Doug Martin – Lineup Lab

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 17 – QB & RB

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Mike Barner on December 26, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

The last week of the NFL regular season is here. Every team plays Sunday, so there are a ton of options to choose from in DFS. Here are some quarterbacks and running back who stand out as potential difference makers. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

QUARTERBACKS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 17 - QB & RB

Patrick Mahomes vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $9,500
DraftKings = $7,100

The Chiefs have lost back-to-back games, so they still need to win Sunday to clinch the AFC West and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That’s great news for DFS purposes since it keeps one of the most potent offenses in the league in play. Despite their recent struggles as a team, Mahomes still has at least two touchdown passes in 10 straight games, boosting his total to 48 for the season. This is a stellar matchup for him against the Raiders, who have allowed the most touchdown passes (34) in the league. The first time these two teams met, Mahomes threw for 295 yards and four touchdowns.

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $7,000

With four losses across their last five games, the Steelers find themselves needing to win this game against the Bengals and get a little help to make it into the playoffs. Luckily their part at least sets up well for them to succeed, getting to play at home against the injury-riddled Bengals. Roethlisberger’s home and road splits haven’t been as drastic this season, but he has 18 touchdown passes over seven home games compared to 15 scores across eight games on the road. Not only is the Bengals’ offensive limping heading into their contest, but their defense is tied for the second-most touchdown passes allowed (31) and has allowed the third-most passing yards per game (276).

Josh Allen vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $7,700
DraftKings = $6,000

The Patriots did a good job bottling up Allen on the ground in Week 16, holding him to 30 yards on five carries. Allen again provided inconsistent production through the air, completing 20 of 41 passes for 217 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Week 17 brings a much easier matchup for him at home against the Dolphins. When these two teams faced off in Week 13, Allen turned nine carries into 135 yards. He also posted his only multi-passing touchdown performance of the year in that game, so he’s at least someone to consider in tournament play.

Derek Carr vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,100

It’s been a lost season for the Raiders, but they’ve actually won two of their last three games down the stretch. Even though they won last week against the Broncos, Carr was held in check, finishing with just 167 passing yards. It should be noted, though, that he only needed to attempt 26 passes with the Raiders jumping out to a big lead early. Prior to that quiet performance, Carr had totaled six touchdown passes and no interceptions across his previous three games. In fact, Carr hasn’t thrown a pick since Week 5. The Chiefs continue to have a swiss-cheese-like secondary, which leaves Carr with significant upside. He certainly had plenty of success against them in Week 13, throwing for 285 yards and three touchdowns.

RUNNING BACKS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 17 - QB & RB

Damien Williams vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,900
DraftKings = $6,100

Spencer Ware (hamstring) was unable to take the field again last week, setting up Williams to lead the Chief’s backfield. He logged 73 percent of their offensive snaps, finishing with 103 rushing yards on 13 carries. He also caught all seven of his targets for 37 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs do need to win this game as previously discussed, but it shouldn’t exactly be an overwhelming task against the far inferior Raiders. They might not rush Ware back into action, so if he sits, Williams again has significant upside. It’s definitely a favorable matchup with the Raiders allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (143.3).

Chris Carson vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – CenturyLink Field
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $6,500

The Seahawks have already clinched a wildcard spot, so they don’t really have anything left to play for. That makes rolling with their offensive players a bit of a risky proposition, especially considering the potential blowout factor against a horrid Cardinals squad. Carson does come into this game extremely hot, rushing for 325 yards and four touchdowns across his last three games. Despite not being on the field for more than 59 percent of the Seahawks’ offensive snaps during any of those games, Carson still received at least 22 carries in each contest. The Cardinals allow by far the most rushing yards per game (153.1), so adding Carson to your entry might be a risk worth taking.

Elijah McGuire vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $5,300

With Isaiah Crowell (toe) out for the season, McGuire is the main man in the Jets’ backfield. He hasn’t been efficient in his two starts, turning 32 carries into just 77 yards. However, he has scored a rushing touchdown in both contests and even chipped in a receiving score last week against the Packers. The Jets also like to use him in the passing game, giving him nine targets over that two-game stretch. Don’t expect his efficiency to improve drastically against the Patriots, but he should get enough volume to once again be a viable option.

