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MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 12

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
June special! Use Code PAMLB30 at checkout

If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 12

Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves: vs. NYM, vs. SD

The Braves have plenty of impressive young talent, including Foltynewicz, who has become one of their best starting pitchers. He had struggled in each of the last two seasons, finishing with an ERA of at least 4.31 and a WHIP of at least 1.30 both years. This season has been a completely different story, though, as he has a 2.31 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP across his first 13 starts. One big reason for his improvement has been his increased strikeouts as he has a 10.7 K/9. He gets two excellent matchups in Week 12 against the Mets and Padres, both of which are in the bottom third in the league in runs scored. The Padres also have the second-most strikeouts (627) in baseball.

Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros: at OAK, at KC

The Astros have such a deep starting rotation that McCullers is sometimes overlooked. He doesn’t have the dominant numbers that Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander have, but his 3.94 ERA and 3.74 FIP are still valuable. Most of the damage against him this season came in two starts where he allowed a combined 15 runs. He has actually allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his 13 starts. He doesn’t allow many base runners with a 1.20 WHIP and he has a 9.1 K/9 as well.  This will be his third time facing the Athletics this season and he handled them well the first two times, allowing two runs to go along with 10 strikeouts in 12 innings. His second start of the week is favorable as well since the Royals have scored the fifth-fewest runs (252) in baseball.

Clay Buchholz, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. PIT, vs. NYM

With Robbie Ray (oblique) on the DL, they had to turn to Buchholz to join the starting rotation. Buchholz certainly had some excellent seasons with the Red Sox earlier in his career, but he had a 4.78 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in his last full season in the majors in 2016. He’s given the Diamondbacks more than they could have expected through his first four starts this year by posting a 1.88 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and a 7.9 K/9. His 3.35 FIP indicates he hasn’t exactly been as dominant as his numbers look and he’s also been lucky that three of his starts have come against bad offensive teams in the Mets, Giants, and Marlins. The Pirates are no cake walk, but they do have more trouble against right-handed pitchers. He also gets to face the Mets again, leaving him as a viable streaming option who is still available in 63% of Yahoo! leagues.

Blaine Hardy, Detroit Tigers: vs. MIN, at CWS

With the trade of Verlander to the Astros last year, the Tigers officially signaled it was time to rebuild. They entered this season with little starting pitching depth, which became even worse when Jordan Zimmermann (shoulder) and Francisco Liriano (hamstring) went down. Hardy had pitched in relief the last four seasons but has now been forced into the rotation. He’s pitched well in his five starts, recording a 3.81 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. However, he only has a 5.7 K/9 over that stretch and has never been a big strikeout pitcher in his career. Although he has only made five starts this year, he has already faced both the Twins and the White Sox. He allowed two runs and recorded four strikeouts in five innings against the Twins. He was even better against the White Sox, allowing one run and recording six strikeouts in seven innings. The White Sox have the fifth-lowest OPS against lefties (.674) in baseball, so his strong performance against them is not all that surprising. Hardy is still available in 97% of Yahoo! leagues and is someone to consider if you are in a deep league.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 12

Daniel Mengden, Oakland Athletics: vs. HOU, vs. LAA

The Athletics have had a lot of problems with their starting rotation this year, but Mengden hasn’t been one of them. His sparkling 1.02 WHIP has helped him post a 3.45 ERA through 13 starts. He has been a bit lucky, though, as opponents have only a .242 BABIP against him. He has also allowed a 37.8% hard-hit rate. His lack of overpowering stuff doesn’t help his cause either, which has resulted in a 5.9 K/9. Both the Astros and Angels are in the top-eight in baseball in runs scored and have had success against Mengden previously this season, making him a risky play for Week 12.

Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals: at NYY, at TOR

Roark has had an inconsistent career. He had an ERA of 2.85 or lower in 2014 and 2016, but an ERA of at least 4.38 in 2015 and 2017. He’s back to pitching better this season with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. His ERA could be on the rise, though, since opponents have just a .245 BABIP. His first matchup for Week 12 is horrible on the road against the Yankees, who mash at Yankee Stadium. The Blue Jays aren’t nearly as potent offensively, but he they do have the eighth-highest home OPS (.746) in baseball. This could be an ugly week.

Mike Leake, Seattle Mariners: vs. LAA, vs. BOS

Leake is on a roll right now, allowing two runs or fewer in each of his last four starts. His ERA is down to 4.46, but his 1.2 HR/9 and 5.6 K/9 don’t exactly instill confidence moving forward. It should also be noted that three of those starts came against the Twins and the Rays, both of which are in the bottom-third of baseball in runs scored. He’ll get two very tough opponents in the Angels and Red Sox in Week 12, so get him out of your lineup if you have been riding his hot hand.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 11

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
June special! Use Code PAMLB30 at checkout

If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 11

Luis Severino, New York Yankees: at DET, at NYM

The Yankees potent lineup gets the majority of the headlines, but Severino is just as important as anyone on the team. He put together a breakout campaign in 2017, finishing with a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a 10.7 K/9. He’s been even better through his first 12 starts this year with a 2.31 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and a 10.6 K/9. His average fastball velocity is 98.2 mph and he has thrown a first-pitch strike to an impressive 70.1% of the batters that he has faced. The Mets are tied for the fourth-fewest runs scored (230) in baseball and the Tigers lineup has been middle of the pack, leaving Severino with the potential for an extremely valuable week.

Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals: vs. MIA, at CIN

Martinez has not pitched in almost a month due to a strained lat, but he will be activated from the disabled list Tuesday. He had a sparkling 1.62 ERA before the injury, but his 3.35 FIP and .237 opponents BABIP indicate he has been a bit lucky. The FIP is still good, though, and he’s only allowed one home run in 50 innings. His first start of the week comes against a Marlins team that has scored the fewest runs (196) in baseball. The Reds are certainly better offensively, but Martinez has already faced them twice this year, throwing 13 scoreless innings while recording 18 strikeouts. Get him right back into your lineup.

Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs: vs. PHI, vs. PIT

Hendricks isn’t a big strikeout pitcher with a 7.6 K/9 for his career. He doesn’t walk many hitters and does a good job keeping runners off base in general, which has helped him quietly become a very successful pitcher. He’s off to another good start this year with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He doesn’t get hit hard often, allowing more than three earned runs in a game only one time this season. The Phillies are in the bottom-third of the league in runs scored and while the Pirates have scored more runs, Hendricks has held them to four runs in 11 innings in their first two meetings this year.

Nick Tropeano, Los Angeles Angels: vs. KC, at MIN

Tropeano missed the entire 2017 season after having Tommy John surgery and hasn’t made more than 13 starts in a season during his career. He’s been able to make eight starts so far this year, posting a 3.80 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. His 4.91 FIP and 1.6 HR/9 are a bit concerning, limiting his upside over the course of the season. This is setting up to be a nice week for him, though, against the Royals and Twins as neither team scores a ton of runs. He has already faced both teams once this season, throwing 6.2 scoreless innings and recording six strikeouts against the Royals while allowing three runs to go along with two strikeouts in six innings against the Twins. Tropeano is still available in 82% of Yahoo! leagues and is a viable streaming option.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 11

Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks: at SF, at COL

Godley isn’t off to a great start with a 4.38 ERA and a 4.44 FIP through 11 outings. His success last year was in large part due to his 1.14 WHIP, which has ballooned to 1.54 this year. His .316 BABIP allowed isn’t much higher than his career mark, which is not good news for his value moving forward. His first matchup this week against the Giants is not bad, but his second outing in Coors Field could be a nightmare. That game alone is a reason to keep him on your bench in Week 11.

Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres: vs. ATL, at MIA

It’s been another underwhelming season for Richard, who has a 4.74 ERA and a 4.14 FIP in 12 starts. His 1.31 WHIP isn’t terrible, but he has very little strikeout upside with a 5.9 K/9 for his career. His second start this week against the Marlins is a great matchup, but don’t get too excited about him as a streaming option. The Braves are not only tied for the fourth-most runs scored (293) in baseball, but they also have the highest OPS against lefties (.806). Since he likely won’t provide a lot of strikeouts even in his start against the Marlins, it might be best to avoid him altogether.

Jason Vargas, New York Mets: vs. BAL, vs. NYY

Vargas won a career-high 18 games for the Royals last year and made the All-Star team for the first time. He moved to the Mets in the offseason but he has been limited to six starts due to injury. He was hammered in his first three outings but hasn’t given up a run in two of his last three starts. One of those came against the Braves, which is particularly impressive considering their success against lefties. Even with his recent success, you still want to stay away from streaming him this week. The Orioles aren’t exactly imposing, but the Yankees have the second-highest OPS against lefties (.799) and can still do a ton of damage even without the luxury of having the DH playing at Citi Field.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 10

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
May special! Use Code PAMLB30 at checkout

If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 10

Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels: at DET, vs. TEX

Despite the Angels using a six-man rotation, they have no off days this week, which will lead to Skaggs getting a rare two-start week. Skaggs is pitching well with a 3.11 ERA, 3.65 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP this year. He’s not a glaring regression candidate either with a .306 BABIP allowed that is almost right in line with his career mark. One of his big improvements has been his 10.6% swinging-strike rate that has resulted in a 9.7 K/9. Both the Tigers and Rangers are middle-of-the-pack in terms of runs scored and Skaggs actually held the Rangers to one run while recording seven strikeouts over five innings earlier this season.

Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres: vs. MIA, vs. CIN

Ross finally looks like the pitcher he was before having thoracic outlet surgery in 2016. Last year was a disaster with the Rangers, but rejoining the Padres seems to have been a wise move on his part. He has already thrown more innings than he did last year and has excelled, recording a 3.13 ERA and 3.35 FIP. He threw a first-pitch strike to only 46.2% of the batters he faced in 2017 but has shown much more control this year, throwing a first-pitch strike 59.1% of the time. His strikeouts are back up as well with a 9.5 K/9. His first start of the week is a great matchup against a Marlins team that has scored the fewest runs in baseball. The Reds will be a tougher task, but they don’t exactly have an overpowering offense either.

