The running back landscape for Week 6 in DFS is going to be very different. If you’re playing in the main Sunday afternoon slate, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack and James White are just a few of the names who won’t be at your disposal either because their team is on a bye or they are playing in a prime time game.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 12 – Running Backs
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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The running back position isn’t nearly as deep for the main Sunday slate in Week 12 with the Rams and Chiefs on byes and all of the Thanksgiving games added to the usual Sunday and Monday primetime contests. There are still some great options to target, though, so let’s highlight a few that stand out. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Melvin Gordon III vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $8,900
DraftKings = $8,600
Entering Week 11 as winners of five straight, the Chargers suffered a disappointing loss at the hands of the Broncos. Gordon wasn’t exactly efficient, but his 18 carries helped him finish with 69 rushing yards. However, he was heavily involved in the passing attack, catching all six of his targets for an additional 87 yards. Even though he failed to reach the end zone for the first time since Week 1, Gordon finished with at least 120 total yards for the fifth straight game.
Gordon’s struggles on the ground were a bit surprising, especially with how poorly the Broncos have defended against the run. He’ll get a chance to redeem himself Sunday against a Cardinals defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (141.5) to go along with 13 touchdowns on the ground. Gordon is certainly expensive, but don’t hesitate to pay up for him in cash contests based on his floor.
James Conner vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $7,800
Conner struggled to get things going on the ground early against the Jaguars on Sunday and then the Steelers were forced to throw a lot late down 16-0. They stormed back for the win, but Conner only had nine carries for 25 yards. He also hauled in six of nine targets, but only for 24 yards. This game also marked the first time since Week 4 that Conner failed to record a touchdown.
The Jaguars haven’t been as tough on opposing running backs as they have quarterbacks, but they still have a good defense, overall. Conner has an excellent opportunity to get things back on track against the Broncos, who are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (127.9). The Steelers might also be able to jump out to a big lead against this far inferior opponent, which could lead to a game flow that favors Conner in the second half.
David Johnson vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $7,300
It took a change at offensive coordinator, but Johnson is back to being an extremely productive running back again. He only caught one of three targets for 17 yards in Week 11 against the Raiders, but he also set season highs in rushing attempts (25) and rushing yards (137). After receiving at least 20 carries just one time across the first eight weeks, he’s topped that mark in both of his last two contests.
The Cardinals still aren’t scoring a ton of points, which does limit Johnson’s upside, to an extent. It’s clear, though, that they plan for him to be heavily involved moving forward. The Chargers have only given up six rushing touchdowns this season, but they have allowed 4.6 yards-per-carry. Gordon and Conner have the potential for better overall lines since they play for better offenses that put them in more positions to score touchdowns, but Johnson’s role still makes him a safe option in DFS.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Nick Chubb vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $6,300
Early indications are that the Browns made the right choice trading Carlos Hyde to the Jaguars to open up more playing time for Chubb. Since that trade, Chubb has received at least 18 carries and recorded at least 65 rushing yards in four straight games. He exploded for 176 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 10 against the Falcons and already has four total touchdowns since taking on an expanded role.
Chubb comes into this game out of a bye week, so he should be fresh for what is an excellent matchup against the Bengals. The Bengals have arguably the worst rushing defense in the league, allowing 153.6 yards per contest and 13 scores on the ground. Chubb’s price is climbing, but he still presents an excellent opportunity for production in this contest. If you play season-long fantasy, as well, note that this is one of two remaining games against the Bengals for Chubb.
Marlon Mack vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $7,000
DraftKings = $5,500
Mack rebounded from a quiet performance in Week 10 against the Jaguars to rush for 61 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries versus the Titans in Week 11. The Colts struggled to run the ball with Mack out earlier this season, but he’s come on to solidify their rushing attack by averaging 78.5 yards per game. Not only is he chewing up yards on the ground, but he also has five total touchdowns across his last four games.
Mack hasn’t received a ton of carries the last two weeks, but he was on the field for at least 60 percent of the Colts offensive snaps in both contests. He’s clearly their lead back, which sets him up nicely for Sunday in a matchup against a Dolphins team that has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (142). They’ve also struggled to put points on the board, so Mack might get a few extra carries in the second half if the Colts can jump out to an early lead.
Matt Breida vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $5,700
Breida was excellent against the Giants in Week 10, rushing 17 times for 101 yards and a touchdown. He also hauled in three of four targets for 31 yards and an additional score. It was just his second game of the season with at least 100 rushing yards and his four targets tied his previous season-high that he set back in Week 2. With Raheem Mostert (forearm) out for the rest of the season, Breida was also on the field for 60 percent of the 49ers offensive snaps, which was his second-highest percentage so far.
If anyone could have used a bye week, it’s Breida. He’s dealt with various injuries all season, but he should be well rested for what is a stellar matchup to target. The Bucs defense has been bad in just about every facet of the game, including being tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed (14). They’ve also allowed 511 yards and four touchdowns through the air to opposing running backs. At this cheap price, it’s hard to pass up on Breida in tournament play.
Gus Edwards vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $5,300
DraftKings = $4,400
The Ravens were forced to make a quarterback change last week with Joe Flacco (hip) unable to take the field. Lamar Jackson received his first career start against the Bengals, and while he didn’t do much through the air, he had 27 carries for 117 yards. The Ravens also changed things up a running back, giving Edwards carries as the game went on due to the struggles of Alex Collins. After rushing the ball just 15 times all season, Edwards exploded for 115 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries.
The threat of Jackson running the ball certainly makes things tough on opposing defenses. He and Edwards seemed to play off of each other well, so if Jackson does start again Sunday, Edwards could once again receive more carries Collins. There is certainly plenty of risk here since Edwards is largely an unproven commodity, but he’s priced so cheap on both sites that he won’t need to match his total from last week in order to still provide value.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Alex Collins vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,500
Collins was able to score an early touchdown against the Bengals but struggled again with only 18 yards on seven carries. That marked the fourth time in the last five games that he had 3.9 yards-per-carry or fewer, which was one of the reasons while the Ravens gave Edwards a chance to prove himself. With the uncertainty surrounding who will be their lead back moving forward, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to take a chance on Collins this week, especially at his price on FanDuel.
LeSean McCoy vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,200
It’s been a rough season for the Bills, but at least they were able to enjoy their bye week after drubbing the Jets 41-10. McCoy had his best performance of the year in that contest, turning 26 carries into 113 yards and two touchdowns. Don’t get too excited, though, because he had a total of 24 rushing yards across his previous three games. Even though he clearly still has something left in the tank, the Bills terrible overall offense leaves him with very little upside.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 – Running Backs
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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One of the themes of Week 2 was running backs racking up catches for their respective squads. Three of the top four leaders in receptions for Week 2 were runnings backs and all three of them finished with at least 80 receiving yards. There are plenty of great matchups for running backs again in Week 3, so let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain the edge in DFS. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Alvin Kamara vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $9,500
Kamara had another fairly quiet performance on the ground in Week 2, rushing 13 times for 46 yards against the Browns. However, he was heavily involved in the passing game, catching all six of his targets for 53 yards. Through the first two games, Kamara already has 15 receptions on 18 targets. He was a monster in the passing game last year, as well, hauling in 81 or 100 targets for 826 yards.
Week 3 brings a great matchup against a Falcons defense that suffered a significant loss when linebacker Deion Jones was placed on IR. Christian McCaffrey took advantage of his absence last week, catching 14 of 15 targets for 102 yards. Kamara may not get a ton of carries again, but his tremendous upside as a receiver makes him one of the best running back options available in DFS.
Saquon Barkley vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,600
The Giants looked awful offensively Sunday night against the Cowboys. Their offensive line once again had trouble protecting Eli Manning, who has clearly lost a step at this stage of his career. Manning looked to have his head on a swivel in the pocket, often checking down to Barkley to avoid the oncoming pass rush. The end result was Barkley catching 14 of 16 passes thrown his way. He didn’t have a lot of room to run, though, accumulating only 80 receiving yards. He also couldn’t get much going on the ground, carrying 11 times for 28 yards.
The Giants have talented playmakers on offense, but their offensive line and the poor play of Manning might limit some of them from reaching their full potential this year. The one positive for Barkley is that he should receive plenty of targets from Manning as he tries to quickly get the ball out of his hands. Barkley has shown an ability to force missed tackles and he can break off a big play at any moment, which gives him a high floor most weeks.
Jordan Howard vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $6,500
Howard didn’t exactly shine on Monday Night Football against the Seahawks, rushing 14 times for 35 yards. He’s failed to score a touchdown yet this year, but his involvement in the passing game has been promising. He received 32 targets in 2017, but he’s already had nine passes thrown his way across two games, hauling in eight of them for 58 yards. The Bears have another talented pass-catcher out of the backfield in Tarik Cohen, but he’s received only five targets so far.
Week 3 brings a great matchup that could potentially lead to a breakout performance from Howard. The Cardinals offense has looked terrible this year, often putting them in a big hole early. This has resulted in their opponents running the ball a lot late in games. The Cardinals haven’t provided much resistance, allowing 256 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Chris Thompson vs. Green Bay Packers
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $6,300
Thompson may not get a lot of press, but he’s one of the best pass-catching running backs in football. He proved it again in Week 2 against the Colts, catching 13 of 14 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown. He’s quickly developed a strong relationship with Alex Smith, resulting in him receiving 21 targets through the first two weeks. While Adrian Peterson was brought in to help offset the loss of Derrius Guice, Thompson’s significant role with the team remains unquestioned.
Peterson took a step backward from his 96-rushing-yard performance in Week 1, but part of that was because the Redskins were playing catchup against the Colts. Peterson ended up with 15 fewer carriers than he had in the first week. Going up against the high-powered Packers offense could force the Redskins to throw more passes in this game, as well, making Thompson a great option to target for your entry.
Giovani Bernard vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Bank of America Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $5,900
Joe Mixon couldn’t make it through Thursday Night Football unscathed and underwent a procedure to remove a small particle from his knee over the weekend. The surgery isn’t expected to sideline Bernard for too long, but he won’t be able to suit up Sunday against the Panthers.
Bernard started two games last season that Mixon also missed due to injury. One of them was a tough matchup against the Vikings where he finished with only 43 total yards, but he did score a touchdown and receive 14 carries to go along with five targets. He accumulated 130 total yards in his other start against the Bears. The Panthers have allowed 4.9 yards per carry across their first two games this season, leaving Bernard with a high ceiling considering his expected role and price in DFS.
Matt Breida vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $5,400
The 49ers were dealt a crushing blow when they lost Jerick McKinnon to a torn ACL before the season even started. In his absence, Breida and Alfred Morris became the lead duo in their backfield. After an unfavorable matchup versus the Vikings in Week 1, Breida rebounded in a big way Sunday against the Lions. He only carried the ball 11 times, but he ran for 138 yards and a score.
