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2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

One of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball is closers. The traditional closer role is also being reexamined by some teams who may not wait until the ninth inning to bring in their best reliever based on the situation. That could leave you chasing saves more than ever. However, that doesn’t mean you can’t dominate the position in your league. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some closers who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers

Jansen has been a dominant force at the end of games, converting 168 of 182 save opportunities (92.3%) over the last four seasons. He had a WHIP of 0.86 or lower in five of the last six seasons and has seen his ERA decrease three straight seasons, finishing at a career low 1.32 in 2017. Strikeouts are his specialty with a career K/9 of 14.0. I could go on and on with juicy stats from Jansen, who also posted a career-low 0.9 BB/9 in 2017. He gets the benefit of playing for one of the best teams in baseball, which should leave him with plenty of save chances again this season. You’ll have to take him early in your draft if you want his services, but he is the clear top closer option.

Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox

After posting an uncharacteristic 3.40 ERA in his first season with the Red Sox in 2016, Kimbrel returned to form last year. Not only did he drop his ERA down to 1.43, but his 0.68 WHIP was also the second-lowest mark of his career. In seven career seasons that he has logged at least 50 innings, Kimbrel has finished with an ERA of 1.61 or lower and a WHIP of 0.91 or lower four times. Like Jansen, he too has been a strikeout machine with a career 14.8 K/9. He hasn’t saved at least 40 games in a season since he was a member of the Atlanta Braves in 2014, but he is still one of the elite closers in fantasy baseball.

Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees

Chapman did not have his best year in 2017 and even was removed from the closer’s role for a brief stretch. His overall numbers don’t look great by his standards, finishing with a 3.22 ERA and just 22 saves. However, he still had a respectable WHIP of 1.13 and a 12.3 K/9. The main reason for the spike in his ERA was that he allowed two earned runs each in three-straight appearances in August. Outside of that, he allowed two runs or more in only two other games all season. His low save total can also be attributed to the fact that he missed over a month with a shoulder injury. He righted the ship towards the end of the season and also gave up only one run in eight innings during the playoffs. I expect him to have a bounce-back campaign on a strong Yankees team, leaving him to round out the top three closers in fantasy.

Overvalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

Alex Colome, Tampa Bay Rays

Colome made his first All-Star team in 2016, finishing with a 1.91 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 and 37 saves. He managed to lead baseball with 47 saves in 2017 but took a significant step backward just about everywhere else. Not only did he finish with a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, but he suffered a huge dropoff in K/9 at only 7.8. His career K/9 is 8.0, so that was actually more of what we should be expecting from him, not his abnormally high strikeout rate from 2016. The Rays are in rebuilding mode for 2018 and have traded away several important players from their 2017 squad. Don’t be surprised if Colome is dealt at some point this season as well, possibly to a team that doesn’t have him close. There are a lot of risks involved with Colome, making it hard for me to justify his current ADP in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) of 125.69.

Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies

Neris posted a career-high 26 saves last season, which is significant considering how poorly the Phillies played. He finished with a 3.01 ERA and 10.4 K/9, but his 1.26 WHIP and 3.71 FIP are a bit concerning heading into 2018. The Phillies are an improved team this year, so Neris could have more save opportunities than he saw in 2017. The problem is his current ADP is 143.28, which is significantly higher than Brandon Morrow (179.20) and Kelvin Herrara (199.75), two players who can at least provide similar production in terms of ERA and saves. I’d rather take a chance on one of those two later on.

Undervalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals

Doolittle started out 2017 as a member of the Oakland Athletics and pitched 21.2 innings for them, posting a 3.38 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, and 13.1 K/9. He only had three saves with Oakland but was traded to the Nationals, who had major bullpen struggles in the first half of the season. Doolittle did a stellar job as their closer, converting 21 of his 22 save opportunities with the team. Although his K/9 dropped to 9.3 with Washingon, his ERA was just 2.40. He’s had some injury issues in his career, but he is going to get a lot of save chances on a good Nationals team if he can stay healthy. With a current ADP of 128.02, he is a bargain considering his upside.

Mark Melancon, San Francisco Giants

Melancon established himself as a premier reliever during his tenure with the Pittsburgh Pirates, posting an ERA of 1.90 or lower in three of his four seasons with the team. He combined to log 98 saves in 2015 and 2016, spending the second half of 2016 with the Nationals. The Giants brought him in last winter to anchor their bullpen, but his season was a disaster. He was limited to only 30 innings due to injury and didn’t pitch well when he was on the mound, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Luck was not on his side as opponents had a .374 BABIP against him last year, significantly higher than his career mark of .281. He had surgery to fix his elbow in September and now that he’s healthy, he will assume the ninth inning duties once again. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher with a career 8.2 K/9, but he could get more save opportunities on an improved Giants squad. His current ADP is 175.64, making him someone to target if you plan to wait on saves.

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

With the offensive outburst that was experienced throughout the league in 2017, quality starting pitchers seem harder to come by this year in fantasy baseball. However, that doesn’t mean you still can’t assemble a quality staff for your squad. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some starting pitchers who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Five

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Kershaw is the elite of the elite when it comes to starting pitchers. Outside of his rookie season in 2008, Kershaw has never finished the season with an ERA above 2.91. His career ERA of 2.36 is off the charts and is in no ways a fluke considering his career FIP is 2.60. He does an excellent job keeping men off base, posting a WHIP of 0.95 or lower in each of the last five seasons. That’s a big reason why he posted a 2.31 ERA last year despite posting a career-high 1.2 HR/9. To top off his stellar numbers, he has a K/9 of at least 10.4 in four straight seasons. Injuries have limited him to 175 innings or fewer in back-to-back seasons, but his numbers are so outstanding when he is on the mound that he is the clear choice for the top starting pitcher in fantasy baseball.

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

Scherzer was a very good starting pitcher as a member of the Detroit Tigers, but he’s taken his game to the next level since joining the Nationals. In three seasons in Washington, Scherzer has never had an ERA above 2.96 or a WHIP above 0.97. His batting average against has decreased each year with the Nationals with opponents hitting a mere .178 against him in 2017. He’s also a strikeout machine, posting a K/9 of at least 10.1 in each of the last six seasons, topping out at a career-high 12.0 last year. Throw in the fact that he has logged at least 214.1 innings in five straight seasons and not only is he the second-best starting pitcher in fantasy baseball, but he is well worth a first-round pick.

Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

Sale had arguably the best season of his career in 2017, finishing 17-8 with a 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and an insane 308 strikeouts in 214.1 innings. He is one of the most dominating strikeout pitchers in the game, posting a K/9 of at least 10.8 in three of the last four seasons. If not for a few rough starts in August and September and a stellar finish by Corey Kluber, Sale could have won his first Cy Young Award last year. Like Scherzer, Sale has been very reliable, throwing at least 208.2 innings in four of the last five seasons. The only reason he comes in third on this list behind Scherzer is that he had an ERA of 3.05 or higher in four of five seasons entering 2017. It’s a matter of splitting hairs though, so it could also cost you a first-round pick to get Sale on your team this year depending on the size of your league.

Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians

Kluber closed out 2017 strong, going 11-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in the second half of the season. Overall, he set or tied career highs last year in wins (18), ERA (2.25), WHIP (0.87) and K/9 (11.7) on his way to winning the American League Cy Young Award. His FIP was also 2.50, marking the third time in the last four seasons that he recorded a FIP of 2.97 or lower. With a career K/9 of 9.9, Kluber was able to make big strides in that category last year by posting a swinging strike percentage of 24.2%, significantly higher than his career mark of 20.3%. He may be in for a slight regression in the strikeout department this year, but he is still going to finish with great numbers overall. If you want him on your team, you’ll likely have to spend at least a second-round pick to get him.

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

Strasburg provided fantasy owners with a ton of value last year despite only logging 175.1 innings, finishing 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 204 strikeouts. His FIP was just 2.72, marking the fourth straight season he had a FIP of 2.94 or lower. Like the other starters on this list, he is a dominant strikeout pitcher, recording a K/9 of at least 10.1 in each of the last four seasons. There is no doubt that when Strasburg is healthy, he is one of the top pitchers in the league. However, health has been a concern with Strasburg logging at least 200 innings only once in his career. He had actually thrown less than 150 innings in back-to-back seasons entering 2017. That’s the reason he comes in fifth on this list, but he is still worthy of being a fantasy staff ace.

Overvalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros

Cole’s best season was in 2015 as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates when he finished 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 208 innings. However, his numbers have declined in the two years since, finishing last year 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA and 196 strikeouts in 203 innings. His main problem in 2017 was a massive increase in home runs allowed. He only allowed 29 home runs from 2014 through 2016 but gave up 31 in 2017 alone. When you add in the fact that he also issued a career-high 55 walks, you get the big jump in ERA. There is a reason for optimism this year though as his ground ball to flyball ratio was 0.85 last year, which is almost right on pace with his career mark. His home run to flyball percentage jumped all the way up to 11.3%, almost double his previous career high. With some regression to the norm this season, Cole could get his ERA back down under 4.00. The problem is his ADP in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) is 81.79, ahead of players including Masahiro Tanaka (99.84) and Jose Berrios (106.66). Cole appears to be trending upward, but his ADP is too high right now to provide enough value for your squad.

Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays

Stroman is a fine starting pitcher, winning 13 games and posting a 3.09 ERA for the Blue Jays last season. He doesn’t provide much in the way of strikeouts though with a career K/9 of 7.3. Considering he has posted a 1.29 WHIP or higher in back-to-back seasons, that can be a bit of a scary proposition. If you are going to select a starting pitcher who doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters, he needs to help you in both ERA and WHIP, not just ERA. Stroman’s current ADP is 134.78, which is too high considering his limitations.

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals

Gonzalez had a surprisingly good season in 2017, finishing 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. It marked the first time he had an ERA under three and a WHIP under 1.20 since 2012. His 8.4 K/9 was on par with his career numbers, but he was somewhat lucky with opposing hitter having a .261 BABIP against him. For his career, that mark is .296. He also had a FIP of 3.93 last year, so some regression in 2018 seems likely. With a current ADP of 153.70, it might be wise to avoid him during your draft.

Undervalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

Lance McCullers, Houston Astros

After recording an ERA of 3.22 in both of his first two seasons in the majors, McCullers finished with an ERA of 4.25 in 2017. However, his WHIP (1.30), HR/9 (0.6) and FIP (3.10) indicate he was a bit unlucky last year in terms of his ERA. He posted an excellent 10.0 K/9, which was actually down from 11.8 in 2016. Considering his ERA should improve this season, he records a lot of strikeouts and he should get a lot of opportunities for wins on a great team, McCullers ADP of 145.15 is a bargain. He’ll have a better K/9 than Cole and could finish with a similar ERA and WHIP, so I’d much rather take him several rounds later.

Jacob Faria, Tampa Bay Rays

Faria faired well in his first taste of the big leagues last year, posting a 3.43 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9. In his 24 career starts at Triple-A, Faria posted similar numbers with a 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, but his K/9 was significantly higher at 10.5. He had a 10.7 K/9 in 27 career starts at Double-A as well, so he could see an uptick in that department this season. Faria is just 24 years old heading into 2018 and is already an important part of the Rays rotation. His current ADP is just 233.29, which is far too low considering his upside. Don’t be surprised if his numbers are better than Stroman’s at the end of the season.

Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs

Chatwood did not have a good season for the Colorado Rockies last year, finishing 8-15 with a 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.3 K/9. He was destroyed when he pitched in Coors Field, posting a 6.01 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 70.1 innings. He was a much better pitcher on the road though with a 3.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 77.1 innings. The move to the Cubs should do wonders for his value since his career ERA at Coors was an unsightly 5.17. With an ADP 269.64, he’s someone to consider targeting late in your drafts to add depth to your rotation, just don’t count on him for a lot of strikeouts.

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

The Outfield position has a lot of high-end talent this year with five players at the position arguably ranked inside the top ten for fantasy baseball. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some outfielders who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Five

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

Entering 2017, Trout had played in at least 157 games in four straight seasons. He averaged 33 home runs, 100 RBI, 113 runs scored and 23 steals per season during that stretch. Not only that, but he batted at least .299 three times. He was limited to just 114 games last year due to injury, but he still batted .306 with 33 home runs, 72 RBI, 92 runs scored and 22 steals. Those are crazy counting stats in such a limited time frame. He’s only getting better with his pitch selection, lowering his strikeout percentage while also increasing his walk percentage in four straight seasons. He’s not just the best outfielder in fantasy baseball either as I rank him number one overall.

Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies

Blackmon had a monster season in 2017, batting .331 with 37 home runs, 104 RBI, 137 runs scored, 14 steals and a .399 OBP. He led the majors in hits, runs scored, triples and total bases and was second in batting average only to Jose Altuve. To put his season into perspective, only four players had a higher slugging percentage last year than Blackmon. They were J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge. He did have extreme home and road splits, batting .391 with 24 home runs at Coors Field compared to .276 with 13 homers on the road. It’s going to be tough for him to so many home runs again this year, but he did have 29 homers and 82 RBI in 2016. His ability to hit for power, a high average and steal bases makes him one of the most valuable options in fantasy baseball.

Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

Betts established himself as an elite fantasy asset in 2016, hitting .318 with 31 home runs, 113 RBI, 122 runs scored and 26 steals. His counting stats were again stellar in 2017, but his batting average dropped to just .264. He had never batted below .291 in a season in the majors, leaving his owners who paid a lofty price for him on draft day somewhat disappointed with his overall production. However, his strikeout percentage, groundball to fly ball ratio and line drive percentage were all almost right on par with his career averages. The big difference is he had only a .268 BABIP last year after never finishing with one below .310 in his career. With a higher BABIP likely on tap for 2018, expect Betts to rebound with his batting average. The addition of Martinez also adds a power dimension that the Red Sox lineup was sorely lacking last year, which should help Betts as well. Get ready for a big season.

Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

Of all the outfielders not named Mike Trout, Harper might have the highest upside. He showed his immense potential in 2015, batting .330 with 42 home runs, 99 RBI and 118 runs scored on his way to winning the National League MVP. The reason why Harper is fourth on this list though is due to injuries and inconsistencies throughout his career. He has only played at least 147 games twice in his career, one of which was that stellar 2015 campaign. He has also batted above .300 only twice in six seasons. It can be frustrating to own him, but you shouldn’t be disappointed if he ends up being your first round pick. If everything falls right, he could end up finishing in the top three overall in fantasy.

Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees

As a testament to how deep the outfield position is, a guy who had 59 home runs and 132 RBI last season if fifth on this list. Stanton was unlike many of the games elite home run hitters too, managing to hit .281 and record a career-low 23.6% strikeout percentage. Injuries have been a concern for Stanton as well, limiting him to 123 games or less in four of the last six years. He mashes when he’s on the field though. The 2015 season might be the perfect example as he hit 27 home runs in just 74 games. Not only does he move to homer-friendly Yankee Stadium, but he’ll also be part of one of the most potent lineups in the league. If he can stay healthy, the sky is the limit. That’s a big if though, which is why he’s fifth on this list.

Overvalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds

There is no question that Hamilton is one of the premier base stealers in the league, recording at least 56 steals in four straight seasons. The problem is, that’s about all he does well. For his career, he is only batting .248 with a paltry .298 OBP. He’s never scored more than 85 runs in a season and has 17 career home runs. While steals are hard to find, it’s important to remember that it’s only one category. He’ll drag you down just about everywhere else, making it very hard to justify his current ADP in the NFBC of 61.85.

Andrew McCutchen, San Francisco Giants

McCutchen will be playing for someone other than the Pirates for the first time in his career and will be a key part of what the Giants hope is a vastly improved lineup. McCutchen was once an elite fantasy option, hitting at least 20 home runs and stealing at least 20 bases each season from 2011 through 2013. His power numbers are still there, hitting at least 23 homers in four straight years. He’s not the threat that he once was on the basepaths though, stealing a total of 28 bases in the last three seasons. The problem is if he’s not going to steal bases and isn’t a .300 hitter anymore, the ability to hit 25 home runs isn’t nearly as valuable as it used to be. His current ADP is 87.06, ahead of players who could provide similar production like Ryan Braun (113.24) and Adam Jones (146.55). Make sure you don’t overpay for McCutchen.

Ender Inciarte, Atlanta Braves

Inciarte played in a career-high 157 games last year, making his first All-Star team. He’s always hit for a high average, batting .295 for his career.  With at least 21 steals in two of the last three seasons, he can certainly provide value on the basepaths. However, he doesn’t hit for a lot of power, recording just 11 home runs last season. He had never hit more than six home runs in a year entering 2017. He also doesn’t drive in many runs, finishing with just 57 RBI last year. His current ADP of 120.21 seems awfully high for a player of his skillset. Adam Eaton is a reasonable comp in my eyes and his ADP is only 152.76. Buyer beware of Inciarte at his current price.

 

Undervalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

The Yankees lineup is loaded. They have premier hitters in Stanton, Judge, and Gary Sanchez and have excellent depth when you add in the likes of Greg Bird and Didi Gregorius. Gardner is expected to be the Yankees leadoff hitter again this season, which should leave him with a ton of opportunities to score runs. He has scored at least 90 runs three times in his career, but has the potential to score at least 100 runs for the first time this year. He also brings a nice combination of speed and power, hitting at least 16 home runs and stealing at least 20 bases in three of the last four years. Although it’s not flashy, he has a valuable .264 career batting average as well. His current ADP is 180.67, leaving him with plenty of value on draft day.

Stephen Piscotty, Oakland Athletics

Piscotty was a trendy pick to be a breakout player last year after batting .273 with 22 home runs, 85 RBI and 86 runs scored in 2016. He was a major disappointment though, batting just .235 with nine home runs and 39 RBI in 107 games. He gets a fresh start as a member of the Athletics and shouldn’t be someone you sleep on this season. Batting average was never an area of concern for him in the minors, hitting .287 over 405 games. He’s still just 27 years old and will be part of an Athletics lineup that has a lot of power. His current ADP is 292.2, which is a steal considering his upside.

Mallex Smith, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are rebuilding, trading away some key players this offseason. They especially have holes to fill in their outfield after trading both Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza Jr. Their outfield was projected to be Smith, Kevin Kiermaier and Denard Span after those moves, but then they signed Carlos Gomez. Gomez is the only right-handed hitter in the bunch, so he could end up with plenty of at-bats. Smith could work his way into regular playing time still, which would give him a chance to showcase his speed. He played just 81 games last year, but still stole 16 bases. He batted .270 as well, which helps considering he provides no power. His value is mostly limited to stolen bases, but he could steal somewhere between 30 and 40 bases under the right circumstances. With a current ADP of 351.12, Smith could be a very cheap source of steals. I’d much rather get him towards the end of a draft than spend a high pick on Hamilton.

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Shortstop

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Shortstop

There have been some elite fantasy options at shortstop in the last decade, but the position hasn’t always had great depth. That’s not an issue in 2018 as there are plenty of valuable options available. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some shortstops who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Shortstop

Trea Turner, Washington Nationals

Turner is a stolen base machine. Despite playing only 98 games due to injury last year, he still stole 46 bases. He has only played 198 career games in the majors but already has 81 steals. He also hit .284 last year and should be an asset in batting average again for 2018. Unlike some of the other elite base stealers though, Turner won’t kill you in the power department. In his last 171 games, he has 24 home runs. He’s going to hit at the top of one of the best lineups in baseball, further increasing his already lofty value. Not only is he the best fantasy shortstop, but he should finish in the top-five of fantasy in general if he can stay healthy.

Carlos Correa, Houston Astros

Correa took a big leap forward in the power department in 2017, hitting 24 home runs with a .550 slugging percentage. He posted a 39.5% hard hit percentage, helping to lead to a career-high .315 batting average. There really aren’t any negative things you can say about Correa’s game. He only had a 19.1% strikeout percentage compared to an 11% walk percentage and 40.7% of the balls he put in play were hit to center field. He did only steal two bases in 109 games, but you shouldn’t be expecting significant steals from him anyways as he only had 13 in 2016. You will likely have to use a second-round pick to get him depending on the size of your league, but he will be worth it.

Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians

Lindor thrived in his first full season in the majors in 2016, hitting .301 with 15 home runs, 78 RBI, 19 steals and 99 runs scored. Not profiled to be a big power hitter, Lindor was just that in 2017, slugging 33 round trippers. He also had 44 doubles, resulting in a .505 slugging percentage. His batting average did drop to .273, but he still stole 15 bases. His strikeout and walk percentages were the same in both 2016 and 2017, but he posted by far his best hard hit percentage in 2017 at 35.2%. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a slight decrease in home runs this year, but 25 home runs, 15 steals, and a .280 average are all reasonable expectations. If you miss out on Turner or Correa, Lindor is an excellent consolation prize.

Overvalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Shortstop

Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers

Seager has quickly become an excellent player for the Dodgers, recording at least 22 home runs and 77 RBI in both of his first two full seasons in the majors. He hit .295 with a .375 OBP last year, showing he can provide fantasy owners with both power numbers and batting average. With a career 42.1% hard hit percentage, he should be able to consistently hit for a high average as well. There isn’t really anything negative to say about Seager other than he doesn’t steal bases. However, his current ADP in the NFBC is 38.75. Players that are being selected well after Seager include Nelson Cruz (55.87), Christian Yelich (59.33) and Daniel Murphy (69.44). Shortstop is not a shallow position, so don’t feel forced to draft Seager so early.

Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers

After never hitting more than eight home runs in a season during the first eight years of his career, Andrus broke out with 20 homers in 2017. He also had 44 doubles, leading to a career-high .471 slugging percentage. He batted .297 with 88 RBI, 100 runs scored and 25 steals as well, providing one of the better all-around campaigns in the league.  The increased power numbers were likely because of a change in his approach at the plate. He had a career-low 5.5% walk percentage and pulled a career-high 44.8% of the balls he put in play. For comparison, his pull percentage for his career is 37.2%. He should still be able to provide plenty of value in batting average and stolen bases, but even with his changed approach at the plate, 20 homers will be tough to duplicate. His current ADP is 58.36, which is clearly banking on him to do just that. I’d pass on him at that price.

 

Undervalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Shortstop

Orlando Arcia, Milwaukee Brewers

Arcia struggled in his brief appearance in the majors in 2016, batting only .219 with four home runs in 55 games. He settled in nicely in 2017 though, batting .277 with 15 home runs, 53 RBI, and 14 steals. He had a career .282 average in the minor leagues, so his performance last year is closer to what you should expect from him moving forward. His OBP has never been particularly high and he swung at 38.7% of the pitches he saw outside the strike zone last year, which is an area where he’ll need to improve. However, it’s not unreasonable to expect him to hit .270 with 15 home runs and 15 steals this season. With a current ADP of 186.36, that type of production would be a bargain.

Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs

Russell had big expectations heading into last year after providing 21 home runs and 95 RBI in 2016. He couldn’t live up to the hype though, with injuries limiting him to just 110 games. He also dealt with an off-the-field issue which could have impacted his performance. The end result was only 12 home runs, 43 RBI, and a .239 average. Don’t forget, Russell is still only 24 years old. He still has excellent potential and while he might not hit for a high average, his power numbers could return with a healthy season. The once hot fantasy commodity now has an ADP of 259.37. I wouldn’t be afraid to take a chance on him that low in your draft.

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Third Base

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Third Base

Third base is loaded in fantasy baseball again this season with many of the premier players in the league manning the position. Several of the elite options are young as well, providing even more value if you play in a keeper or dynasty league. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some third basemen who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Third Base

Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

Arenado is one of the safest first-round picks in fantasy. He enters this season at only 26 years old but has hit at least 37 home runs to go along with at least 130 RBI and 97 runs scored in three straight seasons. His batting average and OBP have increased each of the last three years as well, topping out at .309 and .373, respectively, in 2017. He certainly benefits from playing in Coors field, batting .336 with 18 home and 76 RBI in 78 home games last year. While his batting average was lower on the road, he did still manage to slug 18 home runs last year away from Coors field. Arenado is not only the best option at third base, but he is arguably a top-five player in fantasy.

Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

Bryant was on his way to pushing Arenado for the best third baseman in fantasy after a monster 2016 season that saw him hit .292 with 39 home runs, 102 RBI and 121 runs scored. He took a step backward in 2017 though, hitting .295 with 29 home runs, 73 RBI, and 111 runs scored. The main reason for his decline in RBI was because he moved up in the batting order. In 2016, he batted third in 62 games and recorded 50 RBI. He hit second in 83 games, providing only 45 RBI. Bryant batted second in 110 games in 2017, finishing with just 59 RBI in those contests. With Bryant expected to bat second again this season, it will be difficult for him to reach his 2016 RBI total again. He’s still an elite talent though who hits for average and power, making him worthy of a late first-round, early second-round pick depending on the size of your league.

Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

Machado was expected to be one of the best players in fantasy in 2017 after batting at least .286 with at least 35 home runs, 86 RBI and 102 runs in back-to-back seasons. While his powers numbers were there last year with 33 home runs and 95 RBI, he batted just .259. Much of that can be attributed to a horrid first half where he hit just .230 in large part because of a .230 BABIP. He has a career .301 BABIP, so it’s no surprise that he improved to a .290 BABIP in the second half of the season. The result was a .290 average over that same stretch. He should see a significant improvement in batting average this season and could end up pushing Bryant for being the second-best fantasy option at third base. He is also moving to shortstop, which will give him a boost in value when he gains that added eligibility.

 

Overvalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Third Base

Mike Moustakas, Free Agent

Moustakas finally had his breakout season in 2017, hitting 38 home runs to go along with a .272 average. He finished with just 85 RBI and 75 runs scored though as 27 of his home runs were of the solo variety. He did appear to take a more aggressive approach at the plate, seeing only 3.78 pitchers per plate appearance, the second fewest of his career. Also, he struck out swinging on 96.8% of his strikeouts, by far the highest percentage of his career. He has yet to sign with a team, but it’s going to be hard for him to match his homer total from last season wherever he signs considering he had never hit more than 22 home runs in a season previously. His current ADP in the NFBC is too high at 118.30. Fellow third basemen Kyle Seager (137.64) and Adrian Beltre (158.42) could provide very similar numbers and are still available later in most drafts.

Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks

Lamb set career-highs last year with 30 home runs, 105 RBI, and 89 runs scored. His average was still poor though at just .248, the second straight season he hit below .250. Lamb tends to get off to a hot start before cooling off in the second half. He has batted .284 for his career in the first half of the season but has followed it up with a career average of just .220 in the second half. Home runs are becoming easier to find in fantasy, making Lamb less valuable than he may have been previously. There are no signs that he is going to improve his batting average this year, which should limit his overall value. His current ADP of 118.35 is right behind Moustakas, which is hard to justify based on his numbers.

Undervalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Third Base

Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers

Injuries plagued Beltre in 2017, limiting him to 94 games. He was excellent when he was on the diamond, batting .312 with 17 home runs, 71 RBI, and a .383 OBP. Although he will turn 39 this year, injuries had not been a recent problem with Beltre playing at least 143 games in each of the previous five seasons. A career .287 hitter, Beltre had also hit at least 28 home runs in five of his last seven seasons entering 2017. With his consistent power and a high batting average now being at a premium in fantasy, Beltre should be going higher than his current ADP of 158.42. Don’t sleep on him in your league.

Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics

Chapman got his first taste of the majors in 2017, batting .234 with 14 home runs and 40 RBI in 84 games. He only batted .244 for his career in the minors, so don’t expect to see any significant improvement from him in that area this year. However, he provides plenty of power, slugging .518 in the minors. He’ll strike out a lot, but he did have a walk percentage of at least 10.6% in each of his stops in the minors since 2015. His current ADP is only 284.97, which is 25th amongst players eligible at third base. He could provide 25 home runs and 80 RBI in a full season, leaving him as someone with value even with his poor average that late in a draft.

