NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Lineup Picks for 10/21/17

Point Guard

Yogi Ferrell and J.J. Barea
FD $4,100 – $3,900 DK $4,200 – $4,200

Dennis Smith Jr. missed the game last night and has already been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Rockets. J.J. Barea and Yogi Ferrell will benefit most, deserving plenty of attention in both cash games and tournaments. Chris Paul has already been ruled out on the other side, so the match-up here won’t be an issue. J.J. Barea got the start last night, but both him and Ferrell got 30 minutes. You can expect at least that many tonight in a fast-paced matchup with Houston. With CP3 gone, Eric Gordon shifted over to covering the PG and split time there with James Harden. Both Harden and Gordon are lackluster defenders would much rather run the floor than grind it out. I really don’t prefer either over the other, but if you forced me, I’ll go with Ferrell as he was controlling the ball when the game mattered down the stretch. He’s also just a tad bit cheaper on both sites, so there’s that.

Ricky Rubio
FD $7,600 DK $7,000

I don’t love PG tonight, so I’m fine punting with all of the value available. I think Westbrook may be popular, and he’s great in cash games, but the match-up with the Jazz is pace-down and he will need to be almost perfect to hit value. Looking a bit cheaper, Ricky Rubio stands out. He’s played over 30 minutes in each of the first 2 games and has held on to a 1.56 FP/minute. It’s obviously an insanely small sample size, but it’s nice to see a guy like him starting off hit. Thibs will keep him on the court a lot when playing like this and the match-up is perfect tonight. Russell Westbrook has the athleticism to be a great defender, but he doesn’t have the lungs. He has enough to do on the other side and it’s why the Thunder ranked 22nd against PG’s in 2016. Rubio isn’t going to put up a bunch of real-life points, but he’ll stuff the sheet in a fast-paced game where he’ll be needed a ton on both sides.

Shooting Guard

James Harden
FD $11,000 DK $10,600

I’m writing this on Thursday night, so forgive me if my assumptions are off a bit. I assume Russell Westbrook is going to be a lot more popular than James Harden and I like Harden more. For one, Chris Paul is out. He’s going to eat into Harden’s numbers this year, as he holds the ball a ton. Two, Westbrook has more opportunity cost. There are some nice options at PG, compared to the mess that is value SG’s. Harden was the primary ballhandler last game and that shouldn’t change here after playing well. The match-up with the Mavs is great, especially with Seth Curry and Dennis Smith being ruled out. That leaves Barea, Ferrell, and Wes Matthews at the 1 and 2. Matthews will cover him most of the time, but the other guys will eventually have to take a shot. It won’t end well for any of them. Harden is going to dominate this defense and their non-existent interior. I’m not saying it’s the safest option, but I’ll be going Harden over Westbrook tonight.

Buddy Hield
FD $5,000 DK $5,400

Shooting Guard is currently my least favorite position, so I’m pretty happy we have James Harden to lean on at the top. With that being said, there are still some guys you can lean on for 25+ FP. Buddy Hield is the easy choice for me. He is going to be a big part of the Kings offense this year and he’s already shown it, going for 32 over the first 2 games. He’s shot the 3rd most on the team and will continue to get around 30 minutes. He’ll see a pairing of Will Barton and Gary Harris on defense, who are both pretty average. The game is sitting at a 216 over/under, so getting some exposure is probably a good idea. Hield lets you do that at a friendly price, while maintaining the upside to give you a huge boost. Hield went over 40 FP 8 times in 2016 and he’s still 4 years from his prime, so it’s possible. It really just depends if he’s hot or not. You’ll know early.

Small Forward

Evan Fournier
FD $5,800 DK $5,600

Elfrid Payton hurt his hamstring last night and he left the game for good. I could be wrong, but I don’t see him coming back tonight. If he does, you can lower my love for Even Fournier here. You also have Aaron Gordon questionable, who missed last night entirely. Fournier and the Magic will have to travel to Cleveland and face off with the same Cavs that just laid the smacking on a skilled Bucks team last night. The Magic don’t have much of a chance at winning here, but they will have to score. Fournier is going to see a lot of ball-handling opportunities and I expect the Magic to run a lot of Fournier/Vucevic PnR. Vuc played a lot last night, however, so I think Fournier steps up and takes on the scoring responsibility. We also shouldn’t have to worry about LeBron covering him (unless he gets hot_, as he won’t be playing the 3 at all with Elfrid out. Small forward isn’t pretty today and Fournier gives you a 30 floor and 60 ceiling at 5.5K.

