Draftkings NFL & Cash GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 10

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations – Divisional Round

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Mike Barner on January 10, 20190 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

With Wild Card Weekend in the books, the NFL moves on to the Divisional Round of the playoffs this week. There will be some excellent offenses in action, which could set up for a high scoring weekend in DFS. Let’s discuss some players who stand out at each position based on their matchups. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our NFL Lineup Optimizer to help you build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

QUARTERBACKS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Divisional Round

Patrick Mahomes vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $7,000

The Chiefs couldn’t have asked for anything more from Mahomes this season. He not only brought them back to the playoffs in his first season as a starter, but he threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns. There were some concerns heading into the season that Mahomes could be prone to throwing interceptions, but that never really came to fruition as he finished with only 12 picks. He had the highest floor of any quarterback in DFS, throwing for at least two touchdown passes in all but two games. With the Chiefs running game still dealing with the loss of Kareem Hunt, their chances of advancing to the next round rest squarely on Mahomes’ shoulders. Look for him to come through with another productive outing.

Nick Foles vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $5,400

Foles and the Eagles are at it again. They went on the road last week and knocked off a tough Bears team, 16-15. Foles carried over his playoff success from last year, throwing for 266 yards and two touchdowns. Yes, he threw two interceptions, as well, but his overall stat line is still impressive considering his opponent. Now he’ll get to face a Saints team that tied for the third-most passing yards allowed per game (269) during the regular season. At this cheap price, rolling with Foles in tournament play is a viable option.

RUNNING BACKS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Divisional Round

Ezekiel Elliott vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $8,200

The Cowboys don’t have a great offense, but Elliott can cover up a lot of holes. He was the key to their win over the Seahawks last week, carrying the ball 26 times for 137 yards and a touchdown. He was also plenty busy in the passing game, catching four of five targets for an additional 32 yards. With at least 100 total yards in nine straight games, Elliott is a safe bet to be productive. The Rams’ defense has had their problems stopping the run and ended the regular season allowing the most yards-per-carry (5.1) in the league.

Marlon Mack vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,800

Andrew Luck grabs a lot of the headlines for the Colts, and rightfully so. His return to form is the main reason that they have been successful. However, Mack was just as important last week against the Texans, rushing for 148 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. He’s now logged at least 24 carries in three of their last four games, averaging 135.3 yards. He’s also had a nose for the end zone, scoring at least one touchdown in five straight contests. The Chiefs allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game (132.1) and tied for the third-most rushing touchdowns allowed (19) this year, setting up Mack with another opportunity to shine.

Darren Sproles vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $4,400

Oddly enough, Sproles received more carries than any other Eagles’ running back last week against the Bears. He turned his 13 carries into just 21 yards, but that workload says something about how the team views him within their offense. He was on the field for 56 percent of their offensive snaps, compared to 41 percent for Wendell Smallwood and one percent for Josh Adams. With how well the Saints have stopped the run this year, it’s hard to see any of their running backs rushing for a lot of yards. However, the Eagles might have to throw a lot to keep up with the Saints offense, so that game script would seem to favor Sproles. Even at this late stage of his career, he is still a dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield. If you’re looking for a cheap option in tournament play, Sproles has some upside.

WIDE RECEIVERS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Divisional Round

Michael Thomas vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $7,900

Overall, Thomas had a spectacular season with 125 receptions on 147 targets for 1,405 yards and nine touchdowns. However, a lot of his damage came early in the year. He was fairly quiet down the stretch, posting 49 yards or fewer in four of his last six contests. The Saints spread the ball around quite a bit, which sometimes didn’t leave Thomas with a ton of opportunities. With that being said, don’t let that shy you away from deploying him this week. The Eagles secondary is a mess and was torched by Allen Robinson for 10 receptions, 143 yards, and a touchdown last week. Nothing against Robinson, but he’s not in the same league as Thomas. The Eagles have their work cut out for them.

Alshon Jeffery vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,800

The return of Foles at quarterback has done wonders for Jeffery. Before Foles took over in Week 15, Jeffery only had two games all season with at least 80 receiving yards. However, with Foles at the helm, he reached that mark three times across four contests. Considering how banged up the Eagles’ defense is and how well the Saints play at home, there is a good chance that the Eagles are going to have to score a lot to keep this game close. That should lead to plenty of targets for Jeffery.

Dontrelle Inman vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,800

T.Y. Hilton stands out as by far the best receiving threat on the Colts. Behind him, they haven’t really had a consistent producer. Inman hasn’t received a ton of opportunities, but he enters this contest with a touchdown in each of his last three games. He received a total of 15 targets during that stretch and was on the field for 70 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps last week, highest among all other wide receivers behind Hilton. With how poorly the Chiefs’ defense has played, don’t overlook Inman if you need a cheap option in tournament play.

TIGHT ENDS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Divisional Round

Eric Ebron vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $5,500

Ebron was only on the field for 49 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps last week, but that didn’t stop him from catching another touchdown. Even though his yardage production has been hit-or-miss, he’s still a great option in DFS based on his touchdown production. This is about as juicy of a matchup as it gets against a Chiefs team that allowed 1,067 yards and 10 touchdowns to tight ends this year.

Rob Gronkowski vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,600

Are we seeing the demise of Gronk? He scored just three touchdowns during the regular season, marking the first time in his career where he scored fewer than eight touchdowns during a season in which he played at least 10 games. His 52.5 receiving yards per game was also the second-lowest mark of his career. His upside isn’t what it once was, but he’s still an important part of the Patriots’ offense. Ebron is the safe pick, but if you’re looking to save some even more money at tight end, Gronkowski is a viable option during such a limited slate.

DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Divisional Round

Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $3,000

The Rams defense can give up some points, but that doesn’t mean they are a bad option. They finished with 18 interceptions during the regular season, which tied for the third-most in the league. They also posted 41 sacks, led by star tackle Aaron Donald. The Cowboys are by no means an offensive juggernaut, even with one of the best running backs in the league on their team, setting up the Rams with the potential to be one of the better defensive plays of the weekend.

New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $2,600

The Chargers running back situation is concerning. Melvin Gordon has been banged up down the stretch and suffered another knee injury last week against the Ravens. He returned to that contest and is expected to play this week, but he might not be 100 percent healthy. Austin Ekeler was ineffective as he battled a groin injury last week, rushing 11 times for just 29 yards. Playing in Gillette Stadium in the playoffs is no easy task, so it’s hard to imagine this being one of the better offensive performances of the year from the Chargers.

Author Bio:

Mike has been covering fantasy sports since 2007, joining Lineup Lab in 2017. An avid player of both season-long fantasy leagues and DFS, Mike’s work has appeared on numerous sites, including RotoWire, SportsLine and Sports Illustrated. He’s also been featured on ESPN Radio and DraftKings’ nightly show, The Sweat.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations – Wild Card Round

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Mike Barner on January 3, 20190 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

The NFL regular season has come and gone, but that doesn’t mean the fun has ended in DFS. The Wild Card round of the playoffs brings two days worth of DFS contests. Let’s highlight some players at all positions across both days to see who could help you bring home some money. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

QUARTERBACKS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Wild Card Round

Andrew Luck vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $6,400

After sitting out all of 2017, the Colts couldn’t have asked for much more from Luck this season. He helped lead them back into the playoffs with one of the best years of his career, throwing for 4,593 yards and 39 touchdowns. He destroyed the Texans is two previous meetings, throwing for a combined 863 yards and six touchdowns. The Texans allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game (260) in the league during the regular season, so it’s no surprise that Luck has had success against them. It’s no easy task playing on the road in the playoffs, but this is still a favorable opportunity for Luck to be productive.

Lamar Jackson vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $8,200
DraftKings = $5,800

The Ravens won six of seven games after Jackson took over as their starting quarterback, propelling them into the playoffs. Traditional passing numbers are certainly not his forte, which left him to throw for fewer than 200 yards in six of his starts. Most of his value comes from his ability to run the ball. The Ravens give him plenty of opportunities to make his mark in that department, which enabled him to turn 147 carries into 695 yards and five touchdowns. The Chargers did hold him to 39 rushing yards in Week 16, but he countered with throwing for 204 yards and a touchdown. Being a rookie quarterback in the playoffs can be a challenge, but with his ability to run and this game being play at home, his floor is high enough to warrant considering him for your entry.

RUNNING BACKS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Wild Card Round

Ezekiel Elliott vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $9,000

The Cowboys offense wasn’t very productive this season, which left Elliott to record just six rushing touchdowns. However, that didn’t stop him from piling up 304 carries for 1,434 yards. They also turned to him much more frequently in the passing game, which resulted in Elliott finishing with career-highs in targets (95), receptions (77), receiving yards (567) and receiving touchdowns (three). With his immense workload, he may have the highest floor of any running back in play this weekend.

Chris Carson vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $6,800

The Seahawks love to run the ball and settled on Carson to be their lead running back. He finished with six games with at least 100 rushing yards, including each of his last three contests. He also found his way into the end zone five times across his last four games. Even though this is a tough matchup against a stout Cowboys’ run defense, Carson didn’t struggle against them in Week 3 when he rushed for 102 yards and a touchdown. If you don’t want to pay up for Elliott, Carson also has a very high floor.

Gus Edwards vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $7,200
DraftKings = $4,200

Not only did the Ravens make a change at quarterback, but they also made Edwards their starting running back. Alex Collins had a disaster of a year and eventually ended up on IR with a foot injury. With teams trying to contain Jackson on the ground, it has made things difficult to also key on Edwards. Since being named the starter in Week 12, Edwards has amassed 539 yards and a touchdown on 105 carries. His contributions are virtually non-existent in the passing game, but that doesn’t mean you should be avoiding him this week, especially at his cheap price on DraftKings.