Another encouraging sign for Breida in Week 2 is that he received four targets. This could be a high-scoring game against the Chiefs explosive offense, which may force the 49ers to throw more than usual. The Chiefs have given up 261 receiving yards on 21 receptions to running backs so far this year. If he continues to play like he did last week, he could break away from Morris, who has averaged 3.3 yards per carry.
Corey Clement vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $4,300
The Eagles could be very thin at running back this week. Darren Sproles missed Week 2 with a hamstring injury and his status for this game against the Colts is still in doubt. Jay Ajayi also briefly left Sunday’s game with a back injury, but there have been reports that he might not be able to play this week. The Eagles already promoted Josh Adams from their practice squad, which isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for the prospects of Ajayi and Sproles taking the field.
Clement played well in Week 2 with Ajayi limited, finishing with 85 total yards and a touchdown. If Ajayi ultimately does not play in this contest, Clement should see a significant boost in value. If Sproles is also ruled out, the potential value you could receive from Clement at this might be too hard to pass up.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
LeSean McCoy vs. Minnesota Vikings
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,100
McCoy is really the only significant weapon the Bills have on offense. They have a hard enough time scoring points, to begin with, but now McCoy is dealing with a rib injury heading into Week 3. He’s listed as questionable right now, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s forced to miss at least this contest. Even if he does play, he’ll be at less than 100% against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Stay far, far away from McCoy when crafting your lineup.
Derrick Henry vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – TIAA Bank Field
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,400
Henry had the potential to become the lead running back for the Titans after the departure of DeMarco Murray, but the addition of Dion Lewis put a damper on his value. They have basically split the carries through two games with Henry getting 28 rushing attempts compared to 30 for Lewis. Lewis is clearly their preferred option as a pass-catcher, though, as he has nine targets compared to just one for Henry. There’s just not enough upside here with Henry to warrant taking a chance on him against the Jaguars stingy defense.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 2 – Running Backs
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Early bird special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
Week 1 wasn’t exactly a banner start for running backs across the NFL with only four players topping 100 rushing yards. Two of them were James Conner, who took advantage of the absence of Le’Veon Bell, and Isaiah Crowell, who was making his debut for the Jets. Let’s dive into the schedule for Week 2 and examine some players to target or avoid as you create your DFS lineup. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Alvin Kamara vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $9,500
Kamara only ran the ball eight times Sunday for 29 yards, but he did record two rushing touchdowns. With the Saints involved in a shootout, Kamara’s heaviest usage came in the passing game as he hauled in nine of 12 targets for 112 yards and another touchdown. Both the 12 targets and 112 receiving yards were the highest marks of his career.
It should come as no surprise that Kamara saw such a high usage catching passes out of the backfield considering he had 100 targets last year. He never had more than 12 rushing attempts in 2017, either, so don’t be surprised if he doesn’t see a major increase even with Mark Ingram suspended. That being said, he has a huge role in the Saints offense and gets another favorable matchup at home against a Browns team that allowed 135 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Conner last week.
Todd Gurley II vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,900
DraftKings = $9,200
Gurley was one of the four running backs in the NFL to top 100 rushing yards in Week 1, finishing second to Conner with 108 yards on the ground. He was also one of only five running backs to get at least 20 rushing attempts. The Rams have a lot of weapons at wide receiver, but Gurley is clearly the focal point of their offense.
The Cardinals had a hard time stopping the Redskins rushing attack in Week 1, which was led by Adrian Peterson and his 96 yards on 26 carries. Chris Thompson even chipped in 65 rushing yards on just five attempts. The Cardinals run defense was ranked 23rd heading into this season by Pro Football Focus, so their struggles out of the gate were not all that surprising. Gurley has one of the highest floors of any running back taking the field in Week 2.
Melvin Gordon III vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $8,200
DraftKings = $7,400
Gordon didn’t exactly dominate on the ground against the Chiefs, rushing 15 times for 64 yards. With the Chargers playing catch up late in the game, Gordon was actually used extensively in the passing attack, catching nine of 13 targets for 102 yards. He had a total of 83 targets in 2017 and should be a significant weapon catching passes out of the backfield again in 2018.
This could be an entirely different type of game for the Chargers against the Bills and their anemic offense. I expect Gordon to see fewer targets, as a result, but he could also get more carries if the Chargers get up big early. The Bills allowed three rushing touchdowns against the Ravens on Sunday after giving up a league-high 22 touchdowns in the ground in 2017, leaving Gordon with the potential for an extremely valuable performance.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Christian McCaffrey vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $7,000
McCaffrey was the talk of the preseason after the Panthers coaching staff stated they wanted to get him more touches this year. He didn’t exactly set the league on fire in Week 1 against the Cowboys, rushing 10 times for 50 yards. He also caught six of nine targets for 45 yards. While the overall yardage was a positive sign, McCaffrey again failed to reach the end zone after recording just seven total touchdowns in his rookie season.
This could be the week the stars align for McCaffrey against the Falcons, who allowed the most receptions by opposing running backs (107) in the league last year. They have also lost linebacker Deion Jones to a foot injury. The Panthers will also be without tight end Greg Olsen due to another foot injury of his own, opening up even more targets for McCaffrey.
Adrian Peterson vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $5,500
Peterson wasn’t overly efficient with his 3.7 yards per carry in Week 1, but it was encouraging to see him rack up 26 carries in the first game of the year. Although he was a late addition to the roster after Derrius Guice was lost for the season with a torn ACL, Peterson is clearly the lead back for the Redskins. Samaje Perine was inactive for the game and Rob Kelley received just three carries.
The Colts secondary might be one of the worst in the league, but their run defense wasn’t much better against the Bengals on Sunday, allowing Joe Mixon to accumulate 95 yards and a touchdown on only 17 carries. Peterson’s volume makes him a very appealing option to consider.
Chris Thompson vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $5,900
Thompson was limited to 10 games last season due to injury, but he was putting up big numbers catching passes out of the backfield before he went down. He averaged 13.1 yards per catch and scored a career-high four receiving touchdowns. Although he’s known more for his receiving skills, Thompson averaged 4.6 yards per carry and has averaged 5.4 yards per carry for his career, overall.
Thompson showed no signs of rust in his first regular season game since November, catching six of 7 targets for 63 yards and a score in Week 1. Add in his 65 yards on the ground and he and Peterson both topped 120 total yards against the Cardinals. There is certainly room for both of them to be successful again this week.
Phillip Lindsay vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $4,400
During training camp, Devontae Booker and Royce Freeman were battling it out for the Broncos starting running back job. Freeman entered the season at the top of the depth chart and rushed 15 times for 71 yards against the Seahawks. Booker received only two carries, but he was expected to be more heavily involved in the passing attack. Booker caught both of his targets for 11 yards, but he looks to be behind Lindsay now as well.
Lindsay flashed plenty of potential out of the gate, rushing 15 times for 71 yards and catching two of his three targets for 31 yards. He was on the field for only three fewer snaps than Freeman, but he out-snapped Booker 26 to 19. If you play in season-long fantasy, Lindsay is a hot add off waivers. He’s still very cheap in DFS for Week 2, so it might be a good idea to take advantage of the discount while you still can.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
LeSean McCoy vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,700
McCoy was not immune to the disasters of the Bills offense Sunday. In a game that was over early, he had only seven carries for 22 yards. He caught one of his three targets, losing a yard on the lone pass that he hauled in. The Bills quarterback situation is a mess and they don’t have much talent at wide receiver, either, which should allow opposing defenses to focus their efforts on stopping McCoy. With so many other quality options this week, he seems like an unnecessary risk to take.
Jamaal Williams vs. Minnesota Vikings
Stadium – Lambeau Field
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $5,200
The Packers only ran the ball 18 times Sunday night, 15 of which went to Williams. He didn’t cash in on his opportunities, averaging 3.1 yards per carry. He also failed to catch either of the two passes thrown his way. The Packers had to turn away from the run during their comeback efforts, but their offense is clearly built around Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is dealing with an injury that could at least limit him in this game, but you don’t want to start Williams either way against the stout Vikings defense
Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations for Week 17
*Mike Barner*
Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations for Week 17
The NFL regular season comes to a close this week with playoff positioning still to be determined. While several playoff teams are still battling for seeding, there are some that have nothing left to play for, so there is a chance they could rest their starters. Even with a few stars possibly resting this week, there are still plenty of great options for your daily fantasy football entry. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
**QUARTERBACKS**
Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
DraftKings = $6,700
FanDuel = $7,700
Garoppolo had the most impressive performance of his brief 49ers career in Week 16, throwing for 242 yards and two touchdowns against a tough Jacksonville Jaguars defense. He also chipped in a rushing touchdown, marking his second career game with at least three touchdowns. Not only was it impressive that he played so well against a good defense, but also considering he has very limited offensive weapons around him. The Rams are resting several key players this week with a first-round bye out of each, leaving Garoppolo as someone to consider for your entry.
Kirk Cousins vs. New York Giants
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
DraftKings = $6,200
FanDuel = $7,600
While this has been a disappointing season for the Redskins, Cousins is only three touchdown passes away from setting a new career-high and throwing at least 30 touchdowns for the first time in his career. Week 17 brings an excellent matchup against a Giants defense that is riddled with injuries and playing extremely poorly. The Giants enter Sunday allowing the second-most net passing yards per game (260) and have allowed the most passing touchdowns (32) in the league. Cardinals backup quarterback Drew Stanton managed to throw for 209 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants in Week 16, so the far more talented Cousins might be in for a big day.
Jacoby Brissett vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
DraftKings = $5,500
FanDuel = $6,600
Brissett doesn’t jump off the page as a viable option Sunday as he enters Week 17 having thrown for less than 200 yards in four of his last five games. While he can help out with some rushing yards, he hasn’t of late, posting 36 total rushing yards over his last three games. That being said, he gets a favorable matchup this week against a Texans defense that is tied for the second-most touchdown passes allowed (29) in the league. Brissett threw for 308 yards and two touchdowns against them earlier this season, so he is a viable option if you want to go with a cheaper quarterback.
**RUNNING BACKS**
LeSean McCoy vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
DraftKings = $8,000
FanDuel = $8,200
Despite all their struggles this season, the Bills are surprisingly still in the playoff hunt. With average at best quarterback play from Tyrod Taylor, they will likely lean heavily on McCoy to try and make the postseason Sunday. McCoy continues to rack up yards both on the ground and in the passing game, posting at least 96 total yards in four straight games. One of those games came against these same Dolphins when not only did he have 96 total yards, but he also had two total touchdowns. Expect him to get plenty of touches and provide value again in Week 17.
