Last week I wrote up a report on how to approach your fantasy draft before your draft day. Whether this is your first ever fantasy football draft or your tenth, that guide will help you craft a team that will put you in a good position to win your league with the proper draft pick strategies.
Now, being that it is “National Draft Week,” I’ll look into providing you with a strategy for wherever you may be picking, either 1-12 through the first five rounds in this installment of Fantasy Football 101. A lot can be pre-decided if you know where you are picking in your fantasy draft, but the later picks in the draft should generate some discussion.
Generally, a top 5 pick guarantees you a top tier running back to build your team around. Unfortunately, that’s not the case this season. This season the “top tier” running backs ranked 3 through 12 all have question marks. That leaves us with two consensus running backs, Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. Those two will be the first two players off the board in 98% of leagues. There’s no justification needed to draft either of these guys in the first round because they’re so far and beyond better than the next best running back. I’m going to point out some concerns over the next running backs with their average draft position (ADP) within the first two rounds.
LeSean McCoy – Ever since the news about the suspension of Ezekiel Elliott, McCoy has moved up to the number three ranked running back. While McCoy provides lots of upside for the number three ranked back, he has some concerns heading into the 2017 season. McCoy plays for the dumpster fire that is the Buffalo Bills. The Bills offense will be managed by former Denver Broncos Coordinator, Rick Dennison. Dennison ranked in the middle of the pack in run-pass percentage last season with the Broncos, which is surprising considering they had a subpar quarterback for most of the season. It will be interesting to see how much Dennison decides to utilize McCoy in his offense that no longer has a receiver that could stretch the field. That is because the Bills also just traded away their number one receiver and cornerback, so it’s anyone’s guess what direction this team is heading and if they even are looking to win this season. The Bills could find themselves out of several games early and often this season, and that doesn’t bode well for McCoy’s touch numbers.
Verdict: McCoy is a talented back that has finished in the top three of running back scoring in three of the last four seasons. His talent isn’t questioned, it’s the team that surrounds him that makes me skeptical of using a top 3 or even 5 pick on him with the direction of the organization. I’d be willing to pick him as early as 8th overall.
Melvin Gordon – Like McCoy, Melvin Gordon provides a good deal of upside, which is why I have him ranked as my number four running back. He had a nice bounce back season after a terrible rookie year in 2015. With Anthony Lynn as the new head coach, Gordon could be a lock to have his first 1,000-yard season. The biggest flaws with Melvin Gordon is his offensive line. Pro Football Focus ranked the Los Angeles Chargers as the 21st ranked offensive line in the league. The Chargers did their best to upgrade their offensive line by adding Russell Okung and Dan Feeney but whether or not they have a good year remains to be seen. Gordon is also coming off of a knee injury that cut his season short last season. He didn’t have surgery in the offseason, so that’s a good sign, but owners who are investing a top 10 pick would want to keep an eye on that knee this preseason.
Verdict: Gordon plays for a Charger offense that has plenty of weapons to keep the defense honest, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Gordon has a breakout season. He relied heavily on touchdowns last season so if his TD numbers don’t translate into this season he could see a drop in points. There’s no other running back on the Chargers roster that will take away from Gordon’s reps, and Anthony Lynn has proven to feed his running backs the ball with 14 consecutive 1,000-yard rushers in his career. I can justify taking Gordon as the 10th pick.
Devonta Freeman – Freeman has been a pleasant surprise over the past two seasons. He’s a dual threat running back that plays for the most dangerous offense in the NFL. However, there are reasons to be wary of drafting him in the top ten. Freeman’s touches last year were down from his 2015 breakout season. Last year Freeman had 58 fewer touches than he did in 2015, that is due in large part to Tevin Coleman. Also, Atlanta lost their offensive guru Kyle Shanahan and replaced him with Steve Sarkisian. There’s no telling how Sarkisian will run this high powered offense, but that could mean that Freeman loses some pass catching opportunities, which hurts his value.
Verdict: Freeman is the more talented back out of the two in Atlanta. He received most of the goal line work last season and didn’t have to worry about eight men in the box with Matt Ryan under center. Freeman is a borderline top 12 pick in my opinion as the wide receivers available at the end of the first round are too consistent to pass up. He’s missed time this preseason due to concussion concerns so that would be a situation to monitor moving forward.