WIDE RECEIVERS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Wild Card Round

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,700

Hopkins is battling an ankle injury, but all signs point to him playing Saturday. He couldn’t have performed much better down the stretch, posting 31 receptions for 421 yards and two touchdowns across his last three games. He finished with 11 touchdowns, overall, marking the third time in the last four seasons that he has reached that threshold. The Colts held him to 36 yards in Week 14, but he still salvaged his line with a touchdown. In Week 4, he torched them for 169 yards and another score. Look for him to have another big performance Saturday.

Tyler Lockett vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $7,000
DraftKings = $5,300

With how often the Seahawks like to run the ball, it doesn’t necessarily equate to good things for their receivers. Lockett still had by far the best season of his career in large part because he posted 16.9 yards per reception. He was also one of their main scoring threats, finishing with 10 touchdowns receptions. To put that into perspective, he had nine total touchdowns across the first three years of his career. His price on FanDuel isn’t exactly a bargain, but he really stands out as a great option on DraftKings.

Allen Robinson II vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,600

The Bears had a horrible wide receiver group in 2017, so addressing the position during the offseason was critical. Robinson was their big haul, even though his numbers don’t exactly jump off the page. He was limited to 13 games, but the Bears held him out in Week 17 to make sure he’d be healthy for the playoffs. The Eagles’ secondary has been hit hard by injuries, which contributed to them allowing the third-most passing yards per game (269) during the regular season. Robinson still led the Bears with 94 targets despite missing three games, so he should have a large enough role to be worth considering this week.

TIGHT ENDS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Wild Card Round

Eric Ebron vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $5,200

Simply put, Ebron had a crazy season for the Colts. His role looked cloudy heading into the year, but injuries to Jack Doyle quickly thrust him into a prominent role. The Colts also don’t have great wide receivers outside of T.Y. Hilton, which further increased their reliance on Ebron. He came through in a huge way, registering 13 touchdown receptions. He found the end zone in both games against the Texans, as well, making him a prime target in DFS at the tight end spot.

Mark Andrews vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium = M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $3,500

Even though the Ravens don’t throw the ball a lot with Jackson at the helm, Andrews has actually been productive down the stretch. Across his last three games, he’s caught eight of 11 targets for 168 yards and a touchdown. That score came against the Chargers. None of the Ravens’ wide receivers stand out as appealing options for this game, but Andrews is someone to at least consider in tournament play if you want to save money at tight end.

DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Wild Card Round

Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $3,000

The switch to Jackson was one of the main reasons why the Ravens were so successful down the stretch, but don’t forget about their stellar defense, either. They were stout throughout the year, allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (210) and the fourth-fewest rushing yards per contest (82.9). They also chipped in 43 sacks and 12 interceptions, making them a great option in DFS. They held the Chargers to 10 points in Week 16 and could once again be tough in their rematch at home.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $2,300

If you’re looking for a cheap defense to roll the dice on in tournament play, going with the Colts isn’t all that crazy. They finished with 15 interceptions this season and allowed only 21 scores through the air. They also allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (101.6). Texans’ quarterback DeShaun Watson was sacked a whopping 62 times this year, including 11 times in two games against the Colts. Even if they give up some points, the Colts defense could still provide value, overall, at their cheap price on both sites.

Author Bio:

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 11 – TE/DEF/ST

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Mike Barner on November 16, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

There are six teams on a bye for Week 11, but there are still a lot of quality options available at tight end in DFS. Let’s dig into the position to see which players to target across the price scale. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 11 - TE/DEF/ST

Zach Ertz vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,600
DraftKings = $6,600

The Eagles suffered a disappointing loss to the Cowboys last week, but that didn’t stop Ertz from having a monster performance. He hauled in 14 of 16 targets for 145 yards and two touchdowns. That marked his fourth game this season with at least 100 yards and the fourth time in the last five contests that he has found his way into the end zone at least one time.

With at least 10 targets in all but two of his games this season, Ertz will continue to have a tremendously high floor. The Eagles did add wide receiver Golden Tate at the trade deadline, but Ertz is clearly Carson Wentz’s preferred option in the passing game, so don’t expect his workload to drop off anytime soon. The Saints have been terrible against the pass this year, but they’ve actually done a good job slowing down opposing tight ends. Don’t let that scare you away from Ertz, though. If the Eagles are going to have any chance of keeping up with the Saints offense, it will likely be on the shoulders of Ertz.

Greg Olsen vs. Detroit Lions
Stadium – Ford Field
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,000

Olsen didn’t have his best game in Week 10, catching four passes for just 40 yards. He was only on the field for 79 percent of the Panthers offensive snaps, which was his lowest mark since returning from a foot injury. On a positive note, he did get six more targets and has received at least five targets in four of the five games since his extended stint on the sidelines ended.

His foot injury is something that Olsen is going to continue to have deal with for the remainder of the season. The Panthers have taken a cautious approach with him in practice leading up to games, which has helped him stay on the field, so far. He’s been logging a ton of snaps, overall, and had scored a touchdown in three straight games entering last week, which gives him a nice floor to work off of in cash contests. The Lions haven’t played poorly in pass coverage, overall, but they have allowed 477 yards and four touchdowns to tight ends.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $3,400

The Chargers had a creampuff matchup against the Raiders last week and certainly didn’t disappoint by holding them to six points. They only forced one turnover, but they did record four sacks. That marked the fourth time in the last five games that the Chargers recorded at least three sacks, bringing their total to 26 for the season. That mark places them inside the top-10 in the league in that category.

You can only play who is on your schedule, which has certainly been kind to the Chargers. They recently faced the Raiders (twice), Seahawks, Titans, and Browns, keeping their opponents under 20 points in each of those contests. This is another great matchup against a Broncos team that has only scored more than 27 points in a game one time all season. They’ve also allowed quarterback Case Keenum to be sacked 24 times already.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 11 - TE/DEF/ST

Austin Hooper vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,500

It was an ugly loss for the Falcons last week against the Browns, but Hooper finished with one of his best games of the season. He was targeted 11 times in the game, catching 10 passes for 56 yards and a touchdown. The yardage total certainly left a lot to be desired, but the volume was the key. Hooper has received at least 10 targets in three of his last five games and is already up to 55 for the season. He finished with 65 targets total in 2017.

Hooper has been a bit hit or miss, which is why he should be on your radar in tournament contests as opposed to cash games. The good news is that he’s been on the field for 82 percent of the Falcons offensive snaps, which is tops among all of their skill position players. The Cowboys have allowed 53 receptions, 511 yards, and four touchdowns to tight ends, potentially setting up Hooper for another one of his more valuable performances.

Evan Engram vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $4,100

The Giants may stink offensively, but it’s certainly not due to a lack of weapons. That excess of talent, combined with the poor play of their offensive line and Eli Manning, has left Engram with a lot of games in which he hasn’t done all that much. Even in one of their better offensive games of the year in Week 10 against the 49ers, Engram received just five targets. He caught four of them for 46 yards, which was sadly his second-highest yardage total in a game so far.

If there was ever a game for Engram to have a breakout performance, this is it. The Bucs have been destroyed by opposing tight ends, allowing 51 receptions, 669 yards, and five touchdowns to the position. The Giants made even more changes to their offensive line in Week 10, which proved to at least give Manning a little more time in the pocket. If they can hold up again this week, Engram could be able to expose this soft spot in the Bucs’ coverage.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $3,100

All things considered, the Cardinals held up pretty well against the Chiefs last week. They still lost, but they limited the explosive Chiefs offense to 26 points, which was the first time the Chiefs scored fewer than 30 points since Week 4. They weren’t able to create any turnovers, but the Cardinals did record five sacks. Although they haven’t forced a turnover in either of their last two contests, the Cardinals do have at least four sacks in four of their last five games.

As tough as their matchup was last week, things swing back in their favor dramatically against the inept Raiders who have scored 10 points or fewer in four of their last five contests. The Cardinals have one of the better pass defenses in the league and the Raiders don’t have many weapons left on offense after Marshawn Lynch was placed on IR and Amari Cooper was traded to the Cowboys. At an even cheaper price than the Chargers, the Cardinals also provide significant upside.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 11 - TE/DEF/ST

Eric Ebron vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,300

What a strange performance from Ebron last week against the Jaguars. He was only on the field for 38 percent of the Colts offensive snaps, leaving him with just three targets. However, he cashed two of them in for touchdown receptions and even had another touchdown on a rare rushing attempt. Even though Ebron has been a touchdown machine this year, Jack Doyle is back now and eating into his opportunities. In both games since returning from injury, Doyle has been on the field for at least 73 percent of their snaps. The Titans haven’t allowed a single touchdown to tight ends this year, so if Ebron can’t find his way into the end zone again, he is left with very little production potential.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $2,500

I’m not sure I understand why the Colts are priced this high on FanDuel. They’ve allowed at least 26 points in five of their last six games and haven’t recorded a sack in three of their last five contests. They did hold the Bills to three points in Week 7 but come on, it was the Bills. The Titans have looked much better offensively of late with at least 28 points in back-to-back games, so this isn’t exactly a favorable matchup. Even at their more reasonable price on DraftKings, it still might be best to avoid the Colts.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 10 – TE/DEF/ST

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Mike Barner on November 9, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

Zach Ertz and George Kittle are both playing in primetime games during Week 10, taking two of the top tight ends off the board in DFS. Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players, and defenses/special teams, to target or avoid as you create your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 10 - TE/DEF/ST

Travis Kelce vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,000

The Chiefs scored 37 points against the Browns in Week 9, marking their fifth straight game with at least 30 points. To no surprise, Kelce again played an integral role in their success, catching seven of nine targets for 99 yards and two touchdowns. Kelce had gone a stretch of three consecutive games without a score, but he’s recorded three touchdowns across the last two weeks.

Even though the Chiefs have a ton of talent on offense, Kelce leads the team with 79 targets. His 14 red zone targets are also the most on the team, leaving him with plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy points. The Cardinals defense has been tough against the pass, but that shouldn’t scare you away from playing Kelce. He’s the clear top option at tight end, so don’t hesitate to pay up for him in cash games.

