The running back landscape for Week 6 in DFS is going to be very different. If you’re playing in the main Sunday afternoon slate, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack and James White are just a few of the names who won’t be at your disposal either because their team is on a bye or they are playing in a prime time game.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 – Running Backs
While only two teams will be on a bye in Week 5, the main Sunday afternoon slate in DFS doesn’t have the most appealing running back options. Still, there are some key matchups to highlight that are worth exploiting.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 – Running Backs
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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One of the themes of Week 2 was running backs racking up catches for their respective squads. Three of the top four leaders in receptions for Week 2 were runnings backs and all three of them finished with at least 80 receiving yards. There are plenty of great matchups for running backs again in Week 3, so let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain the edge in DFS. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Alvin Kamara vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $9,500
Kamara had another fairly quiet performance on the ground in Week 2, rushing 13 times for 46 yards against the Browns. However, he was heavily involved in the passing game, catching all six of his targets for 53 yards. Through the first two games, Kamara already has 15 receptions on 18 targets. He was a monster in the passing game last year, as well, hauling in 81 or 100 targets for 826 yards.
Week 3 brings a great matchup against a Falcons defense that suffered a significant loss when linebacker Deion Jones was placed on IR. Christian McCaffrey took advantage of his absence last week, catching 14 of 15 targets for 102 yards. Kamara may not get a ton of carries again, but his tremendous upside as a receiver makes him one of the best running back options available in DFS.
Saquon Barkley vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,600
The Giants looked awful offensively Sunday night against the Cowboys. Their offensive line once again had trouble protecting Eli Manning, who has clearly lost a step at this stage of his career. Manning looked to have his head on a swivel in the pocket, often checking down to Barkley to avoid the oncoming pass rush. The end result was Barkley catching 14 of 16 passes thrown his way. He didn’t have a lot of room to run, though, accumulating only 80 receiving yards. He also couldn’t get much going on the ground, carrying 11 times for 28 yards.
The Giants have talented playmakers on offense, but their offensive line and the poor play of Manning might limit some of them from reaching their full potential this year. The one positive for Barkley is that he should receive plenty of targets from Manning as he tries to quickly get the ball out of his hands. Barkley has shown an ability to force missed tackles and he can break off a big play at any moment, which gives him a high floor most weeks.
Jordan Howard vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $6,500
Howard didn’t exactly shine on Monday Night Football against the Seahawks, rushing 14 times for 35 yards. He’s failed to score a touchdown yet this year, but his involvement in the passing game has been promising. He received 32 targets in 2017, but he’s already had nine passes thrown his way across two games, hauling in eight of them for 58 yards. The Bears have another talented pass-catcher out of the backfield in Tarik Cohen, but he’s received only five targets so far.
Week 3 brings a great matchup that could potentially lead to a breakout performance from Howard. The Cardinals offense has looked terrible this year, often putting them in a big hole early. This has resulted in their opponents running the ball a lot late in games. The Cardinals haven’t provided much resistance, allowing 256 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Chris Thompson vs. Green Bay Packers
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $6,300
Thompson may not get a lot of press, but he’s one of the best pass-catching running backs in football. He proved it again in Week 2 against the Colts, catching 13 of 14 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown. He’s quickly developed a strong relationship with Alex Smith, resulting in him receiving 21 targets through the first two weeks. While Adrian Peterson was brought in to help offset the loss of Derrius Guice, Thompson’s significant role with the team remains unquestioned.
Peterson took a step backward from his 96-rushing-yard performance in Week 1, but part of that was because the Redskins were playing catchup against the Colts. Peterson ended up with 15 fewer carriers than he had in the first week. Going up against the high-powered Packers offense could force the Redskins to throw more passes in this game, as well, making Thompson a great option to target for your entry.
Giovani Bernard vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Bank of America Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $5,900
Joe Mixon couldn’t make it through Thursday Night Football unscathed and underwent a procedure to remove a small particle from his knee over the weekend. The surgery isn’t expected to sideline Bernard for too long, but he won’t be able to suit up Sunday against the Panthers.
Bernard started two games last season that Mixon also missed due to injury. One of them was a tough matchup against the Vikings where he finished with only 43 total yards, but he did score a touchdown and receive 14 carries to go along with five targets. He accumulated 130 total yards in his other start against the Bears. The Panthers have allowed 4.9 yards per carry across their first two games this season, leaving Bernard with a high ceiling considering his expected role and price in DFS.
Matt Breida vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $5,400
The 49ers were dealt a crushing blow when they lost Jerick McKinnon to a torn ACL before the season even started. In his absence, Breida and Alfred Morris became the lead duo in their backfield. After an unfavorable matchup versus the Vikings in Week 1, Breida rebounded in a big way Sunday against the Lions. He only carried the ball 11 times, but he ran for 138 yards and a score.
Another encouraging sign for Breida in Week 2 is that he received four targets. This could be a high-scoring game against the Chiefs explosive offense, which may force the 49ers to throw more than usual. The Chiefs have given up 261 receiving yards on 21 receptions to running backs so far this year. If he continues to play like he did last week, he could break away from Morris, who has averaged 3.3 yards per carry.
Corey Clement vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $4,300
The Eagles could be very thin at running back this week. Darren Sproles missed Week 2 with a hamstring injury and his status for this game against the Colts is still in doubt. Jay Ajayi also briefly left Sunday’s game with a back injury, but there have been reports that he might not be able to play this week. The Eagles already promoted Josh Adams from their practice squad, which isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for the prospects of Ajayi and Sproles taking the field.
Clement played well in Week 2 with Ajayi limited, finishing with 85 total yards and a touchdown. If Ajayi ultimately does not play in this contest, Clement should see a significant boost in value. If Sproles is also ruled out, the potential value you could receive from Clement at this might be too hard to pass up.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
LeSean McCoy vs. Minnesota Vikings
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,100
McCoy is really the only significant weapon the Bills have on offense. They have a hard enough time scoring points, to begin with, but now McCoy is dealing with a rib injury heading into Week 3. He’s listed as questionable right now, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s forced to miss at least this contest. Even if he does play, he’ll be at less than 100% against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Stay far, far away from McCoy when crafting your lineup.
Derrick Henry vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – TIAA Bank Field
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,400
Henry had the potential to become the lead running back for the Titans after the departure of DeMarco Murray, but the addition of Dion Lewis put a damper on his value. They have basically split the carries through two games with Henry getting 28 rushing attempts compared to 30 for Lewis. Lewis is clearly their preferred option as a pass-catcher, though, as he has nine targets compared to just one for Henry. There’s just not enough upside here with Henry to warrant taking a chance on him against the Jaguars stingy defense.
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17
Welcome to the craziness that is Week 17 in the NFL. There are teams that are locked into their playoff spots or have nothing to play for at all and could very well sit their starters. Even if some players don’t sit all together, they could be limited to a couple quarters at most. Be sure to check out all the information available on Twitter or by a simple Google search before locking in your lineups as this article is written mid-week. Let’s jump in and take a look at each Tier for the seven-game early slate on Sunday.
Tier 1
Ezekiel Elliott returned last week and rushed for 94 yards and picked up an additional 21 yards through the air but unfortunately, the Cowboys lost and were eliminated from the playoffs. This muddies the waters for Week 17 as it is unclear how much usage he will get and then add the tough matchup vs. the Eagles defense that ranks 4th in DVOA vs. the rush and 3rd in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs.
DeAndre Hopkins received his second-lowest target share of the season(6) but still managed to make a ridiculous catch in the endzone to pick up 16.5 fantasy points. This week he gets an elite matchup vs. the Colts who have allowed the third-most passing yards per game(254.8) this season and rank 23rd in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. I am also less concerned with his usage as both teams have been out of the playoffs for some time now and it hasn’t stopped him at all.
The Patriots are locked into the playoffs and have wrapped up the division but still have one game left to lock down home-field advantage through the playoffs with a win so I am expecting another big game from Gronk. He has scored 15 or more DK points in four straight games with three of those performances exceeding 25 points and now faces a horrendous Jets defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass and 24th in DK points per game allowed to tight ends. He could be the highest owned player in this tier but also may have the biggest upside.
The Vikings have also locked up their division but have a big game on Sunday as the Rams, Saints, and Panthers are all breathing down their neck for that #2 seed and a first-round bye. Adam Thielen has been quiet over the last two weeks with just five catches for 54 yards but is having a big season overall with 1,215 yards and could be low owned this week considering he is facing a Bears team that has been pretty good against wideouts ranking 14th in DK points per game. Don’t overlook he and Case Keenum’s ability to produce big-time fantasy points as Thielen moves all over the field and can exploit matchups.
Top Targets in this Tier – Rob Gronkowski, Adam Thielen
Tier 2
Marvin Jones has not scored a touchdown or broke 100 yards since Thanksgiving vs. the Vikings and has seen some decline down the stretch as he has only been targeted 14 times over the last three games and tallied double-digit fantasy points just once. Despite neither team in this game having anything to play for, Jones does get a nice matchup vs. the Packers defense that has allowed the 11th most passing yards per game(232.3) and ranks 25th in DK points per game to wideouts.
It’s a similar situation for T.Y. Hilton as the Colts and Texans have been eliminated and on to next season. Hilton did breakout in a tough matchup last week vs. the Ravens catching six of his 12 targets for his first 100-yard game since week 9 against none other than these Houston Texans who rank 28th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. Look for Hilton to finish the year off strong.
Speaking of the Texans, it was JuJu Smith Schuster getting to them late on Christmas day as he caught six of his seven targets for 75 yards and a touchdown. With Antonio Brown still sidelined with an injury both Martavis Bryant and Smith-Schuster should continue to see high usage in the Steelers defense. The other thing he has going is that the Steelers can still grab a first-round bye with a win and a New England loss. This week they get a winless Browns team that sits mid-pack in passing yards per game allowed (230.7) but rank 29th overall when looking at DVOA vs. the pass. Fire up JuJu with confidence this week.
Another safe play in this tier is Dion Lewis at the running back position. With James White and Rex Burkhead both out last week, Lewis saw the bulk of the action out of the backfield and crushed for fantasy rushing for 129 yards and a touchdown 35.3 fantasy points. Burkhead for sure won’t be back this week and White is still questionable early in the week meaning Lewis could once again be the feature back for the Pats who are huge 15.5 point favorites. The Jets have been pretty good against the run ranking 12th in DVOA and 15th in DK points per game allowed to running backs but the game script in fully in Lewis’s favor here and he should once again see 20+ carries which presents a high floor and ceiling.
Top Targets in this Tier – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Dion Lewis
Tier 3
Tom Brady has been a big disappointment for fantasy lately and a lot of it can be attributed to the run game that has averaged 121.5 yards per game over their last four games. In those four games, Brady has not topped 17 fantasy points once and may not again this week as the Patriots are currently huge 15.5 point home favorites vs. the Jets and will likely lean on Dion Lewis once again.
Kirk Cousins is coming off his best game in over a month throwing for 299 yards and three touchdowns against the Broncos and has topped 15 fantasy points in three of his last four weeks. He has also thrown for multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games. The running game in Washington has been hit hard with injuries which should once again force Cousins to throw it up 30+ times and he gets an elite matchup to do it against the Giants who rank 31st overall in DK points per game to quarterbacks.
