback with Case Keenum and also added promising rookie running back Royce Freeman during the offseason, leaving the Seahawks as a defense to avoid for your entry.
NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments
*Chris Tierney – cstcst*
NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments
If you’re playing DFS this weekend don’t get fancy. Who is going to win the game and how? Answer these questions for yourself prior to constructing anything from a lineup perspective. Making more than one lineup? Alter who will win and how a bit and construct again, all while keeping a similar core lineup.
As Demarcus Robinson and Josh Hill demonstrated last weekend, roughly one obscure player POPS in each playoff game. It will likely take having one of these guys on your squad to take down a large GPP. Rostering players such as these are a true dart throw and the risk often outweighs the reward. My dart throws this week are Vance McDonald and Corey Davis. Both guys can make the big play and both have decent matchups. The Jags have a great defensive backfield and are also adept at rushing the passer. Quick hitting plays to the TE and RB are two ways to attach a defense like the Jaguars. Vance McDonald made some big plays for the 49ers last season and has seen his role expand down the stretch after being injured for much of the season. Corey Davis’s role continues to expand in the Titans passing game. He had a serviceable game last weekend and faces another spotty secondary this week in a game where his offense will likely have to throw the football.
Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
Atlanta (-3.5, 41) at Philadelphia
On paper, this sure looks like a 26-13 or thereabouts Falcons win. They are a veteran-led group with an improving defense who is accustomed to the pressures of the playoffs. Paper doesn’t mean much come kickoff. This will be an interesting game and it will be roaring in Philly. There are some interesting options here but this game isn’t where the majority of my focus will be this weekend.
DFS Chalk: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Zack Ertz, Devonta Freeman
DFS Value: Nick Foles, Nelson Agholor, Tevin Coleman, Mohamed Sanu, Jay Ajayi
Tennessee at New England (-14, 48)
This game has the opportunity to shoot out. Will the real New England defense please stand up? Statistically, they’ve been one of the worst units in the NFL this season but they’ve bowed their backs when it mattered most, allowing them to take the Division and home-field advantage yet again. Tennessee’s pass defense has been a sieve which shines a light upon his Greatness and his favorite Tight End. I think New England wins here, but I think it will be more difficult than many expect. The Titans gained some confidence last weekend and I expect their offense to have some success. I think there are a bunch of players worth rostering in this game. Remember, Belichick likes to neutralize one aspect of his opponent’s offense. That has to be the Tennessee running-game right? #gametheory – Tennessee passing attack is interesting to me in GPP situations. The return of Hogan should lighten the targets to Cooks here.
DFS Chalk: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, Delanie Walker, Derrick Henry
DFS Value: Corey Davis, Eric Decker, James White, Rex Burkhead, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Rishard Matthews
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-7, 41)
Sunday should be the fun day for this weekends slate and kicks off with a very interesting matchup in Pittsburgh. If Ryan Shazier were healthy, I’d think this was a slam dunk Steelers victory. As we all now, he sadly is not (keep on getting well Ryan!), and the Steelers run defense has not looked the same. They’ll copy the Bills blueprint and load the box with eight men. Will Nathan Hackett trust Blake Bortles here? Will they allow him to attack this Steelers defense down the field with Lee, Hurns and Westbrook? That is likely their plan and without something like it, they’ll be cleaning out their lockers early next week. The Steelers offense has the tough chore of the Jaguars defense. The Jags will slow the Steelers down some here, but the Jags offense has to apply pressure to this Steelers team. An upset here wouldn’t shock me but I think this is perhaps the most interesting matchup of the playoffs thus far and will be telling about the Steelers Championship hopes.
DFS Chalk: Big Ben, LeVeon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster
DFS Value: Vance McDonald, Dede Westbrook, Mercedes Lewis, Marqise Lee
New Orleans at Minnesota (-4.5, 46.5)
Like our Carolina | New Orleans call last week, this is the one with the best opportunity to shoot out and could be a thrilling final game to the weekend. The Vikings are legit, but so are the Saints. Both of these teams are formidable on both sides of the ball and both teams have offensive players who can score from anywhere on the field. I prefer Minnesota here but as anyone who follows the NFL knows, the Saints offense is capable of moving 85 yards in two or three plays at any time.
DFS Chalk: Case Keenum, Adam Thielen, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara
DFS Value: Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Kyle Rudolph, Ted Ginn, Brandon Coleman, Josh Hill
Top GPP Stacks:
1a: Case Keenum, Jerick Mckinnon, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas
2a: Tom Brady, James White, Rob Gronkowski, Corey Davis
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Divisional Round
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Divisional Round
Next week will feature a small two-game slate with the Conference Championships. This week’s NFL Divisional round is the final four-game slate of the NFL season. We have some exciting games this week on both the NFC and AFC, so let’s dive in.
Vegas
The Vegas numbers this week features a little bit of everything. We have the Patriots as the team with the best Vegas data, and we have two games that feature pretty close spreads in Minnesota and Philadelphia.
