While there is no shortage of big names at wide receiver for Week 7, there are also several cheaper options who could outproduce their price point.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 – Wide Receivers
Despite four teams being on a bye, Week 6 still brings a loaded group of high-end wide receiver options. Not only that, but there are several cheaper players who could provide significant value.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 – Wide Receivers
The main Sunday afternoon slate in DFS for Week 5 is missing some key names with the Chiefs, Browns and Rams all among the teams who won’t be available.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 12 – Wide Receivers
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
The Chiefs and Rams being on byes take away some of the top wide receivers for Week 12, but there are still some great options that stand out at the position in DFS. Let’s highlight a few across the price scale that are worth considering. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Antonio Brown vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $8,500
DraftKings = $8,700
The Steelers were down 16-0 against the Jaguars on Sunday but stormed back for a big win on the road. Brown wasn’t exactly efficient by catching five of 13 targets, but he turned in a season-high 117 receiving yards and a touchdown. The yardage total is especially impressive when you consider how well the Jaguars have defended against the pass this season. They’ve allowed just 14 passing touchdowns, as well.
The Broncos aren’t exactly a pushover, either, but they have given up 18 touchdowns through the air. Brown not only leads the Steelers with 109 targets but that mark also ranks third in the entire league. Add in his 11 touchdown receptions and he has one of the highest floors of any receiver in DFS, especially during a week with Tyreek Hill and the Rams receivers unavailable.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $8,500
DraftKings = $8,800
The Giants regrouped during their bye week and have now won two straight games for the first time since December of 2016. They scored at least 27 points in both wins with Beckham leading the charge for their receiver group. After catching four passes for 73 yards and two touchdowns in Week 10, Beckham followed that up with four receptions for 74 yards and another touchdown in Week 11.
Likely the biggest reason for the Giants offensive explosion has been their opponents. They faced the 49ers and Bucs, who have combined to allow 46 touchdown passes. The Eagles overall numbers aren’t nearly as bad, but their secondary is decimated right now by injuries. That led the Saints to score 48 points against them in Week 11. Eli Manning is no Drew Brees and this game is at home for the Eagles, but this is a matchup where Beckham could feast.
Mike Evans vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $7,700
The Bucs were in catch-up mode against the Giants last week, which helped Evans put up some big numbers during the second half. He finished the game with six catches for 120 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. The Bucs will be making yet another quarterback change for this contest, but Evans certainly has a long-standing relationship with Jameis Winston, so don’t expect it to negatively impact his value.
The thing you love about Evans is that you know he’s going to have plenty of opportunities to produce. Not only is he the Bucs top wide receiver, but their defense gives up a ton of points. This requires their offense to throw a lot to try and keep pace. This is a matchup to exploit against a 49ers secondary that has allowed 21 touchdown passes and recorded just two interceptions all season.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Tyler Boyd vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $6,000
Boyd was the Bengals primary pass catcher again in Week 11 with A.J. Green (toe) on the sidelines. He received 11 targets in that contest, marking his second-highest total of the season. However, he wasn’t able to cash in on his opportunity, catching just four passes for 71 yards. He also failed to score a touchdown for the second straight week, which is somewhat surprising since Green missed both of those contests.
Green will likely return for Week 12, which might actually be a good thing for Boyd. He’ll no longer be the focal point of the opposing team’s defense, setting him up with a better chance to shine against lesser cornerbacks. The Browns do have 13 interceptions this year, but they’ve also allowed the third-most passing yards per game (288). While not a completely safe option at this price, Boyd could be in line for a bounce-back performance.
Doug Baldwin vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Bank of American Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,100
Baldwin is going to need to make a late push if he’s going to get at least 100 targets for the fourth straight season. Injuries left him to start off slowly, but he’s finally showing signs of turning things around with some improved health. He had his best performance of the year in Week 11, catching seven of 10 targets for 52 yards and a touchdown. That marked the first time he’s received double-digit targets in a game and his first touchdown.
If Baldwin really is past his injury issues, he could be in for a monster finish. One of the more encouraging stats from his Week 11 performance is that he received three red zone targets. The Panthers haven’t given up a ton of yards through the air, but they have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns (23). This might be the time to take advantage by putting Baldwin in your lineup before his price starts to climb.
Larry Fitzgerald vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $5,000
Is there anyone happier than Larry Fitzgerald that the Cardinals made a change at offensive coordinator? Other than David Johnson, probably not. In three games since Byron Leftwich took over, Fitzgerald has compiled 26 targets, 16 receptions, 175 yards, and three touchdowns. Across his first seven games, he had a total of 41 targets, 26 receptions, 255 yards, and one touchdown.
It should be noted that his increased production could also be a product of an easier schedule. He has played the 49ers, Chiefs, and Raiders across his last three contests, none of which defend the pass well. Facing the Chargers won’t be as easy with them allowing 15 touchdown passes compared to 10 interceptions. With that being said, Fitzgerald should still see enough volume to at least be worth considering in tournament play.
Marquise Goodwin vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $5,600
There are few people who were as high as I was on Goodwin heading into this season. He was coming off of a great 2017 campaign and looked poised to break out with Jimmy Garopplo at quarterback. However, injuries hit the 49ers early and often, the most significant of which was losing Garoppolo to a torn ACL. Goodwin has battled plenty of his own injury concerns, leaving him with just 17 catches for 339 yards.
If you’re looking for a silver lining with Goodwin, he does have four touchdown receptions. He also caught four passes for 69 yards against the Giants in Week 10 and has now had the benefit of a bye week to rest up. If there was ever a game for him to break out, this is it. The Bucs have allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game (282) and are tied for the most touchdown passes allowed (25), making Goodwin an extremely appealing option at this price.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Keenan Allen vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $7,700
DraftKings = $7,100
This is more about Allen’s matchup than anything else. He’s playing really well right now with touchdowns in back-to-back games and he has 87 targets already. However, the Cardinals boast a strong secondary that contains star cornerback Patrick Peterson. They’ve allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (218), making Allen a risky option at this price. I’d much rather roll with Mike Evans if you looking for someone in a similar price range as Allen.
Golden Tate vs. New York Giants
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $4,800
After barely playing in Week 10 against the Cowboys, Tate was on the field for 71 percent of the Eagles offensive snaps in Week 11. He didn’t put up a great performance, though, with five catches for 48 yards on eight targets. The Eagles are still working him into their offense, but even in the best case scenario, he’s likely their third receiving option behind Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery. His price on DraftKings isn’t terrible, but he seems like a reach based on his price on FanDuel.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 11 – Wide Receivers
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
Six teams are on a bye during Week 11, but none of them have as much of an impact on the wide receiver position for the main Sunday afternoon slate in DFS as the Packers, Chiefs, Rams, and Vikings all playing in prime time. There are still a lot of quality options, though, so let’s dig into the position to see which matchups stand out. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Michael Thomas vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,800
The Saints exploded for 51 points against the Bengals last week, so it’s no surprise that Thomas had a big game. He caught all eight of the targets thrown his way for 70 yards and two touchdowns. After scoring five touchdowns all last season, he already has seven through his first nine games. He also has an insane 89.7 percent catch rate, leaving him just 50 yards shy of reaching 1,000 yards for the third straight year.
The Eagles have only allowed 12 passing touchdowns this season, but they have allowed the 10th-most passing yards per game (266). Their secondary also received a significant blow when cornerback Ronald Darby was lost to a torn ACL. With the Saints firing on all cylinders offensively, they could put up plenty of points in a hurry in this contest. Thomas is tied for the league lead with 78 receptions, so expect him to have another great performance.