Even without Antonio Brown, Big Ben threw two touchdowns on Christmas day making it seven straight games with multiple touchdown passes. Like I mentioned earlier, the Steelers are still playing for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs but without Brown again this week and an elite running back in the backfield(Le’Veon Bell), we shouldn’t expect high volume from the passing game which will limit Big Ben’s upside.
Matthew Stafford hasn’t flashed much upside since having his throwing hand stepped on earlier in December against the Ravens. He has hit double-digit fantasy points in every single game this season but has only hit the 20-point threshold once in his last five games. There has been no word nor is it expected that the Lions will rest their starters against the Packers and that is good news as the matchup is favorable as the Packers rank 25thin DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Back in Week 9, Stafford completed 26 of 33 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Packers.
The Eagles snuck out a win on Christmas vs. a weak Raiders defense but it was almost all credited to the defense as Foles came back to Earth after a four-touchdown performance the week before. He completed just 50% of his passes for 163 yards and a touchdown. With the win, the Eagles locked up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs so it is unclear how much run they will give Foles in a division game vs. the Cowboys. If word comes out that they will let him play the entire game to prepare for the playoffs, fire him up as the Cowboys rank 21st in DK points per game allowed to QB’s and Foles has a ton of weapons to help him hit value(Ertz, Jeffery, Agholor, Ajayi).
Top Targets in this Tier – Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford
Tier 4
The fourth tier is a very interesting one considering four of the five quarterbacks have nothing to play for as their teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Only the Vikings and Case Keenum have something to play for as they look to lock up the #2 seed and a first-round bye. As of Wednesday, the four other quarterbacks are slated to start for their respective teams but Eli Manning seems to have the biggest question mark as to how much playing time he will see.
Dak Prescott gets a tough matchup on paper vs. the Eagles who rank 6th in DVOA vs. the pass and 12th in DK points per game allowed to the position. With the Eagles having already locked up the #1 seed there is a chance they could rest some starters in the second half which would open up Prescott’s upside if he was to play the entire game.
Brett Hundley will get the start and likely play the entire game but the knock on him this week is that two of his top receiving options are dealing with injuries. Devante Adams remains in the league’s concussion protocol while Jordy Nelson was injured in Saturday night’s game and has yet to practice this week. The matchup is also not high on the list as the Lions rank 16th in DVOA vs. the pass and 14th in DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Proceed with caution.
Jacoby Brissett easily gets the best matchup in the tier facing a Texans defense that ranks 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and dead last in DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. The issue with him is that the upside really hasn’t been there as he has just three touchdowns over his last four games while averaging 11.9 DK points per game. If you are planning on using Brissett in this tier, be sure to pair him with his top target, T.Y. Hilton, in Tier 2.
Top Target in this Tier – Case Keenum, Jacoby Brissett
Tier 5
Tier 5, which consists of five wide receivers, start with Stefon Diggs who has not only scored in back to back games but has also been much better at home this season. He is averaging just over 85 yards per game(44 on the road) and has scored five touchdowns(2 on the road) while averaging 20.9 DK points per game(9.9 on the road). The matchup is not the greatest against the Bears who rank 14th in DVOA vs. the pass but the good news is that Diggs has also seen an uptick in targets over his last four games with 7.3 per game compared to his 5.9 season average.
As a mirror opposite, Brandin Cooks gets a great matchup this week against the Jets who rank 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass and 19th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. The issue here is that he has trended down with his targets lately with an average of 5.5 over the last four games and the game script will most definitely not be in his favor as the Pats are huge 15.5 point favorites.
After scoring in back to back games, Alshon Jeffery recorded his worst game of the season catching zero balls on just two targets against the Raiders. He and Nick Foles have not shown the same chemistry as he and Carson Wentz did for most of the season. The Eagles have also locked up the #1 seed and although he will start the game, it is unclear how many snaps he and the rest of the starters will see against the Cowboys. Best to fade Jeffery here.
Jamison Crowder played with a hamstring injury last week and seen just 45% of the snaps but came through catching all four of his targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. He has been the most targeted player on the Redskins this season(6.8 per game) and with an extra week to get back to full health should be able to exploit an excellent matchup vs. the Giants who rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 21st in DK points per game allowed to wideouts.
Martavis Bryant also gets an upside matchup in Week 17 against a Browns team that ranks 29th in DVOA vs. the pass. He should also see some added target share this week with Antonio Brown still sidelined with an injury while the Steelers are still fighting with the Patriots for the #1 seed in the AFC. This is one tier that I will be splitting a few a players in multi-lineup contests.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jamison Crowder, Stefon Diggs, Martavis Bryant
Tier 6
Zach Ertz has been the most reliable option in this tier averaging 7.2 targets and 15.5 DK points per game but will be hard to trust this week as the Eagles have wrapped up the #1 seed and it’s unclear how much the starters will play this week. The same sentiment holds true for Ertz’ teammate Nelson Agholor who could also see limited snaps. Another big question mark in this tier is the status of Sterling Shepard as he was not present at practice on Thursday and with the Giants having nothing to play for, it is unlikely he sees the field and if he does it will likely be limited snaps.
I talked about the Lions matchup this week with Marvin Jones and the same holds true for Golden Tate who has seen steady targets all season(7.5 per game) and sits with 899 yards and four touchdowns. I do prefer Jones slightly as he gets the better matchup vs. Damarious Randall while Tate, in the slot, will see quite a bit of Morgan Burnett who is rated quite a bit higher than Randall over at PFF. Both are definitely in play if Stafford is going to be playing the entire game.
Like I have mentioned, the Eagles will likely sit most of their starters, at least in the second half which presents an excellent matchup for the Cowboys this week and Vegas agrees as they have Dallas sitting as road favorites. Dak Prescott even mentioned he will be damned to finish the season after last week’s performance so I fully expect the offense to play the entire game and try and end 2017 on a high note. Roll out Dez with confidence.
Josh Gordon has continued to trend down since his return and posted his worst game of the season(4 games) last week in Chicago with just two catches on eight targets for 19 yards. He is getting the targets(9 per game) but gets an even tougher matchup this week facing a Steelers team that ranks 7th in DVOA vs. the pass and DK points per game allowed to wideouts. More bad news as the Steelers also have the #1 seed to play for so you can expect a strong performance against their division rivals.
With Aaron Jones not practicing this week and doubtful to play in Sunday’s finale, it opens up the workload for Jamaal Williams once again making him a nice target this week. He has flashed big upside since taking over as the Packers top back mid-season and posted one 100+ yard game and scored in three straight games from Week 12-14. He will likely see 20+ touches this week in a terrific matchup vs. the Lions who rank 28th in DVOA vs. the rush and 31st in DK points per game allowed to running backs.
Top Targets in this Tier – Golden Tate, Dez Bryant, Jamaal Williams
Tier 7
Jordan Howard has been a boom or bust play all season. He has flashed big upside as he has rushed for 100 or more yards five times and scored multiple touchdowns three times but also scored 10 or fewer DK points seven times. I have a strong feeling that the latter will be the case in Week 17 as he gets a terrible matchup against a Vikings defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game(87.1) and fewest DK points per game to running backs. Probably best to fade him here. Robby Anderson is also on my fade list in this tier as he is not only questionable with an illness but has also done nothing since Josh McCown went down in Week 13. Lamar Miller has been a huge disappointment this season as he has not topped 75 yards once and comes in with three straight weeks without getting to 10 DK points and was out-touched and out-performed by Alfred Blue on Christmas day. Safe to say Miller is also a fade in Week 17.
After starting off the tier with three fades it doesn’t leave many options but there is some value with the Vikings players this week as they have the #2 seed in the NFC to play for and the starters will likely play the entire game unless it gets out of hand. The matchup for the running backs is a tough one as the Bears have allowed the ninth-fewest yards per game(105.5) and rank 9th in DK points per game allowed to the position. Because of this, I lean Jerick McKinnon who has been far and away the receiving back this season with 4.5 targets per game compared to Murray’s 1.1 per game. On the season, McKinnon has 51 receptions for 421 yards and a touchdown. As for Kyle Rudolph, he has been dealing with n ankle injury all December and was once again limited in practice this week. On top of that, he gets a tough matchup as the Bears rank 12th in DK points per game allowed to tight ends. For receiving options, I prefer Diggs and Thielen for the Vikings. SKOL!
I talked about Jacoby Brissett and T.Y. Hilton as a nice stack earlier and another option on the Colts this week is tight end, Jack Doyle. He is tied with Hilton for the team lead in targets(6.9) and gets a terrific matchup vs. the Texans who have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game(246.3) and rank 26th in DK points per game to the tight end position.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jerick McKinnon, Jack Doyle
Tier 8
If Duke Johnson gets in a full practice this week after being limited Wednesday he makes an intriguing option as he has been a nice PPR back all season. He is fourth in receiving among running backs with 68 receptions for 618 yards and three touchdowns. Will Fuller cannot be trusted as he has fallen off a cliff since Deshaun Watson went down before Week 9. Bilal Powell is a nice option here in this tier as he is closing his season out on a high note with touchdowns in three of his last four games and coming off his second 100+ yard game last week vs. the Chargers.
The Colts may not have anything to play for in Week 17 but Frank Gore has a milestone to hit. Via Evan Silva on Twitter:
4 players have rushed for 1,000+ yards in 10 seasons:
Emmitt Smith
Barry Sanders
Walter Payton
Curtis MartinFrank Gore needs 139 yards vs HOU to become the 5th.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) December 26, 2017
I fully expect the Colts to feed him the ball this week. Another option who is fully in play here is Randall Cobb of the Packers. With Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams very doubtful to play it will open up a ton of targets and Cobb could very well be the beneficiary giving him a high floor and ceiling vs. the Lions.
Top Targets in this Tier – Bilal Powell, Frank Gore, Randall Cobb
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16
Tier 1
Only three options in the first tier but the decision will not be an easy one should be running just one lineup this week. Todd Gurley trails Kareem Hunt by just 13 yards rushing this season but has 190 more receiving yards and eight more total touchdowns giving him 25.1 DraftKings points per game this season and right in the middle of the league MVP talks. He is coming off a monster game where he rushed for 152 yards and three touchdowns and also added another touchdown through the air leading the Rams to a huge victory over their division rivals, the Seahawks. Kareem Hunt is also coming off a big game last week with 155 yards rushing and a touchdown and also added nine receptions for 51 yards and a touchdown through the air. It seems the Chiefs just needed to get Andy Reid away from making play calls for Hunt to get back on track as that is now back to back weeks with 100+ yards rushing.
Outside of Week 14 where he got injured, Alvin Kamara has been extremely consistent this season with seven games with 20 or more DraftKings points and sits with 1,336 all-purpose yards and 12 touchdowns. Looking at the matchups, all three of their opponents rank in the top third of the league in rushing yards per game allowed but Tennessee is the only one of the three to hold opponents under 100 yards per game and they also rank 4th overall when looking at DraftKings points per game to running backs.
The game script definitely favors Gurley, however, and he has proven to be near matchup proof at this point. When looking at DraftKings points per game allowed, Hunt has the best matchup of the three as the Dolphins rank 28th in that category and they have also allowed the most rushing yards per game(109.9). The DVOA ranks tell another story as the Falcons rank 30th in that category against the rush which is great news for Kamara who is averaging 6.6 yards per carry this season. The only knock on Kamara is that he is sharing a backfield with Mark Ingram who is also having a heck of a season. Using FanShareSports early in the week, Hunt and Gurley are neck and neck at the top and should command ownership in this tier and for me, I will be running about 45% of each with a little mix of Kamara in some contrarian lineups.