O.J. Howard vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,300

The Bucs have had an unsettled quarterback situation this season, but whether Ryan Fitzpatrick of Jameis Winston has started, Howard has still had plenty of success. The Bucs suffered yet another loss in Week 9 against the Panthers, but they managed to score 28 points. Howard was a big part of their offensive production, hauling in four of six targets for 53 yards and two touchdowns. After a slow start in terms of touchdowns, Howard now has four scores across his last four contests.

Howard has certainly put to rest any concerns about fellow tight end Cameron Brate limiting his production. Outside of a Week 4 matchup against the Bears when Howard had to leave early due to an injury, Howard has been on the field for a higher percentage of snaps than Brate in every week. With the Bucs porous defense often putting their offense in situations where they have to throw a lot to keep up, Howard should remain a great option against the Redskins.

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $3,400

One of the ugliest games in Week 9 had to be the bout between the Jets and Dolphins. Scoring was hard to come by on both sides, which was particularly impressive for the Jets defense considering their offense couldn’t move the ball at all, often putting them in a hole field position wise. They failed to force a turnover, but they did record four sacks, marking the fourth time they’ve posted at least four sacks in a game this season.

Week 10 brings the dream matchup against the Bills. If you’re looking for a good cash option in just about any week, check to see who is playing the Bills. The Bills aren’t sure who is going to start at quarterback in this game, but regardless of who it is, none of their options are all that appealing. They have very little talent on offense, anyway, setting up the Jets defense for possibly their best performance of the season. If Nathan Peterman is ultimately the one who draws the start, the sky is the limit for the Jets.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 10 - TE/DEF/ST

David Njoku vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $4,200

After a disastrous Week 8 where he didn’t receive a single target against the Steelers, Njoku was due for a bounce-back performance. It wasn’t an eye-popping outing, but Njoku caught four of five targets for 53 yards in Week 9. That’s much more in line with his season averages since he had received at least six targets in all but one game before Week 8.

The Browns allowed 37 points to the Chiefs on Sunday, which forced them to throw a lot in an attempt to come back. The Falcons aren’t nearly as explosive as the Chiefs are, but they’ve scored at least 31 points in a game five times this year. The Browns should be forced to pass plenty in this contest, as well, potentially setting up Njoku for a productive day considering the Falcons have allowed 42 receptions for 434 yards and three touchdowns to opposing tight ends.

Jordan Reed vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $5,200
DraftKings = $4,400

The decision to move on from Kirk Cousins and bring in Alex Smith at quarterback hasn’t worked out very well in terms of passing production for the Redskins. Cousins had 27 touchdowns and averaged 255.8 passing yards per game last year, but Smith only has nine touchdowns through eight games and is averaging 233.4 passing yards per contest. Of course the year Reed is finally healthy, the Redskins bring in a less explosive passer.

Reed is currently dealing with a neck injury, but everything so far points to him playing against the Bucs. Although he hasn’t recorded more than 43 receiving yards in any of his last five games, Reed could be a sneaky option to consider for your entry. The Bucs defense has been terrible, in general, but they’ve really been hammered by opposing tight ends, allowing 618 yards and five touchdowns to the position.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $3,500

The Chargers had to travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks in Week 9, but their defense played well by holding them to 17 points. That marked the fourth straight game in which the Chargers have held their opponents to under 20 points. They also sacked Russell Wilson five times and have a total of 14 sacks during their recent run of success.

It’s hard to pass up on the Jets against the Bills, but if you decide to, the Chargers might be the next best option to consider. The Raiders offense hasn’t been great for the majority of the season and is even worse now after the traded Amari Cooper to the Cowboys and lost Marshawn Lynch to a groin injury. When these two teams met earlier this season, the Chargers had three sacks, an interception, and a fumble recovery while holding the Raiders to 10 points. Look for them to thrive again Sunday.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 10 - TE/DEF/ST

Eric Ebron vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $3,500

Ebron really stepped up for the Colts when they were decimated by injuries, specifically during an extended absence for Jack Doyle. Doyle was able to return to the field in Week 8 and ended up playing 73 percent of the Colts offensive plays. Ebron saw his usage plummet as he was only on the field for 22 percent of their plays. In the first two games that Dayle played this season, he was on the field for at least 94 percent of their plays in both contests. On the other hand, Ebron was never on the field more than 45 percent of the time. Now that Doyle is back, Ebron’s upside is severely limited.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $3,300

Yes, the Cardinals offense has been a mess this year. However, the majority of their struggles came with offensive coordinator Mike McCoy at the helm. Even though the Cardinals didn’t look much better when they scored 18 points against the 49ers in Week 8, new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich had the benefit of a bye in Week 9 to help install his offensive scheme. The Cardinals still have some weapons in David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, so this isn’t a slamdunk matchup for the Chiefs defense to excel. Since they don’t come at much of a discount over the Jets or Chargers, it might be best to avoid the Chiefs.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 7 – TE/DEF/ST

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Mike Barner on October 19, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

The tight end position has been pretty shallow in recent weeks, but it feels a little deeper for the Week 7 slate. Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players, and defenses/special teams, to target or avoid as you create your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 7 - TE/DEF/ST

Zach Ertz vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $7,100

For the first time this season, Ertz failed to receive at least 10 targets Week 6 against the Giants. He was still heavily involved, though, with seven receptions on nine targets. His 43 receiving yards were also a season-low, but he still managed to salvage his performance with a touchdown reception. This game was a prime example of why you want to pay up for Ertz in cash games. Even if the yardage total isn’t always there, he’s a weekly threat to find his way into the end zone.

Week 7 brings a favorable matchup for Ertz against a Panthers defense that has allowed 28 receptions, 297 receiving yards and three touchdowns to opposing tight ends. The Eagles have been more productive with Carson Wentz at quarterback, averaging 24.5 points in the four games he has started compared to 19.5 points in their first two games without him. Expect Ertz to see plenty of targets again in this contest.

Eric Ebron vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,400

Ebron had a cloudy prognosis heading into the start of the season with another quality tight end in Jack Doyle on the roster. However, Doyle’s early injury woes have opened up a huge role for Ebron. T.Y. Hilton went down recently as well, making Ebron one of the prime targets in the Colts passing game. He cashed in with another valuable performance in Week 6, catching four of seven targets for 71 yards and a touchdown.

With his score last week, Ebron has now reached the end zone in five of six games. He’s also received at least seven targets in four straight contests. It appears that Hilton has a good chance of returning to the field for Week 7, but Doyle will sit out once again. The Colts have attempted the most passes in the league (289), so there will still be more than enough targets available for Ebron even if Hilton does take the field.

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $3,400

The Vikings defense has had their struggles, but they had one of their best performances Week 6 when they held the Cardinals to 17 points, six of which came when the Cardinals defense returned a fumble for a touchdown. They logged four more sacks in that game and have now recorded at least three sacks in five of their six contests. The game also resulted in their first interception since Week 1.

Don’t be surprised if the Vikings pick off a pass or two Sunday facing Sam Darnold, who has thrown at least one interception in all but one game so far. Darnold hasn’t exactly been explosive yet, either, throwing for fewer than 200 yards four times. Things won’t get any easier for him this week with his favorite wide receiver Quincy Enunwa out with an ankle injury. Even though they will be on the road, the Vikings could be in for a stifling performance.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 7 - TE/DEF/ST

Trey Burton vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,300

Burton isn’t exactly a great source for yards. He hasn’t topped more than 88 yards in a game this season and has three outings where he finished with 23 yards or fewer. One of those was last week against the Dolphins, but he did manage to find the end zone in that game. The Bears have only played five games, but Burton has already posted three touchdowns.

The Bears invested heavily in Burton during the offseason, but they have attempted the fewest passes in the league, which puts somewhat of a limit on his upside. The good news is that if the Bears defense can’t slow down the high-powered Patriots offense, Mitch Trubisky might be forced to throw the ball more. Burton may see a couple extra targets in this game, as a result, making him an intriguing option in tournament play.

David Njoku vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $5,700
DraftKings = $4,200

Njoku received a season-high 12 targets in the Browns blowout loss to the Chargers in Week 6, finishing with seven catches for 55 yards and his first touchdown of the season. He’s been a big part of the Browns offense, receiving at least seven targets in all but one game. Josh Gordon may not have been playing well, but his departure was a positive one when for Njoku’s value for the rest of the year.

Baker Mayfield hasn’t played great since taking over at quarterback, but this could be the week he has a breakout performance. The Bucs have allowed the most passing yards per game (356) and are tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed (16) in the league. I actually believe Njoku has a higher upside this week than Burton, making him an even better play when you consider he’s slightly cheaper than Burton on both sites.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $3,300

If you’re looking at past performances by the Colts to try and gain some confidence in playing their defense this week, let me save you some time. They’ve been bad. Teams have scored at least 31 points against them in each of their last three games, one of which came against a Jets offense that isn’t exactly loaded with talent.

The reason why you should consider the Colts defense for Week 7 is because of how putrid the Bills are on offense. Things are only going to get worse for them Sunday with Josh Allen out due to an elbow injury. His backup Nathan Peterman has been so bad that the Bills are actually going to start Derek Anderson at quarterback, who just signed with the team less than two weeks ago. Even with how poorly they have played, this is a great spot for the Colts to thrive on defense.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 7 - TE/DEF/ST

Greg Olsen vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $4,400

Olsen had been out since Week 1 with a foot injury, but he made his return last Sunday against the Redskins. The Panthers certainly weren’t cautious with him, putting him on the field for 98% of their offensive snaps. Olsen wasn’t terrible, but he wasn’t great, either, with four catches on seven targets for 48 yards. Olsen has decided to put off foot surgery at this time, but who knows if he’s going to hold up for the rest of the season. This is a tough matchup against the Eagles, who have only allowed 19 receptions to opposing tight ends.

