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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

The long wait is finally over. Opening Day has arrived! There’s nothing quite like the excitement of the first day of the baseball season. Let’s kick this season off in style with a successful daily fantasy baseball lineup. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

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STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

Chris Sale vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $11,200
DraftKings = $12,200

Sale (hip) started off his Red Sox career in style, posting a 17-8 record and finishing second in the voting for the Cy Young Award last year. He dominated the league, recording a 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a career-high 12.9 K/9. His ERA was no fluke either as his FIP was a sparkling 2.45. Sale was hit by a comebacker in his final start this spring, but he should be fine for Opening Day. He gets a great matchup against a rebuilding Rays squad that lost Evan Longoria, Steven Souza Jr. and Corey Dickerson over the winter. Their lineup is lacking power as a result, setting up Sale to have a strong start to the 2018 campaign.

Garrett Richards vs. Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $6,800

Richards showed promise in his first two full seasons as a starting pitcher in 2015 and 2016, going a combined 28-16 in 376 innings. His ERA was 3.65 or lower in both seasons and he had 340 total strikeouts. However, injuries have taken a toll on him the last two seasons, resulting in him throwing only 62.1 innings combined. He pitched well when he was on the mound, allowing only 16 total earned runs during that stretch. He’s healthy now and had a strong spring, recording a 2.84 ERA and 9.9 K/9. Thursday’s opponent in the Athletics has a lot of power, but they also have several players who strike out a lot. If you don’t want to pay up for Sale, Richards could provide value at a much more budget-friendly price.

OFFENSIVE STACKS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ty Blach (San Francisco Giants)
Stadium – Dodger Stadium

The Giants were hit hard by injuries to their starting rotation before the season even started, losing both Madison Bumgarner (hand) and Jeff Samardzija (pectoral). Because the injury to Bumgarner happened so late in spring training, the Giants did not have enough time to adjust their rotation. That left Blach lined up to start the opener. He did not have a strong season in 2017, finishing 8-12 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He struggled to get right-handed batters out as they hit .295 against him last year compared to lefties batting only .250. Most teams are throwing out their best starter in the first game of the season, which could lead to some low-scoring games. Take advantage of Blach taking the mound by stacking Dodgers hitters.

Players to consider stacking: Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor, Matt Kemp

Chicago Cubs vs. Jose Urena (Miami Marlins)
Stadium – Marlins Park

The Marlins traded away the vast majority of their good players and are lined up to be one of the worst teams in baseball this season, Their starting rotation is particularly bad, likely leaving them as a good team to stack against most nights. At first glance, Urena’s numbers from 2017 don’t look bad. He finished 14-7 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. However, his ERA could have been much worse as his FIP was 5.20. He also only struck out six batters per nine innings. Not having overpowering stuff immediately puts him behind the eight ball pitching against the potent Cubs lineup. On a day full of star pitchers, Urena is another defacto ace you can take advantage of.

Players to consider stacking: Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ

SPLIT KINGS

This season we’ll dive even deeper into the matchups to provide you with some hitters that have favorable splits each day. All areas that will be considered are splits against certain teams, starting pitchers, home and road games, and success against either right-handed or left-handed pitchers. Outside of the favorable offensive stacks already discussed, these hitters could also help you create a winning lineup.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
FanDuel = $4,800
DraftKings = $5,400

It’s not hard to find great numbers for Trout. Although he was limited to only 114 games last year due to injury, he still hit .306 with 33 home runs, 72 RBI, 92 runs scored and 22 steals. Trout has owned Athletics starting pitcher Kendall Graveman, hitting .370 with two home runs and four RBI against him in 30 career plate appearances.

Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox
FanDuel = $4,200
DraftKings = $5,000

This might not seem like an obvious advantage for Betts against a tough starting pitcher in Chris Archer on Thursday. Archer is a big-time strikeout pitcher, posting a K/9 of at least 10.4 in three straight seasons. However, Betts has excelled against him during his career, batting .387 with four home runs, 10 RBI and eight walks in 39 career plate appearances.