Top Targets in this Tier – Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt
Tier 2
The second tier brings us two of the six running backs in the league who have already broke 1,000 yards rushing this season. I mentioned in the last tier how the Saints have been splitting the reps almost down the middle between rookie Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram and both are having tremendous season leading the Saints to the #1 overall DVOA rank in rushing. While the Falcons rank 12th when looking at DraftKings points allowed to running backs, they have been much worse on the DVOA scale ranking 30th this season. The Saints are currently 5.5 point favorites in a game with a 52.5 Vegas Total which could lead to another run-heavy game script for the Saints. While the game script for LeSean McCoy is not in his favor as the Bills are 11.5 point dogs to the Patriots, he has a lot going for him in this matchup. Both teams rank Top 10 in pace and McCoy always gets his share of touches in the offense regardless of game script. The Patriots have also been pretty bad against running backs as well as they have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game(122.3) and rank dead last in DVOA vs. the rush.
Up next, we have two elite receivers facing each other this week. The bad news for both of them is that both teams rank Top 12 in receiving yards per game and Top 15 in DVOA vs. the pass and both have elite corners in Marshon Lattimore(NO) and Desmond Trufant(ATL) who rank near the top of PFF’s cornerback rankings. The good news is that both receivers are getting targeted a ton in their respective offenses with Julio at 9.0 per game while Thomas is getting 9.7 per game. Julio leads with 1,215 yards while Thomas has 1,085 but Thomas has the slight edge in DraftKings points per game thanks to scoring two more touchdowns. This game is projected to be a shootout and the only game this week with a Vegas Total exceeding 50 so I don’t think you can go wrong with either here in this spot.
Top Targets in this Tier – Micheal Thomas, Mark Ingram
Tier 3
Gronk returned from his one-game suspension last week and went off again posting 168 yards on nine receptions. That gives him back to back weeks with 100 or more receiving yards and three straight weeks with 25 or more DraftKings points. I wouldn’t go as far to say he gets a great matchup this week as the Bills rank 12th in DVOA vs. the pass but have been much worse against tight ends than wideouts as they rank 22nd in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position vs. 9th against wideouts. Gronk is pretty matchup proof as well. The other tight end in this tier, Travis Kelce, sits second to Gronk in receiving yards this season with 991 but has the same amount of touchdowns with seven. He has also slightly out-targeted Gronk this season with 8.1 per game but more importantly this week, he gets a way better matchup. Not only do the Dolphins rank 27th in DVOA vs. the pass but they have been terrible vs. tight ends ranking 28th overall in DraftKings points allowed to the position.
We also get two runnings backs in this tier who have been very productive lately. Kenyan Drake took over the #1 role in the Dolphins backfield when Jay Ajayi was traded to Philly and has heated up lately with 100 yards or a touchdown in four straight games for an average of 22.4 DraftKings points per game. The matchup is a bit tricky this week as the Chiefs do rank 31st in DVOA vs. the rush but 11th in DraftKings points per game to the position. The biggest knock on Drake this week could be the game script as the Dolphins are currently 10 point road underdogs and projected for just over 16 points. Drake will undoubtedly be the lowest owned player in this tier. Melvin Gordon, despite only breaking 100 yds twice this season, has been very productive ranking 7th in rushing yards (931) and has topped 75 yards in three straight games and has scored a touchdown in back to back games. The matchup is so-so as the Jets rank 13th in DVOA vs. the rush and 14th in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs but he should get plenty of volume as the Chargers are 6.5 point favorites and projected to score around 25 points this week.
Top Targets in this Tier – Travis Kelce, Melvin Gordon
Tier 4
All four quarterbacks in this tier are at home and all of them beside Drew Brees are huge double-digit favorites. Looking at each player’s last four weeks performance, it has been Cam Newton and Alex Smith who have been far and away the best quarterbacks as both are averaging over 21 DraftKings points per game. Smith’s performance is a bit skewed as he had a huge week 13 scoring 40.6 DK points but didn’t exceed 20 in either of the other three weeks. Cam has been much more consistent with performances of 31.4, 15.5, 20.4, and 17.5 and he has also topped 20 DK points in 50% of his starts this season. He adds a ton of value using his rushing ability and leads all quarterbacks with 643 yards on the ground with five rushes of 20+ yards and five touchdowns.
Despite struggling recently with just two touchdowns over his last three games, Tom Brady still leads the league in passing while averaging 297 yards per game and trails on Carson Wentz and Russell Wilson in touchdown passes. As for Drew Brees, he has not thrown for 300 yards in four straight weeks and has only done so three times this season while throwing for three touchdowns just once and most of that can be contributed to the elite run game that Saints possess. When it comes down to matchups, Cam Newton clearly gets the best of them facing a Bucs team that has allowed a league-high 271.3 yards and ranks 29th in DVOA vs. the pass. Next best matchup goes to Alex Smith who faces a Dolphins team that sits mid-pack when looking at yards per game allowed (222.6) but ranks 27th in DVOA vs. the pass. Of the four, Tom Brady has the worst matchup on paper going against a Bills defense that ranks 12th in DVOA vs. the pass and 4th overall in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position.
Top Target in this Tier – Cam Newton, Alex Smith
Tier 5
Tier 5 gives us four quarterbacks who are all playing on the road this week and all but Matt Ryan are favorites. Matthew Stafford leads the way this season with 18.8 DraftKings points per game but it has been Phillip Rivers crushing value lately averaging 21.6 DraftKings points per game over his last four thanks to posting 20+ in three of those games. No other quarterback in this tier has more than one and Matt Ryan has zero after back to back performances of under 10 DraftKings points.
Rivers and Goff have the best matchups of the four as the Jets rank 22nd in DVOA vs. the pass and 27th in DK points per game allowed while the Titans rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 17th in DK points per game allowed to the position. Ryan gets the worst matchup in this tier facing the Saints who rank 4th in DVOA vs. the pass and 13thin DK points allowed while Stafford’s matchup is in the middle with the Bengals ranking 18th in DVOA vs. the pass and 11th in DK points allowed to the position but have definitely been trending down lately allowing quarterbacks to score an average of 21.1 DK points per game.
Top Targets in this Tier – Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford
Tier 6
Three of the four wide receivers (Hill, Funchess, Cooks) teams in this tier are double-digit favorites which could work against their game scripts a little bit but it will be hard to avoid some of the matchups. For instance, Devin Funchess faces a Bucs team that has allowed the most DraftKings points per game this season. He could also be lower owned here coming off a one-catch week for just 19 yards. The concern Funchess this week is the shoulder injury that has been nagging him as he was held out of practice on Wednesday. If you are looking for consistency then don’t overlook Tyreke Hill in this spot as he has tallied double-digit DK points in six straight and eight of his last 10 games, twice going over 25 points. Over the past four weeks, he has also seen an uptick in his targets(8 per game) and sees a matchup vs. the Dolphins who rank 27th in DVOA vs. the pass.
On the flip side, Brandin Cooks has been trending down lately averaging just six targets per game and has exceeded 75 yards just once in that time. Robert Woods made his return last week after being held out for three weeks due to injury and looked catching six of his seven targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. The Rams are 6.5 point favorites and although Todd Gurley has been red hot, they may need to throw a bit more as the Titans have been much worse against the pass this season ranking 24th in DVOA and 23rd in DraftKings points per game to wideouts.
Both running backs in this tier are in great spots this week as their teams (Panthers, Patriots) are both double-digit home favorites. Dion Lewis is likely in for a bit bigger role this week with Rex Burkhead out a couple weeks with a knee sprain. That is good news considering he has already been getting a nice run with double-digit carries in eight of his last nine games. He also gets an elite matchup vs. the Bills who have allowed 122 rushing yards per game (8th most) and the most DraftKings points per game to running backs this season. Christian McCaffrey leads all running backs with an average of 7.2 targets per game and has been a PPR star with double-digit fantasy points in 11 of his 14 games, going over 20 DK points five times.
Top Targets in this Tier – Dion Lewis, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreke Hill
Tier 7
I will start with the wideouts in this tier and not only does Jarvis Landry lead them all with an average of 16.3 DK points per game this season, he also gets the best matchup this week. He will be facing the Chiefs who have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game and while they rank 17th in DVOA vs. pass, they rank 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wide receivers. You also never have to worry about usage with Landry as he is one of just three players in 2017 to average double-digit targets each week (10.3).
The Bengals top wideout, A.J. Green, is not far behind averaging 8.8 targets per game and has been trending up lately with 10 targets per game over his last four but is coming off a down week where Xavier Rhodes shut him down with just two catches for 30 yards. Things don’t get any easier for Green this week as he will likely see a ton of Darius Slay who ranks as a Top 10 corner on Pro Football Focus.
On the other side of the ball, we have Marvin Jones Jr. who has been extremely consistent lately recording double-digit fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games with 20 or more in four of those games. While the Bengals rank 3rd in DK points per game allowed to wideouts, they have struggled a ton lately allowing a 100-yard receiver in three straight weeks (four total). Josh Gordon has been targeted 27 times in his three games since returning to the Browns and scored once but has yet to have that monster game we are all waiting for, maybe it’s the fact he is now playing sober (boom).
With Tevin Coleman out last week, Devonta Freeman got 24 carries but wasn’t overly impressive with 91 yards (3.8 per carry) but saved his fantasy day with a touchdown. This week it appears Coleman will be back in the mix which will limit Freeman’s carries but the Falcons are currently underdogs which could help him with some targets in the passing game. Jordan Howard has been up and down all season with four performances of 20+ DK points but has also put up six performances under 10 DK points. This week he faces a Browns team that ranks #1 in DVOA vs. the rush but have been trending down lately. The game script could definitely be in his favor as the Bears are currently 6.5 point favorites.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jarvis Landry, Marvin Jones Jr, Jordan Howard
Tier 8
While Marvin Jones has been the consistent piece of the Lions receiving core, Golden Tate has been hit and miss. He has tallied double-digit DK points twice in his last four games but also posted six DK points in the other two games. I mentioned the matchup earlier vs. the Bengals who have allowed four 100-yard receivers in the last three weeks so Tate is fully in play this week.
Robby Anderson was limited in Wednesday’s practice and even if he plays, he should be avoided as he is likely shadowed by PFF’s #1 ranked corner in Casey Hayward. Demaryius Thomas is on my radar this week and has been fairly productive lately catching 20 of his 38 targets for 207 yards and a touchdown. The problem this week is the matchup vs. the Redskins who rank 8th in DVOA vs. the pass and 8th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts.
Cooper Kupp has not been the most consistent fantasy option this season and a lot of that has to do with Todd Gurley running over defenses but Kupp is in a nice spot this week vs. the Titans who rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 23rd in DK points allowed to wideouts. With Julio Jones normally getting a ton of the opposing defenses attention, Mohamed Sanu has thrived on the other side lately with 20+ DK points in two of his last three games. Stay tuned for the injury status, however, as he was limited on Wednesday with a knee injury.
Bengals rookie running back, Joe Mixon, was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and likely to be cleared by the league to return this week. Should he get back on the field, he gets a nice matchup vs. the Lions who have allowed 111 yards rushing per game and rank 29th overall in DK points per game allowed to running backs.
Top Targets in this Tier – Golden Tate, Cooper Kupp, Joe Mixon(if he starts)
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!
