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MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 3

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 3

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

Poor weather has made the start of the season a bit unpredictable in terms of the schedule, but it’s only going to get better as we get further away from the beginning of April. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. He are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 3

Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians: vs. DET, vs. TOR

Anytime an ace like Kluber gets two starts in a week, you are likely off to a good start if you have him in your league. Kluber is still looking for his first win of the season, but he has a sparkling 2.40 ERA and 0.80 WHIP after his first two starts. Both of his starts this week are at home, where he had a 1.81 ERA and 12.3 K/9 last season. With one of his starts being against the rebuilding Tigers. Kluber is on the cusp of providing excellent production for fantasy owners.

Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels: at TEX, at KC

Richards has had trouble staying healthy, throwing a total of 61.1 innings in the last two seasons. He was great when he was able to take the mound, posting a FIP of 3.32 or lower in both seasons. He’s not off to the best of starts this year with a 5.06 ERA and 6.50 FIP through two starts. However, he has allowed just an 18.5% hard-hit rate. He showed his strikeout upside in his last start Tuesday against the Indians, recording nine of them in 5.2 innings. The Royals are last in the majors with only 16 runs scored so far this season, so Richards could be in line for a valuable week.

Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners: at KC, vs. OAK

Gonzales did not pitch at all in 2016 and was limited to 40 innings in 2017 due to Tommy John surgery. Once thought of to be the future of the Cardinals starting rotation, he was traded to the Mariners last season. The Mariners minor league system is lacking talent, making the 26-year-old Gonzales and important part of their future. He allowed three earned runs over six innings in his first start of the season against the Giants, but only recorded two strikeouts. His second start of Week 3 is no cake walk against an Athletics lineup that has plenty of power, but his first start against the anemic Royals offense at least brings him into the conversation as someone to start this week. He is still available in 88% of Yahoo! leagues as well.

Ben Lively, Philadelphia Phillies: vs. CIN, at TB

Lively doesn’t jump off the page as someone you’d want to start. He did not have a great season last year, posting a 4.97 FIP and just 5.3 K/9 in 88.2 innings. He does have good control though, posting a 2.4 BB/9 last year and a 2.6 BB/9 during his time in the minors. Home runs weren’t a problem for him in the minors either, recording a 0.6 HR/9 in 603.1 career innings. Week 3 brings two struggling lineups in the Reds and Rays, who are both in the bottom-four in baseball for runs scored in the earlier going. If you are streaming starters, Lively is still available in 95% of Yahoo! leagues.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 3

Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves: at WAS, at Cubs

Teheran is off to a disastrous start, allowing nine earned runs in eight innings over his first two starts. After allowing a career-high 31 home runs last year, he already gave up four in those first two outings. He was a much better pitcher on the road last year, but he’ll face two tough lineups in the Nationals and Cubs. He just faced the Nationals on Tuesday, giving up five earned runs in only 2.1 innings. Keep him out of your lineup for Week 3.

Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres: at COL, vs. SF

The “ace” of the Padres would be a back of the rotation starter on most teams. Not only did he have a 4.79 ERA last year, but he struggled to keep runners off base, resulting in a 1.52 WHIP. He allowed a 35% hard-hit rate and only had a 6.9 K/9, so he really wasn’t fooling anyone. With a rough road game in Coors Field among his two starts for Week 3, don’t consider him as a streaming option for your team.

Francisco Liriano, Detroit Tigers: at CLE, vs. NYY

Liriano made his debut in the majors back in 2005, so it’s hard to believe that he’s only 34 years old. Although he’s not much more than a journeyman pitcher at this point in his career, he made the starting rotation out of spring training for the rebuilding Tigers. He only allowed one earned run in 6.2 innings in his first start of 2018, but it came against the Royals. This week brings much tougher opponents, especially a Yankees lineup that provides a lot of problems for left-handed pitchers. Don’t overreact to one good start, stay away from Liriano.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/6/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/6/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

This will be an usually quiet Friday in the majors with only nine games on the schedule, which particularly hurts in terms of options at starting pitcher in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/6/18

Lance McCullers Jr. vs. San Diego Padres
Stadium – Minute Maid Park
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $12,300

McCullers’ overall numbers don’t look great on the surface, finishing with a 4.25 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 2017. However, his FIP was 3.10 and he was a bit unlucky with opposing batters posting a .333 BABIP. He had a 10 K/9 and a 0.6 HR/9, making him a candidate for significant improvement in 2018. McCullers had a brief scare when he was hit by a comebacker in his first start of the season against the Rangers, but stayed in the game, finishing with 10 strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings. The Padres lineup isn’t great, to begin with, but it’s even thinner right now with Wil Myers (elbow) on the DL. McCullers could be in line for another strong performance Friday as a result.