Julio Jones vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $8,500
There has never been any question about Jones’ workload with his 102 targets tied for the third-most in the league. He’s already posted 1,040 receiving yards, marking his fifth straight season with at least 1,000 yards. The only issue has been his incredible inability to score touchdowns. However, he finally found the end zone in Week 9, then followed that up with another score last week against the Browns.
If you’re just looking at the opponent, this does not stand out as a great matchup for Jones. The Cowboys have a good pass defense and have only allowed 12 touchdown receptions all season. However, Jones has such a heavy volume of passes thrown his way that it’s hard to slow him down. If he can continue to find his way into the end zone, the sky is the limit in terms of his value. Even if he doesn’t again Sunday, he still has a high enough floor to be worth considering in cash contests.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $8,500
DraftKings = $8,400
It’s been a frustrating season for Beckham and the Giants offense. He’s still put up some big yardage totals, but he entered Week 10 with just two touchdown receptions. A matchup against the 49ers turned out to be just what the doctored ordered with the Giants scoring 27 points and Beckham hauling in two scores. Even though he finished with four receptions for 73 yards, his day actually could have been even better since he had 11 targets.
A surprising as this may be, Beckham actually has as many targets as Jones does. Having Eli Manning as his quarterback is going to continue to limit his upside, but that doesn’t mean you should shy away from him at this lofty price. The Bucs have been horrible against the pass, allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (292) and the most passing touchdowns (23). As long as the Giants offensive line can keep Manning upright, he should look Beckham’s way enough to make him a safe option.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Alshon Jeffery vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $6,300
Jeffery had a quiet performance against the Cowboys last week with only four catches for 48 yards. On the bright side, he received eight targets and was on the field for 97 percent of their offensive snaps. New wide receiver Golden Tate wasn’t involved much in his debut with the team, only appearing on the field for 29 percent of their snaps. That number seems likely to rise as he gets more familiar with their offense, but it’s clear that Jeffery is still their top option at the position moving forward.
Tight end Zach Ertz will eat into Jeffery’s production from time to time, but Jeffery has four touchdowns in just six games and has a career-high 63.5 percent catch rate. The Eagles offense has had its struggles, but they will likely have to throw a lot Sunday to keep up with the Saints. That could lead to a banner performance from Jeffery since the Saints allow the second-most passing yards per game (296).
Kenny Golladay vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Ford Field
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $5,800
The trade of Tate to the Eagles opens up an even larger role for Golladay. He was great in Week 10 against the Bears, catching 6 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. Marvin Jones (knee) also had to depart that game early, which led Golladay to receive a season-high 13 targets. Golladay has now been on the field for 90 percent of the Lions offensive snaps his season, which is tops among their skill position players.
Jones is luckily just dealing with a bone bruise in his knee, but his status is still in question for this contest against the Panthers. If he can’t play, Golladay is going to be extremely busy. Even if Jones is able to take the field, Golladay is going to be heavily involved due to Tate no longer being in town. The Panthers have struggled in the secondary, allowing the second-most touchdown passes through the air (22).
Larry Fitzgerald vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $5,600
The first two games with Byron Leftwich as the Cardinals offensive coordinator has provided immediate dividends for Fitzgerald. After receiving 41 targets across seven games with Mike McCoy at the helm of their offense, Fitzgerald has received 22 targets over two games since. He’s made the most of his added opportunities, posting 14 receptions, 152 yards, and a touchdown.
Another encouraging sign for the Fitzgerald is that he was on the field for at least 96 percent of the Cardinals offensive snaps in the two weeks under Leftwich. He had logged no more than 87 percent of their offensive snaps in three of his previous four contests. The Raiders get virtually no pressure on opposing quarterbacks and have allowed 21 passing touchdowns, potentially setting up Fitzgerald for a big game.
Tre’Quan Smith vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $4,000
With the Saints putting up 51 points last week, it is surprising that Smith wasn’t even targeted once in that contest. He was on the field for 68 percent of their offensive snaps, which was more than any other wide receiver, including Michael Thomas (61 percent). Don’t expect him to out snap Thomas moving forward, but last week illustrates the potential that Smith could have if the Saints decided to throw more passes his way.
The Saints just signed Brandon Marshall to provide some depth at wide receiver, but Smith should still be their second best option at the position moving forward. His lack of targets is concerning, which is why you should only consider him in tournament play. However, if this game turns into a shootout, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Smith provide value at this dirt cheap price.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Mike Evans vs. New York Giants
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $7,300
It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Evans. He received 10 targets in Week 9, but only caught one pass for 16 yards. He managed to post 51 yards in Week 10 but caught only three of six targets. This brief rough stretch is especially surprising considering how well he played with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback to start the year. Don’t expect him to struggle like this for the remainder of the season, but this isn’t a good opportunity for him to turn things around against the Giants. They’ve dealt away a couple of their key defenders, but they still have cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who has helped them allow just 12 passing touchdowns this season. At this lofty price, Evans is awfully risky.
Tyrell Williams vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $4,800
After four touchdowns across his previous three games, Williams was finally shut out of the end zone by the Raiders in Week 10. He’s only received 36 targets all season, so a lot of his value depends on him scoring touchdowns. With Keenan Allen the top option at wide receiver for the Chargers and Melvin Gordon thriving in the backfield, don’t expect Williams to receive a significant jump in targets anytime soon, either.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 10 – Wide Receivers
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
With the Vikings and Texans on byes and the Steelers and Giants both playing in prime time games, a lot of the top talent at wide receiver won’t be available for the main slate in DFS for Week 10. Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players to target, and some to possibly avoid, as you create your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Michael Thomas vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $8,100
Thomas got off to a blistering start this season with at least 10 targets and 10 receptions in each of his first three games. During that stretch, he had a total of 398 yards and three touchdowns. His production dropped off significantly starting in Week 4 but he rebounded to post 211 yards and a touchdown Sunday in a shootout against the Rams. It’s no coincidence that he received 15 targets, which were his most in a game since Week 4.
The Saints have a great running back duo of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, which could limit Thomas’ production from time to time if the Saints take a run-heavy approach. This could end up being a blowout against a far inferior Bengals team, but don’t shy away from Thomas just because there could be a lot of run calls in the second half. The Bengals allow the most passing yards per game (319) in the league, making Thomas a great option in cash games.
Keenan Allen vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $7,100
Although Allen hasn’t been as productive as he was last year, it was going to be hard to duplicate the 159 targets that he received in 2017. The good news is he still has 66 targets through eight games, 10 of which came in Week 9 against the Seahawks. Normally a good defense against the pass, the Seahawks allowed Allen to rack up six receptions for 124 yards.
One area of disappointment for Allen has been his lack of touchdowns. He found his way into the end zone in Week 1 but hasn’t scored since. That’s a significant stat for someone who had six touchdowns last year. This could be the week he breaks that streak, though, with the Raiders tied for the second-most passing touchdowns allowed (19) in the league. In their first meeting this season, Allen was plenty involved with eight catches on nine targets for 90 yards.
Tyler Boyd vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $7,800
DraftKings = $7,500
The Bengals found themselves in a high-scoring affair with the Bucs in Week 7, leaving Boyd with a team-high 10 targets. He sure made the most of his opportunities, catching nine passes for 138 yards and a touchdown. After posting 225 total receiving yards across 10 games last year, Boyd already has three games with at least 100 receiving yards this season.
