The main Sunday slate in DFS for Week 12 is going to be missing a lot of the elite receiving options considering the Chiefs and Chargers are on a bye and the Texans, Packers and Rams all play in prime time.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 – Wide Receivers
Despite four teams being on a bye, Week 6 still brings a loaded group of high-end wide receiver options. Not only that, but there are several cheaper players who could provide significant value.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 11 – Wide Receivers
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
Six teams are on a bye during Week 11, but none of them have as much of an impact on the wide receiver position for the main Sunday afternoon slate in DFS as the Packers, Chiefs, Rams, and Vikings all playing in prime time. There are still a lot of quality options, though, so let’s dig into the position to see which matchups stand out. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Michael Thomas vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,800
The Saints exploded for 51 points against the Bengals last week, so it’s no surprise that Thomas had a big game. He caught all eight of the targets thrown his way for 70 yards and two touchdowns. After scoring five touchdowns all last season, he already has seven through his first nine games. He also has an insane 89.7 percent catch rate, leaving him just 50 yards shy of reaching 1,000 yards for the third straight year.
The Eagles have only allowed 12 passing touchdowns this season, but they have allowed the 10th-most passing yards per game (266). Their secondary also received a significant blow when cornerback Ronald Darby was lost to a torn ACL. With the Saints firing on all cylinders offensively, they could put up plenty of points in a hurry in this contest. Thomas is tied for the league lead with 78 receptions, so expect him to have another great performance.
Julio Jones vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $8,500
There has never been any question about Jones’ workload with his 102 targets tied for the third-most in the league. He’s already posted 1,040 receiving yards, marking his fifth straight season with at least 1,000 yards. The only issue has been his incredible inability to score touchdowns. However, he finally found the end zone in Week 9, then followed that up with another score last week against the Browns.
If you’re just looking at the opponent, this does not stand out as a great matchup for Jones. The Cowboys have a good pass defense and have only allowed 12 touchdown receptions all season. However, Jones has such a heavy volume of passes thrown his way that it’s hard to slow him down. If he can continue to find his way into the end zone, the sky is the limit in terms of his value. Even if he doesn’t again Sunday, he still has a high enough floor to be worth considering in cash contests.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $8,500
DraftKings = $8,400
It’s been a frustrating season for Beckham and the Giants offense. He’s still put up some big yardage totals, but he entered Week 10 with just two touchdown receptions. A matchup against the 49ers turned out to be just what the doctored ordered with the Giants scoring 27 points and Beckham hauling in two scores. Even though he finished with four receptions for 73 yards, his day actually could have been even better since he had 11 targets.
A surprising as this may be, Beckham actually has as many targets as Jones does. Having Eli Manning as his quarterback is going to continue to limit his upside, but that doesn’t mean you should shy away from him at this lofty price. The Bucs have been horrible against the pass, allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (292) and the most passing touchdowns (23). As long as the Giants offensive line can keep Manning upright, he should look Beckham’s way enough to make him a safe option.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Alshon Jeffery vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $6,300
Jeffery had a quiet performance against the Cowboys last week with only four catches for 48 yards. On the bright side, he received eight targets and was on the field for 97 percent of their offensive snaps. New wide receiver Golden Tate wasn’t involved much in his debut with the team, only appearing on the field for 29 percent of their snaps. That number seems likely to rise as he gets more familiar with their offense, but it’s clear that Jeffery is still their top option at the position moving forward.
Tight end Zach Ertz will eat into Jeffery’s production from time to time, but Jeffery has four touchdowns in just six games and has a career-high 63.5 percent catch rate. The Eagles offense has had its struggles, but they will likely have to throw a lot Sunday to keep up with the Saints. That could lead to a banner performance from Jeffery since the Saints allow the second-most passing yards per game (296).
Kenny Golladay vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Ford Field
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $5,800
The trade of Tate to the Eagles opens up an even larger role for Golladay. He was great in Week 10 against the Bears, catching 6 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. Marvin Jones (knee) also had to depart that game early, which led Golladay to receive a season-high 13 targets. Golladay has now been on the field for 90 percent of the Lions offensive snaps his season, which is tops among their skill position players.
Jones is luckily just dealing with a bone bruise in his knee, but his status is still in question for this contest against the Panthers. If he can’t play, Golladay is going to be extremely busy. Even if Jones is able to take the field, Golladay is going to be heavily involved due to Tate no longer being in town. The Panthers have struggled in the secondary, allowing the second-most touchdown passes through the air (22).
Larry Fitzgerald vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $5,600
The first two games with Byron Leftwich as the Cardinals offensive coordinator has provided immediate dividends for Fitzgerald. After receiving 41 targets across seven games with Mike McCoy at the helm of their offense, Fitzgerald has received 22 targets over two games since. He’s made the most of his added opportunities, posting 14 receptions, 152 yards, and a touchdown.
Another encouraging sign for the Fitzgerald is that he was on the field for at least 96 percent of the Cardinals offensive snaps in the two weeks under Leftwich. He had logged no more than 87 percent of their offensive snaps in three of his previous four contests. The Raiders get virtually no pressure on opposing quarterbacks and have allowed 21 passing touchdowns, potentially setting up Fitzgerald for a big game.
Tre’Quan Smith vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $4,000
With the Saints putting up 51 points last week, it is surprising that Smith wasn’t even targeted once in that contest. He was on the field for 68 percent of their offensive snaps, which was more than any other wide receiver, including Michael Thomas (61 percent). Don’t expect him to out snap Thomas moving forward, but last week illustrates the potential that Smith could have if the Saints decided to throw more passes his way.
The Saints just signed Brandon Marshall to provide some depth at wide receiver, but Smith should still be their second best option at the position moving forward. His lack of targets is concerning, which is why you should only consider him in tournament play. However, if this game turns into a shootout, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Smith provide value at this dirt cheap price.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Mike Evans vs. New York Giants
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $7,300
It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Evans. He received 10 targets in Week 9, but only caught one pass for 16 yards. He managed to post 51 yards in Week 10 but caught only three of six targets. This brief rough stretch is especially surprising considering how well he played with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback to start the year. Don’t expect him to struggle like this for the remainder of the season, but this isn’t a good opportunity for him to turn things around against the Giants. They’ve dealt away a couple of their key defenders, but they still have cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who has helped them allow just 12 passing touchdowns this season. At this lofty price, Evans is awfully risky.
