The running back landscape for Week 6 in DFS is going to be very different. If you’re playing in the main Sunday afternoon slate, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack and James White are just a few of the names who won’t be at your disposal either because their team is on a bye or they are playing in a prime time game.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 7 – Running Backs
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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The running back position isn’t very deep for Week 7 because not only are four teams on a bye, but Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, and Kareem Hunt also won’t be available for the main Sunday afternoon slate in DFS because they play in primetime games. Let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain the edge for your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Todd Gurley vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $10,200
DraftKings = $9,800
Gurley dominated the Broncos last week, rushing 28 times for 208 yards and two touchdowns. After posting 13 rushing touchdowns in 2017, he already has nine through the first six weeks. He’s also been heavily involved in the passing game, receiving at least five targets in five of six games and posting two receiving scores.
It’s pick-your-poison when it comes to trying to defend against the Rams. Quarterback Jared Goff has shown significant improvement and they have a trio of excellent wide receivers, although Cooper Kupp likely won’t play in Week 7 due to a knee injury. Gurley is often put in great positions to score touchdowns and has one of the highest floors at any position in DFS, as a result. Don’t expect the 49ers to be able to slow him down.
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $8,100
The Cowboys pulled off a surprising 40-7 drubbing of the Jaguars on Sunday. Elliott played a key role in their victory, rushing 24 times for 106 yards and a touchdown. That marked the third time in the last four weeks that Elliot has rushed for at least 100 yards. He also converted his only target into an 11-yard score.
Outside of Week 6, the Cowboys offense hasn’t been very good this season. Elliott has been limited to four total touchdowns, as a result, but he’s been heavily involved with 117 carries and 23 receptions on 30 targets. His involvement in the passing game has provided a significant boost to his value after he had just 26 receptions on 38 targets across 10 games last year. The Redskins defense isn’t exactly a favorable matchup, but Elliott gets enough volume in the offense to still be worth considering in cash tournaments.
Christian McCaffrey vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,700
The Redskins stymied McCaffrey last week, holding him to 20 yards on eight carries. The Panthers were playing catchup after being down 14-0 after the first quarter, which was a big reason why McCaffrey had so few carries. Luckily, he’s a significant part of their passing game and finished the contest with seven catches on eight targets for 46 yards.
It was encouraging to see McCaffrey get so many targets even with tight end Greg Olsen returning from injury. Although McCaffrey did have an outlier performance where he rushed for 184 yards on 28 carries in Week 3, the majority of his value comes from his pass-catching abilities. The Eagles have been stout against the run, but they are tied for the fourth-most receptions allowed to opposing running backs (41).
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Tarik Cohen vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $5,100
Cohen got off to a quiet start this year but had his breakout game Week 4 when he not only rushed for 53 yards on 13 carries, but he also caught seven of eight targets for 121 yards and a touchdown. His speed and ability to catch passes out of the backfield makes him a tough cover for opposing defenses. The Bears had a bye for Week 5, but Cohen was productive again last week against the Dolphins, catching seven of nine targets for 90 yards and another touchdown.
Cohen does have to split backfield duties with Jordan Howard, but Howard has seen his percentage of snaps decrease each of the last three games, bottoming out at 51% in Week 6 compared to 49% for Cohen. If the Bears defense has trouble slowing down the Patriots, Cohen would likely be more involved in a high-scoring game as he’s a far superior pass catcher. He’s a bit risky, but there is plenty of upside here if the game flow falls in his favor.
Carlos Hyde vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $4,700
The Browns had their doors blown off by the Chargers last week as they were down 21-6 at the half and ultimately lost 38-14. As a result of the early lopsided score, Hyde finished with a season-low 14 carries for 34 yards. He also failed to receive a target for the first time this season, although he’s never logged more than three targets in any contest this season.
Maybe the most concerning part of Hyde’s poor performance was that he averaged just 2.4 yards-per-carry. That marked the third game this season where he has averaged less than three yards-per-carry. On the plus side, he has already scored five touchdowns. The Bucs haven’t given up a ton of rushing yards, but opposing offenses have only rushed the ball against them 112 times, fourth-fewest attempts in the NFL. They give up a lot of yards through the air, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Hyde at least finds himself in a favorable position to reach the end zone in this contest.
Kenyan Drake vs. Detroit Lions
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $4,900
Drake is involved in a frustrating timeshare for fantasy purposes with the ageless Frank Gore. Drake hasn’t logged more than 14 carries in any game this season, as a result. His best performance came in Week 5, but that was mostly attributed to his seven catches on 11 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown. The passing game is one area that he has been able to separate himself from Gore, receiving 31 targets compared to Gore’s five.
Don’t expect things to shift any in terms of his workload this week, but that doesn’t mean Drake can’t provide value. The Lions have allowed three running backs to rush for over 100 yards in a game this season and have allowed the third-most rushing yard per game (145.8), overall. His upside isn’t off the charts due to Gore’s presence, but Drake is still someone to consider in tournament play.