The Patriots are also featured in the game with the highest game total with the over/under sitting at 47. But unfortunately, the Patriots dominate that game with as 13.5 points favorites over the Titans (16.75), which makes the game not ideal for stacking in hopes of a two-way shootout.
The Saints (20.75) at Vikings (25.25) is not far behind with a game total of 46. The Vikings are favored by 4.5 points at home so that game if any, seems most likely to shoot out between the two teams.
The other two games Falcons @ Eagles and Jaguars @ Steelers both have a game total sitting at 41. The Steelers (24.25) are 7.5 point favorites at home, while the Falcons (22) are the only road team favored this week by 3 points.
Injuries aren’t expected to play a significant role this week. But DeMarco Murray has already been ruled out for the second consecutive week, and Antonio Brown is fully expected to be back on the field for the Steelers. Be sure to follow our News page at Lineup Labs for any last minute news.
Quarterbacks
Case Keenum ($6,100) – Sitting in the mid-range of quarterback pricing, Keenum is my cash game play this week. He’s $900 cheaper than Brady at the top, and $1,100 more expensive than Blake Bortles. Keenum hasn’t exactly set the world on fire over his past four games but comes into the week with the second-best Vegas data of all quarterbacks. Keenum has thrown at least two touchdowns in four of his last six games and is averaging over 30 attempts during that span. The Saints pass defense is respectable with Marshon Lattimore (4th via PFF), Ken Crawley (28th via PFF), and (PJ Williams 83rd via PFF) at cornerback, but they have also given up 58.38 DK points over the past two weeks to Cam (28.66) and Winston (29.72). Over the last two games, the Saints have given up a total of 712 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and 69 rushing yards and a touchdown. Keenum also gets the benefit of having an extra week to prepare and playing the game at home in an indoor stadium. I like the savings with Keenum.
Tom Brady ($7,000) – Brady is in a class of his own this week. With the highest projected team total at home against the best possible matchup in the playoffs. Brady is almost a sure bet to lead the quarterbacks in scoring. The reason why he’s a tournament play for me is that I’d rather use the savings at wide receiver this week. There’s not much convincing I need to do to justify playing Brady at home in the playoffs.
Running backs
Le’Veon Bell ($9,600) – As the case last week with Todd Gurley, this week atop the running back pricing, Bell is hugely overpriced from the other running backs and in a far from the ideal matchup. Bell is $1,800 more expensive than the second highest priced back Kamara ($7,800) yet; he’s still the best bet to reach value with the highest floor and ceiling. This week Bell comes in averaging over 20 DK points for the month and faces a Jags defense that forces opposing offenses to run the ball. The Steelers are a home favorite (-7.5) going up against the Jags defense that picked off Ben Roethlisberger 5 times in their matchup this season. With Antonio Brown potentially playing decoy out on the field, the Steelers could continue to force the ball to Bell who has at least six passing targets in his past seven games. Bell should be in line for 25-30 touches this week in a game that will likely feature terrible weather. According to CBS Pittsburgh, the game temperature is likely to sit in the teens at the start of the game and could see snow flurries and wind speeds near 20MPH. If that weather holds up, there’s no reason why the Steelers would test the Jags secondary and avoid giving the ball to Bell.
Devonta Freeman ($5,900) – Despite only getting two receiving targets last week and averaging 3.7 yards per carry, Freeman was able to turn in an atrocious game into a modest one on the road against the Rams. While I generally don’t like playing running backs on the road, Freeman comes into play as a top 3 projected running back to reach value this week. Freeman has actually produced better on the road than at home this season and has had two of his best games on the season on the road against the Bucs (33.4) and Lions (25.8). At a sub $6,000 price, I like playing Freeman as a favorite going up against the Nick Foles led Eagles who could turn the ball over, which would lead to a shorter field for Atlanta. Freeman should expect to see anywhere from 18-23 touches this week.
Dion Lewis ($6,600)/James White ($4,300)/Rex Burkhead ($5,700) – It’s worth monitoring the Patriots running back situation. Both White and Burkhead returned to practice this week, and the Pats are fully expected to have their trio of running backs available. If Burkhead plays, he is expected to be limited. When he was in the mix, White saw a drop off in playing time with Lewis being the early down backs and Burkhead working out of the passing game. If they all are active, I’d only consider playing Lewis for salary relief. But if only Lewis and White are active I don’t mind playing White because of the work he could see in the passing game and his cheap price tag.
Wide Receiver
Brandin Cooks ($7,000) – From the high priced range, I like Brandin Cooks this week a tad bit more than Adam Thielen ($7,600) for the savings. Cooks is a cheaper way to get exposure to Brady and has been a target monster for the Patriots passing attack this season. Cooks will be facing Adoree’ Jackson who ranks 39th via PFF, but we saw last Tyreek Hill have success against the Titans secondary last week. It’s also worth monitoring if Chris Hogan will play. He’s expected to but if he misses that should bump up Cooks’ target projection.
Mohamed Sanu ($5,700) – Sanu continues to remain involved in the Falcons passing attack over the past four games. In his last four games, Sanu has 30 targets and 17 receptions for 200 yards. He’s affordable under 6K and only needs 5 for 70 to reach value for you. He should see a lot of Jalen Mills who’s a decent cornerback, but if Ronald Darby shadows Julio Jones, Ryan could force more targets Sanu’s way.