Boyd had already worked his way into a significant role, but he’s now the Bengals top wide receiver with A.J. Green (toe) out for at least two games. Even with Boyd’s emergence, Green is still leading the team with 76 targets, so that’s a lot to make up for. This Bengals might also be forced to throw a ton to keep up with the Saints high-powered offense, potentially setting up Boyd for another monster day.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Mike Evans vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $7,000
The Bucs scored 28 points against the Panthers in Week 9 and Evans received 10 targets. He must have dominated, right? Unfortunately for his sake, and for the sake of everyone who played him in DFS, Evans actually had a disastrous performance with one catch for 16 yards. That marked the first time this season that Evans has finished with fewer than five receptions and 58 yards in a game.
Don’t overact to one fluky performance. The fact that Evans received 10 targets is the key takeaway. Across the first four games in which Evans received at least 10 targets this year, he averaged 7.3 receptions and 125.6 yards. He scored three total touchdowns in those games, as well. The Redskins have been great against the run this year, but their pass defense is suspect. Both sites dropped Evans’ price tag after last week’s dud, leaving a prime opportunity to take advantage of for your entry.
Cooper Kupp vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $6,400
Kupp had sat out the previous two games due to a knee injury, but he was able to take the field Sunday against the Saints. He certainly wasn’t eased back into action as he was on the field for every one of the Rams offensive plays. Even with so many weapons around him, Kupp had another valuable performance with five receptions on six targets for 89 yards and a touchdown. Although he’s only played in seven games, Kupp has already set a new career-high with six touchdowns.
It was great to see Kupp at full go in his first game back. He’s had a couple of games this season where he’s had to leave early due to injury, one of them was against these same Seahawks in Week 5 due to a concussion. Despite only playing 55 percent of the snaps in that contest, Kupp still finished with six catches for 90 yards and a touchdown. At this very reasonable price, Kupp is a great option to consider.
Larry Fitzgerald vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $5,400
The Cardinals offense has been horrible for most of the year, which has really put a cap on Fitzgerald’s upside. After receiving at least 145 targets in three straight seasons, Fitzgerald only had 41 targets across his first seven games. The Cardinals mercifully fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, which immediately provided positive results for Fitzgerald. In his first game with Byron Leftwich at the helm of their offense, Fitzgerald had eight receptions on 12 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers.
With a bye in Week 9, the Cardinals had even more time to get their new offense up to speed. Leftwich has already stated that he wanted to get Fitzgerald and David Johnson more involved, so don’t be surprised if you see dramatically better production from both players over the second half. Week 10 stands out as an opportunity for Fitzgerald to shine against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game (303).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Lambeau Field
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $5,000
The Packers seemed pretty well set at wide receiver heading into the year with the trio of Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, and Geronimo Allison. As a result, Valdes-Scantling was relegated to a very limited role out of the gate. After injuries started to mount, the Packers had no choice but to turn to their young receiver for production. Not only has he held his own, but Valdes-Scantling has shined in his added playing time with at least 101 receiving yards in two of his last three games.
Valdes-Scantling was already pressing for more snaps, but he has a secure role now with Allison being placed on IR earlier this week. Cobb might carry more name recognition, but Valdes-Scantling could be the Packers number two wide receiver for the rest of the year. With Aaron Rodgers throwing him passes, he’s hard to pass up in tournament play at this cheap price.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
T.Y. Hilton vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $7,000
DraftKings = $5,700
The Colts scored 42 points against the Raiders in their last game Week 8, but Hilton was pretty quiet with only one catch on five targets for 34 yards. That marked the fourth time in his six games that Hilton has finished with 50 or fewer receiving yards. The Jaguars defense hasn’t been as formidable this year, but they’ve still allowed the fewest passing yards per game (190). They’ve only allowed nine touchdown passes, as well, leaving Hilton as a very risky option.
Randall Cobb vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Lambeau Field
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $4,900
Cobb started out the season with 142 yards against the Bears in Week 1, but he has a total of 116 yards across four games since. If it wasn’t for the injury to Allison, there was an argument to be made for Valdes-Scantling to receive more playing time over Cobb. Cobb should be on the field plenty moving forward, but he might not get a ton of passes thrown his way with all of the other options that Rodgers has. If you want to take a chance on a cheap Packers receiver, Cobb is not the one you want.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 – Wide Receivers
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Early bird special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
There were 20 wide receivers who came away with at least 100 receiving yards in Week 4, including four that had over 160 yards. There are plenty of great matchups in Week 5 to exploit, as well. Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players to target, and some to possibly avoid, as you create your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Julio Jones vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,500
After scoring a measly three touchdowns in 2017, Jones has failed to reach the end zone across the first four games this year. The Falcons have only targeted Jones three times inside the red zone, which equates to 13.6% of their opportunities. To put that into perspective, other star receivers around the league who have received a higher percentage include Jarvis Landry (60%), Davante Adams (44.4%) and A.J. Green (36%).
The good news is that Jones has already amassed 29 receptions for 502 yards. His 46 targets are tied for fourth-most in the league. This should be a high-scoring game between two teams that have potent offenses and porous defenses. Jones might continue to struggle to score touchdowns, but with all the targets he receives, he still has a high floor in DFS.
Adam Thielen vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $8,300
DraftKings = $7,700
Like Jones, Thielen struggled to find the end zone last year with only four scores despite hauling in 91 passes. Unlike Jones, Thielen hasn’t had similar issues this season, recording two touchdowns already. Although the Vikings have another extremely talented wide receiver in Stefon Diggs, it hasn’t stopped Thielen from leading the league with 56 targets. He hasn’t let those opportunities go to waste, posting 40 receptions for 473 yards.
Diggs might have the higher touchdown upside, but there is plenty of room within this offense for both players to be extremely productive every week. If anything, having the two of them makes it so opposing defenses can’t key in on either one of them. The Eagles defense has been stout against the run, but they are vulnerable in the passing game. Start Thielen with confidence.
JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,500
Smith-Schuster is coming off of his quietest performance of the season in Week 4, catching four passes for 60 yards. On a positive note, he did receive 11 targets in that contest and has received at least eight targets in all four games. His 49 total targets rank third in the league behind Thielen and his own teammate, Antonio Brown. Smith-Schuster’s 416 receiving yards also rank eighth, significantly ahead of Brown’s 272 yards.
Having Brown playing alongside him certainly takes some of the pressure off of Smith-Schuster. The Steelers are also still without the services of Le’Veon Bell, who catches a ton of passes out of the backfield. Based on how poorly the Steelers defense has played, they’ve had to throw the ball a lot to try and keep pace offensively. Scoring should be abundant in this contest, leaving Smith-Schuster with significant upside.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Tyler Boyd vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $5,700
The Bengals offense has been firing on all cylinders this season, scoring at least 34 points in three of four games. Andy Dalton has been a different quarterback, averaging 299.3 passing yards per game compared to 207.5 passing yards per game in 2017. One of the main beneficiaries of their offensive explosion has been Boyd, who has at least 91 receiving yards in three straight games. He received a staggering 15 targets in Week 4, hauling in 11 of them for 100 yards.
With defenses having to worry about A.J. Green, Boyd has shown he can be a viable secondary receiver. He should be even more heavily involved going forward after the Bengals lost tight end Tyler Eifert for the season due to an ankle injury. Eifert had 15 receptions on 19 targets so far this year. The Dolphins have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game (285) heading into this matchup, making Boyd an excellent play at this reasonable price.
John Brown vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $5,600
Speaking of offenses who have been far more productive this season, the Ravens are averaging 30.8 points per contest. Injuries contributed to Brown appearing in only 10 games last year and he posted a dismal 38.2% catch rate when he was on the field. The Ravens added Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead to their wide receiver corps this year, but the emergence of Brown might be the biggest reason for their improved scoring output. His 50% catch rate still isn’t great, but his average of 22.5 yards per reception has helped him total 338 yards and three touchdowns.