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $3,500

Injuries have put a damper on the Rams defense, causing them to allow at least 23 points in each of their last four games. They only picked off one pass during that four-game stretch, as well. The 49ers have dealt with more than their fair share of injuries on offense, but C.J. Beathard has been much improved from last year. In each of his three starts, he has at least 248 passing yards and two touchdowns. He has been turnover prone, but the 49ers might be able to put up some points in this contest. That limits the upside for the Rams defense, so it might not be worth paying the premium required to get them into your entry.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 – TE/DEF/ST

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Mike Barner on October 12, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

If you thought the tight end was position was thin in previous weeks, buckle up for the Week 6 schedule. The Eagles, Chiefs, and Patriots all won’t play during the main slate in DFS, leaving the position lacking the majority of the usual top options. Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players, and defenses/special teams, to target or avoid as you create your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 - TE/DEF/ST

Eric Ebron vs. New York Jets
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,400

With Jack Doyle out with an injury, it’s been the Ebron show in Indianapolis. He had a monster performance Week 5 against the Patriots, catching nine of 15 targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns. It marked the third straight week that Ebron has received at least 10 targets and the fourth time in five games that he has scored at least one touchdown. The yardage total was a bit out of character for him, though, considering he hadn’t posted more than 51 yards in any of his previous three contests.

Not only is Doyle likely to sit out again Sunday, but so is the Colts top wide receiver in T.Y. Hilton. Ebron should again get all the targets he can handle and be one of their main weapons when they get into the red zone. He now has 12 red zone targets this season, which is double Hilton’s mark of six that is second-highest on the team. The Jets have defended tight ends well this season, but Ebron should still get enough targets to provide a high floor. He did sit out practice both Wednesday and Thursday to rest a few injuries, but there has been no indication that he won’t play at this time.

Kyle Rudolph vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,400

There is no question that Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are the main offensive weapons in the Vikings passing attack. The two have combined for 121 targets and 84 receptions. That being said, the Vikings have been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league. Rudolph hasn’t had any eye-popping performances yet, but he does have at least five targets and at least five receptions in four straight games.

His worst yardage total came in Week 1 when he only caught one pass for 11 yards, but that one reception was for a touchdown. He’s finished with at least 41 yards in all four games since and has significant touchdown upside. Ebron might have the highest floor of any tight end this week, but Rudolph has also been a steady contributor who is worth considering in cash games.

Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $4,500
DraftKings = $3,300

The Bears defense comes into this game well rested after a bye week. They had a very impressive performance Week 4 against a Bucs offense that entered the game firing on all cylinders, holding them to 10 points. Not only did they force four sacks, but they also recorded three interceptions. The Bears have posted at least four sacks and one interception in each of their four contests so far.

The Dolphins started the season 3-0, but have come back to reality with losses in both of their last two games. They scored a combined 24 points in those matchups as Ryan Tannehill threw only one touchdown compared to two interceptions. With the way the Bears are able to put pressure on the quarterback, this game could be a nightmare for the Dolphins.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 - TE/DEF/ST

David Njoku vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $5,500
DraftKings = $3,800

Njoku continued to show a good relationship with Baker Mayfield during Week 5 in a win over the Ravens. The Ravens have a strong defense, but Njoku was able to catch six of 11 targets for a season-high 69 yards. Njoku is still looking for his first touchdown of the season, but he’s clearly established himself as one of the top pass-catchers in the Browns offense by receiving at least seven targets in four of five games.

Njoku has been on the field for 83% of the Browns offensive plays, which is second on the team only to Jarvis Landry (92%). His 34 targets are also second to Landry and just ahead of Antonio Callaway (30). The Browns offense is more explosive with Mayfield at quarterback, which should lead to added opportunities for Njoku again Sunday.

Vance McDonald vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $3,400

McDonald laid an egg last week in what looked like a chance to shine against a bad Falcons secondary. He finished with one reception on two targets for six yards after receiving at least three targets in each of his first three games. The Steelers were up big after three quarters, which led to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to attempt a season-low 29 passes. He had averaged 46.5 pass attempts across his first four games.

On a positive note, McDonald was on the field for 61% of the Steelers offensive plays last week, which was actually higher than his season average of 54%. Some people may be wary of playing him this week after his poor stat line, but don’t overlook him in tournament play. He still carries upside and can help with your budget at this cheap price.

Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $2,600

The Bengals scored 27 points against the Dolphins last week, but they were aided by two defensive scores. The Dolphins defense didn’t play all that poorly and their special teams provided a punt return for a touchdown. With yet another interception, the Dolphins have at least one pick in each game this year and lead the league with 10 overall.

The Dolphins have done a good job keeping opposing teams out of the end zone, although they haven’t exactly faced a bunch of offensive juggernauts with some of their opponents including the Titans, Jets, and Raiders. The Bears may have exploded for 48 points in Week 4, but quarterback Mitch Trubisky had two touchdowns and three interceptions over the first three weeks. Both defenses in this game could be strong plays with the Dolphins being the more cost-effective option to consider in tournament play.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 - TE/DEF/ST

Greg Olsen vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $4,300

Olsen reinjured his foot in the first game of the season and hasn’t played since. He’s decided to put off surgery in an attempt to play again this year and is trending in the right direction to return for Week 6. As one of their top pass-catching options, his return would be a welcome sight for the Panthers’ offense. However, it’s unclear how much he’ll be able to play in this contest and how effective he’ll be in his first game in over a month. It might be best to take a wait and see approach with Olsen before rostering him in DFS.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $2,700

The Chargers had by far their best defensive showing of the season last week by holding the Raiders to 10 points. They had allowed an average of 30 points over their first four games. They have faced two great offenses in the Chiefs and Rams, but their other three games this year have come against poor offensive teams in the Bills, 49ers, and Raiders. The Browns now have a more explosive element to their offense with Mayfield and they have a few talented options around him, so it wouldn’t be all that surprising for them to have a strong showing this week. I’d particularly stay away from the Chargers based on their FanDuel price, but they might be best to avoid on both sites.

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17

by Chris Durell on December 29, 20170 Comments

*Chris Durell*

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17

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Welcome to the craziness that is Week 17 in the NFL. There are teams that are locked into their playoff spots or have nothing to play for at all and could very well sit their starters. Even if some players don’t sit all together, they could be limited to a couple quarters at most. Be sure to check out all the information available on Twitter or by a simple Google search before locking in your lineups as this article is written mid-week. Let’s jump in and take a look at each Tier for the seven-game early slate on Sunday.

Tier 1

Ezekiel Elliott returned last week and rushed for 94 yards and picked up an additional 21 yards through the air but unfortunately, the Cowboys lost and were eliminated from the playoffs. This muddies the waters for Week 17 as it is unclear how much usage he will get and then add the tough matchup vs. the Eagles defense that ranks 4th in DVOA vs. the rush and 3rd in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs.

DeAndre Hopkins received his second-lowest target share of the season(6) but still managed to make a ridiculous catch in the endzone to pick up 16.5 fantasy points. This week he gets an elite matchup vs. the Colts who have allowed the third-most passing yards per game(254.8) this season and rank 23rd in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. I am also less concerned with his usage as both teams have been out of the playoffs for some time now and it hasn’t stopped him at all.

The Patriots are locked into the playoffs and have wrapped up the division but still have one game left to lock down home-field advantage through the playoffs with a win so I am expecting another big game from Gronk. He has scored 15 or more DK points in four straight games with three of those performances exceeding 25 points and now faces a horrendous Jets defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass and 24th in DK points per game allowed to tight ends. He could be the highest owned player in this tier but also may have the biggest upside.

The Vikings have also locked up their division but have a big game on Sunday as the Rams, Saints, and Panthers are all breathing down their neck for that #2 seed and a first-round bye. Adam Thielen has been quiet over the last two weeks with just five catches for 54 yards but is having a big season overall with 1,215 yards and could be low owned this week considering he is facing a Bears team that has been pretty good against wideouts ranking 14th in DK points per game. Don’t overlook he and Case Keenum’s ability to produce big-time fantasy points as Thielen moves all over the field and can exploit matchups.

Top Targets in this Tier – Rob Gronkowski, Adam Thielen

Tier 2

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17

Marvin Jones has not scored a touchdown or broke 100 yards since Thanksgiving vs. the Vikings and has seen some decline down the stretch as he has only been targeted 14 times over the last three games and tallied double-digit fantasy points just once. Despite neither team in this game having anything to play for, Jones does get a nice matchup vs. the Packers defense that has allowed the 11th most passing yards per game(232.3) and ranks 25th in DK points per game to wideouts.

It’s a similar situation for T.Y. Hilton as the Colts and Texans have been eliminated and on to next season. Hilton did breakout in a tough matchup last week vs. the Ravens catching six of his 12 targets for his first 100-yard game since week 9 against none other than these Houston Texans who rank 28th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. Look for Hilton to finish the year off strong.

Speaking of the Texans, it was JuJu Smith Schuster getting to them late on Christmas day as he caught six of his seven targets for 75 yards and a touchdown. With Antonio Brown still sidelined with an injury both Martavis Bryant and Smith-Schuster should continue to see high usage in the Steelers defense. The other thing he has going is that the Steelers can still grab a first-round bye with a win and a New England loss. This week they get a winless Browns team that sits mid-pack in passing yards per game allowed (230.7) but rank 29th overall when looking at DVOA vs. the pass. Fire up JuJu with confidence this week.

Another safe play in this tier is Dion Lewis at the running back position. With James White and Rex Burkhead both out last week, Lewis saw the bulk of the action out of the backfield and crushed for fantasy rushing for 129 yards and a touchdown 35.3 fantasy points. Burkhead for sure won’t be back this week and White is still questionable early in the week meaning Lewis could once again be the feature back for the Pats who are huge 15.5 point favorites. The Jets have been pretty good against the run ranking 12th in DVOA and 15th in DK points per game allowed to running backs but the game script in fully in Lewis’s favor here and he should once again see 20+ carries which presents a high floor and ceiling.