Peyton Barber vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $3,800
The Bucs running game has been horrendous. Entering Week 6, Barber had rushed for 33 yards or fewer in three straight games and rookie Ronald Jones is still very much a work in progress. Barber finally showed signs of life in Jameis Winston’s return as the starting quarterback Sunday, rushing 13 times for 82 yards and catching all four of his targets for an additional 24 yards.
Barber still has a long way to go before you can feel very comfortable rolling with him in your lineup. However, it was encouraging to see him get 13 carries coming out of the bye week compared to only one for Jones. Barber appears to have a hold on the lead back job, for the time being, and gets a favorable matchup Week 7 against a Browns team that is tied for the sixth-most yards-per-carry allowed (4.7) and has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (1382.).
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Mark Ingram vs. Baltimore Ravens
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $5,900
Alvin Kamara was a man possessed during Ingram’s four-game suspension. That didn’t matter for Ingram’s first game back, though, as he received 16 carries compared to just six for Kamara. Kamara was only on the field for 47% of the team’s offensive plays after being on the field for at least 71% of them in each of the previous four weeks. Some of that had to do with the Saints getting up big in that game, while some of it also might have been the Saints seeing an opportunity to give Kamara a little rest. Expect him to be much more involved Sunday. This isn’t a great matchup for the Saints’ running backs, either, with the Ravens allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (82.8).
Alex Collins vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,800
After averaging 4.6 yards-per-carry during his breakout campaign last year, Collins is only averaging 3.6 yards-per-carry this season. He did come away with two touchdowns last week, but Javorius Allen has been their preferred goal-line back. Allen has also been on the field for 47% of the team’s offensive plays this season compared to 43% for Collins. The Saints have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (71.4), leaving Collins with very little upside.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 – Running Backs
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
Running back isn’t especially deep for Week 6. The Saints are on a bye, meaning Alvin Kamara won’t be an option. The Lions are on a bye as well, which is a bad thing because they are a team you normally want to play opposing running backs against. Injuries continue to be a problem at the position, too, with Leonard Fournette expected to be out again due to his hamstring injury and Dalvin Cook still battling a hamstring issue of his own. Let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain the edge in DFS. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Todd Gurley vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $9,500
DraftKings = $10,000
Gurley didn’t exactly run wild Sunday against the Seahawks, rushing 22 times for 77 yards. His 3.5 yards-per-carry was his second-lowest mark of the season. However, he still had a monster performance with three rushing touchdowns. He also chipped in four catches on five targets for 36 yards, helping the Rams win a big game on the road against the Seahawks.
There is little doubt that Gurley is the top option at running back for Week 6. Not only does he get a ton of carries, but he’s received at least five targets in four of five games this year. He has one of the highest touchdown upsides in the league considering the Rams explosive offense. The Broncos were torched by Isaiah Crowell for 219 yards in Week 5 and have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (139.6) in the league.
Melvin Gordon vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,200
If you want reliable, Gordon is your man. His overall rushing yardage totals haven’t been off the charts, but he is averaging a career-high 4.6 yards-per-carry. He’s also scored a rushing touchdown in three of his last four games. However, maybe the biggest reason that Gordon has been a consistent source of fantasy points this year is because of his increased involvement in the passing game. After finishing 2017 with 58 receptions on 83 targets for 476 yards. Gordon already has 28 catches on 38 targets for 261 yards.
The Chargers do have an explosive backup to Gordon in Austin Ekler, but Gordon is clearly going to get plenty of work. The Browns have had their issues stopping opposing running backs, allowing 116.6 rushing yards per game and 28 receptions for 284 yards to opposing running backs. Gordon’s floor might not be as high as Gurley’s, but he’s a great option for your entry.
Christian McCaffrey vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $8,300
The Panthers enjoyed a bye for Week 4, leaving McCaffrey and company with plenty of rest heading into a home matchup against the Giants. McCaffrey had rushed 28 times for 184 yards Week 3 against the Bengals, a feat that was going to be very difficult for him to match. He didn’t come close to that kind of production, rushing 17 times for 58 yards. His 3.4 yards-per-carry was his lowest mark of the season, although the 17 carries were his second-most attempts.
The good part about McCaffrey is that he doesn’t need to have a lot of success carrying the ball to provide value. He caught five of six targets for 35 yards and a touchdown in that game, which was his first score of the season. Despite having a bye week, McCaffrey’s 32 targets are tied for sixth-most among running backs. The Redskins have only allowed 92.5 rushing yards per game, which is in large part because opponents have the fourth-fewest rushing attempts against them (92). The Panthers rely heavily on the run and with McCaffrey’s immense upside in the passing game, he’s still one of the best running backs available for Week 6.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Joe Mixon vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $7,500
Mixon returned in Week 5 from a two-week absence due to a knee injury. It was just in time for the Bengals, who have since lost his backup Giovani Bernard to a sprained MCL. With the lack of quality depth behind him, Mixon wasted no time in his return, rushing the ball 22 times for 93 yards. In the three games that Mixon has played, he has at least 17 carries and 84 rushing yards in each of them.