DeMarco Murray – Murray had a nice bounce back season last year after an atrocious season with the Eagles. Despite being 29, he didn’t falter with production, totaling over 1,500 total yards last season. The concern here is with his role in the team moving forward. We saw rookie running back Derrick Henry steal some of his touches last year, and he was producing with the opportunities. Henry had 123 touches and scored five times last season. Being that it’s Henry’s second year in the offense, you can expect to see him eat into Murray’s production particularly in the second half of the season. Aside from Henry’s presence, the Titans also revamped their passing game by drafting Corey Davis and signing Eric Decker in free agency. Mariota has plenty of offensive weapons now with Davis, Decker, Delanie Walker, and Rishard Matthews, so it’s fair to question Murray’s workload this season.
Verdict: Murray will still be the featured back in this backfield, but barring injury or a breakout season by Henry who knows what his workload could look like. The Titans like to run the ball, but with a revamped passing game perhaps the offense becomes more balanced this season. Nonetheless, Murray is still a solid option if you’re drafting at the later part of your draft. I see Murray as a top 14 pick in non-PPR format.
Ezekiel Elliott – This is pretty clear, the suspension really killed his ADP. After being hit with a six-game suspension, Elliott went from number 3 overall to a borderline second rounder, in my opinion. There’s no doubt about Elliott’s talent and supporting cast, but the fact that he’s going to miss half of the fantasy season puts teams who draft him in a difficult spot.
Verdict: Elliott was one of the few running backs that could look to improve off of a stellar rookie season. The suspension is certainly something that should weigh down his value, but if you do decide to take him, make sure you’re drafting Darren McFadden as a handcuff in the later rounds. There are too many solid wide receivers to justify taking Elliott in the first or even early second round. I see Elliot drafted within the top 24 picks, but even that could be a reach. There’s no doubt that he has the talent to be a top 5 back. But risking half of the fantasy season on one player is a risk too steep for me to get over. Elliott would need to fall dramatically for me to own him this season.
These next few guys I’m going to bunch into one category because they all fall under the same tree.
Jay Ajayi, Jordan Howard, Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, and Isaiah Crowell – All these running backs round out the top 12 of the running back position. What do all these backs have in common? They all play for bad teams. Every one of these running backs plays for a team that has quarterback questions. This leads to more men in the box and less running lanes. It also will be difficult for running backs to get consistent touches on a weekly basis when their team projected always to be trailing. It isn’t as if these running backs are multi dimensional. For the exception of Gurley and Crowell, none of these backs caught more than 40 passes last season so, for the most part, they are dependent on rushing yards and touchdowns.
Verdict: We know that each of these running backs possesses high upside. We saw Ajayi’s 200-yard weeks, Howard and Crowell had nice seasons last year for terrible teams, Gurley was an absolute stud two years ago, and Fournette is considered the best running back out of this rookie class. They just aren’t as safe as the wide receivers available in their draft range.
If I’d have to go with two of these backs, I’d say my favorite would be Gurley and Crowell. Gurley had a terrible follow-up to his rookie season, but now with new head coach Sean McVay and an upgraded offensive line, it’ll be interesting to see how McVay incorporates Gurley into the offense. The Rams offense added a few offensive weapons in Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins so if Jared Goff can make a leap perhaps Gurley can have another big season. Isaiah Crowell had a sneaky good season last year, which is why I like him. I’ve seen Crowell fall on draft boards because he plays for the Browns but here’s the thing. The Browns actually come into the season with the number 2 ranked offensive line according to PFF.com. Although the Browns are likely to be terrible yet again, Crowell has established himself as the feature back in Cleveland over Duke Johnson and should score the majority of the points that Clevland scores this season.
Recap:
The Running Back position is the most important position in fantasy football. This is a position where it’s difficult to find production when you miss on top players. This year is not easy just jamming in the top running back in your first two picks. Aside from the creme of the crop, the other top running backs have some issues that you should at least consider before investing your first pick on one of them. When you compare that to the depth of top wide receiver position, it’s tough to justify forcing a running back to your team in the early rounds. It really depends on where you draft and who’s available, so I’ll show you how I’d approach a draft based on the different draft slots available.
Live Draft
The picks below were taken from a draft that I participated in earlier this week where I picked 7th. I’ll add some input on each team’s picks through the first five rounds.
Team 1
1.01 – Le’Veon Bell (David Johnson)
2.12 – Dez Bryant
3.01 – Demaryius Thomas
4.12 – Larry Fitzgerald
5.01 -Jordan Reed
What sticks out to me is Bell over Johnson, but there really is no right or wrong answer here. Picking at the top of the draft is always difficult to find a solid RB 2. I can understand how this team went WR in three consecutive picks.
Team 2
1.02 – David Johnson
2.11 – Doug Baldwin
3.02 – Rob Gronkowski
4.11 – Danny Woodhead
5.02 – Jarvis Landry
Solid start. Again this shows that when you pick early in the draft, it’s hard to find a decent RB 2 in the first three rounds. I think this team made out okay by drafting Woodhead in the fourth round.