Nelson Agholor ($4,800) – Agholor has seen an uptick in production since Nick Foles took over at quarterback for the injured Carson Wentz. He’s seen his market share of targets rise, while Alshon Jeffery has seen his targets decrease. In three games with Foles as the quarterback, Jeffrey has 14 targets to Agholor’s 19. Agholor has upside to make a big play anytime; he’s on the field so one big catch could give you all need to make value.
Tight End
Zach Ertz ($5,800) – Ertz has been one of the few Eagles players whose production has not faltered since Nick Foles took over for Wentz. In the first two full games with Foles under center, Ertz has 25 targets and 15 catches for 137 yards and a touchdown. On top of that, Ertz has five targets within the red zone with Foles under center. Of course, Gronk is viewed as the top tight end option on the board, but Ertz has been just as productive as Gronk this season. If Ertz is going to continue to be fed with targets, it almost makes him a lock and play with a $1,300 savings from Gronk.
Delanie Walker ($5,000) – Walker is coming off of a nice game against the Chiefs in the Wild Card round. He saw 8 targets and 6 catches for 74 yards. Who knows, he may have even added a touchdown if Mariota didn’t do that touchdown pass to himself within the 5-yard line. He’s the number one receiver for the Titans, and if the game script goes as Vegas thinks it will go, Mariota will be throwing quite a bit. Walker could potentially see double-digit targets, and if he catches 7 for 70, he doesn’t kill your lineup.
Defense
Minnesota Vikings ($2,900) – The chalky plays are going to be the Steelers and the Eagles. I like saving the salary and taking a shot with the Vikings defense. The Saints running backs showed last week that they could be stopped and the Vikings defense is better than the Panthers. Defense is so volatile, so I will almost always look for the team that offers up the most value per dollar.
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Wild Card Round
*Cesar Becerra*
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Wild Card Round
We’ve made it through another NFL season! I hope you had as much fun as I’ve had during the NFL. But don’t put the brakes on the train quite yet! We still got a few more weeks of NFL DFS, and it doesn’t get any juicier than this Wild Card Week. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
** Demarco Murray has been ruled out ** Bump up Derrick Henry for touch projections.
Vegas
We have four games on the slate, and they are Falcons at Rams (48), Saints at Panthers (47.5), Titans at Chiefs (44.5), and Bills at Jaguars (39.5). ATL/LA and CAR/NO both have respectable game totals that you would like to target, while the BUF/JAX game leaves a lot to be desired with a total below 40 points.
The Rams and Saints lead the way with implied team totals of 27.5. The Chiefs (26.5) and Jags (24) aren’t far behind. It’s interesting how none of these games have a spread less than a touchdown. The Rams and Falcons have the closest spread at 5.5, but that line started at 5, which indicates betters are putting more money on the Rams and the line could push the Rams to up over a touchdown favorite. Per usual, check back with Vegas Insiders on Sunday morning for the latest Vegas data.
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton ($6,500) – Cam is the safest play for cash games on this short four-game slate. Cam has a rushed the ball 50 times over his last four games and had accumulated 239 yards (4.8 YPC) with a touchdown. What’s more encouraging is the red zone opportunity Cam is getting rushing the ball. Cam has 12 red zone rushing attempts over these same four games, which shows that if the Panthers get down to the goal line, there’s a good chance Cam is going to score. This matchup is far from ideal as the Saints’ corners are far more talented than the Panthers receivers. But If Cam can get give you 11 DK points through the ground and another 220 and a touchdown through the air you’ll be satisfied he didn’t kill you like he killed many in Week 17.
Drew Brees ($6,400) – By this point in the season, it’s been well documented that Brees doesn’t have the same ceiling as he’s had in the past. But considering he’s implied to score a slate-high 27.5 points and is a home favorite, I don’t mind using Brees as a hedge to the Saints running backs. The Panthers ranked 4th in the league to opposing running backs and 22nd in aFPA to opposing QB (32nd aFPA vs. WR). This screams pass funnel, and I like a Brees pivot off the two-headed monster in the backfield for New Orleans.
Marcus Mariota ($5,500) – Mariota is my value play worth considering. The Chiefs are an 8.5 point favorite (tied for slate high) so that could force the Titans to throw more than they would like. Murray has already been ruled out, so I will be interested to see if they work Henry and Mariota out of the Wild Cat formation, which could increase Mariota’s rushes. The Chiefs ranked 23rd in aFPA to opposing Quarterbacks, so if Mariota is given the opportunity, he should be able to reach his value at $5.5K.
QB Rankings:
Newton
Brees
Goff
Ryan
Mariota
Smith
Bortles
Taylor
Running Back:
Todd Gurley ($9,700) – Gurley is the most expensive player on the slate. While the matchup seems far from ideal with the Falcons ranking 1st in aFPA to opposing running backs, Gurley is in a prime spot to reach value based on his ability to catch balls out of the backfield. The Falcons allowed the most receptions (107) and fifth most receiving yards (802) to running backs this season. Gurley finished in the top 5 of both categories and should eclipse 150 total yards. Gurley also benefits from being a home favorite with a team projected to score the most amount of points on the slate. Gurley might be too expensive for some in cash games given the excess of running back options. But he’s a prime candidate to be the highest scoring player on the slate with 68.5 DK points in his last two games.