C.J. Anderson vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $5,400

The Rams decided to hold out Todd Gurley (knee) in Week 16, which opened up a starting role for Anderson. He just joined the team a couple of weeks ago, but that didn’t stop him from turning 20 carries into 167 yards and a touchdown. The Rams are still looking to clinch a first-round bye, but this shouldn’t be an overly challenging game playing at home against the 49ers. If Gurley isn’t completely healthy, it makes little sense to play him. If he does play, it also makes little sense to give him a ton of work. Anderson isn’t all that cheap anymore, but he could still provide value Sunday.

Doug Martin vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $4,400

The Raiders have pretty evenly split snaps in their backfield between Martin and Jalen Richard since Marshawn Lynch (groin) was lost for the season. Martin had his best performance last week against the Broncos, carrying the ball 21 times for 107 yards and a touchdown. While his yardage totals haven’t always been great, he has found his way into the end zone in four of his last five games. The Chiefs allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game (132.5), leaving Martin with some appeal in tournament play based on his cheap price.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 15 – QB & RB

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Mike Barner on December 11, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

Week 15 brings a bit of an odd schedule in the NFL with two games being played on Saturday. That leaves fewer options to choose from for the main Sunday slate in DFS, but there are still plenty of great players available. Let’s highlight some quarterbacks and running backs that could help you finish the day a winner. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

QUARTERBACKS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 15 - QB & RB

Ben Roethlisberger vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $6,600

Roethlisberger injured his ribs last week against the Raiders but was able to return late in the game. Considering he was on the sidelines for a good chunk of the contest, his 282 passing yards and two touchdowns resulted in a pretty good performance. All indications right now are that he plans to take the field in this matchup against the Patriots. Roethlisberger is averaging more passing yards per game on the road this year, but he has 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions across seven road games compared to 16 touchdowns and four interceptions over six games at home. The Patriots have allowed 26 touchdowns through the air, potentially setting up Roethlisberger for another meaty stat line.

Russell Wilson vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $6,700

What a disaster of a performance from Wilson against the Vikings in Week 14. He completed only 10 of 20 passes for 72 yards and one interception. The Seahawks run the ball a ton, which does somewhat limit Wilson’s upside. He’s been able to provide value in DFS mostly based on his ability to provide touchdowns, throwing for at least two scores in all but two games this season. Look for him to get back on track in Week 15 against a bad 49ers’ secondary that is tied for the third-most passing touchdowns allowed (28) in the league and has recorded just two interceptions.

Josh Allen vs. Detroit Lions
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $7,600
DraftKings = $5,800

Allen did not have a good passing game in Week 14 against the Jets, completing 18 of 36 passes for 206 yards and two interceptions. He failed to throw for a touchdown yet again and only has five across nine games. However, he continued to do damage with his legs, rushing nine times for 101 yards and a touchdown. Across his last three games, Allen has 335 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. His lack of talent at wide receiver and overall inexperience may continue to leave him with lackluster passing stats, but his ability to accumulate yards on the ground makes him someone to consider in tournament play.

Derek Carr vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,400

The Raiders pulled out a shocking win against the Steelers last week and Carr was one of the main reasons for their success. He finished with 322 passing yards and two touchdowns, leaving him with eight touchdowns and no interceptions across his last four games. That’s pretty impressive considering two of those games were against the Ravens and Cardinals. He’ll face a much easier task in Week 15 against the Bengals, who have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (274) to go along with 27 passing touchdowns. At his cheap price on both sites, he might be worth considering despite the lack of playmakers around him.

RUNNING BACKS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 15 - QB & RB

Ezekiel Elliott vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $9,000

The Cowboys earned a huge divisional win against the Eagles in Week 14. It’s no surprise that Elliott played well in the victory, rushing 28 times for 113 yards. Not only that, but he caught 12 of his season-high 13 targets for an additional 79 yards. He’s become a significant weapon in the Cowboys’ passing attack this season, receiving 81 targets through 13 games. That gives him immense upside considering he has gained at least 100 yards on the ground in seven games this year, as well. The Colts have been one of the better teams against the run, but facing Elliott is a completely different animal. He still makes for a safe option in cash contests.

Joe Mixon vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $7,800
DraftKings = $6,100

With Andy Dalton (thumb) and A.J. Green (foot) out for the year, the Bengals offense is a shell of its former self. They turned to Mixon to lead their attack in Week 14, giving him a season-high 26 carries. He certainly didn’t disappoint with 111 yards and a touchdown. With fewer weapons to catch passes for the Bengals, Mixon also hauled in five of his six targets for 27 yards. He’s rushed for at least 82 yards in each of the last three games and should get all the work he can handle again in Week 15. That’s great news since the Raiders allow the second-most rushing yards per game (144.5).