Luis Castillo vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – PNC Park
FanDuel = $7,100
DraftKings = $8,700

Castillo had a great start to his career during his brief time in the majors last year, posting a 3.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 in 89 1/3 innings. He showed excellent control for a young power pitcher, allowing just 1.8 BB/9. He induced a lot of grounders as well with a 58.8% ground-ball rate. Castillo had to face the Nationals in his first start of the season, who have one of the best lineups in the league. He allowed six earned runs in five innings, but he did still record six strikeouts. Friday brings an easier opponent in the Pirates, leaving Castillo as a tournament play option at this price.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/6/18

Freddie Freeman vs. German Marquez, Colorado Rockies
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $5,700

Freeman has started off about as well as anyone so far this season, batting .421 with two home runs and nine RBI. He has a crazy .621 OBP and has only struck out three times. He’ll face the righty Marquez on Friday, which should benefit him greatly since he had a ridiculous .422 wOBA against righties in 2017.

Kendrys Morales vs. Matt Moore, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,400
DraftKings = $2,900

Morales is only 2-for-14 to start the season and has yet to record an extra-base hit. Friday might be the day his fortunes change though against Moore and the Rangers. A switch-hitter, Morales is much better from the right side of the plate, posting a 165 wRC+ in 2017 compared to a 77 wRC+ from the left side. Moore struggled with a 1.53 WHIP last year and doesn’t have overpowering stuff, making Morales an option to consider at this cheap price.

Others to consider: Justin Smoak (first base) and Brian McCann (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/6/18

Scooter Gennett vs. Trevor Williams, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – PNC Park
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,500

Gennett had the best season of his career in 2017, hitting .295 with 27 home runs and 97 RBI. His previous career-highs were 14 home runs and 56 RBI, so the leap that he made was significant, to say the least. He’s not off to a hot start with his counting stats this year, but he is batting .429 in the early goings. Right-handed pitching provided little troubles for Gennett as he posting a .388 wOBA against them last year compared to just .296 against lefties. Based on those extreme splits, he might be worth taking a chance on in tournament play Friday.

Kike Hernandez vs. Derek Holland, San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $3,500

The injury to Justin Turner (wrist) has opened up some playing time for Hernandez, but he is only hitting .188 so far this season. He has dominated left-handed pitching though, posting a .390 wOBA against them in 2017. He’ll face the lefty Holland for the second time of the season on Friday after going 1-for-3 with a double and an RBI in their first matchup. Of note, Hernandez is only listed at second base on FanDuel as he is listed as an outfielder on DraftKings.

Others to consider: Joe Panik and Jed Lowrie

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/6/18

Josh Donaldson vs. Matt Moore, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $4,800

Donaldson has battled through a dead arm to start the season, but it has really only limited him in the field. He has two home runs and a double so far to go along with a .400 OBP. He owned lefties last year, finishing with a 171 wRC+. In limited plate appearances against Moore in his career, Donaldson is also 3-for-8 with a home run, one double and one walk. Expect him to give Moore troubles again Friday.

Luis Valbuena vs. Daniel Gossett, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $2,500
DraftKings = $3,000

Valbuena is off to a terrible start this season, hitting .167  with just two extra-base hits. The good news is that he is getting plenty of playing time with Ian Kinsler (groin) on the DL, which moved Zack Cozart from third to second base. Gossett struggled with a 6.11 ERA and 1.61 WHIP last year while also recording just 7.1 K/9. Valbuena is a much better hitter against righties, posting a .324 wOBA against them in 2017 compared to just .194 against lefties.

Others to consider: Nolan Arenado and Ryan Flaherty

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/6/18

Carlos Correa vs. Luis Perdomo, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Minute Maid Park
FanDuel = $4,400
DraftKings = $5,000

Correa suffered a minor toe injury and sat out Wednesday, but he should return Friday after receiving two days of rest. He was hot before the injury, batting .474 with two home runs and eight RBI. Although he hits lefties extremely well, righties don’t really give him problems either, finishing with a .380 wOBA against them in 2017. The right-hander Perdomo had a WHIP of at least 1.51 in both of the last two seasons and his K/9 did not exceed 6.5 in either year, which doesn’t exactly make him an imposing force for Correa to face.

Manny Machado vs. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees
Stadium – Yankee Stadium
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,200

Machado has yet to drive in a run and is hitting only .222 this season, so he doesn’t exactly come into Friday swinging the bat well. He’s had good numbers against Sabathia in his career though, batting .316 with three home runs and six doubles in 57 career at-bats. Sabathia is still a serviceable starting pitcher, but he’s not nearly as overpowering as he was earlier in his career. This might be just the matchup that Machado needs to get going.