Tyrell Williams vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $4,800
After four touchdowns across his previous three games, Williams was finally shut out of the end zone by the Raiders in Week 10. He’s only received 36 targets all season, so a lot of his value depends on him scoring touchdowns. With Keenan Allen the top option at wide receiver for the Chargers and Melvin Gordon thriving in the backfield, don’t expect Williams to receive a significant jump in targets anytime soon, either.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 – Wide Receivers
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
The Giants, Chiefs, and Packers all won’t be part of the main slate for DFS in Week 6, but there are still plenty of great wide receiver options to help you bring home some money. Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players to target, and some to possibly avoid, as you create your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
A.J. Green vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,000
Green topped 100 receiving yards for the first time this season during Week 5, hauling in six of 10 targets for 112 yards. Although his yardage totals haven’t always been great, Green has received at least eight targets in all five contests. This is nothing new for Green considering he has never received fewer than 100 targets in a season during his career. That’s especially impressive since he has played 13 or fewer games in a season twice.
The Bengals offense has been much improved, which has helped Green record five touchdowns. While he only had 12 total touchdowns the last two seasons, Green had recorded at least 10 scores in three of the previous four campaigns before that stretch. The Steelers have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (296) and are tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed (13), leaving Green with a high floor Sunday.
Adam Thielen vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel – $8,600
DraftKings = $8,500
Simply put, Thielen is a target machine. His 66 targets are tied for the league lead with Antonio Brown and his 47 receptions are more than any other player. The problem for Thielen last year was that he received plenty of passes thrown his way, but he was only able to convert them into three touchdowns. He’s already matched that mark this season to go along with at least 105 yards in each contest.
There are few sure things in DFS, but Thielen has one of the highest floors of any receiver in the league. The Vikings offense has been explosive with Kirk Cousins at the helm, resulting in them attempting the third-most passes in the league. The Vikings might get up big in this game against the inferior Cardinals, but Thielen will still get plenty of opportunities to provide value.
Julio Jones vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $8,500
DraftKings = $7,900
The drought continues for Jones. He has failed to find the end zone this season and has scored just three touchdowns total since the start of the 2017 season. He had his worst performance of the year in Week 5, catching five of nine targets for 62 yards. On the bright side, it was the fourth time this season that Jones has received at least nine targets.
Jones’ lack of touchdowns might scare some people away from using him at this price. However, this is a stellar matchup against the Bucs. They have allowed the most passing yards per game (358) and are tied with the Steelers for the most touchdown passes allowed (13) despite only playing four games. When these two teams met in Atlanta last year, Jones exploded for 12 catches on 15 targets for 253 yards and two touchdowns. This is as good an opportunity as any for Jones to find the end zone.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Tyler Boyd vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $6,000
Boyd was flying high heading into Week 5 against the Dolphins having posted at least 91 receiving yards in three straight games. He was heavily involved with seven targets, but he was only able to turn that into four catches for 44 yards. He also failed to score a touchdown for the second straight week against a Dolphins defense that has only allowed six scores through the air all season.
Although his results last week were a disappointment, it was encouraging to see him receive so many targets. He and Green are actually tied for the team lead with 43 targets each. After them, the next two players with the most targets are both injured in Giovani Bernard (21) and Tyler Eifert (19). With how poorly the Steelers defense has played against the pass this season, there is plenty of room for both Green and Boyd to be productive Sunday.
Mohamed Sanu vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $4,800
The sexy names in the Falcons wide receiver corp are Jones and emerging rookie Calvin Ridley. While they might grab all the headlines, don’t sleep on Sanu. He had another big game last week against the Steelers with 73 yards and a touchdown on four receptions. It marked the second time in the last three weeks that Sanu found the end zone and the fourth time in five games that he has received at least six targets.
Sanu has been on the field for 81% of the Falcons offensive plays this season, which is second-highest on the team only to tight end Austin Hooper. By comparison, Ridley has only been on the field 61% of the time. Ridley might have the highest touchdown upside and Jones may receive more targets, but Sanu can provide value in his own right. Considering how cheap he is on both sites, he could be a great option against the porous Bucs secondary.
Keke Coutee vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $5,700
DraftKings = $4,600
The Texans have two excellent wide receivers in DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Both are having great seasons with quarterback Deshaun Watson back from a torn ACL. Another player who is starting to emerge for the Texans is Coutee, who missed the first three games due to a hamstring injury. He debuted in style Week 4 against the Colts, catching 11 of 15 targets for 109 yards. He followed that up with six catches on seven targets for 51 yards and a touchdown Week 5.
Can Coutee keep up this kind of production playing alongside two other great receivers? Well, working in his favor is the fact that the Texans run a lot of three-receiver sets. That has resulted in Coutee being on the field for 82% of the teams offensive plays since his return. His upside isn’t nearly as high as that of Hopkins or Fuller, but it doesn’t have to be for him to be a viable option in tournament play at this price.
Chester Rogers vs. New York Jets
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $5,700
DraftKings = $4,500
The Colts were extremely thin on pass-catching options for Week 5 with both T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle out due to injury. Rogers was heavily involved, as a result, catching eight of 11 targets for 66 yards. Doyle was out for Week 4, too, and Hilton was also injured during that game, which helped Rogers catch eight of 11 targets for 85 yards.
Injuries will be a problem for the Colts again for Week 6 with both Hilton and Doyle unlikely to play. Eric Ebron has helped make up for the loss of Doyle, but the Colts wide receiver trio of Rogers, Ryan Grant, and Zach Pascal are left to fill the significant void created by Hilton’s absence. Rogers hasn’t shown to have big-play upside, but 22 targets across two games in certainly encouraging for his potential output Sunday.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Allen Robinson vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,700
The Bears badly needed to add talent at wide receiver during the offseason, resulting in Robinson being their prized acquisition. He posted 10 catches on 14 targets in Week 2, but only accumulated 83 yards. He has yet to top 100 receiving yards in a game this season and has finished with 61 or fewer receiving yards in three of four contests. The Dolphins have done a great job keeping opposing receivers out of the end zone, leaving Robinson with little upside.
