NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Lineup Picks for 10/30/17

NBA Daily Fantasy

by Austyn Varney on October 30, 20170 Comments

NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Lineup Picks for 10/30/17

Use Code “LLNBA17” at checkout for 10% off Seasonal Package

Point Guard

Kyle Lowry
FD $7,500 DK $7,600

Welcome to a 9-game slate full of high totals, low totals, and plenty of injuries. We start things off with a late night Kyle Lowry. Lowry and the Raptors travel into Portland to face off with a Lillard-led Blazers squad. Lillard might be the face of this team, but it’s only because 1 side of the ball. And it isn’t defense. The Blazers have ranked in the bottom of the league against PG’s since Lillard joined the team. They allowed the 3rd most FP last year and this season hasn’t started much better. We’ll also see a great defender in C.J. McCollum on DeRozan, which should funnel even more action towards Lowry. He’s easily my favorite PG on this slate and I will have him everywhere. The price is great and he’s safe as can be against Lillard on the road. This is a game with serious shootout potential and I don’t think anyone besides Lowry will be highly-owned. Don’t be afraid to take 3 or 4 shots in this game if you think it stays close. Lowry is your safest way to get exposure.

Jarrett Jack
FD $4,200 DK $4,300

We see a slight price increase after starting 2 games and producing, but nothing that worries us. Still sitting below $4.5K, Jack will only need about 20 in cash games. He should have that with ease against a Nuggets team he matches up perfectly with. Jamal Murray is at PG for the Nuggets and isn’t a defender by any means. He’s decent at basic m2m coverage, but struggles mightily with any type of movement or screens. Not good when you’re playing a Knicks team that screens all night long. Jack is going to continue to get 28+ minutes and he’s always been a 1 FP/min, at least, so I don’t see that stopping now. He’s not a very good real-life PG, but for less than $4.5k, I’ll take him 100% of the time in this match-up. I actually do have 100% Jack right now, but it could change. I just think he’s the safest value option on the board and it’s not too close.

Shooting Guard

Klay Thompson
FD $11,000 DK $11,200

I’m a big fan of this GSW @ LAC game tonight, as I think it stays close. Vegas still hasn’t released anything for this game and it’s the morning of. Assuming the O/U is around 225 and the spread is between 8 and 13, a ton of these guys are in play. On the Warriors side, we’ll start with Klay Thompson. It doesn’t take rocket science to figure out why he’s in play. The Clippers sports Austin Rivers and Lou Williams at SG, so defense isn’t the priority. Klay will be able to get open whenever he wants. I don’t think that’s an exaggeration, either. There isn’t a shot in hell that Rivers or Williams can defend the 3-point game of Klay Thompson. 0% chance. It will just come down to whether they’re hitting the bottom of the net or not. Durant is seeing a lot more of the Warriors action, but Thompson is averaging just 2 fewer shots per game. It’s something, but meaningless with such a small sample size. Thompson will have a chance to have one of his games here, but he’ll have to come out hot and maintain. The Clips won’t be able to switch anyone on him because Beverley is on Curry and Gallo is on KD. If Thompson gets hot, it could be bedtime for the Clips.

Tim Hardaway Jr.
FD $4,300 DK $4,900

I’ve been on Tim Hardaway Jr. every single game so far. He disappointed me with variance for about a week before going absolutely ham against the Cavs. He finished with 34 points, 8 assists, and 4 rebounds. We haven’t seen the real Tim Hardaway Jr. yet. The real THJ is going to put up 2-25 real-life points and another 10 FP in various peripherals. I’m glad he broke out against the Cavs and proved to people what he could do, but I hope it doesn’t inflate his ownership. This match-up against the Nuggets isn’t great, but it’s not bad either. They’ve ranked 13th against opposing SG’s, with Will Barton and Gary Harris at the helm. Both of these teams play at a slightly above average pace and it’s why the expected total is over 210. Hardaway will be on 100% of my cash game lineup. He is a $6-$7k player, believe it or not. He’s going to average close to 20 real-life points on the season and will be a guy we will deliberate playing in the 6-7Ks. Right now, he’s under $5K and the worst priced player in the entire industry. If you find a lineup of mine without Hardaway, call the internet police. I’ve been hacked.

James Harden is great against the 6’ers, but the price is still crazy and he hasn’t been over 60 fantasy points yet. I’ll have plenty of exposure in tournaments, but didn’t need a paragraph to tell you that.

Small Forward

Kevin Durant
FD $10,300 DK $9,800

We’ll get right back to the Warriors after taking a spot off from Thompson. It might be tough to play both Durant and Thompson, but you can do it if you think the game stays close. They can both easily go off against this Clippers squad that doesn’t play much defense on the outside (besides Pat Bev). Danilo Gallinari was a capable defender early in his career, but those days are separated by about 5 surgeries and 10 years. That’s a big difference when you have the responsibility of covering Kevin Durant. Durant is going to, like Thompson, have his way when on the floor. He’s being looked at as the top option on this team and they’ve been willing to feed him whenever he wants. Sitting over 45 fantasy points in each, there isn’t much risk here. He is a lock for 4-45 fantasy points and that’s if the game blows out in the first half. If it stays close and Durant sees closer to 40 minutes, there’s no telling what his ceiling is. We haven’t seen it yet, that’s for sure. He’s my favorite SF on the slate and while nobody at that price is a must play, he’s close if you have the $ to spend on SF. Your other options aren’t the greatest.