Draftkings NFL Cash and GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 13
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 13
Week 13 is upon us and brings one of the toughest Draftkings slate of this season. There are four quarterback changes this week. Jay Cutler and Jameis Winston are returning from injury, while Jimmy Garoppolo and Geno Smith are getting their first starts of the season. This is a widely spread out slate, which means I expect ownership to be spread out across the positions.
Vegas:
Since Vegas lines have become such a huge part of the DFS community and are where most DFS players start their research, I decided to write up a portion outlining the big Vegas numbers. All Vegas totals will be taken from Fantasy Labs Vegas page on Wednesday.
This week there are no games with an over under above 50. There are four games bunched together with a total of over 47. Pats @ Bills 48.5, Panthers @ Saints 48, Eagles @ Seahawks 47.5, and Vikings @ Falcons 47. Aside from those four games, there are another four games with respectable totals between 44 and 46 points.
The teams with the highest implied total are the Patriots (28.5), Chargers (28.25), Saints (26), Rams (26), Raiders (25.75), Titans (25.25), Jags (25.5), and Falcons (25). There are a few games at risk of being a blowout and the Chargers headline the list as a two-touchdown favorite at home against the winless Browns. The Jags are the second largest favorite (-10) at home against the Colts. The Raiders (-9.5), Patriots (-8.5), Titans (-7), and the Rams (-7) are also a touchdown favorite. It’s worth targeting running backs at home as big favorites this week.
I encourage you to check out Vegas Insiders page on Sunday morning to see if there are any drastic changes to these game totals. Of course, Lineup Labs subs have access to this information in the player pool. Let’s dive into the slate.
Quarterbacks
Philip Rivers (DK $7,000) – As I mentioned at the top of this article, ownership is going to be widely spread out, especially at the quarterback position. Of all the quarterbacks on the DK main slate, Rivers may be the most popular for cash games. He’s a two-touchdown favorite with a team implied to score the second-most points on the slate against a Browns team that rank 28th in aFPA. Rivers is coming off back to back good games, in which he met his salary expectation, but that was back when his salary was below $6,000. Now he’s seen a price jump of $2,100 and is a risk for a negative game script. On the bright side, the Chargers play distribution is 59% pass to 41% run, so there’s a good possibility if the Chargers do score 28 points, Rivers will be in a position to rack up all those points. It’s always worth noting when teams are two-touchdown favorites that If they get up to a big league, they could lean heavily on the running game to kill the clock.
Jameis Winston (DK $5,600) – I will be watching Winston’s ownership very closely up until lock time. Winston returned to practice on Wednesday and was announced as the starter. That news suddenly led to move the Bucs to a 1 ½ point favorite on the road against the Packers. The Packers rank 30th in aFPA and were just ripped apart by the Steelers and Big Ben who projects very similar to Winston. The Bucs have a relatively low team total of 22, but they have had no running game all season long, which has led to the second most distribution of pass plays with a 62% – 37% mark. Winston was up and down earlier in the season, but that was mostly due to his price averaging over the $6,000 mark. Now he’s the lowest he’s been all season with a $5,600 price tag and in a good matchup. The one limitation to follow is the question of how healthy he truly is. I’m ranking Winston as my favorite points/dollar play at QB.
Blaine Gabbert (DK $4,700) – There’s enough value plays this week at quarterback to give you an option of not paying up for QB. Blaine Gabbert might be someone worthy of your considerations given his performances in his last two starts. In two starts this season, Gabbert has completed 61% of his passes and thrown for 498 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. That’s been more productive than expected given his mid 4K price range. What’s been most impressive about Gabbert’s stats is that he did it against good defenses (Jags and Texans), so while the Rams defense is probably not a matchup you want to pick on, Gabbert has been put to the test already this season. What I like most that is in Gabbert’s favor is that he’s a touchdown underdog. The Rams can put up points with the best of them so it wouldn’t surprise me if they jump to an early two-touchdown lead. That leads to a positive game script for Gabbert and more garbage time fantasy points. At $4,700 he only needs 16 points to reach value. He’s exceeded that mark in both of his starts so far.
Cash:
J. Winston, M. Mariota, T. Brady, C. Newton,
GPP:
(above), P. Rivers, J. Goff, D. Carr
Running Backs
Todd Gurley (DK $8,200) – Whenever Gurley does not figure to be the highest owned running back, I always want to consider him at least. Gurley is one of the running backs that has a high floor and higher ceiling, and he’s 4th in the league in touches. This week his team has an implied total of 26 points and are a touchdown favorite on the road. While the on the road aspect is not ideal, Gurley does not have home, and road splits so you can still safely project his volume. The Cardinals are rank worse against the pass (16th aFPA) versus against the run (6th aFPA), but Gurley sees enough volume to be still viable. Gurley has received 18 targets the past three weeks and has converted 13 of those into catches for 141 yards. Gurley is my favorite running back of the top tier given his floor and ceiling combination over Alvin Kamara.
Leonard Fournette (DK $7,800) – My next favorite back after Gurley is Fournette. Fournette is a massive 10 point favorite at home against the Colts who rank 30th in aFPA. Fournette is similar to Gurley where he sees the bulk of the team’s rushing touches and doesn’t have share snaps like the duo in New Orleans. The last time Fournette was a home favorite he failed to meet salary expectations, but this game script figures to be heavily in favor of Fournette. I also like that Fournette has seen more than 3 targets out of the backfield since returning from injury. I’m close to hitting the lock button on Fournette.
Jordan Howard (DK $6,500) – In the midrange there are a few running backs with favorable matchups starting with Howard and Carlos Hyde (DK $5,900). Both are receiving over 60% of the running back snaps and have accounted for over 60% of the team’s rushing yards. Howard comes into this matchup as a 3 point home favorite against the 49ers defense which ranks dead last in aFPA to running backs this season. Last week the game script significantly affected Howard’s production, but this game figures to be better for Howard.
Marshawn Lynch (DK $4,800) – I haven’t played Lynch all season, but if I will, it will be this week. Lynch is a huge home favorite (-9) and is facing the Giants who have already given up on the season and rank 27th in aFPA to RBs. The Raiders receiving staff is greatly depleted with Amari Cooper unlikely to play due to a concussion and Michael Crabtree unlikely to play due to suspension. That could lead to the Raiders running the ball more than their 61% – 39% distribution on the season.
Cash:
T. Gurley, L. Fournette, J. Howard, C. McCaffrey, M. Gordon, J. Williams (if active)
GPP:
(All of above), L. McCoy, Saints RBs, A. Peterson, D. Booker,
Wide Receivers
DeSean Jackson (DK $4,700) & Mike Evans (DK $7,100) – The top receivers of the week for me are both receivers from the Bucs. As I mentioned in the QB section, I love Winston returning this week, and this also correlates to both of his receivers. The Packers have been absolutely torched by opposing wide receivers and rank 31st in aFPA, averaging nearly 29 points per game. Mike Evans is a lock for double-digit targets, and Jackson has shown that he has a higher floor this season and is no longer just a deep threat. Oh, and did you see what Antonio Brown did last week? All in on the BUCS offense!
Cooper Kupp (DK $6,400) – Kupp stepped up last week for the Rams after an injury to Robert Woods left an opening as the second receiver in the Rams offense. Kupp received 11 targets, the most he’s received all season, and turned that into 8 catches and 116 yards. He runs the majority of his routes in the slot and will likely avoid Patrick Peterson with him likely to shadow Sammy Watkins. The best way to attack the Cardinals secondary is in the slot of by targeting anyone not being covered by Peterson. So Kupp should be popular in the mid 6K range.
Davante Adams (DK $6,400) – My preferred pivot off Kupp is Davante Adams. Adams has emerged as the Packers primary receiver since Brett Hundley took over for Aaron Rodgers. Adams leads the team in targets since week 6 with 52 and is averaging over 8 targets per game. He’s been priced very cheap this season and is now at his highest price of the season, so that’s not exactly ideal, but he sees a lot of volume, and the Bucs are last in the league in aFPA to wide receivers. He’s a nice way to get exposure to the Packers offense.
Cordarrelle Patterson (DK $3,400) & Seth Roberts (DK $3,700) – As I mentioned in the Lynch write up, the Raiders will be without their top two receivers creating an opening for both Roberts and Patterson. These receivers are in a good matchup against the Giants who rank 25th in aFPA and just put Janoris Jenkins on IR. On the season these two haven’t been target as much with only 65 targets between for receivers. Roberts has 38 targets, while Patterson has 27. Patterson leads Roberts in targets per snap (9.4% to 7.6%). Last season, Roberts was a target monster in the red zone, but that has changed with the addition of Jared Cook this offseason. Both are worth consideration for GPPs. I think I like Patterson more than Roberts just for the upside that he has to break a slant for a 50 yard gain, but it’s really a coin flip.
Higher Tier Receivers Worth Playing(Above 7K):
K. Allen, B. Cooks, A. Thielen, D. Hopkins, M. Evans
Mid Tier ($5,000 – $7,000):
D. Funches, T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Kupp, R. Anderson, L. Fitzgerald, M. Sanu, D. Thomas, M. Lee
Value (Sub $5,000):
E. Sanders, D. Jackson, Z. Jones, D. Westbrook, J. Gordon, S. Roberts, C. Patterson, R. Cobb, D. Inman
Tight End
Jared Cook (DK $5,400) – Cook will likely be the most popular tight end on the slate with the Raiders wide receivers out. He’s much safer than Patterson and Roberts as Carr has targeted him at least 5 times in all but one game this season. It also turns out that he’s in a great matchup against the Giants who rank 32nd in the league against tight ends. Cook is a safe way to get exposure to the Raiders offense without hurting the floor of your lineup.
Hunter Henry (DK $4,700) – I love me some Hunter Henry this week. Tight end is a position where I don’t like to overthink it and often just follow the flowchart. Who’s playing the Browns? Who’s their leading tight end? Play that tight end. That is Henry this week. Henry has entirely taken over the tight end job over Gates and played 76% of snaps last week, bringing his snap percentage to 65% on the season. He’s also out targeting Gates 44-30 and has 10 targets in the last two weeks. The only thing keeping me from locking in Henry is that I like Cook quite a bit this week.
Cash:
J. Cook, H. Henry, T, Kelce, B. Watson, D. Walker
GPP:
(All above), R. Gronkowski, J. Thomas (#RevengeGame)
Defense
Denver Broncos ($3,000) – The Broncos are road favorites against the Dolphins who are implied to score 19 points and are getting turnover prone Jay Cutler back. The Broncos have been really disappointing this season, but they have seen their price decrease to $3,000 for the first time since they played the Patriots. The Dolphins are nowhere near the Patriots, and the Broncos should feast.
Cash:
LAR, DEN, TEN
GPP:
(All above) LAC, TB, MIA, BALT
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 12
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 12
Tier 1
We start off in the first tier with two running backs facing each other this weekend. Kareem Hunt sits second in the league in rushing yards(873) but has been in a downward spiral lately with five straight games without a 100+ yard game or a touchdown. He gets another elite matchup this week facing a Bills team that has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game(119.9), rank 31st in DVOA vs. the rush, and 31st in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. On the other side of the ball, we have LeSean McCoy who sits eighth in league rushing yards(709) but has been inconsistent with four games under 50 yards and three games over 100 yards. The good news is he gets a terrific matchup vs. the Chiefs who have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game(129.2) and rank 32nd in DVOA vs. the rush. The one thing that scares me is that they rank ninth when looking at Draftkings points per game allowed to running backs and it has to do with their ability to limit the yards through the air. They have allowed a league-low 235 yards total and zero touchdowns.