Caleb Smith, Miami Marlins: at SD, at ARI

After getting a brief taste of the majors with the Yankees last year, Smith was traded to the rebuilding Marlins in the offseason. The Marlins were lacking starting pitching depth, resulting in Smith being a member of their rotation right out of the gate. He’s made a case to stay there for the foreseeable future, recording a 3.83 ERA, 3.04 FIP and 1.22 WHIP across 10 starts. He’s been a stellar source for strikeouts with an 11.9 K/9. If he is going to continue to have success, he’s likely going to need to cut down his 4.6 BB/9 significantly as the season wears on. This could be a great week for him, though, facing the Padres and Diamondbacks, two teams in the bottom-six in baseball in runs scored. Smith is currently available in 68% of Yahoo! leagues and is one of the stronger streaming options for Week 10.

Adam Plutko, Cleveland Indians: vs. CWS, at MIN

Josh Tomlin was a disaster to begin the season, which has resulted in Plutko getting a chance to start. He was pitching well at Triple-A with a 2.25 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher with a career 7.5 K/9 in the minors, but he has done a good job keeping runners off base with a 1.17 WHIP. He’s made two starts in the majors this year and threw six shutout innings with four strikeouts in his last outing against the Cubs. The White Sox and the Twins are both in the bottom-five in baseball in runs scored, so Plutko is someone to consider this week if you are desperate for pitching. He is still available in 94% of Yahoo! leagues.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 10

Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles: vs. WAS, vs. NYY

Bundy has been about as unpredictable as it gets this season. He has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his 11 starts but has also given up at least seven runs three times. Homers have been a problem for him throughout his career and he has already allowed 14 in 62.2 innings this season. The Yankees have hit the most home runs in baseball and the Nationals have hit the fifth-most, so this could be the week to sit Bundy.

Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays: at BOS, at DET

Sanchez has been able to stay healthy, but his 4.07 ERA and 4.93 FIP are nothing to write home about. He’s allowing way too many baserunners with a 1.52 WHIP, largely because of his 5.5 BB/9. He’s never been a big strikeout pitcher either with a career 6.9 K/9. This will already be his third start of the season against the Red Sox, allowing five runs (four earned) across 11 innings in the first two. He did give up a home run in each start, though, and issued five walks, so he was anything but dominant. The Tigers start isn’t a horrible matchup, but having to face the Red Sox again makes him a risky option for your lineup.

Brandon McCarthy, Atlanta Braves: vs. NYM, vs. WAS

McCarthy is another pitcher who has flirted with danger this season with a 1.58 WHIP. He has been a bit unlucky with opponents posting a .350 BABIP against him, but he’s not fooling many hitters with just a 7.0% swinging-strike rate. He doesn’t pitch deep into games either, throwing at least six innings in only two of his 10 starts. The Mets and Nationals both have trouble hitting left-handed pitching, but they are also both in the top-10 in baseball in OPS against right-handers. Without much strikeout upside, McCarthy just isn’t worth the risk.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 9

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 9

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 9

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers: vs. COL, vs. SD

Buehler had the worst start of his brief major league career in his last outing against the Marlins, allowing five runs (four earned) in five innings. He still finished with seven strikeouts and has an 11.3 K/9 through five starts. His 2.67 ERA and 2.21 FIP haven’t been aided by luck either since opponents have a .313 BABIP against him. He catches a break in his first start facing the Rockies at home instead of at Coors Field. He’ll then start against the Padres for the second time this season after recording eight strikeouts in six scoreless innings in their first matchup.

Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals: vs. KC, at PIT

Unlike Buehler, Mikolas is not a big strikeout pitcher with only a 6.5 K/9. However, he works ahead in the count by throwing a first-pitch strike to 69.9% of the batters that he has faced and doesn’t walk hardly anyone with a 0.9 BB/9. His excellent control has helped result in a 1.05 WHIP, which is key to his success due to his lack of strikeouts. He’ll get the good fortune of facing the Royals at home who already don’t have a great offense, but will also be without the use of the DH. He’ll also get his second start against the Pirates after he allowed two runs to go along with seven strikeouts over seven innings in their first meeting. Expect another valuable week from Mikolas.

Chase Anderson, Milwaukee Brewers: vs. ARZ, vs. NYM

Anderson (illness) is expected to be activated from the DL and start Monday. He dealt with a bout of food poisoning and only missed the minimum 10 days, so don’t expect him to be limited at all moving forward. His 3.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season look nice, but his 6.01 FIP and .210 opponents BABIP due raise a concern for regression. The good news is he has two favorable matchups coming his way this week. The Diamondbacks have scored the third-fewest runs (176) in baseball this season and are without one of their best hitters in A.J. Pollock (thumb). Then he’ll take on the Mets, who have also struggled by scoring the fifth-fewest runs (178). Don’t hesitate to activate him from the DL and insert him back into your lineup right away.

Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles: at CWS, at TB

Gausman has had two horrible starts this season. In his first start, he was lit up for six runs in four innings against the Twins. In his last outing, he allowed six runs in 4.2 innings against the Red Sox. Inbetween that though, he allowed two runs or fewer in six of seven starts. He’s had a problem with home runs throughout his career and has allowed 10 already this season, but five of those came in those two bad starts. Week 9 isn’t shaping up to be a difficult week with his first start coming against a White Sox team that has scored the second-fewest runs (166) in baseball. He’ll then face a Rays offense that is certainly better but is still middle of the pack in terms of runs scored. In his first start against them this season, Gausman held the Rays to two runs while recording six strikeouts in 7.2 innings.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 9

Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves: at PHI, at BOS

Foltynewicz has made significant strides this season with a 2.87 ERA and 10.9 K/9 through nine starts. He’s had control issues though with a 4.6 BB/9, resulting in a 1.34 WHIP. He’s already made three starts against the Phillies this season and has been successful, holding them to five runs (four earned) while recording 21 strikeouts in 17 innings. However, his second start this week against the Red Sox is concerning. He can’t afford to walk so many hitters against their potent lineup, so that start alone might make him a candidate to be benched for Week 9.