Robert Covington
FD $6,400 DK $6,000

We haven’t touched on this affair between the Sixers and Rockets yet, but it’s my 2nd favorite game to target after the Clips and Warriors. It’s another game without a Vegas spread, but these 2 teams faced off just days ago and it resulted in plenty of fantasy goodness. Trevor Ariza didn’t play, however, so the individual match-up for Covington will be different. He still put up 34 fantasy points against them last time and is looking for a consistent option on the outside. In the past, he was a risky play every game due to the potential of going cold from the3-point line and being useless. That doesn’t look to be the case this year, as he’s been over 34 minutes in 3 straight contests. He’ll still have up and down the game because of his nature, but they will occur far less when the minutes are locked in. He will be able to work through those cold streaks instead of being put on the bench and told to wait until next game. There’s plenty of usage to go around on this 6’ers team and Covington is cheap-ish access to it. This game will remain close and should be high-scoring, so don’t be afraid to get extended exposure.

Power Forward

Blake Griffin
FD $9,500 DK $9,300

This one is risky. Even with Griffin being safe in terms of point per $, we don’t know how close this one will stay and Griffin is directly affected by that more than anyone else. If the Warriors do come out and slam the CLips into lockers, Griffin will stink it up. There’s just no reason for him to battle with Draymond Green for 35 minutes if it’s a 20 point uphill battle Then there’s the other side, that I’m on. The one where the game stays close and we get 48 meaningful minutes of basketball. If that’s the case, Griffin is one of the best plays of the season. This is a perfect match-up for him pace-wise, but will still struggle with the menace that Draymond is. Blake just loves to run at this pace and make things happen in the open court. He’s touching the ball on nearly every possession and this is his team to control. I will personally have cash game exposure as well, but can’t say it’s safe by any means. I’m just confident that the Clippers keep this one relatively close at home. In that scenario, stacking the game could come with some very nice benefits. Let’s hope, right?

Ryan Anderson
FD $5,400 DK $5,100

We’ll get right back to this ROckets game now after targeting Robert Covington at the 3. Anderson isn’t a guy I roster a ton, but you have to acknowledge when he’s getting the minutes and taking the shots. He’s always talented enough to sink them when given the chance. It’s just hard to pin down when he will be on the court. Over the past 3 games, he’s seen at least 34 in each. That lets me unleash him here in a match-up with the 76ers that fits perfectly. You almost need a stretch against them on the floor, so Anderson could see close to 40 minutes if it remains close. He can’t really guard anyone, but he’s certainly more athletic than the other options they have. Anderson will shoot the ball 12-15 times and give you a locked in 15 FP of rebounds/assists. His price is still way low and I’m fine with him in all formats. Power forward isn’t very deep, but Anderson is cheap and gives you a nice floor + ceiling.

Center

Karl-Anthony Towns
FD $9,800 DK $9,000

Hassan Whiteside is officially “unlikely” to play against the T-Wolves. He should probably get himself in there because this could get ugly. Quick. Just take a look at the Heat frontcourt and who exactly you think will cover Karl-Anthony Towns. The answer is nobody. Because of his size, the Heat will be forced to run Bam Adebayo and A.J. Hammons for more minutes than they should see in a month. They are both young, inexperienced, and not very good yet. But hey, they’re big, and that’s what the Heat need right now. In reality, Towns is just going to obliterate anyone not named Hassan Whiteside. He is right up there as the best offensive center in the league and will face a team that literally has no NBA center. I’m not sure what Spoelstra will truly draw up to slow Towns, but unless he has magic in those veins, I’m not sure it’ll work. Towns is a guy I want a lot of cash game exposure to, but he’s expensive. I just don’t see a single player having a shot at stopping Towns 1-on-1, so I’ll be aiming for 100% in cash.

Clint Capela
FD $7,500 DK $6,700

Clint Capela took the court against this same 76ers team a few days ago and put up 56 fantasy points. While we can’t depend or expect another number like that, Capela plays well and matches up against this squad. The 76ers continuously struggle against the PnR, which is what catapulted Capela into 50+ against these guys last time. If Harden comes out and does the same with certainly Capela this game, I think we see exactly what happened once again. He is a double-double on the bus against this team and has more upside than we even know. I certainly wouldn’t have said his upside was 56 prior to a couple games ago, so who knows. What we do know is that James Harden will get Capela involved early and often in a match-up he dominated. I do hope Embiid plays, for as Capela matches up with his size a little bit better. If Embiid is out, I could see the 6ers forcing small ball and the Rockets going along. That could leave you wait a 10 or 15 out of a pricey center.

NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Lineup Picks for 10/28/17

NBA Daily Fantasy

by Austyn Varney on October 28, 20170 Comments

NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Lineup Picks for 10/28/17

Use Code “LLNBA17” at checkout for 10% off Seasonal Package

Point Guard

Damian Lillard
FD$9,300 DK $8,800

If you’re ever going to play Damian Lillard, this is the spot. I’m not sure there is a single better situation he could be in right now. With Eric Bledsoe out, this fast-paced Suns team is working with Mike James and Tyler Ulis at the point. Both have been pitiful and it’s a big reason why the Suns have allowed the 4th most FP to PG’s on the season. Lillard has played well to start the year, but we haven’t seen the breakout contest we all know is right on the horizon. He’s also at home in the Moda Center, where most of those games happen. Lillard is my favorite guard on the slate and it isn’t very close. He will be in 100% of my cash games and tournaments. While I don’t think he’s THAT big of a must, that’s my personal stand. PG as a whole is pretty weak and Lillard gives you a 45 fantasy point floor with the upside for 65.

Dennis Smith Jr.
FD $6,500 DK $6,000

Dennis Smith Jr. has been as advertised. It’s always tough trusting preseason numbers, but it looks like they were correct here. Dennis Smith Jr. is a very good point guard and it looks to me like he has quite the future in this league. As for his role on this team, it’s consistent. He is getting the ball in his hands for 28-30 minutes and creating whenever possible. He then gets another 5-10 mins at SG, where he’s averaged just over 1 FP per minute. He’s bounced back quickly from the injury and is looking like a guy we will be targeting all season long. Tonight, he faces off with the 76ers. The 6’ers play a lot faster than the Mavs and the PG is always the one to benefit most in pace-up affairs. Smith is still affordable on both sites and makes an excellent play in all formats. He’s locked into the minutes and at least 30 fantasy points in this cupcake match-up.

Shooting Guard

Devin Booker
FD $7,000 DK $7,400

With shooting guard one of the ugliest spots on the board, we’ll return to the Moda Center and take a look at the Suns side of the ball. With Eric Bledsoe all but ruled out forever, this is Booker’s team to lose. He is going to get the ball in his hands and shoot as much as he possibly can. He’s been over 20 shots in each game without Bledsoe and this pace-up affair with the Blazers should be no different. He’ll match-up with a good defender in C.J. McCollum, but it doesn’t matter. He isn’t a Tony Allen or Pat Bev type, but more of just a hard-nosed defender. Booker has put up 40 real-life points on guys much better. When his shots are falling, it doesn’t matter who is playing defense. This game is currently sitting with the highest over/under of the night and I’ll be looking to get as much ownership as possible to it. Booker gives you the top Suns piece in a way too affordable tag. Look for Booker to be closer to $9k before too long. You can target McCollum on the other side as well, but I like the Lillard side of things more.

Rodney Hood
FD $5,300 DK $5,100

Rodney Hood is quite the stressful DFS asset. Opposed from having some type of injury tag EVERY DAY, he produces. However, for the first time in what seems like years, Rodney Hood has no O or Q next to his name. Crazy, I know. So, that means we can assume a healthy Rodney Hood against the Lakers. We know the Lakers don’t play much defense and they ranked 3rd worst against SG’s in 2016. That could change with KCP there now, but it hasn’t yet. Hood has played well through his nicks, intestinal issues, and whatever else may hinder a guy with no pain tolerance. He’s gone for well over 1 FP per minute, while shooting under his career average. Hood is way too cheap on both sites for this match-up and he should hit value easily and early. Shooting guard isn’t a very attractive spot, so Hood will be my main focus after Booker. At most positions, I spread my exposure to 4 or 5 guys in total. At shooting guard, there’s a good chance it stays at 3 tonight.

Small Forward

LeBron James
FD $11,300 DK $10,700

We haven’t touched on anyone super expensive, so you can fit LeBron if you want him on this slate. I definitely don’t think it’s a must, so keep that in mind. James is playing great basketball and has been over 60 fantasy points in each of the last 2 games. He now sees a favorable match-up against the Pelicans, who have no SF. They also don’t have anyone that is remotely Lebron James body type. I know not many are, but most teams have some 6’8 fighter than can go and duel with LBJ. For the Pelicans, I guess that’s Dante Cunningham or Quincy Pondexter. LOL. Lebron is going to run this floor and do whatever he wants. The Pelicans should also be without Anthony Davis, which widens the floor and the paint. Cousins is fine down low, but he’s not much of a shot contender. As long as this game stays remotely close, you can pencil in James for 50. His upside is always 70+ if the game stays close down to the final buzzer. Pairing James and Cousins is something I’ll look to do a lot of in tournaments. You have the value on this slate to do it with Lillard still in your lineup.