The Bengals will also turn to Mixon in the passing game with Bernard out, which helped him haul in three of four targets for 22 yards and a touchdown Sunday. This could be a high-scoring game against a Steelers team that is not only averaging 28.6 points per game but has also allowed 26.6 points per contest. Expect Mixon to put up plenty of yards and have a favorable chance of reaching the end zone.
Marshawn Lynch vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Wembley Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,300
The Raiders are a disaster. They scored 10 points in a loss to the Chargers in Week 5, marking the third time this season they have scored fewer than 20 points in a game. That’s not a recipe for success considering their defense has allowed 29.8 points per contest. Lynch was a victim of their lopsided loss Sunday, receiving a season-low nine carries. He finished with only 31 rushing yards and failed to score a touchdown for the second straight week.
Lynch and the Raiders will look to regroup for the first game of the season in London. This could be a matchup to exploit considering the Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (129) and the seventh-most yards-per-carry (4.7) in the league. Lynch had received at least 18 carries in each of the previous three weeks and has scored three touchdowns overall, making him an intriguing option in tournament play.
Chris Carson vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Wembley Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,400
One of the most perplexing running back situations in the league can be found in Seattle. They drafted Rashaad Penny in the first round to potentially be their running back of the future, but he hasn’t received more than 10 carries in a game this season and didn’t even log a single offensive snap in Week 5. Mike Davis has surprisingly been given a prominent role over the last two weeks, totaling 169 yards on 33 carries.
Carson was starting to establish himself after rushing 32 times for 102 yards in Week 3, but missed Week 4 due to injury. He returned Sunday, and although Davis still received 12 carries, Carson was the superior runner with 19 carries for 116 yards. Both players should continue to get carries Sunday but expect Carson to see the heavier workload. The uncertainty surrounding Seattle’s backfield has helped keep Carson’s price down, leaving him as someone worth taking a chance on since the Raiders have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (127.2).
Phillip Lindsay vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $4,500
Lindsay worked his way into a prominent role at the start of the season and hasn’t looked back. He was ejected early in Week 3’s game against the Ravens but has at least 12 carries and 61 rushing yards in each of his other four games. He’s still sharing the backfield with Royce Freeman, which has worked well for the Broncos so far since both players are averaging more than five yards-per-carry.
The split at running back somewhat limits Lindsay’s upside, especially since Freeman is going to get the majority of the goal-line carries. He already has three rushing touchdowns compared to just one for Lindsay. However, Freeman has received only six targets compared to 12 for Lindsay. The Broncos could find themselves in a big hole early against the Rams offense, and if that’s the case, the game plan late in the game would likely favor Lindsay. The Rams defense hasn’t been stout against the run, either, allowing the fourth-most yards-per-carry (5.0).
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $8,100
DraftKings = $7,000
This has more to do with Elliott’s price and matchup than anything else. He’s clearly one of the best running backs in the league and is the top offensive weapon on the Cowboys based on their lack of talent at wide receiver. They’ve even leaned on him more in the passing game, resulting in Elliot getting 29 targets this year. The Jaguars had a tough time against the Chiefs in Week 5, but the Cowboys have one of the least explosive offenses in the league. Look for the Jaguars to key in on stopping Elliott, making him a risky play at this price.
Kenyan Drake vs. Chicago Bears
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $4,600
Drake had his best performance of the season Sunday, finishing with 115 total yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. However, he only received six carries compared to 12 for Frank Gore. That marked the third straight week that Drake had fewer than 10 rushing attempts. Drake might have big-play upside, but it’s hard for him to cash in if he doesn’t get enough opportunities. The Bears have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (64) and have yet to allow a touchdown on the ground, so stay far away from Drake when crafting your entry.
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17
* Cesar Becerra *
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17
As I prefaced the article last week, the final two weeks of the NFL season are often the toughest to digest from a DFS perspective. Last week we didn’t see any teams rest any of their star players, but this week we have an entirely different scenario. We’ve already received reports that the Steelers, Rams, Eagles, Chiefs, and potentially the Vikings and Jaguars are all resting their starters.
We have a few teams like the Vikings, Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Seahawks, Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Chargers, Titans, and Bills all still fighting for either their playoff lives of their playoff positioning. Here is a thorough look at what the Week 17 playoff scenarios look like.
Vegas
As you’d expect with all the late news about teams sitting their star players we’ve seen a lot of movement within the Vegas lines. The largest line movement of the week was a 10 point swing with the 49ers going from +6.5 underdogs to a -3.5 favorite. The following are the biggest shifts in the Vegas lines Browns (+14.5 to 7), Colts ( +o to -5.5), Cowboys (+1 to -3), Seahawks (-7.5 to -10), and Jags (+5 to +3).
Despite the line movements, there are still seven teams that are more than a touchdown favorite, the Patriots (-16.5), Vikings (-13), Seahawks (-10), Ravens (-10), Chargers (-7.5), Steelers & Saints (-7). Most of these teams also sit with the highest implied team total starting with the Patriots (30). Followed by Saints (28.25), Vikings (26.25), Ravens (25), Lions (24.74), Chargers (24.75), Falcons (24.5), Seahawks (24.25), and 49ers (23.25).