Corey Davis vs. Baltimore Ravens
Stadium – Nissan Stadium
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $5,800
Davis followed up his monster performance Week 4 against the Eagles with just four catches on six targets for 49 yards last week against the Bills. Considering he has 62 receiving yards or fewer in four of five games, that game against the Eagles is more of an outlier than anything else. The Ravens have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (215), so don’t expect Davis to be overly productive.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 – Wide Receivers
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Early bird special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
There were 20 wide receivers who came away with at least 100 receiving yards in Week 4, including four that had over 160 yards. There are plenty of great matchups in Week 5 to exploit, as well. Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players to target, and some to possibly avoid, as you create your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Julio Jones vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,500
After scoring a measly three touchdowns in 2017, Jones has failed to reach the end zone across the first four games this year. The Falcons have only targeted Jones three times inside the red zone, which equates to 13.6% of their opportunities. To put that into perspective, other star receivers around the league who have received a higher percentage include Jarvis Landry (60%), Davante Adams (44.4%) and A.J. Green (36%).
The good news is that Jones has already amassed 29 receptions for 502 yards. His 46 targets are tied for fourth-most in the league. This should be a high-scoring game between two teams that have potent offenses and porous defenses. Jones might continue to struggle to score touchdowns, but with all the targets he receives, he still has a high floor in DFS.
Adam Thielen vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $8,300
DraftKings = $7,700
Like Jones, Thielen struggled to find the end zone last year with only four scores despite hauling in 91 passes. Unlike Jones, Thielen hasn’t had similar issues this season, recording two touchdowns already. Although the Vikings have another extremely talented wide receiver in Stefon Diggs, it hasn’t stopped Thielen from leading the league with 56 targets. He hasn’t let those opportunities go to waste, posting 40 receptions for 473 yards.
Diggs might have the higher touchdown upside, but there is plenty of room within this offense for both players to be extremely productive every week. If anything, having the two of them makes it so opposing defenses can’t key in on either one of them. The Eagles defense has been stout against the run, but they are vulnerable in the passing game. Start Thielen with confidence.
JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,500
Smith-Schuster is coming off of his quietest performance of the season in Week 4, catching four passes for 60 yards. On a positive note, he did receive 11 targets in that contest and has received at least eight targets in all four games. His 49 total targets rank third in the league behind Thielen and his own teammate, Antonio Brown. Smith-Schuster’s 416 receiving yards also rank eighth, significantly ahead of Brown’s 272 yards.
Having Brown playing alongside him certainly takes some of the pressure off of Smith-Schuster. The Steelers are also still without the services of Le’Veon Bell, who catches a ton of passes out of the backfield. Based on how poorly the Steelers defense has played, they’ve had to throw the ball a lot to try and keep pace offensively. Scoring should be abundant in this contest, leaving Smith-Schuster with significant upside.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Tyler Boyd vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $5,700
The Bengals offense has been firing on all cylinders this season, scoring at least 34 points in three of four games. Andy Dalton has been a different quarterback, averaging 299.3 passing yards per game compared to 207.5 passing yards per game in 2017. One of the main beneficiaries of their offensive explosion has been Boyd, who has at least 91 receiving yards in three straight games. He received a staggering 15 targets in Week 4, hauling in 11 of them for 100 yards.
With defenses having to worry about A.J. Green, Boyd has shown he can be a viable secondary receiver. He should be even more heavily involved going forward after the Bengals lost tight end Tyler Eifert for the season due to an ankle injury. Eifert had 15 receptions on 19 targets so far this year. The Dolphins have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game (285) heading into this matchup, making Boyd an excellent play at this reasonable price.
John Brown vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $5,600
Speaking of offenses who have been far more productive this season, the Ravens are averaging 30.8 points per contest. Injuries contributed to Brown appearing in only 10 games last year and he posted a dismal 38.2% catch rate when he was on the field. The Ravens added Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead to their wide receiver corps this year, but the emergence of Brown might be the biggest reason for their improved scoring output. His 50% catch rate still isn’t great, but his average of 22.5 yards per reception has helped him total 338 yards and three touchdowns.
Week 5 brings a matchup against a Browns team that has made some improvements on defense but was destroyed by Derek Carr last week for 437 yards and four touchdowns. Michael Crabtree leads the team with 36 targets, but he doesn’t have nearly the explosive upside that Brown does, averaging 10.2 yards per reception. If you plan to utilize a Ravens stack with Flacco as your quarterback, Brown is the top choice to pair with him in tournament play.
Dede Westbrook vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $4,700
Westbrook hasn’t had the most consistent of starts. He has posted 51 receiving yards or fewer in two of four games, but he recorded at least 82 yards in both of the other two contests. A lot of that falls on the shoulders of Blake Bortles, who threw for fewer than 180 yards in both of Westbrook’s unproductive games. The good news for Westbrook is that he leads the team with 28 targets.
The Jaguars have a great defense, but they will be tested this week by the Chiefs. If they can’t hold down Patrick Mahomes and company, the Jaguars might be forced to throw the ball more than usual. The loss of Leonard Fournette to a hamstring injury won’t help their running game, either. Westbrook doesn’t carry a lot of touchdown potential, but he should get enough passes thrown his way to be a viable option for your entry.
Jordy Nelson vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $5,600
DraftKings = $4,500
Nelson’s first two games as a Raider did not go well, catching five of eight targets for 53 yards. He had his first big performance with his new team in Week 3, catching six passes for 173 yards and a touchdown. That yardage total was certainly a fluke and he came back down to Earth with 48 yards in Week 4. However, he chipped in another touchdown reception and received eight targets for the second time in as many weeks.
Amari Cooper is clearly the top wide receiver for the Raiders, but he hasn’t exactly been reliable, either. One player who has emerged as a productive part of the passing game is tight end Jared Cook, who already has 370 receiving yards after finishing with 688 yards in all of 2017. The Chargers defense hasn’t lived up to expectations so far this year, allowing 10 touchdown passes through the first four weeks. Nelson is very much a boom-or-bust option, but he’s intriguing in tournament play at this cheap price.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Larry Fitzgerald vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,700
The normally reliable Fitzgerald hasn’t been immune to the Cardinals offensive struggles, posting only 15 receptions and 141 receiving yards through four games. His streak of three straight seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards is very much in doubt. To make matters worse, he’s currently battling a hamstring injury. Even if he does tough it out and play Sunday, he’ still someone to stay away from when crafting your entry.