Harrison Barnes
FD $6,400 DK $5,700

There could be a bias here, as Harrison Barnes is a guy I love to roster. I’m not sure why. I despised him on the Warriors and said many times that he was my least favorite player on the planet. THen he moves to Dallas and after watching him play, was a fan. Now, I roster him what seems like every day. It works quite well for the intended purpose. Now, Barnes can be played in tournaments, but it’s not his thing. He’ll have a few random big games this year, but it won’t be often. Barnes is a guy who lives on consistency. He’s been over 25 FP in each game and now sees one against the shot-happy 76ers. This is one of the games with a bunch of points and a close spread, so you’re going to almost need some exposure. Barnes and Covington will be an interesting match-up to watch as they both play solid defense. Barns is the guy who this offense runs through and at this price, he’s as safe as can be against a run and gun 6ers squad. Don’t hesitate on Barnes if you need to pay down to the mid-range.

Power Forward

Kelly Olynyk
FD $5,500 DK $5,400

I could have gone James Johnson here as well, but he’s been priced up like crazy. Instead, with Hassan Whiteside out, we’ll look for revenge in Kelly Olynyk. Olynyk expressed to the media that this isn’t much of a revenge game as all the Celtics are gone. Still, he admitted there will be some extra juice there. It’s undeniable. He could also be lying and have a lot of vengeance towards this organization. They stuck him on the bench over guys like Amir Johnson for 4 seasons. None of it matters if he doesn’t get the minutes. Fortunately, this Celtics match-up fits his style perfectly and we should see no less than 30 minutes out of him. He has been at 2.32 FP/min on the season and is looking like a guy who has a lot of fantasy relevance at the price. The match-up with the Celtics is a speed-up game for the Heat, who play at a league-ranked 28th pace. Olynyk will come off the bench, but should be in there down the stretch. Expect 28-32 solid minutes.

Lauri Markkanen
FD $6,700 DK $6,300

Lauri Markkanen is a bit more expensive than Olynyk, but it makes sense why. Markkanen has been pretty consistent as a rookie, going for 25+ fantasy points in each of his first 4 games. Coming out of Arizona, he was supposed to be ready for the NBA, but this is still a surprise. He now sees his best match-up yet against a fast-paced Thunder team who doesn’t love defense. They have a lot of strong individual defenders (George, Roberson, Adams), but lack as a team because of the pace they play at. It gives teams extra possessions and even if the possessions aren’t super efficient, it’s better than Facing the Miami Heat and having far less of them. Markkanen is getting the ball a ton and we’ll see a solid 40 FP breakout a lot sooner than later. I’m hesitant to call it here, but I love him as a cash gameplay that you don’t have to worry all that much about.

Center

DeMarcus Cousins
FD $12,000 DK $11,900

Let’s assume Anthony Davis is playing. DeMarcus Cousins is interesting, but nowhere near a must. He would get a solid match-up against Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson, but will see a dramatically smaller usage %. Personally, if Anthony Davis plays, I’ll just try to get more LeBron James in hope it stays close. Now if Davis is out, this is once again a spot for Cousins to wild out. Because Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson don’t have much of a chance on a guy like Boogie, I’d bet LeBron covers him on the outside in the 4th quarter. He will still get bullied inside by Boogie, though, so it’ll be tough. It’s never easy when the 340 pound 7-foot behemoth can shoot it like a butterfly and then talk about your mother as he runs down the court. Cousins is a match-up nightmare for any team in this league, but one that sports Kevin Love at the 5 is in greater need than most. If Davis is out, play COusins in cash games and tournaments. You won’t be alone, but neither were the people who jumped on last game. I’m sure they weren’t upset about too many people on the train with them.

Jusuf Nurkic
FD $7,000 DK $6,400

To start the year, it’s been Jusuf Nurkic and Tim Hardaway Jr. that are giving me mini heart attacks. At least for Hardaway, he’s on the floor and able to do damage. For Nurkic, the dude just fouls every single second he’s out there. It’s literally tough for me to write this without any expletives towards the guy. I lost a huge H2H by 4 points with a 10 from him, so forgive me. You’re probably now wondering why the hell I would want to play him against Tyson Chandler and Alex Len. Well, for one, variance. Nurkic hasn’t had these foul issues in the past and they will once again fall by the wayside in the near future. We’re (I) am just getting screwed over in the process. Secondly, there aren’t many fouls to be had against the Suns. With Bledsoe going, the main scorer is a jump shooter. Booker doesn’t enter the lane often and when he does, it’s a floater. This is the fastest game on the board and Nurkic is a lock for 1 FP/min. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, a 45 FP performance is no big deal at all.

NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football: Week 3 Cash and GPP Plays

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Cesar Becerra on September 21, 20170 Comments

We close the book on Week 2 of the NFL season after a relatively chalky NFL slate. We saw several of the obvious plays hit like Tom Brady, Ty Montgomery, Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, and even Coby Fleener all hit value

Now we transition to Week 3, which opens up as an unusual ten home teams as current underdogs. The Patriots, Eagles, Panthers, Titans, and Packers are the only home teams that are favored in the main slate. That doesn’t exactly say everything about the slate quite yet; it just means ownership may be more spread out than what we’ve seen the first two weeks. So without further or do, let’s dive in.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan (DK $7,100, FD $8,500) – One of the first things I look for when looking into Quarterbacks are team implied totals. Matt Ryan comes in after a dominant performance against the Packers on Sunday Night Football with an implied team total of 26.75 against the Lions. That’s good enough for third highest on the slate behind only the Patriots and the Raiders. The Lions are currently 12 worst in the league by averaging 236 passing yards per game and are averaging 40 passing attempts allowed per game. This game originally opened up with a 48.5 o/u and has since moved to 50.5, which is good enough for the second highest total of the week. The game is on the road for the Falcons, and Ryan is known for performing better at home, so there is a reason to temper expectations. But in a matchup against an improved Lions offense with a secondary bad secondary, the game flow could mean Ryan will a lot of opportunities to chuck the ball.

Matthew Stafford (DK $6,200, FD $7,900) – Pivoting to the other side of the ball, Stafford has done reasonably well his first two weeks against the Cardinals and the Giants. Two opponents that are tougher on paper than his matchup this week. Stafford comes into the week as a 3 point underdog and with an implied team total of 23.75. Stafford is returning home where he threw for 4 touchdowns and 292 yards in Week 1 against a good Cardinals secondary. Out of all the games this week, this Lions/Falcons game is my favorite for quarterback points.

Kirk Cousins (DK $6,100, FD $7,600) – Cousins has been disappointing the first two weeks. He had a disappointing game on the road against the Rams and was mediocre against the Eagles in the opening week. This week could potentially be a rebound spot for Cousins. He’s at home facing a Raiders defense that has been overachieving the first two weeks of the season. The Raiders are averaging only 200 passing yards per game and have only allowed two passing touchdowns on the year. Last year the Raiders were one of the worst secondaries in the league and did very little to improve that unit this offseason. Oakland does have one of the league’s best offenses in the league, which explains the high o/u at 54 (highest of the week). Give me a low-owned Kirk Cousins against a weak secondary at home, even as a 3 point underdog.

Value QB

Andy Dalton (DK $5,100, FD $6,800) – Andy Dalton has been terrible the first two weeks. In fact, the entire Bengals offense has as they are 1 of 2 teams (49ers) that have yet to find the end zone this season. That being said, Dalton has had two difficult matchups after facing the Ravens and the Texans on a short week. The Bengals opened the week as a 10 point underdog on the road against the Packers, but have since narrowed the line to +8.5. Aaron Rodgers is without a doubt looking to light up the scoreboard after getting run over by the Falcons (again) on national TV, so I expect Dalton to have plenty of garbage time opportunities to throw the ball.

Running Backs

Le’Veon Bell (DK $8,800, FD $8,700) – To say Bell has been disappointing the first two weeks is an understatement. He’s been so disappointing that Elliott eclipsed him as the most expensive running back on this week. But this week could be the week we get Bell at depressed ownership and in a bounce-back spot. He doesn’t quite check all the boxes going up against an improved front seven in Chicago, but the Steelers are 7 point favorites. We saw Bell get 27 rushes last week and also 4 targets, so the volume is much improved after that bizarre first week. We all know Big Ben’s struggles on the road, yet the Steelers are still are implied to score 26 points. This should be a get well spot for Bell.

CJ Anderson (DK $5,800, FD $6,900) – Anderson is way too cheap on DK at 5.8k. The Broncos have shown that Anderson is the feature back while Jamaal Charles has only found his way on the field in passing situations. Anderson owns 70% of the Broncos rushing attempts after two weeks and has produced just under 200 yards (199). He also has 4 catches on 6 targets, which adds to his value on DK. The Broncos are a 3 point favorite against the Bills in a game that could feature both running backs with their pedestrian passing games and minimal projections. Anderson is projected as the third best running pack (point per dollar) on LineupLabs.

Isaiah Crowell (DK $4,800, FD $6,600) – If you drafted Crowell as I did in season long or redraft leagues, you’re probably frustrated with the thought of playing him in DFS. But the truth is, if there is ever a spot to play Crowell, it might be this week. Crowell is facing a Colts defense whose defensive line may have more holes than swiss cheese. This game has one of the lowest totals on the week and rightfully so as both teams have young offenses. Crowell does have the luxury of running behind the best offensive line in the league per PFF.com, so this could be a breakout week for Crowell.

GPP Flyer

Mike Gillislee (DK $5,700, FD $6,800) – Probably the better site to play him is on FD since he’s so touchdown dependent, but that’s exactly why he’s a shot in the dark. Gillislee has scored 4 touchdowns in the first two weeks. He leads the league in rushes inside the 5-yard line, converting each 4 of his carries into touchdowns. Although Gillislee is touchdown dependent, he does own 59% of the market share of rushes out of the Patriots backfield. The Pats are the biggest favorite of the week (13.5), and at home so Gillislee should get a shot at a cheap TD.