There aren’t many games with incredibly high over/under with only two games sitting with a game total over 45, (NO @ TB 49.5) and (ATL @ CAR 45). There are 8 games (CIN @ BAL 40), (CHI @ MIN 39.5), (WAS @ NYG 39.5), (DAL @ PHI 39), (ARI @ SEA 38.5), (KC @ DEN 38.5), (CLE @ PIT 36.5) with game totals of 40 points or less, which leaves game stacks hard to come by for this slate.
This data was taken as of Friday afternoon, but as always, you should always check back at Vegas Insiders on Sunday morning.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson (DK $6,900) – Wilson might be the safest play at quarterback this week, and unfortunately, he doesn’t come cheap as he is the highest priced quarterback on the slate. But with all these secondary players playing this week, there is a ton of value on this slate. Wilson checks the all the boxes you would ask for during week 17. He has a decent team total (24.25), is playing as a home favorite, and is playing for their playoff lives. He’s facing the Cardinals who rank 8th in aFPA, but Wilson has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league following the Seahawks’ bye this season.
Jimmy Garoppolo (DK $6,700) – At this point, nothing else can be said other than Jimmy G is the GOAT. He is coming off of a week where he destroyed the best defense in the league by completing 70% of his passes. He has exceeded his value in 3 of his first 4 starts with the 49ers and now faces the Rams who will likely be rolling out second stringers. The matchup doesn’t look great on paper (Rams rank 5th in aFPA vs. QB), but the 49ers offense is white hot right now and if the Rams most of their starters, look for Garoppolo to have a field day to ride into the offseason with a perfect 7-0 record as a starter.
Patrick Mahomes (DK $4,700) – After the news broke that Andy Reid was going to rest Alex Smith in the final regular season game, Mahomes immediately became the best value play at the quarterback position. During the preseason, Mahomes completed 63% his 54 passes for 390 yards and four touchdowns and no interceptions. He also showed his athleticism that we saw so much in college with 8 rushes for 44 yards. I’ve noted in the past that the Broncos secondary is not as scary as they used to be (16th in aFPA) and have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns in the league (29). Mahomes will be the chalk for people paying down at QB
Cash:
R. Wilson, J. Garoppolo, C. Newton, P. Mahomes, K. Cousins, P. Mahomes
GPP:
(all of above), M. Stafford, P. Rivers, T. Taylor, M. Ryan, J. Brissett
Running backs
Alvin Kamara (DK $7,900) – With the news that Bell and Gurley are sitting the high tier at running back is very thin. I also expect Kareem Hunt (7,600), Leonard Fournette (7,100), and potentially Melvin Gordon (7,400) to all sit or be very limited so I will be staying away from them. That makes Kamara my favorite high priced back. Kamara has seen his price dip below 8k for the first time since in five weeks, which is appropriate given that he hasn’t met salary expectations in 3 of the last 4 games. This week the Saints still have an opportunity to clinch the division and are going up against the Bucs who rank 21st in aFPA against running backs. Kamara already destroyed the Bucs back in week 9 when he put up 32.2 DK points and totaled 2 touchdowns with 152 yards.
Kenyan Drake (DK $7,200) – I surprisingly haven’t heard many people talking up Drake this week, so it seems that I will be overexposed to the field this week. Drake has crushed value in 4 of his past 5 games and last week he only got 13 touches because of the game flow. This week the Dolphins are at small underdogs (+2.5) at home against the Bills. The Bills are dead last in aFPA, and Drake smashed them two weeks ago for 23.3 DK points and 113 total yards with one score. Drake is coming in as a sneaky tournament play. I’m not sure if I can play him in cash given the uber chalk Dion Lewis is $400 cheaper, but I like him as a pivot for tournaments.
Derrick Henry (DK $5,500) – Henry is finally expected to work as the Titans’ featured back with DeMarco Murray expected to either be limited or inactive with an MCL sprain. Football fans have long been waiting for the former Heisman trophy winner to get a full workload and he appears in line for that against the Jags who have a run funnel defense, ranking 25th in aFPA vs. running backs and 9th in aFPA vs. quarterbacks. Henry is the chalk for value running backs this week.
Cash:
A. Kamara, D. Lewis, M. Ingram, C. McCaffrey, D. Henry
GPP:
(all of above), K. Drake, E. Elliott, C. Hyde, A. Collins, J. Williams
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones (DK $8,200) – Julio comes in as the chalk this week at wide receiver. He’s averaging at least 7 targets the past 16 games and is going up against the Panthers who rank 30th in aFPA. In Julio’s first time facing the Panthers, he went off for 20.8 DK points with 6 catches for 118 yards. In a must-win game for the Falcons, look for Matt Ryan to force feed Julio like he did last week against the Saints. Julio will be the highest owned receiver, but I don’t mind pivoting to Keenan Allen against the Raiders (22nd aFPA vs. WR) if you’re willing to eat the ownership on Julio.