Others to consider: Addison Russell Andrelton Simmons

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/6/18

Charlie Blackmon vs. Brandon McCarthy, Atlanta Braves
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $5,300
DraftKings = $5,800

Blackmon has yet to play a single game in the friendly confines of Coors Field, yet he is still batting .345 with four home runs. He finally returns home Friday, a place where he batted .391 and hit 24 of his 37 home runs last season. He also destroyed righties last year with a 145 wRC+, so don’t hesitate to pay up to get him into your lineup against McCarthy on Friday.

Josh Reddick vs. Luis Perdomo, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Minute Maid Park
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,000

Reddick was hitless in his first two games of 2018 but has gone 6-for-10 with two home runs in three games since. The Astros lineup is loaded with excellent right-handed hitters and Reddick provides an important compliment from the left-hand side, posting a wOBA of at least .356 against righties in each of the last four seasons. He has an excellent chance to extend his recent hot streak Friday.

Nomar Mazara vs. Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = $3,400

Mazara is swinging a hot bat right now, recording at least two hits in four of his last six games. He batted a disappointing .253 in 2017, but a lot of that was because he hit only .228 against lefties. Most of his power came against right-handers as well, hitting 19 of his 20 home runs against them. At this cheap price, he’s worth taking a chance on in tournament play against a righty in Estrada who doesn’t have overpowering stuff.

Others to consider: Mike Trout and Preston Tucker

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/30/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/30/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

The thrill of Opening Day has come and gone, but there is still plenty of excitement for Friday’s slate of MLB games in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/30/18

Max Scherzer vs. Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $11,100
DraftKings = $12,700

The first game of this series was scheduled for Thursday but was pushed back a day due to rain. This leaves a unique opportunity to use one of the elite pitchers in all of baseball on the second day of the season. Scherzer was terrific on his way to winning the Cy Young Award in 2017, finishing with a 2.51 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 12 K/9. He’s one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in all of baseball, recording a K/9 of at least 10.1 in six straight seasons. The Reds have one of the best hitters in baseball in Joey Votto, but their overall lineup is not overly impressive. Look for Scherzer to start off the season on the right foot with another excellent outing Friday.

Blake Snell vs. Red Sox
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $6,800

Snell has had control problems in his brief major league career, but he showed signs of improvement over the second half of the season, walking just 25 batters in 77.1 innings. His numbers improved, as a result, recording a 3.49 ERA and 1.13 WHIP during that stretch. Snell has also been a much better pitcher at home, posting a 3.20 ERA and 9.7 K/9 at Tropicana Field in his career. The Red Sox lineup is no cake walk, but Snell has strikeout upside and might be worth taking a chance on at this cheap price in tournament play.

OFFENSIVE STACKS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/30/18

Chicago Cubs vs. Caleb Smith (Miami Marlins)
Stadium – Marlins Park

The sad state of affairs for the Marlins starting rotation leads Smith to start their second game of the season. He’s pitched only 18.2 innings in the majors during his career, posting a 7.71 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. At 26 years old, Smith is not a hot rising prospect either. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher, recording an 8.5 K/9 during his minor league career. The Cubs already mashed the Marlins for eight runs on Opening Day, so don’t be surprised if they have another offensive explosion Friday.

Players to consider stacking: Kris Bryant, Wilson Contreras, Addison Russell

Houston Astros vs. Doug Fister (Texas Rangers)
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington

Fister has had a fine career, but he’s not much more than a journeyman starter at this point. He appeared in 18 games for the Red Sox last year, finishing with a 4.88 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He had an 8.3 K/9, but don’t expect that to hold up this year as his career K/9 is only 6.2. The Astros have one of the most potent lineups in the league, which could spell disaster for Fister on Friday. Make sure to take advantage for your entry.

Players to consider stacking: Carlos Correa, George Springer, Brian McCann

SPLIT KINGS

This season we’ll dive even deeper into the matchups to provide you with some hitters that have favorable splits each day. All areas that will be considered are splits against certain teams, starting pitchers, home and road games, and success against either right-handed or left-handed pitchers. Outside of the favorable offensive stacks already discussed, these hitters could also help you create a winning lineup.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/30/18

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
FanDuel = $4,400
DraftKings = $4,500

Freeman wasted no time getting off to a hot start this season, going 1-for-2 with a home run, two RBI, three runs and three walks Thursday. Friday brings a matchup against right-handed starter Nick Pivetta, who had a 6.02 ERA and 1.51 WHIP last season. Freeman also mashes right-handed pitching, batting .303 with a .531 slugging percentage against them in his career.

Khris Davis, OF, Oakland Athletics
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $4,100

Davis also started off the 2018 season in style, going 2-for-5 with a home run and four RBI Thursday. He’s an elite power bat, hitting at least 42 homers in back-to-back seasons. He’s had success against Friday’s starter Tyler Skaggs, posting four hits, one home run, three RBI and one walk in eight career plate appearances against him. Skaggs also gave up 13 home runs in just 85 innings last year, which could be troublesome against Davis.