Leonard Fournette ($7,400) – Fournette is the matchup play of the week. He’s a home favorite going up against the Bills defense that ranked dead last in aFPA to running backs during the regular season. Fournette also comes in as the fifth highest-priced running back and is the most affordable of the stud running backs. Fournette has 14 receptions in his past four games, but only has 129 yards (9.2 YPC). He doesn’t have the reception upside as Gurley, Kamara, McCoy, or Hunt but that’s why he’s priced lower.
Derrick Henry ($6,000) – With DeMarco Murray out, Henry is in line for another heavy workload day considering the Titans like to run their offense with a run-first mentality. Henry touched the ball 29 times for 117 yards and one score. Those numbers look great on the box score, but when you factor in that Henry only got two targets last week, it could be a little deceiving. If you erase the one catch Henry had for a 66-yard touchdown; you’re looking at a running back that had 5.1 DK points on 28 touches. This is extremely worrisome when you also factor in that the Titans are 8 point underdogs on the road and only implied to score 18 points. Henry might be the best point per dollar play in terms of touches, but the matchup is far from ideal.
RB Rankings:
High Tier
Gurley
Hunt
Fournette
Kamara
McCoy
Mid-Range
Henry
McCaffrey
Ingram
Freeman
Value:
Coleman
Tolbert * If McCoy is out *
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas ($7,800) – Thomas has 55 targets in the past six games, averaging just over 9 targets per game. In that same span, Thomas has 39 catches (70% catch rate) for 492 yards (82 yards/game) and 3 touchdowns. Thomas is going up against the Panthers who ranked 32nd in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. See Adam Levitan’s tweet below for the most recent production for WR’s 1 against the Panthers secondary. Thomas is the safest high priced option, but will likely need to score to reach value.
Robert Woods ($6,600) – Since I’m likely going to play Thomas in my lineups, I’m probably going to avoid the other chalk wide receiver Tyreek Hill ($6,800). And if I’m staying in that price range I like pivoting to Woods. Since returning from a shoulder injury that kept him out for 3 weeks, Woods has regained his spot as the primary receiver in the Rams offense. In his two games back, Woods has received 15 targets and has turned that into 9 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. While the production isn’t great, with two full weeks to prepare for this game, expect Sean McVay to work Woods back into the passing game plan. I love getting exposure to Woods mainly because I’m not rostering Goff but I will be rostering Gurley and Woods to get all the exposure of the Rams passing game.
Eric Decker ($3,500)/Corey Davis ($3,600) – Value is really tough to come by on this slate, and you’ll likely need to find a receiver close to min salary to be happy with your lineup. I prefer Decker over Davis and Albert Wilson ($3,300). Let the others flock to Wilson and inflate his ownership because of his 19 targets in the past two games. However, it’s worth noting that last week he played with the Chiefs B-Team, so he was given all the targets (11). I like Decker over Davis because Davis hasn’t been the same since returning from injury. In the past four games, Decker is out targeting Davis 32 to 26 while playing the same amount of snaps (76%). The Chiefs ranked 26th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers, and Decker leads the wide receivers in targets in their last four games.
WR Rankings:
High
Thomas
Julio
Woods
Hill
Funches
Mid-Range
Sanu
Ginn
Matthews
Kupp
Value
Decker
Davis
Tight End
It’s really difficult to find the salary to pay for Travis Kelce ($7,100). You have to decide if you want Kelce or a top-tier wide receiver but unfortunately, that forces you to play value wide receivers, and I see more value at the tight end position than a receiver. Because we’re so limited in value, this could be a week that we see two tight ends in a lot of lineups.
Delanie Walker ($4,700) – Walker is a nice mid-range tight end that could find his way in your lineups. He has 29 targets in his past four games and has turned that into 16 catches for 131 yards and one touchdown. This week he goes up against the Chiefs who rank 13th in aFPA. Walker would need to find the end zone to make value, but he has a respectable floor compared to the other options.
Austin Hooper ($2,900) – Hooper will be a popular value option at tight end. He doesn’t do anything that wow’s the box score (13 targets in last four games). But he’s a value play below $3K that will see 2-6 targets and is going up against the Rams who ranked 20th in aFPA to tight ends. It’s nothing special, but at least you won’t be the only one rostering him this week.
Marcedes Lewis ($2,500) – Again like I said, value is scarce, so I’m giving you an extra tight end I’m considering. Lewis is not a target monster by any means (8 in last four games). But I’m encouraged by his team market share of receiving touchdowns (23.8%), which is second among all tight ends behind Kelce. In the red zone, Lewis has a 40% touchdown rate per target (4 TDs to 10 targets). At 2.5K all he needs is to catch a touchdown. It’s a shot in the dark, but that’s how you have to build lineups this week.