Looking at the wide receivers, there are some glaring differences which should make the decision a bit easier this week. Julio Jones slightly leads the way in receiving yards(786 to 743) but has had a ton of trouble scoring with just one touchdown on the season. His injuries have also been a problem which have limited him to an average of 72% of the snaps compared to Green’s 87% on the season. Touchdowns are what pay the bills in fantasy and Green has scored one in two straight and six of his last eight games. The only issue is the individual matchup as Green will likely see a ton of Jason McCourty who is PFF’s 3rd ranked cornerback this season.
Top Targets in this Tier – Kareem Hunt, Julio Jones
Tier 2
Travis Kelce leads the second tier as he averages 17.5 DraftKings points for the season. He has collected seven or more receptions in three straight weeks, picked up 100+ yards in two of his last three games(four times this season), and has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games as well. The matchup gets a little tougher this week as the Bills rank 13th in DVOA vs. the pass and 15th in DraftKings points per game allowed to the tight end as they have limited them to just two touchdowns on the season. He is clearly Alex Smith’s top target in the passing game but I have a strong feeling the Chiefs will be feeding Kareem Hunt this week. For Tevin Coleman, it will come down to the status of Devonta Freeman who is still in the concussion protocol as of Tuesday. Coleman has filled in nicely and has now scored in three straight weeks. The Falcons are double-digit favorites vs. the Bucs so if Freeman is out, look for another high volume game from Coleman.
When it comes to the wide receivers, we get a couple target monsters in Jarvis Landry(10.8 per game) and Mike Evans(9.3 per game) who are both playing on the road. Of the two, it is Evans who gets the much tougher matchup vs. the Falcons secondary that has limited teams to 200.8 yards per game through the air(7th overall) and the sixth-fewest DraftKings points per game. Although he managed five catches for 92 yards last week with Ryan Fitzpatrick, it is still a downgrade from Jameis Winston in an already tough matchup. For Landry, the game script is right up his alley as the Dolphins are huge 17 point dogs which will force Jay Cutler to throw it a ton and although they have been better lately, the Pats still rank 29th in DVOA vs. the pass and 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts.
Top Targets in this Tier – Tevin Coleman, Jarvis Landry
Tier 3
The biggest decision in this tier will be between the two Patriots as they get an elite matchup vs. the Dolphins who rank 31st in DVOA vs. the pass. Cooks will likely be the higher owned of the two, coming off a monster game where he caught six of nine targets for 149 yards and a touchdown, but gets the tougher matchup as Miami ranks 16th overall in DraftKings points per game to wideouts. I don’t think he is a fade, by any means, but I prefer Gronk as the Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points per game to wideouts and like I said, should be lower owned. T.Y. Hilton is a fade at this point as he has not only been inconsistent but his quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, is still in the concussion protocol. Christian McCaffrey is a great option this week as he has seen an increased role in the running game, especially in the red zone, and comes in with rushing touchdowns in back to back weeks. He also leads all running backs with an average of 7.9 targets per week which would also put him 17th when adding in wide receivers. This is a perfect scenario for DraftKings which is full PPR.
Top Targets in this Tier – Rob Gronkowski, Christian McCaffrey
Tier 4
First of all, I think we can avoid Zach Ertz this week after he made his return from a hamstring injury last week but appeared to not be a part of the game plan as he was targeted just five times, catching two of them for eight yards. It also doesn’t help his cause facing a Bears team that ranks ninth overall in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position giving up two touchdowns all season. His teammate Jay Ajayi doesn’t have much going for him either as the Bears rank 16th in DK points per game allowed to running backs and despite breaking off two long runs over his last two games has only seen 15 total carries since joining the Eagles. The issue is the team using all four running backs despite Ajayi being the most talented. The entire Chiefs offense let us down last week but on a positive note, Tyreke Hill caught all seven of his targets for 68 yards and gets a plus matchup vs. the Bills who have allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game(246.9) and rank 19th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. Greg Olsen is set to return this week for the Panthers which could possibly cut into Devin Funchess’ targets but with Curtis Samuel out for the season, I am not too concerned at this point. He is also coming off his best game of the season where he recorded five receptions for a season-high 92 yards and his second multi-touchdown game. He faces a Jets team that ranks mid-pack when looking at passing yards allowed per game(229) but ranks 22nd in DVOA vs. the pass and 21st in DraftKings points allowed to wideouts.
Top Targets in this Tier – Devin Funchess, Tyreke Hill
Tier 5
The first tier of quarterbacks gives us four options with excellent matchups against teams who both rank outside the Top 20 in DVOA vs. the pass and DraftKings points allowed to the position. Matt Ryan and the Falcons are 10-point favorites at home to the Bucs who have allowed the second most passing yards per game(276.3) so if you are playing Julio in Tier 1, I think it makes sense to go with Matt Ryan here. I mentioned the tough matchup for A.J. Green in the first tier but to be a bit contrarian in your lineup you can pair him with Andy Dalton who is likely the lowest owned quarterback in this tier. Alex Smith leads all quarterbacks in this tier with an average of 21 DK points per game but is on an ugly stretch where he is averaging just 231.7 yards per game over his last three games and thrown for just three touchdowns. It also hurts Smith a bit considering Kareem Hunt and the run game get an elite matchup vs. the Bills 31st ranked rush defense. While Cam Newton didn’t reach the 300-yard passing mark in his last game before the Bye Week, he did have a monster game with four passing touchdowns and also rushed five times for 95 yards totaling 35.66 DraftKings points. The total falls below 40 this week which is a bit scary but the Jets have been much better vs. the run this season ranking 11th in DK points allowed to running backs while ranking outside the Top 20 in DK allowed to quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends. Finally, we get Marcus Mariota who topped 20 DraftKings points for the first time last game with 306 yards passing with one touchdown and added a rushing touchdown as well. The Colts have been terrible against the pass this season allowing the third-most yards per game(274.5) but Mariota just hasn’t shown us the upside needed to win a tournament.
Top Targets in this Tier – Matt Ryan, Cam Newton
Tier 6
I will start with the running backs as one is leading the tier in fantasy points per game and the other is at the bottom. With his second 100-yard game in three weeks and fourth on the season, Jordan Howard now sits third in the league with 841 rush yards. The issue this week is the matchup as the Bears go on the road to face the 9-1 Eagles who have limited teams to a league-best 71 yards rushing per game and have allowed the third-fewest DraftKings points per game to running backs. As for DeMarco Murray, he has been leading the way in the timeshare with Derrick Henry but has received less than 15 carries in three straight games while not topping 50 yards once. The good news for Murray is that he gets a plus matchup vs. the Colts who rank 25th in DraftKings points per game to running backs.
Looking at the wideouts in this tier, I will start with the injury to Danny Amendola. He caught eight of his nine targets last week in Mexico but was limited in the second half and was also limited in practice all week leading up to this game. I will be fading him this week as he is nothing more than the third or fourth option in the pass game with the likes of Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks, and the running backs in the mix. Alshon Jeffery has been coming on strong lately and has scored a touchdown in three straight games(four total) topping 15 DraftKings points in each. With Zach Ertz still possibly dealing with an injury, I think Jeffery can still hit value for us despite the tougher matchup vs. the Bears who have allowed the 12th fewest passing yards per game(213) and also rank 12th in DraftKings points per game to wideouts. They just have not faced a passing attack quite like the Eagles present with Carson Wentz. The other matchup I am targeting in this tier is Rishard Matthews, despite my lack of enthusiasm for Marcus Mariota’s ceiling. Matthews leads the Titans wideouts in targets this season and coming off a season where he led the team with nine touchdowns, he has heated up with one in two of his last three games and is coming off his best game of the season with 113 receiving yards.
Top Targets in this Tier – Alshon Jeffery, Rishard Matthews
Tier 7
Starting with some injury news, Devonta Freeman was once again absent from Falcons practice on Wednesday as he is still dealing with a concussion. Even if he gets in a limited practice near the end of the week and plays, I will be fading him and playing Tevin Coleman who I mentioned above.
Then we have two tight ends facing each other this week. Both defenses rank inside the Top 20 in DK points per game allowed to the position and with Jack Doyle possibly without his quarterback this week, I will be fading him. If you are planning on choosing one of these two I would suggest Delanie Walker. Despite not scoring a receiving touchdown in 2017, he has been targeted on the regular with nine or more in three of his last four games and has been a safe option with double-digit DK points in all four of those games.
For the wideouts, we get three secondary options on their respective teams. Kenny Still leads the way in this tier averaging 13.2 DK points per game but is the third option on the Dolphins behind Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker. He is definitely a boom or bust deep threat that has shown us the upside and is coming off his biggest game of the year where he caught seven of eight targets, including a 45-yard and 61-yard catch, for 180 yards and a touchdown. Mohamed Sanu has caught a touchdown in three of his last four games but isn’t getting the volume in the Falcons passing game with just three receptions in three straight games. Against a weak Bucs passing defense that could go up a little bit so if you are using Matt Ryan in Tier 5, Sanu makes a nice stacking option with touchdown upside.
Top Targets in this Tier – Mohamed Sanu, Delanie Walker
Tier 8
Although Duke Johnson is showing a questionable tag at the moment, he was removed from the Browns injury report and is good to go on Sunday. He continues to get out-carried by Isaiah Crowell but is a big factor in the passing game as he has picked up five or more targets in all but one game this season which is perfect for DraftKings and its full PPR point system. DeSean Jackson has been his deep-threat self this season with just one catch over 40 yards and combine that with the tough matchup vs. the Falcons and he is a full fade for me this week. Corey Coleman made his return to the Browns offense last week and made an immediate impact catching six of a team-high 11 targets for 80 yards. The Bengals have been tough on wideouts all year ranking fourth in DK points per game allowed but I still like him as a contrarian option as Duke Johnson should be the highest-owned option in this tier. Neither of the tight ends present a ton of upside but if you are choosing one, I prefer Austin Sefarian-Jenkins who has been a nice redzone target for the Jets as he has caught four of his six inside the 20-yard line for all three of his touchdowns. It is also noteworthy that Charles Clay may still be dealing with a knee injury as he has been limited at practice again this week and has been quiet in his two games since returning to the lineup. It doesn’t help that the Bills keep flip flopping with their quarterbacks.
Top Target in this Tier – Corey Coleman, Duke Johnson, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 10
Draftkings NFL & Cash GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 10
Week 10 of the NFL features four teams on bye, and three of the four are teams that we generally like to use players from their offense. The Ravens, Chiefs, Raiders, and Eagles are on bye. Teams that are also not on the Draftkings main slate are the Seahawks, Cardinals, Patriots, Broncos, Dolphins, and Panthers. The slate features three teams that are more than 10 point favorites in the Lions (-13), Rams (-11.5), and the Steelers (-10.5).
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Quarterbacks:
There are four teams implied to score more than 25 points this week, which is generally the mark we like to target for QBs. The Rams lead the league in scoring and lead the slate with a 28.5 implied total. The Lions are second with a similar projection at 28.25. The Steelers and Falcons are both implied to score about 27 points. These QBs should lead the pack in ownership this week a the QB position.