C.J. Anderson vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Sports Authority Field at Mile High
DraftKings = $6,000
FanDuel = $6,900
Anderson is finally getting consistent work for the Broncos as they turn to their rushing attack to cover up their hole at quarterback. Anderson was even heavily involved in the passing game in Week 16, hauling in seven of nine targets for 45 yards. Volume is the key for Anderson as he is averaging 98 rushing yards in the six games that he received at least 16 carries this season. The Chiefs struggle to stop the run and have allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (15) in the league. This is a very reasonable price for Anderson considering his upside.
Derrick Henry vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Nissan Stadium
DraftKings = $5,500
FanDuel = $5,800
Titans starting running back DeMarco Murray has an MCL tear heading into Week 17 and while he hasn’t been officially ruled out yet, the chances of him playing aren’t great. If he does manage to find his way onto the field, he would likely only play a limited role at best. Henry is in line to see increased carries as a result, something that has been few and far between this season. He only received 11 or more carries in seven games this season but managed to average 75.8 rushing yards in those games. Volume alone makes him a viable option at this price in Week 17.
**WIDE RECEIVERS**
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Field
DraftKings = $8,400
FanDuel = $9,100
It’s amazing to see what Hopkins has been able to accomplish despite all the Texans issues at quarterback this season. Despite catching passes from Tom Savage and T.J. Yates, Hopkins still has 34 receptions for 499 yards and four touchdowns in his last five games. To no surprise, he played well in his previous meeting against the Colts this season when he caught six of 16 targets for 86 yards and one touchdown. The Colts allow the third-most net passing yards per game (255) in the league, so expect another big game from Hopkins on Sunday.
JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Heinz Field
DraftKings = $7,300
FanDuel = $7,300
Smith-Schuster took over as the Steelers number one wide receiver with Antonio Brown (calf) out in Week 16, finishing with six receptions for 75 yards and one touchdown. Brown will be out again in Week 17, leaving Smith-Schuster to get plenty of opportunities to produce. While the Steelers have already clinched a first-round bye, they still have something to play for this week as they try to clinch the number one seed in the AFC. Considering he gets to face the winless Browns, Smith-Schuster could have an excellent performance Sunday.
Jamison Crowder vs. New York Giants
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
DraftKings = $5,800
FanDuel = $7,000
Crowder only has three receiving touchdowns this season, but they have all come in his last five games. One of those games was against the Giants when he finished with seven receptions, 141 yards, and one touchdown. He’s approaching a bit of a milestone Sunday as he is only four targets away from receiving at least 100 in a season for the first time of his career. With the Giants deficiencies and injuries on defense already detailed, Crowder might be able to end his season with a bang in Week 17.
Keelan Cole vs. Tennesee Titans
Stadium – Nissan Stadium
DraftKings = $5,700
FanDuel = $5,900
To say Cole is finishing the season on a high note is an understatement. With 16 receptions, 393 receiving yards and two touchdowns in his last three games, Cole has been an excellent option at a cheap price in DFS. His price is still reasonable for Week 17, especially considering the Jaguars are still dealing with multiple injuries to wide receivers. With another big role likely on tap, Cole is definitely someone to consider for your entry.
**TIGHT ENDS**
Antonio Gates vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – StubHub Center
DraftKings = $4,200
FanDuel = $5,700
With Hunter Henry (abdomen) on IR, Gates stepped back into a familiar starting role in Week 16. He had a throwback performance, hauling in six of eight targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. He’ll look to finish off the season strong against a Raiders defense that has allowed the most receiving yards (992) to tight ends this season. The price is right to take a chance that he reaches the end zone again Sunday.
Jack Doyle vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – Lucas Oil Field
DraftKings = $4,700
FanDuel = $5,400
Doyle has had an excellent season for the Colts, setting career-highs in targets (103), receptions (76) and receiving yards (652). While he only has three touchdowns, his role in the passing game has still provided him with value. He played well in his previous meeting this season against the Texans, recording eight receptions on nine targets for 63 yards. That should come as no surprise as the Texans have allowed 77 receptions for 884 yards to tight ends this season, both of which put them in the bottom-ten in the league. Expect another solid performance from Doyle in Week 17.
**DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS**
Washington Redskins vs. New York Giants
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
DraftKings = $3,200
FanDuel = $4,600
The Redskins defense has been productive lately, recording 16 sacks, four interceptions and three fumble recoveries in their last five games. One of those was against these same Giants, who scored only 10 points in the game. The Giants have even fewer healthy players now as they are dealing with injuries to Sterling Shepard (neck) and Evan Engram (ribs), both of whom are listed as questionable for Week 17. Don’t expect the Giants to be able to score much (if at all) in this game.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
DraftKings = $2,100
FanDuel = $4,000
The Rams are resting up for the playoffs and have already ruled out Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, and some key offensive lineman for Week 17. Sean Mannion will start at quarterback, but only has 16 passing attempts in his NFL career. Malcolm Brown is expected to start at running back and he only has 192 rushing yards on 49 attempts this season. With so many backups taking the field, the 49ers defense might be worth the risk in tournament play at this dirt cheap price.
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16
Tier 1
Only three options in the first tier but the decision will not be an easy one should be running just one lineup this week. Todd Gurley trails Kareem Hunt by just 13 yards rushing this season but has 190 more receiving yards and eight more total touchdowns giving him 25.1 DraftKings points per game this season and right in the middle of the league MVP talks. He is coming off a monster game where he rushed for 152 yards and three touchdowns and also added another touchdown through the air leading the Rams to a huge victory over their division rivals, the Seahawks. Kareem Hunt is also coming off a big game last week with 155 yards rushing and a touchdown and also added nine receptions for 51 yards and a touchdown through the air. It seems the Chiefs just needed to get Andy Reid away from making play calls for Hunt to get back on track as that is now back to back weeks with 100+ yards rushing.
Outside of Week 14 where he got injured, Alvin Kamara has been extremely consistent this season with seven games with 20 or more DraftKings points and sits with 1,336 all-purpose yards and 12 touchdowns. Looking at the matchups, all three of their opponents rank in the top third of the league in rushing yards per game allowed but Tennessee is the only one of the three to hold opponents under 100 yards per game and they also rank 4th overall when looking at DraftKings points per game to running backs.
The game script definitely favors Gurley, however, and he has proven to be near matchup proof at this point. When looking at DraftKings points per game allowed, Hunt has the best matchup of the three as the Dolphins rank 28th in that category and they have also allowed the most rushing yards per game(109.9). The DVOA ranks tell another story as the Falcons rank 30th in that category against the rush which is great news for Kamara who is averaging 6.6 yards per carry this season. The only knock on Kamara is that he is sharing a backfield with Mark Ingram who is also having a heck of a season. Using FanShareSports early in the week, Hunt and Gurley are neck and neck at the top and should command ownership in this tier and for me, I will be running about 45% of each with a little mix of Kamara in some contrarian lineups.
Top Targets in this Tier – Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt
Tier 2
The second tier brings us two of the six running backs in the league who have already broke 1,000 yards rushing this season. I mentioned in the last tier how the Saints have been splitting the reps almost down the middle between rookie Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram and both are having tremendous season leading the Saints to the #1 overall DVOA rank in rushing. While the Falcons rank 12th when looking at DraftKings points allowed to running backs, they have been much worse on the DVOA scale ranking 30th this season. The Saints are currently 5.5 point favorites in a game with a 52.5 Vegas Total which could lead to another run-heavy game script for the Saints. While the game script for LeSean McCoy is not in his favor as the Bills are 11.5 point dogs to the Patriots, he has a lot going for him in this matchup. Both teams rank Top 10 in pace and McCoy always gets his share of touches in the offense regardless of game script. The Patriots have also been pretty bad against running backs as well as they have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game(122.3) and rank dead last in DVOA vs. the rush.
Up next, we have two elite receivers facing each other this week. The bad news for both of them is that both teams rank Top 12 in receiving yards per game and Top 15 in DVOA vs. the pass and both have elite corners in Marshon Lattimore(NO) and Desmond Trufant(ATL) who rank near the top of PFF’s cornerback rankings. The good news is that both receivers are getting targeted a ton in their respective offenses with Julio at 9.0 per game while Thomas is getting 9.7 per game. Julio leads with 1,215 yards while Thomas has 1,085 but Thomas has the slight edge in DraftKings points per game thanks to scoring two more touchdowns. This game is projected to be a shootout and the only game this week with a Vegas Total exceeding 50 so I don’t think you can go wrong with either here in this spot.
Top Targets in this Tier – Micheal Thomas, Mark Ingram
Tier 3
Gronk returned from his one-game suspension last week and went off again posting 168 yards on nine receptions. That gives him back to back weeks with 100 or more receiving yards and three straight weeks with 25 or more DraftKings points. I wouldn’t go as far to say he gets a great matchup this week as the Bills rank 12th in DVOA vs. the pass but have been much worse against tight ends than wideouts as they rank 22nd in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position vs. 9th against wideouts. Gronk is pretty matchup proof as well. The other tight end in this tier, Travis Kelce, sits second to Gronk in receiving yards this season with 991 but has the same amount of touchdowns with seven. He has also slightly out-targeted Gronk this season with 8.1 per game but more importantly this week, he gets a way better matchup. Not only do the Dolphins rank 27th in DVOA vs. the pass but they have been terrible vs. tight ends ranking 28th overall in DraftKings points allowed to the position.
We also get two runnings backs in this tier who have been very productive lately. Kenyan Drake took over the #1 role in the Dolphins backfield when Jay Ajayi was traded to Philly and has heated up lately with 100 yards or a touchdown in four straight games for an average of 22.4 DraftKings points per game. The matchup is a bit tricky this week as the Chiefs do rank 31st in DVOA vs. the rush but 11th in DraftKings points per game to the position. The biggest knock on Drake this week could be the game script as the Dolphins are currently 10 point road underdogs and projected for just over 16 points. Drake will undoubtedly be the lowest owned player in this tier. Melvin Gordon, despite only breaking 100 yds twice this season, has been very productive ranking 7th in rushing yards (931) and has topped 75 yards in three straight games and has scored a touchdown in back to back games. The matchup is so-so as the Jets rank 13th in DVOA vs. the rush and 14th in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs but he should get plenty of volume as the Chargers are 6.5 point favorites and projected to score around 25 points this week.
Top Targets in this Tier – Travis Kelce, Melvin Gordon
Tier 4
All four quarterbacks in this tier are at home and all of them beside Drew Brees are huge double-digit favorites. Looking at each player’s last four weeks performance, it has been Cam Newton and Alex Smith who have been far and away the best quarterbacks as both are averaging over 21 DraftKings points per game. Smith’s performance is a bit skewed as he had a huge week 13 scoring 40.6 DK points but didn’t exceed 20 in either of the other three weeks. Cam has been much more consistent with performances of 31.4, 15.5, 20.4, and 17.5 and he has also topped 20 DK points in 50% of his starts this season. He adds a ton of value using his rushing ability and leads all quarterbacks with 643 yards on the ground with five rushes of 20+ yards and five touchdowns.