TY Hilton (DK $5,900) – Hilton is the other chalk wide receiver. He’s coming off of a 6 catch, 100-yard performance against the Ravens who are a top 10 team against defending wide receivers. Hilton now gets the Texans who are dead last in aFPA to wide receivers. Earlier this season Hilton torched the Texans for 37.5 DK points on 5 catches for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns. Hilton has 29 targets in the past 4 weeks of tough matchups (Baltimore (12), Broncos (7), Bills (4), & Jags (6). He is 48 yards shy of his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season, so I expect Brissett to feed him the ball.
Randall Cobb (DK $4,700) – With the reports that Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson will be out week 17, that makes Cobb the new number 1 target for Brett Hundley. Cobb has 29 targets in the past 3 weeks, and the supporting cast will feature Geronimo Allison (3,200) and Michael Clark (3,000). Cobb should be a lock to see double-digit targets and goes up against the Lions who rank 26th in aFPA.
Cash:
J. Jones, K. Allen, A. Green, T. Hilton, M. Goodwin, D. Baldwin, M. Jones, M. Thomas
GPP:
(all of above), J. Crowder, R. Anderson, R. Cobb, J. Doctson, W. Fuller, D. Amendola
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski (DK $7,000) – Gronk earns a $2M bonus if he accomplishes either of these stats. 11 catches for 80 on the season or 116 yards to reach 1,200 for the season. #NarrativeStreet.
Greg Olsen (DK $5,600) – Greg Olsen has seen a total of 18 targets in his last two games since returning from injured reserve. In that span, he has 12 catches for 143 yards and 1 touchdown. This week he faces the Falcons in a pivotal game for the Panthers to clinch the division. Olsen could see anywhere between 6-10 targets against the Falcons who rank 14th in aFPA.
Vance McDonald (DK $2,700) – In the past two games where McDonald was active, he has seen 11 targets for 8 catches and 104 yards. McDonald has worked his way into becoming the primary pass catcher over Jesse James and faces the Browns who rank 27th in aFPA to opposing tight ends. In a game that doesn’t feature Ben, Brown, or Bell, Landry Jones could check down to McDonald often.
Cash:
R. Gronkowski, G. Olsen, J. Doyle, C. Clay
GPP:
(all of above), J. Graham, E. Ebron
Defense
Seattle Seahawks (DK $3,400) – I like the Seattle defense to step up big at home in a must-win game against Drew Stanton. They aren’t quite the same legion of boom that they were a few years ago, but they are coming off of their best performance of the season (20 DK points) with 3 turnovers. Stanton hasn’t been awful but did throw 2 interceptions last week against the putrid Giants secondary.
Cash:
Patriots, Seahawks, 49ers
GPP:
Ravens, Vikings, Chiefs
Draftkings NFL Cash and GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 15
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 15
We have arrived to the Draftkings championship week. If you are fortunate enough to earn a seat, good luck to you as 200 entries compete for the $2 million top prize. The Draftkings main slate is a unique one this week with only 11 games. There are two games on Saturday along with the usual Thursday Night, Sunday Night, and Monday Night games that are not on the main slate. On top of that, we have six teams (Steelers, Patriots, Jags, Eagles, Rams, and Vikings) potentially able to clinch a playoff berth this week. Let’s dive right in.
Vegas
As a polar opposite of last week’s Vegas stats, this week features three teams that are double-digit favorites. The Saints are a massive 16 point favorite against the Jets. The Vikings are 11 point favorites at home against the Bengals, and the Jags are 10.5 home favorites against the Texans. Outside of these three teams, the Eagles (7.5) and Ravens (7.5) are road touchdown favorites, rounding out the largest spreads of the week.
There are a few games worth targeting this week, starting with the Pats at the Steelers, which has a slate high 53 game total. The Rams at Seahawks, Jets at Saints, and Packers at Panthers all have nice game totals over 47. Outside of those games, there aren’t any games with totals over 45.
As far as implied team totals, the Saints are the clear front-runners with an implied total of 31.75 points. The Pats have the second-best total of 28 points. The Vikings (26.5), Jags (25), Steelers (25), Panthers (24.75) and Seahawks (24.75) round out the top 5 highest implied team totals.
All this Vegas data was taken as of Wednesday night, so I strongly suggest checking back on Vegas Insiders on Sunday morning.
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton (DK $6,400) – Cam comes into week 15 as one of my favorite quarterbacks of the week. He’s the 6th highest priced quarterback and has a really good matchup at home against the Packers (29th aFPA vs. QBs). We saw Deshone Kizer light up this same Packers secondary last week and scored 19.26 DK points, that’s about Cam’s floor. Cam performs much better as a home favorite opposed to as a home underdog, and that is the situation he finds himself in this week. His team’s implied total is in the top 5 of the slate (24.75) and I expect this game to be a lot closer than most anticipate. I also love Cam’s rushing upside. Since week 6, Cam has rushed the ball more than 9 times in all but two games. Cam has a nice floor with his rushing upside and has a good ceiling of close to 30 points.