Week 5 brings a matchup against a Browns team that has made some improvements on defense but was destroyed by Derek Carr last week for 437 yards and four touchdowns. Michael Crabtree leads the team with 36 targets, but he doesn’t have nearly the explosive upside that Brown does, averaging 10.2 yards per reception. If you plan to utilize a Ravens stack with Flacco as your quarterback, Brown is the top choice to pair with him in tournament play.
Dede Westbrook vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $4,700
Westbrook hasn’t had the most consistent of starts. He has posted 51 receiving yards or fewer in two of four games, but he recorded at least 82 yards in both of the other two contests. A lot of that falls on the shoulders of Blake Bortles, who threw for fewer than 180 yards in both of Westbrook’s unproductive games. The good news for Westbrook is that he leads the team with 28 targets.
The Jaguars have a great defense, but they will be tested this week by the Chiefs. If they can’t hold down Patrick Mahomes and company, the Jaguars might be forced to throw the ball more than usual. The loss of Leonard Fournette to a hamstring injury won’t help their running game, either. Westbrook doesn’t carry a lot of touchdown potential, but he should get enough passes thrown his way to be a viable option for your entry.
Jordy Nelson vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $5,600
DraftKings = $4,500
Nelson’s first two games as a Raider did not go well, catching five of eight targets for 53 yards. He had his first big performance with his new team in Week 3, catching six passes for 173 yards and a touchdown. That yardage total was certainly a fluke and he came back down to Earth with 48 yards in Week 4. However, he chipped in another touchdown reception and received eight targets for the second time in as many weeks.
Amari Cooper is clearly the top wide receiver for the Raiders, but he hasn’t exactly been reliable, either. One player who has emerged as a productive part of the passing game is tight end Jared Cook, who already has 370 receiving yards after finishing with 688 yards in all of 2017. The Chargers defense hasn’t lived up to expectations so far this year, allowing 10 touchdown passes through the first four weeks. Nelson is very much a boom-or-bust option, but he’s intriguing in tournament play at this cheap price.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Larry Fitzgerald vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,700
The normally reliable Fitzgerald hasn’t been immune to the Cardinals offensive struggles, posting only 15 receptions and 141 receiving yards through four games. His streak of three straight seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards is very much in doubt. To make matters worse, he’s currently battling a hamstring injury. Even if he does tough it out and play Sunday, he’ still someone to stay away from when crafting your entry.
Devin Funchess vs. New York Giants
Stadium – Bank of America Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $5,200
Funchess emerged as the Panthers top wide receiver last year and is off to another solid start with 14 receptions and 185 yards through three games. The loss of tight end Greg Olsen to yet another foot injury has opened up even more opportunities for Funchess to be productive. Unfortunately for Funchess, he’ll be matched up against standout cornerback Janoris Jenkins on Sunday, who helped limit Saints star receiver Michael Thomas to four catches and 47 yards last week.
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 16
*Cesar Becerra*
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 16
We’re down to the final two weeks of the regular season, that means that we’ll have to monitor team reporters much closer than we usually would have to on Sunday morning. We could see instances where teams that have already clinched playoff berths/bye rest regulars. And we can also see a situation like the Packers where Aaron Rodgers was placed on IR after Green Bay was eliminated from postseason contention.
This applies more next week (week 17) than this week. But we could see a case where the Eagles get a little conservative if they clinch a first-round bye (PHI clinch a first-round bye with Vikings loss on Saturday). Let’s dive right in.
With no more Thursday Night or Sunday Night games, we are left with two Saturday games and two Monday Night games this week, but none of those games are on the Draftkings main slate. The Draftkings main slate features a 12-game slate and is Sunday only games.
Vegas
The Draftkings main slate has only one game with a game total over 50. The Falcons visiting the Saints line is currently sitting with a 52.5 over/under. The next games with the highest game totals are the Rams at Titans (48), Seahawks at Cowboys (47), Bills at Patriots (47), and Panthers at Bucs (46.5). Outside of those five games, no other game has a total over 45 points.
Regarding implied team totals, they are headlined by several of the teams I mentioned above. The Pats (29.75) and Saints (29) lead the way with over a four-touchdown implied total, but the Panthers (28.25), Rams (27.25), and Chiefs (27) are not that far behind. Some other teams with decent team totals are the Cowboys (26), Chargers (24.5), Lions (24). The Falcons (23.5) and Jags (23) round out the top ten of teams with the highest implied total.
In terms of game script, we have three teams that are double-digit favorites. The Pats are 12.5 points favorites at home against the Bills. The Chiefs are 10.5 point home favorites against the Dolphins. And lastly, the Panthers are 10 points favorites over the Bucs (this line is very interesting because the line initially opened at Panthers (-4) and has since moved 6 points). Outside of those huge favorites, the Chargers (-6.5), Bears (-6.5), and Rams (-6.5) all opened up as more than a touchdown favorite, but have since dipped below.
All this Vegas Data was taken as of Wednesday night, so I strongly suggest checking back on Vegas Insiders on Sunday morning.
Quarterbacks
Quarterback pricing is relatively even this week. The top 11 quarterbacks are all priced within $1,000 of each other with Russell Wilson ($7,000) leading the way and Dak Prescott ($6,000) rounding out the lower 6k range.
Drew Brees ($6,500) – It’s tough to choose between the top 5 priced quarterbacks, they are all in pretty good spots. I think due to recency bias Cam will be the most popular among that tier. I’m hedging from the slightly higher owned Cam for a cheaper Drew Brees. I like Brees for the $300 savings from Newton and the fact that his game has a higher game total (52.5 vs. 46.5) as well as a closer spread (-5.5 vs. -10). The Falcons and Saints games have traditionally turned into a shootout over the last three seasons, and Brees has crushed each time. Brees is a perfect 3 for 3 at exceeding his salary at home against the Falcons in their last 3 meetings at the Superdome. I know that the Saints have transitioned to a running team with their 2-headed monster, but I like taking my chances with Brees against Atlanta who ranks 20th against QB in aFPA. I get it that Cam has the safer floor, but when Brees is in the right matchup, he has the highest ceiling of any QB in the league.
Dak Prescott ($6,000) – There’s no mistake about it, Prescott has been awful without Zeke. But now the Cowboys finally get Zeke back after a six-game suspension, so that brings Prescott and the Cowboys offense back into play. Prescott is a home favorite facing a Seahawks defense that ranks 15th in aFPA to opposing QBs. The matchup is far from ideal, but if you’re looking to take a flyer on a quarterback with nice rushing upside, Prescott is your guy. I don’t like him as much as the next guy I mention, but if you’re looking at this salary range, I like his rushing upside.
Kirk Cousins ($5,400) – Yes, this is a bad matchup on paper against the Denver Broncos. But the Broncos aren’t the same feared defense that they were in the past. The Broncos rank in the bottom 5 in the league in passing touchdowns allowed (26) on the season. They still rank atop the league in passing yardage allowed (189) but are at the bottom 6 in the league in interceptions forced (8). Teams are throwing the least against the Broncos (418 attempts), yet 6 of the last 7 QBs to face the Broncos have met salary expectations. The lone exception is Josh McCown who was injured early in the game. I’m not saying you should start Cousins with 100% confidence, but Cousins is at his lowest price of the season and should air it out at least 30 times. Cousins has had some big games at home this season, so I think I’ll take a flyer on him for tournaments.