Despite struggling recently with just two touchdowns over his last three games, Tom Brady still leads the league in passing while averaging 297 yards per game and trails on Carson Wentz and Russell Wilson in touchdown passes. As for Drew Brees, he has not thrown for 300 yards in four straight weeks and has only done so three times this season while throwing for three touchdowns just once and most of that can be contributed to the elite run game that Saints possess. When it comes down to matchups, Cam Newton clearly gets the best of them facing a Bucs team that has allowed a league-high 271.3 yards and ranks 29th in DVOA vs. the pass. Next best matchup goes to Alex Smith who faces a Dolphins team that sits mid-pack when looking at yards per game allowed (222.6) but ranks 27th in DVOA vs. the pass. Of the four, Tom Brady has the worst matchup on paper going against a Bills defense that ranks 12th in DVOA vs. the pass and 4th overall in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position.
Top Target in this Tier – Cam Newton, Alex Smith
Tier 5
Tier 5 gives us four quarterbacks who are all playing on the road this week and all but Matt Ryan are favorites. Matthew Stafford leads the way this season with 18.8 DraftKings points per game but it has been Phillip Rivers crushing value lately averaging 21.6 DraftKings points per game over his last four thanks to posting 20+ in three of those games. No other quarterback in this tier has more than one and Matt Ryan has zero after back to back performances of under 10 DraftKings points.
Rivers and Goff have the best matchups of the four as the Jets rank 22nd in DVOA vs. the pass and 27th in DK points per game allowed while the Titans rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 17th in DK points per game allowed to the position. Ryan gets the worst matchup in this tier facing the Saints who rank 4th in DVOA vs. the pass and 13thin DK points allowed while Stafford’s matchup is in the middle with the Bengals ranking 18th in DVOA vs. the pass and 11th in DK points allowed to the position but have definitely been trending down lately allowing quarterbacks to score an average of 21.1 DK points per game.
Top Targets in this Tier – Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford
Tier 6
Three of the four wide receivers (Hill, Funchess, Cooks) teams in this tier are double-digit favorites which could work against their game scripts a little bit but it will be hard to avoid some of the matchups. For instance, Devin Funchess faces a Bucs team that has allowed the most DraftKings points per game this season. He could also be lower owned here coming off a one-catch week for just 19 yards. The concern Funchess this week is the shoulder injury that has been nagging him as he was held out of practice on Wednesday. If you are looking for consistency then don’t overlook Tyreke Hill in this spot as he has tallied double-digit DK points in six straight and eight of his last 10 games, twice going over 25 points. Over the past four weeks, he has also seen an uptick in his targets(8 per game) and sees a matchup vs. the Dolphins who rank 27th in DVOA vs. the pass.
On the flip side, Brandin Cooks has been trending down lately averaging just six targets per game and has exceeded 75 yards just once in that time. Robert Woods made his return last week after being held out for three weeks due to injury and looked catching six of his seven targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. The Rams are 6.5 point favorites and although Todd Gurley has been red hot, they may need to throw a bit more as the Titans have been much worse against the pass this season ranking 24th in DVOA and 23rd in DraftKings points per game to wideouts.
Both running backs in this tier are in great spots this week as their teams (Panthers, Patriots) are both double-digit home favorites. Dion Lewis is likely in for a bit bigger role this week with Rex Burkhead out a couple weeks with a knee sprain. That is good news considering he has already been getting a nice run with double-digit carries in eight of his last nine games. He also gets an elite matchup vs. the Bills who have allowed 122 rushing yards per game (8th most) and the most DraftKings points per game to running backs this season. Christian McCaffrey leads all running backs with an average of 7.2 targets per game and has been a PPR star with double-digit fantasy points in 11 of his 14 games, going over 20 DK points five times.
Top Targets in this Tier – Dion Lewis, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreke Hill
Tier 7
I will start with the wideouts in this tier and not only does Jarvis Landry lead them all with an average of 16.3 DK points per game this season, he also gets the best matchup this week. He will be facing the Chiefs who have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game and while they rank 17th in DVOA vs. pass, they rank 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wide receivers. You also never have to worry about usage with Landry as he is one of just three players in 2017 to average double-digit targets each week (10.3).
The Bengals top wideout, A.J. Green, is not far behind averaging 8.8 targets per game and has been trending up lately with 10 targets per game over his last four but is coming off a down week where Xavier Rhodes shut him down with just two catches for 30 yards. Things don’t get any easier for Green this week as he will likely see a ton of Darius Slay who ranks as a Top 10 corner on Pro Football Focus.
On the other side of the ball, we have Marvin Jones Jr. who has been extremely consistent lately recording double-digit fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games with 20 or more in four of those games. While the Bengals rank 3rd in DK points per game allowed to wideouts, they have struggled a ton lately allowing a 100-yard receiver in three straight weeks (four total). Josh Gordon has been targeted 27 times in his three games since returning to the Browns and scored once but has yet to have that monster game we are all waiting for, maybe it’s the fact he is now playing sober (boom).
With Tevin Coleman out last week, Devonta Freeman got 24 carries but wasn’t overly impressive with 91 yards (3.8 per carry) but saved his fantasy day with a touchdown. This week it appears Coleman will be back in the mix which will limit Freeman’s carries but the Falcons are currently underdogs which could help him with some targets in the passing game. Jordan Howard has been up and down all season with four performances of 20+ DK points but has also put up six performances under 10 DK points. This week he faces a Browns team that ranks #1 in DVOA vs. the rush but have been trending down lately. The game script could definitely be in his favor as the Bears are currently 6.5 point favorites.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jarvis Landry, Marvin Jones Jr, Jordan Howard
Tier 8
While Marvin Jones has been the consistent piece of the Lions receiving core, Golden Tate has been hit and miss. He has tallied double-digit DK points twice in his last four games but also posted six DK points in the other two games. I mentioned the matchup earlier vs. the Bengals who have allowed four 100-yard receivers in the last three weeks so Tate is fully in play this week.
Robby Anderson was limited in Wednesday’s practice and even if he plays, he should be avoided as he is likely shadowed by PFF’s #1 ranked corner in Casey Hayward. Demaryius Thomas is on my radar this week and has been fairly productive lately catching 20 of his 38 targets for 207 yards and a touchdown. The problem this week is the matchup vs. the Redskins who rank 8th in DVOA vs. the pass and 8th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts.
Cooper Kupp has not been the most consistent fantasy option this season and a lot of that has to do with Todd Gurley running over defenses but Kupp is in a nice spot this week vs. the Titans who rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 23rd in DK points allowed to wideouts. With Julio Jones normally getting a ton of the opposing defenses attention, Mohamed Sanu has thrived on the other side lately with 20+ DK points in two of his last three games. Stay tuned for the injury status, however, as he was limited on Wednesday with a knee injury.
Bengals rookie running back, Joe Mixon, was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and likely to be cleared by the league to return this week. Should he get back on the field, he gets a nice matchup vs. the Lions who have allowed 111 yards rushing per game and rank 29th overall in DK points per game allowed to running backs.
Top Targets in this Tier – Golden Tate, Cooper Kupp, Joe Mixon(if he starts)
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!
Draftkings NFL Cash and GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 14
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 14
Week 14 is not a pretty slate by any means. This week marks the fourth week in a row that we will be without the Steelers offense and will also be missing the Patriots, Saints, and Falcons. There’s a lot of value found at the running back position, so depending on what you do at that position, it will help you differentiate your lineup. Let’s dive into it.
Vegas
Since Vegas lines have become such a huge part of the DFS community and are where most DFS players start their research, I decided to write up a portion outlining the big Vegas numbers. All Vegas totals will be taken from Vegas Insider page on Wednesday.
As if Wednesday night there is no current game lines on the Lions at Bucs and Colts at Bills. Outside of that, this week doesn’t feature any game with a huge spread. The Chargers are the biggest favorite of the week (-6) but still are within a touchdown. The Cowboys (-4), Chiefs (-4), Packers (-3.5), Titans (-3), Texans (-3), Rams (-2.5), Jags (-2.5), Vikings (-2.5), and Jets (-1) are all very marginal favorites this week.
This week doesn’t feature a lot of teams with extremely high team totals. There are nine teams currently implied to score more than three touchdowns, headlined by the Chargers with a team total of 26 points. The Chiefs (25.75), Rams (25.25), Titans (23.5), Texans (23.5), Cowboys (22.75), Eagles (22.75), Bengals (22.25), and Packers (22) round out the teams implied to score more than 21 points.
In regards to game totals, there are three game totals over 45 points. The Eagles at the Rams lead the list with a 48 over/under, followed by KC @ OAK (47.5), and LAC @ WAS (46). Of these three games, the Eagles and Rams game has seen the largest total movement with a 3 point drop from the opening 51 game total.
As with every week, check pack the Vegas Insider page on Sunday morning to get the latest Vegas data.
Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks are very thin this week on the Draftkings main slate. We will be without Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger. Yikes.
Alex Smith (DK $6,500) – I feel like I am chasing my tail after Smith’s 23.48 point performance last week. But I expect most people to flock to Smith due to recency bias and the favorable matchup he has this week against the Raiders. Smith is going up against a Raiders defense that ranks 25th in the league in aFPA. The Raiders are riding a two-game winning streak to put them back into contention for first place in the AFC West, but have faced pedestrian quarterbacks the last two weeks. They held both Geno Smith and Paxton Lynch in check. But before that, they were lit up by Brady (28.6 FP), Cutler (27.4), Taylor (16.7), and Alex Smith (28.68). A lot is riding on this game so Smith will look to snap the four-game losing streak and regain the lead in the West. One stat worth noting if you are playing Smith, with the field, Smith has failed to meet salary expectations 4 of the last six times he was priced at $6,000 range.
Russell Wilson (DK $6,200) – At $6,200 this is the lowest price we’ve seen Russell Wilson since November of 2016. That’s insane when you consider the fact that Wilson leads all quarterbacks in scoring after his bye week. Wilson has been smashing as of late, accumulating at least 24 points in 8 of his last 10 games. Now, this week he’s priced down severely because of his tough matchup on the road against the Jaguars. The Jags rank 1st in the league in aFPA this season and are even more dominant at home than on the road. The Jags have allowed an average of 11.61 Draftking points to opposing QBs at home. When you factor that defense dominance with Wilson’s home/road splits, it doesn’t look like an ideal situation for Wilson. It’s just tough for me to write off Wilson given his production the past 10 games and his dramatic price difference. Wilson is an ideal GPP play to hedge off the field.