Top Targets in this Tier – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Dion Lewis

Tier 3

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17

Tom Brady has been a big disappointment for fantasy lately and a lot of it can be attributed to the run game that has averaged 121.5 yards per game over their last four games. In those four games, Brady has not topped 17 fantasy points once and may not again this week as the Patriots are currently huge 15.5 point home favorites vs. the Jets and will likely lean on Dion Lewis once again.

Kirk Cousins is coming off his best game in over a month throwing for 299 yards and three touchdowns against the Broncos and has topped 15 fantasy points in three of his last four weeks. He has also thrown for multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games. The running game in Washington has been hit hard with injuries which should once again force Cousins to throw it up 30+ times and he gets an elite matchup to do it against the Giants who rank 31st overall in DK points per game to quarterbacks.

Even without Antonio Brown, Big Ben threw two touchdowns on Christmas day making it seven straight games with multiple touchdown passes. Like I mentioned earlier, the Steelers are still playing for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs but without Brown again this week and an elite running back in the backfield(Le’Veon Bell), we shouldn’t expect high volume from the passing game which will limit Big Ben’s upside.

Matthew Stafford hasn’t flashed much upside since having his throwing hand stepped on earlier in December against the Ravens. He has hit double-digit fantasy points in every single game this season but has only hit the 20-point threshold once in his last five games. There has been no word nor is it expected that the Lions will rest their starters against the Packers and that is good news as the matchup is favorable as the Packers rank 25thin DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Back in Week 9, Stafford completed 26 of 33 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Packers.

The Eagles snuck out a win on Christmas vs. a weak Raiders defense but it was almost all credited to the defense as Foles came back to Earth after a four-touchdown performance the week before. He completed just 50% of his passes for 163 yards and a touchdown. With the win, the Eagles locked up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs so it is unclear how much run they will give Foles in a division game vs. the Cowboys. If word comes out that they will let him play the entire game to prepare for the playoffs, fire him up as the Cowboys rank 21st in DK points per game allowed to QB’s and Foles has a ton of weapons to help him hit value(Ertz, Jeffery, Agholor, Ajayi).

Top Targets in this Tier – Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford

Tier 4

The fourth tier is a very interesting one considering four of the five quarterbacks have nothing to play for as their teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Only the Vikings and Case Keenum have something to play for as they look to lock up the #2 seed and a first-round bye. As of Wednesday, the four other quarterbacks are slated to start for their respective teams but Eli Manning seems to have the biggest question mark as to how much playing time he will see.

Dak Prescott gets a tough matchup on paper vs. the Eagles who rank 6th in DVOA vs. the pass and 12th in DK points per game allowed to the position. With the Eagles having already locked up the #1 seed there is a chance they could rest some starters in the second half which would open up Prescott’s upside if he was to play the entire game.

Brett Hundley will get the start and likely play the entire game but the knock on him this week is that two of his top receiving options are dealing with injuries. Devante Adams remains in the league’s concussion protocol while Jordy Nelson was injured in Saturday night’s game and has yet to practice this week. The matchup is also not high on the list as the Lions rank 16th in DVOA vs. the pass and 14th in DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Proceed with caution.

Jacoby Brissett easily gets the best matchup in the tier facing a Texans defense that ranks 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and dead last in DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. The issue with him is that the upside really hasn’t been there as he has just three touchdowns over his last four games while averaging 11.9 DK points per game. If you are planning on using Brissett in this tier, be sure to pair him with his top target, T.Y. Hilton, in Tier 2.

Top Target in this Tier – Case Keenum, Jacoby Brissett

Tier 5

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17 - Lineuplabs.com

Tier 5, which consists of five wide receivers, start with Stefon Diggs who has not only scored in back to back games but has also been much better at home this season. He is averaging just over 85 yards per game(44 on the road) and has scored five touchdowns(2 on the road) while averaging 20.9 DK points per game(9.9 on the road). The matchup is not the greatest against the Bears who rank 14th in DVOA vs. the pass but the good news is that Diggs has also seen an uptick in targets over his last four games with 7.3 per game compared to his 5.9 season average.

As a mirror opposite, Brandin Cooks gets a great matchup this week against the Jets who rank 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass and 19th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. The issue here is that he has trended down with his targets lately with an average of 5.5 over the last four games and the game script will most definitely not be in his favor as the Pats are huge 15.5 point favorites.

After scoring in back to back games, Alshon Jeffery recorded his worst game of the season catching zero balls on just two targets against the Raiders. He and Nick Foles have not shown the same chemistry as he and Carson Wentz did for most of the season. The Eagles have also locked up the #1 seed and although he will start the game, it is unclear how many snaps he and the rest of the starters will see against the Cowboys. Best to fade Jeffery here.

Jamison Crowder played with a hamstring injury last week and seen just 45% of the snaps but came through catching all four of his targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. He has been the most targeted player on the Redskins this season(6.8 per game) and with an extra week to get back to full health should be able to exploit an excellent matchup vs. the Giants who rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 21st in DK points per game allowed to wideouts.

Martavis Bryant also gets an upside matchup in Week 17 against a Browns team that ranks 29th in DVOA vs. the pass. He should also see some added target share this week with Antonio Brown still sidelined with an injury while the Steelers are still fighting with the Patriots for the #1 seed in the AFC. This is one tier that I will be splitting a few a players in multi-lineup contests.

Top Targets in this Tier – Jamison Crowder, Stefon Diggs, Martavis Bryant

Tier 6

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17 - Lineuplabs.com

Zach Ertz has been the most reliable option in this tier averaging 7.2 targets and 15.5 DK points per game but will be hard to trust this week as the Eagles have wrapped up the #1 seed and it’s unclear how much the starters will play this week. The same sentiment holds true for Ertz’ teammate Nelson Agholor who could also see limited snaps. Another big question mark in this tier is the status of Sterling Shepard as he was not present at practice on Thursday and with the Giants having nothing to play for, it is unlikely he sees the field and if he does it will likely be limited snaps.

I talked about the Lions matchup this week with Marvin Jones and the same holds true for Golden Tate who has seen steady targets all season(7.5 per game) and sits with 899 yards and four touchdowns. I do prefer Jones slightly as he gets the better matchup vs. Damarious Randall while Tate, in the slot, will see quite a bit of Morgan Burnett who is rated quite a bit higher than Randall over at PFF. Both are definitely in play if Stafford is going to be playing the entire game.

Like I have mentioned, the Eagles will likely sit most of their starters, at least in the second half which presents an excellent matchup for the Cowboys this week and Vegas agrees as they have Dallas sitting as road favorites. Dak Prescott even mentioned he will be damned to finish the season after last week’s performance so I fully expect the offense to play the entire game and try and end 2017 on a high note. Roll out Dez with confidence.

Josh Gordon has continued to trend down since his return and posted his worst game of the season(4 games) last week in Chicago with just two catches on eight targets for 19 yards. He is getting the targets(9 per game) but gets an even tougher matchup this week facing a Steelers team that ranks 7th in DVOA vs. the pass and DK points per game allowed to wideouts. More bad news as the Steelers also have the #1 seed to play for so you can expect a strong performance against their division rivals.

With Aaron Jones not practicing this week and doubtful to play in Sunday’s finale, it opens up the workload for Jamaal Williams once again making him a nice target this week. He has flashed big upside since taking over as the Packers top back mid-season and posted one 100+ yard game and scored in three straight games from Week 12-14. He will likely see 20+ touches this week in a terrific matchup vs. the Lions who rank 28th in DVOA vs. the rush and 31st in DK points per game allowed to running backs.

Top Targets in this Tier – Golden Tate, Dez Bryant, Jamaal Williams

Tier 7

Jordan Howard has been a boom or bust play all season. He has flashed big upside as he has rushed for 100 or more yards five times and scored multiple touchdowns three times but also scored 10 or fewer DK points seven times. I have a strong feeling that the latter will be the case in Week 17 as he gets a terrible matchup against a Vikings defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game(87.1) and fewest DK points per game to running backs. Probably best to fade him here. Robby Anderson is also on my fade list in this tier as he is not only questionable with an illness but has also done nothing since Josh McCown went down in Week 13. Lamar Miller has been a huge disappointment this season as he has not topped 75 yards once and comes in with three straight weeks without getting to 10 DK points and was out-touched and out-performed by Alfred Blue on Christmas day. Safe to say Miller is also a fade in Week 17.

After starting off the tier with three fades it doesn’t leave many options but there is some value with the Vikings players this week as they have the #2 seed in the NFC to play for and the starters will likely play the entire game unless it gets out of hand. The matchup for the running backs is a tough one as the Bears have allowed the ninth-fewest yards per game(105.5) and rank 9th in DK points per game allowed to the position. Because of this, I lean Jerick McKinnon who has been far and away the receiving back this season with 4.5 targets per game compared to Murray’s 1.1 per game. On the season, McKinnon has 51 receptions for 421 yards and a touchdown. As for Kyle Rudolph, he has been dealing with n ankle injury all December and was once again limited in practice this week. On top of that, he gets a tough matchup as the Bears rank 12th in DK points per game allowed to tight ends. For receiving options, I prefer Diggs and Thielen for the Vikings. SKOL!

I talked about Jacoby Brissett and T.Y. Hilton as a nice stack earlier and another option on the Colts this week is tight end, Jack Doyle. He is tied with Hilton for the team lead in targets(6.9) and gets a terrific matchup vs. the Texans who have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game(246.3) and rank 26th in DK points per game to the tight end position.