TE Rankings:
Kelce
Walker
Olsen
Clay
Lewis
Hooper
Defense
Los Angeles Rams ($2,700) – The Rams are the best defense for value playing at home against a Falcons team that is only implied to score 21 points. They are cheap enough to take a risk on and have the second highest sack percentage (9%) on the slate behind the Jags (11%).
DST Rankings:
Jags
Rams
Chiefs
Bills
NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 7 – Draftkings Cash and Gpp Plays
Week 7 is an interesting week that doesn’t feature many heavy favorites. The biggest favorite on the slate are the Dallas Cowboys against the San Francisco 49ers, and the spread is at 6. The big game that most people would like to target is the Falcons at Patriots. However, since Draftkings recently removed the Sunday Night Game off of the Main slate, that game is not available on unless you play the Thursday through Monday slate. Since this article is mainly driven on the DraftKings main slate, I will not be addressing plays from the Sunday Night Game.
For Sunday’s Main slate there are four games that have respectable game totals. The Saints (26.5) at Packers (21) lead the way with a 47.5 over/under followed by the the Rams (25) at Cardinals (21.75) with a 47 o/u. The Browns (20.5) at Titans (26) and the Cowboys (26.25) at 49ers (20.25) both have a total of 46.5. Outside of those games, Vegas sees a lot of cross off games like the Jets (17.75) at Dolphins (20.75), Vikings (22.75) at Ravens (17.25), and even Bears (17.75) at Seahawks (23). Each of these games has over/under of 41 points or less.
Quarterbacks
Tyrod Taylor (DK $5,100) – Taylor might be the highest owned quarterback this week. Taylor is coming off of a bye and is going up against the Bucs who rank 27th DVOA against the pass this season. This gamer currently doesn’t have a line because of the injury status of Jameis Winston, but this game should feature a fair amount of possessions with both teams ranked in the top 15 of the pace of play. Taylor always provides nice rushing upside. We’ve seen Taylor rush for more than seven attempts in all but one game this season. He has yet to find the end zone on the ground, but he could be in for some positive regression.
Dak Prescott (DK $7,300) – The top projected quarterback on the board according to our partner 4for4 projections is Dak. Unfortunately, he doesn’t come cheap as he’s the second highest priced QB on the slate behind Drew Brees. Dak is going up against the 49ers defense that ranked 32 DVOA against the pass, and the Cowboys are projected to score 26+ points. I think this game has some sneaky shootout potential with both defenses ranking in the bottom half of the league (DAL 22nd DVOA). I also think Dak will be a nice pivot off of Elliott who is the chalkier play in this game.
Ben Roethlisberger (DK $6,200) – I haven’t played Ben all year, and I’m pretty happy about that. A big reason why I don’t play Ben is because of his home and road splits. This week, Ben finds himself on the positive side of that splits at home against the Bengals. The Bengals are a far from ideal matchup as they rank 8th DVOA against the pass this season. But he had a nice bounce-back effort last week against the Chiefs after a performance that had him contemplating retirement against the Jags. Ben is a little risky due to his matchup and his performance this season. I just think he has so many talented weapons on his side that this offense has to get it rolling at some point. He’ll be low owned, and the game should stay close, so I like the game script for this matchup.
GPP Value Play
Brett Hundley (DK $5,100) – I keep seeing Hundley’s name on Twitter so it makes me think he won’t be as low owned as I expect but he’s a nice pivot from Taylor. Hundley didn’t look so great replacing Rodgers last week, but this week he gets a full week with the first-team offense. Hundley has been in the Packers organization for the last three season and has a good amount of weapons at his disposal. I expect Drew Brees and the Saints to light up the Packers, so that gives Hundley plenty of opportunity to throw the ball playing catchup. Hundley did rush for over 1,700 yards and 30 touchdowns at UCLA so he can make some plays with his feet. At 5.1K it doesn’t take much to hit value.
Cash Considerations:
D. Brees, D. Prescott, T. Taylor.
GPP:
B. Roethlisberger, B. Hundley, C. Palmer.
Running Backs
Todd Gurley (DK $8,200) – Gurley leads all the running backs in terms of projected raw points. Yes, even over Bell, Elliott, and Fournette who are all priced higher than him. Each of those backs are in great spots as well, but the 4for4 projections as of Wednesday night has Gurley as the frontrunner. Gurley is in an ideal spot for a running back. He’s a home favorite on a team implied to score over 25 points and has received 30 targets this season. The concern is that he’s facing a Cardinals defense that ranks 2nd DVOA against the run.
Jay Ajayi (DK $6,200) – If we’re looking for highest projection of points per dollar, Ajayi leads the charge per the 4for4 projections. Ajayi is projected at over 18 points and with his 6.2k price tag he comes in at over 3x value. Ajayi is also in the same situation as Gurley as he’s a home favorite (-3) against the Jets who rank 21st DVOA against the run. I typically like to target running backs that have more targets upside, but Ajayi has seen some 10 targets the past four weeks. He’s playing on 72% of the snaps and has 88% of the rushing attempts. This game could be low scoring, and if the Dolphins are around their implied total, Ajayi figures to be the primary beneficiary.