Cash game plays not noted above: M. Gordon, K. Hunt, J. Ajayi, T. Montgomery.
GPP Flyers: L.McCoy, D. Freeman, C. McCaffrey

Wide Receivers:

AJ Green (DK $8,100, FD $ 7,500) – I talked about Green’s quarterback up top. I like the idea of targeting this game from the Bengals passing attack with the likelihood that they will be playing catch-up for the majority of the game. Green currently accounts for 30% of the Bengals’ targets through the first two games of the season. He’s seen 18 targets and has caught 10 of them for 141 yards. He has yet to find the end zone, but as I mentioned with Dalton, they have had two tough matchups. This week they go up against a Packers secondary that got torched by Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu in really what was only one-half of competitive football. The Packers rank 18th in the league in FP allowed to opposing WR by allowing 18 points through the first two weeks. I can see Green getting one, possibly two touchdowns in garbage time.

Michael Crabtree (DK $7,400, FD $7,700) – I really thought that Amari Cooper was going to peak this season and Crabtree was going to begin declining. That clearly wasn’t the case last week when Crabtree scored 3 times on 6 targets, while Cooper only saw 5. I still think this may happen, but at least for this week, Crabtree might be the play over Cooper again. The big reason is that I expect Josh Norman to spend most of his time against Cooper, which would leave Crabtree lined up against Bashaud Breeland who currently has a PFF grade of 67.2. If Crabtree does face Breeland throughout the game, he should be able to find the end zone again.

Value

Rashard Higgins (DK $4,000, FD $5,100) – Higgins got a lot more playing time once the Brown’s top receiver Corey Coleman left the game. Coleman was eventually placed on IR and Higgins looks to be the biggest beneficiary from the move. Higgins got 11 targets from Kizer and caught 7 for 95 yards last week.

Devin Funchess (DK $4,200, FD $4,800) – With the injury to tight end Greg Olsen, Cam Newton will have to find someone over the middle of the field to dump the ball off. Per PFF.com, Funches is expected to lineup in 2 and 3 wide receiver sets against P.J. Williams. Williams is by far the Saints worst graded corner (42.7) in a secondary that has gotten torched by Brady and Bradford to begin the season. With Olsen out that’s going to open up more targets for the Panthers passing attack. I expect McCaffrey to see an uptick in targets but Funches should also benefit from Olsen’s absence.

** Devonte Adams is practically a free square if Nelson and Cobb are out **

GPP Flyer

DeAndre Hopkins (DK $6,200, FD $ 7,500) – Similar to Green’s situation, Hopkins is likely to find his team chasing a high-powered offense. Hopkins is currently third in the NFL in targets with 13 and also leads the NFL in team target market share 54.2%. It’s amazing how Watson just continues to chuck the ball Hopkins way. The Pats are currently 29th in the league against WR by allowing an average of 27.6 points to opposing wideouts. Hopkins is GPP only because Belichick is notorious for taking away the opposing team’s best weapon, which is Nuke.

Other Middle/Top Tier Options: M. Evans (GPP), K. Allen (Cash), D. Baldwin (GPP), T. Hill (Cash)

Tight End

For the first time this season there isn’t a clear-cut chalk tight end that will be heavily owned in cash games. At least for now. Below are a few of the best options when considering price per dollar spent.

Martellus Bennett (DK $4,400, FD $ 5,600) – Bennett is the tight end that I’m watching pretty closely. As I’m writing this Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have missed practice early in the week after leaving last week’s game against the Falcons. If one or neither of these players play that leaves plenty of targets up for grabs for the Packers, pass catchers, and I expect Bennett to be a beneficiary. Last week Bennett saw 11 targets with both Nelson and Cobb out of the game. Bennett would face a Bengals defense that ranked 30th in the league against tight ends last season.

Jack Doyle (DK $ 3,600, FD $5,300) – Doyle may be the heaviest owned TE on the week considering many DFS players will stick to recency bias and save their money by using Doyle as their value play. Doyle is certainly cheap and is coming off of a nice outing with Colts’ new quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Brissett targeted Doyle 8 times last week and Doyle caught every one of those targets and gained 79 yards to lead the team in receiving.

GPP Flyer

Jordan Reed (DK $5,400, FD $ 6,700) – Reed is limited to a tournament play only because he has missed practice early this week. Reed is listed as questionable which is likely to drive down his ownership. I already expressed my interest in the ‘skins offense in the QB section and I think adding Reed to a game stack for this Sunday night hammer could lead to a big payoff. Reed is among the top 5 TE in targets this season accounting for 20% of the team’s targets.

Cash game plays not noted above: Z. Ertz, T. Kelce, E. Ebron

Gpp Flyer: R. Gronkowski, D. Allen (if Gronk is inactive)

Defense

With 10 home teams as current underdogs ownership is likely to be spread out at defense.