Top Targets in this Tier – Jerick McKinnon, Jack Doyle

Tier 8

If Duke Johnson gets in a full practice this week after being limited Wednesday he makes an intriguing option as he has been a nice PPR back all season. He is fourth in receiving among running backs with 68 receptions for 618 yards and three touchdowns. Will Fuller cannot be trusted as he has fallen off a cliff since Deshaun Watson went down before Week 9. Bilal Powell is a nice option here in this tier as he is closing his season out on a high note with touchdowns in three of his last four games and coming off his second 100+ yard game last week vs. the Chargers.

The Colts may not have anything to play for in Week 17 but Frank Gore has a milestone to hit. Via Evan Silva on Twitter:

4 players have rushed for 1,000+ yards in 10 seasons:

Emmitt Smith
Barry Sanders
Walter Payton
Curtis Martin

Frank Gore needs 139 yards vs HOU to become the 5th.

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) December 26, 2017

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17 - Lineuplabs.com

I fully expect the Colts to feed him the ball this week. Another option who is fully in play here is Randall Cobb of the Packers. With Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams very doubtful to play it will open up a ton of targets and Cobb could very well be the beneficiary giving him a high floor and ceiling vs. the Lions.

Top Targets in this Tier – Bilal Powell, Frank Gore, Randall Cobb

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 16

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Cesar Becerra on December 21, 20170 Comments

*Cesar Becerra*

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 16

We’re down to the final two weeks of the regular season, that means that we’ll have to monitor team reporters much closer than we usually would have to on Sunday morning. We could see instances where teams that have already clinched playoff berths/bye rest regulars. And we can also see a situation like the Packers where Aaron Rodgers was placed on IR after Green Bay was eliminated from postseason contention.

This applies more next week (week 17) than this week. But we could see a case where the Eagles get a little conservative if they clinch a first-round bye (PHI clinch a first-round bye with Vikings loss on Saturday). Let’s dive right in.

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With no more Thursday Night or Sunday Night games, we are left with two Saturday games and two Monday Night games this week, but none of those games are on the Draftkings main slate. The Draftkings main slate features a 12-game slate and is Sunday only games.

Vegas

The Draftkings main slate has only one game with a game total over 50. The Falcons visiting the Saints line is currently sitting with a 52.5 over/under. The next games with the highest game totals are the Rams at Titans (48), Seahawks at Cowboys (47), Bills at Patriots (47), and Panthers at Bucs (46.5). Outside of those five games, no other game has a total over 45 points.

Regarding implied team totals, they are headlined by several of the teams I mentioned above. The Pats (29.75) and Saints (29) lead the way with over a four-touchdown implied total, but the Panthers (28.25), Rams (27.25), and Chiefs (27) are not that far behind. Some other teams with decent team totals are the Cowboys (26), Chargers (24.5), Lions (24). The Falcons (23.5) and Jags (23) round out the top ten of teams with the highest implied total.

In terms of game script, we have three teams that are double-digit favorites. The Pats are 12.5 points favorites at home against the Bills. The Chiefs are 10.5 point home favorites against the Dolphins. And lastly, the Panthers are 10 points favorites over the Bucs (this line is very interesting because the line initially opened at Panthers (-4) and has since moved 6 points). Outside of those huge favorites, the Chargers (-6.5), Bears (-6.5), and Rams (-6.5) all opened up as more than a touchdown favorite, but have since dipped below.

All this Vegas Data was taken as of Wednesday night, so I strongly suggest checking back on Vegas Insiders on Sunday morning.

Quarterbacks

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 16

Quarterback pricing is relatively even this week. The top 11 quarterbacks are all priced within $1,000 of each other with Russell Wilson ($7,000) leading the way and Dak Prescott ($6,000) rounding out the lower 6k range.

Drew Brees ($6,500) – It’s tough to choose between the top 5 priced quarterbacks, they are all in pretty good spots. I think due to recency bias Cam will be the most popular among that tier. I’m hedging from the slightly higher owned Cam for a cheaper Drew Brees. I like Brees for the $300 savings from Newton and the fact that his game has a higher game total (52.5 vs. 46.5) as well as a closer spread (-5.5 vs. -10). The Falcons and Saints games have traditionally turned into a shootout over the last three seasons, and Brees has crushed each time. Brees is a perfect 3 for 3 at exceeding his salary at home against the Falcons in their last 3 meetings at the Superdome. I know that the Saints have transitioned to a running team with their 2-headed monster, but I like taking my chances with Brees against Atlanta who ranks 20th against QB in aFPA. I get it that Cam has the safer floor, but when Brees is in the right matchup, he has the highest ceiling of any QB in the league.

Dak Prescott ($6,000) – There’s no mistake about it, Prescott has been awful without Zeke. But now the Cowboys finally get Zeke back after a six-game suspension, so that brings Prescott and the Cowboys offense back into play. Prescott is a home favorite facing a Seahawks defense that ranks 15th in aFPA to opposing QBs. The matchup is far from ideal, but if you’re looking to take a flyer on a quarterback with nice rushing upside, Prescott is your guy. I don’t like him as much as the next guy I mention, but if you’re looking at this salary range, I like his rushing upside.

Kirk Cousins ($5,400) – Yes, this is a bad matchup on paper against the Denver Broncos. But the Broncos aren’t the same feared defense that they were in the past. The Broncos rank in the bottom 5 in the league in passing touchdowns allowed (26) on the season. They still rank atop the league in passing yardage allowed (189) but are at the bottom 6 in the league in interceptions forced (8). Teams are throwing the least against the Broncos (418 attempts), yet 6 of the last 7 QBs to face the Broncos have met salary expectations. The lone exception is Josh McCown who was injured early in the game. I’m not saying you should start Cousins with 100% confidence, but Cousins is at his lowest price of the season and should air it out at least 30 times. Cousins has had some big games at home this season, so I think I’ll take a flyer on him for tournaments.

Cash:

C. Newton, R. Wilson, D. Brees, A. Smith, T. Brady

GPP:

(all of above) K. Cousins, D. Prescott, B. Bortles, M. Stafford

Running backs

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 16

Kareem Hunt ($8,400) – Everyone will pay up for Gurley after his 48 point eruption game. Gurley is always in play, so I won’t write him up for the rest of the season. But a pivot off Gurley to save a few hundred bucks is Hunt. Hunt is only a $600 discount, so it’s nothing too crazy, but Hunt is slowly starting to look like how he started off the season. In the last two weeks under a new play caller, Hunt has absolutely smashed. Hunt in his last two games, Hunt has 24 and 25 carries in each game. In those two games, Hunt has 12 targets and 10 receptions totaling 73 yards. Overall he’s scored 3 touchdowns in his last two games, and now he faces the Dolphins who rank 29th in aFPA to opposing running backs. Hunt is a huge home favorite (-10.5) and in another nice spot this week.

Devonta Freeman ($6,500) – Barring any news about Tevin Coleman, Freeman is shaping up to be the highest owned running back on the slate. Freeman is coming off of his best game of the season where he touched the ball 27 times and totaled 194 yards with one rushing touchdown. Freeman’s workload is expected to remain the same, and he’s facing the Saints in which he has killed throughout his career. The Falcons are road underdogs, but this game should stay close, and Freeman could see another 5 targets in a game that has the highest potential to shoot out.

James White ($4,100) – Searching for value, we might have to land on the headache of the Patriots backfield. It’s always a mystery with what Bill Belichick will do with his trio of running backs, but this week we get some clarity. Rex Burkhead will be inactive, and Mike Gillislee ($3,900) is expected to be active for the first time in 5 weeks and should see all the goal-line work. That leaves Dion Lewis ($6,000) and James White ($4,100) in store to get the work in before the Pats reach the 5-yard line. White has seen a fair share of snaps with 45% over the last two games and has also received the most targets in the past four games (15). White figures to see an improved role out of the backfield and will continue to get targets. I like taking a flyer on him at his $4,100 price tag over Lewis.

Cash:

T. Gurley, K. Hunt, D. Freeman, M. Gordon, G. Bernard, A. Kamara, C. McCaffrey.

GPP:

(all of above), E. Elliott, L. McCoy, L. Fournette, P. Barber, J. White

Wide Receiver

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 16

A.J. Green ($6,700) – Michael Thomas ($7,600) is likely the highest owned receiver and for a good reason. A.J. Green is a nice pivot off the high priced Thomas. Once again, Green finds himself below 7k, but this time he’s a much better matchup than last week. Green faces the Lions defense that ranks 24th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Erasing last week’s tough matchup with Xavier Rhodes, Green is still seeing close to double-digit targets on average and is seeing 30% of the team’s targets. Green has had a somewhat disappointing season so far, but he always has the potential to go off for 20+ points. Green should come in at single-digit ownership and would be a nice pivot off the heavily owned Thomas.

Larry Fitzgerald ($6,800) – Fitz has 10 targets in 2 of the last 3 games for the Cardinals. This week Fitz goes up against the Giants secondary that is very depleted. The Giants rank 31st in aFPA to wide receivers and the Cards are home favorites. Fitz is a bit discouraging considering that Drew Stanton will be under center, but Fitz will continue to see the majority of the targets from the receiving corp.

Josh Doctson ($3,500) – A value GPP shot in the dark is Josh Doctson. I mentioned in the quarterback section that the Broncos rank in the bottom 5 in the league at allowing passing touchdowns. If you are going to take a shot with Cousins, you should consider stacking him with Doctson. Doctson may not be the possession receiver that Jamison Crowder ($5,000) is, but Doctson leads the team with 33% touchdown percent in the red zone. Doctson doesn’t have a safe floor but has a pretty decent ceiling. If he could find the end zone and catch 3-4 balls, he’ll smash value.