Josh Richardson
FD $4,900 DK $4,600

This is one of my favorite plays of the night. Josh Richardson played 34 minutes last game and stunk. I love to see it. With just 1 game on the board, people will look at that and draw conclusions. Josh Richardson is a damn good basketball player and one that can fill it up for fantasy. If he continues seeing 30+ minutes at this price, you play him. Every game. The match-up with the Pacers is exquisite, considering they played at the 3rd fastest pace in 2016 and lead thus far in ’17. Richardson is a guy who thrives in the open court, but is perfectly fine in the halfcourt set as well. The Pacers, like the Heat, don’t have a real SF, so Lance Stephenson should be on him a lot. With Hassan Whiteside ruled out, the Heat are going to need a few guys to step up. I expect Josh Richardson to be one of them and for him to be about 5% owned. If he had a good game last time out, he would be close to 40%. Sample size. use it to your advantage.

Power Forward

Blake Griffin
FD $9,800 DK $9,800

I highlighted why I like Griffin so much this season in his first game and everything turned out perfectly. Like I was hoping, Doc Rivers has handed Blake Griffin the offense. It is run around him and what he wants to do. Against Phoenix, that should be a very, very glorious thing to watch. Well, only if you click on his name. I’m of the opinion that Griffin is a top 5 fantasy player this season, so it’s going to be tough for me to not recommend him in any match-up, let alone against the Suns. He’s getting the ball whenever he wants and has a diverse post-game, while also keeping the pace and possesions up. It’s great news if you’re a fan of Blake Griffin. He put up 50 fantasy points in just 33 minutes in game 1 and will look to turn that into 60+ tonight. As long as the game stays close, I don’t see anyone stopping that from happening. I like Harden a bit more, but I’ve been able to fit both on FD without much quarrel. On DK, we all know how tight it can get.

James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk
FD $$5,300 – $4,400 DK $5,200 – $4,800

With Hassan Whiteside out, these are the 2 guys who will fill the hole. Or at least try there best. As for a minutes projection, I’m looking for 32 out of Johnson and 28 from Olynyk, give or take 5. It’s a perfect match-up with the Pacers and they’ll both be able to play down if Myles Turned remains out with a concussion. James Johnson is one of my favorite cash game value plays on the slate and I think he may be the safest of all. Against the Pacers, there is no chance he sees less than 30 minutes. It’s the perfect game for his style of play (aggressive). The Pacers run as much as anyone and it’s shown when a team like the Heat in is a game with a 212 over/under. They like to play slow and aren’t very good at scoring. As for Olynyk, I’ve learned my lesson enough times in cash games. He does have 40 fantasy point upside, however, so it’d be wise to get some GPP exposure. The only worry is if both teams agree to play small and Johnson ends up at the 5. If Myles Turner plays, I may have to try my hand again at Olynyk in cash games. His size will be needed.

Center

Nikola Jokic
FD $9,000 DK $9,300

Jokic faced Rudy Gobert in game 1, so go ahead and throw it out the window. He still played pretty well, but I’m glad people are going to see a 37 when considering to play him or not. He was one of the best fantasy assets in 2016 and the Nuggets have only tailored the offense more in his favor. He is the focal point of the team and is leaned on to not only score but to distribute as well. He’s one of the more gifted passers in basketball and will see double-digit assists plenty of times in the campaign. This game is sitting at a 216 over/under with the Nuggets -11. The Kings will toss Willie Cauley-Stein and Zach Randolph at Jokic, but neither will stick. WCS has a better shot, but he’s not gifted enough on defense and is also a bit skinny. Jokic is a top 2 center in my book and against the Kings, I’ll have exposure every time. I do like him less than Blake Griffin, but BARELY.

Robin Lopez
FD $5,800 DK $5,400

Ya, I know. It seems kind of early to be recommending Robin Lopez. Trust me, I don’t want to play him either. I just have to be objective. With Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis out for an extended period of time, RoLo will be forced to play AT LEAST 30 minutes. He should see close to 40 on certain occasionas. He faces off with the Spurs tonight, who on the surface dont look like a great match-up. However, pace-adjusted, they ranked 21st against centers in 2016. Neither Pau Gasol nor LaMarcus Aldridge is any good at defense, so it makes sense. This is also a different Robin Lopen than you’re used to. Nobody is left on this team, so he’s almost the leader. He’s going to shoot the ball close to 15 times a game and should be close to a lock for a double-double on most nights. Good luck out there tonight! Here’s to avoiding the traps!