Cash:
C. Newton, R. Wilson, D. Brees, A. Smith, T. Brady
GPP:
(all of above) K. Cousins, D. Prescott, B. Bortles, M. Stafford
Running backs
Kareem Hunt ($8,400) – Everyone will pay up for Gurley after his 48 point eruption game. Gurley is always in play, so I won’t write him up for the rest of the season. But a pivot off Gurley to save a few hundred bucks is Hunt. Hunt is only a $600 discount, so it’s nothing too crazy, but Hunt is slowly starting to look like how he started off the season. In the last two weeks under a new play caller, Hunt has absolutely smashed. Hunt in his last two games, Hunt has 24 and 25 carries in each game. In those two games, Hunt has 12 targets and 10 receptions totaling 73 yards. Overall he’s scored 3 touchdowns in his last two games, and now he faces the Dolphins who rank 29th in aFPA to opposing running backs. Hunt is a huge home favorite (-10.5) and in another nice spot this week.
Devonta Freeman ($6,500) – Barring any news about Tevin Coleman, Freeman is shaping up to be the highest owned running back on the slate. Freeman is coming off of his best game of the season where he touched the ball 27 times and totaled 194 yards with one rushing touchdown. Freeman’s workload is expected to remain the same, and he’s facing the Saints in which he has killed throughout his career. The Falcons are road underdogs, but this game should stay close, and Freeman could see another 5 targets in a game that has the highest potential to shoot out.
James White ($4,100) – Searching for value, we might have to land on the headache of the Patriots backfield. It’s always a mystery with what Bill Belichick will do with his trio of running backs, but this week we get some clarity. Rex Burkhead will be inactive, and Mike Gillislee ($3,900) is expected to be active for the first time in 5 weeks and should see all the goal-line work. That leaves Dion Lewis ($6,000) and James White ($4,100) in store to get the work in before the Pats reach the 5-yard line. White has seen a fair share of snaps with 45% over the last two games and has also received the most targets in the past four games (15). White figures to see an improved role out of the backfield and will continue to get targets. I like taking a flyer on him at his $4,100 price tag over Lewis.
Cash:
T. Gurley, K. Hunt, D. Freeman, M. Gordon, G. Bernard, A. Kamara, C. McCaffrey.
GPP:
(all of above), E. Elliott, L. McCoy, L. Fournette, P. Barber, J. White
Wide Receiver
A.J. Green ($6,700) – Michael Thomas ($7,600) is likely the highest owned receiver and for a good reason. A.J. Green is a nice pivot off the high priced Thomas. Once again, Green finds himself below 7k, but this time he’s a much better matchup than last week. Green faces the Lions defense that ranks 24th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Erasing last week’s tough matchup with Xavier Rhodes, Green is still seeing close to double-digit targets on average and is seeing 30% of the team’s targets. Green has had a somewhat disappointing season so far, but he always has the potential to go off for 20+ points. Green should come in at single-digit ownership and would be a nice pivot off the heavily owned Thomas.
Larry Fitzgerald ($6,800) – Fitz has 10 targets in 2 of the last 3 games for the Cardinals. This week Fitz goes up against the Giants secondary that is very depleted. The Giants rank 31st in aFPA to wide receivers and the Cards are home favorites. Fitz is a bit discouraging considering that Drew Stanton will be under center, but Fitz will continue to see the majority of the targets from the receiving corp.
Josh Doctson ($3,500) – A value GPP shot in the dark is Josh Doctson. I mentioned in the quarterback section that the Broncos rank in the bottom 5 in the league at allowing passing touchdowns. If you are going to take a shot with Cousins, you should consider stacking him with Doctson. Doctson may not be the possession receiver that Jamison Crowder ($5,000) is, but Doctson leads the team with 33% touchdown percent in the red zone. Doctson doesn’t have a safe floor but has a pretty decent ceiling. If he could find the end zone and catch 3-4 balls, he’ll smash value.
Cash:
M. Thomas, K. Allen, J. Jones, A. Green, L. Fitz, J. Crowder, C. Kupp, R. Matthews, D. Thomas, K. Cole, D. Westbrook,
Gpp:
(All of above), T. Hill, J. Landry, D. Funches, M. Evans, D. Bryant, M. Jones, M. Goodwin, J. Gordon, P. Richardson,
Tight End
Eric Ebron ($3,300) – Ebron has been pretty good since the beginning of November. In his last 7 games, Ebron has 40 targets (5.7/gm) and has 32 catches. That’s good enough for an 80% catch rate. During that span, Ebron also has a pair of touchdowns. This week Ebron is going up against the Bengals who rank 29th in aFPA. In a slate that has very little value, I like Ebron to save some salary.
Antonio Gates ($2,500) – Hunter Henry was placed on IR earlier this week, which signals more opportunity for old man Gates. Gates is the bare minimum and provides salary relief to the roster in studs at other positions. Last week Gates caught his lone red zone target for a 10-yard touchdown. At $2,500 you don’t need much to get four times salary.
Cash:
T. Kelce, E. Ebron, A. Gates, G. Olsen, T. Kroft
GPP:
(All of above), R. Gronkowski, G. Celek
Defense
Carolina Panthers ($3,100) – The Panthers have been on a tear their last two games creating turnovers. In the previous two games against the Packers and Vikings, they have accumulated 9 sacks, 2 fumbles, and 5 interceptions. This week they are huge 10 point favorites at home against the Bucs who are allowing defenses to outscore their implied points projection every time in the past 3 weeks.
Cash:
Panthers, Jacksonville, New England, Kansas City,
Gpp:
(all of above) Arizona, Washington
NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football: Week 6 Cash and GPP Plays
The Week 6 teams on bye aren’t as difficult to overcome compared to last week’s teams. This week the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, and Seattle Seahawks are all on bye. That being said there are a few games that are worth targeting if you are starting your research with Vegas totals. There are 7 games with a game total over 46 points, including the most appealing of them all in New Orleans (50). Let’s take a look at some plays this week from each position.
Quarterback:
As I’ve mentioned throughout this year, quarterback ownership is almost always spread out equally, that there rarely is a QB that we see over 20% owned. That figures to be the case this week with several good options on the slate.
Drew Brees (DK $7,200, FD $8,600) – Brees is surprisingly not the highest priced QB on neither DK or FD. He’s the third priced QB on both sites and is in a pretty damn good spot. If you’re a football fan, you’re well aware of Bree’s home and road splits. Brees has averaged over 300 yards and has had a 2:1 TD to interception ratio in dome stadiums. This week Brees is at home coming off a bye against a Lions team that has been over performing to start the season. To add more frosting to the cake, Brees is a slight home favorite implied to score 27.25 points. This game has the slates highest over/under (50), so Vegas is expecting these two teams to light up the scoreboard. Brees will be popular this week.
Matthew Stafford (DK $ 6,500, FD $8,500) – For all the reasons mentioned in the Brees section, I think Stafford will be popular on this slate. He’s $700 cheaper on DK than Brees so the savings could make him higher owned than Brees, but on FD he’s essentially a pick ‘em with only $100 separating the two. This game is one of the few games with a high total and a relatively close spread so if any game is going to shoot out; it will likely be this one.
Deshaun Watson (DK $6,700, FD $7,900) – Watson is another QB I expect will garnish some ownership based on his recent play. Watson has averaged 31.8 DK points over the past 3 weeks, and his price spike reflects his performance. He does have a good matchup as a home favorite against the Browns who are worst in the league in adjusted fantasy points allowed (26.3). His rushing ability gives him a nice floor for cash games, but in gpps, I like fading him for my favorite quarterback on the week (next player). He’s not a bad play at all, but he’s gotten to be a little too expensive for my taste, especially when you consider that most of his TD production last week came during garbage time against the Chiefs.