Cash:

M. Thomas, K. Allen, J. Jones, A. Green, L. Fitz, J. Crowder, C. Kupp, R. Matthews, D. Thomas, K. Cole, D. Westbrook,

Gpp:

(All of above), T. Hill, J. Landry, D. Funches, M. Evans, D. Bryant, M. Jones, M. Goodwin, J. Gordon, P. Richardson,

Tight End

Eric Ebron ($3,300) – Ebron has been pretty good since the beginning of November. In his last 7 games, Ebron has 40 targets (5.7/gm) and has 32 catches. That’s good enough for an 80% catch rate. During that span, Ebron also has a pair of touchdowns. This week Ebron is going up against the Bengals who rank 29th in aFPA. In a slate that has very little value, I like Ebron to save some salary.

Antonio Gates ($2,500) – Hunter Henry was placed on IR earlier this week, which signals more opportunity for old man Gates. Gates is the bare minimum and provides salary relief to the roster in studs at other positions. Last week Gates caught his lone red zone target for a 10-yard touchdown. At $2,500 you don’t need much to get four times salary.

Cash:

T. Kelce, E. Ebron, A. Gates, G. Olsen, T. Kroft

GPP:

(All of above), R. Gronkowski, G. Celek

Defense

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 16

Carolina Panthers ($3,100) – The Panthers have been on a tear their last two games creating turnovers. In the previous two games against the Packers and Vikings, they have accumulated 9 sacks, 2 fumbles, and 5 interceptions. This week they are huge 10 point favorites at home against the Bucs who are allowing defenses to outscore their implied points projection every time in the past 3 weeks.

Cash:

Panthers, Jacksonville, New England, Kansas City,

Gpp:

(all of above) Arizona, Washington

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 10

NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

by Cesar Becerra on November 9, 20170 Comments

Draftkings NFL & Cash GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 10

Week 10 of the NFL features four teams on bye, and three of the four are teams that we generally like to use players from their offense. The Ravens, Chiefs, Raiders, and Eagles are on bye. Teams that are also not on the Draftkings main slate are the Seahawks, Cardinals, Patriots, Broncos, Dolphins, and Panthers. The slate features three teams that are more than 10 point favorites in the Lions (-13), Rams (-11.5), and the Steelers (-10.5).

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Quarterbacks:

There are four teams implied to score more than 25 points this week, which is generally the mark we like to target for QBs. The Rams lead the league in scoring and lead the slate with a 28.5 implied total. The Lions are second with a similar projection at 28.25. The Steelers and Falcons are both implied to score about 27 points. These QBs should lead the pack in ownership this week a the QB position.

Matthew Stafford (DK $6,800) – Stafford is the third highest priced QB on the main slate and faces the Browns who allowed the league’s worst aFPA (Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed) (20.4) to quarterbacks, per 4for4. Stafford is coming off of a 25 point performance against a bad Packers secondary. Stafford has thrown for over 300 yards in his last three games and has reached value in each of those starts. Stafford is still relatively priced down due to the fact he played on Monday night and is at $6,800. The Lions are implied to score the second highest points on the slate, and because of their running back committee, Stafford typically accounts for all the team’s points. Stafford is a safe cash play and is also viable in GPP’s.

Ben Roethlisberger (DK $6,600) – For $200 less, you can end up with Big Ben who is in a great spot this week. He goes up against a Colts defense that has been vulnerable to opposing quarterbacks when their team was implied to score more than 24 points. The Colts rank 25th in the league in aFPA, per 4for4 and Roethlisberger, is coming off of a bye. My concern here with Ben as a cash play is that the Steelers are on the road. Ben historically struggles on the road and quite frankly hasn’t been good this season for DFS. Ben has only hit value once this season but comes in with the most upside of all the quarterbacks. I’d use Ben as a GPP play only and find the extra $200 to get up to Stafford.

Value Play

Marcus Mariota (DK, $5,800) – An exciting value play is Marcus Mariota. I always like playing Mariota for his rushing upside, and now that he has his Chris Davis back he has more weapons at his disposal. Mariota goes up against a Bengals defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in aFPA. He’s failed to meet value five of his last six games, but the bright side is that you get him at a $600 discount. At $5,800 he only needs 17 points to hit value, and we’ve seen Mariota hit that earlier this season with Davis on the field. Mariota is a sneaky value GPP play that can help you fit in stud running backs.

Cash game plays:

M. Stafford, D. Prescott, T. Taylor, M. Ryan

Gpp plays:

(all of the above) B. Roethlisberger, M. Mariota, E. Manning

Running Backs:

This is a FANTASTIC week to pay up for running backs! Le’Veon Bell is the top-priced back at $9,800 on the road. Elliott and Gurley follow with an $8,800 and $8,700 price tag, respectfully. And then we have a slight drop off in price with Fournette ($8,400) and McCoy ($8,300). If I’m ranking these, I’d go Elliott, Gurley, Bell, McCoy, Fournette.

Ezekiel Elliott (DK $8,800) – Elliott again avoided suspension for yet another week. While that’s great for DFS, it’s a huge headache for season long. Fortunately, this write up is for DFS and Zeke is in another great spot. Zeke failed to reach value last week against the Chiefs, but outside of last week, he’s been a monster the two weeks before that. Zeke has 88 touches the past three weeks and has six touchdowns to show for the volume. This week he’s going up against the Falcons who allow the 6th most points to opposing running backs in PPR formats. They just let Christian McCaffrey score 20.4 PPR. That’s why I like Elliott; the Falcons are among the worst defenses in the league to give up points to pass-catching running backs. However, for Elliott, there is a concern being that he only has five targets and two catches in the last three games. I like Elliott more for GPP’s, but Gurley is by far the safer cash game play. I just have a feeling that the game flow could benefit Zeke getting around 35 touches.

Todd Gurley (DK $8,700) – If you like to go for trends then, Gurley is the obvious play over Zeke. Gurley checks all the boxes you’d want for a running back. He’s at home, favored by 11.5 points, and his team is implied to score the most points on the slate. Gurley has seen 12 targets out of the backfield and has caught seven passes for 97 yards. If there’s any concern here is that Gurley’s matchup is tough on paper. The Texans have allowed the least PPR fantasy points to running backs this season (15.7). The Texans rank second behind the Vikings in allowing opposing running backs to reach value with a -5.7 +/- rating per Fantasy Labs. The matchup is tough, but the Rams could get up early and feed Gurley so I can see him getting 25-30 targets.

Jordan Howard (DK $6,100) – Jordan Howard has received a lot of volume in the last four weeks. Howard has received 99 carries and has gained 410 yards in that four-week span. He’s getting a lot of work for a back at 6k and should eclipse 25+ touches. The issue with Howard is that he’s not very active on the receiving end. But in this case, I’m okay with giving up that receiving equity to gain the rushing attempts against a Packers defense that has given up the 10th most rushing TDs. Howard is a nice cash game play as a home favorite.

Carlos Hyde (DK $6,300) – Sticking around the same price range, Carlos Hyde has also been getting an uptick in touches since their rookie quarterback took over. Last week Hyde went for 4x value when he had a team-high 11 targets and caught nine balls for 84 yards to go along with his 12 carries. The 49ers pass blocking is terrible, and they rank in the top 10 in run blocking. In a game that should remain close, the 49ers could lean on Hyde over Bethard’s arm against the Giants who rank 21st in aFPA to running backs.

Bilal Powell (DK $4,000) – Forte missed practice on Wednesday. If Forte is out, Powell will see an uptick in snaps and targets. He’s your ideal back in a PPR format so if Forte’s limited he’s worth a shot.

Cash:

E. Elliott, T. Gurley, L. Fournette, J. Howard, O. Darkwa

Gpp:

(all of above) L. Bell, L. McCoy, L. Fournette, M. Gordon, C. McCaffery, M. Ingram, T. Rawls

Wide Receiver:

Julio Jones (DK, $8,000) – Seriously, what is up with Julio this year? I knew the Falcons offense would regress without Kyle Shanahan, but I did not expect Julio to only have one touchdown through week 10. Last week was Julio’s best game in terms of yardage. He saw double-digit targets (12) for only the 3rd time this season and caught half of his targets for 118 yards. The Cowboys rank 24th in the league in aFPA allowed to wide receivers so if Julio is going to get going you’d expect it to come in a home game that could go back and forth. This game has the highest over/under on the slate so it also has the potential to shoot out.

Golden Tate (DK $6,800) & Marvin Jones Jr. (DK $6,200) – If we expect Stafford to be the highest owned quarterback on the slate, it’s not a bad idea to bring it back with his two primary receivers. We saw Jones go off against the Packers on Monday night and his price does not reflect it, jumping up only $700. Jones actually leads the team in targets the past 3 games with 44 and Tate is second with 32. Tate is more of the slot receiver that racks up PPR points, while Jones is emerging as the bigger red zone threat. Both are in play here against a Browns defense that doesn’t scare me.

Robert Woods (DK $5,000) – Can I catch lightning in a bottle two weeks in a row? I’m not sure. But the Rams receivers are in a decent spot against the Texans who rank 29th in the league in aFPA to wide receivers. Over the past three games, Woods has taken over the target share for the Rams passing offense. Woods leads the wide receivers with 27 targets, followed by Cooper Kupp with 26 and over-rated Sammy Watkins has 16 in the past three weeks. There isn’t much separation, but Woods has returned value his last four games. The problem is that I will likely get my exposure to this high team total with Gurley and Woods is $1,300 more expensive than the past four games.

Value Receivers (I like these value receivers quite a bit)

Adam Humphries (DK $3,100) – He’s the T.Y. Hilton of this week. Nearly the stone minimum with an increase of snap count and a potential increase in targets with Mike Evans suspended for this game. I’m not sure if he’ll be popular, yet but he’s a clear value play to punt at this position. I’m hesitant because Ryan Fitzpatrick will be throwing him the ball and their team total is very low at 20 points.

Corey Davis (DK $4,000) – I’m a fan of Corey Davis for the talent he has. He had a very promising first week of the season, receiving ten targets and catching more than half of those but his progression was slowed down by injury. Last week he returned and played 75% of the snaps. He received five targets and caught two passes. I expect Davis to be on the field more and if you’re playing Mariota, why not stack him with Davis for some salary relief.