Matthew Stafford (DK $6,800) – Stafford is the third highest priced QB on the main slate and faces the Browns who allowed the league’s worst aFPA (Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed) (20.4) to quarterbacks, per 4for4. Stafford is coming off of a 25 point performance against a bad Packers secondary. Stafford has thrown for over 300 yards in his last three games and has reached value in each of those starts. Stafford is still relatively priced down due to the fact he played on Monday night and is at $6,800. The Lions are implied to score the second highest points on the slate, and because of their running back committee, Stafford typically accounts for all the team’s points. Stafford is a safe cash play and is also viable in GPP’s.
Ben Roethlisberger (DK $6,600) – For $200 less, you can end up with Big Ben who is in a great spot this week. He goes up against a Colts defense that has been vulnerable to opposing quarterbacks when their team was implied to score more than 24 points. The Colts rank 25th in the league in aFPA, per 4for4 and Roethlisberger, is coming off of a bye. My concern here with Ben as a cash play is that the Steelers are on the road. Ben historically struggles on the road and quite frankly hasn’t been good this season for DFS. Ben has only hit value once this season but comes in with the most upside of all the quarterbacks. I’d use Ben as a GPP play only and find the extra $200 to get up to Stafford.
Value Play
Marcus Mariota (DK, $5,800) – An exciting value play is Marcus Mariota. I always like playing Mariota for his rushing upside, and now that he has his Chris Davis back he has more weapons at his disposal. Mariota goes up against a Bengals defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in aFPA. He’s failed to meet value five of his last six games, but the bright side is that you get him at a $600 discount. At $5,800 he only needs 17 points to hit value, and we’ve seen Mariota hit that earlier this season with Davis on the field. Mariota is a sneaky value GPP play that can help you fit in stud running backs.
Cash game plays:
M. Stafford, D. Prescott, T. Taylor, M. Ryan
Gpp plays:
(all of the above) B. Roethlisberger, M. Mariota, E. Manning
Running Backs:
This is a FANTASTIC week to pay up for running backs! Le’Veon Bell is the top-priced back at $9,800 on the road. Elliott and Gurley follow with an $8,800 and $8,700 price tag, respectfully. And then we have a slight drop off in price with Fournette ($8,400) and McCoy ($8,300). If I’m ranking these, I’d go Elliott, Gurley, Bell, McCoy, Fournette.
Ezekiel Elliott (DK $8,800) – Elliott again avoided suspension for yet another week. While that’s great for DFS, it’s a huge headache for season long. Fortunately, this write up is for DFS and Zeke is in another great spot. Zeke failed to reach value last week against the Chiefs, but outside of last week, he’s been a monster the two weeks before that. Zeke has 88 touches the past three weeks and has six touchdowns to show for the volume. This week he’s going up against the Falcons who allow the 6th most points to opposing running backs in PPR formats. They just let Christian McCaffrey score 20.4 PPR. That’s why I like Elliott; the Falcons are among the worst defenses in the league to give up points to pass-catching running backs. However, for Elliott, there is a concern being that he only has five targets and two catches in the last three games. I like Elliott more for GPP’s, but Gurley is by far the safer cash game play. I just have a feeling that the game flow could benefit Zeke getting around 35 touches.
Todd Gurley (DK $8,700) – If you like to go for trends then, Gurley is the obvious play over Zeke. Gurley checks all the boxes you’d want for a running back. He’s at home, favored by 11.5 points, and his team is implied to score the most points on the slate. Gurley has seen 12 targets out of the backfield and has caught seven passes for 97 yards. If there’s any concern here is that Gurley’s matchup is tough on paper. The Texans have allowed the least PPR fantasy points to running backs this season (15.7). The Texans rank second behind the Vikings in allowing opposing running backs to reach value with a -5.7 +/- rating per Fantasy Labs. The matchup is tough, but the Rams could get up early and feed Gurley so I can see him getting 25-30 targets.
Jordan Howard (DK $6,100) – Jordan Howard has received a lot of volume in the last four weeks. Howard has received 99 carries and has gained 410 yards in that four-week span. He’s getting a lot of work for a back at 6k and should eclipse 25+ touches. The issue with Howard is that he’s not very active on the receiving end. But in this case, I’m okay with giving up that receiving equity to gain the rushing attempts against a Packers defense that has given up the 10th most rushing TDs. Howard is a nice cash game play as a home favorite.
Carlos Hyde (DK $6,300) – Sticking around the same price range, Carlos Hyde has also been getting an uptick in touches since their rookie quarterback took over. Last week Hyde went for 4x value when he had a team-high 11 targets and caught nine balls for 84 yards to go along with his 12 carries. The 49ers pass blocking is terrible, and they rank in the top 10 in run blocking. In a game that should remain close, the 49ers could lean on Hyde over Bethard’s arm against the Giants who rank 21st in aFPA to running backs.
Bilal Powell (DK $4,000) – Forte missed practice on Wednesday. If Forte is out, Powell will see an uptick in snaps and targets. He’s your ideal back in a PPR format so if Forte’s limited he’s worth a shot.
Cash:
E. Elliott, T. Gurley, L. Fournette, J. Howard, O. Darkwa
Gpp:
(all of above) L. Bell, L. McCoy, L. Fournette, M. Gordon, C. McCaffery, M. Ingram, T. Rawls
Wide Receiver:
Julio Jones (DK, $8,000) – Seriously, what is up with Julio this year? I knew the Falcons offense would regress without Kyle Shanahan, but I did not expect Julio to only have one touchdown through week 10. Last week was Julio’s best game in terms of yardage. He saw double-digit targets (12) for only the 3rd time this season and caught half of his targets for 118 yards. The Cowboys rank 24th in the league in aFPA allowed to wide receivers so if Julio is going to get going you’d expect it to come in a home game that could go back and forth. This game has the highest over/under on the slate so it also has the potential to shoot out.
Golden Tate (DK $6,800) & Marvin Jones Jr. (DK $6,200) – If we expect Stafford to be the highest owned quarterback on the slate, it’s not a bad idea to bring it back with his two primary receivers. We saw Jones go off against the Packers on Monday night and his price does not reflect it, jumping up only $700. Jones actually leads the team in targets the past 3 games with 44 and Tate is second with 32. Tate is more of the slot receiver that racks up PPR points, while Jones is emerging as the bigger red zone threat. Both are in play here against a Browns defense that doesn’t scare me.
Robert Woods (DK $5,000) – Can I catch lightning in a bottle two weeks in a row? I’m not sure. But the Rams receivers are in a decent spot against the Texans who rank 29th in the league in aFPA to wide receivers. Over the past three games, Woods has taken over the target share for the Rams passing offense. Woods leads the wide receivers with 27 targets, followed by Cooper Kupp with 26 and over-rated Sammy Watkins has 16 in the past three weeks. There isn’t much separation, but Woods has returned value his last four games. The problem is that I will likely get my exposure to this high team total with Gurley and Woods is $1,300 more expensive than the past four games.
Value Receivers (I like these value receivers quite a bit)
Adam Humphries (DK $3,100) – He’s the T.Y. Hilton of this week. Nearly the stone minimum with an increase of snap count and a potential increase in targets with Mike Evans suspended for this game. I’m not sure if he’ll be popular, yet but he’s a clear value play to punt at this position. I’m hesitant because Ryan Fitzpatrick will be throwing him the ball and their team total is very low at 20 points.
Corey Davis (DK $4,000) – I’m a fan of Corey Davis for the talent he has. He had a very promising first week of the season, receiving ten targets and catching more than half of those but his progression was slowed down by injury. Last week he returned and played 75% of the snaps. He received five targets and caught two passes. I expect Davis to be on the field more and if you’re playing Mariota, why not stack him with Davis for some salary relief.
Marqise Lee (DK $4,100) – Lee has been the biggest beneficiary once Allen Robinson went down. Since week 2, Lee leads the team in targets with 54 and is averaging over seven targets per game. This week he faces the Chargers who are 17th in aFPA to wide receivers.
Cash:
A. Brown, J. Julio, G. Tate/M. Jones, A. Thielen, A. Humphries, M. Lee
Gpp:
D. Hopkins, D. Bryant, S. Diggs, J. Kearse, R. Woods, J. Smith-Schuster, S. Shepard
Tight End:
Eric Ebron (DK $3,100) – Again, back to the Lions passing attack. But this is just following my general rule of thumb. Which team is playing the Browns? Which tight end is starting for them? Play that tight end. Ebron has only scored once this season, but the Browns have given up 6 to tight ends this season.
Garrett Celek (DK $2,500) – Starting tight end George Kittle has already been ruled out for this game, pushing Celek into the starting lineup. In 3 games since starting for the 49ers, Cj Beathard has targeted his tight ends 18 times. The Giants are second to last behind the Browns for most aFPA to tight ends.
Cash:
E. Engram, C. Brate, E. Ebron, G. Celek
Gpp:
V. Davis, D. Walker, H. Henry,
Defense:
Defenses are the most volatile picks in a DFS lineup; I often recommend going with whatever is best for your roster construction. This week there are three teams as big favorites and are viable plays. The Browns, Packers, Colts, Texans, Bengals, Chargers, 49ers, and Bucs are all implied to score less than 20 points. Targeting any one of their opponents should be fine for a defense to play.
Cash:
Tennessee, Los Angeles, Chicago, Detroit
Gpp:
Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, New York Giants
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Week 10
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Week 10
Tier 1
Very interesting opening tier where DraftKings decided to put Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown together. Not only is it very close as they are both averaging 21 DraftKings points per game but the Steelers are also a Top 10 rushing team and passing team when looking at the DVOA ranks and the Colts are at the bottom of the league in both passing and rushing defense. With the Steelers sitting as double-digit favorites(-10.5), I tend to lean on Bell who should see some extra volume in the second half if the Steelers can get the early lead. When it comes to the other two running backs in this tier, they are very comparable when looking at the matchups. Both the Chargers and Saints have been Top 10 vs. the pass this season(DVOA) and sit in the upper half of the league when looking at DraftKings points allowed to wideouts and tight ends but both sit outside the Top when looking at rushing defense. I lean Fournette here as Jacksonville is a four-point home favorite and have an elite defense that should be able to shut down the Chargers. Fournette is also a big bounce back candidate that should be revved up after being benched for violating team rules. It also helps that the Jags heavily rely on him for most of their offense.
Top Targets in this Tier – Le’veon Bell, Leonard Fournette
Tier 2
Another interesting decision to make in the second tier as both Saints running backs are in play. Mark Ingram out snapped Kamara last week 36-25 but it was Kamara having the better fantasy day as he rushed 10 times for 68 yards and a touchdown and also caught six of his seven targets for 84 yards and a touchdown for 32.2 DraftKings points. The Saints now own the 3rd best rushing offense(DVOA) and get another decent matchup this week as -2.5 favorites vs. the Bills who rank 17th in DVOA vs. the rush and 16th in DraftKings points allowed to the running back. With the Bills being even better against the pass, I lean Ingram who should once again see more snaps and likely another 15+ carries. Melvin Gordon is coming off a bye week after blowing up against the Patriots in Week 8 as he rushed for 132 on just 14 carries thanks to an explosive 87-yard touchdown run. The Jags rush defense has also improved lately as the held the Bengals to just 30 yards from the running back and the week before held the Colts to just 65 yards(running backs). Gordon could very well be the lowest owned player in this tier. The last option we have is wide receiver turned UFC fighter, A.J. Green. All jokes aside, Green is an elite wideout who ranks 8th in receiving yards(578) and has also scored four touchdowns. He gets an elite matchup this week as the Titans have been rock solid against the run but struggled against the passing game as they rank 22nd in DVOA vs. the pass and 20th in DraftKings points allowed to wide receivers.
