The running back landscape for Week 6 in DFS is going to be very different. If you’re playing in the main Sunday afternoon slate, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack and James White are just a few of the names who won’t be at your disposal either because their team is on a bye or they are playing in a prime time game.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 – Running Backs
If there was ever a time to pay up for running backs in DFS, Week 3 might be it.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations – Divisional Round
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
With Wild Card Weekend in the books, the NFL moves on to the Divisional Round of the playoffs this week. There will be some excellent offenses in action, which could set up for a high scoring weekend in DFS. Let’s discuss some players who stand out at each position based on their matchups. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our NFL Lineup Optimizer to help you build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
QUARTERBACKS
Patrick Mahomes vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $7,000
The Chiefs couldn’t have asked for anything more from Mahomes this season. He not only brought them back to the playoffs in his first season as a starter, but he threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns. There were some concerns heading into the season that Mahomes could be prone to throwing interceptions, but that never really came to fruition as he finished with only 12 picks. He had the highest floor of any quarterback in DFS, throwing for at least two touchdown passes in all but two games. With the Chiefs running game still dealing with the loss of Kareem Hunt, their chances of advancing to the next round rest squarely on Mahomes’ shoulders. Look for him to come through with another productive outing.
Nick Foles vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $5,400
Foles and the Eagles are at it again. They went on the road last week and knocked off a tough Bears team, 16-15. Foles carried over his playoff success from last year, throwing for 266 yards and two touchdowns. Yes, he threw two interceptions, as well, but his overall stat line is still impressive considering his opponent. Now he’ll get to face a Saints team that tied for the third-most passing yards allowed per game (269) during the regular season. At this cheap price, rolling with Foles in tournament play is a viable option.
RUNNING BACKS
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $8,200
The Cowboys don’t have a great offense, but Elliott can cover up a lot of holes. He was the key to their win over the Seahawks last week, carrying the ball 26 times for 137 yards and a touchdown. He was also plenty busy in the passing game, catching four of five targets for an additional 32 yards. With at least 100 total yards in nine straight games, Elliott is a safe bet to be productive. The Rams’ defense has had their problems stopping the run and ended the regular season allowing the most yards-per-carry (5.1) in the league.
Marlon Mack vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,800
Andrew Luck grabs a lot of the headlines for the Colts, and rightfully so. His return to form is the main reason that they have been successful. However, Mack was just as important last week against the Texans, rushing for 148 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. He’s now logged at least 24 carries in three of their last four games, averaging 135.3 yards. He’s also had a nose for the end zone, scoring at least one touchdown in five straight contests. The Chiefs allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game (132.1) and tied for the third-most rushing touchdowns allowed (19) this year, setting up Mack with another opportunity to shine.
Darren Sproles vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $4,400
Oddly enough, Sproles received more carries than any other Eagles’ running back last week against the Bears. He turned his 13 carries into just 21 yards, but that workload says something about how the team views him within their offense. He was on the field for 56 percent of their offensive snaps, compared to 41 percent for Wendell Smallwood and one percent for Josh Adams. With how well the Saints have stopped the run this year, it’s hard to see any of their running backs rushing for a lot of yards. However, the Eagles might have to throw a lot to keep up with the Saints offense, so that game script would seem to favor Sproles. Even at this late stage of his career, he is still a dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield. If you’re looking for a cheap option in tournament play, Sproles has some upside.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Michael Thomas vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $7,900
Overall, Thomas had a spectacular season with 125 receptions on 147 targets for 1,405 yards and nine touchdowns. However, a lot of his damage came early in the year. He was fairly quiet down the stretch, posting 49 yards or fewer in four of his last six contests. The Saints spread the ball around quite a bit, which sometimes didn’t leave Thomas with a ton of opportunities. With that being said, don’t let that shy you away from deploying him this week. The Eagles secondary is a mess and was torched by Allen Robinson for 10 receptions, 143 yards, and a touchdown last week. Nothing against Robinson, but he’s not in the same league as Thomas. The Eagles have their work cut out for them.
Alshon Jeffery vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,800
The return of Foles at quarterback has done wonders for Jeffery. Before Foles took over in Week 15, Jeffery only had two games all season with at least 80 receiving yards. However, with Foles at the helm, he reached that mark three times across four contests. Considering how banged up the Eagles’ defense is and how well the Saints play at home, there is a good chance that the Eagles are going to have to score a lot to keep this game close. That should lead to plenty of targets for Jeffery.
Dontrelle Inman vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,800
T.Y. Hilton stands out as by far the best receiving threat on the Colts. Behind him, they haven’t really had a consistent producer. Inman hasn’t received a ton of opportunities, but he enters this contest with a touchdown in each of his last three games. He received a total of 15 targets during that stretch and was on the field for 70 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps last week, highest among all other wide receivers behind Hilton. With how poorly the Chiefs’ defense has played, don’t overlook Inman if you need a cheap option in tournament play.
TIGHT ENDS
Eric Ebron vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $5,500
Ebron was only on the field for 49 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps last week, but that didn’t stop him from catching another touchdown. Even though his yardage production has been hit-or-miss, he’s still a great option in DFS based on his touchdown production. This is about as juicy of a matchup as it gets against a Chiefs team that allowed 1,067 yards and 10 touchdowns to tight ends this year.
Rob Gronkowski vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,600
Are we seeing the demise of Gronk? He scored just three touchdowns during the regular season, marking the first time in his career where he scored fewer than eight touchdowns during a season in which he played at least 10 games. His 52.5 receiving yards per game was also the second-lowest mark of his career. His upside isn’t what it once was, but he’s still an important part of the Patriots’ offense. Ebron is the safe pick, but if you’re looking to save some even more money at tight end, Gronkowski is a viable option during such a limited slate.
DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS
Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $3,000
The Rams defense can give up some points, but that doesn’t mean they are a bad option. They finished with 18 interceptions during the regular season, which tied for the third-most in the league. They also posted 41 sacks, led by star tackle Aaron Donald. The Cowboys are by no means an offensive juggernaut, even with one of the best running backs in the league on their team, setting up the Rams with the potential to be one of the better defensive plays of the weekend.
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $2,600
The Chargers running back situation is concerning. Melvin Gordon has been banged up down the stretch and suffered another knee injury last week against the Ravens. He returned to that contest and is expected to play this week, but he might not be 100 percent healthy. Austin Ekeler was ineffective as he battled a groin injury last week, rushing 11 times for just 29 yards. Playing in Gillette Stadium in the playoffs is no easy task, so it’s hard to imagine this being one of the better offensive performances of the year from the Chargers.