Drew Brees (DK $6,500) – An interesting pivot off Cam would be to pay the extra $100 to get to Drew Brees. Brees isn’t the same Brees we’ve grown to know with the Saints offense constantly throwing the ball 40+ times. Because of the Saints dynamic rushing duo, Brees has failed to meet salary expectations 5 of the last 6 games. Brees has only met salary expectation at home twice this season. All this points to a sneaky gpp play with Brees going up against the Jets funnel defense as they rank 32nd in aFPA to QB’s and are 7th in aFPA to RBs. Brees’ floor is much lower than Newton, but his ceiling always makes him appealing for tournaments.
Blake Bortles (DK $5,700) – Scraping the bottom of the barrel for a value QB is really difficult this week. With the limited number of games, there is a limited number of value quarterbacks on the slate. I’m more than likely going to stay in the midrange ($6,000 – $7,000). But if you are really looking for value, I would say take a look at Bortles. Bortles is coming off of two really decent games in which he combined to throw for 577 yards with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions (46.58 DK points). This week he faces a horrible Texans defense that ranks 30th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. Believe it or not, I may have talked myself into playing Bortles as I’m writing this.
Cash:
C. Newton, C. Keenum, B. Roethlisberger, R. Wilson, B. Bortles
GPP:
D. Brees, T. Brady, A. Rodgers, J. Goff
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell (DK $9,300) – Finally we get the opportunity to roster Le’Veon in the main slate. Bell is the highest priced back, $700 more than Kamara, and at this point, it doesn’t matter. He’s in a league of his own, and the upwards of $9,000 price tag doesn’t scare me. Bell has been priced over 9K almost every game this season and has smashed nearly every week. The past three games, Bell is averaging 33.66 DK points and is averaging over 25 touches per game. Although Bell has only carried the ball more than 20 times once the last three weeks, he’s still seeing double-digit targets and has converted that to over 270 receiving yards in the last three games.
Kenyan Drake (DK $5,800) – Kenyan Drake has been absolutely smashing since Damien Williams went down in week 12. Drake has taken over the Dolphins backfield and has produced better than Gase could have expected. In two games without Williams, Drake is playing 85% of the snaps, has 91% of the rushing attempts and has accumulated 234 yards with 1 touchdown and 8 receptions. He has accumulated 53.4 DK points in those two games. This week he goes up against the Bills defense that ranks 32nd in aFPA to opposing running backs and just got lit up by old man Frank Gore for 130 yards. Drake is the chalk this week.
** It’s worth checking William’s practice status as he is pushing to get back on the field. **
Jerick McKinnon (DK $4,800) – There isn’t a free square value play like there was last week with Gio Bernard, but this week McKinnon might rank as my favorite. McKinnon is the same price as Samaje Perine, who undoubtedly comes with a safer floor given that Washington isn’t utilizing a running back committee but I still like McKinnon. McKinnon is starting to separate himself from Latavius Murray, having played more snaps (53% to 46%) and received more of targets (18 to 8) in the past 4 weeks. Murray still sees the majority of the rushing attempts (60:43), but DK’s PPR format helps make McKinnon more valuable. McKinnon is a huge home favorite against the Bengal who rank 30th in aFPA allowed. I do have some hesitation that if the Vikings get out to a big lead, it could mean more of Murray pounding the ball opposed to McKinnon catching the ball out of the backfield, but I think this game is closer than most anticipate.
Cash:
L. Bell, T. Gurley, K. Drake, G. Bernard, S. Perine, L. McCoy
GPP:
A. Kamara > M. Ingram, L. Fournette, K. Williams, J. Ajayi, J. McKinnon, C. McCaffrey
Wide Receivers
Michael Thomas (DK $7,400) – Outside of Antonio Brown ($9,100) the next best receiver to hit cash game value is Michael Thomas. He’s one of six active receivers averaging over 10 targets per game in the past month and this week he has a nice matchup against the Jets. The Jets rank 28th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers, and Thomas leads the team in targets with 125 on the season and 9.6 targets per game. Thomas has the better matchup than Hopkins at $7,700 and Thielen $7,600.
Devin Funchess (DK $6,600) – The other highest owned receiver along with Thomas might be Funchess. Funchess has either scored a touchdown or reached the 100-yard bonus each of his last 4 games and now gets one of the best matchups you could ask for against the Packers. The Packers are the worst team in the league against opposing wide receivers, and this game could very well shoot out if Aaron Rodgers suits up. Funchess leads the team in targets (39) since the Panthers traded Benjamin. You don’t always have to pair Cam with any of his receivers because of Cam’s rushing upside, but Funchess would be the ideal stack if you do.
AJ Green (DK $6,500) – AJ Green has seen a crazy price drop and is all the way down to $6,500. Green is a top 5 receiver in the league, and I’ll always be interested in Green at this price point. The problem is that Green is going up against the Vikings who rank 6th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers and will see a lot of Xavier Rhodes. Green may be a risk for cash games considering there is Funches around that price range. But I love getting exposure to him at his price in tournaments.