Zack Cozart, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $4,000

Cozart made a good first impression with his new team Thursday, going 3-for-6 with a home run and a double. He is coming off the best season of his career in 2017 when he hit .297, but that was partly inflated by his abnormally high .312 BABIP. He crushed left-handed pitching last season, batting .337 with a .633 slugging percentage. He gets to face Athletics’ lefty Sean Manaea on Friday.

Corey Dickerson, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $4,000

Dickerson had an excellent season in 2017, batting .282 with 27 home runs and 62 RBI as he made his first All-Star team. The Rays moved on from several key pieces of their offense in the offseason, ultimately landing Dickerson with the Pirates. He gets to face Jordan Zimmermann on Friday, who posted an unsightly 6.08 ERA and 1.55 WHIP last season. He’s not a strikeout pitcher either with a career 5.8 K/9. Dickerson hits right-handed pitchers particularly well, with 24 of his 27 home runs coming against them last year.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

The long wait is finally over. Opening Day has arrived! There’s nothing quite like the excitement of the first day of the baseball season. Let’s kick this season off in style with a successful daily fantasy baseball lineup. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Seasonal Only

Open day special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout.

 

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

Chris Sale vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $11,200
DraftKings = $12,200

Sale (hip) started off his Red Sox career in style, posting a 17-8 record and finishing second in the voting for the Cy Young Award last year. He dominated the league, recording a 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a career-high 12.9 K/9. His ERA was no fluke either as his FIP was a sparkling 2.45. Sale was hit by a comebacker in his final start this spring, but he should be fine for Opening Day. He gets a great matchup against a rebuilding Rays squad that lost Evan Longoria, Steven Souza Jr. and Corey Dickerson over the winter. Their lineup is lacking power as a result, setting up Sale to have a strong start to the 2018 campaign.

Garrett Richards vs. Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $6,800

Richards showed promise in his first two full seasons as a starting pitcher in 2015 and 2016, going a combined 28-16 in 376 innings. His ERA was 3.65 or lower in both seasons and he had 340 total strikeouts. However, injuries have taken a toll on him the last two seasons, resulting in him throwing only 62.1 innings combined. He pitched well when he was on the mound, allowing only 16 total earned runs during that stretch. He’s healthy now and had a strong spring, recording a 2.84 ERA and 9.9 K/9. Thursday’s opponent in the Athletics has a lot of power, but they also have several players who strike out a lot. If you don’t want to pay up for Sale, Richards could provide value at a much more budget-friendly price.

OFFENSIVE STACKS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ty Blach (San Francisco Giants)
Stadium – Dodger Stadium

The Giants were hit hard by injuries to their starting rotation before the season even started, losing both Madison Bumgarner (hand) and Jeff Samardzija (pectoral). Because the injury to Bumgarner happened so late in spring training, the Giants did not have enough time to adjust their rotation. That left Blach lined up to start the opener. He did not have a strong season in 2017, finishing 8-12 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He struggled to get right-handed batters out as they hit .295 against him last year compared to lefties batting only .250. Most teams are throwing out their best starter in the first game of the season, which could lead to some low-scoring games. Take advantage of Blach taking the mound by stacking Dodgers hitters.

Players to consider stacking: Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor, Matt Kemp

Chicago Cubs vs. Jose Urena (Miami Marlins)
Stadium – Marlins Park

The Marlins traded away the vast majority of their good players and are lined up to be one of the worst teams in baseball this season, Their starting rotation is particularly bad, likely leaving them as a good team to stack against most nights. At first glance, Urena’s numbers from 2017 don’t look bad. He finished 14-7 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. However, his ERA could have been much worse as his FIP was 5.20. He also only struck out six batters per nine innings. Not having overpowering stuff immediately puts him behind the eight ball pitching against the potent Cubs lineup. On a day full of star pitchers, Urena is another defacto ace you can take advantage of.

Players to consider stacking: Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ

SPLIT KINGS

This season we’ll dive even deeper into the matchups to provide you with some hitters that have favorable splits each day. All areas that will be considered are splits against certain teams, starting pitchers, home and road games, and success against either right-handed or left-handed pitchers. Outside of the favorable offensive stacks already discussed, these hitters could also help you create a winning lineup.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
FanDuel = $4,800
DraftKings = $5,400

It’s not hard to find great numbers for Trout. Although he was limited to only 114 games last year due to injury, he still hit .306 with 33 home runs, 72 RBI, 92 runs scored and 22 steals. Trout has owned Athletics starting pitcher Kendall Graveman, hitting .370 with two home runs and four RBI against him in 30 career plate appearances.

Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox
FanDuel = $4,200
DraftKings = $5,000

This might not seem like an obvious advantage for Betts against a tough starting pitcher in Chris Archer on Thursday. Archer is a big-time strikeout pitcher, posting a K/9 of at least 10.4 in three straight seasons. However, Betts has excelled against him during his career, batting .387 with four home runs, 10 RBI and eight walks in 39 career plate appearances.

Evan Gattis, C, Houston Astros
FanDuel = $2,500
DraftKings = $3,300

Gattis is eligible at catcher, but he figures to see most of his time at designated hitter for the Astros this season. Injuries have limited him to only 212 games in the last two seasons combined, but he still managed to hit 44 home runs during that stretch. He gets to face Cole Hamels on Thursday, who he has hit .360 with three home runs against in 25 career plate appearances.

Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
FanDuel = $2,500
DraftKings = $3,700

Pujols is a shell of his former self, hitting just .241 last season. He still showed he can hit for power though, slugging 23 home runs and recording 101 RBI. He has hit even better against Graveman than Trout has during his career, batting a loft .433 with three home runs and 10 RBI in 33 plate appearances.

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

The Outfield position has a lot of high-end talent this year with five players at the position arguably ranked inside the top ten for fantasy baseball. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some outfielders who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Five

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

Entering 2017, Trout had played in at least 157 games in four straight seasons. He averaged 33 home runs, 100 RBI, 113 runs scored and 23 steals per season during that stretch. Not only that, but he batted at least .299 three times. He was limited to just 114 games last year due to injury, but he still batted .306 with 33 home runs, 72 RBI, 92 runs scored and 22 steals. Those are crazy counting stats in such a limited time frame. He’s only getting better with his pitch selection, lowering his strikeout percentage while also increasing his walk percentage in four straight seasons. He’s not just the best outfielder in fantasy baseball either as I rank him number one overall.

Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies

Blackmon had a monster season in 2017, batting .331 with 37 home runs, 104 RBI, 137 runs scored, 14 steals and a .399 OBP. He led the majors in hits, runs scored, triples and total bases and was second in batting average only to Jose Altuve. To put his season into perspective, only four players had a higher slugging percentage last year than Blackmon. They were J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge. He did have extreme home and road splits, batting .391 with 24 home runs at Coors Field compared to .276 with 13 homers on the road. It’s going to be tough for him to so many home runs again this year, but he did have 29 homers and 82 RBI in 2016. His ability to hit for power, a high average and steal bases makes him one of the most valuable options in fantasy baseball.

Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

Betts established himself as an elite fantasy asset in 2016, hitting .318 with 31 home runs, 113 RBI, 122 runs scored and 26 steals. His counting stats were again stellar in 2017, but his batting average dropped to just .264. He had never batted below .291 in a season in the majors, leaving his owners who paid a lofty price for him on draft day somewhat disappointed with his overall production. However, his strikeout percentage, groundball to fly ball ratio and line drive percentage were all almost right on par with his career averages. The big difference is he had only a .268 BABIP last year after never finishing with one below .310 in his career. With a higher BABIP likely on tap for 2018, expect Betts to rebound with his batting average. The addition of Martinez also adds a power dimension that the Red Sox lineup was sorely lacking last year, which should help Betts as well. Get ready for a big season.

Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

Of all the outfielders not named Mike Trout, Harper might have the highest upside. He showed his immense potential in 2015, batting .330 with 42 home runs, 99 RBI and 118 runs scored on his way to winning the National League MVP. The reason why Harper is fourth on this list though is due to injuries and inconsistencies throughout his career. He has only played at least 147 games twice in his career, one of which was that stellar 2015 campaign. He has also batted above .300 only twice in six seasons. It can be frustrating to own him, but you shouldn’t be disappointed if he ends up being your first round pick. If everything falls right, he could end up finishing in the top three overall in fantasy.

Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees

As a testament to how deep the outfield position is, a guy who had 59 home runs and 132 RBI last season if fifth on this list. Stanton was unlike many of the games elite home run hitters too, managing to hit .281 and record a career-low 23.6% strikeout percentage. Injuries have been a concern for Stanton as well, limiting him to 123 games or less in four of the last six years. He mashes when he’s on the field though. The 2015 season might be the perfect example as he hit 27 home runs in just 74 games. Not only does he move to homer-friendly Yankee Stadium, but he’ll also be part of one of the most potent lineups in the league. If he can stay healthy, the sky is the limit. That’s a big if though, which is why he’s fifth on this list.

Overvalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds

There is no question that Hamilton is one of the premier base stealers in the league, recording at least 56 steals in four straight seasons. The problem is, that’s about all he does well. For his career, he is only batting .248 with a paltry .298 OBP. He’s never scored more than 85 runs in a season and has 17 career home runs. While steals are hard to find, it’s important to remember that it’s only one category. He’ll drag you down just about everywhere else, making it very hard to justify his current ADP in the NFBC of 61.85.

Andrew McCutchen, San Francisco Giants

McCutchen will be playing for someone other than the Pirates for the first time in his career and will be a key part of what the Giants hope is a vastly improved lineup. McCutchen was once an elite fantasy option, hitting at least 20 home runs and stealing at least 20 bases each season from 2011 through 2013. His power numbers are still there, hitting at least 23 homers in four straight years. He’s not the threat that he once was on the basepaths though, stealing a total of 28 bases in the last three seasons. The problem is if he’s not going to steal bases and isn’t a .300 hitter anymore, the ability to hit 25 home runs isn’t nearly as valuable as it used to be. His current ADP is 87.06, ahead of players who could provide similar production like Ryan Braun (113.24) and Adam Jones (146.55). Make sure you don’t overpay for McCutchen.

Ender Inciarte, Atlanta Braves

Inciarte played in a career-high 157 games last year, making his first All-Star team. He’s always hit for a high average, batting .295 for his career.  With at least 21 steals in two of the last three seasons, he can certainly provide value on the basepaths. However, he doesn’t hit for a lot of power, recording just 11 home runs last season. He had never hit more than six home runs in a year entering 2017. He also doesn’t drive in many runs, finishing with just 57 RBI last year. His current ADP of 120.21 seems awfully high for a player of his skillset. Adam Eaton is a reasonable comp in my eyes and his ADP is only 152.76. Buyer beware of Inciarte at his current price.

 

Undervalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

The Yankees lineup is loaded. They have premier hitters in Stanton, Judge, and Gary Sanchez and have excellent depth when you add in the likes of Greg Bird and Didi Gregorius. Gardner is expected to be the Yankees leadoff hitter again this season, which should leave him with a ton of opportunities to score runs. He has scored at least 90 runs three times in his career, but has the potential to score at least 100 runs for the first time this year. He also brings a nice combination of speed and power, hitting at least 16 home runs and stealing at least 20 bases in three of the last four years. Although it’s not flashy, he has a valuable .264 career batting average as well. His current ADP is 180.67, leaving him with plenty of value on draft day.

Stephen Piscotty, Oakland Athletics

Piscotty was a trendy pick to be a breakout player last year after batting .273 with 22 home runs, 85 RBI and 86 runs scored in 2016. He was a major disappointment though, batting just .235 with nine home runs and 39 RBI in 107 games. He gets a fresh start as a member of the Athletics and shouldn’t be someone you sleep on this season. Batting average was never an area of concern for him in the minors, hitting .287 over 405 games. He’s still just 27 years old and will be part of an Athletics lineup that has a lot of power. His current ADP is 292.2, which is a steal considering his upside.

Mallex Smith, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are rebuilding, trading away some key players this offseason. They especially have holes to fill in their outfield after trading both Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza Jr. Their outfield was projected to be Smith, Kevin Kiermaier and Denard Span after those moves, but then they signed Carlos Gomez. Gomez is the only right-handed hitter in the bunch, so he could end up with plenty of at-bats. Smith could work his way into regular playing time still, which would give him a chance to showcase his speed. He played just 81 games last year, but still stole 16 bases. He batted .270 as well, which helps considering he provides no power. His value is mostly limited to stolen bases, but he could steal somewhere between 30 and 40 bases under the right circumstances. With a current ADP of 351.12, Smith could be a very cheap source of steals. I’d much rather get him towards the end of a draft than spend a high pick on Hamilton.

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

Second base provides a unique opportunity because you can go in any number of directions with the position. There are big power hitters, speedsters, and players that hit for high average littered throughout the position. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some second basemen who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

This is an easy one. Not only is Altuve the best second baseman, but I’d rank him second overall behind Angels outfielder Mike Trout. Altuve won the AL-MVP last year, batting .346 with 24 home runs, 81 RBI, 112 runs scored and 32 stolen bases. He had a career-high OPS+ of 164 and played in at least 147 games for the sixth straight season. His speed and ability to hit for a high average gave him significant value early in his career, but he’s moved into elite fantasy status by clubbing at least 24 home runs in back-t0-back seasons. He’s heading into the prime of his career at just 27 years old, so don’t expect him to slow down this season.

Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians

Ramirez made his mark on fantasy baseball in 2016, hitting .312 with 11 home runs, 76 RBI, and 22 steals. He also had 46 doubles, showing signs that a big power season might soon be on the horizon. That season came last year, finishing with 29 home runs. But wait, he also hit a league-leading 56 doubles. The result was a spectacular .583 slugging percentage, putting him inside the top-10 in the league. His power did not come at the expense of his batting average either as he still hit .318. His hard hit percentage has increased each season, topping out at 34% last year. He doesn’t have as much upside as Altuve, but his ability to contribute across the board makes him the clear second best option at the keystone position.

Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins

Dozier is a masher at second base, slugging at least 28 home runs in three straight seasons. It was going to be tough for him to match the 42 home runs that he hit in 2016, but he still hit 34 homers last year. He’s more than just a slugger though, scoring at least 100 runs and stealing at least 12 bases in four straight seasons. He hindered fantasy owners with his batting average early in his career but has hit at least .268 in back-to-back seasons. He had a hard hit percentage of at least 34.1% in both of those seasons, which was a big reason why his average improved. If you miss out on Altuve or Ramirez, draft Dozier with confidence.

Overvalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

Dee Gordon, Seattle Mariners

Steals are not easy to come by, but Gordon is one of the elite base stealers in all of baseball. He has led the league in steals three of the last four seasons, finishing with at least 58 steals all three times. The one year he didn’t lead the league was when he played just 79 games in 2016 due to a suspension. Amazingly, he still finished with 30 steals that year. Gordon is not just about steals though as he has a .293 career batting average and scored 114 runs last year. He’s going to play center field for the Mariners this year, but will still carry over second base eligibility. The Mariners have a potent lineup, which should leave Gordon with plenty of opportunities to score runs. The problem is, he has never hit more than four home runs or recorded more than 46 RBI in a single season. If your league counts OBP, his career mark of .329 is not impressive either. His current ADP in the NFBC is too high at 28.47, which is actually ahead of Dozier (37.87). Let someone else take him at that price.

Chris Taylor, Los Angeles Dodgers

Taylor was one of the biggest surprises in fantasy baseball last year. He played in only 120 total games the previous three seasons but played 140 games in 2017. He made the most of his opportunity, hitting .288 with 21 home runs, 72 RBI, 85 runs scored and 17 steals. One area of concern is his drastic splits though, batting .237 with a .306 BABIP at home compared to .336 with a .412 BABIP on the road. His overall numbers are valuable, but his current ADP of 90.83 is ninth-highest among second basemen. Marwin Gonzalez’s current ADP is 114.25 and he could provide very similar numbers outside of stolen bases, although he did steal eight bases last year. It might be wise to pass on Taylor if forced to select him so early.

Undervalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have one of the most flexible rosters in the league, but Happ should still get plenty of at-bats. He played in just 115 games last year, but still managed hit 24 home runs to go along with 68 RBI, 62 runs scored and eight steals. He batted only .253 though and struck out 31.2% of the time. The high strikeouts may have just been him getting adjusted to major league pitching as he never struck out more than 23.6% of the time during any of his stops in the minors. His current ADP is 137.46, which is a bargain considering his potential. Don’t be surprised if he finishes with a more productive season than Taylor.

Ian Kinsler, Los Angeles Angels

Today’s craze in baseball is young talent. There seems to more elite young players across the league now than in recent years, which can often make you forget about productive veterans in terms of fantasy. A lot of people might be down on Kinsler after a rough 2017 campaign that saw him hit a career-low .236. His numbers indicate he could rebound this season as last year he had only a .244 BABIP, well below his career mark of .286. Another possible indicator for improvement this year is that he also had a 37% hard hit percentage last year, which was the highest of his career. Yes, he’s getting older, but the numbers indicate he had few bounces go his way last year.  Not only should his average improve this year, but he is also a threat to hit 20 home runs and steal 15 bases. His current ADP is only 189.25, making him someone to target late in your draft.

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Advanced stats are important in any sport, but they have especially changed the way we look at baseball. One important advanced stat to consider when drafting your fantasy baseball squad is batting average on balls in play, also known a BABIP.

As defined by BaseballReference.com, BABIP, “measures what happens when the player puts the ball in play on the field.” The formula to calculate BABIP is (H-HR)/ (AB – SO – HR + SF).

In 2017, the league average batting average was .255. Historically, the league average BABIP is usually right around .300. Now, that doesn’t mean just because a hitter has a BABIP above or below .300 that they are in line for a correction in 2018. You want to compare their BABIP more with their career marks and also consider their skill sets. For example, a fast runner who hits a lot of ground balls could have a high BABIP simply because they are able to leg out base hits that other runners with normal speed would not be able to.

It is also important to consider the type of contact that a player is making, whether they hit a lot of fly balls or line drives. A player who hits more hard line drives can have a high BABIP because the fielders could have a more difficult time reaching the ball to record an out. A player who hits a lot of weak fly balls is going to have a lower BABIP because they aren’t leaving themselves with a great opportunity to reach base.