Devin Funchess vs. New York Giants
Stadium – Bank of America Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $5,200
Funchess emerged as the Panthers top wide receiver last year and is off to another solid start with 14 receptions and 185 yards through three games. The loss of tight end Greg Olsen to yet another foot injury has opened up even more opportunities for Funchess to be productive. Unfortunately for Funchess, he’ll be matched up against standout cornerback Janoris Jenkins on Sunday, who helped limit Saints star receiver Michael Thomas to four catches and 47 yards last week.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 2 – Wide Receivers
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Early bird special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
The first week of the NFL season brought some prolific performances from a few of the top wide receivers around the league. There are plenty of great matchups to take advantage of for Week 2, as well. Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players to target or avoid as you create your DFS entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Antonio Brown vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $8,900
DraftKings = $8,800
The weather conditions were less than ideal for the Steelers passing game in Week 1, but Brown still had an excellent performance. He caught nine of 16 targets for 93 yards and a touchdown. The game did include an entire overtime period, but Brown received at least 10 targets in 11 of the 14 games he played last year, as well.
There are few matchups that don’t lean in Brown’s favor, but this is one that certainly sticks out as an opportunity for him to dominate. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has historically performed better at home, which has given Brown a boost when they play there. In seven games at Heinz Field last year, Brown averaged 119.1 receiving yards and scored six touchdowns. He averaged 99.9 yards and scored three touchdowns across seven games on the road. The Chiefs secondary allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 424 yards last week, leaving Brown with tremendous upside.
Julio Jones vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $8,500
DraftKings = $8,400
Jones put on a show against the defending Super Bowl champs in Week 1, catching 10 of 19 targets for 169 yards. He received three targets inside the red zone, but as has been the case in his career, Jones finished yet another game without a score. He scored nine touchdowns over the last two seasons, combined, and has only scored double-digit touchdowns in a year one time in his career.
There is no questioning that Jones is one of the best wide receivers in the league. The only problem has been his inability to reach the end zone. With that being said, he’s a target monster and has no problem racking up yardage. He has received at least 129 targets and recorded at least 1,409 receiving yards in four straight seasons. Even if he doesn’t reach the end zone again Sunday, his role in the offense gives him a high floor that is valuable in cash contests.
Keenan Allen vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,800
Allen was one of the main beneficiaries of the Chargers having to play catch up with the Chiefs, catching eight of 11 targets for 108 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers have quality depth at wide receiver and brought back Antonio Gates to fill their hole at tight end, but Allen is clearly the focal point of their passing attack. Allen received at least 10 targets in a game nine times last year and finished the season recording at least 100 yards in five of his final seven contests.
The Bills were awful in their blowout loss to the Ravens in Week 1 and while they struggled across the board, they allowed Joe Flacco to throw three touchdown passes after he failed to toss more than two in any game last year. There is a chance the Chargers could storm out to an early lead and run the ball more in the second half, but Allen should still see plenty of passes thrown his way.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Emmanuel Sanders vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $6,200
Sanders entered 2017 having received at least 136 targets and posting at least 1,032 yards in three straight seasons. However, he dealt with injuries and poor quarterback play last year, which resulted in him finishing with 555 yards over 12 games. His 51.1% catch rate and 11.8 yards per reception were both his lowest marks since he was still with the Steelers in 2013.
The addition of Case Keenum immediately paid dividends for Sanders in Week 1 as he hauled in 10 of 11 targets for 135 yards and a touchdown. It did come against a Seahawks defense that is a shell of its former self, but he’ll get another favorable matchup Sunday against a Raiders defense that suffered a tough blow when Khalil Mack was traded to the Bears. He might not be able to replicate his performance from last week, but Sanders doesn’t have to in order to still be able to provide value at this price.
Josh Gordon vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $5,800
Gordon didn’t start Week 1 after missing part of training camp and was supposed to be on a limited snap count. The latter didn’t come to fruition as he was on the field for 69 of the Browns 89 offensive plays. He only caught one of three targets, but it resulted in a 17-yard touchdown.
Gordon is listed as a starter for Week 2 and should be on the field plenty in this game. He has tremendous talent, but off-the-field issues have certainly put a damper on his career. The Browns may be forced to throw a lot to keep up with the Saints high-powered offense, which could lead to a big performance from Gordon.
Nelson Agholor vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $6,100
Agholor had a weird first game of the season. He entered Week 1 as the Eagles top wide receiver with Alshon Jeffery out due to injury and certainly saw plenty of passes thrown his way, grabbing eight of 10 targets. However, he finished with just 33 yards.
Jeffery will be sidelined again in Week 2, leaving Agholor to likely get the lion’s share of the targets out of the Eagles wide receiver group. Tight end Zach Ertz will likely be heavily involved, as well, but Agholor still stands out as a great option against a Buccaneers defense that allowed Drew Brees to throw for 429 yards in Week 1.
Kenny Golladay vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $5,700
DraftKings = $4,800
The Lions suffered one of the uglier losses of Week 1 on Monday against the Jets. Matthew Stafford had a particularly poor performance, throwing four interceptions compared to just one touchdown. The good news was they were forced to throw a lot because of the lopsided score, which helped Golladay amass seven receptions and 114 yards on 12 targets.
The Lions have an impressive wide receiver trio of Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr., and Golden Tate. While that might limit their production for some teams, it’s not a big concern for the Lions because they use a lot of three-receiver sets and don’t run the ball a ton. They also don’t really have any quality pass-catching options at tight end after Eric Ebron departed for the Colts. Don’t be surprised if the Lions defense forces their offense to try and play from behind in this game, too, which makes Golladay an intriguing option in tournament play.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Amari Cooper vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $6,900
DraftKings = $6,600
Cooper is one of the more frustrating receivers in fantasy. He has a lot of talent, but drops have limited his production. New head coach Jon Gruden said he wanted Cooper to be heavily involved in their offense this year, but he received just three targets in Week 1. While it did come against a very tough Rams secondary, it wasn’t the type of performance that instills a ton of confidence that this season will be any different for him. The Broncos secondary is formidable as well as they entered the season ranked 10th in the league by Pro Football Focus. There are a lot of great options at wide receiver with bye weeks having yet to start, so Cooper seems like an unnecessary risk to take.
Randall Cobb vs. Minnesota Vikings
Stadium – Lambeau Field
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,600
The injury to Aaron Rodgers last year really hurt Cobb’s numbers. He averaged a career-low 9.9 yards per catch and scored just four touchdowns despite playing in 15 games. He put up a vintage performance with Rodgers back at the helm for Week 1, catching nine of 12 targets for a whopping 142 yards and a touchdown. It was certainly encouraging for Cobb’s outlook for the season, but he’s not someone you want to consider this week with Rodgers battling a knee injury and also having to face the stingy Vikings defense.
NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments
*Chris Tierney – cstcst*
NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments
If you’re playing DFS this weekend don’t get fancy. Who is going to win the game and how? Answer these questions for yourself prior to constructing anything from a lineup perspective. Making more than one lineup? Alter who will win and how a bit and construct again, all while keeping a similar core lineup.
As Demarcus Robinson and Josh Hill demonstrated last weekend, roughly one obscure player POPS in each playoff game. It will likely take having one of these guys on your squad to take down a large GPP. Rostering players such as these are a true dart throw and the risk often outweighs the reward. My dart throws this week are Vance McDonald and Corey Davis. Both guys can make the big play and both have decent matchups. The Jags have a great defensive backfield and are also adept at rushing the passer. Quick hitting plays to the TE and RB are two ways to attach a defense like the Jaguars. Vance McDonald made some big plays for the 49ers last season and has seen his role expand down the stretch after being injured for much of the season. Corey Davis’s role continues to expand in the Titans passing game. He had a serviceable game last weekend and faces another spotty secondary this week in a game where his offense will likely have to throw the football.
Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
Atlanta (-3.5, 41) at Philadelphia
On paper, this sure looks like a 26-13 or thereabouts Falcons win. They are a veteran-led group with an improving defense who is accustomed to the pressures of the playoffs. Paper doesn’t mean much come kickoff. This will be an interesting game and it will be roaring in Philly. There are some interesting options here but this game isn’t where the majority of my focus will be this weekend.
DFS Chalk: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Zack Ertz, Devonta Freeman
DFS Value: Nick Foles, Nelson Agholor, Tevin Coleman, Mohamed Sanu, Jay Ajayi
Tennessee at New England (-14, 48)
This game has the opportunity to shoot out. Will the real New England defense please stand up? Statistically, they’ve been one of the worst units in the NFL this season but they’ve bowed their backs when it mattered most, allowing them to take the Division and home-field advantage yet again. Tennessee’s pass defense has been a sieve which shines a light upon his Greatness and his favorite Tight End. I think New England wins here, but I think it will be more difficult than many expect. The Titans gained some confidence last weekend and I expect their offense to have some success. I think there are a bunch of players worth rostering in this game. Remember, Belichick likes to neutralize one aspect of his opponent’s offense. That has to be the Tennessee running-game right? #gametheory – Tennessee passing attack is interesting to me in GPP situations. The return of Hogan should lighten the targets to Cooks here.
DFS Chalk: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, Delanie Walker, Derrick Henry
DFS Value: Corey Davis, Eric Decker, James White, Rex Burkhead, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Rishard Matthews
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-7, 41)
Sunday should be the fun day for this weekends slate and kicks off with a very interesting matchup in Pittsburgh. If Ryan Shazier were healthy, I’d think this was a slam dunk Steelers victory. As we all now, he sadly is not (keep on getting well Ryan!), and the Steelers run defense has not looked the same. They’ll copy the Bills blueprint and load the box with eight men. Will Nathan Hackett trust Blake Bortles here? Will they allow him to attack this Steelers defense down the field with Lee, Hurns and Westbrook? That is likely their plan and without something like it, they’ll be cleaning out their lockers early next week. The Steelers offense has the tough chore of the Jaguars defense. The Jags will slow the Steelers down some here, but the Jags offense has to apply pressure to this Steelers team. An upset here wouldn’t shock me but I think this is perhaps the most interesting matchup of the playoffs thus far and will be telling about the Steelers Championship hopes.
DFS Chalk: Big Ben, LeVeon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster
DFS Value: Vance McDonald, Dede Westbrook, Mercedes Lewis, Marqise Lee
New Orleans at Minnesota (-4.5, 46.5)
Like our Carolina | New Orleans call last week, this is the one with the best opportunity to shoot out and could be a thrilling final game to the weekend. The Vikings are legit, but so are the Saints. Both of these teams are formidable on both sides of the ball and both teams have offensive players who can score from anywhere on the field. I prefer Minnesota here but as anyone who follows the NFL knows, the Saints offense is capable of moving 85 yards in two or three plays at any time.
DFS Chalk: Case Keenum, Adam Thielen, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara
DFS Value: Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Kyle Rudolph, Ted Ginn, Brandon Coleman, Josh Hill
Top GPP Stacks:
1a: Case Keenum, Jerick Mckinnon, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas
2a: Tom Brady, James White, Rob Gronkowski, Corey Davis
Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations – Divisional Round
*Mike Barner*
Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations – Divisional Round
The NFL season is nearing a close as this will be the last weekend with at least four games on the schedule. There aren’t a lot of options to choose from for DFS, but there are several elite players still available. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
**QUARTERBACKS**
Tom Brady vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $7,000
FanDuel = $8,800
Not only is Brady one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but he looks to have the best matchup at the position this week. The Titans managed to pull off the upset on Wild Card Weekend by beating the Chiefs, who lost yet another home playoff game. During the regular season, the Titans allowed the most passing touchdowns (27) of any team still alive this weekend. Brady has been excellent over 13 games in the Divisional Round in his career, throwing for 3,700 yards and 26 touchdowns. Look for him to have another big performance Saturday.
Matt Ryan vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $5,700
FanDuel = $7,700
Ryan threw 38 touchdowns and only seven interceptions in 2016, but took a step backward this year with only 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He again put forth a lackluster performance Wild Card Weekend against the Rams, throwing for just 218 yards and one touchdown. He never threw more than two touchdown passes in a game this season and had 11 games with one or no touchdowns. The Eagles were in the middle-of-the-pack this season in terms of passing defense, allowing 24 passing touchdowns and an average of 227 net passing yards per game. Ryan doesn’t have a high ceiling, but with many of the quarterbacks facing tough defenses this week, he’s still someone to consider.
Marcus Mariota vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $5,900
FanDuel = $7,500
Mariota had an extremely disappointing regular season, throwing only 13 touchdown passes to along with a career-high 15 interceptions. He did have five rushing touchdowns, but that still wasn’t enough to make him a viable fantasy option. He benefited from a bizarre play against the Chiefs last week where he caught his own deflected pass for a touchdown, leaving him with two touchdown passes in the game. That marked only the fourth time this season he has thrown for more than one score in a game. The Patriots could get up big early in this game, which would likely lead to extra passing opportunities for Mariota. If you are looking for a cheap option at quarterback, that kind of volume puts Mariota into the discussion.