Author Bio:
Mike has been covering fantasy sports since 2007, joining Lineup Lab in 2017. An avid player of both season-long fantasy leagues and DFS, Mike’s work has appeared on numerous sites, including RotoWire, SportsLine and Sports Illustrated. He’s also been featured on ESPN Radio and DraftKings’ nightly show, The Sweat.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations – Wild Card Round
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
The NFL regular season has come and gone, but that doesn’t mean the fun has ended in DFS. The Wild Card round of the playoffs brings two days worth of DFS contests. Let’s highlight some players at all positions across both days to see who could help you bring home some money. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
QUARTERBACKS
Andrew Luck vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $6,400
After sitting out all of 2017, the Colts couldn’t have asked for much more from Luck this season. He helped lead them back into the playoffs with one of the best years of his career, throwing for 4,593 yards and 39 touchdowns. He destroyed the Texans is two previous meetings, throwing for a combined 863 yards and six touchdowns. The Texans allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game (260) in the league during the regular season, so it’s no surprise that Luck has had success against them. It’s no easy task playing on the road in the playoffs, but this is still a favorable opportunity for Luck to be productive.
Lamar Jackson vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $8,200
DraftKings = $5,800
The Ravens won six of seven games after Jackson took over as their starting quarterback, propelling them into the playoffs. Traditional passing numbers are certainly not his forte, which left him to throw for fewer than 200 yards in six of his starts. Most of his value comes from his ability to run the ball. The Ravens give him plenty of opportunities to make his mark in that department, which enabled him to turn 147 carries into 695 yards and five touchdowns. The Chargers did hold him to 39 rushing yards in Week 16, but he countered with throwing for 204 yards and a touchdown. Being a rookie quarterback in the playoffs can be a challenge, but with his ability to run and this game being play at home, his floor is high enough to warrant considering him for your entry.
RUNNING BACKS
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $9,000
The Cowboys offense wasn’t very productive this season, which left Elliott to record just six rushing touchdowns. However, that didn’t stop him from piling up 304 carries for 1,434 yards. They also turned to him much more frequently in the passing game, which resulted in Elliott finishing with career-highs in targets (95), receptions (77), receiving yards (567) and receiving touchdowns (three). With his immense workload, he may have the highest floor of any running back in play this weekend.
Chris Carson vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $6,800
The Seahawks love to run the ball and settled on Carson to be their lead running back. He finished with six games with at least 100 rushing yards, including each of his last three contests. He also found his way into the end zone five times across his last four games. Even though this is a tough matchup against a stout Cowboys’ run defense, Carson didn’t struggle against them in Week 3 when he rushed for 102 yards and a touchdown. If you don’t want to pay up for Elliott, Carson also has a very high floor.
Gus Edwards vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $7,200
DraftKings = $4,200
Not only did the Ravens make a change at quarterback, but they also made Edwards their starting running back. Alex Collins had a disaster of a year and eventually ended up on IR with a foot injury. With teams trying to contain Jackson on the ground, it has made things difficult to also key on Edwards. Since being named the starter in Week 12, Edwards has amassed 539 yards and a touchdown on 105 carries. His contributions are virtually non-existent in the passing game, but that doesn’t mean you should be avoiding him this week, especially at his cheap price on DraftKings.
WIDE RECEIVERS
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,700
Hopkins is battling an ankle injury, but all signs point to him playing Saturday. He couldn’t have performed much better down the stretch, posting 31 receptions for 421 yards and two touchdowns across his last three games. He finished with 11 touchdowns, overall, marking the third time in the last four seasons that he has reached that threshold. The Colts held him to 36 yards in Week 14, but he still salvaged his line with a touchdown. In Week 4, he torched them for 169 yards and another score. Look for him to have another big performance Saturday.
Tyler Lockett vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $7,000
DraftKings = $5,300
With how often the Seahawks like to run the ball, it doesn’t necessarily equate to good things for their receivers. Lockett still had by far the best season of his career in large part because he posted 16.9 yards per reception. He was also one of their main scoring threats, finishing with 10 touchdowns receptions. To put that into perspective, he had nine total touchdowns across the first three years of his career. His price on FanDuel isn’t exactly a bargain, but he really stands out as a great option on DraftKings.
Allen Robinson II vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,600
The Bears had a horrible wide receiver group in 2017, so addressing the position during the offseason was critical. Robinson was their big haul, even though his numbers don’t exactly jump off the page. He was limited to 13 games, but the Bears held him out in Week 17 to make sure he’d be healthy for the playoffs. The Eagles’ secondary has been hit hard by injuries, which contributed to them allowing the third-most passing yards per game (269) during the regular season. Robinson still led the Bears with 94 targets despite missing three games, so he should have a large enough role to be worth considering this week.
TIGHT ENDS
Eric Ebron vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $5,200
Simply put, Ebron had a crazy season for the Colts. His role looked cloudy heading into the year, but injuries to Jack Doyle quickly thrust him into a prominent role. The Colts also don’t have great wide receivers outside of T.Y. Hilton, which further increased their reliance on Ebron. He came through in a huge way, registering 13 touchdown receptions. He found the end zone in both games against the Texans, as well, making him a prime target in DFS at the tight end spot.
Mark Andrews vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium = M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $3,500
Even though the Ravens don’t throw the ball a lot with Jackson at the helm, Andrews has actually been productive down the stretch. Across his last three games, he’s caught eight of 11 targets for 168 yards and a touchdown. That score came against the Chargers. None of the Ravens’ wide receivers stand out as appealing options for this game, but Andrews is someone to at least consider in tournament play if you want to save money at tight end.
DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $3,000
The switch to Jackson was one of the main reasons why the Ravens were so successful down the stretch, but don’t forget about their stellar defense, either. They were stout throughout the year, allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (210) and the fourth-fewest rushing yards per contest (82.9). They also chipped in 43 sacks and 12 interceptions, making them a great option in DFS. They held the Chargers to 10 points in Week 16 and could once again be tough in their rematch at home.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $2,300
If you’re looking for a cheap defense to roll the dice on in tournament play, going with the Colts isn’t all that crazy. They finished with 15 interceptions this season and allowed only 21 scores through the air. They also allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (101.6). Texans’ quarterback DeShaun Watson was sacked a whopping 62 times this year, including 11 times in two games against the Colts. Even if they give up some points, the Colts defense could still provide value, overall, at their cheap price on both sites.