Jimmy Garoppolo (DK $5,500) – The lower tier is where I will likely land on quarterbacks this week. Jimmy G got his first start last week and certainly passed the eye test. Although he didn’t throw a touchdown and only scored 11.52 DK points, he completed 70% of his passes and missed the 300-yard bonus by only 7 yards. Outside of that, he looked poised under Shanahan’s offense and was able to cut through the Bears defense with just half a playbook. Now Jimmy G finds himself as a road dog against the Texans who rank 30th in aFPA. The Texan’s defense has struggled this season once JJ Watt went down and this figures to be a close game. I think this game has sneaky shootout potential and like how Garoppolo’s savings round out my lineup.
Cash:
A. Smith, J. Garoppolo, M. Stafford (If active), J. Winston
GPP:
R. Wilson, C. Wentz, J. Goff, B. Gabbert
Running Backs
Running back offers a lot of value and the top tier running backs are all in difficult spots.
LeSean McCoy (DK $7,200) – McCoy is the only running back of the top five priced backs that is expected to exceed his implied projected point based on salary. Unfortunately, as I write this, there is no line out for this game due to the Bills not naming their QB starter. But I expect to be a slight favorite at home, which benefits McCoy. McCoy has a seen his price drop to the low $7,000 for the first time since September of this season. He’s received 15 targets in the last four weeks and figures to see more check downs if Perriman is under center. The Colts rank 30th in aFPA to opposing running backs, which is why I boost McCoy slightly over Gurley for the price savings. McCoy is still a wait and see based on the Vegas line, but I like him in the higher tier.
Lamar Miller (DK $5,800) – I mentioned earlier that I like this game as a sneaky shootout. Lamar Miller is in theory in a good spot. He’s a 3 point home favorite and is going up against a 49er defense that ranks 31st in aFPA this season. I would note that Miller has only carried the ball more than 20 times once in his last six games and has yet to eclipse the 100-yard mark this season. The 49ers have only allowed 100-yard rushers to 3 running backs (Gurley, Elliott, and Peterson) this season, so their ranking may be a little misleading. I do like that Miller is averaging more at least 3 targets the last four games, but he hasn’t entirely been efficient with those opportunities. Miller is a decent cash gameplay if you need the salary relief from the top tier and want to differentiate from the value plays I’ll talk about next.
Giovani Bernard (DK $3,100) – The free square of the week. Bernard is the chalk running back this week assuming Mixon is out this week. He is near minimum price and was slashing through the Steelers defense on Monday night. There’s not much more to say here other than Bernard is near min salary and has 20+ touch upside against a Bears defense that is banged up on the defensive line. If Mixon is out, just lock Bernard in and eat the massive ownership.
Cash:
G. Bernard, T. Gurley, M. Gordon, L. McCoy, L. Miller, R. Barber (Doug Martin inactive), J. Howard
GPP:
K. Hunt, S. Perine, M. Lynch, A. Morris
Wide receivers
Wide Receivers are where you will more than likely differentiate your lineup. There are good plays at the top and in the mid-range.
DeAndre Hopkins (DK $8,500) – Hopkins is a target monster and is going up against the 49ers who rank 16th in aFPA. Hopkins has received more than 10 targets in 7 of the last 8 games. He’s exceeded value in all but one game this season and should have a big game against the 49ers secondary. If you’re paying up for any wide receiver, don’t over think it.
Josh Gordon (DK $5,500) – Every real football fan was watching Gordon last week to see if he would show any signs of the superstar he was when he first came into the league. Well if you ask me, Gordon looked a bit rusty and had some issues catching some of the balls but saw a significant amount of targets. Last week Gordon went up against a tough Chargers secondary and still saw 11 targets. This week he has what comes across as a dream matchup against the Packers who rank 32nd in aFPA. Gordon will likely be heavily owned given his talent level and his good matchup, I’m just not sold on him yet. I also don’t see how Corey Coleman ($4,100) who led the team in receiving before Gordon was activated completely disappears with 0 catches. I understand why people are on Gordon, but I might be lower than the field on him.
Sterling Shepard (DK $5,300) – I think he’s my preferred pivot off Gordon. Before his injury that sidelined him for 3 weeks, he was averaging 12 targets in week 7 and 8. Last week he disappointed with only 3 catches, but that was with Geno Smith under center. Now he’s $1,700 cheaper, in a good matchup, and has Eli Manning back under center. He’s going up against the Cowboys who rank 25th in aFPA allowed to wide receivers. I like the Giants to keep this game close, so I expect Shepard to get the volume he saw before he got hurt.
Trent Taylor (DK $3,300) – My favorite punt play at wide receiver. With Jimmy Garoppolo he came up big in what Kyle Shanahan called his “Michael Jordan game given he was puking before the game last week. Sickness and all, the rookie came away with catching 6 of his 6 targets for 92 yards and looked like Julian Edelman for Garoppolo early last year.
Cash:
D. Hopkins, L. Fitzgerald, A. Green, A. Thielen, J. Gordon, G. Tate, S. Shepard, E. Sanders
GPP:
K. Allen, T. Hill, D. Bryant, D. Adams, M. Crabtree, S. Diggs, C. Coleman, G. Tate, M. Goodwin, D. Thomas,
Tight End:
A lot of value opens up at tight end this week. As always you can be contrarian by paying up for the studs like Kelce, but this week the way to go for cash games is down at the barrel.
Stephen Anderson (DK $3,200) – Anderson had a breakout game last week against the Titans filling in for Bruce Ellington and Cj Fiedorowicz. Anderson saw 12 targets and caught 5 of them for 79 yards and a touchdown. Anderson was a wide receiver in college and is a freak athlete and will figure to see work out of the slot this week. It’s worth monitoring if Will Fuller will play this week as that may eat into some of his targets. But Anderson should be a popular value play.
Trey Burton (DK $2,900) – Zach Ertz is in the concussion protocol. At this point there isn’t much being reported other than Ertz is with the team. IF Ertz is inactive, this opens up a ton of value at tight end, and Burton will almost be another lock and play. When Ertz missed week 9 against the Broncos, Burton filled in with 2 catches for 41 yards and a touchdown pass.
Cash:
T. Kelce, J.Witten, S. Anderson, T. Burton (Ertz), A. Seferian-Jenkins
GPP:
H. Henry, K. Rudolph, C. Clay, J. Graham
Defense
Cincinnati Bengals (DK $3,300) – I like the Bengals this week as a home favorite against a team that has an implied total of 16.25.
New York Jets (DK $3,300) – The Broncos offensive line is vulnerable right now. That means Leonard Williams will have several opportunities to get to Trevor Siemian.
Cash:
Bengals, Packers, Jets
GPP:
Jaguars, Titans, Vikings
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14
Tier 1
While the Chiefs picked up their fourth loss in a row, both Travis Kelce (4 of 8, 94 yards, 2 TD) and Tyreke Hill (6 of 9, 185 yards, 2 TD) had monster fantasy days last week vs. the Jets. This week they get another plus matchup vs. a Raiders defense that has given up the 10th most passing yards per game (241.1) and rank dead last in DVOA vs. the pass in 2017. They share the targets from Alex Smith pretty equally but I favor Kelce slightly here as the Raiders rank 15th in DraftKings points per game to wide receivers but 26th vs. tight ends. Adam Thielen sits sixth overall in targets per game(9.3) this season and has been incredibly consistent with seven games with double-digit fantasy points and six with 15+ points but draws a tough matchup against the Panthers defense that ranks eighth in DVOA vs. the pass. The game also has one of the lowest totals(41) of the week. All things considered, Thielen could be the low owned play in this tier. Finally, we have LeSean McCoy who had another productive week as he posted 93 yards on 15 carries and his third straight double-digit fantasy week. At the time of writing this, there is no Vegas total yet but I would fully expect the Bills to be at least three-point home favorites vs. the Colts giving McCoy a shot at a high workload this week.
Top Targets in this Tier – Travis Kelce, LeSean McCoy
Tier 2
Marvin Jones easily gets the best matchup in this tier facing the Bucs who have allowed the second-most passing yards per game (267.3) and rank dead last in DraftKings points per game to wideouts. The issue this week is the status of his quarterback Matthew Stafford who left last weeks game with a hand injury after being stepped on. If Stafford is back behind center I like Jones a lot but will probably fade if it’s backup Jake Rudock taking the snaps. I have strong feeling A.J. Green will be the chalk in this tier coming off a big game vs. the Steelers on Monday night where he caught seven of his 16 targets for 77 yards and two touchdowns (could have been three if not for a bad penalty). He has now caught at least one touchdown in three of his last four and seven of his last 10 games. Jameis Winston returned to action last week and I was expecting a big game from Evans who has been a target monster all season but it never came to fruition as Evans only caught two of his six targets for 33 yards. Evans will be in a tough spot this week as he will likely draw shadow coverage from Darius Slay who ranks as the #12 cornerback on PFF. If he was somehow able to avoid complete shadow coverage, I think he could be a sneaky play as the Lions have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game(245.3) this season. Michael Crabtree returns from his one-game suspension this week and gets a plus matchup against the Chiefs who rank 24th overall in DVOA vs. the pass and 31st in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. The Raiders are also four-point underdogs so the game script could be perfect for Derek Carr to see 35+ pass attempts.
Top Targets in this Tier – A.J. Green, Michael Crabtree
Tier 3
Kareem Hunt was once again unable to take advantage of a plus matchup and will easily be the lowest owned option in this tier as I am sure most people(including myself) are tired of waiting for the return of his early-season success. Devante Adams has been Brett Hundley’s top target but the passing game was not needed last week in a 26-20 win over the Bucs as the Packers rushed for 199 yards and picked up two defensive touchdowns. Look for Adams to get back on track this week against the Browns who rank 26th in DVOA vs. the pass. I talked about Marvin Jones in the last tier and the same sentiment goes for Golden Tate. He has a great matchup against the Bucs but at this time it is uncertain if Matthew Stafford will be back with an injured throwing hand. Stay tuned for more news. Josh Gordon made his return to the football field last week and was impressive considering he sat out nearly three years. He promptly made a ridiculous catch along the sideline and ended up catching four of his team-high 11 targets for 85 yards. This week he faces a Green Bay team that has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game(242.9), rank 21st in DVOA vs. the pass, and rank 29th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts.