**RUNNING BACKS**
Le’Veon Bell vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Heinz Field
DraftKings = $9,600
FanDuel = $9,400
Bell had another stellar regular season for the Steelers, surpassing 1,800 total yards for the third time in the last four seasons. He also set career-highs in rushing attempts (321), receptions (85) and rushing touchdowns (9). The Jaguars allowed an average of 116.3 rushing yards per game in the regular season, which is the most of any of the teams still in the playoffs. The Jaguars defense, in general, is no walk in the park, but Bell’s elite talent still makes him worth paying up for this week.
Dion Lewis vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium- Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $6,600
FanDuel = $7,600
Patriots running backs have been a source of frustration for fantasy owners in recent years, but Lewis stepped up to be a valuable option over the second half of this season. Over the last six games, he rushed for 510 yards and three touchdowns. He also received some work in the passing game, hauling in 18 receptions for 128 yards and two touchdowns over that same stretch. Rex Burkhead (knee) still doesn’t appear to be fully healthy, so he could be limited if he is able to suit up for Saturday. Even if he does play, Lewis can still provide value for your entry.
Derrick Henry vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $7,300
FanDuel = $6,700
Henry shined filling in for DeMarco Murray (knee) last weekend, rushing for 156 yards and one touchdown while also catching two passes for 35 yards. He carried the ball 23 times, marking only the second time he received at least 20 carries in a game this season. Murray has already been ruled out for the Divisional Round, leaving Henry as the main back for another week. There is the risk that this could turn into a game of catchup for the Titans offense, which would force them to pass more than normal in the second half. However, they will likely run a lot early to try and keep the ball out of Brady’s hands. Henry might not be able to duplicate his excellent performance from last week, but volume alone makes him someone to target at this price.
**WIDE RECEIVERS**
Julio Jones vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $7,900
FanDuel = $8,800
Jones had a great season in terms of receiving yards but again struggled to reach the end zone, scoring only three touchdowns this season. Two of the three came in one game against the Buccaneers, making his total look even worse. He wasted no time in the playoffs though, hauling in nine catches for 94 yards and one touchdown last week against a tough Rams defense. Jones has stepped up his game when it matters the most, scoring six touchdowns in seven playoff games for his career. With Antonio Brown forced to play against cornerback Jalen Ramsey of the Jaguars, Jones might be the better option to pay up for this week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Heinz Field
DraftKings = $6,000
FanDuel = $7,000
Smith-Schuster finished the season strong, recording 21 catches for 332 yards and two touchdowns in the last three games. Two of those came with Brown injured, so Smith-Schuster may receive fewer targets with him expected to return this week. Even so, Brown has a tough matchup against Ramsey, so Smith-Schuster could still play a very big role in this game. The Steelers offense is much better at home as well, making Smith-Schuster someone to consider at this reasonable price.
Nelson Agholor vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $4,800
FanDuel = $6,400
Agholor had a breakout campaign this year, setting career-highs across the board. Much of that can be attributed to the stellar play of quarterback Carson Wentz (knee), who unfortunately is out for the rest of the season. Nick Foles is a competent backup, but his upside is limited at best. The good news is Agholor may have a favorable matchup as most of his receptions come in the middle of the field. Last week, the Falcons allowed Cooper Kupp, who also works over the middle of the field, to record eight receptions for 69 yards and one touchdown. If you want to take a chance on any of the Eagles wide receivers, Agholor might be the one to consider.
Eric Decker vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $3,800
FanDuel = $4,800
Decker only caught two of his five targets last week for 21 yards but salvaged his performance with a touchdown. The good news is that he received at least five targets for the sixth straight game. The Patriots did allow the third-most net passing yards per game (251) during the regular season, but a lot of that was due to teams trying to play catchup with the Patriots offense. It still counts the same for fantasy purposes, making Decker worth taking a chance on in tournament play considering how little he will cost you.
**TIGHT ENDS**
Rob Gronkowski vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $7,100
FanDuel = $8,500
The Titans struggled to defend tight ends during the regular season, allowing 853 receiving yards and five touchdowns to the position. They looked to be well on their way to getting lit up by Travis Kelce last week, who had 66 yards and one touchdown before leaving in the second quarter with a concussion. Gronkowski is the most expensive tight end by far this week, but he could feast in this game.
Delanie Walker vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $5,000
FanDuel = $6,200
Walker played well against the Chiefs in the first round, catching six of eight targets for 74 yards. He had another excellent season for the Titans as one of Mariota’s favorite targets, totaling at least 800 receiving yards for the fourth straight year. Like Decker, he could benefit from extra volume if the Titans get down big early and have to turn things over to their passing attack. If you don’t want to pay up for Gronkowski, Walker also has upside.
**DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS**
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Heinz Field
DraftKings = $3,800
FanDuel = $5,300
Blake Bortles did not play well against the Bills last week and actually had more rushing yards (88) than passing yards (87) in the game. He completed only 52.2% of his passes in the first playoff game of his career. He gets a much tougher opponent in the Steelers this week, who tied for the fourth-fewest net passing yards allowed per game (201) during the regular season. They not only held teams to 20 passing touchdowns but were also able to generate 16 interceptions. This could be an ugly performance from Bortles, making the Steelers defense an excellent option for your entry.
Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
DraftKings = $2,900
FanDuel = $4,600
The Vikings defense was excellent this season, allowing the second-fewest net passing yards per game (192) and the second-fewest rushing yards per game (83.6) in the league. It’s not easy picking against quarterback Drew Brees in the playoffs, but the Vikings limited him and the Saints offense to 19 points in Week 1 this season. The Steelers defense is certainly the safer bet this week, but the Vikings are also worth considering if you need to save a little money at defense.
NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football
*Chris Tierney – cstcst*
NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football
Welcome to Wild Card weekend! The stakes ramp up on Saturday as the 2018 edition of the NFL playoffs open in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon. There are some intriguing matchups this weekend which we’ll dive into each a little bit below. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
Tennessee at Kansas City (-8.5, 44)
Vegas Implied Final Score:
Kansas City 26
Tennessee 18
Key Injuries:
- Demarco Murray has been ruled out meaning Derrick Henry will get the majority of touches out of the backfield for the Titans.
- Albert Wilson was nicked up during the win over Denver but all signs point to him playing this week.