Author Bio:
Mike has been covering fantasy sports since 2007, joining Lineup Lab in 2017. An avid player of both season-long fantasy leagues and DFS, Mike’s work has appeared on numerous sites, including RotoWire, SportsLine and Sports Illustrated. He’s also been featured on ESPN Radio and DraftKings’ nightly show, The Sweat.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 16 – QB & RB
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
With a bizarre Week 15 now in our rearview mirror, we only have two weeks left of full slates in the NFL. There is no Thursday game during Week 16, but there are two matchups on Saturday. Let’s dive into the main Sunday slate in DFS and highlight some quarterbacks and runnings backs to consider for your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
QUARTERBACKS
Deshaun Watson vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $6,600
The Texans got back in the win column last week against the Jets, boosting their record to 10-4. Watson had another strong performance, throwing for 294 yards and two touchdowns. He also chipped in 26 rushing yards on four carries. Watson is currently on an impressive streak in which he has completed at least 71 percent of his passes and has not thrown an interception in four straight contests. The Eagles secondary has been decimated by injuries to the point where they have now allowed the second-most passing yards per game (281) in the league for the season, overall. With running back Lamar Miller battling an ankle injury, the Texans could rely even more on Watson, giving him tremendous upside for this matchup.
Baker Mayfield vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $7,700
DraftKings = $6,100
Mayfield didn’t play all that well against the Broncos in Week 15, completing just 58.1 percent of his passes for 188 yards. He did somewhat salvage his line with two touchdowns, although he did also throw an interception. Despite his underwhelming performance, he’s one of the top DFS options at quarterback this week. The Bengals defense is a mess and has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (271) to go along with 28 touchdown passes. The last time these two teams met in Week 12, Mayfield threw for 258 yards and four touchdowns.
Josh Allen vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $7,700
DraftKings = $5,800
The Bills don’t have a lot of offensive weapons, but things were really bad last week against the Lions with running backs LeSean McCoy (hamstring) and Chris Ivory (shoulder) inactive. To make matters worse, third-string back Marcus Murphy had to leave the game with an elbow injury. That left the Lions defense to key in on Allen, who completed just 50 percent of his passes for 204 yards. More importantly, they held him to 16 yards on nine carries. Luckily, Allen still finished with a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown, helping him to have another productive performance. Playing on the road against the Patriots isn’t a great matchup, but Allen has been able to provide enough value with his legs to still be worth considering in tournament play.
Dak Prescott vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,700
The Cowboys entered Week 15 with five straight wins and had the look of a team who was going to pull away from the rest of their division. However, not only did they lose to the Colts, but they were shut out, 23-0. Prescott couldn’t get much going, completing 24 of 39 passes for 206 yards and an interception. He’s been a bit inconsistent of late, but he showed his upside against the Eagles two weeks ago when he threw for 455 yards and three touchdowns. The addition of wide receiver Amari Cooper has been huge for Prescott’s production, so look for him to bounce back quickly from his debacle against the Colts. This is certainly a prime opportunity for him to do so against the Bucs, who are tied for the second-most touchdown passes allowed (30) in the league.
RUNNING BACKS
Christian McCaffrey vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Bank of America Stadium
FanDuel = $9,300
DraftKings = $8,800
Panther’s quarterback Cam Newton is struggling with a shoulder issue right now and looked terrible on Monday night against the Saints. He clearly couldn’t throw the ball well down the field, averaging just 4.5 yards per passing attempt. His inability to throw deep was a positive for McCaffrey, though, who was targeted 11 times. He finished with eight catches for 67 yards to go along with 15 carries for an additional 53 yards. That marked his seventh straight game with at least 100 total yards and with his touchdown pass Monday, McCaffrey now has at least one score in four straight contests. Newton’s shoulder likely won’t be any better this week, so expect McCaffrey to get all the work that he can handle.
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $9,000
Even though the Cowboys couldn’t find their way into the end zone against the Colts, Elliott still finished with 128 total yards. He caught seven of his eight targets and has now received at least six targets in six straight games, giving him a significant boost in his overall production. The Bucs are not only allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (128.1), but they’ve also allowed a league-high 106 receptions to running backs, leaving Elliott with a tremendously high upside.
Nick Chubb vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $7,300
Chubb failed to catch a pass Sunday for the first time since Week 7, but he was successful on the ground with 20 carries for 100 yards. Yes, 40 of those yards came on one play, but the 20 carries is the key to his value. He now has at least 20 rushing attempts in four of his last six games and could be in for another heavy workload in Week 16. The Bengals are decimated by injuries on offense, so they might have a hard time putting points on the board, which could lead to a lot of carries late for Chubb. The Bengals’ defense is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (142.4), so don’t hesitate to add Chubb to your entry.
Marlon Mack vs. New York Giants
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $7,000
DraftKings = $5,500
Mack had 60 rushing yards across two games, combined, heading into Week 15, but he broke out of that drought with 139 yards and two touchdowns against the Cowboys. With their defense dominating, Mack received 27 rushing attempts as the Colts nursed their lead to the finish line. Week 16 brings a great opportunity for Mack to thrive considering the Giants just gave up 170 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Derrick Henry on Sunday. The trade of Damon Harrison to the Lions has left a significant hole in their rushing defense, so look for Mack to take advantage.
Elijah McGuire vs. Green Bay Packers
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $5,700
DraftKings = $4,700
The Jets had to place Isaiah Crowell (toe) on IR last week, which opened up the lead back role for McGuire. He wasn’t very effective in his first start, turning 18 carries into just 42 yards. He did find his way into the end zone, though, and he was on the field for 75 percent of the Jets’ offensive snaps. The Jets don’t have any other choice but to give McGuire a lot of snaps, leaving him as a very appealing tournament option based on his cheap price on both sites.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 15 – QB & RB
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
Week 15 brings a bit of an odd schedule in the NFL with two games being played on Saturday. That leaves fewer options to choose from for the main Sunday slate in DFS, but there are still plenty of great players available. Let’s highlight some quarterbacks and running backs that could help you finish the day a winner. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
QUARTERBACKS
Ben Roethlisberger vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $6,600
Roethlisberger injured his ribs last week against the Raiders but was able to return late in the game. Considering he was on the sidelines for a good chunk of the contest, his 282 passing yards and two touchdowns resulted in a pretty good performance. All indications right now are that he plans to take the field in this matchup against the Patriots. Roethlisberger is averaging more passing yards per game on the road this year, but he has 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions across seven road games compared to 16 touchdowns and four interceptions over six games at home. The Patriots have allowed 26 touchdowns through the air, potentially setting up Roethlisberger for another meaty stat line.
Russell Wilson vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $6,700
What a disaster of a performance from Wilson against the Vikings in Week 14. He completed only 10 of 20 passes for 72 yards and one interception. The Seahawks run the ball a ton, which does somewhat limit Wilson’s upside. He’s been able to provide value in DFS mostly based on his ability to provide touchdowns, throwing for at least two scores in all but two games this season. Look for him to get back on track in Week 15 against a bad 49ers’ secondary that is tied for the third-most passing touchdowns allowed (28) in the league and has recorded just two interceptions.