Top Targets in this Tier – Devante Adams, Josh Gordon
Tier 4
I mentioned Matthew Stafford in previous tiers when talking about Marvin Jones and Golden Tate and the update here is that he was limited Wednesday with his bruised hand. He is one of the toughest players in the league and a must-win for the team so I expect to see him on the field but will be avoiding the Lions offense for fantasy. Next up we have a huge matchup between the Vikings and Panthers and very similar value coming from both quarterbacks. Both Cam Newton and Case Keenum have put up 17+ DraftKings points in four straight games but Cam has displayed a little more upside with a 35 point ceiling. A lot of that has to do with his ability to run the ball, especially around the endzone. Both defenses are stout and rank Top 10 in fantasy points against the quarterback and with playoff and top seeds on the line, I fully expect a low-scoring defensive battle on Sunday so neither QB is that intriguing for fantasy. Without Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree last week, Derek Carr was very serviceable(22 of 36 for 287 and 1 TD) leading the Raiders to a big win over the Giants. He now gets both his receivers back and will face a Chiefs team that has given up the fifth-most passing yards per game(252.8) and rank 26th overall when looking at DraftKings points per game to the position. Finally, we have Jimmy Garoppolo who gets the best matchup of all the options in this tier as the Texans rank dead last in DraftKings points per game allowed to the quarterback. The only issue here is that it’s his second career start and he lacks options in the receiving game.
Top Target in this Tier – Derek Carr
Tier 5
Starting at the top Dak Prescott has been the best option on paper in this tier with five games of 20+ DraftKings points and has thrown for multiple touchdowns seven times. The issue has been the loss of Ezekiel Elliot as he has only done it once since losing his star running back. He does get a nice matchup this week vs. a Giants team that has given up the third-most passing yards per game(260.2) and rank 30th in DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks. I fully expect 250+ passing yards and multiple touchdown passes as the Cowboys still sit in a position to grab a wildcard spot. Next up is my other top option under center this week with Jameis Winston who returned after a three-week absence. He looked pretty darn good completing 21 of 32 passes for 270 yards and two touchdowns. He did this without really getting much from Mike Evans(2 of 6 for 33 yards) and I think he will be going back to his top option this week with a ton of volume. Believe it or not, Andy Dalton has arguably been the most consistent option in this tier lately with multiple touchdowns in four straight and six of his last seven starts. The only issue is the upside is limited as he thrown for 300+ yards and topped 20 fantasy points just once this season. I don’t really have strong feelings for any of the bottom three options but if I had to choose one of them it would be Deshone Kizer who now has the services of Josh Gordon who made his return last week and was heavily targeted and delivered with 85 yards. Despite being inconsistent and inaccurate (52.5% completions), Kizer has shown some upside with his legs and topped 20 fantasy points twice in his last four starts. This week he faces a Green Bay team that has given up the seventh-most passing yards per game(242.9) and rank 19th in DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jameis Winston, Deshone Kizer
Tier 6
If you are looking for volume, it will be impossible to ignore what Evan Engram has been doing. Over the last seven games, he has tallied 59 targets and recorded 15 or more fantasy points five times with a season-high 22.9 points last week with Geno Smith under center. This week he gets Eli Manning back and with Sterling Shepard banged up, should once again see lots of volume. Christian McCaffrey should also see a ton of volume this week for two reasons. First of all, Jonathan Stewart is banged up(toe, ankle, foot) and didn’t practice Wednesday. Second, the Vikings defense should have a nice handle on the passing game downfield meaning we could see Cam dump it off to the running back quite a bit this week. Lamar Miller has been a bit of a disappointment from an upside standpoint this season but has displayed a consistent floor with 50+ rushing yards in all but one game and double-digit DraftKings points in all but two games this season. He gets a near elite matchup this week vs. the 49ers who have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game(123.9) and rank 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs. Jamaal Williams has taken over as the Packers #1 back lately with 20+ rushing attempts in three of his last four games and broke the 100-yard mark last week vs. the Bucs. He has also scored in back to back games. The matchup is a downgrade this week as the Browns have actually been really good against the rush as they are one of just nine teams to allow under 100 yards per game for the season. Alfred Morris has also done a fine job as a backup who has stepped in due to the suspension to Ezekiel Elliot. He is coming off his best game of the season last week when he received 27 rushing attempts and posted 127 yards and a touchdown. He will likely see the same kind of volume this week against a Giants defense that has allowed a league-high 130.7 yards per game on the ground.
Top Targets in this Tier – Evan Engram, Alfred Morris, Christian McCaffrey
Tier 7
A couple things stand out in this tier starting with the matchup for Devin Funchess. He will be shadowed for most of the game by Xavier Rhodes who is coming off a terrific game against the Falcons as he completely shut down Julio Jones. The other note here is the that Amari Cooper cleared the concussion protocol but still missed Wednesday’s practice due to an ankle injury and is still listed as questionable. If he were to suit up and get on the field, I like him for a low owned option. Carlos Hyde does not get the greatest matchup as the Texans have allowed the 10th fewest rushing yards per game and rank 4th in DraftKings points allowed to backs but he does have somewhat of a safe floor as he has been targeted a ton lately with 49 over his last six games. He has also put up double-digit fantasy points in nine of his 12 games this season and 20 or more four times. Marshawn Lynch is another running back on my radar this week as he is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season and he has scored in three of his last four games. He also gets a plus matchup vs. the Chiefs who have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (129.4).
Top Targets in this Tier – Marshawn Lynch, Carlos Hyde
Tier 8
The hamstring injury for Sterling Shepard is something to monitor as Sunday approaches as he did not practice on Wednesday. If he suits up he gets a nice matchup vs. the Cowboys who rank 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. Jordan Howard failed to bounce back last week as he tallied just 38 yards on the ground but gets another nice matchup to get back on the horse facing a Bengals defense that has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game(123.8) and ranks 22nd in DraftKings points per game to running backs. The only issue here might be getting a score as this game has the lowest Vegas total of the week(38). Duke Johnson let us down last week with just three DK points but has been a consistent floor play all season with eight double-digit DK point games thanks to his target share in the offense. The Vikings running backs have a tough matchup this week facing a Panthers team who has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game(88.6) so I would lean McKinnon who leads the way in the passing game between him and Latavius Murray with an average of 4.5 per game on the season. Both tight ends get plus matchups this week as the Bills rank 24th and the Giants 31st in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. I lean Jack Doyle here as he comes in ahead with 6.8 targets per game to Witten’s 5.7 and Doyle has also tallied double-digit DK points in four of his last six games.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jordan Howard, Jack Doyle, Duke Johnson
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 13
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 13
Tier 1
As it does every week, the first tier presents some very tough decisions. DeAndre Hopkins leads the way with 21.3 DraftKings points per game this season while averaging a crazy 11.4 targets per game, trailing only Antonio Brown in that category. Despite losing his star quarterback, Hopkins is also just one of four wideouts with 1,000 or more yards this season and since Watson went down in week 8 has gained 75 or more yards in all four games with 100 or more twice. Hopkins also gets the best matchup of the three wideouts facing a Titans team that ranks 24th in DVOA vs. pass and 26th in DK points per game allowed to the position. Sticking with the wideouts, the other target monster in this tier has been Adam Thielen who is tied for fourth with 9.7 per game and is one of those four wideouts with 1,000 or more receiving yards this season. The only issue for the Thielen and the Vikings passing attack is the Falcons defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per game(207.9) and DK points per game to allowed to wideouts. Brandin Cooks has only seen double-digit targets once this season but has been coming on strong recently with 74 or more yards in three straight games and has scored a touchdown in back to back games. Cooks also gets a tough matchup this week vs. the Bills defense that has held opponents under 200 yards passing in three of their last four games and rank 11thin DVOA vs. the pass overall but the good news is that Cooks has the GOAT, Tom Brady, throwing him passes. Next up, we have Leonard Fournette who has shown us signs of dominance with four 100+ yard games this season and signs of being shut down as he has been held under 50 yards three including twice in the last three weeks. This week he should most definitely be on your radar as the Jags are at home vs. a Colts team that has been decent vs. the run ranked 11th in DVOA but has allowed the seventh-most DK points per game to running backs thanks to 572 yards allowed through the air(4th worst).
Top Targets in this Tier – Leonard Fournette, Brandin Cooks
Tier 2
I am going to start with the tight ends here in the second tier. We have two elite options in Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce but they are in completely different situations. Gronk is coming off a big week where he caught five of his eight targets for 82 yards and scored two touchdowns while Kelce was a product of a struggling Chiefs offense as he caught three of four targets for just 39 yards last week. They both get decent matchups vs. teams allowing 11 or more DK points per game to the position but Kelce gets the slight edge as the Jets have been worse overall ranking 21st in DVOA vs. the pass while the Bills rank 11th. Ownership will definitely lean towards Gronk here because of last week’s numbers and while a player’s past performance vs. a team is somewhat irrelevant as players and systems change over the years, this stat is just amazing to look at (via @evansilva).
Rob Gronkowski, who is from Buffalo, has played 6 career games @ BUF. His stat lines:
5/109/1
7/113/1
7/94/0
5/104/1
7/109/2
4/54/2— Evan Silva (@evansilva) November 27, 2017
After the tight ends, we have running back LeSean Mccoy who has a nice matchup vs. the Patriots who have allowed 115.1 rush yards per game and rank 29th in DVOA vs. the rush. The game script isn’t exactly in his favor as the Bills are 7.5 point dogs but and even worse, McCoy’s targets have been going down lately with five or less in four straight games including two weeks where he saw just one target. Despite leading all players in this tier with 17.2 DK points per week, he will likely be the lowest owned and makes a contrarian option. Wideout Mike Evans has been a target monster all season, with or without Jameis Winston, and has received double-digits in four of his last five games. He has tallied 75 or more yards receiving in five of his 10 games this season but has failed to break the 100-yard mark to this point. The good news is that quarterback Jameis Winston has resumed throwing and could make the start this week vs. the Packers who have allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game, rank 22nd in DVOA vs. the pass, and have allowed the second-most DK points per game to wideouts.
Top Targets in this Tier – Rob Gronkowski, Mike Evans
Tier 3
I was all over Kareem Hunt last week in a great bounce-back spot and he continued to disappoint fantasy owners with 11 carries for 17 yards. That makes six straight weeks without a 100-yard game and eight straight games without a touchdown. While the matchup seems decent facing the Jets who are allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game(120.4) it isn’t the greatest from a fantasy perspective as they rank 8th overall in DK points per game allowed to running backs as they have done well limiting the touchdowns. Tevin Coleman has been excellent lately with touchdowns in five straight games but will not only see his backfield partner, Devonta Freeman, back on the field this week but will also face a tough Vikings defense that has allowed the least DraftKings points per game to running backs. Jordan Howard might see some lower than normal ownership this week after a brutal game against the Eagles where he rushed for just six yards, albeit the Bears were trailing the entire game. He gets an elite matchup against the 49ers who have given up the third-most rushing yards per game(129.5) and rank dead last in DK points per game allowed to running backs.