DFS Chalk: Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry, Alex Smith, Chiefs Defense
DFS Value: Eric Decker, Delanie Walker, Albert Wilson, Corey Davis, Marcus Mariota
Kansas City has gotten well over the past four weeks after a four-game losing streak nearly derailed their season. The teams they beat during this winning streak? The Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins and Broncos. One winning record out of the bunch. The Titans also stumble into the playoffs having lost three of their final four. Two of those came in Western time zones in hard fought games against Arizona and San Francisco, and they also dropped a close contest at home to the Rams before clinching this spot last week at home against Jacksonville. This matchup looks evenly matched on paper and while chilly, the forecasted 28-degree weather is not awful for offensive players.
Atlanta at Los Angeles (-6.5, 48.5)
Vegas Implied Final Score:
Los Angeles 27.5
Atlanta 22
Key Injuries:
- There are no injuries of significance to monitor in this game.
DFS Chalk: Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Rams Defense, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu
DFS Value: Sammy Watkins, DeVonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Austin Hooper
The biggest DFS decision of the week is whether to fade Todd Gurley, who finished the Regular Season as the top RB in Fantasy Football. He is very expensive across all formats this weekend and has certainly earned his price tag. He will feature on Saturday and his success or lack thereof will likely dictate GPP formats before Sunday games even kick off. Early projected ownership reports have a majority not paying the massive price tag. Personally, I’ve yet to decide which way I’ll end up going but this is likely the central decision to Wildcard DFS. Gurley would need to hit the 25-30 point mark to return GPP value, which while doable, is hardly something to bank on. The Rams defensive weakness is against the run game and I expect the Falcons to attempt to control the ball and play keep away from the Rams in this one. The Rams are legit and are a very dangerous offense capable of taking what the defense gives them.
Carolina at New Orleans (-7, 48.5)
Las Vegas Implied Score:
New Orleans 27.25
Carolina 21.25
Key Injuries:
- The Saints tight end situation is a bit murky, and while a complete potential flier, it might be worth paying attention to.
DFS Chalk: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Greg Olsen, Michael Thomas
DFS Value: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Ted Ginn, Mark Ingram
In our opinion, this sets up as the most interesting game on the weekend slate. These two teams met the first weekend in December with New Orleans prevailing by 10 points. In that game, the Saints ran for 148 yards and Brees threw for 269 yards with Kamara accounting for over 120 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns on 14 touches. In that game, the Panthers defense was visibly frustrated with their inability to wrap up Kamara. The Panthers will have one focus this week and that will be limiting and tackling the Saints lightning bolt offensive weapon. That could open the rest of the field for Brees and his wideouts, which sure seems like a good GPP route. Of course, the Panthers are a talented team very capable of winning and moving on here. Cam is scrambling once again, which makes him an elite option. While the Panthers are lacking at the WR position, Christian McCaffery and a healthy Greg Olsen make up for it. This game is a coin flip and brings plenty of fantasy options with perhaps the best chance of ‘shooting out’.
Buffalo at Jacksonville (-9, 39.5)
Las Vegas Implied Score:
Jacksonville 23.80
Buffalo 16.30
DFS Chalk: LeSean McCoy (if healthy), Leonard Fournette, Jags defense
DFS Value: Kellan Cole, Blake Bortles, Dede Westbrook
LeSean McCoy is likely to give it a go on his bum ankle, and without his presence, the Bills are a tremendous longshot to even threaten the Jaguars in this spot. Many are down on the Jags after a rough finish that saw them drop two in a row to end the season. The Jags are an interesting team heading into the postseason and they do two things well that win Championships. They have the best talent on defense in the AFC and can run the football. The game script here should allow Fournette and the Jags defense to shine all while awarding a home fan base that hasn’t seen a home playoff game in a decade. On paper, the Jags sure look like a team that no one wants to host in the Divisional Round.
OVERALL:
Top DFS Chalk Selections: Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville, Todd Gurley, RB, LA Rams, Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City
Top GPP / Value Selections: Christian McCaffery, RB, Carolina, Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta, Austin Hooper, TE, Atlanta, Eric Decker, WR, Tennessee
Top GPP Contrarian Stack: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Greg Olsen
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17
* Cesar Becerra *
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17
As I prefaced the article last week, the final two weeks of the NFL season are often the toughest to digest from a DFS perspective. Last week we didn’t see any teams rest any of their star players, but this week we have an entirely different scenario. We’ve already received reports that the Steelers, Rams, Eagles, Chiefs, and potentially the Vikings and Jaguars are all resting their starters.
We have a few teams like the Vikings, Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Seahawks, Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Chargers, Titans, and Bills all still fighting for either their playoff lives of their playoff positioning. Here is a thorough look at what the Week 17 playoff scenarios look like.
Vegas
As you’d expect with all the late news about teams sitting their star players we’ve seen a lot of movement within the Vegas lines. The largest line movement of the week was a 10 point swing with the 49ers going from +6.5 underdogs to a -3.5 favorite. The following are the biggest shifts in the Vegas lines Browns (+14.5 to 7), Colts ( +o to -5.5), Cowboys (+1 to -3), Seahawks (-7.5 to -10), and Jags (+5 to +3).
Despite the line movements, there are still seven teams that are more than a touchdown favorite, the Patriots (-16.5), Vikings (-13), Seahawks (-10), Ravens (-10), Chargers (-7.5), Steelers & Saints (-7). Most of these teams also sit with the highest implied team total starting with the Patriots (30). Followed by Saints (28.25), Vikings (26.25), Ravens (25), Lions (24.74), Chargers (24.75), Falcons (24.5), Seahawks (24.25), and 49ers (23.25).
There aren’t many games with incredibly high over/under with only two games sitting with a game total over 45, (NO @ TB 49.5) and (ATL @ CAR 45). There are 8 games (CIN @ BAL 40), (CHI @ MIN 39.5), (WAS @ NYG 39.5), (DAL @ PHI 39), (ARI @ SEA 38.5), (KC @ DEN 38.5), (CLE @ PIT 36.5) with game totals of 40 points or less, which leaves game stacks hard to come by for this slate.
This data was taken as of Friday afternoon, but as always, you should always check back at Vegas Insiders on Sunday morning.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson (DK $6,900) – Wilson might be the safest play at quarterback this week, and unfortunately, he doesn’t come cheap as he is the highest priced quarterback on the slate. But with all these secondary players playing this week, there is a ton of value on this slate. Wilson checks the all the boxes you would ask for during week 17. He has a decent team total (24.25), is playing as a home favorite, and is playing for their playoff lives. He’s facing the Cardinals who rank 8th in aFPA, but Wilson has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league following the Seahawks’ bye this season.