Josh Allen vs. Detroit Lions
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $7,600
DraftKings = $5,800
Allen did not have a good passing game in Week 14 against the Jets, completing 18 of 36 passes for 206 yards and two interceptions. He failed to throw for a touchdown yet again and only has five across nine games. However, he continued to do damage with his legs, rushing nine times for 101 yards and a touchdown. Across his last three games, Allen has 335 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. His lack of talent at wide receiver and overall inexperience may continue to leave him with lackluster passing stats, but his ability to accumulate yards on the ground makes him someone to consider in tournament play.
Derek Carr vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,400
The Raiders pulled out a shocking win against the Steelers last week and Carr was one of the main reasons for their success. He finished with 322 passing yards and two touchdowns, leaving him with eight touchdowns and no interceptions across his last four games. That’s pretty impressive considering two of those games were against the Ravens and Cardinals. He’ll face a much easier task in Week 15 against the Bengals, who have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (274) to go along with 27 passing touchdowns. At his cheap price on both sites, he might be worth considering despite the lack of playmakers around him.
RUNNING BACKS
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $9,000
The Cowboys earned a huge divisional win against the Eagles in Week 14. It’s no surprise that Elliott played well in the victory, rushing 28 times for 113 yards. Not only that, but he caught 12 of his season-high 13 targets for an additional 79 yards. He’s become a significant weapon in the Cowboys’ passing attack this season, receiving 81 targets through 13 games. That gives him immense upside considering he has gained at least 100 yards on the ground in seven games this year, as well. The Colts have been one of the better teams against the run, but facing Elliott is a completely different animal. He still makes for a safe option in cash contests.
Joe Mixon vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $7,800
DraftKings = $6,100
With Andy Dalton (thumb) and A.J. Green (foot) out for the year, the Bengals offense is a shell of its former self. They turned to Mixon to lead their attack in Week 14, giving him a season-high 26 carries. He certainly didn’t disappoint with 111 yards and a touchdown. With fewer weapons to catch passes for the Bengals, Mixon also hauled in five of his six targets for 27 yards. He’s rushed for at least 82 yards in each of the last three games and should get all the work he can handle again in Week 15. That’s great news since the Raiders allow the second-most rushing yards per game (144.5).
Doug Martin vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $4,700
To say Martin was inefficient last week against the Steelers would be an understatement. He was heavily involved with 16 carries but turned them into just 32 yards. Luckily, he somewhat salvaged his performance with a touchdown. The silver lining here was the significant workload that he received and the fact that his touchdown marked his third score across the last three games. The Raiders should continue to give him the bulk of the carries Sunday, which could lead him to a valuable performance since the Bengals have allowed the most rushing yards per game (148.1) and second-most rushing touchdowns (17).
Dalvin Cook vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $6,500
The Vikings offense was awful against the Seahawks on Monday, scoring just seven points. That leaves them with 17 total points over their last two games. Cook was one of the few players who had a respectable performance in Week 15, accumulating 83 total yards and a touchdown. It was also encouraging to see him on the field for 77 percent of the Vikings’ offensive snaps compared to just 20 percent for Latavious Murray. The Dolphins are tied for the third-most rushing yards allowed per game (139.5), leaving Cook as an excellent target in tournament play, especially based on his price on FanDuel.
Jeff Wilson Jr. vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $4,600
Wilson was plenty involved in Week 14 filling in for the injured Matt Breida (ankle), logging 86 percent of the 49ers’ offensive snaps. He only had two targets thrown his way, but he did carry the ball 23 times for 90 yards. Breida has battled various injuries throughout the season and his status for Week 15 is still very much in doubt. If he is unable to play, Wilson would likely again handle the bulk of the work in the 49ers’ backfield. The Seahawks don’t give up a ton of yards on the ground, overall, but they do allow five yards-per-carry, which is tied for the third-most in the league.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 7 – Running Backs
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
The running back position isn’t very deep for Week 7 because not only are four teams on a bye, but Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, and Kareem Hunt also won’t be available for the main Sunday afternoon slate in DFS because they play in primetime games. Let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain the edge for your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Todd Gurley vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $10,200
DraftKings = $9,800
Gurley dominated the Broncos last week, rushing 28 times for 208 yards and two touchdowns. After posting 13 rushing touchdowns in 2017, he already has nine through the first six weeks. He’s also been heavily involved in the passing game, receiving at least five targets in five of six games and posting two receiving scores.
It’s pick-your-poison when it comes to trying to defend against the Rams. Quarterback Jared Goff has shown significant improvement and they have a trio of excellent wide receivers, although Cooper Kupp likely won’t play in Week 7 due to a knee injury. Gurley is often put in great positions to score touchdowns and has one of the highest floors at any position in DFS, as a result. Don’t expect the 49ers to be able to slow him down.
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $8,100
The Cowboys pulled off a surprising 40-7 drubbing of the Jaguars on Sunday. Elliott played a key role in their victory, rushing 24 times for 106 yards and a touchdown. That marked the third time in the last four weeks that Elliot has rushed for at least 100 yards. He also converted his only target into an 11-yard score.
Outside of Week 6, the Cowboys offense hasn’t been very good this season. Elliott has been limited to four total touchdowns, as a result, but he’s been heavily involved with 117 carries and 23 receptions on 30 targets. His involvement in the passing game has provided a significant boost to his value after he had just 26 receptions on 38 targets across 10 games last year. The Redskins defense isn’t exactly a favorable matchup, but Elliott gets enough volume in the offense to still be worth considering in cash tournaments.
Christian McCaffrey vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,700
The Redskins stymied McCaffrey last week, holding him to 20 yards on eight carries. The Panthers were playing catchup after being down 14-0 after the first quarter, which was a big reason why McCaffrey had so few carries. Luckily, he’s a significant part of their passing game and finished the contest with seven catches on eight targets for 46 yards.
It was encouraging to see McCaffrey get so many targets even with tight end Greg Olsen returning from injury. Although McCaffrey did have an outlier performance where he rushed for 184 yards on 28 carries in Week 3, the majority of his value comes from his pass-catching abilities. The Eagles have been stout against the run, but they are tied for the fourth-most receptions allowed to opposing running backs (41).
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Tarik Cohen vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $5,100
Cohen got off to a quiet start this year but had his breakout game Week 4 when he not only rushed for 53 yards on 13 carries, but he also caught seven of eight targets for 121 yards and a touchdown. His speed and ability to catch passes out of the backfield makes him a tough cover for opposing defenses. The Bears had a bye for Week 5, but Cohen was productive again last week against the Dolphins, catching seven of nine targets for 90 yards and another touchdown.
Cohen does have to split backfield duties with Jordan Howard, but Howard has seen his percentage of snaps decrease each of the last three games, bottoming out at 51% in Week 6 compared to 49% for Cohen. If the Bears defense has trouble slowing down the Patriots, Cohen would likely be more involved in a high-scoring game as he’s a far superior pass catcher. He’s a bit risky, but there is plenty of upside here if the game flow falls in his favor.