Kirk Cousins (DK $6,800, FD $ 7,800) – Cousins is the same price point as the last two QBs I mentioned above, and I feel he will be the least owned, which is why I like him for gpps. Cousins is coming off of a bye week and facing the 49ers who are coming off their second consecutive road overtime loss. Cousins and the Redskins go into week 6 with the highest implied team total (28.8) and are 10.5 point favorites. The 49ers are probably the best winless team in the league, losing 4 games by a combined 11 points, but their secondary can be attacked. Per PFF, the 49ers have 3 of the worst rated corners. Dontae Johnson rated no. 108 of 109, Rashard Robinson is no. 104, and K’Waun Williams is no. 99. The Redskins should be able to attack through the air, especially with Rob Kelly expected to be out.
Bargain Barrel:
Carson Palmer, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett
Running Backs:
Kareem Hunt (DK $8,200, FD $9,300) – I wasn’t going to write up Hunt because by now you should be aware of the amount of volume he’s been getting this season. On DK he’s $1,400 cheap than Bell, which is insane when you factor in that the Chiefs are home favorites over the Steelers. Hunt lost a lot of fantasy points last week with two flukey touchdowns by Charcandrick West. This week Hunt is going up against the Steelers who are 31st DVOA against the run and just got burned for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns from top rookie Leonard Fournette. Hunt is currently projected as our top RB this week over Bell, regardless of price.
Leonard Fournette (DK, $8,000, FD, $8,600) – Speaking of rookies. It’s about time to start talking about Fournette on a consistent basis. He’s averaging 24 touches per game and has scored in all but one game this season. There’s no secret the Jags are trying to keep the ball out of Bortles’ hands as much, which leads to Fournette carrying the offensive workload. Through the first 5 weeks, Fournette has received 70% of the carries and has been targeted 15 times. He’s going up against a Rams defense that ranks 32nd in aFPA (32.8). The Jags are a slight home favorite, so that also bodes well for Fournette.
Devonta Freeman (DK $7,400, FD $ 8,500) – Freeman is the better play on DK since his salary gives you bigger savings from the two backs mentioned above. Freeman has the luxury of playing behind the number 1 rated run blocking offensive line according to PFF. The Falcons are among the biggest home favorites this week (11.5) and are implied to score over 28 points. The Dolphins rank in the middle of the pack in aFPA with an average of 21 PPG. There’s always a concern with splitting carries with Tevin Coleman, but through the Falcons first 4 games, Freeman has 73% of the carries compared to Coleman’s 27%.
Mark Ingram (DK $4,400, FD $ 5,900) – A true committee that a lot of DFS players will have their eye on. With the trade of Adrian Peterson, this backfield is now a true timeshare between Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara (DK $4,500, FD $ 5,800). My initial thought is that Kamara will be the more popular back because of his involvement in the passing game and his big game before last week’s bye. Kamara went for 25.6 DK points on 10 receptions for 71 yards and a TD. This game has shootout written all over it so Kamara could continue to see more passing targets out of the backfield. My only concern here is that although Ingram is being phased out by the coaches, he’s still seeing over 55% of the carries and 36% of the targets. Ingram does have pass-catching upside and is still the goal line back, so he’d be the preferred choice on FD. However, on DK I think I’d have to lean on Kamara for the bigger PPR upside.
Jerick McKinnon (DK $4,100, FD $5,600) – Another running back situation that people will monitor is the Vikings’ committee. Last week in their first week without Delvin Cook, McKinnon saw 67% of the snaps compared to Murray who saw 31%. The carries were 55% for McKinnon and 41% to Murray. McKinnon led all backs with 6 receptions on 6 targets, while Murray seemed to be phased out in the second half. McKinnon was more successful with his workload averaging 5.9 YPC compared to Murray’s 2.6. McKinnon is currently rated as our top value play (points per dollar) on DK and FD.
Chris Thompson (DK $5,000) – A nice GPP pivot off the chalkier cheaper options I mentioned above. If Rob Kelly misses like the reports indicate he is, Thompson could be a great gpp option against the 49ers. He’s not that cheap on DK but has a lot of upside. Samaje Perine could work the early downs but Thompson is the featured back in the passing game, which I expect the Redskins to focus on.
Other Viable Options:
CJ Anderson, M. Gordon, T. Gurley, A. Jones *T. Montgomery out*, L. Miller, E. McGuire.
Wide Receivers:
Wide Receiver is a little more open season when compared to running backs. There are a lot of teams that are big favorites so there are really only a few passing offenses that you want to use.
DeAndre Hopkins (DK $8,100, FD $8,000) – Nuke’s price took a STEEP hike on DK, rising over $1,700 after a 3 touchdown performance against the Chiefs. But even at over 8K, that price is finally warranted for a guy that is receiving over 12 targets per game. Through 5 weeks of the season, Hopkins only trails Antonio Brown for most targets in the league. This week Hopkins has an above average matchup against Jason McCourty, who actually has a great grade on PFF(91.7), but the past two seasons he’s averaged a grade in the mid 50’s. It’s also worth noting that Hopkins is expected to lineup against Jamar Taylor (has a 45.1 PFF rating) in two WR sets. Hopkins should be able to produce with the 12+ targets he’s expected to see.
Julio Jones (DK, $8,300, FD $8,400) – I have yet to roster Julio this season, and thankfully so. Julio has yet to score this year and only has 30 targets on the season (4 games). But I have a feeling this is the week we see Julio get back on track. The Falcons are really thin at WR and Julio will be facing either Cordrea Tankersley or Xavien Howard. Regardless of who Julio matches up against, he’s virtually matchup proof. Julio notoriously plays better at home than on the road. It’s about time Julio finds the endzone this week.
Pierre Garcon (DK $ 6,300, FD $6,800) – I loved Garcon last week against the Colts despite going up against Vontae Davis. This week I want to go back to the well in a game that I expect the 49ers to be trailing. The Redskins will be without Josh Norman which helps Garcon. Garcon is currently 8th in the league in targets with 44 through 5 games. This week Garcon could face Quinton Dunbar and Bashaud Breeland who are both targetable corners. I expect Garcon to get 10-12 targets this game and can very well see him putting up over 14 fantasy points.
Adam Thielen (DK $6,000 FD $6,500) – Thielen gets a great matchup here against a bad Packers secondary. Thielen is the primary slot receiver for the Vikings so he’ll face Quinten Rollins who is one of the worst slot corners according to PFF. The Packers should jump out to an early lead, which would mean the Vikings would have to pass the ball more. It’s worth monitoring Bradford’s status as game day gets closer.
Cash Viable Plays:
M. Thomas, K.Allen, L. Fitzgerald, J. Landry, G. Tate, C. Hogan, A. Cooper.
Gpp Flyers:
D. Jackson, John Brown, M. Jones Jr., T. Hill, D. Amendola, B. Cooks, T. Pryor Sr.
Value Receivers
A. Wilson, J. Kearse, J. Crowder.
Tight Ends:
Hunter Henry (DK $4,100, FD $5,400) – Henry looks to have finally taken over the tight end position for the Chargers. After 3 weeks of force-feeding Antonio Gates, Henry has finally become a part of the offense. He has now scored in two straight weeks. He ran 33 routes in over 75% of snaps he played last week.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (DK $4,300, FD $5,600) – ASJ came through last week by scoring a touchdown. That now gives him an average of 6 targets the past 3 weeks. He’s going up against the Patriots who will get out to a big lead and have allowed the most passing yards in the league.