Jake Faria, Tampa Bay Rays: vs. BOS, vs. BAL

Faria hasn’t been able to follow up his strong rookie campaign, posting a 5.20 ERA and 1.31 WHIP across nine starts. He’s issuing more walks and recording fewer strikeouts, which is certainly not a recipe for success. The Red Sox have hit him hard in two starts this season, scoring nine runs in 5.2 innings. The Orioles have also had success against Faria in two games this year, scoring 11 runs in 10.1 innings. Keep him anchored to your bench.

Matt Harvey, Cincinnati Reds: vs. PIT, at COL

Harvey hasn’t pitched more than four innings in either of his first two starts with the Reds. He didn’t allow a run in his first outing but allowed three runs in his second start against the Giants. The Reds are desperate for starting pitching and decided to take a chance on Harvey, but he’s not someone you even want to think about streaming this week. First, he’ll face a Pirates team that has scored the fifth-most runs (225) in baseball. Then he has to travel to hitter-friendly Coors Field.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 8

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 8

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 8

Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. MIL, at NYM

Corbin has continued his torrid start, posting a 2.12 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 11.8 K/9 through eight starts. Not only is he recording strikeouts at the highest rate of his career, but he also has an excellent 2.3 BB/9. It is likely he is going to see some regression at some point though considering opponents have just a .217 BABIP against him. That may not come this week though with two matchups that lean heavily in his favor since the Brewers and Mets have the two lowest OPS’s in baseball against left-handed pitchers. If there was ever a time to sell high on him, it might be after this week.

Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers: at MIA, at WAS

Wood’s 3.60 ERA is solid, but his performance this season has been even better when you consider he gave up seven runs in 3.2 innings in one game against the Athletics. He has done a great job limiting homers again with a 0.6 HR/9 and doesn’t walk many batters either, helping lead him to a 1.00 WHIP. His strikeout upside isn’t off the charts, but he can still provide value in the category with an 8.3 K/9 for his career. His first start for Week 8 brings the Marlins, who have scored the fewest runs (138) in baseball. He’ll then face the Nationals, who have the sixth-lowest OPS (.673) against lefties. He has actually already faced them once this season, allowing three runs (two earned) to go along with four strikeouts in six innings. Look for Wood to provide plenty of value in these two games.

Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies: at SD, at SF

Much like Wood, Anderson has had one bad start that has thrown off his numbers, allowing seven runs in 2.1 innings against the Diamondbacks in his first start of the season. Since then, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of seven starts. He has had some control issues with a 4.0 BB/9, but he also has a career-high 9.4 K/9. He will be facing the Padres for the third time this season, allowing two runs to go along with 12 strikeouts in 12 innings across his first two starts. Both the Padres and the Giants are in the bottom seven in baseball in terms of runs scored, so Anderson could be a viable streaming option this week. He is still available in 80% of Yahoo! leagues.

Mike Minor, Texas Rangers: at SEA, at CWS

Minor’s transition back into a starting role in the majors for the first time since 2014 hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been a disaster either. Through seven starts, Minor has a 4.73 ERA and 4.55 FIP. He’s allowing too many home runs with a 1.4 HR/9, but he does have a 1.20 WHIP. His .284 BABIP allowed is close to his career mark, but his 41.8% hard-hit rate allowed is abnormally high. This could be the week to take a chance on him though if you need starting pitching help. The Mariners just lost one of their best offensive players in Robinson Cano (hand) and the White Sox have the fourth-lowest OPS (.663) against left-handers. Minor is still available in 90% of Yahoo! leagues.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 8

Jose Quintana, Chicago Cubs: vs. ATL, at CIN

Quintana’s 4.42 ERA this season isn’t terrible, but he’s lucky it’s even that low considering his 1.47 WHIP. Control has been an issue, allowing 4.4 BB/9 and throwing a first-pitch strike to only 62.5% of the batters that he has faced, which would be his lowest mark since his rookie season. He had an excellent 9.9 K/9 last year, but that was much higher than the 7.8 K/9 he has for his career. He’s regressed back to a 7.9 K/9 this season, so we may have just seen a one-year anomaly. The Braves have one of the best lineups in all of baseball and the Reds have the 10th highest OPS (.765) against lefties, so this may not be the week to ride with Quintana.

Joey Lucchesi, San Diego Padres: vs. COL, at PIT

The Padres desperately need quality starting pitching and Lucchesi has stepped up in his first taste of big league action, recording a 2.98 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 9.8 K/9. He’s had some problems providing length though, throwing 5.2 innings or fewer in six of his eight starts. His .292 BABIP allowed isn’t low, but his 39.3% hard-hit rate allowed is concerning. This week could bring a mixed bag of results based on his two opponents. He’ll face the Rockies for the third time, allowing two unearned runs to go along with 15 strikeouts in the first two starts. However, the Rockies are tied for the seventh-highest OPS (.774) against lefties. The Pirates absolutely mash lefties with a .850 OPS against them, which is almost 40 percentage points higher than any other team.