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

Second base provides a unique opportunity because you can go in any number of directions with the position. There are big power hitters, speedsters, and players that hit for high average littered throughout the position. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some second basemen who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

This is an easy one. Not only is Altuve the best second baseman, but I’d rank him second overall behind Angels outfielder Mike Trout. Altuve won the AL-MVP last year, batting .346 with 24 home runs, 81 RBI, 112 runs scored and 32 stolen bases. He had a career-high OPS+ of 164 and played in at least 147 games for the sixth straight season. His speed and ability to hit for a high average gave him significant value early in his career, but he’s moved into elite fantasy status by clubbing at least 24 home runs in back-t0-back seasons. He’s heading into the prime of his career at just 27 years old, so don’t expect him to slow down this season.

Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians

Ramirez made his mark on fantasy baseball in 2016, hitting .312 with 11 home runs, 76 RBI, and 22 steals. He also had 46 doubles, showing signs that a big power season might soon be on the horizon. That season came last year, finishing with 29 home runs. But wait, he also hit a league-leading 56 doubles. The result was a spectacular .583 slugging percentage, putting him inside the top-10 in the league. His power did not come at the expense of his batting average either as he still hit .318. His hard hit percentage has increased each season, topping out at 34% last year. He doesn’t have as much upside as Altuve, but his ability to contribute across the board makes him the clear second best option at the keystone position.

Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins

Dozier is a masher at second base, slugging at least 28 home runs in three straight seasons. It was going to be tough for him to match the 42 home runs that he hit in 2016, but he still hit 34 homers last year. He’s more than just a slugger though, scoring at least 100 runs and stealing at least 12 bases in four straight seasons. He hindered fantasy owners with his batting average early in his career but has hit at least .268 in back-to-back seasons. He had a hard hit percentage of at least 34.1% in both of those seasons, which was a big reason why his average improved. If you miss out on Altuve or Ramirez, draft Dozier with confidence.

Overvalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

Dee Gordon, Seattle Mariners

Steals are not easy to come by, but Gordon is one of the elite base stealers in all of baseball. He has led the league in steals three of the last four seasons, finishing with at least 58 steals all three times. The one year he didn’t lead the league was when he played just 79 games in 2016 due to a suspension. Amazingly, he still finished with 30 steals that year. Gordon is not just about steals though as he has a .293 career batting average and scored 114 runs last year. He’s going to play center field for the Mariners this year, but will still carry over second base eligibility. The Mariners have a potent lineup, which should leave Gordon with plenty of opportunities to score runs. The problem is, he has never hit more than four home runs or recorded more than 46 RBI in a single season. If your league counts OBP, his career mark of .329 is not impressive either. His current ADP in the NFBC is too high at 28.47, which is actually ahead of Dozier (37.87). Let someone else take him at that price.

Chris Taylor, Los Angeles Dodgers

Taylor was one of the biggest surprises in fantasy baseball last year. He played in only 120 total games the previous three seasons but played 140 games in 2017. He made the most of his opportunity, hitting .288 with 21 home runs, 72 RBI, 85 runs scored and 17 steals. One area of concern is his drastic splits though, batting .237 with a .306 BABIP at home compared to .336 with a .412 BABIP on the road. His overall numbers are valuable, but his current ADP of 90.83 is ninth-highest among second basemen. Marwin Gonzalez’s current ADP is 114.25 and he could provide very similar numbers outside of stolen bases, although he did steal eight bases last year. It might be wise to pass on Taylor if forced to select him so early.

Undervalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have one of the most flexible rosters in the league, but Happ should still get plenty of at-bats. He played in just 115 games last year, but still managed hit 24 home runs to go along with 68 RBI, 62 runs scored and eight steals. He batted only .253 though and struck out 31.2% of the time. The high strikeouts may have just been him getting adjusted to major league pitching as he never struck out more than 23.6% of the time during any of his stops in the minors. His current ADP is 137.46, which is a bargain considering his potential. Don’t be surprised if he finishes with a more productive season than Taylor.

Ian Kinsler, Los Angeles Angels

Today’s craze in baseball is young talent. There seems to more elite young players across the league now than in recent years, which can often make you forget about productive veterans in terms of fantasy. A lot of people might be down on Kinsler after a rough 2017 campaign that saw him hit a career-low .236. His numbers indicate he could rebound this season as last year he had only a .244 BABIP, well below his career mark of .286. Another possible indicator for improvement this year is that he also had a 37% hard hit percentage last year, which was the highest of his career. Yes, he’s getting older, but the numbers indicate he had few bounces go his way last year.  Not only should his average improve this year, but he is also a threat to hit 20 home runs and steal 15 bases. His current ADP is only 189.25, making him someone to target late in your draft.

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Catchers

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Catchers

The Catcher position has historically been a tough slot to fill in fantasy baseball. There is usually a small tier of excellent options, followed by a precipitous drop off to the next best group of players. This season will be no different. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some catchers who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Catchers

Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees

Sanchez has firmly established himself as the premier fantasy option at catcher. He had a monster campaign in 2017, hitting .278 with 33 home runs, 90 RBI, and a .345 OBP. He did all that in just 122 games as he missed almost a month at the beginning of the season due to injury. Although he’s only played in 175 games in his career, he has already hit a whopping 53 home runs. All of his supporting numbers back up his counting stats, so there is no indication that he should slow down this season. He’ll be part of a lethal lineup including fellow sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, which should leave him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. He will likely be drafted as early as the second or third round in your league, but he should be worth it based on how much better he is than any of the other catching options.

Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs

Like Sanchez, Contreras is another young catcher who has quickly vaulted himself into the upper echelon of the position. He played in just 117 games last year but batted .276 with 21 home runs, 74 RBI, and a .356 OBP. Sanchez posted a 4.1 WAR last season, but Contreras was right behind him with a 3.9 WAR. He batted .283 with a .356 OBP in 517 career minor league games, so he’s proven that he can hit for a high average and get on base. The second best fantasy option at catcher comes down to Contreras and Buster Posey, but I give Contreras the edge because he hits for much more power.

Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants

Posey has been as reliable as it gets for catchers, playing in at least 140 games in six straight seasons. That’s extremely valuable when you consider the volatility of the position. He’s been just as valuable in the batting average department, hitting a lofty .308 for his career. He also posted a .400 OBP last year and has an OBP of at least .362 in each of the last seven seasons. The problem with Posey is his power numbers have regressed, bottoming out at just 12 home runs last year. He only had 67 RBI as a result and while the Giants lineup should be improved this season, the lack of power will limit Posey’s upside. There is a big dropoff in production after you get past Posey when it comes to catchers, so it might be best to wait on the position if you can’t draft one of the top three options.