Travis Kelce (DK $6,100, FD $7,200) – Kelce is the top projected TE on both sites this week. Kelce has 20 targets the last two weeks. Keep an eye out on the Chiefs injury report to make sure Kelce is active.
Defense:
There are 5 teams that are currently more than a touchdown favorite. The Patriots are the only team in that bunch that is not at home. The Ravens (16.5), Falcons (17.25), Redskins (18), Texans (18.5), and the Patriots (20) are all going up against teams implied to score less than 20 points. Defense is very volatile so any one of these could land atop the leaderboards. The Ravens are currently our top projected defense. While the Bucs are the best value projected to score nearly 3x.
Good Luck!
NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football: Week 2 Cash and GPP Plays
The NFL Week 2 slate kicks off with two games on the main slate that currently have Vegas over/under greater than 53. Per usual, these games will see the heaviest amount of ownership in cash games and tournaments. The difference this week from the first week is that these games actually consist of four high-powered offensive teams. Before I dive into this week’s positional breakdown, I’ll give a preview of the two games that could dictate the landscape of week 2.
Put our picks into the optimizer and let us help crunch the numbers, or browse through the Week 2 studs and sleepers with NFL Player Lab.
Patriots (31) @ Saints (24.5) o/u 54 (open) 55.5 (live)
The Patriots come into week 2 0-1 for the first time since 2014. If you’re panicking as a Patriots fan, you really shouldn’t, the last three times the Patriots started 0-1 they went on to win the Super Bowl. Bill Belichick is 42-6 following a loss. The Vegas lined open with the Patriots as a 4.5 point favorite but has since moved to a 6.5 favorite over the Saints giving the Patriots the highest implied team total on the main slate. They are going up against a Saints defense that just got lit up by Sam Bradford on Monday night football. Last season the Saints ranked 27th in the league in Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) and 23rd against opposing wide receivers. To say the Saints have a bad secondary is an understatement. So Tom Brady against the Saints after not throwing a touchdown pass in the first game of the season is in a great spot. The Patriots offense as a whole with 10 days to prepare for this week going up against a Saints defense that has had 5 days to prepare an irritated Belichick.
Now the Saints aren’t in a bad spot themselves. They are playing in what many of the DFS community call the Coors Field of the NFL, the Superdome. The Saints offense passed the ball on nearly 60% of their offensive plays in the first week against the Vikings. The fact that they are about a touchdown underdog shows that Vegas believes they could be trailing throughout the game and could lead to more of the same game script for the Saints offense. Drew Brees is notorious for his home and road splits, and this week he’s back at home, and the Saints offense has performed much better when playing at home.
We always got to remember that Vegas isn’t always 100 percent right, but they are often a good indicator of game scripts. Figuring out how to roster a few players in this game will be key having a successful week 2.
Packers (25.5) @ Falcons (28) o/u 53.5
These two teams meet up for the first time since the NFC Championship in a highly anticipated rematch. These two teams are also coming off of a week 1 offensive let down where they had similar positive Vegas numbers. Both teams had their fair share of concerns back in week 1. The Falcons were on the road, and the Packers were going up against an improved Seahawks defense. But onward to this week!
The Falcons return home where they flat out dominated the league with their high-powered offense. The difference is that this season they have a new offensive coordinator in Steve Sarkisian who managed the Falcons to a 57-43 pass to run ratio. Matt Ryan is going up against the Packers defense that was 31st in passing yards allowed and 29th in quarterback touchdowns. Matt Ryan at home against a mediocre Packers secondary is just as must as a lock as a top quarterback could be.
While the Falcons are favored by just under a field goal, the Packers implied total is also top 10 in the week. The Packers offenses threw at a 60-40 percent ratio against a tough Seattle passing defense and were able to manage over 300 yards. Aaron Rodgers has lit up the Falcons in his first two meetings against them accumulating 7 touchdowns on 573 yards against the Falcons.
This game will be featured as the Sunday night game, and you’d want to construct your lineups to have some exposure to this game or else you could see yourself dropping on the leaderboards.
Now that we looked into the two games that could have the highest impact on this week’s slate let’s take a look at a few other options at the different positions.
Quarterbacks:
If week 1 taught us anything, it was that paying up for the premium quarterbacks is over rated. The average quarterback scored 15.5 points on DraftKings and 14.62 points on FanDuel. We saw plenty of lineups at the top of the leaderboards with Carson Wentz and Matthew Stafford, and there were plenty of bust in the higher tier (I’m talking about your Russell Wilson). This week it may be harder to get away from the top tier (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Ryan) but there are always a few options in the middle and lower tier we can consider.
Derek Carr (DK $7,200, FD $8,300)
There are two quarterbacks that I like this week as a pivot from the quarterbacks mentioned above and the first is Derek Carr. Carr is coming off a week 1 performance where the Raiders offense controlled the game against an improved Titans defense and Carr completed over 68% of his passes. This week the Raiders are a huge 14 point favorites (second biggest on the slate) with an implied total of 28.5 at home against the Jets. The Jets have among one of the worst defenses in the league and last year allowed 30 passing touchdowns, which ranked in the bottom 10 in the league. The Jets also have a funnel defense which could force the Raiders to more passing situations with the Jets ability to limit the run game.
Russell Wilson (DK $6,800, FD $8,100)
Similar to Carr, Wilson comes into week 2 with an implied total of 28 points at home against a 49ers team that also allowed 30 passing touchdowns last year. The 49ers front seven is much improved from last season but could be limited depending on the status of rookie linebacker Reuben Foster. In week 1 the Seahawks had a 60-40 pass to run ratio, and Pete Caroll could look to stick with that ratio as Seattle has a lot of question marks in their backfield. Wilson has traditionally performed better at home than on the road, and Wilson is averaging 2.83 DK points at home than on the road. Wilson has averaged 19.7 DK points against the 49ers at home in two meetings against them in his career. These two quarterbacks are likely to be the most popular pivot from the high priced guys.
Carson Palmer (DK $6,000, FD $7,500)
Palmer did not look good against the Lions last week. He completed just 56% of his passes and threw 3 bad interceptions that allowed the Lions to come from behind and steal a victory. The bright side is that Palmer did throw the ball 48 times. The Cardinals also lost their star running back, David Johnson and have a mess in the backfield. Although Johnson is a huge weapon for Palmer out of the backfield, this could force even more passing plays for Palmer. This week Palmer is going up against a Colts defense that just got exposed for a 300 yard game by Jared Goff and a mediocre Rams offense. The Cardinals are an 8.5 road favorite with a score of 25.75. Palmer doesn’t quite check all the boxes you’d like to see for a quarterback, but he’s worth a flyer in tournaments, especially if you stack him with Larry Fitzgerald.
Joe Flacco (DK $5,200, FD $7,000)
Recovering from back injury, Flacco was eased back into live action in week 1. The Ravens protected Flacco by running the ball 71% of their offensive plays, but Flacco has a juicy matchup against the Browns. With an implied total of 23.5 and an 8 point favorite, the Ravens could very well continue to run the ball, but Flacco could be a big part of getting the big league for the Ravens. The Browns cut Joe Haden this preseason and ranked 30th against the pass last season DVOA, so this could be a get well game for Flacco down at $5,200 on Draftkings.
Running Backs:
Last week I was a part of #TeamJamEmIn and rostered both LeVeon Bell and David Johnson. It didn’t work so well last week, and we no longer have that option with DJ out until possibly December. This week there aren’t a lot of backs that fill the bill with situations I like (home favorites with a high team total), but I’ll give you a few that stand out.