Doug Martin vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $4,700

To say Martin was inefficient last week against the Steelers would be an understatement. He was heavily involved with 16 carries but turned them into just 32 yards. Luckily, he somewhat salvaged his performance with a touchdown. The silver lining here was the significant workload that he received and the fact that his touchdown marked his third score across the last three games. The Raiders should continue to give him the bulk of the carries Sunday, which could lead him to a valuable performance since the Bengals have allowed the most rushing yards per game (148.1) and second-most rushing touchdowns (17).

Dalvin Cook vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $6,500

The Vikings offense was awful against the Seahawks on Monday, scoring just seven points. That leaves them with 17 total points over their last two games. Cook was one of the few players who had a respectable performance in Week 15, accumulating 83 total yards and a touchdown. It was also encouraging to see him on the field for 77 percent of the Vikings’ offensive snaps compared to just 20 percent for Latavious Murray. The Dolphins are tied for the third-most rushing yards allowed per game (139.5), leaving Cook as an excellent target in tournament play, especially based on his price on FanDuel.

Jeff Wilson Jr. vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $4,600

Wilson was plenty involved in Week 14 filling in for the injured Matt Breida (ankle), logging 86 percent of the 49ers’ offensive snaps. He only had two targets thrown his way, but he did carry the ball 23 times for 90 yards. Breida has battled various injuries throughout the season and his status for Week 15 is still very much in doubt. If he is unable to play, Wilson would likely again handle the bulk of the work in the 49ers’ backfield. The Seahawks don’t give up a ton of yards on the ground, overall, but they do allow five yards-per-carry, which is tied for the third-most in the league.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 11 – Running Backs

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Mike Barner on November 14, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

The Chiefs and Rams will be facing off on Monday Night Football, taking away two of the top running back options for the main Sunday slate of DFS in Week 11. There are also six teams on a bye, which hurts the overall depth at the position. Let’s dive into to schedule to see which options are still on the board. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 11 - Running Backs

Saquon Barkley vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,700

The Giants won their second game of the season against the 49ers in Week 10 with Barkley reaching 100 total yards. His 20 carries were a season-high, but his five targets were the first time he had received fewer than 10 targets since Week 5. The Giants offensive line has been one of the worst units in the league, which has limited Barkley to 3.4 yards-per-carry or fewer in four of his last five games.

Barkley’s touchdown upside will remain somewhat limited due to the Giants terrible offense, but this could be a week for him to shine against the Bucs since they are tied for the third-most rushing touchdown allowed (12) in the league. They’ve also allowed 473 yards and three touchdowns through the air to opposing running backs. With Barkley’s heavy workload, he makes for an excellent option in cash contests.

Melvin Gordon III vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings =$8,900

Gordon has yet to receive 20 carries in a game this season, but that hasn’t stopped him from being one of the most consistent fantasy contributors. He was excellent against the Raiders on Sunday, turning 18 carries into 93 yards. After recording 3.9 yards-per-carry last year, Gordon has posted 5.4 yards-per-carry this season. Not only did Gordon excel on the ground in Week 10, but he also turned five receptions in 72 yards and a touchdown.

With his most recent touchdown, Gordon has now found his way into the end zone at least one time in every game since Week 1. He’s also just 31 targets away from matching his mark from all of 2017. This is a matchup to exploit against the Broncos, who have allowed 4.8 yards-per-carry. Gordon won’t come cheap, but his workload and efficiency make him hard to pass up.

Christian McCaffrey vs. Detroit Lions
Stadium – Ford Field
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $8,000

The Panthers were beaten soundly by the Steelers last week, but McCaffrey still had a productive game with 138 total yards. He also accounted for all three of their scores, compiling one rushing touchdown and two through the air. He only found his way into the end zone once across his first five games but has seven total touchdowns over three games since.

McCaffrey has one of the highest floors among running backs based on his ability to contribute in both the running and passing attacks. He’s been on the field for 96 percent of the Panthers offensive snaps this season, which is tops among their skill players. That type of usage could set him up with a tremendous opportunity to thrive against the Lions, who have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (132.7).