 

Overvalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Catchers

Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals

Molina had a stellar season last year, batting .273 with 18 home runs and 82 RBI. The problem is, he had only 19 home runs in the previous three seasons combined. He had also hit more than 14 home runs in a season only once in his career heading into last year. He had an 11% home run to fly ball ratio last year, which is significantly higher than his career mark of 7%. His ADP is 148.77 in the NFCB, the sixth highest among catchers. In terms of general draft position, that’s a higher ADP than players including Greg Bird (153), Adrian Beltre (159.27) and Gregory Polanco (160.59). Don’t overpay for Molina just because the catcher position is shallow, especially considering his abnormal 2017 campaign.

Mike Zunino, Seattle Mariners

Zunino was a valuable fantasy asset last season, setting career-highs in batting average (.251), home runs (25) and RBI (64). He’s shown he can hit for power previously in his career, but he had never batted above .214 in a single season. He is a candidate to see a significant drop in batting average as his BABIP was .355 last year. Prior to that, he had never had a BABIP above .267. With the jump in home runs across the league, his value takes a big hit if he hits closer to .200 this year. His current ADP is 161.10, ahead of players like Jon Gray (165.99), Brett Gardner (180.65) and Matt Carpenter (181.99). Again, you should be looking for value in your draft, so it would be wise not to reach for Zunino at that price.

 

Undervalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Catchers

Welington Castillo, Chicago White Sox

Castillo had a tremendous power season for the Orioles last year, hitting 20 home runs despite playing only 96 games. He hasn’t played more than 113 games in any of the last five seasons but has hit at least 13 home runs four times. With a 36.4% hard hit percentage for his career, he has been able to post BABIP of at least .336 in three of the last five years. He could reach a career-high in games played for a rebuilding White Sox team if he can stay healthy, giving him the potential to provide valuable numbers. His current ADP is tenth among catchers, but don’t be surprised if he finishes ranked higher than that when the season is all said and done.

Robinson Chirinos, Texas Rangers

Chirinos played in only 88 games last year but still managed to hit 13 home runs to go along with a .255 batting average. He’s never played more than 93 games in his career but has shown impressive power by hitting at least 10 home runs in three of the last four years. Not only did he have a 20% home run to fly ball ratio last year, but he also posted a career-high 11% walk percentage. He could be in line for a bit of a regression in terms of his batting average this year, but his overall numbers might not differ too much from Zunino’s. Considering he is being selected about 100 picks later in drafts, I’d much rather take a chance on Chirinos.

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: First Base

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: First Base

First base is one of the deepest positions in fantasy baseball. Not only are there several elite power hitters playing the position, but there are also many who can be difference makers in terms of batting average in your league. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some first basemen who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: First Base

Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks

Simply put, Goldschmidt is a monster. He has played at least 155 games in four of the last five years, recording at least 33 home runs, 110 RBI and 103 runs scored in three of those seasons. The one season where he didn’t reach those thresholds was in 2016 when he had 24 home runs, 95 RBI, and 106 runs scored. However, he made up for it by stealing a career-high 32 bases, which was the sixth-most in baseball that year. His counting stats are great and he has a career .299 batting average and a career .399 OBP, but it’s his ability to steal bases that makes him the best first baseman in fantasy. He has swiped at least 18 bases four times in his career and should continue to produce in that department this season. It’s not unreasonable to think that he will hit fewer home runs due to the addition of the humidor at Chase Field, but his overall numbers still make him stand out above the rest at his position.

Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

Votto had one of the best seasons of his career last year, batting .320 with 36 home runs, 100 RBI, and 16 runs scored. He posted a lofty .420 OBP, marking the seventh time in the last eight seasons that he recorded an OBP of at least .400. His eye at the plate is tremendous, swinging at a career-low 15.4% of pitches outside the strike zone in 2017. He’s been healthy as well, playing at least 158 games four of the last five years. He’s only hit at least 30 home runs twice in his career, so don’t be surprised if he sees some regression in that area this season. His 38% fly ball percentage last year was significantly higher than his career average of 33.5%. However, taking into consideration his production across the board, Votto is the second best fantasy option at first base for 2018.

Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

This was a close race between Freeman and Anthony Rizzo for the third spot. Rizzo has been extremely consistent, hitting at least 31 home runs and recording at least 101 RBI in three straight seasons. Freeman’s breakout in the power department came in 2016, hitting 34 home runs to go along with 91 RBI. He played in only 117 games last year but still managed to mash 28 round trippers. The reason Freeman gets the edge over Rizzo is because of his ability to hit for a higher average. Don’t get me wrong, Rizzo is no slouch, hitting at least .273 in four straight seasons. However, he’s never hit above .292 in his career. Freeman has batted at least .302 in three of the last five years and is a career .290 hitter. In a league where batting averages are being sacrificed for power, Freeman’s ability to provide excellent value in both areas makes him the third best first baseman heading into this season.

Overvalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: First Base

Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies

Hoskins will play the outfield for the Phillies this season but is still eligible at first base in fantasy. He burst onto the scene in 2017, hitting 18 home runs and recording 48 RBI in only 50 games. While that is impressive, that’s not a sustainable pace over the course of a full season. His average could actually improve this year though as he hit .259 despite a .241 BABIP. He is going to be a valuable player and is a vital part of the Phillies future, but his current ADP in the NFCB is 50.54. That’s seventh-highest among first baseman and higher than players such Nelson Cruz (55.60) and Daniel Murphy (68) when looking across all positions. First base is deep, so it might be a wise move to pass on Hoskins if forced to select him that early.

Carlos Santana, Philadelphia Phillies

The second Phillie to make this list, Santana will actually man first base this season. He’s been healthy throughout his career, playing in at least 152 games in six of the last seven years. He’s a fine player, but his fantasy value is limited in today’s current state of the game. Outside of an aberration season where he hit 34 home runs in 2016, he has never hit more than 27 home runs in a season. He has actually hit 23 homers or less in four of the last six seasons. He’s not going to hit for average either, batting just .249 for his career. His current ADP is 172.05, ahead of other first basemen including Matt Carpenter (180.19) and Yuli Gurriel (208.84). I’d much rather take a chance on someone with a higher upside than Santana based on where he is being selected in drafts.

Undervalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: First Base

Greg Bird, New York Yankees

Bird was plagued by injuries last year, limiting him to just 48 games. He was awful when he was on the field, batting just .190. He still flashed his power potential though with nine home runs. That was right on pace with his only other appearance in the majors in 2015 when he hit 11 home runs in 46 games. The difference was in 2015 he hit .261 with a .319 BABIP. He only had a .194 BABIP last year, so expect significant improvement in his average this year. In six minor league seasons, Bird hit .283 with a .397 OBP. The Yankees lineup is loaded as well, which should afford him with plenty of opportunities to produce. His current ADP is only 152.87, which is excellent value considering his upside. Don’t be surprised if he hits .270 with around 30 home runs this year.

Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants

Belt was limited to 104 games last year due to a concussion, but he still tied his career high with 18 home runs. While he regressed to a .214 batting average, he had just a .284 BABIP compared to his career BABIP of .333. He still had a 38.4% hard hit percentage and swung at a career-low 22% of pitches outside the strike zone. He’ s only turning 30 years old at the start of the season and has a better offense around him this year with the additions of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. His ADP is insanely low at 304.29, making him someone to target late in your drafts.

