As per usual, a dose of day games leaves with us with a limited featured evening slate in DFS on Wednesday. With that being said, there are still a lot of great pitching and hitting options to consider.
Read MoreMLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/9/18
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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Although there are a couple of doubleheaders Monday, only nine games will make up the main slate in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
STARTING PITCHERS
Jose Berrios vs. Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $10,100
DraftKings = $12,100
Berrios has allowed five home runs in his last two starts and has had problems keeping hitters inside the park this season with a 1.3 HR/9. However, he still has a 3.54 ERA and a 3.39 FIP in large part because of his 1.00 WHIP. He had control issues when he began his career in the majors, but he’s thrown a first-pitch strike to 65.6% of the batters that he has faced and has a 2.0 BB/9 this year. He also has career highs in swinging-strike rate (11.4%) and K/9 (9.0). The Royals have hit the fewest home runs (70) and scored the fewest runs (310) in baseball, making Berrios one of the top pitching options.
Kyle Hendricks vs. San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $7,000
DraftKings = $7,300
Hendricks has never finished with an ERA over 3.96 or a FIP over 3.88 in his career, but he has a 4.27 ERA and a 4.80 FIP this season. Both his 1.25 WHIP and 1.5 HR/9 would also be the highest marks of his career. He’s never been an overpowering pitcher, but he has just a 6.7 K/9. He’s allowed 13 runs over 13.1 innings in his last three starts, but he gave up only one run and recorded seven strikeouts over seven innings in his first start against the Giants this year. The Giants are in the bottom-third of the league in runs scored, so Hendricks is a viable option in tournament play despite his lack of strikeout potential.
CATCHER/FIRST BASE
Yuli Gurriel vs. Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Minute Maid Park
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,700
Gurriel has only hit six home runs this season, but he has followed up his .299 average last year with a .303 mark. He hasn’t been completely devoid of power as he does have 22 doubles on his way to what could be his second-straight season with at least 40 doubles. He doesn’t walk much, but he also only has a 10.6% strikeout rate. Montas has allowed a lot of baserunners with a 1.47 WHIP, so he could be in trouble with Gurriel’s ability to make contact.
Wilson Ramos vs. Francisco Liriano, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKing = $4,200
Ramos has been named to his second All-Star team in the last three seasons. He’s earned the honor to start for the AL by batting .289 with 12 home runs. The Rays have scored the fifth-fewest runs in baseball, that hasn’t stopped Ramos from recording 47 RBI. His .368 wOBA against lefties makes him a great option against Liriano.
Others to consider: Matt Adams (first base) and C.J. Cron (first base)
SECOND BASE
Max Muncy vs. Luis Perdomo, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $4,200
DraftKings = $5,200
Muncy finished a rough three-game set against the Angels 1-for-11 with six strikeouts. This might be just the matchup he needs to get back on track as Perdomo has followed up his 1.51 WHIP last year with a 2.19 WHIP in five starts this year. He has also allowed a .361 wOBA against lefties for his career. Of note, Muncy is only second base eligible on FanDuel as he is listed at first base and third base on DraftKings.
Eduardo Nunez vs. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $3,700
The Rangers starting rotation has been a mess this season. Minor’s numbers aren’t great, but he’s been one of their more reliable pitchers with a 4.63 ERA and a 4.41 FIP. He only has a 1.20 WHIP, but he’s been hurt by allowing 1.4 HR/9. Minor has held lefties to a .308 wOBA, but righties have had more success with a .336 wOBA. Nunez won’t cost much, but he is a viable option to consider in tournament play if you need to save money at second base.
Others to consider: Brian Dozier and Daniel Robertson
THIRD BASE
Jose Ramirez vs. Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Progressive Field
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $5,700
Ramirez already has more steals (19) this year than he did in all of 2017 (17) and his 24 home runs put him only five behind last year’s mark. His batting average remains excellent at .292 and he has 54 walks compared to only 44 strikeouts. He has a lofty .433 wOBA against righties, making him a great option again Monday even at this expensive price.
Matt Duffy vs. Francisco Liriano, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,500
Liriano has dominated lefties this season by holding them to a .207 wOBA, but right-handed hitters have had plenty of success with a .343 wOBA. His ERA looks respectable at 4.03, but his 5.27 FIP indicates he is not having a good year. The Rays don’t exactly have a potent offense, but Duffy hits for a high average and has some upside Monday despite his lack of homers.