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 11 - Running Backs

David Johnson vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $7,500

It took until Week 10, but Johnson finally had his first hefty stat line of the season against the Chiefs. Not only did he 98 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, but he also caught seven of nine targets for 85 yards and another score. The rushing yards are obviously important, but it was just as encouraging to see Johnson so involved in the passing game. After receiving 120 targets in 2016, Johnson only had 32 targets across his first eight games.

The change at offensive coordinator might salvage Johnson’s season. After the Cardinals had a bye week to install Byron Leftwich’s new scheme, Johnson looked like the fantasy star that we all know and love. This is another juicy matchup for him against the Raiders, who allow the third-most rushing yards per game (141). His price is already starting to climb, but it’s still low enough for him to have plenty of upside.

Doug Martin vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,500

To say this season has been a disappointment for the Raiders would be a huge understatement. After losing 20-6 to the Chargers last week, their record now stands at 1-8. Their defense hasn’t been good, but it’s hard to win many games when you score 1o points or fewer in four of your last five contests. With Marshawn Lynch (groin) on IR, Martin has received the bulk of their carries. It’s no surprise that he hasn’t scored a touchdown, but he has rushed for at least 61 yards in two of their last three games.

Martin is likely to continue to receive the majority of the carries for the Raiders, but he’s not going to be as involved in the passing attack as Jalen Richard. With the Raiders often down big in games, that doesn’t always work in Martin’s favor. However, even with the Cardinals improved play last week, they still have a ways to go before they can be considered as a dangerous offensive team. The game flow might work in Martin’s favor, which could lead him to a big day since the Cardinals allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game (140.3). They’ve also allowed 13 rushing touchdowns, so this is as good of an opportunity as any for Martin to finally reach the end zone.

Alex Collins vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,400

Collins emerged as the Ravens top running back last year, but his workload has been limited this season. He’s finished with 12 carries or fewer in seven of nine games and hasn’t been much of a factor catching passes out of the backfield, either. That’s not likely to change now with Ty Montgomery coming over from the Packers. Add his 3.7 yards-per-carry to his limited attempts and you get a running back who doesn’t seem all that appealing on the surface.

There are plenty of factors working against Collins in terms of his snap count, but he may still be someone to take a chance on in tournament play. He has managed to record six rushing touchdowns, four of which have come across his last four games. The Bengals have also been atrocious against the run, allowing the second-most yards per game (141.2) and 11 rushing touchdowns. He’s strictly a tournament play option, but this matchup leaves him with some intrigue.

Dion Lewis vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $4,800

The Titans pulled off possibly the biggest shocker of Week 10 with a commanding 34-10 win over the Patriots. It was sweet revenge for Lewis against his former team, but he didn’t exactly shine with 57 yards on 20 carries. The silver lining is the 20 carries, which marked his second straight week with at least 19 rushing attempts. His previous season-high was 16 carries back in Week 1.

Derrick Henry is the Titans preferred option when they get in close, which is the main reason why Lewis only has two total touchdowns. The good news is that he’s significantly out snapped Henry, playing at least 73 percent of their offensive snaps in three of the last four games. Lewis is also the far superior option in the passing game, which is one of the main reasons why he could be someone to play in Week 11. The Colts haven’t played all that poorly against the run, but they’be allowed 71 receptions and 571 receiving yards to running backs.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 11 - Running Backs

Lamar Miller vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,600

Miller has had his moments, but he’s largely struggled to provide consistent production. After posting back-to-back games with at least 100 rushing yards, Miller laid an egg in a favorable matchup against the Broncos in Week 9 by turning 12 carries into just 21 yards. That marked his fourth game of the season that he finished with 3.5 yard-per-carry or fewer. The Redskins have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (90.9), potentially setting up Miller for another subpar performance.

Adrian Peterson vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $5,500

All things considered, Peterson didn’t play that poorly behind a makeshift offensive line in Week 10, rushing 19 times for 68 yards against the Bucs. The problem is, that might be close to best case scenario for him moving forward based on all of the injuries to the line. The Texans have allowed a league-low 3.6 yards-per-carry and just three rushing touchdowns, so there isn’t much of a case to be made for playing Peterson on Sunday.

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 9

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Chris Durell on November 2, 20170 Comments

*Chris Durell*

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 9

For a limited time use code “NLA5017” to receive the rest of the NFL season for 50% off!