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Advanced stats are important in any sport, but they have especially changed the way we look at baseball. One important advanced stat to consider when drafting your fantasy baseball squad is batting average on balls in play, also known a BABIP.

As defined by BaseballReference.com, BABIP, “measures what happens when the player puts the ball in play on the field.” The formula to calculate BABIP is (H-HR)/ (AB – SO – HR + SF).

In 2017, the league average batting average was .255. Historically, the league average BABIP is usually right around .300. Now, that doesn’t mean just because a hitter has a BABIP above or below .300 that they are in line for a correction in 2018. You want to compare their BABIP more with their career marks and also consider their skill sets. For example, a fast runner who hits a lot of ground balls could have a high BABIP simply because they are able to leg out base hits that other runners with normal speed would not be able to.

It is also important to consider the type of contact that a player is making, whether they hit a lot of fly balls or line drives. A player who hits more hard line drives can have a high BABIP because the fielders could have a more difficult time reaching the ball to record an out. A player who hits a lot of weak fly balls is going to have a lower BABIP because they aren’t leaving themselves with a great opportunity to reach base.

All of that being said, let’s take a look at a few players who had an abnormally high or low BABIP last season and discuss how to project their batting averages for this season.

 

Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Garcia not only hit a career-high .330 last season, but it left him with the third-highest batting averaging in the league behind Jose Altuve and Charlie Blackmon. That’s some pretty impressive company. However, Garcia is a career .277 hitter, which is an immediate red flag.

A closer look at Garcia’s numbers shows he had a .392 BABIP last year, which was the highest in baseball. That screams candidate for regression, especially when you consider his career BABIP is just .340. Garcia even struck out less last year with a 19.8% strikeout percentage, which is almost three percent lower than his career average. His line drive percentage was 24%, which was spot on with his career mark.

He is still a talented young player who could have a valuable fantasy season, but make sure you aren’t drafting him with the expectation that he will hit for that high of an average again this year.

Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Zimmerman has played in over 1,500 career games, which gives us an example sample size to work off of. After dealing with injuries the last few seasons, Zimmerman was able to largely stay healthy in 2017 and played in 144 games. He finished with a career-high 36 home runs and recorded at least 100 RBI for the third time in his career. He had a sparkling .303 batting average, which was especially high considering he hasn’t batted above .280 since 2012.

However, a lot of his success can be attributed to his performance in the first half of the season when he batted .345. It’s no coincidence that he had an extremely high BABIP of .364 during that same time frame. His career BABIP is .311, so it made much more sense that he had a BABIP of .306 during the second half of the season. While the decline in BABIP, Zimmerman’s batting average was just .269 in the second half.

Health is always a major concern if you are drafting Zimmerman, but remember that his excessively high BABIP in the first half led to an inflated batting average for the season overall.

Zack Cozart, Los Angeles Angels

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Cozart is the only player on this list to change teams this winter as he signed with the Angeles after playing his entire career with the Cincinnati Reds. Cozart had the best season of his career in 2017, hitting .297 with 24 home runs, 63 RBI and 80 runs scored. He was able to cash that in for a three-year, $38 million contract. With how slow the market has moved this winter, that was a significant deal.

Another alarm should go off with Cozart though as he is only a career .254 hitter. He did most of his damage in the first half, batting .316 with a .358 BABIP. To put that into perspective, his career BABIP is only .280. He experienced a significant regression in the second half, batting just .272 with a .252 BABIP.

Cozart did drastically improve his walk percentage to 12.2% last season, but his 26% line drive percentage was actually two percent lower than both of the previous two seasons. Buyer beware if you are drafting him based on his batting average last season.

Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Betts was one of the hottest names in fantasy baseball heading into last year after hitting .318 with 31 home runs, 113 RBI, 122 runs scored and 26 steals in 2016. Even though the Red Sox offense as a whole took a step backward in 2017, Betts still had great counting stats with 24 home runs, 102 RBI, 101 runs scored and 26 stolen bases.

Betts couldn’t completely deliver on his lofty fantasy expectations though because he batted only .264 for the season. His strikeout percentage, groundball to fly ball ratio and line drive percentage were all almost right on par with his career averages. The big difference is he had only a .268 BABIP last year after never finishing with one below .310 in his career. It was low throughout the season, showing very little improvement in the second half.

Betts has an extremely high upside in fantasy and could have just had one of those “unlucky” seasons in terms of his BABIP considering his career numbers. Expect improvement in the batting average department from him this year.

Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Machado is also one of the most coveted offense players in fantasy. Not only has he developed into a premier power hitter, but he had hit at least .278 in four straight seasons leading into 2017. Although he stole 20 bases in 2015, he has only stolen nine total bases in two seasons since.

Machado saw a significant decline in his batting average in 2017, finishing the season hitting just .259. Much of that can be attributed to a horrid first half where he batted just .230 in large part due to his .230 BABIP. He has a career .301 BABIP, so it’s no surprise that he improved to a .290 BABIP in the second half of the season. He batted .290 over that same stretch.

Machado will be dealing with a position change this year, moving from third base to his natural position at shortstop. However, one constant that should return this year with a normal BABIP is his high batting average.

Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Odor has become one of the premier power-hitting second basemen in baseball, slugging at least 30 home runs in back-to-back seasons. He does not do a great job getting on base though with only a 4.2% walk percentage. He has logged 1,212 at-bats in the last two seasons but has only walked 51 times. His swinging strikes percentage has increased in each season of his career, topping out at 20.8% in 2017.

While he doesn’t walk much, Odor had a batting average of at least .259 in each of his first three seasons. He struggled mightily in that department last year, batting just .204. Much of that can be attributed to his .224 BABIP, which was almost 60 points lower than any previous season of his career. His inability to get on base limits his fantasy value, but it’s highly unlikely that he will hit just over .200 again this season.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and Off-Season Signings

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and Off-Season Signings

It might hard to believe it if you live in the NorthEast, but baseball season is just around the corner. With only about a month left before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, the time is now to start preparing for your fantasy baseball draft. In the first of our season preview series, we’ll take a look at some familiar players who have joined new teams and discuss the impact it will have on their fantasy value.

Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees

MLB Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and Off-Season Signings

The Yankees rebuild certainly didn’t take long. After trading away several veterans in the middle of the 2016 season, the Yankees progressed faster than expected in 2017, losing in the American League Championship Series to the Houston Astros. One of the big reasons for their success was the strength of their offense, which finished second in runs scored and first in home runs in all of baseball.

So how did they improve their team for this year? By bringing in another power hitter of course. The Yankees took advantage of the Marlins need to slash payroll, trading for the reigning NL MVP in Stanton with Starlin Castro being the only player of significance to the major league roster that they gave up.

Entering the 2017 season, Stanton had played 123 games or less in four of the previous five seasons. He managed to stay healthy though, missing only three games all year. He cashed in the added at-bats, setting career-highs in home runs (59), RBI (132) and runs scored (123). Unlike many of the games elite home run hitters, he still managed to hit .281 and finished with a career-low 23.6% strikeout percentage.