Carlos Hyde vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $4,700
The Browns had their doors blown off by the Chargers last week as they were down 21-6 at the half and ultimately lost 38-14. As a result of the early lopsided score, Hyde finished with a season-low 14 carries for 34 yards. He also failed to receive a target for the first time this season, although he’s never logged more than three targets in any contest this season.
Maybe the most concerning part of Hyde’s poor performance was that he averaged just 2.4 yards-per-carry. That marked the third game this season where he has averaged less than three yards-per-carry. On the plus side, he has already scored five touchdowns. The Bucs haven’t given up a ton of rushing yards, but opposing offenses have only rushed the ball against them 112 times, fourth-fewest attempts in the NFL. They give up a lot of yards through the air, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Hyde at least finds himself in a favorable position to reach the end zone in this contest.
Kenyan Drake vs. Detroit Lions
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $4,900
Drake is involved in a frustrating timeshare for fantasy purposes with the ageless Frank Gore. Drake hasn’t logged more than 14 carries in any game this season, as a result. His best performance came in Week 5, but that was mostly attributed to his seven catches on 11 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown. The passing game is one area that he has been able to separate himself from Gore, receiving 31 targets compared to Gore’s five.
Don’t expect things to shift any in terms of his workload this week, but that doesn’t mean Drake can’t provide value. The Lions have allowed three running backs to rush for over 100 yards in a game this season and have allowed the third-most rushing yard per game (145.8), overall. His upside isn’t off the charts due to Gore’s presence, but Drake is still someone to consider in tournament play.
Peyton Barber vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $3,800
The Bucs running game has been horrendous. Entering Week 6, Barber had rushed for 33 yards or fewer in three straight games and rookie Ronald Jones is still very much a work in progress. Barber finally showed signs of life in Jameis Winston’s return as the starting quarterback Sunday, rushing 13 times for 82 yards and catching all four of his targets for an additional 24 yards.
Barber still has a long way to go before you can feel very comfortable rolling with him in your lineup. However, it was encouraging to see him get 13 carries coming out of the bye week compared to only one for Jones. Barber appears to have a hold on the lead back job, for the time being, and gets a favorable matchup Week 7 against a Browns team that is tied for the sixth-most yards-per-carry allowed (4.7) and has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (1382.).
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Mark Ingram vs. Baltimore Ravens
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $5,900
Alvin Kamara was a man possessed during Ingram’s four-game suspension. That didn’t matter for Ingram’s first game back, though, as he received 16 carries compared to just six for Kamara. Kamara was only on the field for 47% of the team’s offensive plays after being on the field for at least 71% of them in each of the previous four weeks. Some of that had to do with the Saints getting up big in that game, while some of it also might have been the Saints seeing an opportunity to give Kamara a little rest. Expect him to be much more involved Sunday. This isn’t a great matchup for the Saints’ running backs, either, with the Ravens allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (82.8).
Alex Collins vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,800
After averaging 4.6 yards-per-carry during his breakout campaign last year, Collins is only averaging 3.6 yards-per-carry this season. He did come away with two touchdowns last week, but Javorius Allen has been their preferred goal-line back. Allen has also been on the field for 47% of the team’s offensive plays this season compared to 43% for Collins. The Saints have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (71.4), leaving Collins with very little upside.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 – Running Backs
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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Running back isn’t especially deep for Week 6. The Saints are on a bye, meaning Alvin Kamara won’t be an option. The Lions are on a bye as well, which is a bad thing because they are a team you normally want to play opposing running backs against. Injuries continue to be a problem at the position, too, with Leonard Fournette expected to be out again due to his hamstring injury and Dalvin Cook still battling a hamstring issue of his own. Let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain the edge in DFS. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Todd Gurley vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $9,500
DraftKings = $10,000
Gurley didn’t exactly run wild Sunday against the Seahawks, rushing 22 times for 77 yards. His 3.5 yards-per-carry was his second-lowest mark of the season. However, he still had a monster performance with three rushing touchdowns. He also chipped in four catches on five targets for 36 yards, helping the Rams win a big game on the road against the Seahawks.
There is little doubt that Gurley is the top option at running back for Week 6. Not only does he get a ton of carries, but he’s received at least five targets in four of five games this year. He has one of the highest touchdown upsides in the league considering the Rams explosive offense. The Broncos were torched by Isaiah Crowell for 219 yards in Week 5 and have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (139.6) in the league.
Melvin Gordon vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,200
If you want reliable, Gordon is your man. His overall rushing yardage totals haven’t been off the charts, but he is averaging a career-high 4.6 yards-per-carry. He’s also scored a rushing touchdown in three of his last four games. However, maybe the biggest reason that Gordon has been a consistent source of fantasy points this year is because of his increased involvement in the passing game. After finishing 2017 with 58 receptions on 83 targets for 476 yards. Gordon already has 28 catches on 38 targets for 261 yards.
The Chargers do have an explosive backup to Gordon in Austin Ekler, but Gordon is clearly going to get plenty of work. The Browns have had their issues stopping opposing running backs, allowing 116.6 rushing yards per game and 28 receptions for 284 yards to opposing running backs. Gordon’s floor might not be as high as Gurley’s, but he’s a great option for your entry.
Christian McCaffrey vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $8,300
The Panthers enjoyed a bye for Week 4, leaving McCaffrey and company with plenty of rest heading into a home matchup against the Giants. McCaffrey had rushed 28 times for 184 yards Week 3 against the Bengals, a feat that was going to be very difficult for him to match. He didn’t come close to that kind of production, rushing 17 times for 58 yards. His 3.4 yards-per-carry was his lowest mark of the season, although the 17 carries were his second-most attempts.
The good part about McCaffrey is that he doesn’t need to have a lot of success carrying the ball to provide value. He caught five of six targets for 35 yards and a touchdown in that game, which was his first score of the season. Despite having a bye week, McCaffrey’s 32 targets are tied for sixth-most among running backs. The Redskins have only allowed 92.5 rushing yards per game, which is in large part because opponents have the fourth-fewest rushing attempts against them (92). The Panthers rely heavily on the run and with McCaffrey’s immense upside in the passing game, he’s still one of the best running backs available for Week 6.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Joe Mixon vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $7,500
Mixon returned in Week 5 from a two-week absence due to a knee injury. It was just in time for the Bengals, who have since lost his backup Giovani Bernard to a sprained MCL. With the lack of quality depth behind him, Mixon wasted no time in his return, rushing the ball 22 times for 93 yards. In the three games that Mixon has played, he has at least 17 carries and 84 rushing yards in each of them.
The Bengals will also turn to Mixon in the passing game with Bernard out, which helped him haul in three of four targets for 22 yards and a touchdown Sunday. This could be a high-scoring game against a Steelers team that is not only averaging 28.6 points per game but has also allowed 26.6 points per contest. Expect Mixon to put up plenty of yards and have a favorable chance of reaching the end zone.