Jerick McKinnon (DK $6,300) – We saw McKinnon go off last week for both rushing TD and receiving TD when he was chalk. This week his ownership should regress back down to average as he’s seen his price spike up over $1k. Mckinnon is a home favorite against the Ravens. The Ravens have one of the best passing defenses and have a modest rushing defense so their somewhat of a funnel defense. Baltimore ranks 17th DOVA against the run. If the Vikings are going to attack this Ravens defense, it’s going to have to do so on the ground since Diggs has not practiced and Keenum will be behind center. I’d lean Ajayi over Mckinnon if I had to choose between the two.
GPP Value Play
Alvin Kamara (DK $5,600) – Kamara disappointed some people last week after being out produced by Mark Ingram. Last week Kamara was out snapped 30:47 by Mark Ingram and only received 29% of the rushing attempts out of the Saints backfield. We knew going into last week that Ingram was still the early downs back and Kamara would get his opportunity during 3rd downs. Kamara caught all 4 of his targets last week but only produced 12 receiving yards. He’s still a talented back, and at 5.6K he’s still relatively cheap to garnish some GPP consideration.
Cash + GPP Plays:
Gurley, Bell, Ajayi, Fournette, Elliott, Ingram.
Gpp Plays:
McCoy, Hyde, McCaffrey, Kamara, McKinnon, Henry (if Murray is out Henry is a top play).
Wide Receivers
Aj Green (DK $8,300) – Currently the second highest priced wideout and the second highest projected receiver on our board, Aj Green is a great play this week. Since changing offensive coordinators, Green leads the team in targets with 33 (11/game) and has scored three straight weeks. Bill Lazor is making an effort to get the ball to Green, and he’s showing them why by posting up monster games. He’s priced up with Antonio Brown, but if you want to make a contrarian lineup, paying up for both of these receivers and finding value at running back is a good way to do so.
Dez Bryant (DK $7,800) – Dez and the Cowboys receivers are going up against the 49ers who rank dead last DVOA against opposing receivers this season. Bryant has a solid floor with over 11 projected targets according to 4for4. At $7,800 he’s the third highest priced receiver on the board and has the third highest projection of the week. I think this game could be a sneaky shootout and I think a Bryant/Dak stack could be a nice hedge from the Cowboys running game.
Devante Adams (DK $5,800) – Adams was Hundley’s favorite target last week after replacing Rodgers. Adams had a difficult matchup last week against Xavier Rhodes but still saw 10 targets from Hundley. He was able to produce 5 catches for 55 yards and a score with those Targets. This week he’s going up against a Saints defense that ranks 12th DVOA against receivers, but I see Adams getting an ample amount of targets in this one.
GPP Value Play
Bennie Fowler (DK $3,300) – Emmanuel Sanders is expected to miss this week, and Fowler figures to set into Sanders’ role. Fowler saw 8 targets from Siemian last week and played 75 % of the snaps. He only has 13 catches on the season, but most of his production has come from the slot. Now he should get some time as the 2nd receiver behind Thomas. Fowler did score twice against the Chargers in week 1, so there could be something he sees against this Charger defense.
Cash + GPP Plays:
Brown, Green, Bryant, Thomas, Fitzgerald, Landry, Baldwin, Adams, Garcon.
GPP Plays:
E. Decker, K. Benjamin, J. Nelson, K. Allen, R. Matthews, M. Lee, B. Fowler, R. Woods.
Tight End
Delanie Walker (DK $5,800) – Walker has had a down start to the season, yet to find the end zone. But what do I always say? Play tight ends against the Browns. This week Walker is that tight end. He is second on the team in targets only behind Rishard Matthews but is averaging 14% targets per snap. He is, however, the most expensive tight end on the board.
George Kittle (DK $3,600) – Kittle’s price is starting to rise against with his production the last two weeks. In the past two weeks, Kittle has had 17 targets and has caught 13 receptions for 128 yards and a touchdown. This week the 49ers will roll out rookie QB CJ Beathard who out of Iowa. Beathard and Kittle were teammates for four years in college. The rookie could lean on Kittle to move the ball. The Cowboys also rank 31st in DVOA against the tight ends this season.
GPP Value Play
Zach Miller (DK $3,200) – Miller has seen an uptick in production since the Bears made the movie to first-round draft pick Mitchell Trubisky. Miller has 5 receptions on 10 targets with Trubisky under center and has scored twice the past two weeks. Miller is a nice value play at this price.
Cash:
Kittle, ASJ, Witten, Graham.
GPP:
Walker, Engram, Miller, Kroft, Bennett, Fleener.
Defense
Rams (DK $2,600) – Defenses are so volatile I usually tend to look for the defense with the best value. The Rams rank third in our projected points per dollar scoring and are home favorites against the Cardinals. The Cardinals offense airs out the ball quite a bit and gives up a lot of sacks. The Rams front seven should be able to put pressure on Palmer and get a few sack in this game.
NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football: Week 5 Cash and GPP Plays
Week 5 brings us the first scheduled bye week (Tampa Bay and Miami week 1 bye week was obviously not scheduled). This leaves us incredibly thin at Quarterback if you are playing the main slate. *Note that Draftkings main slate does not include Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, nor Monday Night Football* This week we’ll be without the Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints, and Washington Redskins.
Let’s get to the position breakdown.
Quarterbacks
As I mentioned, QB is incredibly thin if you’re playing Draftkings main slate. With the teams on byes that leaves us without Brees, Ryan, Siemian, and Cousins. Each are quarterbacks who could warrant usage in a week with a solid matchup. The list of available quarterbacks becomes even shorter when you exclude the TNF, SNF, and MNF game. That removes Brady, Winston, A. Smith, and Watson from the slate. So as you can see we are missing quite a few relevant quarterbacks on the main slate. My best advice if you want to get exposure to any of these guys would be to play on the Thurs-Mon slate, but for the sake of consistency, I’ll only address players on the main slate.
Aaron Rodgers (DK $8,100, FD $9,500) – The highest priced QB on both sites and for a good reason. Rodgers comes into the game with the highest over/under at 52.5. The Packers are currently 2 point underdogs implied to score the second highest mark on the slate (25.25). Rodgers has played three of his first four games at home but was able to eclipse the 300-yard mark and throw two touchdowns against the Falcons in week 2. This week the Packers offense should look to rely more on Rodgers’ arm with Ty Montgomery expected to miss the game with a rib injury. Pay up for Rodgers if you can afford him in cash games.
Dak Prescott (DK $6,800, FD $7,700) – Staying in the same game, let’s go to the opposite side of the ball. Prescott and the Cowboys currently have the largest implied team total on the slate (27.25) and are at home against a Packers secondary that has yet to allow a 300-yard passer through the first four games. The Packers secondary has held opposing quarterbacks to an average of 210 yards and 1 touchdown. It is worth noting that three of those four games have been at home and against quarterbacks off to a slow start (Wilson, Dalton, and Glennon). The situation may not seem to be ideal for Prescott, but I expect the Packers secondary to regress a bit, especially with Rodgers needing to throw the ball more. Prescott does have some rushing equity, which could help him reach value. Currently, Dak is projected to score the fifth highest total according to Lineup Labs player pool.
Carson Palmer (DK $5,900, FD $7,200) – If you’re looking for value you may want to consider Carson Palmer, who is currently rated as our second highest points/dollar QB. Palmer is on the road facing the Eagles who have averaged 300 yards and 1.8 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks per game. The Cardinals are about a touchdown underdog so the game script could favor Palmer if the Cards fall behind and he has to throw 40+ times. Consider Palmer a gpp only flyer.
Other options to consider
Matthew Stafford (DK $6,300, FD $7,600) – Stafford is one of the most talented QBs on the slate but has a difficult matchup against the Panthers at home. The Panthers have averaged 211 passing yards and 1.3 touchdowns this season. They have shown vulnerabilities against good QBs, allowing Brees and Brady to combine for 527 yards and five touchdowns the last two weeks.
Brian Hoyer (DK $4,700, FD $6,500) – Again a pure value play that allows you to allocate salary at other positions, but Hoyer is facing a Colts defense that has averaged a touchdown and over 240 in every game this season.
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell (DK $9,500, FD $9,500) – Finally, the Le ‘Veon we all grew to know and respect made an impact this season. Bell is coming off of a 39 touch game, in which he totaled 186 yards and two touchdowns against a solid Ravens defense. The Steelers are the biggest favorite on the slate (8.5) and are at home so Le’Veon checks all the boxes you’d want for your number 1 running back. The issue is trying to get the salary to pay up for him.
Todd Gurley II (DK $8,000, FD $7,800) – Gurley makes his way on the list over Zeke simply because of the salary savings you get. On DK you save $800, and on FD you save $900 from Zeke. I expect Zeke to have higher ownership than Gurley and rightfully so as Like Bell, Zeke is a home favorite and coming off of a big game. But here’s the kicker, Gurley is too. Surprisingly the Rams are a slight favorite over the Seahawks at home (-1) and are implied to score 24.25 points. Gurley has been heavily involved in the passing game this year and should get plenty of work in a game I expect to be a slugfest. Gurley is second in our projected points behind Bell.
Jonathan Stewart (DK $3,900, FD $5,700) – Looking for a value you may want to drop all the way down to Jonathan Stewart. Yes, I know his role has diminished since McCaffrey has joined the Panthers backfield, but Stewart has continued to get the majority of the carries. Through the first four weeks, Stewart has received 63% of the rushing attempts out of the Carolina backfield. Stewart is only playing in 42% of the snaps, which trails McCaffrey, but at 3,900 on DK if Stewart finds the end zone he could very well hit 3x value. Stewart is currently ranked as our top-rated value play according to DFSR projections.