Stanton will now team up with Aaron Judge to form one of the elite power-hitting combinations in the league. It will be hard for Stanton to play 159 games again this year, but the good news is that he will get some time at designated hitter, which should help keep him fresh. He’s going to be part of a potent overall lineup and should again finish with excellent counting stats. From a batting average perspective, he might not experience significant regression either as his .288 BABIP was actually the lowest of his career. Expect him to have another valuable campaign and be a borderline first-round pick in fantasy.

Dee Gordon, Seattle Mariners

MLB Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and Off-Season Signings

Another member of the Marlins fire sale was Gordon, who was shipped to the Mariners and will now play center field. Gordon led the majors with 60 stolen bases last year, marking the third time in the last four seasons that he has stolen at least 58 bases. The only time he didn’t was when he was limited to 79 games in 2016 due to a suspension, finishing with 30 steals.

While most known for his ability to steal bases, Gordon’s fantasy value is much more than just that one category. He hit at least .308 in two of the last three seasons and scored 114 runs last year. He only has a 15.1% strikeout percentage for his career, which allows him to leg out some extra hits due to his speed.

Luckily for this season, he will still be eligible at second base and will eventually get you the added value of dual-position eligibility. He will be part of a powerful lineup that features Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager hitting behind him, so he should have plenty of opportunities to score runs again this year. Even without much power, he should still finish as one of the more valuable second base eligible players in fantasy, especially when you consider the scarcity of stolen bases.

Andrew McCutchen, San Francisco Giants

MLB Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and Off-Season Signings

The Giants desperately needed to find offense this winter, especially in their outfield. They decided to swing a deal with the Pirates for McCutchen, providing a significant boost to their lineup. While his stats don’t jump off the page, McCutchen has hit at least 21 home runs and recorded at least 79 RBI in each of the last seven seasons. He also does an excellent job of getting on base, posting an OBP of at least .363 in all but one season during his career.

While McCutchen can still provide value, it’s important to note that he doesn’t really excel in any one category. He used to provide value on the base paths, stealing at least 20 bases in each of the first five seasons of his career. However, he has stolen 11 bases or less in each of the last three seasons. He batted a respectable .279 last year, but that’s not going to be a difference maker in your league. He’s still someone to consider on draft day, but make sure you are drafting him based on his current production, not his high-profile name. If you are drafting based on the latter, you will likely overpay for him on draft day.

Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants

MLB Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and Off-Season Signings

The Giants were serious about making major additions to their lineup, also acquiring Longoria from the Rays. Longoria had spent his entire 10-year career with the Rays, becoming the face of the franchise. He’s had some excellent run-producing seasons, hitting at least 30 home runs four times and driving in at least 100 runs five times in his career. He’s also been extremely reliable, playing at least 160 games in each of the last four years.

Longoria is still a fine player, but he’s not nearly as valuable in fantasy as he once was. Besides an outlier season where he hit 36 home runs in 2016, he has hit 22 home runs or less in three of the last four seasons. He doesn’t do a great job of getting on base either, posting an OBP of .328 or lower in each of the last four years. Third base is a deep position in fantasy, which could leave Longoria outside the top-15 at the position.

Wade Davis, Colorado Rockies

MLB Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and Off-Season Signings

The Rockies were the beneficiaries of one of the better surprises at closer last year, getting 41 saves from Greg Holland. The majority of Holland’s success came over the first half of the season when he recorded 28 of his saves and a sparkling 1.62 ERA. The second half was much more of a struggle, finishing with a 6.38 ERA in 24 innings. The Rockies decided not to bring him back for 2018, instead signing Davis to a hefty three-year contract.

Davis had 32 saves for the Cubs last year and a 2.30 ERA, which was actually the first time he finished with an ERA above 2.00 since 2013. He also posted a 12.1 K/9, which was the second highest of his career. When a pitcher moves to Coors Field, there is always a concern that their stats could regress pitching in such a hitter-friendly environment. Davis did give up six home runs last year, which were three more than the previous three seasons combined. However, his ground ball to flyball ratio was 0.70, which is very close to his career ratio of 0.67.

The big increase was in his home run to flyball percentage, which was 9.1%. That’s significantly up from his career mark of 6.5%. While I don’t think he’ll come close to replicating the excellent three-year stretch he had with the Royals prior to last season, he should still finish the season as a top-10 closer.

Carlos Santana, Philadelphia Phillies

MLB Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and Off-Season Signings

The rebuilding Phillies added a significant bat to their lineup, signing Santana to a three-year contract early on in free agency. He’ll take over as their everyday first baseman after spending the first eight years of his career with Cleveland.

Santana had spectacular power season in 2016, hitting 34 home runs and slugging .498. Other than that season, he’s never hit more than 27 home runs or slugged above .457 in any of his full seasons in the majors. He hasn’t been a significant run producer either, recording 87 RBI or less in each season of his career.

The positives for Santana is that he gets on base, posting an OBP of at least .363 in five of the last six years. He’s also done a nice job cutting down on his strikeouts, with his strikeout percentage decreasing in each of the last three seasons. However, based on his low batting average and limited ceiling, he’s a borderline top-20 first baseman.

Marcell Ozuna, St. Louis Cardinals

MLB Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and Off-Season Signings

Ozuna established himself as one of the top outfielders in the league last year, finishing the season batting .312 with 37 home runs, 124 RBI, and 93 runs scored. He showed an improved eye at the plate, setting a career best with a 9.4% walk percentage, which was more than two percent higher than any of his previous four seasons.

Like Stanton and Gordon, he too was a part of the fire sale in Miami and will now roam the outfield for the Cardinals. His power will be a welcomed addition as the Cardinals finished in the bottom half of the league in home runs last season.

The Marlins were certainly a flawed team, but they had a potent lineup with Ozuna, Stanton, Gordon, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto and Justin Bour. The Cardinals have some talented hitters, but their lineup doesn’t project to be as deep as the Marlins was last year. Ozuna will still likely be a top 15-to-20 outfielder, but he could experience some regression in counting stats.

Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros

MLB Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and Off-Season Signings

The defending World Seris champs aren’t resting on their laurels this winter, making a big trade with the Pirates to add Cole to their starting rotation. The Astros already have one of the best lineups in baseball, but now boast a solid starting trio of Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, and Cole.

Cole’s best season with the Pirates came in 2015 when he finished 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 208 innings. However, his numbers have declined in the two years since, finishing last year 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA and 196 strikeouts in 203 innings. His main problem in 2017 was a massive increase in home runs allowed. He only allowed 29 home runs from 2014 through 2016 but gave up a whopping 31 in 2017 alone. When you add in the fact that he also issued a career-high 55 walks, you get the big jump in ERA.

There is a reason for optimism this year though as his ground ball to flyball ratio was 0.85 last year, which is almost right on pace with his career mark. His home run to flyball percentage jumped all the way up to 11.3%, almost double his previous career high. With some regression to the norm this season, Cole should get his ERA back down under 4.00. He’s a reliable source for strikeouts and should have plenty of chances to rack up wins on a great team, making him a top-25 starting pitcher with upside.