Others to consider: Alex Bregman and Colin Moran
SHORTSTOP
Xander Bogaerts vs. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $5,000
Bogaerts entered Monday 6-for-12 with two home runs, two doubles, and 10 RBI in his last four games. Three of those contests came against the Royals terrible staff, but as already detailed, Minor hasn’t exactly pitched well either. Bogaerts has hit for a ton of power this season with a .520 slugging percentage and his batting average hasn’t suffered either at .281. He only has two stolen bases, but it’s hard to complain about the production he has provided.
Jorge Polanco vs. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,800
Duffy has been prone to horrendous starts this season, allowing at least five runs in seven of his 18 outings. The end result has been a 5.19 ERA that is supported by a 5.39 FIP. Until he makes major improvements on his 1.50 WHIP and 1.7 HR/9, continue to target hitters against Duffy in DFS. Polanco has only played in seven games this year due to suspension, but he could be one of several Twins to have a valuable performance.
Others to consider: Francisco Lindor and Chris Taylor
OUTFIELD
Mookie Betts vs. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $6,100
Betts continues to swing a hot bat for the Red Sox as he is 23-for-64 (.359) with four home runs in his last 16 games. He only has six RBI during that stretch, but he scored 16 runs and had 12 walks compared to just eight strikeouts. His 212 wRC+ against lefties overall this year makes him a great option even though he will cost you a ton on both sites.
Juan Soto vs. Ivan Nova, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – Nationals Park
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $4,800
Nova does a great job limiting walks, but he’s an average starting pitcher at best. He doesn’t have great stuff with just a 6.9 K/9, which is a big reason why he has also allowed 1.7 HR/9. He has allowed a wOBA of at least .361 against lefties in each of the last three seasons and is close to that mark again this year by allowing a .358 wOBA. Stacking lefties against him Monday could be a wise move, Soto included.
Kyle Tucker vs. Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Minute Maid Park
FanDuel = $2,000
DraftKings = $4,000
Tucker had plenty of success at Triple-A this season before the Astros called him up, batting .306 with 14 home runs, 14 steals and a .371 OBP. He’s 1-for-7 in his first two games with the big club, but he has some potential Monday considering Montas has allowed a .361 wOBA against lefties. His price isn’t great on DraftKings, but at the minimum on FanDuel, he could be worth the risk in tournament play.
Others to consider: Christian Yelich and Joc Pederson
MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 16
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
July special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout
If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.
Starters With Favorable Matchups
Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins: vs. KC, vs. TB
Berrios has allowed five home runs in his last two starts and has had problems keeping hitters inside the park, in general, this year with a 1.3 HR/9. However, he still has a 3.54 ERA and a 3.39 FIP because he has kept runners off base with a 1.00 WHIP. He had control issues when he was first called up, but he’s thrown a first-pitch strike to 65.6% of the batters that he has faced and has a 2.0 BB/9 this year. He also has career highs in swinging-strike rate (11.4%) and K/9 (9.0). His first start in Week 16 against the Royals is an excellent matchup considering they have hit the fewest home runs (70) and scored the fewest runs (310) in baseball. The Rays aren’t much better as they have the fifth-fewest home runs (79) and the fifth-fewest runs scored (347).
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs: at SF, at SD
Hendricks has never finished with an ERA over 3.96 or a FIP over 3.88 in his career, but he has a 4.27 ERA and a 4.80 FIP this season. Not only would his 1.25 WHIP be the highest of his career, but so would his 1.5 HR/9. He’s never been an overpowering pitcher, but he has just a 6.7 K/9. He’s allowed 13 runs over 13.1 innings in his last three starts, but his fortunes could change this week since both the Giants and the Padres are in the bottom-third of the league in runs scored. He has yet to face the Padres this year, but he allowed only one run and recorded seven strikeouts over seven innings in his lone start against the Giants. You shouldn’t count on him for strikeouts, but he can still provide value in Week 16.
Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies: at NYM, at MIA
Eflin was supposed to start twice in Week 15 but left his first start with a blister issue. The Phillies decided to give him an extra day of rest for his next outing, pushing him from Sunday to Monday. He was rolling before suffering the blister against the Orioles, allowing two runs and recording six strikeouts in seven innings. He’s having by far the best season of his young career, posting a 2.97 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and a 1.08 WHIP over 11 starts. Not only does he get to face the aforementioned poor Marlins lineup, but the Mets have been even worse, scoring the third-fewest runs (336). As long as his blister doesn’t cause further issues, this is shaping up to be an excellent week for Eflin.
Jhoulys Chacin, Milwaukee Brewers: at MIA, at PIT
Chacin has been a good addition to the Brewers starting staff, posting a 3.63 ERA, 3.84 FIP, and a 1.29 WHIP across 19 starts. He has only allowed 0.6 HR/9, which is nothing new considering he has a 0.8 HR/9 for his career. That’s especially impressive considering he spent six seasons having to pitch in Coors Field as a member of the Rockies. The Marlins have had a couple of big offensive performances lately, but they have still scored four runs or fewer in 8 of their last 13 games. The Pirates offense is middle of the pack at best, setting up Chacin with the potential for two strong performances. He is still available in 67% of Yahoo! leagues, so pick him up if you are looking to stream someone.
Starters to Avoid
Mike Leake, Seattle Mariners: at LAA, at COL
Leake was stellar for the Mariners in June, recording a 2.57 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in six starts. He was aided by a .225 opponents BABIP though and even with that hot stretch, he still has a 4.11 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP for the season overall. He’s never provided many strikeouts and this season has been no different with a 5.6 K/9. Leake has already faced the Angels three times this year and while he did have one good start where he allowed one run in six innings, he allowed seven runs (six earned) over 9.1 innings in the other two. It doesn’t get any easier having to pitch in Coors Field for his second start of the week, so this is not the week to take a chance on putting Leake into your lineup.
Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies: vs. ARI, vs. SEA
Like many of the Rockies’ pitchers, Anderson struggles to pitch in Coors Field. He has a 3.48 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP on the road this year, but a 4.37 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP at home. He has thrown seven fewer innings at home, but he has allowed three more home runs there than he has on the road. The Diamondbacks have had much more success against lefties with a .762 OPS this year and hammered Anderson for seven runs over 2.1 innings in their first meeting. The Mariners won’t have the use of the DH playing in the National League, but they still have a potent offense that can score in bunches. Keep Anderson on your bench.
Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays: at ATL, at BOS
Stroman got off to an abysmal start this season, then landed on the DL with a shoulder issue. He put together two strong starts upon first being activated, but was rocked for six runs over 4.2 innings in his last outing against the Mets. Things get much harder for him this week against the Braves and the Red Sox as both teams are in the top-six in baseball in runs scored. The Red Sox have also hit the second-most home runs (128). This has the potential to be a really rough Week 16 for Stroman.
MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 11
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
June special! Use Code PAMLB30 at checkout
If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.
Starters With Favorable Matchups
Luis Severino, New York Yankees: at DET, at NYM
The Yankees potent lineup gets the majority of the headlines, but Severino is just as important as anyone on the team. He put together a breakout campaign in 2017, finishing with a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a 10.7 K/9. He’s been even better through his first 12 starts this year with a 2.31 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and a 10.6 K/9. His average fastball velocity is 98.2 mph and he has thrown a first-pitch strike to an impressive 70.1% of the batters that he has faced. The Mets are tied for the fourth-fewest runs scored (230) in baseball and the Tigers lineup has been middle of the pack, leaving Severino with the potential for an extremely valuable week.
Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals: vs. MIA, at CIN
Martinez has not pitched in almost a month due to a strained lat, but he will be activated from the disabled list Tuesday. He had a sparkling 1.62 ERA before the injury, but his 3.35 FIP and .237 opponents BABIP indicate he has been a bit lucky. The FIP is still good, though, and he’s only allowed one home run in 50 innings. His first start of the week comes against a Marlins team that has scored the fewest runs (196) in baseball. The Reds are certainly better offensively, but Martinez has already faced them twice this year, throwing 13 scoreless innings while recording 18 strikeouts. Get him right back into your lineup.