Francisco Liriano, Detroit Tigers: vs. CLE, at SEA

Liriano’s 3.35 ERA looks nice, but he’s been playing with fire due to a 4.5 BB/9. He has a 1.17 WHIP, but that’s largely been aided by opposing hitters recording just a .226 BABIP. He doesn’t provide much in the way of strikeouts either with a 6.5 K/9. Liriano did hold the Indians to two runs in six innings earlier this season, but their lineup is rolling right now and they are in the top 10 in terms of OPS against left-handed pitchers overall. The Mariners matchup is better without Cano, but they still have some excellent power bats that can take advantage of Liriano if he doesn’t cut down on his walks. Without much strikeout upside, it’s not worth trying to stream Liriano for Week 8.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 6

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 6

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

We are heading into the month of May and while you normally don’t want to read too much into early stats, the sample size is starting to get large enough where some information can be gained on players values moving forward. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. He are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 6

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals: vs. PIT, vs. PHI

Scherzer is certainly one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in baseball, posting a K/9 of at least 10.1 in six straight seasons. His strikeout rate has actually increased in three-straight seasons as well. He doesn’t give up much solid contact either with opponents posting just a 28.4% hard-hit rate against Scherzer for his career. He’s been dominant again this season, recording a 1.62 ERA, 1.77 FIP, 0.82 WHIP and 13.2 K/9 through six starts. The Pirates have been a good offensive team this year, but fare much better against left-handed pitching, hitting .284 against them compared to .255 against righties. The Phillies have the second-most strikeouts in baseball, so this could be a monster week from Scherzer.

Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays: at MIN, at TB

Sanchez looked like one of the young emerging pitchers in baseball in 2016, finishing 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Blister problems derailed his 2017 campaign though, throwing only 36 innings. The blister problems seem to be behind him this year, already throwing 31.2 innings through five starts. He has a respectable 3.69 ERA, but his 1.33 WHIP and 4.3 BB/9 are a cause for concern. He’s not a strikeout pitcher either with a career 6.9 K/9. When he’s pitching well, he’s getting a lot of ground balls and keeping the ball in the ballpark, recording a 56.1% ground-ball rate and 0.8 HR/9 for his career. The Twins have scored the third-fewest runs in baseball and the Rays aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut either, leaving Sanchez with the potential for a valuable week.

Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox: vs. KC, at TEX

His 4.19 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 2017 don’t jump off the page, but Rodriguez did have a 9.8 K/9. He threw a first-pitch strike to 61.2% of the batters that he faced, which was the highest mark of his career. He’s off to a similar start this season with a 3.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9 through four outings. Both the Royals and Rangers are in the bottom 10 in baseball in terms of runs scored with the Royals actually scoring the second-fewest runs in the league. Add that to Rodiguez’s strikeout upside and he could be in line for a valuable two-start week.

Sean Newcomb, Atlanta Braves: at NYM, vs. SF

The Braves are loaded with young talent, including Newcomb, who they are relying on to be an important part of their starting rotation. He’s had control issues in his brief Major League career, posting a 5.0 BB/9 through 127.2 innings. The good news is he doesn’t allow a lot of solid contact with a 27.4% hard-hit rate for his career. Add in his 9.7 K/9 last year and he can provide value despite his high walk rate. His first matchup this week against the Mets is excellent since they have the fifth-lowest batting average against left-handed pitchers (.219) this season. His second start brings the Giants, who have scored the sixth-fewest runs (100) in baseball. Newcomb is still available in 75% of Yahoo! leagues, so consider picking him up if you need a starting pitcher this week.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 6

Sonny Gray, New York Yankees: at HOU, vs. CLE

Gray posted a 3.72 ERA after being traded to the Yankees last year, but his 4.87 FIP indicates that he did not pitch nearly that well. He’s been terrible out of the gates this season with a 7.71 ERA and 2.14 WHIP. Opponents do have an abnormally high .375 BABIP against Gray, but he’s not doing himself any favors with a 6.9 BB/9. The Indians aren’t a great offensive team, but his matchup against the potent Astros lineup is scary. He won’t continue to pitch this poorly over the course of the season, but this might not be the week that he rights the ship.

Jakob Junis, Kansas City Royals: at BOS, vs. DET

Junis’ numbers look impressive with a 3.34 ERA and 0.87 WHIP through five starts. However, he hasn’t pitched nearly that well. He has a 5.78 FIP and has been extremely lucky with opponents registering a meager .155 BABIP. He has also allowed eight home runs in just 32.1 innings. That’s a recipe for disaster in a start against the Red Sox this week. He has pitched extremely well in two previous starts against the Tigers this season, but he may have already dug too big of a hole for your fantasy team to get out of by then.