Tier 1

I will start with wide receiver Julio Jones in the first tier. Although the Falcons rank in the top half of the league in DVOA pass offense(15th) and passing yards per game(251.1), it has been a disappointing fantasy season for Julio who has just one touchdown and has also only seen double-digit targets twice this season. Now he gets one of his toughest matchups of the season vs. a Panthers team that ranks 7th in DVOA vs. the pass and 8th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. he would be my separation play in this tier but would only consider if you are multi-entering. Both running backs enter this week as favorites but I prefer Todd Gurley on the road for a couple reasons starting with the fact Fournette is coming off an ankle injury. Both the Giants(120.7) and Bengals(111.9) have sub-par rush defenses but looking at DVOA ranks vs. the rush, Gurley has the edge as the Giants rank 24th while the Bengals rank 10th. The final straw is the targets as DraftKings is a full PPR site and Gurley is receiving 5.4 targets per week while Fournette is averaging just 2.9 per week.

Tier 2

Now, this is where it gets really interesting. First of all, we have the most unsustainable form I have ever seen with Will Fuller as he has just 13 receptions this season and seven of them have gone for touchdowns. That is about as crazy as it sounds but he does have one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the league, DeShaun Watson, with absolutely full trust in his skill. He also gets an elite matchup vs. the Colts who have allowed the second-most passing yards per game(290.4), rank 30th in DVOA vs. the pass, and 27th in DraftKings points per game to wideouts. Fade at your own risk! Then we have another wideout in Mike Evans who has been a target monster since entering the league and ranks 4th this season with 9.4 per game but gets a tough matchup vs. a much-improved Saints defense that ranks 4th in DVOA vs. the pass and 16th in DraftKings points allowed to wideouts. It would also be a huge downgrade for Evans should his quarterback, Jameis Winston, miss week 9 as he is dealing with a shoulder injury. Stay tuned. On the other side of the ball is our third choice with Saints running back, Mark Ingram who is in a plus situation as the Saints are currently seven-point home favorites. The Bucs sit mid-pack allowing 111.7 yards per game on the ground, rank 20th in DVOA vs. the run and 23rd in DraftKings points allowed to running backs. Then combine that with the fact Ingram has been red-hot since the departure of Adrian Peterson as he has received 65 carries and rushed for 294 yards(4.5 yards per carry) in the last three games.

Tier 3

Only four options in the third tier but some tough decisions to make as all four get near elite matchups vs. teams ranking in the bottom third in DraftKings points allowed to their respective positions. Mark Ingram was discussed in the previous tier and I prefer him over Kamara who has received 10 carries just once this season and is more of a third-down back who gets work when the Saints are down. That should not be the case this week as they are huge 13 point home favorites to the Bucs who could be without their star quarterback. Speaking of questionable players, Lamar Miller is questionable in week 9 with a knee injury and was limited in Wednesday’s practice. If he plays, he is likely to be the highest owned in this tier anyway coming off a fantastic week where he scored twice. I spoke about Zach Ertz last and how I was fading him in the toughest matchup of the season for him was dead wrong. He continued to be Carson Wentz’ top target in the red and he also leads the league with six red-zone touchdowns, having caught eight of his 10 targets inside the 20-yard-line. This week he faces a Broncos defense who has had a ton of trouble with tight ends ranking 30th in DraftKings points allowed to the position. He is my top pick in this tier.

Tier 4

Now we jump into the quarterbacks and it won’t be easy as three of them(Wentz, Mariota, Ryan) face defenses ranked inside the Top 10 of DraftKings points allowed to the position and all but Cam Newton face defenses ranked inside the Top 15 in DVOA vs. the pass. Looking at each quarterback’s last four starts, only Jameis Winston has multiple 300+ yard passing games but has only tallied four touchdowns in those games and like I mentioned earlier, is questionable to play this week with a shoulder injury. The other high-risk option in this tier is Marcus Mariota who has 830 passing yards in his last four games with just three touchdown passes but is coming out of a bye week and is reported to be 100% after dealing with a hamstring injury for some time now. I am not at all interested in using him in a tough matchup vs. the Ravens who rank 2nd in DVOA vs. the pass and 2nd in DraftKings points allowed to quarterbacks. Like last week, I will turn to MVP candidate, Carson Wentz, who has been extremely consistent with 1,005 yards passing and 13 touchdowns over his last four games. He gets a tough matchup vs. a Broncos defense who hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passer all season but that should only help with his ownership in the tier.