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs: vs. PHI, vs. PIT
Hendricks isn’t a big strikeout pitcher with a 7.6 K/9 for his career. He doesn’t walk many hitters and does a good job keeping runners off base in general, which has helped him quietly become a very successful pitcher. He’s off to another good start this year with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He doesn’t get hit hard often, allowing more than three earned runs in a game only one time this season. The Phillies are in the bottom-third of the league in runs scored and while the Pirates have scored more runs, Hendricks has held them to four runs in 11 innings in their first two meetings this year.
Nick Tropeano, Los Angeles Angels: vs. KC, at MIN
Tropeano missed the entire 2017 season after having Tommy John surgery and hasn’t made more than 13 starts in a season during his career. He’s been able to make eight starts so far this year, posting a 3.80 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. His 4.91 FIP and 1.6 HR/9 are a bit concerning, limiting his upside over the course of the season. This is setting up to be a nice week for him, though, against the Royals and Twins as neither team scores a ton of runs. He has already faced both teams once this season, throwing 6.2 scoreless innings and recording six strikeouts against the Royals while allowing three runs to go along with two strikeouts in six innings against the Twins. Tropeano is still available in 82% of Yahoo! leagues and is a viable streaming option.
Starters to Avoid
Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks: at SF, at COL
Godley isn’t off to a great start with a 4.38 ERA and a 4.44 FIP through 11 outings. His success last year was in large part due to his 1.14 WHIP, which has ballooned to 1.54 this year. His .316 BABIP allowed isn’t much higher than his career mark, which is not good news for his value moving forward. His first matchup this week against the Giants is not bad, but his second outing in Coors Field could be a nightmare. That game alone is a reason to keep him on your bench in Week 11.
Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres: vs. ATL, at MIA
It’s been another underwhelming season for Richard, who has a 4.74 ERA and a 4.14 FIP in 12 starts. His 1.31 WHIP isn’t terrible, but he has very little strikeout upside with a 5.9 K/9 for his career. His second start this week against the Marlins is a great matchup, but don’t get too excited about him as a streaming option. The Braves are not only tied for the fourth-most runs scored (293) in baseball, but they also have the highest OPS against lefties (.806). Since he likely won’t provide a lot of strikeouts even in his start against the Marlins, it might be best to avoid him altogether.
Jason Vargas, New York Mets: vs. BAL, vs. NYY
Vargas won a career-high 18 games for the Royals last year and made the All-Star team for the first time. He moved to the Mets in the offseason but he has been limited to six starts due to injury. He was hammered in his first three outings but hasn’t given up a run in two of his last three starts. One of those came against the Braves, which is particularly impressive considering their success against lefties. Even with his recent success, you still want to stay away from streaming him this week. The Orioles aren’t exactly imposing, but the Yankees have the second-highest OPS against lefties (.799) and can still do a ton of damage even without the luxury of having the DH playing at Citi Field.
MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 7
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 7
Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout
Injuries to starting pitchers are starting to pile up around baseball, the latest of which saw both Jacob deGrom (elbow) and Clayton Kershaw (biceps) land on the DL. Your starting fantasy staff might not be as strong as a result. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.
Starters With Favorable Matchups
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies: vs. SF, vs. NYM
Nola has followed up his breakout campaign last year with a 2.17 ERA, 2.98 FIP, and 0.92 WHIP through seven starts. His K/9 is only 6.9, but expect that to increase sooner rather than later since he has finished with a K/9 of at least 9.8 in back-to-back seasons. He has been a bit lucky with opponents posting a .236 BABIP, but he has thrown a first-pitch strike to 65.7% of the batters that he has faced and has a 33.2% O-swing % (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone), both of which would be career highs. The Giants and Mets are both in the bottom 10 in the league in runs scored, leaving Nola with the potential for a great week.
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs: vs. MIA, vs. CWS
Hendricks has a 3.19 ERA and 1.09 WHIP this season, but a deeper diver indicates he has not pitched that well. His FIP sits at 5.31 and opponents have just a .223 BABIP. He’s been victimized by the long ball as well, allowing eight home runs in 36.2 innings. He only has a 0.9 HR/9 for his career, so expect some improvement from him in that area as the season wears on. He has already faced the Marlins once this season, allowing one earned run to go along with five strikeouts in six innings. The Marlins have also hit the fewest home runs (24) in baseball, which should help Hendricks with his homer problems. He also has the benefit of facing the White Sox at home, so he won’t have to face the designated hitter. Although he’s not a big strikeout pitcher, look for a valuable week from Hendricks.
Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles: vs. KC, vs. TB
Bundy has been unlucky this season, allowing a .345 BABIP to opposing hitters. It’s resulted to a 1.35 WHIP, but his 10.6 K/9 has helped offset the issue and result in a 3.76 ERA and 3.67 FIP. His increased K/9 can be attributed to his career-high marks in both O-swing % (38.2%) and swinging strike percentage (15.6%). He’s been roughed up in his last two outings, but that’s mainly because he allowed five home runs after giving up just one long ball in his first five starts combined. The Royals and Rays are both in the bottom 10 in the league in OPS against right-handed pitching this season, so look for Bundy to rebound in Week 7.
Sean Newcomb, Atlanta Braves: at TB, at MIA
Newcomb was lined up to start twice last week, but the Braves altered their rotation by calling up promising rookie Mike Soroka. Newcomb now gets his two starts in Week 7 and will look to continue his excellent start to the season. He had control issues last year with a 5.1 BB/9, but he’s cut that down to 3.9 this season, some of which can be attributed to him throwing a first-pitch strike to 64.8% of the batters that he has faced. He also provides excellent strikeout upside with a 10.9 K/9. Newcomb has been a better pitcher on the road during his Major League career, posting a 3.23 ERA compared to a 4.79 ERA at home. Amazingly, he’s still available in 51% of Yahoo! leagues, so he would make an excellent pickup this week if you can grab him.
Starters to Avoid
Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals: at BAL, at CLE
Duffy is not off to a great start with a 5.63 ERA and 5.61 FIP through seven outings. He’s had a problem keeping runners off base with a 1.49 WHIP, but his opponents .292 BABIP is not high by any means. He is giving up a lot of solid contact with a 41% hard-hit rate that is almost 10 percentage points higher than his career mark. His BB/9 and HR/9 are both up as well, which is not a recipe for success. The Orioles only have a .629 OPS this season against right-handed pitchers but have hit lefties much better with a .720 OPS. The Indians are also in the top 10 in baseball in terms of runs scored overall, meaning this might be the week to put Duffy on your bench.
Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays: vs. SEA, vs. BOS
Stroman couldn’t be off to a much worse start, recording a 7.52 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. His opponents .330 BABIP isn’t a lot higher than his .307 career BABIP allowed and he’s had significant control issues with a 4.5 BB/9. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, so he can’t afford to continue throwing a first-pitch strike to just 56.7% of the batters that he has faced this season. The Mariners and Red Sox are both in the top eight in the league in OPS against righties, so this could be a rough week for Stroman.
Jose Urena, Miami Marlins: at CHC, vs. ATL
Urena isn’t having a terrible season despite his 0-5 record, posting a 4.28 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He doesn’t have much strikeout upside with just a 7.2 K/9 and his 43.1% hard-hit rate allowed is concerning as well. This week brings two very tough matchups, the first of which comes against a Cubs squad that scored five runs in four innings against him on opening day. He then has to face a Braves team that has scored the third-most runs in baseball, so this could be a bad week to take a chance on him in your lineup.
MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Playoffs – Tuesday, October 17, 2017
*Austyn Varney*
MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Playoffs – Tuesday, October 17, 2017
Put your favorite MLB daily fantasy baseball lineup stacks from the article below in our MLB Lineup Optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the MLB Player Lab.
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees
Match-Up – Brad Peacock Vs Sonny Gray
Park – Yankee Stadium
Vegas – N/A
Pitchers
Lance McCullers Jr.
Brad Peacock was the projected starter here for a few days, but it looks like the Astros will make a last-second pivot to Lance McCullers. While McCullers is a much better pitcher at the peak of his game, we have no idea if he will be there. He’s been injured and up and down all year long, but did hold a 2.67 xFIP and 11+ K/9 when he was on the mound. The Yankees took a game back last night and will look to even it up. They have the bombers in Judge/Sanchez, but the strikeouts make them well worth it. All in all, these 4 pitchers are in a somewhat comparable spot. None are safe and you have to look more at which offense you dislike. The Yankees are explosive as anyone, but their statistically the worst offense by a good margin on this slate. McCullers is a fine play in all formats that comes with the inherent playoff risk.