If you are looking to go the wide receiver route in this tier, there are two excellent options in Davante Adams and Robbie Anderson. Anderson has been incredibly consistent with at least one touchdown in five straight games and double-digit DraftKings points in six straight games. He faces a Chiefs defense that has fallen off big time this season(Eric Berry effect) and has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game(245.6) and have allowed the most DraftKings points per game to wideouts. Ever since Aaron Rodgers went down in Green Bay, Davante Adams has emerged as backup quarterback Brett Hundley’s favorite option as he leads the team in that time with 52 targets, three touchdowns, and three straight games with 80 or more yards. He gts an even better matchup than Anderson facing the Bucs who have allowed a league-high 284.6 passing yards per game and the most DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jordan Howard, Robby Anderson
Tier 4
First of all, let’s touch on Matt Stafford who had his ankle rolled up on during the Thanksgiving game vs. the Vikings. He returned to the game but looked in pain but said this week it is feeling better. He will most likely play this week but gets the worst matchup of this group facing a Ravens team that has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game(189.9) and also the second-fewest DraftKings points per game. Best to fade Stafford and the Lions this week. The next toughest matchup in this group is Matt Ryan who is coming off his third 300+ yard game of the season but will face a Vikings defense that has allowed the 11th fewest passing yards per game(214.9) and sixth-fewest DraftKings points per game allowed to the quarterback position.On the other side of the ball, we have one of the biggest surprises of the season in Case Keenum who has gotten better each week and has thrown for 280+ yards in four straight games with nine touchdowns. He also gets a tougher matchup on the road this week facing the Falcons defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per game(207.9). Despite leading this tier in DraftKings points per game, Alex Smith is likely to be a contrarian play this week after struggling big time lately after an MVP-type start to the season. Over his last four games, he has averaged just 223.5 passing yards per game and thrown for just four touchdowns. The matchup is average as he faces a Jets team ranked in the middle of the pack in passing yards per game and 19th in DraftKings points per game. The positive for Smith is that he has two elite options in Travis Kelce and Tyreke Hill so I could definitely see a bounce back game here. Next up is Josh McCown coming off his biggest game of the year where he threw for 307 yards and three touchdowns and makes a terrific stack with Robby Anderson in the previous tier. The quarterback with the best matchup in this group is Marcus Mariota who faces a Texans defense that allows 243 passing yards per game(24th) and ranks dead last in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. The issue with Mariota is that he has only topped 300 yards twice this season and he has also only thrown for multiple touchdowns twice.
Top Targets in this Tier – Josh McCown, Alex Smith
Tier 5
Let’s address the Tampa Bay quarterback situation right off the top. It will be Jameis Winston making his return to action this week after sitting out three straight games with a shoulder injury. This is definitely an upgrade for Mike Evans in the first tier and a great matchup as the Packers defense has allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game(244.1) and don’t have one cornerback ranked inside the Top 80 on the PFF rankings. It won’t be a safe option stacking Winston and Evans but the upside is through the roof. If you are not playing Winston in this tier the options are pretty thin and even riskier. Blake Bortles get a great matchup vs. the Colts who have allowed the third-most passing yards per game(266.3) but the Jags are big favorites and most likely won’t need Bortles to do much. Then we got Tyrod Taylor who lacks overall upside averaging just 184 passing yards per game but he does give us added value with his legs as he ranks third in rushing among quarterbacks with 302 yards and three touchdowns. The thing I like the most here is that Bills are underdogs and will need Taylor to likely throw or run a little bit more this week to keep up with Tom Brady and the Pats. Brett Hundley is also in a pretty nice spot this week in a tight spread at home vs. the Bucs and is coming off his best game since taking over for the injured Aaron Rodgers. He put up 245 yards and three touchdowns vs. a tough Steelers defense and now gets a prime matchup vs. a Bucs defense that has allowed a league-high 284.6 passing yards per game and the sixth-most DraftKings points per game to the position. Finally, we have Jimmy Garoppolo making his first start of the season and it will be tough to tell what we are going to get. He made a final drive appearance last week and completed both of his passes with a touchdown in garbage time but now goes on the road to Chicago to face a defense ranked eighth overall in DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jameis Winston, Brett Hundley
Tier 6
From a PPR perspective, I love what Carlos Hyde brings to the table this season as he trails only Christian McCaffrey and Le’Veon Bell in targets with 73 on the season(6.6 per game). This is great news for quarterback Jimmy G making his first start of the season. Hyde has also rushed the ball pretty well this season despite the lack of total yards(game script issues as 49ers are not a good team) as he is averaging 4.1 yards per attempt and while he also shown us his upside with two multi-touchdown games. Marvin Jones gets a tough matchup vs. a Ravens defense that ranks third in DraftKings points allowed to wideouts but he has been dealing with tough matchup pretty well this season and is coming off a huge Thanksgiving game vs. the Vikings Xavier Rhodes as he totaled 109 yards and two touchdowns. He has scored at least one touchdown in three of his last four games(five total). I prefer him over his teammate Golden Tate. Tyreke Hill has been a product of a struggling Chiefs offense and I thought last week he was going to breakout but he was unable to do much with his 11 targets as he caught seven of them for just 41 yards. I am going back to the well again this week with Hill as he gets another good matchup vs. the Jets who rank 21st in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. Stefon Diggs has been average this season as he has somewhat taken a backseat to Adam Thielen who has been getting the better matchups out of the slot and has become Case Keenum’s favorite target. Lamar Miller has somewhat disappointed this season, from a rushing standpoint, averaging 3.7 yards per carry with three touchdowns but has made up his value receiving with another three touchdowns and has tallied double-digit DraftKings points in all but two games. The issue this week is that he is dealing with a knee inury and was absent from Wednesday’s practice. Stay tuned for the Texans late-week injury status report.
Top Targets in this Tier – Carlos Hyde, Marvin Jones Jr, Tyreke Hill
Tier 7
There is a lot to like about Jarvis Landry in this tier as he not only sits third overall in targets per game(10.6) but has scored a touchdown in six of his last eight games. The matchup is a big downgrade this week vs. the Broncos who rank fourth in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts but looking at DVOA they rank outside the top half of the league in 19th. I think the matchup helps keep him a bit lower owned than he should be this week. Mohamed Sanu is coming off a pretty big game last week as he not only caught eight of his nine targets for 64 yards but he also completed a 51-yard touchdown pass to Julio Jones. I don’t see the trickery happening this week but I do like the matchup as Julio Jones will be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes with help over the top leaving Sanu to go up against Terrance Newman for most of his snaps. Next up, we got Rex Burkhead who was out-carried 15-12 by Dion Lewis while Lewis also gained 112 yards to Burkhead’s 50 but it was Burkhead getting the scores, one on the ground and one through the air. The risk is there with both Pats running backs but they also have upside and should be low owned because of it. My suggestion would be to build multiple lineups with your favorite plays in other tiers and split the backs in this tier into a couple lineups.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jarvis Landry, Mohamed Sanu, Dion Lewis
Tier 8
Demaryius Thomas has been getting his share of targets this season(8.8 per game) and leads the team but will be hard to trust with the carousel of quarterbacks in Denver. The matchup is a tough one to read as the Dolphins corners rank poorly on PFF’s rankings and have allowed 11 touchdowns to wideouts this season(11th most) but they also have allowed the 11th fewest DK points per game as they have done a good job limiting the overall yardage. I think it has a lot to do with teams running the ball on them regularly. After last week’s stink by Thomas, I think he could go low-owned this week. All aboard! Jerick McKinnon sits second in average DK points per game this season in this tier but has been trending down lately with Latavius Murray averaging over four yards per attempt in three straight games while also adding four touchdowns. His teammate, tight end Kyle Rudolph, has been playing well lately catching 20 of his 25 targets over the past four games with three touchdowns and has recorded double-digit DK points in three of those four games. The issue this week is the tough matchup as he is likely to see a ton of coverage from Keanu Neal who ranks as one of the top safeties/linebackers who takes on tight ends in coverage. DeMarco Murray is a huge risk splitting time with Derrick Henry and has failed to break 20 yards rushing in three of his last four games despite getting the goal line carries and three scores. I will be avoiding this week. The other play I am looking at in this tier is Kenyan Drake despite the tough matchup as he is likely to get a heavy workload with Damian Williams likely out with a shoulder injury.
Top Targets in this Tier – Demaryius Thomas, Kenyan Drake
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!
Fantasy Football 101: Draft Picks Strategies and Running Back Concerns
Last week I wrote up a report on how to approach your fantasy draft before your draft day. Whether this is your first ever fantasy football draft or your tenth, that guide will help you craft a team that will put you in a good position to win your league with the proper draft pick strategies.
Now, being that it is “National Draft Week,” I’ll look into providing you with a strategy for wherever you may be picking, either 1-12 through the first five rounds in this installment of Fantasy Football 101. A lot can be pre-decided if you know where you are picking in your fantasy draft, but the later picks in the draft should generate some discussion.
Generally, a top 5 pick guarantees you a top tier running back to build your team around. Unfortunately, that’s not the case this season. This season the “top tier” running backs ranked 3 through 12 all have question marks. That leaves us with two consensus running backs, Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. Those two will be the first two players off the board in 98% of leagues. There’s no justification needed to draft either of these guys in the first round because they’re so far and beyond better than the next best running back. I’m going to point out some concerns over the next running backs with their average draft position (ADP) within the first two rounds.
LeSean McCoy – Ever since the news about the suspension of Ezekiel Elliott, McCoy has moved up to the number three ranked running back. While McCoy provides lots of upside for the number three ranked back, he has some concerns heading into the 2017 season. McCoy plays for the dumpster fire that is the Buffalo Bills. The Bills offense will be managed by former Denver Broncos Coordinator, Rick Dennison. Dennison ranked in the middle of the pack in run-pass percentage last season with the Broncos, which is surprising considering they had a subpar quarterback for most of the season. It will be interesting to see how much Dennison decides to utilize McCoy in his offense that no longer has a receiver that could stretch the field. That is because the Bills also just traded away their number one receiver and cornerback, so it’s anyone’s guess what direction this team is heading and if they even are looking to win this season. The Bills could find themselves out of several games early and often this season, and that doesn’t bode well for McCoy’s touch numbers.
Verdict: McCoy is a talented back that has finished in the top three of running back scoring in three of the last four seasons. His talent isn’t questioned, it’s the team that surrounds him that makes me skeptical of using a top 3 or even 5 pick on him with the direction of the organization. I’d be willing to pick him as early as 8th overall.
Melvin Gordon – Like McCoy, Melvin Gordon provides a good deal of upside, which is why I have him ranked as my number four running back. He had a nice bounce back season after a terrible rookie year in 2015. With Anthony Lynn as the new head coach, Gordon could be a lock to have his first 1,000-yard season. The biggest flaws with Melvin Gordon is his offensive line. Pro Football Focus ranked the Los Angeles Chargers as the 21st ranked offensive line in the league. The Chargers did their best to upgrade their offensive line by adding Russell Okung and Dan Feeney but whether or not they have a good year remains to be seen. Gordon is also coming off of a knee injury that cut his season short last season. He didn’t have surgery in the offseason, so that’s a good sign, but owners who are investing a top 10 pick would want to keep an eye on that knee this preseason.