Marshawn Lynch vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Wembley Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,300
The Raiders are a disaster. They scored 10 points in a loss to the Chargers in Week 5, marking the third time this season they have scored fewer than 20 points in a game. That’s not a recipe for success considering their defense has allowed 29.8 points per contest. Lynch was a victim of their lopsided loss Sunday, receiving a season-low nine carries. He finished with only 31 rushing yards and failed to score a touchdown for the second straight week.
Lynch and the Raiders will look to regroup for the first game of the season in London. This could be a matchup to exploit considering the Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (129) and the seventh-most yards-per-carry (4.7) in the league. Lynch had received at least 18 carries in each of the previous three weeks and has scored three touchdowns overall, making him an intriguing option in tournament play.
Chris Carson vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Wembley Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,400
One of the most perplexing running back situations in the league can be found in Seattle. They drafted Rashaad Penny in the first round to potentially be their running back of the future, but he hasn’t received more than 10 carries in a game this season and didn’t even log a single offensive snap in Week 5. Mike Davis has surprisingly been given a prominent role over the last two weeks, totaling 169 yards on 33 carries.
Carson was starting to establish himself after rushing 32 times for 102 yards in Week 3, but missed Week 4 due to injury. He returned Sunday, and although Davis still received 12 carries, Carson was the superior runner with 19 carries for 116 yards. Both players should continue to get carries Sunday but expect Carson to see the heavier workload. The uncertainty surrounding Seattle’s backfield has helped keep Carson’s price down, leaving him as someone worth taking a chance on since the Raiders have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (127.2).
Phillip Lindsay vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $4,500
Lindsay worked his way into a prominent role at the start of the season and hasn’t looked back. He was ejected early in Week 3’s game against the Ravens but has at least 12 carries and 61 rushing yards in each of his other four games. He’s still sharing the backfield with Royce Freeman, which has worked well for the Broncos so far since both players are averaging more than five yards-per-carry.
The split at running back somewhat limits Lindsay’s upside, especially since Freeman is going to get the majority of the goal-line carries. He already has three rushing touchdowns compared to just one for Lindsay. However, Freeman has received only six targets compared to 12 for Lindsay. The Broncos could find themselves in a big hole early against the Rams offense, and if that’s the case, the game plan late in the game would likely favor Lindsay. The Rams defense hasn’t been stout against the run, either, allowing the fourth-most yards-per-carry (5.0).
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $8,100
DraftKings = $7,000
This has more to do with Elliott’s price and matchup than anything else. He’s clearly one of the best running backs in the league and is the top offensive weapon on the Cowboys based on their lack of talent at wide receiver. They’ve even leaned on him more in the passing game, resulting in Elliot getting 29 targets this year. The Jaguars had a tough time against the Chiefs in Week 5, but the Cowboys have one of the least explosive offenses in the league. Look for the Jaguars to key in on stopping Elliott, making him a risky play at this price.
Kenyan Drake vs. Chicago Bears
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $4,600
Drake had his best performance of the season Sunday, finishing with 115 total yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. However, he only received six carries compared to 12 for Frank Gore. That marked the third straight week that Drake had fewer than 10 rushing attempts. Drake might have big-play upside, but it’s hard for him to cash in if he doesn’t get enough opportunities. The Bears have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (64) and have yet to allow a touchdown on the ground, so stay far away from Drake when crafting your entry.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 4 – Running Backs
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Early bird special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
The Panthers and Redskins will be the first two teams with bye weeks this season, meaning Christian McCaffrey, Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson all won’t be available for your DFS entry in Week 4. However, there are still some great matchups to exploit, so let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain an edge. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Alvin Kamara vs. New York Giants
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $9,100
DraftKings = $9,600
Kamara is certainly not your traditional running back. He’s averaged 3.8 yards-per-carry through the first three weeks, totaling 141 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. His big impact comes in the passing attack as he already has 30 receptions on 38 targets for 289 yards and a touchdown. Not only has he received the most targets of any running back in football, but he has the fourth-most targets overall behind only Adam Thielen (44), Antonio Brown (42) and his teammate Michael Thomas (40).
This will be the last game of Mark Ingram’s suspension to start the season, so there is no question that Kamara will receive a heavy workload once again. With the number of passes he gets thrown his way, he has an extremely high floor. This is also a good matchup against a Giants defense that has allowed 165 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns to running backs through the first three weeks. Kamara won’t come cheap, but he should be worth it.
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Detroit Lions
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $8,200
DraftKings = $7,700
The Cowboys are severely lacking talent at wide receiver, squarely putting the offense on the shoulders of Elliott. Their offensive line isn’t as formidable as it has been in recent seasons, but Elliott is still averaging 5.7 yards-per-carry and has two rushing touchdowns this season. He hasn’t been able to rack up many receiving yards, but he has already received 18 targets after getting 38 targets over 10 games in 2017.
Although his touchdown upside is limited based on the Cowboys’ offensive struggles, this is a great matchup for Elliott. The Lions have been awful against the run, allowing a league-high 5.4 yards-per-carry. The Lions also have a high-powered offense, so the Cowboys would be wise to lean heavily on Elliott in attempt to eat up the clock and keep the ball out of Matthew Stafford’s hands.
Giovani Bernard vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $6,300
Bernard filled the role of lead running back for the Bengals in Week 3 with Joe Mixon sidelined due to a knee injury. He came through with a well-rounded performance, rushing 12 times for 61 yards and a touchdown while catching five of nine targets for 25 yards. Wide receiver Tyler Boyd was the only other Bengal to receive a carry in this game and Bernard’s nine targets also lead the team.
Mixon is expected to be out again for Week 4, leaving Bernard with a great opportunity to provide value. The Falcons defense has been decimated by injuries and has already lost linebacker Deion Jones and safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen. Over the last two weeks, they have allowed 29 receptions and 226 receiving yards to opposing running backs. Bernard isn’t overly expensive, either, making him a great player to build your lineup around.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Lamar Miller vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,000
Miller found tough sledding against the Giants in Week 3, rushing 10 times for only 10 yards. He was still able to salvage his afternoon, though, by hauling in five of six targets for 41 yards and a touchdown. He was running well heading into that game, averaging 4.9 yards-per-carry against the Patriots and Titans over his first two contests. The Giants do have a great run-stuffer Damon Harrison in the middle of their defensive line, so it wasn’t exactly a great matchup for Miller on Sunday.
Things swing back in Miller’s favor this week against a Colts run defense that allowed 142 rushing yards last week to the combination of Corey Clement, Wendell Smallwood, and Josh Adams. They struggled against Mixon in Week 1, allowing him to rush for 95 yards on only 17 carries. Miller doesn’t have much competition for carries behind him, so he could be worth the risk at this reasonable price on both sites.