Matt Koch, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. LAD, vs. HOU

Koch hasn’t exactly put up overwhelming numbers during his career in the minors, recording a 4.54 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 5.7 K/9 in 505 innings. He’s only allowed three earned runs across 12 innings in his first two starts this season, but opponents have just a .194 BABIP. He’s allowed a 35.1% hard-hit rate as well, so don’t get too excited about two good starts. He’ll face two of the top 10 offenses this week in terms of runs scored, so keep him out of your lineup.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 5

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 5

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

As we get ready to approach May, we’re finally moving away from the cold weather that has led to some abnormal starts this season. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. He are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 5

Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians: at BAL, vs. SEA

Carrasco is off to a great start this season, posting a 2.60 ERA and 0.80 WHIP through four starts. His K/9 sits at only 6.8, but expect that to change quickly considering his 8.9 career K/9. He limited batters to a 29.3% hard-hit rate last year and has been even better this season at 20.8%. His first start of the week against the Orioles is a great matchup considering their .215 team batting average is the lowest in baseball. He’ll face a much tougher lineup in the Mariners for his second start, but he’s still someone who could be in line for an excellent week.

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals: at SF, vs. AZ

Gonzalez had a surprisingly stellar season in 2017, finishing with a 2.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 8.4 K/9. A deeper dive indicates he was a bit lucky though since his FIP was 3.93 and opponents had just a .258 BABIP. He saw a dip in velocity for his fastball, but he countered that by throwing his changeup a career-high 18.5% of the time. Both trends have continued this season as well, resulting in him again having success with a 2.49 ERA through four starts. He’ll face one of the worst offenses in baseball in the Giants for his first start and then he’ll get the Diamondbacks at home after pitching to a 2.76 ERA at Nationals Park in 2017.

Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers: vs. MIA, at SF

Maeda is off to a strange start. His ERA sits at 3.77 despite having a 1.06 FIP. He has a crazy high 1.74 WHIP but has accompanied that with an equally stunning 15.1 K/9. For his career, he has a 1.17 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. He’s not going to keep up this strikeout pace, but his opponents .513 BABIP obviously won’t hold up either. This is shaping up to be a dream week against the lowly Marlins and Giants, so look for Maeda to provide tremendous value.

Chad Bettis, Colorado Rockies: vs. SD, at MIA

Bettis has a 1.44 ERA through four starts, but his 4.32 FIP suggests he has not pitched nearly that well. He’s been helped by opponents posting a .217 BABIP, leading to a 1.08 WHIP that is well below his career WHIP of 1.45. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher either with just a 5.4 K/9 this season. All that being said, he gets two favorable matchups this week against the Padres and Marlins. He faced the Padres in his first start of the season as well, allowing two runs and recording four strikeouts in five innings. Both teams are in the bottom-10 in baseball in runs scored, so Bettis is a viable streaming option this week who is still available in 56% of Yahoo! leagues.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 5

C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees: vs. MIN, at LAA

Don’t let Sabathia’s 2.70 ERA this season fool you, he’s not that type of pitcher anymore. His FIP through three starts sits at 6.01 and he has already given up three home runs in just 13.1 innings. He doesn’t pitch deep into games anymore and isn’t a strikeout pitcher with only a 7.3 K/9 last year. Both the Twins and the Angels have right-handed power bats that could prove troublesome for Sabathia, so it might be a good idea to stay away from starting him this week.

Jake Odorizzi, Minnesota Twins: at NYY, vs. CIN

Odorizzi is another starter who has a deceivingly low ERA in the early going at 3.38 despite his 5.36 FIP. He had control issues last year with a 3.8 BB/9 and has carried those problems into 2018 with a 4.6 BB/9 through four starts. Home runs have been a problem for him as well, allowing 1.9 HR/9 last year. That’s not a recipe for success in his first start on the road against the powerful Yankees lineup. Facing the Reds in his second start will be a much easier task, but that first start against the Yankees could really put you in a hole right out of the gate.

Bryan Mitchell, San Diego Padres: at COL, vs. NYM

Talk about two rough matchups for Mitchell. He has to face the Rockies in Coors Field first, then he has to face a Mets offense that has the eighth-highest OBP (.333) in baseball. Mitchell walks way too many batters, recording 7.8 BB/9 through his first four starts. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff either with just a 5.4 K/9 for his career. If you are looking for a low owned player to stream this week, look elsewhere.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 4

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 4

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

The weather continues to wreak havoc on baseball, but the best we can do is plan for the scheduled week ahead. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. He are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 4

Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. SF, vs. SD

Corbin is off to a stellar start in 2018, posting a 2.45 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 14.2 K/9 through three starts. His FIP is even better at 1.97 and it’s not like he’s been getting lucky as opponents have a .306 BABIP so far. His career K/9 is just 8.0 though, so don’t expect him to be able to keep up this insane strikeout rate. The good news this week is he gets two starts at home, so no need to worry about any weather issues at Chase Field. He also gets two excellent matchups, especially his first start against the Giants, who have scored the third-fewest runs (46) in baseball so far.

Luis Severino, New York Yankees: vs. MIA, vs. TOR

The Red Sox touched up Severino for five runs in his last start, but he still recorded six strikeouts in that game and has a 10.0 K/9 through three starts. He emerged as one of the elite pitchers in baseball in 2017, finishing with a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. He allowed just 2.4 BB/9 and held opponents to a 29.4% hard-hit rate. As long as the weather holds up, Monday brings a start against the lowly Marlins, who are batting just .227 with eight home runs as a team. His second start comes against a Blue Jays lineup with much more power, but he held them to one hit while recording seven strikeouts on Opening Day.

Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros: at SEA, at CWS

Don’t read too much into McCullers’ 7.71 ERA, a lot of that was because he allowed eight runs in 3.2 innings in his last start against the Twins. Opponents also have an insanely high .485 BABIP against him. His FIP sits at 3.77 and he’s been an excellent source for strikeouts with a 14.8 K/9. He posted a K/9 of at least 10 in both of the last two seasons. He also does a great job keeping hitters in the park with a career 0.7 HR/9. If you were thinking about benching him based on his last blowup, don’t be. He should rebound in a big way with this two-start week.

Francisco Liriano, Detroit Tigers: vs. BAL, vs. KC

Liriano made the rebuilding Tigers rotation out of spring training and has a sparkling 2.13 ERA and 0.95 WHIP through two starts. With a 4.16 FIP and paltry 5.0 K/9 though, he screams regression candidate. While it’s coming at some point, you might be able to squeeze two more good starts out of him this week. First, he’ll face the Orioles, who have the most strikeouts (177) and second-lowest team batting average (.216) in baseball. Then he’ll take on a Royals lineup that has scored the fewest runs (39) in baseball. Most of their better hitters are left-handed as well, which is good news for Liriano since he held lefties to a .286 wOBA in 2017. Still available in 89% of Yahoo! leagues, Liriano is a viable streaming option for Week 4.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 4

David Price, Boston Red Sox: at LAA, at OAK

Price left his last start against the Yankees after feeling “a sensation” in his left hand. He said he hasn’t experienced any issues since, but it is a bit concerning considering he dealt with an elbow issue last year. When healthy, Price is really tough on lefties, holding them to a .228 wOBA in 2017. Righties game him more trouble though, posting a .301 wOBA. The Angels and Athletics both have a lot of good right-handed hitters who perform well against lefties, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Price struggles this week.

Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs: vs. STL, at COL

Chatwood is not off to a good start with his new team, posting a 4.91 ERA and 1.82 WHIP through two starts. Opponents do have a .364 BABIP though while posting just a 17.6% hard-hit rate, so expect his numbers to improve as the season moves on. I was very high on him heading into the season and still am, but not in Week 4. The Cardinals are in the top-10 in the league in runs scored and his second start of the week brings his old nemesis Coors Field. He was awful pitching there as a member of the Rockies last year, recording a 6.01 ERA in 70.1 innings. Put him on your bench this week.

Zack Wheeler, New York Mets: vs. WAS, at ATL

The Mets are on cloud nine right now after a 12-2 start. Their pitching has been a big reason for their success with a league-best 2.58 team ERA. Wheeler’s first start of the season couldn’t have gone much better, allowing one run on two hits to go along with seven strikeouts in seven innings. However, it came against the Marlins. He’ll face two much tougher lineups this week, especially a Braves team that has scored the fourth-most runs (82) and is hitting for the fourth-highest average (.270) in baseball. Wheeler might provide value at times this season, but buyer beware for Week 4.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 3

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 3

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

Poor weather has made the start of the season a bit unpredictable in terms of the schedule, but it’s only going to get better as we get further away from the beginning of April. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. He are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 3

Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians: vs. DET, vs. TOR

Anytime an ace like Kluber gets two starts in a week, you are likely off to a good start if you have him in your league. Kluber is still looking for his first win of the season, but he has a sparkling 2.40 ERA and 0.80 WHIP after his first two starts. Both of his starts this week are at home, where he had a 1.81 ERA and 12.3 K/9 last season. With one of his starts being against the rebuilding Tigers. Kluber is on the cusp of providing excellent production for fantasy owners.

Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels: at TEX, at KC

Richards has had trouble staying healthy, throwing a total of 61.1 innings in the last two seasons. He was great when he was able to take the mound, posting a FIP of 3.32 or lower in both seasons. He’s not off to the best of starts this year with a 5.06 ERA and 6.50 FIP through two starts. However, he has allowed just an 18.5% hard-hit rate. He showed his strikeout upside in his last start Tuesday against the Indians, recording nine of them in 5.2 innings. The Royals are last in the majors with only 16 runs scored so far this season, so Richards could be in line for a valuable week.

Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners: at KC, vs. OAK

Gonzales did not pitch at all in 2016 and was limited to 40 innings in 2017 due to Tommy John surgery. Once thought of to be the future of the Cardinals starting rotation, he was traded to the Mariners last season. The Mariners minor league system is lacking talent, making the 26-year-old Gonzales and important part of their future. He allowed three earned runs over six innings in his first start of the season against the Giants, but only recorded two strikeouts. His second start of Week 3 is no cake walk against an Athletics lineup that has plenty of power, but his first start against the anemic Royals offense at least brings him into the conversation as someone to start this week. He is still available in 88% of Yahoo! leagues as well.

Ben Lively, Philadelphia Phillies: vs. CIN, at TB

Lively doesn’t jump off the page as someone you’d want to start. He did not have a great season last year, posting a 4.97 FIP and just 5.3 K/9 in 88.2 innings. He does have good control though, posting a 2.4 BB/9 last year and a 2.6 BB/9 during his time in the minors. Home runs weren’t a problem for him in the minors either, recording a 0.6 HR/9 in 603.1 career innings. Week 3 brings two struggling lineups in the Reds and Rays, who are both in the bottom-four in baseball for runs scored in the earlier going. If you are streaming starters, Lively is still available in 95% of Yahoo! leagues.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 3

Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves: at WAS, at Cubs

Teheran is off to a disastrous start, allowing nine earned runs in eight innings over his first two starts. After allowing a career-high 31 home runs last year, he already gave up four in those first two outings. He was a much better pitcher on the road last year, but he’ll face two tough lineups in the Nationals and Cubs. He just faced the Nationals on Tuesday, giving up five earned runs in only 2.1 innings. Keep him out of your lineup for Week 3.

Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres: at COL, vs. SF

The “ace” of the Padres would be a back of the rotation starter on most teams. Not only did he have a 4.79 ERA last year, but he struggled to keep runners off base, resulting in a 1.52 WHIP. He allowed a 35% hard-hit rate and only had a 6.9 K/9, so he really wasn’t fooling anyone. With a rough road game in Coors Field among his two starts for Week 3, don’t consider him as a streaming option for your team.

Francisco Liriano, Detroit Tigers: at CLE, vs. NYY

Liriano made his debut in the majors back in 2005, so it’s hard to believe that he’s only 34 years old. Although he’s not much more than a journeyman pitcher at this point in his career, he made the starting rotation out of spring training for the rebuilding Tigers. He only allowed one earned run in 6.2 innings in his first start of 2018, but it came against the Royals. This week brings much tougher opponents, especially a Yankees lineup that provides a lot of problems for left-handed pitchers. Don’t overreact to one good start, stay away from Liriano.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 2

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 2

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

Although this is the second week for most fantasy baseball leagues, it’s the first full week of games for the 2018 season. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. He are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 2

Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians: at LAA, vs. KC

The big names in the Indians starting rotation are Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar, but Clevinger proved to be an important part of their rotation in 2017. He finished the year 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA and 10.1 K/9. Walks were an issue at 4.4 per nine innings, but he held opponents to just a .211 batting average. Getting two starts out of a pitcher with his strikeout upside can give you a significant edge in many leagues. His second start of the week against the Royals is especially favorable based on the losses they suffered to their lineup this winter.

Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs: at CIN, at MIL

I was very high on Chatwood heading into this season and he gives those who drafted him a two-start week early in the season. Chatwood did not pitch well in Coors Field as a member of the Rockies last year, posting a 6.01 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 70.1 innings. He was much better on the road, finishing with a 3.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 77.1 innings. He’ll still have a potent lineup behind him in Chicago, which could have him in line for the best season of his career.

Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates: vs. MIN, vs. CIN

Taillon’s numbers from 2017 aren’t impressive as he finished with a 4.44 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. However, his FIP was 3.48, so he could be in line for improved numbers this season. Opponents also had a .359 BABIP against him last year, which should be in line for some regression towards the norm this season. Taillon only allowed 0.7 HR/9, which is important because he didn’t have overpowering stuff with an 8.4 K/9. Playing the Twins at home will help Taillon as he gets to avoid the DH.

Charlie Morton, Houston Astros: vs. BAL, vs. SD

Morton had one of the best seasons of his career in 2017 finishing with a career-high 14 wins to go along with a 3.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 10 K/9. He had a 3.46 FIP, opponents posted a .297 BABIP against him, and he only allowed 0.9 HR/9, so his numbers stand up past just the initial inspection. The Orioles really struggled offensively in their first series of the season, scoring a combined five runs in three games against the Twins. The Padres brought in Eric Hosmer during the winter, but their lineup still isn’t very imposing. Expect significant production for Morton in Week 2.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 2

Sean Newcomb and Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves: vs. WAS, at COL:

The Braves have two starters who will each get two starts this week, but they have very unfavorable matchups. First, they face the Nationals at home, who still have a very deep lineup despite the absence of Daniel Murphy (knee). Teheran really struggled at home last season, posting a 5.68 ERA compared to a 3.14 ERA on the road. After Newcomb and Teheran get through that, they then have to travel to hitter-friendly Coors Field. Both pitchers will provide value over the course of the long season, but this might be the week to keep them anchored to your bench.

Chris Tillman and Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles: at HOU, at NYY

Tillman was horrid for the Orioles last season, posting a 7.84 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. He’s bound to improve on those numbers this year, but his career 4.43 ERA and 4.66 FIP leave a lot to be desired. Unless you are in a very deep AL-only league, you shouldn’t be starting him regardless of opponent or number of starts he has in a given week. Bundy, on the other hand, is considered the future of the Orioles rotation at just 25 years old. He had a respectable 2017 campaign, finishing with a 4.24 ERA and 8.1 K/9. He did a great job keeping runner off base with a 1.20 WHIP, but his 1.4 HR/9 is an area of concern. He’ll face two of the more powerful lineups in all of baseball in Week 2, so it might be best to avoid him for your lineup.

Bryan Mitchell and Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres: vs. COL, at HOU

The Padres made some improvements to their lineup, but their starting rotation still has a long ways to go before they can become a playoff-caliber team. Ross rejoins the Padres after injuries limited him to just 54.1 innings in the last two seasons combined. His brief stint with the Rangers did not go well last season, finishing with a 7.71 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. Mitchell was brought over in a trade with the Yankees after bouncing between their bullpen and starting rotation. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, posting just a 5.9 K/9 during his career in the majors. He could be someone to consider streaming against favorable opponents, but that’s certainly not the case this week facing the Rockies and Astros. Don’t trust either Padres starter to help you win your league this week.