Marqise Lee (DK $4,100) – Lee has been the biggest beneficiary once Allen Robinson went down. Since week 2, Lee leads the team in targets with 54 and is averaging over seven targets per game. This week he faces the Chargers who are 17th in aFPA to wide receivers.

Cash:

A. Brown, J. Julio, G. Tate/M. Jones, A. Thielen, A. Humphries, M. Lee

Gpp:

D. Hopkins, D. Bryant, S. Diggs, J. Kearse, R. Woods, J. Smith-Schuster, S. Shepard

Tight End:

Eric Ebron (DK $3,100) – Again, back to the Lions passing attack. But this is just following my general rule of thumb. Which team is playing the Browns? Which tight end is starting for them? Play that tight end. Ebron has only scored once this season, but the Browns have given up 6 to tight ends this season.

Garrett Celek (DK $2,500) – Starting tight end George Kittle has already been ruled out for this game, pushing Celek into the starting lineup. In 3 games since starting for the 49ers, Cj Beathard has targeted his tight ends 18 times. The Giants are second to last behind the Browns for most aFPA to tight ends.

Cash:

E. Engram, C. Brate, E. Ebron, G. Celek

Gpp:

V. Davis, D. Walker, H. Henry,

Defense:

Defenses are the most volatile picks in a DFS lineup; I often recommend going with whatever is best for your roster construction. This week there are three teams as big favorites and are viable plays. The Browns, Packers, Colts, Texans, Bengals, Chargers, 49ers, and Bucs are all implied to score less than 20 points. Targeting any one of their opponents should be fine for a defense to play.

Cash:

Tennessee, Los Angeles, Chicago, Detroit

Gpp:

Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, New York Giants

Tag Archives

QUARTERBACKS

Patrick Mahomes vs. Indianapolis Colts Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium FanDuel = $9,000 DraftKings = $7,000

Nick Foles vs. New Orleans Saints Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome FanDuel = $7,400 DraftKings = $5,400

RUNNING BACKS

Ezekiel Elliott vs. Los Angeles Rams Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum FanDuel = $8,700 DraftKings = $8,200

Marlon Mack vs. Kansas City Chiefs Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium FanDuel = $7,300 DraftKings = $5,800

Darren Sproles vs. New Orleans Saints Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome FanDuel = $5,400 DraftKings = $4,400

WIDE RECEIVERS

Michael Thomas vs. Philadelphia Eagles Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome FanDuel = $8,400 DraftKings = $7,900

Alshon Jeffery vs. New Orleans Saints Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome FanDuel = $7,300 DraftKings = $5,800

Dontrelle Inman vs. Kansas City Chiefs Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium FanDuel = $6,200 DraftKings = $4,800

TIGHT ENDS

Eric Ebron vs. Kansas City Chiefs Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium FanDuel = $6,600 DraftKings = $5,500

Rob Gronkowski vs. Los Angeles Chargers Stadium – Gillette Stadium FanDuel = $6,200 DraftKings = $4,600

DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS

Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum FanDuel = $5,000 DraftKings = $3,000

New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers Stadium – Gillette Stadium FanDuel = $4,700 DraftKings = $2,600

QUARTERBACKS

Andrew Luck vs. Houston Texans Stadium – NRG Stadium FanDuel = $8,000 DraftKings = $6,400

Lamar Jackson vs. Los Angeles Chargers Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium FanDuel = $8,200 DraftKings = $5,800

RUNNING BACKS

Ezekiel Elliott vs. Seattle Seahawks Stadium – AT&T Stadium FanDuel = $8,800 DraftKings = $9,000

Chris Carson vs. Dallas Cowboys Stadium – AT&T Stadium FanDuel = $7,500 DraftKings = $6,800

Gus Edwards vs. Los Angeles Chargers Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium FanDuel = $7,200 DraftKings = $4,200

WIDE RECEIVERS

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Indianapolis Colts Stadium – NRG Stadium FanDuel = $8,800 DraftKings = $8,700

Tyler Lockett vs. Dallas Cowboys Stadium – AT&T Stadium FanDuel = $7,000 DraftKings = $5,300

Allen Robinson II vs. Philadelphia Eagles Stadium – Soldier Field FanDuel = $6,500 DraftKings = $5,600

TIGHT ENDS

Eric Ebron vs. Houston Texans Stadium – NRG Stadium FanDuel = $6,600 DraftKings = $5,200

Mark Andrews vs. Los Angeles Chargers Stadium = M&T Bank Stadium FanDuel = $5,900 DraftKings = $3,500

DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS

Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium FanDuel = $4,900 DraftKings = $3,000

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Stadium – NRG Stadium FanDuel = $3,700 DraftKings = $2,300

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

Zach Ertz vs. New Orleans Saints Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome FanDuel = $7,600 DraftKings = $6,600

Greg Olsen vs. Detroit Lions Stadium – Ford Field FanDuel = $6,500 DraftKings = $5,000

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Stadium – StubHub Center FanDuel = $4,600 DraftKings = $3,400

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

Austin Hooper vs. Dallas Cowboys Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium FanDuel = $6,000 DraftKings = $4,500

Evan Engram vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stadium – MetLife Stadium FanDuel = $5,800 DraftKings = $4,100

Arizona Cardinals vs. Oakland Raiders Stadium – State Farm Stadium FanDuel = $4,000 DraftKings = $3,100

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Eric Ebron vs. Tennessee Titans Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium FanDuel = $6,000 DraftKings = $4,300

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium FanDuel = $4,000 DraftKings = $2,500

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

Travis Kelce vs. Arizona Cardinals Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium FanDuel = $8,000 DraftKings = $7,000

O.J. Howard vs. Washington Redskins Stadium – Raymond James Stadium FanDuel = $6,500 DraftKings = $5,300

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Stadium – MetLife Stadium FanDuel = $4,900 DraftKings = $3,400

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

David Njoku vs. Atlanta Falcons Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium FanDuel = $5,400 DraftKings = $4,200

Jordan Reed vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stadium – Raymond James Stadium FanDuel = $5,200 DraftKings = $4,400

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders Stadium – Oakland Alameda County Coliseum FanDuel = $4,700 DraftKings = $3,500

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Eric Ebron vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium FanDuel = $5,400 DraftKings = $3,500

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Arizona Cardinals Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium FanDuel = $4,600 DraftKings = $3,300

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

Zach Ertz vs. Carolina Panthers Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field FanDuel = $7,500 DraftKings = $7,100

Eric Ebron vs. Buffalo Bills Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium FanDuel = $6,800 DraftKings = $5,400

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets Stadium – MetLife Stadium FanDuel = $4,600 DraftKings = $3,400

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

Trey Burton vs. New England Patriots Stadium – Soldier Field FanDuel = $6,000 DraftKings = $4,300

David Njoku vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stadium – Raymond James Stadium FanDuel = $5,700 DraftKings = $4,200

Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium FanDuel = $4,100 DraftKings = $3,300

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Greg Olsen vs. Philadelphia Eagles Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field FanDuel = $5,900 DraftKings = $4,400

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers Stadium – Levi’s Stadium FanDuel = $5,000 DraftKings = $3,500

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

Eric Ebron vs. New York Jets Stadium – MetLife Stadium FanDuel = $6,500 DraftKings = $5,400

Kyle Rudolph vs. Arizona Cardinals Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium FanDuel = $6,200 DraftKings = $4,400

Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium FanDuel = $4,500 DraftKings = $3,300

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

David Njoku vs. Los Angeles Chargers Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium FanDuel = $5,500 DraftKings = $3,800

Vance McDonald vs. Cincinnati Bengals Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium FanDuel = $4,600 DraftKings = $3,400

Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium FanDuel = $3,500 DraftKings = $2,600

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Greg Olsen vs. Washington Redskins Stadium – FedEx Field FanDuel = $5,900 DraftKings = $4,300

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium FanDuel = $4,300 DraftKings = $2,700

Tier 1

Patrick Mahomes vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $7,000

Nick Foles vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $5,400

Ezekiel Elliott vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $8,200

Marlon Mack vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,800

Darren Sproles vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $4,400

Michael Thomas vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $7,900

Alshon Jeffery vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,800

Dontrelle Inman vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,800

Eric Ebron vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $5,500

Rob Gronkowski vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,600

Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $3,000

New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $2,600

Andrew Luck vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $6,400

Lamar Jackson vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $8,200
DraftKings = $5,800

Ezekiel Elliott vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $9,000

Chris Carson vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $6,800

Gus Edwards vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $7,200
DraftKings = $4,200

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,700

Tyler Lockett vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $7,000
DraftKings = $5,300

Allen Robinson II vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,600

Eric Ebron vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $5,200

Mark Andrews vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium = M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $3,500

Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $3,000

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $2,300

Zach Ertz vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,600
DraftKings = $6,600

Greg Olsen vs. Detroit Lions
Stadium – Ford Field
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,000

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $3,400

Austin Hooper vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,500

Evan Engram vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $4,100

Arizona Cardinals vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $3,100

Eric Ebron vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,300

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $2,500

Travis Kelce vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,000

O.J. Howard vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,300

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $3,400

David Njoku vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $4,200

Jordan Reed vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $5,200
DraftKings = $4,400

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $3,500

Eric Ebron vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $3,500

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $3,300

Zach Ertz vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $7,100

Eric Ebron vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,400

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $3,400

Trey Burton vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,300

David Njoku vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $5,700
DraftKings = $4,200

Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $3,300

Greg Olsen vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $4,400

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $3,500

Eric Ebron vs. New York Jets
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,400

Kyle Rudolph vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,400

Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $4,500
DraftKings = $3,300

David Njoku vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $5,500
DraftKings = $3,800

Vance McDonald vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $3,400

Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $2,600

Greg Olsen vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $4,300

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $2,700