Chris Carson vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,600
The Seahawks have had a murky running back situation to start the year. Carson only totaled 13 carries over the first two games, but he averaged 5.8 yards-per-carry. They handed the reins over to him last week against the Cowboys and he cashed in with 102 yards and a touchdown on 32 attempts. Rashaad Penny, his main competition for carries, had only three attempts for five yards.
It can be tough to gauge head coach Pete Carroll, but Carson figures to be the lead back for Week 4 based on his performance Sunday. It also shouldn’t go unnoticed that they had success running the ball last week in what was the first game of the season for offensive guard D.J. Fluker, who is very good in the running game. The Cardinals have allowed 131.3 rushing yards per game and five rushing touchdowns so far this season, making Carson an intriguing option to consider.
Marshawn Lynch vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,800
Lynch hasn’t had any eye-opening performances yet this season, averaging 56.7 rushing yards per contest. He hasn’t provided much value in the passing game, either, catching six of seven targets for 33 yards. The one positive to latch on to is that he has scored a touchdown in each contest. He already has 10 rushing attempts inside the red zone, which is good for fourth in the league behind Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara and Adrian Peterson.
The Browns do have an improving defense and have allowed just 3.7 yards-per-carry this season, but they have given up four scores on the ground. Although Derek Carr has already thrown five interceptions, he has been able to move the ball up and down the field by averaging 312 passing yards per game. He only has two touchdown passes, though, as the Raiders have shown they prefer to turn to Lynch when they have the ball in close. Lynch might be hard pressed to rush for 100 yards in this game, but he has a good chance of reaching the end zone.
Aaron Jones vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – Lambeau Field
FanDuel = $5,500
DraftKings = $4,100
Jones made his season debut Week 3 after missing the first two games due to a suspension. The Packers didn’t have many rushing attempts since they got down big and had to play catch up, but Jones did lead the team in rushing attempts (six) and rushing yards (42). He showed promise in limited action last year, as well, averaging 5.5 yards-per-carry on 81 attempts. If you are looking for a downside with Jones, though, it’s that he’s clearly a secondary option catching passes out of the backfield behind Ty Montgomery.
The Bills came out of nowhere to put a hurting on the Vikings last week, but don’t expect similar results on the road at Lambeau Field. If the Packers race out to an early lead, they could be run-heavy down the stretch. The Bills have also allowed four rushing touchdowns this year, continuing a trend from last season where they couldn’t keep opposing running backs out of the end zone. Jones might see more carries in this contest, making him someone to at least consider at this cheap price in tournament play.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Isaiah Crowell vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – TIAA Bank Field
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $3,700
Crowell got a bit of revenge against his former team in the Browns with two rushing touchdowns Thursday. He already has four touchdowns for the season after scoring just twice all of last season. The problem is he only averaged 2.5 yards-per-carry the last two weeks and gets a tough matchup against the vaunted Jaguars defense Sunday. I think his 102-yard performance in Week 1 is more of an outlier than anything else, so I’d stay away from using Crowell in this contest.
Peyton Barber vs. Chicago Bears
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $3,800
Barber has seen his carries decrease in each of the first three games, bottoming out at eight carries for 33 yards on Monday night. The Bucs gave him 16 carries in Week 2, but he came away with only 22 yards. Their offense is clearly built around their talented wide receiver trio of Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin, who have all been extremely productive with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. Don’t expect them to rely too much on their rushing attack Sunday against a Bears team that has allowed an average of 3.4 yards-per-carry and has yet to allow a rushing touchdown.
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 16
*Cesar Becerra*
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 16
We’re down to the final two weeks of the regular season, that means that we’ll have to monitor team reporters much closer than we usually would have to on Sunday morning. We could see instances where teams that have already clinched playoff berths/bye rest regulars. And we can also see a situation like the Packers where Aaron Rodgers was placed on IR after Green Bay was eliminated from postseason contention.
This applies more next week (week 17) than this week. But we could see a case where the Eagles get a little conservative if they clinch a first-round bye (PHI clinch a first-round bye with Vikings loss on Saturday). Let’s dive right in.
With no more Thursday Night or Sunday Night games, we are left with two Saturday games and two Monday Night games this week, but none of those games are on the Draftkings main slate. The Draftkings main slate features a 12-game slate and is Sunday only games.
Vegas
The Draftkings main slate has only one game with a game total over 50. The Falcons visiting the Saints line is currently sitting with a 52.5 over/under. The next games with the highest game totals are the Rams at Titans (48), Seahawks at Cowboys (47), Bills at Patriots (47), and Panthers at Bucs (46.5). Outside of those five games, no other game has a total over 45 points.
Regarding implied team totals, they are headlined by several of the teams I mentioned above. The Pats (29.75) and Saints (29) lead the way with over a four-touchdown implied total, but the Panthers (28.25), Rams (27.25), and Chiefs (27) are not that far behind. Some other teams with decent team totals are the Cowboys (26), Chargers (24.5), Lions (24). The Falcons (23.5) and Jags (23) round out the top ten of teams with the highest implied total.
In terms of game script, we have three teams that are double-digit favorites. The Pats are 12.5 points favorites at home against the Bills. The Chiefs are 10.5 point home favorites against the Dolphins. And lastly, the Panthers are 10 points favorites over the Bucs (this line is very interesting because the line initially opened at Panthers (-4) and has since moved 6 points). Outside of those huge favorites, the Chargers (-6.5), Bears (-6.5), and Rams (-6.5) all opened up as more than a touchdown favorite, but have since dipped below.
All this Vegas Data was taken as of Wednesday night, so I strongly suggest checking back on Vegas Insiders on Sunday morning.
Quarterbacks
Quarterback pricing is relatively even this week. The top 11 quarterbacks are all priced within $1,000 of each other with Russell Wilson ($7,000) leading the way and Dak Prescott ($6,000) rounding out the lower 6k range.
Drew Brees ($6,500) – It’s tough to choose between the top 5 priced quarterbacks, they are all in pretty good spots. I think due to recency bias Cam will be the most popular among that tier. I’m hedging from the slightly higher owned Cam for a cheaper Drew Brees. I like Brees for the $300 savings from Newton and the fact that his game has a higher game total (52.5 vs. 46.5) as well as a closer spread (-5.5 vs. -10). The Falcons and Saints games have traditionally turned into a shootout over the last three seasons, and Brees has crushed each time. Brees is a perfect 3 for 3 at exceeding his salary at home against the Falcons in their last 3 meetings at the Superdome. I know that the Saints have transitioned to a running team with their 2-headed monster, but I like taking my chances with Brees against Atlanta who ranks 20th against QB in aFPA. I get it that Cam has the safer floor, but when Brees is in the right matchup, he has the highest ceiling of any QB in the league.