Jordy Nelson (DK $6,300) – The ghost of Jordy Nelson. He’s had a terrible year, but with the news that Aaron Rodgers could return, that could mean an uptick in targets for Nelson. Unfortunately, his price actually increased above $6,000, so he doesn’t come as much of a bargain. But he should come in at single-digit ownership, which makes for a nice tournament flyer.
Cash:
A. Brown, M. Thomas, D. Funches, A. Green, M. Goodwin, A. Jeffrey, R. Anderson, D. Westbrook
GPP:
A. Thielen, B. Cooks, D. Adams, J. Crowder, D. Baldwin, P. Richardson, R. Matthews
Tight End
Zach Ertz (DK $6,000) – This week we don’t have the value that we had last week with Ertz missing the game making Trey Burton a plug and play. We’re still waiting to hear if Ertz will play this week, but if he does, he’s substantially cheaper than Gronk ($7,300). Even without Wentz, Nick Foles is a formattable backup quarterback. It doesn’t get much better than a matchup against the Giants who rank 26th in aFPA to tight ends. If Ertz is active, he should be considered the top play at tight end.
Jimmy Graham (DK $4,900) – Graham is an even bigger discount from the high priced tight ends. You can’t deny Graham’s red zone market share, and the matchup against the Rams should be a game that is back and forth. The Rams are respectable against tight ends (12th aFPA), but last time these two faced off Graham went for 15.7 DK points. The sub $5,000 price tag seems reasonable to me.
Vernon Davis (DK $3,900) – Davis might be my favorite punt play. He’s taken over the starting tight end job with Reed being placed on IR. The issue is he’s been relatively quiet the last four games only catching 7 balls for 117 yards. The bright side is that last week he saw his targets jump back up to 7 against the Chargers and he was able to find his way into the end zone. Below $4,000 against the Cardinals (18th aFPA vs. TE), I’ll take my chances here if I need salary relief.
Cash:
R. Gronkowski, Z. Ertz, J. Graham, V. Davis
GPP:
E. Engram, D. Walker, G. Olsen, C. Clay, A. Seferian-Jenkins
Defense
Minnesota Vikings (DK $3,500) – The top five priced defense are all in positive spots. Of the five, I like the Vikings the most given their $1,000 salary savings from the Jags. They’re up against the Bengals who just got embarrassed by the 4-9 Bears. The Vikings are coming off of a disappointing loss and should look to rebound as huge home favorites.
Miami Dolphins (DK $2,700) – If Tyrod Taylor is ruled out on Sunday, that could leave Joe Webb starting for the Bills. Joe Webb showed some potential in the preseason, but the Dolphins defense just put out their best performance of the season beating the Patriots on Monday Night Football. Check the news on Taylor. If Taylor is out I wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on Miami.
Fantasy Football Playoff Strategy – Waiver Wire Targets
*Mike Barner*
Fantasy Football Playoff Strategy – Waiver Wire Targets
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While it may be hard to believe, we are already heading into Week 11 of the NFL season. In many fantasy leagues, that means only four more weeks of games will be played until the fantasy playoffs start Week 15. Some of you may already have an eye towards the playoffs or may have even clinched a birth. Congratulations if that’s the case.
If you are in a position to make the fantasy playoffs, you want to start taking a look at the matchups now to see where you can gain an edge. Making the right add on the waiver wire now could be the difference in bringing home the championship in your league or falling short of reaching the ultimate goal. Here are some players at each position who are still available in many leagues who have favorable matchups weeks 15 and 16.
**QUARTERBACKS**
Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers offense has not been good this season as they enter Week 11 with the eighth-fewest points scored in the NFL. That being said, Rivers is still having a respectable season with 2,263 passing yards and 15 touchdowns. After throwing 21 interceptions last year, Rivers has done a much better job of limiting turnovers as he has only thrown seven picks this season. Week 15 brings a favorable matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs as they have allowed the sixth-most net passing yards per game (259). Week 16 brings an even better matchup against the New York Jets as they are tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed (20). Rivers is still available in 43% of ESPN leagues, so see if your league is one of them if you need help at quarterback.
Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
Flacco’s recent body of work is discouraging as he has thrown for less than 200 yards in three of his last four games. However, one of those games was a blowout win where he wasn’t needed much. Another was against a tough Minnesota Vikings defense on the road. He will get to face the Browns Week 15, who are tied for the second most passing touchdowns allowed (19). Week 16 also brings a great matchup against an Indianapolis Colts defense that is allowing the second most net passing yards per game (275). Flacco is still available in 92% of ESPN leagues, but he will have added value when it counts the most.
**RUNNING BACKS**
Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins
When the Dolphins traded lead running back Jay Ajayi to the Philadelphia Eagles, it was expected that Drake would split the backfield duties with Damien Williams. While Williams has been more involved in the passing attack, Drake has established himself as the more valuable fantasy asset of the two. Since Ajayi’s departure, Drake has 151 rushing yards, 45 receiving yards, and one touchdown over two games. The Dolphins will take on the Buffalo Bills Week 15, who have allowed the most rushing touchdowns (14) this season. Week 16 brings a juicy matchup against the Chiefs as they have allowed the fourth most rushing yards per game (131.1). Drake is not only a great option for the fantasy playoffs, but you want him for the rest of the season in general. He is still available in 43% of ESPN leagues.