New England Patriots (DK $3,800, FD $4,900) – The Patriots are at home facing the Texans who are implied to score a slate low 15.25 points. According to Vegas, they seem like the safest play. The issue is that they’re the most expensive option on DK and 4th most expensive on FD. If you’re able to fit them in your lineups, you probably should. Belichick will without a doubt have a scheme to unravel rookie QB Deshaun Watson

Tennessee Titans (DK $ 2,700, FD $4,300) – If you’re scraping the bottom of the barrel on defense I won’t blame you. As we get deeper in the week, I find myself justifying using the Titans for a few reasons. They’re home favorites (-3), Russell Wilson’s terrible home/road splits, and the Seahawks’ team total has dropped from 20.25 to 19.75. The Seahawks haven’t got their offense going this season and were lucky to survive a home game against the 49ers. The Titans like to control the clock by running the ball which could limit possessions, which limits scoring

Daily Fantasy Football: NFL DFS Week 1 Cash and GPP Picks

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Cesar Becerra on September 8, 20170 Comments

Quarterbacks:

Daily Fantasy Football - Marcus Mariota - Lineuplab.com

Quarterback is the most underpriced position in both Draftkings and Fanduel. The main reason why the quarterback position is wildly underpriced is that there isn’t a large gap between the top scoring QB opposed to the 12th scoring QB. It also has to due in large part with the fact that their scoring is weighted lower than other positions. QB’s receive 4 points per touchdown and 1 point for every 25 yards gained. If you play on Draftkings they give a bonus for quarterbacks that throw over 300 yards. That may alter your decision making because it makes quarterbacks more reliant on touchdowns in FanDuel than in Draftkings. Now that we broke down the scoring discrepancies, let’s take a look at a few quarterbacks you should be targeting for both cash and gpp games.

Cash:

Marcus Mariota (DK $6,700, FD $7,700)
Mariota comes into week 1 as the consensus chalk quarterback. The 6th highest priced QB on DK and 7th highest priced QB on FD, Mariota won’t be heavily owned because of his bargain price. Instead, Mariota will likely be the highest owned QB in cash games because of his favorable Vegas totals. The Titans come into week one as a 3.5 point favorite against the Raiders in a game that features the highest over/under 50.5. This high over/under gives the Titans an implied total of 26.5 points, good enough for second on this slate only behind the Steelers. Quarterbacks with similar Vegas totals have gone on to perform well in the past. Mariota has had the best red zone touchdown efficiency rating since joining the league in 2015. When you add up all that and include that the Raiders had one of the worst secondaries in the league last season, you can see why Mariota is expected to be the highest owned quarterback.

GPP:

Russell Wilson (DK $ 6,900, FD $8,000)
After a let down 2016 season, Wilson finds himself looking to hit the refresh button. His fantasy production last season took a dip because he only rushed for 259 yards on the season with one rushing touchdown. It’s been heavily reported that Wilson changed his workout routine over the offseason and is looking to recapture his 2015 form this season. Well, week 1 is a nice opportunity for Wilson to put his new offseason regime to the test against the Packers. The Packers allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game last season and did hardly anything to improve their secondary in the offseason. This game opened up with an over/under just under 50 but has since increased to 51, giving this game the highest over/under on the slate. The Seahawks are on road underdogs, and that generally isn’t a recipe for success, but the Packers secondary is bad enough for you to consider taking a flier on Wilson in tournaments.

Plays worth considering in Cash & GPP:

Matt Ryan (DK $6,900, FD $8,500) – The Falcons are tied for 1st on the slate for implied team points with 27.5. Matt Ryan is going up against a Bears defense that is significantly improved in the front seven and new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian could look to air it out in their first game to get Falcon’s fans over their 28-3 blown Super Bowl win. However, Ryan does come with some red flags as he is playing on the road and there truly is no way of telling how the offense will function without Kyle Shanahan.

Ben Roethlisberger ($DK 7,300, FD $8,200) – Big Ben comes in with the same implied team total as the Falcons. He’s playing an abysmal Browns team and is an 8.5 point favorite. Ben will have his full assortment of weapons to his use with the return of LeVeon Bell and Martavis Bryant. The concern here is Ben’s home and road splits.

Running Backs

Daily Fantasy Football - Carlos Hyde - San Francisco 49ers

The running back position is almost always dominated by Le’Veon Bell (DK $9,800, FD $9,300) and David Johnson (DK $9,400, FD $9,400). This week is no different. Both are elite plays and expect to be the highest owned backs in this slate. Now the question is if you can play both of them. The answer is yes. There’s certainly enough value in other positions that allow you to make your lineup construction with these two elite backs. But if you have to choose one over the other I like Johnson over Bell because of the simple fact that the game has a closer spread and David Johnson plays for a Cardinal team that has fewer mouths to feed than the Steelers.

Chalk

Todd Gurley (DK $6,000, FD $7,300)
If you’re looking for a chalk alternative from the two safe, elite backs look no further than Todd Gurley. More of a value on Draftkings than Fanduel, Gurley comes into week 1 in an elite spot. The Rams are currently home favorite against the Andrew Luck-less Colts and have seen the Vegas line shift them from 3 point underdogs to 4 point favorites. With a poor offensive line and Jeff Fisher calling the plays last season, Gurley had a letdown year after being selected as the number 1 RB in most season-long drafts last season. This year the Rams have made some moves to improve their offensive line and also brought in Sean McVay to jumpstart their offense. Gurley should have an ample amount of opportunities to get to the 100 yard DK bonus and could even fall into the endzone.