GPP Flyer
Joe Mixon (DK $5,500, FD $5,900) – His price actually dropped a couple of hundred dollars ($200) on DK, which is surprising. Coming into the season, it was only a matter of time before Mixon took over the Bengals backfield. Since firing Ken Zampese and appointing Bill Lazor as the OC, Mixon has received 52% of the snaps and 65 % of the rushing attempts out of the Bengals backfield. Last week Mixon had 17 rushes and four catches on four targets but was only able to muster 28 yards. He’s going up against a tough Bills defense, but as a 3 point home favorite, I can get around the idea of sprinkling in some Mixon on my GPP teams.
** It’s worth monitoring the Packers practice reports. Montgomery is expected to miss so that could lead to more opportunities for Aaron Jones. But at $5,100 on DK and $5,900 on FD, I’d rather take my chances with Mixon over Jones.
Other options to consider
Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi, Frank Gore, Ameer Abdullah, Duke Johnson, Bilal Powell, Wendell Smallwood.
Wide Receivers
Dez Bryant (DK $6,500, FD $7,800) – Dez is perhaps my favorite wide receiver to play this week for the sole reason that the game script may lead to more targets for Dez. Dez is currently 4th in the NFL in targets with 40, which is just over 42% of Dak Prescott’s targets. The Cowboys are implied to score over 27 points, and the game script could mean that the Dallas passing offense will need to be in full force, so I expect Bryant to get a lot of looks. Bryant only has a 40% catch rate on his targets, but that has a lot to do with the difficult matchups he’s had to deal with through the first four weeks of the season. I like a Dak and Dez stack to help differentiate lineups.
Jordy Nelson (DK $8,100, FD $8,600) – Jordy will be the most popular receiver in the slate. Nelson figures to get a lot of work considering that the Packers will abandon the run game and force Rodgers to throw 45+ times. Nelson is coming off of a week 3 where he caught 4 of his seven targets, which included two touchdowns against the Bears. Nelson has now caught over 60% of his targets and has scored four touchdowns in what really was only 3 full games on the field.
Randall Cobb (DK $6,700, FD $6,600) – If you have not noticed yet, I really like every aspect of this Green Bay vs. Dallas game. The Packers are going to be one dimensional, and I think the Cowboys are going to have to play catch up. But Cobb is my sneaky play here. With Ty out I can see a situation where Cobb gets some work out of the backfield, adding in 3-5 more touches for the game. Cobb does most of his damage in the slot, but if Adams and Montgomery are out, I see him playing the same role that Montgomery played last year where the Packers had backfield issues. This, of course, could make Geronimo Allison a play with Cobb getting less work in the slot. This entire Packers offense is a situation worth monitoring.
DeVante Parker (DK $6,600, FD $ 6,100) – It’s tough to trust any aspect of the Dolphins offense attack, especially when you consider that Jay Cutler hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdown passes in his last 16 starts. That being said, Parker is someone worth writing about. Parker is 18th in the league with 18 targets and has caught over 75% of those targets (14). The Titans rank 32nd in the league in aFPA to wide receivers, so this could be the breakout week for Parker.
Aldrick Robinson (DK $3,100, FD $4,600) – One of my favorite DFS writers, Adam Levitan love Aldrick for the sake of #Preseason. Aldrick has dominated preseason the past two years under Shanahan and now may get more of an opportunity with Marquise Goodwin in the concussion protocol. Last week Robinson had 12 targets in an 86% of the offensive snaps. If Goodwin is out, like I expect him to be, Robinson is likely to be a beneficiary. The 49ers are going up against the Colts secondary that has had a lot of trouble at WR this year.
Tight End
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (DK $3,500, FD $5,500) – I don’t know why I went away from playing tight ends against the Browns last week but lessoned learned and I’m not doing that again. The Browns rank 32nd against TE in aFPA, averaging just over 15 points per game. Jesse James lit up this defense in week 1 and so did Ben Watson, now after adding Tyler Kroft to the list, I can’t help but add ASJ to the list.
Delanie Walker (DK $4,700, FD $6,000) – Walker is 6th in the league in targets with 14 and now has to deal with a quarterback change with Mariota out. Matt Cassel will start this week and will likely be looking for a security blanket to dump the ball off to. Walker should be the most significant beneficiary of the Mariota injury. Walker is currently the third highest projected tight end according to our projections.
Tyler Kroft (DK $ 3,200, FD $5,500) – Kroft leads our projections as our top value play for the week. After a big performance against the Browns, Kroft figures to be an essential role in the Bengals red zone passing attack. Kroft caught six of his seven targets last week with Tyler Eifert out for the Bengals.
Defense
Pittsburgh Steelers (DK $3,900, FD $4,800) – The Steelers are the highest projected defense on both sites according to Lineup Labs and rightfully so. They are the biggest favorite on the slate, at home, and are going up against the Jags who are implied to score 17.5 points. The issue here is that they’re costly. They may be safe, but I’ll more than likely be looking elsewhere for defense.
San Francisco 49ers (DK $2,600, FD $4,200) – I think the 49ers are in a good spot to take advantage of a lousy offense. The Colts line gives up over 3 sacks per game, and the 49ers have a much improved defensive line. This 49er team has had a rough schedule to begin the season, but their defense has performed well even without their late first-round pick Reuben Foster.