Sonny Gray
I would like to think I can admit when wrong, but maybe not. I made it a point a couple years back to bask Sonny Gray. It had more to do with an average pitcher like himself getting lucky in Oakland and being looked at as an ace. He then fell back to Earth for 2 years, so everything in the world was right. This year, however, he’s returned with some fire. He’s been effective against both sides of the plate with a .281 wOBA. He’s striking out nearly 9 batters per 9 innings and walking just over 2. He’s a good pitcher by all means and that young guy from Oakland striking out 6 and BABIP’ing teams to death is gone. The big problem comes in the form of the Astros offense. They are swinging a hot stick right now and have one of the more overall lethal lineups in the game. Gray is a stay away for me, but I get the K appeal and low ownership.
Hitters
Lance McCullers and Sonny Gray are 2 excellent pitchers. There’s no getting around that. The problem is these offenses are nearly as good. On the Yankees side, I don’t have much interest. As we’ve already touched on, Sanchez and Judge have immense upside and can put 2 in the seats on any given night. THe rest of the order is pretty volatile with a lot of strikeouts, but I could see getting into Didi Gregorious. He has hit righties to a .372 wOBA on the season and has transferred that to the playoffs quite well. Guys like Brett Gardner, Todd Frazier, and Greg Bird are fine, but they aren’t guys you should be seeking out. I have a bit more interest in the Astros side. While Sony Gray is fine, this lineup is disgusting. Altuve and Correa are looking like the best duo in the league and both ae excellent cash game options with just 2 games. Josh Reddick and George Springer nail righties as well, so don’t leave them off. I will likely be stacking the Astros tonight, so here’s to hoping they get Sonny Gray.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
Match-up – Yu Darvish Vs Kyle Hendricks
Park – Wrigley Field
Vegas – N/A
Pitchers
Yu Darvish
In my opinion, all 4 of these pitchers are very close together. On a set of games like this, any team can go off for no rhyme or reason. One bad pitch. One bad call. All it takes is 1 very volatile event to change the direction of the entire slate. It’s the reason I haven’t played cash games in the playoffs. It will often come down to a 1v1 or 2v2 matchup, which lowers any edge you may have had. On to Yu Darvish, I don’t like him. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a top 10 pitcher in baseball. I just don’t think the Cubs lie on their side and go down 3-0 at home. The lineup is obviously very capable and at home, ranked 3rd with a .332 wOBA against righties. Darvish is an excellent pitcher and if your stance is anti-Cubs, play him. He’s in no more of a drastic spot than any of the other guys. He may end up being the most highly owned, too.
Kyle Hendricks
Kyle Hendricks is quietly one of the best pitchers in baseball. He doesn’t strike many guys out and he doesn’t get past 92, so nobody really pays attention. What he does do, however, is consistently shut down batters from both sides of the plate. He also has one of the best pickoff moves in baseball, which hinders the run a lot better than the other Cubs arms. Hendricks has allowed a .291 wOBA over the year while giving up just a putrid 24% hard contact rate. Now with that being said, this Dodgers lineup is just as lethal as the Cubs. They’re swinging the bat well and I do like them h2h against Hendricks. Personally, McCullers and Hendricks are the 2 guys I will have exposure to. It’s the 2 teams I think to get a W, so it wasn’t tough to pull apart. All in all, every pitcher on this slate is very risky and every offense on this slate is very risky. Welcome, once again, to playoff baseball.
Hitters
At first glance, I think the Dodgers get a lot of attention in Wrigley tonight. Kyle Hendricks has a somewhat bad perception and the Dodgers are killing the baseball. As someone who will own a lot of Kyle Hendricks, I can’t necessarily jump on board. However, I get it. Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger are no fun for righties and I assume Hendricks will have some trouble with both. The rest of the order is filled with guys who can do damage but will more often just piss off the pitcher with 8 pitch at-bats. Hendricks will be on a short leash and the Cubs bullpen is average, so take that into consideration as well. On the Cubs side, I like the usual suspects. Rizzo and Bryant are excessive but have the upside to take you to the promise land. I do think the Cubs get the victory here, so I’ll be waiting for that lineup to come out and picking my spots. Good luck tonight and good luck in opening night NBA!