Top Targets in this Tier – A.J. Green, Mark Ingram
Tier 3
First things first, Mike Evans has been suspended after his altercation with Marshon Lattimore last week and the appeal was denied confirming he will not play this weekend. Michael Thomas, after 11 targets last week, continues to be the favorite option for Drew Brees but he hasn’t scored in for straight games and has just two touchdowns on the season which limits the overall upside. He also gets a tougher matchup this week vs. the Bills who rank 14th in DVOA vs. the pass and 16th in DraftKings points allowed to wideouts. Golden Tate of the Lions has split targets with Marvin Jones this season but like Thomas is a more of a cash game, high-floor type player with just two touchdowns on the season. The matchup is also a bit tricky to figure out as the Browns rank 28th in DVOA vs. the pass but rank 8th overall in Draftkings points allowed to wideouts. I tend to lean towards them being a good defense vs. the pass as Jason McCourty ranks 2nd overall and Briean Boddy-Calhoun ranks 13th overall in PFF’s cornerback rankings. When analyzing the running backs in this tier, they both have somewhat favorable game scripts as both the Vikings and Bears are favorites in their respective matchups. I tend to lean towards Jordan Howard who gets a matchup vs. the Packers who rank 25th in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs while McKinnon faces a Redskins team that ranks 15th in that category. The other key is that Howard is seeing a 62% snap count share on the season while McKinnon is seeing just 43% of the snaps.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jordan Howard, Golden Tate
Tier 4
In the first quarterback tier, I have a feeling that Matt Stafford and Ben Roethlisberger will be the chalky options as both teams are currently sitting as double-digit favorites and projected for the most points on the slate. Stafford is coming off an impressive Monday Night Football win in Green Bay where he completed 26 of 33 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns. After not throwing for 300+ yards in his first five games of the season, he has now down so in three straight putting up 20+ DraftKings points in each. With the Lions lack of a running game(79.9 yards per game) and the Browns ranking 28th in DVOA vs. the pass, Stafford could be in for another big week. Roethlisberger also gets a top matchup this week vs. a Colts team that has allowed the second most yards per game through the air(279.7) and ranks 27th in DraftKings points per game allowed to the quarterback. In the Bills/Saints game, I lean Drew Brees as the Saints rank 4th in passing yards per game(269.8) while the Bills rank 30th(186.9). The other key factor in play is that the Saints much-improved defense ranks 12th in passing yards per game allowed(210.5) and 4th overall when looking at DVOA vs. the pass. Finally, one of the most surprising quarterbacks of the season has been Josh McCown who sits second in completion percentage(70.4%) and 12th in passing yards(1,980) despite the Jets ranking 24t in DVOA passing. He also gets a plus matchup this week facing a Bucs team that ranks 31st in DVOA vs. the pass and 27th in DraftKings points allowed to the quarterback position.
Top Targets in this Tier – Matt Stafford, Josh McCown
Tier 5
Tier 5 presents some very tough decisions as all four quarterbacks playing at home get tough matchups vs. teams that rank inside the Top 10 in DraftKings points allowed to the quarterback position and 17th or better when looking at DVOA vs. the pass. Of those four, Kirk Cousins leads the way averaging 19.7 DraftKings points per game but faces a Vikings team coming off a bye week and allowing the seventh-fewest passing yards per game this season(200.8). I won’t be touching Blake Bortles this week who is averaging just 207 yards per game but it has more to do with Leonard Forunette who will be back in the mix and likely to see a large workload after a week off “to rest”. Jacoby Brissett is another quarterback I will be avoiding this week facing a stout Steelers pass defense that has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game(180) and third-fewest DraftKings points per game to the position. The two options at the top of my list are Marcus Mariota who is coming off a two-touchdown performance but more importantly, is back using his legs with 14 rushing attempts over the past two weeks. At the top of my list in this tier is on the other side of the ball where Andy Dalton gets the only matchup of the five QB’s against a defense ranked outside the Top 20 in DVOA vs. the pass. Hopefully, his top target in A.J. Green can remain on the field for the entire game and if he does I think Dalton has a shot at leading this tier in fantasy points this week.
Top Targets in this Tier – Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota
Tier 6
Aaron Jones is the only running back in the sixth tier and very well could be the lowest owned coming off a terrible week where he rushed for just 12 yards. The big risk with Jones is the fact he will be working in a committee with Ty Montgomery. Next up, we got both Vikings starting receivers and it really comes down to the rest of your lineup construction. If you took some risks in other tiers, I would suggest going with Thielen who has been very consistent this season with 9.4 targets per week and has topped 90 yards in four of his eight games. If it’s upside you’re after, take a shot with Diggs who has topped 90 yards three times(173 in week 3) and has two multi-touchdown games. The biggest risk with the Vikings wideouts is the matchup as they travel to Washington to face a Josh Norman and the Redskins who rank 11th in DVOA vs. the pass and have allowed the fifth-fewest DraftKings points per game. I think a lot of people will be chasing the points with T.Y. Hilton this week after his explosive performance in Week 9 where he tallied 175 yards on just five catches and scored twice. The problem this week is that the matchup is much tougher against the Steelers who rank 5th in DVOA vs. the pass and have allowed the second-fewest DraftKings points per game to wideouts. Speaking of tough matchups, Marvin Jones Jr. also gets a tough matchup as he is likely to see shadow coverage from Jason McCourty who ranks second overall on PFF’s cornerback rankings this season. Then we have JuJu Smith-Schuster who will be working out of the slot for the Steelers and gets a terrific matchup vs. the Colts who have allowed the second most passing yards per game(279.7), rank 25th in DVOA vs. the pass, and have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to wideouts. He is also likely to see coverage from Pierre Desir who ranks 102nd of 115 eligible cornerbacks on the PFF rankings.
Top Targets in this Tier – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adam Thielen
Tier 7
In the seventh tier, I will start with a couple players I will be avoiding and it starts with Jordy Nelson who has been irrelevant since losing his starting quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, to injury in Week 6. The next fade for me is DeSean Jackson of the Bucs who has had a tough time since changing teams in 2017 with just 422 yards receiving and has only broke 50 yards once in his last four games. Adding to that is the fact that he also lost his starting quarterback, Jameis Winston, who will be sitting out a couple weeks with multiple injuries. I am shocked to be saying this but one of the most consistent options in this tier has been Tedd Ginn Jr. as he has broke 50 yards in four straight games scoring two touchdowns and even breaking 100 yards in that time. When teams have put emphasis on shutting down Michael Thomas, he has been a top target for Drew Brees alongside rookie running back Alvin Kamara. While the Bills have some very talented corners, they rank 26th in passing yards allowed(250.3) this season. That leaves Chris Thompson who operates as the Redskins passing down running back and has been very successful this season ranking seventh in targets per game(5.8) among running backs and has recorded double-digit fantasy points in six of his eight games. Then we have one of the biggest surprises of the season at any position with Robby Anderson who leads the Jets with 6.3 targets per game and has exceeded 75 yards three times and comes in red-hot scoring a touchdown in three straight games. I have a good feeling he can keep that streak going as he gets an elite matchup vs. the Bucs who rank 31st in DVOA vs. the pass and have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to wideouts.
Top Targets in this Tier – Robby Anderson, Chris Thompson
Tier 8
To start with, we have some injuries to monitor as Sunday approaches. After his best game of the season and out-snapping Bilal Powell in three straight weeks, Matt Forte missed practice on Wednesday with swelling in his surgically-repaired knee. Delanie Walker also missed practice on Wednesday with an injured ankle but his status is a little better as he played through the injury last week and led the team in receiving yards. The questionable tag might keep people off him this week presenting some low ownership in this tier with big upside as Marcus Mariota’s favorite target. I will be avoiding Keenan Allen this week who not only has disappointed with just one score this year but also gets a terrible matchup vs. the Jags who lead the league in passing yards allowed per game(156.4), DVOA vs. the pass, and DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. The Kelvin Benjamin situation is another one I will be fading due to it being his first game with a new offense after coming over in a trade at the deadline and it doesn’t help he gets a tough matchup vs. a much-improved Saints defense that ranks 4th in DVOA vs. the pass. I need to see how he fits in before restoring him this season. Since Brett Hundley has taken over as the Packers quarterback, it has been Devante Adams leading the team with 25 targets, 14 receptions and 119 yards with one touchdown. The Packers get a tough matchup but Adams is likely to lead the team once again and it is a near must-win situation for the team to keep their playoff hopes alive. I mentioned above how I will be fading Blake Bortles of the Jags as 1. he has no upside and 2. they rely heavily on Leonard Fournette. This is a tough tier and I do feel we can turn to Marqise Lee who has received double-digit targets in two of his last three weeks and now leads the team with 7.3 per game on the season. He has also topped 75 or more yards in three straight games and scored his first touchdown last week vs. the Bengals. We will also have to monitor his status at practice on Thursday and Friday as he wasn’t present on Wednesday but according to Jags beat writers, hasn’t practiced since mid-October but has not missed a game.
Top Target in this Tier – Devante Adams, Marqise Lee
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!
Fantasy Football 101: Draft Picks Strategies and Running Back Concerns
Last week I wrote up a report on how to approach your fantasy draft before your draft day. Whether this is your first ever fantasy football draft or your tenth, that guide will help you craft a team that will put you in a good position to win your league with the proper draft pick strategies.
Now, being that it is “National Draft Week,” I’ll look into providing you with a strategy for wherever you may be picking, either 1-12 through the first five rounds in this installment of Fantasy Football 101. A lot can be pre-decided if you know where you are picking in your fantasy draft, but the later picks in the draft should generate some discussion.
Generally, a top 5 pick guarantees you a top tier running back to build your team around. Unfortunately, that’s not the case this season. This season the “top tier” running backs ranked 3 through 12 all have question marks. That leaves us with two consensus running backs, Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. Those two will be the first two players off the board in 98% of leagues. There’s no justification needed to draft either of these guys in the first round because they’re so far and beyond better than the next best running back. I’m going to point out some concerns over the next running backs with their average draft position (ADP) within the first two rounds.
LeSean McCoy – Ever since the news about the suspension of Ezekiel Elliott, McCoy has moved up to the number three ranked running back. While McCoy provides lots of upside for the number three ranked back, he has some concerns heading into the 2017 season. McCoy plays for the dumpster fire that is the Buffalo Bills. The Bills offense will be managed by former Denver Broncos Coordinator, Rick Dennison. Dennison ranked in the middle of the pack in run-pass percentage last season with the Broncos, which is surprising considering they had a subpar quarterback for most of the season. It will be interesting to see how much Dennison decides to utilize McCoy in his offense that no longer has a receiver that could stretch the field. That is because the Bills also just traded away their number one receiver and cornerback, so it’s anyone’s guess what direction this team is heading and if they even are looking to win this season. The Bills could find themselves out of several games early and often this season, and that doesn’t bode well for McCoy’s touch numbers.
Verdict: McCoy is a talented back that has finished in the top three of running back scoring in three of the last four seasons. His talent isn’t questioned, it’s the team that surrounds him that makes me skeptical of using a top 3 or even 5 pick on him with the direction of the organization. I’d be willing to pick him as early as 8th overall.
