2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers
With the offensive outburst that was experienced throughout the league in 2017, quality starting pitchers seem harder to come by this year in fantasy baseball. However, that doesn’t mean you still can’t assemble a quality staff for your squad. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some starting pitchers who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.
The Top Five
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kershaw is the elite of the elite when it comes to starting pitchers. Outside of his rookie season in 2008, Kershaw has never finished the season with an ERA above 2.91. His career ERA of 2.36 is off the charts and is in no ways a fluke considering his career FIP is 2.60. He does an excellent job keeping men off base, posting a WHIP of 0.95 or lower in each of the last five seasons. That’s a big reason why he posted a 2.31 ERA last year despite posting a career-high 1.2 HR/9. To top off his stellar numbers, he has a K/9 of at least 10.4 in four straight seasons. Injuries have limited him to 175 innings or fewer in back-to-back seasons, but his numbers are so outstanding when he is on the mound that he is the clear choice for the top starting pitcher in fantasy baseball.
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
Scherzer was a very good starting pitcher as a member of the Detroit Tigers, but he’s taken his game to the next level since joining the Nationals. In three seasons in Washington, Scherzer has never had an ERA above 2.96 or a WHIP above 0.97. His batting average against has decreased each year with the Nationals with opponents hitting a mere .178 against him in 2017. He’s also a strikeout machine, posting a K/9 of at least 10.1 in each of the last six seasons, topping out at a career-high 12.0 last year. Throw in the fact that he has logged at least 214.1 innings in five straight seasons and not only is he the second-best starting pitcher in fantasy baseball, but he is well worth a first-round pick.
Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
Sale had arguably the best season of his career in 2017, finishing 17-8 with a 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and an insane 308 strikeouts in 214.1 innings. He is one of the most dominating strikeout pitchers in the game, posting a K/9 of at least 10.8 in three of the last four seasons. If not for a few rough starts in August and September and a stellar finish by Corey Kluber, Sale could have won his first Cy Young Award last year. Like Scherzer, Sale has been very reliable, throwing at least 208.2 innings in four of the last five seasons. The only reason he comes in third on this list behind Scherzer is that he had an ERA of 3.05 or higher in four of five seasons entering 2017. It’s a matter of splitting hairs though, so it could also cost you a first-round pick to get Sale on your team this year depending on the size of your league.
Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
Kluber closed out 2017 strong, going 11-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in the second half of the season. Overall, he set or tied career highs last year in wins (18), ERA (2.25), WHIP (0.87) and K/9 (11.7) on his way to winning the American League Cy Young Award. His FIP was also 2.50, marking the third time in the last four seasons that he recorded a FIP of 2.97 or lower. With a career K/9 of 9.9, Kluber was able to make big strides in that category last year by posting a swinging strike percentage of 24.2%, significantly higher than his career mark of 20.3%. He may be in for a slight regression in the strikeout department this year, but he is still going to finish with great numbers overall. If you want him on your team, you’ll likely have to spend at least a second-round pick to get him.
Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
Strasburg provided fantasy owners with a ton of value last year despite only logging 175.1 innings, finishing 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 204 strikeouts. His FIP was just 2.72, marking the fourth straight season he had a FIP of 2.94 or lower. Like the other starters on this list, he is a dominant strikeout pitcher, recording a K/9 of at least 10.1 in each of the last four seasons. There is no doubt that when Strasburg is healthy, he is one of the top pitchers in the league. However, health has been a concern with Strasburg logging at least 200 innings only once in his career. He had actually thrown less than 150 innings in back-to-back seasons entering 2017. That’s the reason he comes in fifth on this list, but he is still worthy of being a fantasy staff ace.
Overvalued Players
Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros
Cole’s best season was in 2015 as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates when he finished 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 208 innings. However, his numbers have declined in the two years since, finishing last year 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA and 196 strikeouts in 203 innings. His main problem in 2017 was a massive increase in home runs allowed. He only allowed 29 home runs from 2014 through 2016 but gave up 31 in 2017 alone. When you add in the fact that he also issued a career-high 55 walks, you get the big jump in ERA. There is a reason for optimism this year though as his ground ball to flyball ratio was 0.85 last year, which is almost right on pace with his career mark. His home run to flyball percentage jumped all the way up to 11.3%, almost double his previous career high. With some regression to the norm this season, Cole could get his ERA back down under 4.00. The problem is his ADP in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) is 81.79, ahead of players including Masahiro Tanaka (99.84) and Jose Berrios (106.66). Cole appears to be trending upward, but his ADP is too high right now to provide enough value for your squad.
Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays
Stroman is a fine starting pitcher, winning 13 games and posting a 3.09 ERA for the Blue Jays last season. He doesn’t provide much in the way of strikeouts though with a career K/9 of 7.3. Considering he has posted a 1.29 WHIP or higher in back-to-back seasons, that can be a bit of a scary proposition. If you are going to select a starting pitcher who doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters, he needs to help you in both ERA and WHIP, not just ERA. Stroman’s current ADP is 134.78, which is too high considering his limitations.
Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
Gonzalez had a surprisingly good season in 2017, finishing 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. It marked the first time he had an ERA under three and a WHIP under 1.20 since 2012. His 8.4 K/9 was on par with his career numbers, but he was somewhat lucky with opposing hitter having a .261 BABIP against him. For his career, that mark is .296. He also had a FIP of 3.93 last year, so some regression in 2018 seems likely. With a current ADP of 153.70, it might be wise to avoid him during your draft.
Undervalued Players
Lance McCullers, Houston Astros
After recording an ERA of 3.22 in both of his first two seasons in the majors, McCullers finished with an ERA of 4.25 in 2017. However, his WHIP (1.30), HR/9 (0.6) and FIP (3.10) indicate he was a bit unlucky last year in terms of his ERA. He posted an excellent 10.0 K/9, which was actually down from 11.8 in 2016. Considering his ERA should improve this season, he records a lot of strikeouts and he should get a lot of opportunities for wins on a great team, McCullers ADP of 145.15 is a bargain. He’ll have a better K/9 than Cole and could finish with a similar ERA and WHIP, so I’d much rather take him several rounds later.
Jacob Faria, Tampa Bay Rays
Faria faired well in his first taste of the big leagues last year, posting a 3.43 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9. In his 24 career starts at Triple-A, Faria posted similar numbers with a 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, but his K/9 was significantly higher at 10.5. He had a 10.7 K/9 in 27 career starts at Double-A as well, so he could see an uptick in that department this season. Faria is just 24 years old heading into 2018 and is already an important part of the Rays rotation. His current ADP is just 233.29, which is far too low considering his upside. Don’t be surprised if his numbers are better than Stroman’s at the end of the season.
Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs
Chatwood did not have a good season for the Colorado Rockies last year, finishing 8-15 with a 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.3 K/9. He was destroyed when he pitched in Coors Field, posting a 6.01 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 70.1 innings. He was a much better pitcher on the road though with a 3.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 77.1 innings. The move to the Cubs should do wonders for his value since his career ERA at Coors was an unsightly 5.17. With an ADP 269.64, he’s someone to consider targeting late in your drafts to add depth to your rotation, just don’t count on him for a lot of strikeouts.