Team 3
1.03 – Antonio Brown (Julio Jones)
2.10 – Leonard Fournette
3.03 – DeAndre Hopkins
4.10 – Frank Gore
5.03 – Delanie Walker
This team was a prime example of drafting a player based on the need to fill every starting spot right away. Drafting Walker was a reach if I’ve ever seen one. Walker has an ADP of going in the 8th round and the fact that he got taken in the 5th shows this team panicked when they saw the TE position thinning out and drafted by need, not by value. Also, I can’t see drafting Hopkins over Pryor or Crowell, but maybe this team knows something I don’t.
Team 4
1.04 – Mike Evans (Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr.)
2.09 – Ezekiel Elliott (Dez Bryant)
3.04 – Terrelle Pryor
4.09 – Bilal Powell
5.04 – Mark Ingram
This team took the chance to draft Elliott. Elliott was drafted in the late second round, which is right around where I’d expect him to go. My issue with this is that he didn’t do that great of a job covering his grounds by drafting Ingram and Powell, both are backs that split time and don’t have lots of upside. Ingram? Maybe but that’s only at the end of the season if Peterson gets injured.
Team 5
1.05 – LeSean McCoy (Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr.)
2.08 – Brandin Cooks (Dez Bryant)
3.05 – Marshawn Lynch
4.08 – Golden Tate
5.05 – Devante Adams
Out of the first five teams, this is the team to beat right now. One thing that this team did that’s worth noting is that they skipped over three pretty good wide receivers (Jones, OBJ, & Green). This team was set on running back early and drafted McCoy. In this case, it worked out because of how low the receivers dropped, and the team was able to draft a good WR in the second round. Not a bad strategy when you consider how deep WR is.
Team 6
1.06 – Julio Jones
2.07 – Michael Thomas
3.06 – Isaiah Crowell
4.07 – Alshon Jeffery
5.06 – Greg Olsen
Solid start. Would be interesting to see where this team goes for their second running back slot.
Team 7 – My team
1.07 – Odell Beckham Jr.
2.06 – Todd Gurley
3.07 – Christian McCaffrey
4.06 – Aaron Rodgers
5.07 – Emmanuel Sanders
First off, I was thrilled that OBJ fell this far in the draft. This was a no brainer for me, and I still can’t fathom how this happened. The one thing I did here that I RARELY do is I drafted a QB. But to me drafting Rodgers in the fourth round was too good of a value to pass up. The decision was between Rodgers and Tate, and I felt that Rodgers production was far and away better than the other QBs than Tate was with the remaining WR. Hence the Sanders pick that followed.
Team 8
1.08 – Devonta Freeman (Melvin Gordon)
2.05 – Amari Cooper
3.08 – Dalvin Cook
4.05 – Martavis Bryant
5.08 – Julian Edelman
I felt Bryant was a reach in the early fourth round, only because you don’t know what role he’ll play with this offense that already has so many mouths to feed.
Team 9
1.09 – A.J. Green
2.04 – Lamar Miller (Dez Bryant or Todd Gurley)
3.09 – Carlos Hyde
4.04 – Kelvin Benjamin (Alshon Jeffery or Aaron Rodgers)
5.09 – Allen Robinson
This team has a solid balance of players who are going to see a lot of volume. I have Gurley and Bryant ranked over Miller, but I can understand why he decided to go with Miller over those two.
Team 10
1.10 – Melvin Gordon
2.03 – T. Y. Hilton
3.10 – Michael Crabtree
4.03 – Doug Martin (Alshon Jeffery)
5.10 – Kareem Hunt
My biggest issue here is drafting Hilton this early. With Luck’s timetable up in the air, you don’t know what type of production you’re going to get from Hilton Scott Tolzien behind center. Also, Doug Martin is suspended for the first four games.
Team 11
1.11 – Jordy Nelson
2.02 – DeMarco Murray
3.11 – Tom Brady
4.02 – Travis Kelce
5.11 – Jamison Crowder
This team jumped the gun on Tom Brady and Travis Kelce. Certainly two of the top players in their position but this puts the team under pressure to have a strong back end of the draft at essential positions.
Team 12
1.12 – Jordan Howard
2.01 – Jay Ajayi
3.12 – Ty Montgomery
4.01 – Keenan Allen
5.12 – Tyreek Hill
The triple running backs method. It didn’t seem to hurt this team as they were able to get some wideouts with high upside. Ironically I think the wideouts are safer than the running backs, though.