Dak Prescott ($6,000) – There’s no mistake about it, Prescott has been awful without Zeke. But now the Cowboys finally get Zeke back after a six-game suspension, so that brings Prescott and the Cowboys offense back into play. Prescott is a home favorite facing a Seahawks defense that ranks 15th in aFPA to opposing QBs. The matchup is far from ideal, but if you’re looking to take a flyer on a quarterback with nice rushing upside, Prescott is your guy. I don’t like him as much as the next guy I mention, but if you’re looking at this salary range, I like his rushing upside.
Kirk Cousins ($5,400) – Yes, this is a bad matchup on paper against the Denver Broncos. But the Broncos aren’t the same feared defense that they were in the past. The Broncos rank in the bottom 5 in the league in passing touchdowns allowed (26) on the season. They still rank atop the league in passing yardage allowed (189) but are at the bottom 6 in the league in interceptions forced (8). Teams are throwing the least against the Broncos (418 attempts), yet 6 of the last 7 QBs to face the Broncos have met salary expectations. The lone exception is Josh McCown who was injured early in the game. I’m not saying you should start Cousins with 100% confidence, but Cousins is at his lowest price of the season and should air it out at least 30 times. Cousins has had some big games at home this season, so I think I’ll take a flyer on him for tournaments.
Cash:
C. Newton, R. Wilson, D. Brees, A. Smith, T. Brady
GPP:
(all of above) K. Cousins, D. Prescott, B. Bortles, M. Stafford
Running backs
Kareem Hunt ($8,400) – Everyone will pay up for Gurley after his 48 point eruption game. Gurley is always in play, so I won’t write him up for the rest of the season. But a pivot off Gurley to save a few hundred bucks is Hunt. Hunt is only a $600 discount, so it’s nothing too crazy, but Hunt is slowly starting to look like how he started off the season. In the last two weeks under a new play caller, Hunt has absolutely smashed. Hunt in his last two games, Hunt has 24 and 25 carries in each game. In those two games, Hunt has 12 targets and 10 receptions totaling 73 yards. Overall he’s scored 3 touchdowns in his last two games, and now he faces the Dolphins who rank 29th in aFPA to opposing running backs. Hunt is a huge home favorite (-10.5) and in another nice spot this week.
Devonta Freeman ($6,500) – Barring any news about Tevin Coleman, Freeman is shaping up to be the highest owned running back on the slate. Freeman is coming off of his best game of the season where he touched the ball 27 times and totaled 194 yards with one rushing touchdown. Freeman’s workload is expected to remain the same, and he’s facing the Saints in which he has killed throughout his career. The Falcons are road underdogs, but this game should stay close, and Freeman could see another 5 targets in a game that has the highest potential to shoot out.
James White ($4,100) – Searching for value, we might have to land on the headache of the Patriots backfield. It’s always a mystery with what Bill Belichick will do with his trio of running backs, but this week we get some clarity. Rex Burkhead will be inactive, and Mike Gillislee ($3,900) is expected to be active for the first time in 5 weeks and should see all the goal-line work. That leaves Dion Lewis ($6,000) and James White ($4,100) in store to get the work in before the Pats reach the 5-yard line. White has seen a fair share of snaps with 45% over the last two games and has also received the most targets in the past four games (15). White figures to see an improved role out of the backfield and will continue to get targets. I like taking a flyer on him at his $4,100 price tag over Lewis.
Cash:
T. Gurley, K. Hunt, D. Freeman, M. Gordon, G. Bernard, A. Kamara, C. McCaffrey.
GPP:
(all of above), E. Elliott, L. McCoy, L. Fournette, P. Barber, J. White
Wide Receiver
A.J. Green ($6,700) – Michael Thomas ($7,600) is likely the highest owned receiver and for a good reason. A.J. Green is a nice pivot off the high priced Thomas. Once again, Green finds himself below 7k, but this time he’s a much better matchup than last week. Green faces the Lions defense that ranks 24th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Erasing last week’s tough matchup with Xavier Rhodes, Green is still seeing close to double-digit targets on average and is seeing 30% of the team’s targets. Green has had a somewhat disappointing season so far, but he always has the potential to go off for 20+ points. Green should come in at single-digit ownership and would be a nice pivot off the heavily owned Thomas.
Larry Fitzgerald ($6,800) – Fitz has 10 targets in 2 of the last 3 games for the Cardinals. This week Fitz goes up against the Giants secondary that is very depleted. The Giants rank 31st in aFPA to wide receivers and the Cards are home favorites. Fitz is a bit discouraging considering that Drew Stanton will be under center, but Fitz will continue to see the majority of the targets from the receiving corp.
Josh Doctson ($3,500) – A value GPP shot in the dark is Josh Doctson. I mentioned in the quarterback section that the Broncos rank in the bottom 5 in the league at allowing passing touchdowns. If you are going to take a shot with Cousins, you should consider stacking him with Doctson. Doctson may not be the possession receiver that Jamison Crowder ($5,000) is, but Doctson leads the team with 33% touchdown percent in the red zone. Doctson doesn’t have a safe floor but has a pretty decent ceiling. If he could find the end zone and catch 3-4 balls, he’ll smash value.
Cash:
M. Thomas, K. Allen, J. Jones, A. Green, L. Fitz, J. Crowder, C. Kupp, R. Matthews, D. Thomas, K. Cole, D. Westbrook,
Gpp:
(All of above), T. Hill, J. Landry, D. Funches, M. Evans, D. Bryant, M. Jones, M. Goodwin, J. Gordon, P. Richardson,
Tight End
Eric Ebron ($3,300) – Ebron has been pretty good since the beginning of November. In his last 7 games, Ebron has 40 targets (5.7/gm) and has 32 catches. That’s good enough for an 80% catch rate. During that span, Ebron also has a pair of touchdowns. This week Ebron is going up against the Bengals who rank 29th in aFPA. In a slate that has very little value, I like Ebron to save some salary.
Antonio Gates ($2,500) – Hunter Henry was placed on IR earlier this week, which signals more opportunity for old man Gates. Gates is the bare minimum and provides salary relief to the roster in studs at other positions. Last week Gates caught his lone red zone target for a 10-yard touchdown. At $2,500 you don’t need much to get four times salary.
Cash:
T. Kelce, E. Ebron, A. Gates, G. Olsen, T. Kroft
GPP:
(All of above), R. Gronkowski, G. Celek
Defense
Carolina Panthers ($3,100) – The Panthers have been on a tear their last two games creating turnovers. In the previous two games against the Packers and Vikings, they have accumulated 9 sacks, 2 fumbles, and 5 interceptions. This week they are huge 10 point favorites at home against the Bucs who are allowing defenses to outscore their implied points projection every time in the past 3 weeks.
Cash:
Panthers, Jacksonville, New England, Kansas City,
Gpp:
(all of above) Arizona, Washington