Melvin Gordon (DK $7,000, FD $7,600)
Gordon is insanely cheap on FanDuel, but he’s also relatively cheap on DraftkKngs as well. Due to the amount of volume he receives, he could be a steal at that mid-tier price point. Last week, Gordon had a pretty solid showing on the road against a tough Broncos defense. He totaled 23 touches and 79 yards and a touchdown (16.4 FDp & 18.9 DKp). This week Gordon is one of the few running backs that check all the boxes for being a home favorite running back with a decent team total. Gordon is the 6th highest price running back on DraftKings and 10th on Fanduel so he could warrant lower than expected ownership on DK considering he’s $200 more than Kareem Hunt.
Ty Montgomery (DK $5,800, FD $6,500)
If you’re looking for another non-expensive running back look no further than Montgomery. Montgomery is the 15th most expensive back on DK and 20th on FD. When you look at Montgomery’s game log in week 1, the one thing that stands out was his pass catching ability. A former receiver converted to running back, Montgomery caught each of his 4 targets against the Seahawks and turned that into 19.3 DK points. Although Montgomery is a road underdog against, he does have a high team total (25.25) in a game that is projected to be a shootout (53.5 o/u) and faces a Falcons defense that ranked dead last this past season in allowing running backs receptions (109) and yards (870). Montgomery is a good way to get exposure to this game at a very cheap cost.
Kareem Hunt (DK $6,800, FD $7,800)
The rookie burst onto the scene last week with a huge night racking up 248 total yards and 3 TD’s in 23 touches against a much improved Patriots defense. Hunt is likely to be very popular this week as he’s up against the Eagles who rank 22nd in aFPA per 4for4. Hunt is one of those running backs that check all the boxes as he’s a home favorite (-4.5) with an implied total of 26 points. It’s important to note that he’s not as cheap on FanDuel, where he is the 7th highest priced back.
Jacquizz Rodgers (DK $4,400, FD $6,000)
Rodgers will get his first of three starts as the Bucs premier back with Doug Martin suspended for three games this season. Rodgers had over 17 touches per game in spot starts last season and could be in for a heavy workload as a home favorite against the Bears. The Bears do have an improved front 7, so I could see a game script where Dirk Koetter elects to test out Winston’s new weapons on offense. Rodgers is cheap and should get anywhere from 15-18 touches in the game.
Tarik Cohen (DK $4,1000, FD $7,000) – A road underdog that has the game script that will likely feature a pass-catching running back. The Bears showed that Cohen is their clear pass catching back.
Wide Receivers
In a slate that features four high-powered offenses with great Vegas totals, all of the high-priced receivers are in good spots this week to have a monster year. Antonio Brown is a beneficiary of Big Ben’s home splits and the same goes for Julio Jones.
Julio Jones (DK $9,200, FD $8,800)
Julio is in a ridiculous matchup. We’ve already talked about his high team total and the fact that that game has shootout written all over it. On top of all that, Jones is going up against the Packers defense that ranked 29th in wide receiver fantasy points allowed last season. Even last week when they bottled up Wilson, Baldwin was still able to manage a decent 63 yards on 4 catches. Julio will go up against Damarious Randall who allowed the second-most fantasy points per snap on a per-route basis in week 1 per Mike Clay. Julio and Ryan at home are a dynamic duo and could be in line for a monster game.
Brandin Cooks (DK $8,200, FD $7,900)
Another wide receiver in a high over/under game. Naturally, Cooks would have to make this list. He’s returning to the Superdome to play against his former team #NarrativeStreet. The Patriots were already without Julian Edelman and are more than likely to be without Danny Amendola who has not practiced this week due to a concussion and knee injury sustained in week 1. The Patriots will likely have two healthy receivers who are familiar with the playbook and Cooks has the upside to have a huge game.
Larry Fitzgerald (DK $6,500, FD $6,600)
Fitzgerald is a stud in the first six weeks of the season. Last week he received a team-high 13 targets and caught 6 of them for 74 yards. This week without David Johnson I expect the Cardinals to rely heavily on the passing game. We already talked about how the Colts got torn apart by a mediocre Rams offense. The savvy vet Fitzgerald is almost a sure bet to find the end zone.
Marqise Lee (DK $3,800, FD $5,900)
If you’re looking for value, unfortunately, it may lie on Marqise Lee. Lee could be the benefactor from the injury that causes Allen Robinson to miss the rest of the season. Lee is likely to move into the starting wide receiver spot and will play alongside Allen Hurns who caught under 50% of his targets last season. Lee was held without a catch last week against the Texans, but he should be in line to see more volume this week. Bortles leaves a lot to be desired, but Lee is very cheap and could help you fit in some of these top priced studs.
Adam Thielen (DK $ 5,000, FD $5,800)
Thielen had a breakout game 1 of the 2017 season on Monday night. He racked up 157 yards on 9 catches and out-targeted the Vikings number 1 receiver Diggs. He’s not a big red zone factor for Bradford, but his game script does indicate the Vikings could be playing catch up and throwing a lot as a 5.5 underdog against the Steelers on the road.
Tight End
Tight End is a position I traditionally like to find value. This week is no different. While there are viable top-tier options that are worthy of rostering, I find that in this week it’s easier for roster construction to find value at tight end.
Coby Fleener (DK $3,100, FD $5,300)
Fleener will be the consensus chalk on DraftKings. As the 15th price tight end, Fleener opens up a lot of salary to afford a higher priced stud. Fleener looks to benefit from the absence of Willie Snead as in the two games without Snead, Fleener has averaged 8.5 targets for an average of 81 yards and a touchdown. The Saints are a home underdog, but Fleener has traditionally done better at home. Fleener is looking to be like the free square that Ertz was last week.
Jared Cook (DK $3,300, FD $5,100)
I like Jared Cook as a pivot off Fleener’s high ownership this week. Cook receiver 20% of the target market shares in an Oakland offense that is implied to score the second most points on the slate. He looked like a nice security blanket for Carr down the seems and is an excellent pivot from both Fleener and the popular Carr/Cooper or Carr/Crabtree stack. He’s up against a Jets funnel defense that allowed the third-most touchdowns to tight ends last season.
Gpp consideration
Carles Clay (DK $3,300, FD $5,100)
Another pivot from Fleener, Clay led the Bills with 9 targets in week 1. Clay is going up against the Panthers who allowed the second-most touchdowns last season.
Defense
If week 2 is as crazy as week 1 was we better be ready to hit on defense. Last week we saw 4 different defense score over 20 DK points, and it was almost impossible to land atop the leaderboards without them.
Oakland Raiders (DK $3,500, FD $5,300)
There are a few chalk options this week, starting with the Raiders.They’re at home and face a Jets team that is implied for 15 points (second lowest on the slate). The Raiders are coming off of an impressive performance on the road against a much improved Titans offense. Playing the Raiders with Marshawn Lynch could be a nice way to get exposure to the game on both sides of the ball.
Baltimore Ravens (DK $3,700, FD $4,700)
A better play on FanDuel, the Ravens defense comes into week 2 in a great spot. After holding the Bengals to 0 points in week 1, the Ravens shift their focus to the Browns. Like the Raiders, the Ravens are a double-digit (10) favorite against a poor offense. Although the Brown showed some promise last week against the Steelers, the Ravens are at home and had a 71% run percentage last week, which suggest there could be very limited possessions in this game. The Browns are implied to score 15.5 points (third worst on the slate), so the Ravens could be a nice pivot for teams that want to save the $200 with the Raiders.
Other considerations;
Seattle Seahawks (DK $4,000, FD $5,400)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK $3,200, FD $4,500)