All of that being said, let’s take a look at a few players who had an abnormally high or low BABIP last season and discuss how to project their batting averages for this season.

 

Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Garcia not only hit a career-high .330 last season, but it left him with the third-highest batting averaging in the league behind Jose Altuve and Charlie Blackmon. That’s some pretty impressive company. However, Garcia is a career .277 hitter, which is an immediate red flag.

A closer look at Garcia’s numbers shows he had a .392 BABIP last year, which was the highest in baseball. That screams candidate for regression, especially when you consider his career BABIP is just .340. Garcia even struck out less last year with a 19.8% strikeout percentage, which is almost three percent lower than his career average. His line drive percentage was 24%, which was spot on with his career mark.

He is still a talented young player who could have a valuable fantasy season, but make sure you aren’t drafting him with the expectation that he will hit for that high of an average again this year.

Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Zimmerman has played in over 1,500 career games, which gives us an example sample size to work off of. After dealing with injuries the last few seasons, Zimmerman was able to largely stay healthy in 2017 and played in 144 games. He finished with a career-high 36 home runs and recorded at least 100 RBI for the third time in his career. He had a sparkling .303 batting average, which was especially high considering he hasn’t batted above .280 since 2012.

However, a lot of his success can be attributed to his performance in the first half of the season when he batted .345. It’s no coincidence that he had an extremely high BABIP of .364 during that same time frame. His career BABIP is .311, so it made much more sense that he had a BABIP of .306 during the second half of the season. While the decline in BABIP, Zimmerman’s batting average was just .269 in the second half.

Health is always a major concern if you are drafting Zimmerman, but remember that his excessively high BABIP in the first half led to an inflated batting average for the season overall.

Zack Cozart, Los Angeles Angels

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Cozart is the only player on this list to change teams this winter as he signed with the Angeles after playing his entire career with the Cincinnati Reds. Cozart had the best season of his career in 2017, hitting .297 with 24 home runs, 63 RBI and 80 runs scored. He was able to cash that in for a three-year, $38 million contract. With how slow the market has moved this winter, that was a significant deal.

Another alarm should go off with Cozart though as he is only a career .254 hitter. He did most of his damage in the first half, batting .316 with a .358 BABIP. To put that into perspective, his career BABIP is only .280. He experienced a significant regression in the second half, batting just .272 with a .252 BABIP.

Cozart did drastically improve his walk percentage to 12.2% last season, but his 26% line drive percentage was actually two percent lower than both of the previous two seasons. Buyer beware if you are drafting him based on his batting average last season.

Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Betts was one of the hottest names in fantasy baseball heading into last year after hitting .318 with 31 home runs, 113 RBI, 122 runs scored and 26 steals in 2016. Even though the Red Sox offense as a whole took a step backward in 2017, Betts still had great counting stats with 24 home runs, 102 RBI, 101 runs scored and 26 stolen bases.

Betts couldn’t completely deliver on his lofty fantasy expectations though because he batted only .264 for the season. His strikeout percentage, groundball to fly ball ratio and line drive percentage were all almost right on par with his career averages. The big difference is he had only a .268 BABIP last year after never finishing with one below .310 in his career. It was low throughout the season, showing very little improvement in the second half.

Betts has an extremely high upside in fantasy and could have just had one of those “unlucky” seasons in terms of his BABIP considering his career numbers. Expect improvement in the batting average department from him this year.

Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Machado is also one of the most coveted offense players in fantasy. Not only has he developed into a premier power hitter, but he had hit at least .278 in four straight seasons leading into 2017. Although he stole 20 bases in 2015, he has only stolen nine total bases in two seasons since.

Machado saw a significant decline in his batting average in 2017, finishing the season hitting just .259. Much of that can be attributed to a horrid first half where he batted just .230 in large part due to his .230 BABIP. He has a career .301 BABIP, so it’s no surprise that he improved to a .290 BABIP in the second half of the season. He batted .290 over that same stretch.

Machado will be dealing with a position change this year, moving from third base to his natural position at shortstop. However, one constant that should return this year with a normal BABIP is his high batting average.

Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Odor has become one of the premier power-hitting second basemen in baseball, slugging at least 30 home runs in back-to-back seasons. He does not do a great job getting on base though with only a 4.2% walk percentage. He has logged 1,212 at-bats in the last two seasons but has only walked 51 times. His swinging strikes percentage has increased in each season of his career, topping out at 20.8% in 2017.

While he doesn’t walk much, Odor had a batting average of at least .259 in each of his first three seasons. He struggled mightily in that department last year, batting just .204. Much of that can be attributed to his .224 BABIP, which was almost 60 points lower than any previous season of his career. His inability to get on base limits his fantasy value, but it’s highly unlikely that he will hit just over .200 again this season.