Tier 5

For starters, we can eliminate Trevor Siemian off the list as head coach, Vance Joseph, announced it would be Brock Osweiler under center this week for the Broncos. Andy Dalton will be starting this week but he is also a scratch off my list as he faces the league’s #1 defense when looking at passing yards allowed per game(161.7), DVOA vs. the pass, and DraftKings points allowed to the quarterback. The next option that gets crossed off for me is Blake Bortles despite coming off his best start of the year. He just doesn’t have the targets with Allen Robinson on the shelf and also doesn’t have to force the ball downfield often with an elite defense and one fo the rookie of the year candidates in Leonard Fournette at running back. That leaves two sophomore quarterbacks who are both on the road this week with decent matchups as the Giants(27th) and Texans(29th) both rank near the bottom of the league in DraftKings points per game allowed to the quarterback. Of those two options, I prefer Jared Goff as the Rams rank 10th in DVOA vs. the pass while the Colts sit way down in 30th. While Brissett has the best overall target in T.Y. Hilton, Goff has the better collective group with Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, Todd Gurley, and Cooper Kupp at his disposal. I wouldn’t fault you for playing either this week, but I will be leaning on Goff and the Rams.

Tier 6

Like the previous tier, we can eliminate players and it starts with Kelvin Benjamin who was traded to the Bills and per DraftKings, will not accrue fantasy points this week. Another situation we will have to monitor as the week goes on is the status of Devonta Freeman who suffered a shoulder injury and was limited in Wednesday’s practice. Even if he plays, I will be avoiding as he gets a tough matchup vs. a Panthers defense that ranks Top 5 in rushing yards allowed(81.6 per game) and fourth in DraftKings points allowed to running backs. Wide receiver A.J. Green leads all players in this tier with 17.7 DK points per game but gets a very tough matchup this week vs. an elite Jaguars defense at home and will likely be shadowed all day by Jalen Ramsay who currently ranks #3 when looking at PFF’s cornerback rankings. My favorite play in this tier is Christian McCaffrey who is already getting elite targets(8.3 per game) and with Benjamin shipped out of town, could see even more volume moving forward.

Tier 7

Another tough tier this week as DeSean Jackson may be without his quarterback and also faces a tough Saints defense that ranks 4th in DVOA vs. the pass. The same tough matchups exist for Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Mohamed Sanu who face defenses (Rams & Panthers) who rank Top 10 in DVOA vs. the pass. For me, I will be turning to Tedd Ginn Jr. of the Saints who gets a near elite matchup vs. the Bucs who rank 31st in DVOA vs. the pass and dead last in DraftKings points allowed to wideouts. The consistency hasn’t been there but Ginn is a home run threat and may not even have to face slot corner, Brent Grimes, who is questionable. The Vegas total(50.5) is one of the highest of the week and I am willing to take a risk here.

Tier 8

I will lead off with the tight ends in this tier as they both have shown consistency and upside. Cameron Brate is only seeing 58% of the snaps for the Bucs this season but continues to be utilized heavily when in the game as he has five straight games with 60 or more yards and has already scored four touchdowns. He gets a tough matchup this week against the Saints who rank Top 5 in both DVOA vs. the pass and DraftKings points allowed to tight ends. At the position, I prefer Jack Doyle who is coming off a 100-yard game and his second touchdown of the season but it’s the volume I like more than anything. He is second to T.Y. Hilton on the team with 6.9 targets per week. The two other plays I will be targeting in this final tier will be Panthers wideout Devin Funchess who has now become the #1 wideout in Carolina with the trade of Kelvin Benjamin at the trade deadline. The matchup is a toss up for me as the Falcons rank 12th when looking at DraftKings points given up but then rank 25th when looking at DVOA vs. the pass. Funchess isn’t going to break any long runs after the catch but should see 10+ targets and be a key in the redzone for Cam Newton. The final play I like in this tier is rookie Joe Mixon who somewhat broke out last week after 91 receiving yards and saw his biggest snap count share of the season at 63% vs. Jeremy Hill who seen is lowest at 13%. He also gets an elite matchup vs. the Jaguars who despite being a top defense against the pass, have been awful against the run and rank 32nd in rush yards per game allowed(138.6) and 32nd in DVOA vs. the run.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!