Melvin Gordon – Like McCoy, Melvin Gordon provides a good deal of upside, which is why I have him ranked as my number four running back. He had a nice bounce back season after a terrible rookie year in 2015. With Anthony Lynn as the new head coach, Gordon could be a lock to have his first 1,000-yard season. The biggest flaws with Melvin Gordon is his offensive line. Pro Football Focus ranked the Los Angeles Chargers as the 21st ranked offensive line in the league. The Chargers did their best to upgrade their offensive line by adding Russell Okung and Dan Feeney but whether or not they have a good year remains to be seen. Gordon is also coming off of a knee injury that cut his season short last season. He didn’t have surgery in the offseason, so that’s a good sign, but owners who are investing a top 10 pick would want to keep an eye on that knee this preseason.
Verdict: Gordon plays for a Charger offense that has plenty of weapons to keep the defense honest, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Gordon has a breakout season. He relied heavily on touchdowns last season so if his TD numbers don’t translate into this season he could see a drop in points. There’s no other running back on the Chargers roster that will take away from Gordon’s reps, and Anthony Lynn has proven to feed his running backs the ball with 14 consecutive 1,000-yard rushers in his career. I can justify taking Gordon as the 10th pick.
Devonta Freeman – Freeman has been a pleasant surprise over the past two seasons. He’s a dual threat running back that plays for the most dangerous offense in the NFL. However, there are reasons to be wary of drafting him in the top ten. Freeman’s touches last year were down from his 2015 breakout season. Last year Freeman had 58 fewer touches than he did in 2015, that is due in large part to Tevin Coleman. Also, Atlanta lost their offensive guru Kyle Shanahan and replaced him with Steve Sarkisian. There’s no telling how Sarkisian will run this high powered offense, but that could mean that Freeman loses some pass catching opportunities, which hurts his value.
Verdict: Freeman is the more talented back out of the two in Atlanta. He received most of the goal line work last season and didn’t have to worry about eight men in the box with Matt Ryan under center. Freeman is a borderline top 12 pick in my opinion as the wide receivers available at the end of the first round are too consistent to pass up. He’s missed time this preseason due to concussion concerns so that would be a situation to monitor moving forward.
DeMarco Murray – Murray had a nice bounce back season last year after an atrocious season with the Eagles. Despite being 29, he didn’t falter with production, totaling over 1,500 total yards last season. The concern here is with his role in the team moving forward. We saw rookie running back Derrick Henry steal some of his touches last year, and he was producing with the opportunities. Henry had 123 touches and scored five times last season. Being that it’s Henry’s second year in the offense, you can expect to see him eat into Murray’s production particularly in the second half of the season. Aside from Henry’s presence, the Titans also revamped their passing game by drafting Corey Davis and signing Eric Decker in free agency. Mariota has plenty of offensive weapons now with Davis, Decker, Delanie Walker, and Rishard Matthews, so it’s fair to question Murray’s workload this season.
Verdict: Murray will still be the featured back in this backfield, but barring injury or a breakout season by Henry who knows what his workload could look like. The Titans like to run the ball, but with a revamped passing game perhaps the offense becomes more balanced this season. Nonetheless, Murray is still a solid option if you’re drafting at the later part of your draft. I see Murray as a top 14 pick in non-PPR format.
Ezekiel Elliott – This is pretty clear, the suspension really killed his ADP. After being hit with a six-game suspension, Elliott went from number 3 overall to a borderline second rounder, in my opinion. There’s no doubt about Elliott’s talent and supporting cast, but the fact that he’s going to miss half of the fantasy season puts teams who draft him in a difficult spot.
Verdict: Elliott was one of the few running backs that could look to improve off of a stellar rookie season. The suspension is certainly something that should weigh down his value, but if you do decide to take him, make sure you’re drafting Darren McFadden as a handcuff in the later rounds. There are too many solid wide receivers to justify taking Elliott in the first or even early second round. I see Elliot drafted within the top 24 picks, but even that could be a reach. There’s no doubt that he has the talent to be a top 5 back. But risking half of the fantasy season on one player is a risk too steep for me to get over. Elliott would need to fall dramatically for me to own him this season.
These next few guys I’m going to bunch into one category because they all fall under the same tree.
Jay Ajayi, Jordan Howard, Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, and Isaiah Crowell – All these running backs round out the top 12 of the running back position. What do all these backs have in common? They all play for bad teams. Every one of these running backs plays for a team that has quarterback questions. This leads to more men in the box and less running lanes. It also will be difficult for running backs to get consistent touches on a weekly basis when their team projected always to be trailing. It isn’t as if these running backs are multi dimensional. For the exception of Gurley and Crowell, none of these backs caught more than 40 passes last season so, for the most part, they are dependent on rushing yards and touchdowns.
Verdict: We know that each of these running backs possesses high upside. We saw Ajayi’s 200-yard weeks, Howard and Crowell had nice seasons last year for terrible teams, Gurley was an absolute stud two years ago, and Fournette is considered the best running back out of this rookie class. They just aren’t as safe as the wide receivers available in their draft range.
If I’d have to go with two of these backs, I’d say my favorite would be Gurley and Crowell. Gurley had a terrible follow-up to his rookie season, but now with new head coach Sean McVay and an upgraded offensive line, it’ll be interesting to see how McVay incorporates Gurley into the offense. The Rams offense added a few offensive weapons in Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins so if Jared Goff can make a leap perhaps Gurley can have another big season. Isaiah Crowell had a sneaky good season last year, which is why I like him. I’ve seen Crowell fall on draft boards because he plays for the Browns but here’s the thing. The Browns actually come into the season with the number 2 ranked offensive line according to PFF.com. Although the Browns are likely to be terrible yet again, Crowell has established himself as the feature back in Cleveland over Duke Johnson and should score the majority of the points that Clevland scores this season.
Recap:
The Running Back position is the most important position in fantasy football. This is a position where it’s difficult to find production when you miss on top players. This year is not easy just jamming in the top running back in your first two picks. Aside from the creme of the crop, the other top running backs have some issues that you should at least consider before investing your first pick on one of them. When you compare that to the depth of top wide receiver position, it’s tough to justify forcing a running back to your team in the early rounds. It really depends on where you draft and who’s available, so I’ll show you how I’d approach a draft based on the different draft slots available.
Live Draft
The picks below were taken from a draft that I participated in earlier this week where I picked 7th. I’ll add some input on each team’s picks through the first five rounds.
Team 1
1.01 – Le’Veon Bell (David Johnson)
2.12 – Dez Bryant
3.01 – Demaryius Thomas
4.12 – Larry Fitzgerald
5.01 -Jordan Reed
What sticks out to me is Bell over Johnson, but there really is no right or wrong answer here. Picking at the top of the draft is always difficult to find a solid RB 2. I can understand how this team went WR in three consecutive picks.
Team 2
1.02 – David Johnson
2.11 – Doug Baldwin
3.02 – Rob Gronkowski
4.11 – Danny Woodhead
5.02 – Jarvis Landry
Solid start. Again this shows that when you pick early in the draft, it’s hard to find a decent RB 2 in the first three rounds. I think this team made out okay by drafting Woodhead in the fourth round.
Team 3
1.03 – Antonio Brown (Julio Jones)
2.10 – Leonard Fournette
3.03 – DeAndre Hopkins
4.10 – Frank Gore
5.03 – Delanie Walker
This team was a prime example of drafting a player based on the need to fill every starting spot right away. Drafting Walker was a reach if I’ve ever seen one. Walker has an ADP of going in the 8th round and the fact that he got taken in the 5th shows this team panicked when they saw the TE position thinning out and drafted by need, not by value. Also, I can’t see drafting Hopkins over Pryor or Crowell, but maybe this team knows something I don’t.
Team 4
1.04 – Mike Evans (Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr.)
2.09 – Ezekiel Elliott (Dez Bryant)
3.04 – Terrelle Pryor
4.09 – Bilal Powell
5.04 – Mark Ingram
This team took the chance to draft Elliott. Elliott was drafted in the late second round, which is right around where I’d expect him to go. My issue with this is that he didn’t do that great of a job covering his grounds by drafting Ingram and Powell, both are backs that split time and don’t have lots of upside. Ingram? Maybe but that’s only at the end of the season if Peterson gets injured.
Team 5
1.05 – LeSean McCoy (Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr.)
2.08 – Brandin Cooks (Dez Bryant)
3.05 – Marshawn Lynch
4.08 – Golden Tate
5.05 – Devante Adams
Out of the first five teams, this is the team to beat right now. One thing that this team did that’s worth noting is that they skipped over three pretty good wide receivers (Jones, OBJ, & Green). This team was set on running back early and drafted McCoy. In this case, it worked out because of how low the receivers dropped, and the team was able to draft a good WR in the second round. Not a bad strategy when you consider how deep WR is.
Team 6
1.06 – Julio Jones
2.07 – Michael Thomas
3.06 – Isaiah Crowell
4.07 – Alshon Jeffery
5.06 – Greg Olsen
Solid start. Would be interesting to see where this team goes for their second running back slot.
Team 7 – My team
1.07 – Odell Beckham Jr.
2.06 – Todd Gurley
3.07 – Christian McCaffrey
4.06 – Aaron Rodgers
5.07 – Emmanuel Sanders
First off, I was thrilled that OBJ fell this far in the draft. This was a no brainer for me, and I still can’t fathom how this happened. The one thing I did here that I RARELY do is I drafted a QB. But to me drafting Rodgers in the fourth round was too good of a value to pass up. The decision was between Rodgers and Tate, and I felt that Rodgers production was far and away better than the other QBs than Tate was with the remaining WR. Hence the Sanders pick that followed.
Team 8
1.08 – Devonta Freeman (Melvin Gordon)
2.05 – Amari Cooper
3.08 – Dalvin Cook
4.05 – Martavis Bryant
5.08 – Julian Edelman
I felt Bryant was a reach in the early fourth round, only because you don’t know what role he’ll play with this offense that already has so many mouths to feed.
Team 9
1.09 – A.J. Green
2.04 – Lamar Miller (Dez Bryant or Todd Gurley)
3.09 – Carlos Hyde
4.04 – Kelvin Benjamin (Alshon Jeffery or Aaron Rodgers)
5.09 – Allen Robinson
This team has a solid balance of players who are going to see a lot of volume. I have Gurley and Bryant ranked over Miller, but I can understand why he decided to go with Miller over those two.
Team 10
1.10 – Melvin Gordon
2.03 – T. Y. Hilton
3.10 – Michael Crabtree
4.03 – Doug Martin (Alshon Jeffery)
5.10 – Kareem Hunt
My biggest issue here is drafting Hilton this early. With Luck’s timetable up in the air, you don’t know what type of production you’re going to get from Hilton Scott Tolzien behind center. Also, Doug Martin is suspended for the first four games.
Team 11
1.11 – Jordy Nelson
2.02 – DeMarco Murray
3.11 – Tom Brady
4.02 – Travis Kelce
5.11 – Jamison Crowder
This team jumped the gun on Tom Brady and Travis Kelce. Certainly two of the top players in their position but this puts the team under pressure to have a strong back end of the draft at essential positions.
Team 12
1.12 – Jordan Howard
2.01 – Jay Ajayi
3.12 – Ty Montgomery
4.01 – Keenan Allen
5.12 – Tyreek Hill
The triple running backs method. It didn’t seem to hurt this team as they were able to get some wideouts with high upside. Ironically I think the wideouts are safer than the running backs, though.