Jimmy Garoppolo (DK $6,700) – At this point, nothing else can be said other than Jimmy G is the GOAT. He is coming off of a week where he destroyed the best defense in the league by completing 70% of his passes. He has exceeded his value in 3 of his first 4 starts with the 49ers and now faces the Rams who will likely be rolling out second stringers. The matchup doesn’t look great on paper (Rams rank 5th in aFPA vs. QB), but the 49ers offense is white hot right now and if the Rams most of their starters, look for Garoppolo to have a field day to ride into the offseason with a perfect 7-0 record as a starter.
Patrick Mahomes (DK $4,700) – After the news broke that Andy Reid was going to rest Alex Smith in the final regular season game, Mahomes immediately became the best value play at the quarterback position. During the preseason, Mahomes completed 63% his 54 passes for 390 yards and four touchdowns and no interceptions. He also showed his athleticism that we saw so much in college with 8 rushes for 44 yards. I’ve noted in the past that the Broncos secondary is not as scary as they used to be (16th in aFPA) and have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns in the league (29). Mahomes will be the chalk for people paying down at QB
Cash:
R. Wilson, J. Garoppolo, C. Newton, P. Mahomes, K. Cousins, P. Mahomes
GPP:
(all of above), M. Stafford, P. Rivers, T. Taylor, M. Ryan, J. Brissett
Running backs
Alvin Kamara (DK $7,900) – With the news that Bell and Gurley are sitting the high tier at running back is very thin. I also expect Kareem Hunt (7,600), Leonard Fournette (7,100), and potentially Melvin Gordon (7,400) to all sit or be very limited so I will be staying away from them. That makes Kamara my favorite high priced back. Kamara has seen his price dip below 8k for the first time since in five weeks, which is appropriate given that he hasn’t met salary expectations in 3 of the last 4 games. This week the Saints still have an opportunity to clinch the division and are going up against the Bucs who rank 21st in aFPA against running backs. Kamara already destroyed the Bucs back in week 9 when he put up 32.2 DK points and totaled 2 touchdowns with 152 yards.
Kenyan Drake (DK $7,200) – I surprisingly haven’t heard many people talking up Drake this week, so it seems that I will be overexposed to the field this week. Drake has crushed value in 4 of his past 5 games and last week he only got 13 touches because of the game flow. This week the Dolphins are at small underdogs (+2.5) at home against the Bills. The Bills are dead last in aFPA, and Drake smashed them two weeks ago for 23.3 DK points and 113 total yards with one score. Drake is coming in as a sneaky tournament play. I’m not sure if I can play him in cash given the uber chalk Dion Lewis is $400 cheaper, but I like him as a pivot for tournaments.
Derrick Henry (DK $5,500) – Henry is finally expected to work as the Titans’ featured back with DeMarco Murray expected to either be limited or inactive with an MCL sprain. Football fans have long been waiting for the former Heisman trophy winner to get a full workload and he appears in line for that against the Jags who have a run funnel defense, ranking 25th in aFPA vs. running backs and 9th in aFPA vs. quarterbacks. Henry is the chalk for value running backs this week.
Cash:
A. Kamara, D. Lewis, M. Ingram, C. McCaffrey, D. Henry
GPP:
(all of above), K. Drake, E. Elliott, C. Hyde, A. Collins, J. Williams
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones (DK $8,200) – Julio comes in as the chalk this week at wide receiver. He’s averaging at least 7 targets the past 16 games and is going up against the Panthers who rank 30th in aFPA. In Julio’s first time facing the Panthers, he went off for 20.8 DK points with 6 catches for 118 yards. In a must-win game for the Falcons, look for Matt Ryan to force feed Julio like he did last week against the Saints. Julio will be the highest owned receiver, but I don’t mind pivoting to Keenan Allen against the Raiders (22nd aFPA vs. WR) if you’re willing to eat the ownership on Julio.
TY Hilton (DK $5,900) – Hilton is the other chalk wide receiver. He’s coming off of a 6 catch, 100-yard performance against the Ravens who are a top 10 team against defending wide receivers. Hilton now gets the Texans who are dead last in aFPA to wide receivers. Earlier this season Hilton torched the Texans for 37.5 DK points on 5 catches for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns. Hilton has 29 targets in the past 4 weeks of tough matchups (Baltimore (12), Broncos (7), Bills (4), & Jags (6). He is 48 yards shy of his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season, so I expect Brissett to feed him the ball.
Randall Cobb (DK $4,700) – With the reports that Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson will be out week 17, that makes Cobb the new number 1 target for Brett Hundley. Cobb has 29 targets in the past 3 weeks, and the supporting cast will feature Geronimo Allison (3,200) and Michael Clark (3,000). Cobb should be a lock to see double-digit targets and goes up against the Lions who rank 26th in aFPA.
Cash:
J. Jones, K. Allen, A. Green, T. Hilton, M. Goodwin, D. Baldwin, M. Jones, M. Thomas
GPP:
(all of above), J. Crowder, R. Anderson, R. Cobb, J. Doctson, W. Fuller, D. Amendola
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski (DK $7,000) – Gronk earns a $2M bonus if he accomplishes either of these stats. 11 catches for 80 on the season or 116 yards to reach 1,200 for the season. #NarrativeStreet.
Greg Olsen (DK $5,600) – Greg Olsen has seen a total of 18 targets in his last two games since returning from injured reserve. In that span, he has 12 catches for 143 yards and 1 touchdown. This week he faces the Falcons in a pivotal game for the Panthers to clinch the division. Olsen could see anywhere between 6-10 targets against the Falcons who rank 14th in aFPA.
Vance McDonald (DK $2,700) – In the past two games where McDonald was active, he has seen 11 targets for 8 catches and 104 yards. McDonald has worked his way into becoming the primary pass catcher over Jesse James and faces the Browns who rank 27th in aFPA to opposing tight ends. In a game that doesn’t feature Ben, Brown, or Bell, Landry Jones could check down to McDonald often.
Cash:
R. Gronkowski, G. Olsen, J. Doyle, C. Clay
GPP:
(all of above), J. Graham, E. Ebron
Defense
Seattle Seahawks (DK $3,400) – I like the Seattle defense to step up big at home in a must-win game against Drew Stanton. They aren’t quite the same legion of boom that they were a few years ago, but they are coming off of their best performance of the season (20 DK points) with 3 turnovers. Stanton hasn’t been awful but did throw 2 interceptions last week against the putrid Giants secondary.
Cash:
Patriots, Seahawks, 49ers
GPP:
Ravens, Vikings, Chiefs