Danny Woodhead, Baltimore Ravens
Woodhead was expected to have a significant role in the Ravens offense heading into the season, but he was hurt in the first game and placed on injured reserve. He is eligible to return now and could be back on the field in a week or two, giving him plenty of time to shake off the rust before the fantasy playoffs. With the Ravens favorable fantasy schedule already outlined above, Woodhead is someone you want to target on waivers, especially in PPR leagues. He is still available in 61% of ESPN leagues.
Dion Lewis, New England Patriots
It almost makes me sick to my stomach thinking of relying on a Patriots runnings back during the fantasy playoffs. However, with all the injuries in the NFL this season and the Patriots favorable schedule, it might be the prudent move to make. Lewis has been more involved in the offense of late as he has at least 11 carries and 44 yards in each of the last four games. He has also scored two rushing touchdowns across those four games. The Patriots face the Pittsburgh Steelers Week 15, who are in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of yards-per-carry allowed (4.2) this season. Week 16 brings a great matchup against the aforementioned porous Bills rushing defense. Lewis is still available in 63% of ESPN leagues.
**WIDE RECEIVERS**
Marqise Lee, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars rely heavily on Lee as he has received at least 10 targets in three of the last four games. He has largely produced, hauling in at least 55 receiving yards in all four of those game. With Allen Robinson out for the season, Lee will continue to have a significant role. Week 15 brings a matchup against the Houston Texans, who are also tied for the second most passing touchdowns allowed (19). They face the San Francisco 49ers Week 16, who are right behind the Texans with 18 passing touchdowns allowed. Lee is still available in 57% of ESPN leagues, so go pick him up.
Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans
Davis’ promising rookie season was put on hold after Week 2 due to injury. Expected to be a major part of the offense, he received 10 targets Week 1. Now healthy, he received another 10 targets Week 10. He only hauled in 4 of them for 48 yards, but the volume is the key. His best matchup of the fantasy playoffs comes Week 15 against the 49ers. While he does face a tougher Los Angeles Rams defense Week 16, the Titans might need to throw the ball a lot to keep up with the Rams high-scoring offense. Davis is still available in 66% of ESPN leagues and provides nice upside.
Taylor Gabriel, Atlanta Falcons
Gabriel is the third wide receiver behind Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, limiting his value. He only has 23 receptions, 303 receiving yards, and one touchdown this season. Not exactly someone who screams waiver target right? Well if you are in a deep league, he might be the wise add to make. He will get the opportunity to take advantage of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 15 as they have allowed the fourth-most net passing yards per game (266). While Week 16 brings a matchup against a much-improved New Orleans Saints defense, the game is in New Orleans. The Saints could be racking up points in a hurry, causing Atlanta to rely heavily on their passing attack. Gabriel is still available in 89% of ESPN leagues and could be a valuable pickup for your squad.
**TIGHT ENDS**
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers
Putting Olsen in any waiver wire article at the start of this year would have seemed ludicrous. However, he was dropped in many leagues after being placed on injured reserve with a foot injury earlier in the season. He is eligible to return Week 12 and all indications are that he will be ready. With Kelvin Benjamin now in Buffalo, Olsen is going to be a target monster. He’d have value regardless of who is playing but does have nice matchups against the Green Bay Packers Week 15 and the Buccaneers Week 16. He is still available in 49% of ESPN leagues. Go get him now while you still can.
Jermaine Gresham, Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have dealt with significant injuries to both running back David Johnson and quarterback Carson Palmer, severely limiting their offense. Backup quarterbacks often like to use their tight end as a security blanket, which has been the case in Arizona. In two games with Drew Stanton at the helm, Gresham has a total of 10 targets, seven catches, 87 yards and two touchdowns. The Cardinals face the Washington Redskins Week 15 and the New York Giants Week 16, two of the worst teams at defending tight ends. He’s still available in 99% of ESPN leagues and has upside if you need help.
**DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS**
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals defense doesn’t have the easiest of tasks Week 15 against the Redskins, but Week 16 is a great matchup against the Giants. Only three teams have scored fewer points than the injury-riddled Giants. Two widely-owned fantasy defenses that have bad matchups Week 16 include the Saints against the Falcons and the Seattle Seahawks against the Dallas Cowboys. You might not want to start the Cardinals Week 15, but they could be more valuable Week 16 than those two teams. The Cardinals are still available in 53% of ESPN leagues.
Washington Redskins
Normally, starting the Redskins wouldn’t be on your radar as they are in the bottom half in terms of fantasy points scored. However, they have crazy good matchups in the fantasy playoffs. They get the banged-up Cardinals Week 15 and the Denver Broncos Week 16, another team who struggles to score. To top it off, both games are in Washington. They are still available in 86% of ESPN leagues and could be a difference maker in your league.