Verdict: Gordon plays for a Charger offense that has plenty of weapons to keep the defense honest, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Gordon has a breakout season. He relied heavily on touchdowns last season so if his TD numbers don’t translate into this season he could see a drop in points. There’s no other running back on the Chargers roster that will take away from Gordon’s reps, and Anthony Lynn has proven to feed his running backs the ball with 14 consecutive 1,000-yard rushers in his career. I can justify taking Gordon as the 10th pick.
Devonta Freeman – Freeman has been a pleasant surprise over the past two seasons. He’s a dual threat running back that plays for the most dangerous offense in the NFL. However, there are reasons to be wary of drafting him in the top ten. Freeman’s touches last year were down from his 2015 breakout season. Last year Freeman had 58 fewer touches than he did in 2015, that is due in large part to Tevin Coleman. Also, Atlanta lost their offensive guru Kyle Shanahan and replaced him with Steve Sarkisian. There’s no telling how Sarkisian will run this high powered offense, but that could mean that Freeman loses some pass catching opportunities, which hurts his value.
Verdict: Freeman is the more talented back out of the two in Atlanta. He received most of the goal line work last season and didn’t have to worry about eight men in the box with Matt Ryan under center. Freeman is a borderline top 12 pick in my opinion as the wide receivers available at the end of the first round are too consistent to pass up. He’s missed time this preseason due to concussion concerns so that would be a situation to monitor moving forward.
DeMarco Murray – Murray had a nice bounce back season last year after an atrocious season with the Eagles. Despite being 29, he didn’t falter with production, totaling over 1,500 total yards last season. The concern here is with his role in the team moving forward. We saw rookie running back Derrick Henry steal some of his touches last year, and he was producing with the opportunities. Henry had 123 touches and scored five times last season. Being that it’s Henry’s second year in the offense, you can expect to see him eat into Murray’s production particularly in the second half of the season. Aside from Henry’s presence, the Titans also revamped their passing game by drafting Corey Davis and signing Eric Decker in free agency. Mariota has plenty of offensive weapons now with Davis, Decker, Delanie Walker, and Rishard Matthews, so it’s fair to question Murray’s workload this season.
Verdict: Murray will still be the featured back in this backfield, but barring injury or a breakout season by Henry who knows what his workload could look like. The Titans like to run the ball, but with a revamped passing game perhaps the offense becomes more balanced this season. Nonetheless, Murray is still a solid option if you’re drafting at the later part of your draft. I see Murray as a top 14 pick in non-PPR format.
Ezekiel Elliott – This is pretty clear, the suspension really killed his ADP. After being hit with a six-game suspension, Elliott went from number 3 overall to a borderline second rounder, in my opinion. There’s no doubt about Elliott’s talent and supporting cast, but the fact that he’s going to miss half of the fantasy season puts teams who draft him in a difficult spot.
Verdict: Elliott was one of the few running backs that could look to improve off of a stellar rookie season. The suspension is certainly something that should weigh down his value, but if you do decide to take him, make sure you’re drafting Darren McFadden as a handcuff in the later rounds. There are too many solid wide receivers to justify taking Elliott in the first or even early second round. I see Elliot drafted within the top 24 picks, but even that could be a reach. There’s no doubt that he has the talent to be a top 5 back. But risking half of the fantasy season on one player is a risk too steep for me to get over. Elliott would need to fall dramatically for me to own him this season.
These next few guys I’m going to bunch into one category because they all fall under the same tree.
Jay Ajayi, Jordan Howard, Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, and Isaiah Crowell – All these running backs round out the top 12 of the running back position. What do all these backs have in common? They all play for bad teams. Every one of these running backs plays for a team that has quarterback questions. This leads to more men in the box and less running lanes. It also will be difficult for running backs to get consistent touches on a weekly basis when their team projected always to be trailing. It isn’t as if these running backs are multi dimensional. For the exception of Gurley and Crowell, none of these backs caught more than 40 passes last season so, for the most part, they are dependent on rushing yards and touchdowns.
Verdict: We know that each of these running backs possesses high upside. We saw Ajayi’s 200-yard weeks, Howard and Crowell had nice seasons last year for terrible teams, Gurley was an absolute stud two years ago, and Fournette is considered the best running back out of this rookie class. They just aren’t as safe as the wide receivers available in their draft range.
If I’d have to go with two of these backs, I’d say my favorite would be Gurley and Crowell. Gurley had a terrible follow-up to his rookie season, but now with new head coach Sean McVay and an upgraded offensive line, it’ll be interesting to see how McVay incorporates Gurley into the offense. The Rams offense added a few offensive weapons in Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins so if Jared Goff can make a leap perhaps Gurley can have another big season. Isaiah Crowell had a sneaky good season last year, which is why I like him. I’ve seen Crowell fall on draft boards because he plays for the Browns but here’s the thing. The Browns actually come into the season with the number 2 ranked offensive line according to PFF.com. Although the Browns are likely to be terrible yet again, Crowell has established himself as the feature back in Cleveland over Duke Johnson and should score the majority of the points that Clevland scores this season.
Recap:
The Running Back position is the most important position in fantasy football. This is a position where it’s difficult to find production when you miss on top players. This year is not easy just jamming in the top running back in your first two picks. Aside from the creme of the crop, the other top running backs have some issues that you should at least consider before investing your first pick on one of them. When you compare that to the depth of top wide receiver position, it’s tough to justify forcing a running back to your team in the early rounds. It really depends on where you draft and who’s available, so I’ll show you how I’d approach a draft based on the different draft slots available.
Live Draft
The picks below were taken from a draft that I participated in earlier this week where I picked 7th. I’ll add some input on each team’s picks through the first five rounds.
Team 1
1.01 – Le’Veon Bell (David Johnson)
2.12 – Dez Bryant
3.01 – Demaryius Thomas
4.12 – Larry Fitzgerald
5.01 -Jordan Reed
What sticks out to me is Bell over Johnson, but there really is no right or wrong answer here. Picking at the top of the draft is always difficult to find a solid RB 2. I can understand how this team went WR in three consecutive picks.
Team 2
1.02 – David Johnson
2.11 – Doug Baldwin
3.02 – Rob Gronkowski
4.11 – Danny Woodhead
5.02 – Jarvis Landry
Solid start. Again this shows that when you pick early in the draft, it’s hard to find a decent RB 2 in the first three rounds. I think this team made out okay by drafting Woodhead in the fourth round.
Team 3
1.03 – Antonio Brown (Julio Jones)
2.10 – Leonard Fournette
3.03 – DeAndre Hopkins
4.10 – Frank Gore
5.03 – Delanie Walker
This team was a prime example of drafting a player based on the need to fill every starting spot right away. Drafting Walker was a reach if I’ve ever seen one. Walker has an ADP of going in the 8th round and the fact that he got taken in the 5th shows this team panicked when they saw the TE position thinning out and drafted by need, not by value. Also, I can’t see drafting Hopkins over Pryor or Crowell, but maybe this team knows something I don’t.
Team 4
1.04 – Mike Evans (Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr.)
2.09 – Ezekiel Elliott (Dez Bryant)
3.04 – Terrelle Pryor
4.09 – Bilal Powell
5.04 – Mark Ingram
This team took the chance to draft Elliott. Elliott was drafted in the late second round, which is right around where I’d expect him to go. My issue with this is that he didn’t do that great of a job covering his grounds by drafting Ingram and Powell, both are backs that split time and don’t have lots of upside. Ingram? Maybe but that’s only at the end of the season if Peterson gets injured.
Team 5
1.05 – LeSean McCoy (Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr.)
2.08 – Brandin Cooks (Dez Bryant)
3.05 – Marshawn Lynch
4.08 – Golden Tate
5.05 – Devante Adams
Out of the first five teams, this is the team to beat right now. One thing that this team did that’s worth noting is that they skipped over three pretty good wide receivers (Jones, OBJ, & Green). This team was set on running back early and drafted McCoy. In this case, it worked out because of how low the receivers dropped, and the team was able to draft a good WR in the second round. Not a bad strategy when you consider how deep WR is.
Team 6
1.06 – Julio Jones
2.07 – Michael Thomas
3.06 – Isaiah Crowell
4.07 – Alshon Jeffery
5.06 – Greg Olsen
Solid start. Would be interesting to see where this team goes for their second running back slot.
Team 7 – My team
1.07 – Odell Beckham Jr.
2.06 – Todd Gurley
3.07 – Christian McCaffrey
4.06 – Aaron Rodgers
5.07 – Emmanuel Sanders
First off, I was thrilled that OBJ fell this far in the draft. This was a no brainer for me, and I still can’t fathom how this happened. The one thing I did here that I RARELY do is I drafted a QB. But to me drafting Rodgers in the fourth round was too good of a value to pass up. The decision was between Rodgers and Tate, and I felt that Rodgers production was far and away better than the other QBs than Tate was with the remaining WR. Hence the Sanders pick that followed.
Team 8
1.08 – Devonta Freeman (Melvin Gordon)
2.05 – Amari Cooper
3.08 – Dalvin Cook
4.05 – Martavis Bryant
5.08 – Julian Edelman
I felt Bryant was a reach in the early fourth round, only because you don’t know what role he’ll play with this offense that already has so many mouths to feed.
Team 9
1.09 – A.J. Green
2.04 – Lamar Miller (Dez Bryant or Todd Gurley)
3.09 – Carlos Hyde
4.04 – Kelvin Benjamin (Alshon Jeffery or Aaron Rodgers)
5.09 – Allen Robinson
This team has a solid balance of players who are going to see a lot of volume. I have Gurley and Bryant ranked over Miller, but I can understand why he decided to go with Miller over those two.
Team 10
1.10 – Melvin Gordon
2.03 – T. Y. Hilton
3.10 – Michael Crabtree
4.03 – Doug Martin (Alshon Jeffery)
5.10 – Kareem Hunt
My biggest issue here is drafting Hilton this early. With Luck’s timetable up in the air, you don’t know what type of production you’re going to get from Hilton Scott Tolzien behind center. Also, Doug Martin is suspended for the first four games.
Team 11
1.11 – Jordy Nelson
2.02 – DeMarco Murray
3.11 – Tom Brady
4.02 – Travis Kelce
5.11 – Jamison Crowder
This team jumped the gun on Tom Brady and Travis Kelce. Certainly two of the top players in their position but this puts the team under pressure to have a strong back end of the draft at essential positions.
Team 12
1.12 – Jordan Howard
2.01 – Jay Ajayi
3.12 – Ty Montgomery
4.01 – Keenan Allen
5.12 – Tyreek Hill
The triple running backs method. It didn’t seem to hurt this team as they were able to get some wideouts with high upside. Ironically I think the wideouts are safer than the running backs, though.