GPP

Carlos Hyde (DK $4,600, FD $6,800)
If you’re looking for a cheap running back in your roster construction, Carlos Hyde is your answer. With Joe William landing on the IR and Tim Hightower being a surprise cut out of the 49ers camp, Hyde only has to share targets with undrafted rookie Matt Breida. Hyde should be a lock for 25 touches with Kyle Shanahan calling the plays now and his price on both sites could help open up salary in other roster spots.

Wide Receivers

Daily Fantasy Football - Amari Cooper - Lineuplab.com

Depending on lineup construction, wide receiver could be where you really differentiate yourself from the field. The top 3 studs are all in strong positions. Antonio Brown (DK $ 8,800, FD $9,100), Julio Jones (DK $8,500, FD $9,000), and AJ Green (DK $8,000, FD $ 8,400) are all in spots where we can see them have a big game. But let’s take an audible into some plays that people may be overlooking

Doug Baldwin (DK $6,700, FD $7,500)
I mentioned how the Seahawks passing offense was in a good spot against the Packers. The game flow looks to be in Baldwin’s favor as the Packers had the worst secondary in the league last season, and quite frankly their cornerbacks don’t scare any passing attack. Baldwin will face either Quinten Rollins, Davon House, or Damarious Randall neither was graded higher than top 50 of Pro Football Focus Cornerback Rankings.

Kendall Wright (DK $3,200, FD $5,200)
Kendall Wright looks poised to take advantage of a Bears receiving corp that is extremely depleted after losing Cameron Meredith for the season. Although Wright is not listed as the number two receiver behind Kevin White, Wright will be on the field in three wide receiver sets. That may sound concerning, but during preseason the first-team Bears offense ran three wide receiver sets 14 out of their 15 plays, so Wright is a sneaky cheap option to get some much volume. Wright was signed by the Bears after his previous work with offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains. Under Loggains, Wright saw and an average of 8.7 targets per game back in 2013. In a game that the Bears are heavy underdogs against the Falcons, the offense could be throwing the ball more than 40 times opening up cheap targets for Wright to snag.

Amari Cooper (DK $7,200, FD $7,600)
Amari Cooper should be another popular play. Playing in the game with the highest over/under on the slate, Cooper is going to have an ample of opportunities to bring in targets. The Titans last season ranked in the bottom of the league in points per game allowed to wide receiver, and with a duel of Cooper and Crabtree, the Raiders passing game could be in store for a big game.

Larry Fitzgerald (DK $5,900, FD $6,400)
Fitz is a veteran that could be heavily owned in this first few weeks. The one thing about the vet is that he has some drastic splits from the first half of the season and the second. Fitzgerald has averaged 13.9 points in the first 6 games of the season compared to 11.3 games in the second half. The Cardinals passing offense faces the Lions who were 32nd in DVOA.

** Fanduel only ** Terrelle Pryor (FD $6,200) is extremely underpriced in Fanduel. Although his preseason action with Kirk Cousins left a lot to be desired, Pryor should see a massive target amount.

Tight End

Daily Fantasy Football - Zach Ertz - Philadelphia Eagles

Drafting a tight end in DFS is often dependent on the site you play. In Draftkings touchdowns become less important than targets, while on Fanduel touchdowns valued higher than targets/receptions.

Chalk

Draftkings – Zach Ertz (DK $4,300, FD $6,100)
Ertz is the uber chalk on Draftkings. With the Eagles getting rid of Jordan Matthews and Alshon Jeffery expecting to be shadowed by Josh Norman, Ertz becomes the immediate beneficiary of targets from Carson Wentz. Ertz doesn’t have the touchdown upside that others like Jared Cook or Tyler Eifert may have, but his price and volume make him a nice cash play on Draftkings.

Fanduel – Tyler Eifert (DK $4,600, FD $6,100)
Eifert is an example of how site determines what would be the better player. With Green sucking up most of the targets, Eifert is left with minimal targets. Fortunately for Eifert, he scored on over 40% of his targets last season. Although that number is likely to regress, Eifert is at a good price for such a volatile position.

Defense

Daily Fantasy Football - Los Angeles Rams - Lineuplab.com

Los Angeles Rams (DK $3,200, FD $4,600)
The Rams’ defense is in a good spot as a 4 point home favorite against a team that doesn’t have their starting quarterback. The Colts could very much be a train wreck come Sunday, and although the Rams will likely be without their All-Pro Aaron Donald, their defense should be able to handle Scott Tolzien and Frank Gore.

Houston Texans (DK $3,800, FD 5,100)
The Texans are the chalkiest defense with the highest upside. Aside from the fact that they are with the most talented defense in a prime matchup, they get to face Blake Bortles. Bortles looked dreadful this preseason and last year ranked in the bottom-10 in interception rate (3.7%). They are the most expensive defensive option out of the other chalk defense.

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