Evan Gattis, C, Houston Astros
FanDuel = $2,500
DraftKings = $3,300

Gattis is eligible at catcher, but he figures to see most of his time at designated hitter for the Astros this season. Injuries have limited him to only 212 games in the last two seasons combined, but he still managed to hit 44 home runs during that stretch. He gets to face Cole Hamels on Thursday, who he has hit .360 with three home runs against in 25 career plate appearances.

Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
FanDuel = $2,500
DraftKings = $3,700

Pujols is a shell of his former self, hitting just .241 last season. He still showed he can hit for power though, slugging 23 home runs and recording 101 RBI. He has hit even better against Graveman than Trout has during his career, batting a loft .433 with three home runs and 10 RBI in 33 plate appearances.

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

One of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball is closers. The traditional closer role is also being reexamined by some teams who may not wait until the ninth inning to bring in their best reliever based on the situation. That could leave you chasing saves more than ever. However, that doesn’t mean you can’t dominate the position in your league. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some closers who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers

Jansen has been a dominant force at the end of games, converting 168 of 182 save opportunities (92.3%) over the last four seasons. He had a WHIP of 0.86 or lower in five of the last six seasons and has seen his ERA decrease three straight seasons, finishing at a career low 1.32 in 2017. Strikeouts are his specialty with a career K/9 of 14.0. I could go on and on with juicy stats from Jansen, who also posted a career-low 0.9 BB/9 in 2017. He gets the benefit of playing for one of the best teams in baseball, which should leave him with plenty of save chances again this season. You’ll have to take him early in your draft if you want his services, but he is the clear top closer option.

Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox

After posting an uncharacteristic 3.40 ERA in his first season with the Red Sox in 2016, Kimbrel returned to form last year. Not only did he drop his ERA down to 1.43, but his 0.68 WHIP was also the second-lowest mark of his career. In seven career seasons that he has logged at least 50 innings, Kimbrel has finished with an ERA of 1.61 or lower and a WHIP of 0.91 or lower four times. Like Jansen, he too has been a strikeout machine with a career 14.8 K/9. He hasn’t saved at least 40 games in a season since he was a member of the Atlanta Braves in 2014, but he is still one of the elite closers in fantasy baseball.

Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees

Chapman did not have his best year in 2017 and even was removed from the closer’s role for a brief stretch. His overall numbers don’t look great by his standards, finishing with a 3.22 ERA and just 22 saves. However, he still had a respectable WHIP of 1.13 and a 12.3 K/9. The main reason for the spike in his ERA was that he allowed two earned runs each in three-straight appearances in August. Outside of that, he allowed two runs or more in only two other games all season. His low save total can also be attributed to the fact that he missed over a month with a shoulder injury. He righted the ship towards the end of the season and also gave up only one run in eight innings during the playoffs. I expect him to have a bounce-back campaign on a strong Yankees team, leaving him to round out the top three closers in fantasy.

Overvalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

Alex Colome, Tampa Bay Rays

Colome made his first All-Star team in 2016, finishing with a 1.91 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 and 37 saves. He managed to lead baseball with 47 saves in 2017 but took a significant step backward just about everywhere else. Not only did he finish with a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, but he suffered a huge dropoff in K/9 at only 7.8. His career K/9 is 8.0, so that was actually more of what we should be expecting from him, not his abnormally high strikeout rate from 2016. The Rays are in rebuilding mode for 2018 and have traded away several important players from their 2017 squad. Don’t be surprised if Colome is dealt at some point this season as well, possibly to a team that doesn’t have him close. There are a lot of risks involved with Colome, making it hard for me to justify his current ADP in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) of 125.69.

Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies

Neris posted a career-high 26 saves last season, which is significant considering how poorly the Phillies played. He finished with a 3.01 ERA and 10.4 K/9, but his 1.26 WHIP and 3.71 FIP are a bit concerning heading into 2018. The Phillies are an improved team this year, so Neris could have more save opportunities than he saw in 2017. The problem is his current ADP is 143.28, which is significantly higher than Brandon Morrow (179.20) and Kelvin Herrara (199.75), two players who can at least provide similar production in terms of ERA and saves. I’d rather take a chance on one of those two later on.

Undervalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals

Doolittle started out 2017 as a member of the Oakland Athletics and pitched 21.2 innings for them, posting a 3.38 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, and 13.1 K/9. He only had three saves with Oakland but was traded to the Nationals, who had major bullpen struggles in the first half of the season. Doolittle did a stellar job as their closer, converting 21 of his 22 save opportunities with the team. Although his K/9 dropped to 9.3 with Washingon, his ERA was just 2.40. He’s had some injury issues in his career, but he is going to get a lot of save chances on a good Nationals team if he can stay healthy. With a current ADP of 128.02, he is a bargain considering his upside.

Mark Melancon, San Francisco Giants

Melancon established himself as a premier reliever during his tenure with the Pittsburgh Pirates, posting an ERA of 1.90 or lower in three of his four seasons with the team. He combined to log 98 saves in 2015 and 2016, spending the second half of 2016 with the Nationals. The Giants brought him in last winter to anchor their bullpen, but his season was a disaster. He was limited to only 30 innings due to injury and didn’t pitch well when he was on the mound, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Luck was not on his side as opponents had a .374 BABIP against him last year, significantly higher than his career mark of .281. He had surgery to fix his elbow in September and now that he’s healthy, he will assume the ninth inning duties once again. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher with a career 8.2 K/9, but he could get more save opportunities on an improved Giants squad. His current ADP is 175.64, making him someone to target if you plan to wait on saves.

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

With the offensive outburst that was experienced throughout the league in 2017, quality starting pitchers seem harder to come by this year in fantasy baseball. However, that doesn’t mean you still can’t assemble a quality staff for your squad. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some starting pitchers who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Five

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Kershaw is the elite of the elite when it comes to starting pitchers. Outside of his rookie season in 2008, Kershaw has never finished the season with an ERA above 2.91. His career ERA of 2.36 is off the charts and is in no ways a fluke considering his career FIP is 2.60. He does an excellent job keeping men off base, posting a WHIP of 0.95 or lower in each of the last five seasons. That’s a big reason why he posted a 2.31 ERA last year despite posting a career-high 1.2 HR/9. To top off his stellar numbers, he has a K/9 of at least 10.4 in four straight seasons. Injuries have limited him to 175 innings or fewer in back-to-back seasons, but his numbers are so outstanding when he is on the mound that he is the clear choice for the top starting pitcher in fantasy baseball.

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

Scherzer was a very good starting pitcher as a member of the Detroit Tigers, but he’s taken his game to the next level since joining the Nationals. In three seasons in Washington, Scherzer has never had an ERA above 2.96 or a WHIP above 0.97. His batting average against has decreased each year with the Nationals with opponents hitting a mere .178 against him in 2017. He’s also a strikeout machine, posting a K/9 of at least 10.1 in each of the last six seasons, topping out at a career-high 12.0 last year. Throw in the fact that he has logged at least 214.1 innings in five straight seasons and not only is he the second-best starting pitcher in fantasy baseball, but he is well worth a first-round pick.

Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

Sale had arguably the best season of his career in 2017, finishing 17-8 with a 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and an insane 308 strikeouts in 214.1 innings. He is one of the most dominating strikeout pitchers in the game, posting a K/9 of at least 10.8 in three of the last four seasons. If not for a few rough starts in August and September and a stellar finish by Corey Kluber, Sale could have won his first Cy Young Award last year. Like Scherzer, Sale has been very reliable, throwing at least 208.2 innings in four of the last five seasons. The only reason he comes in third on this list behind Scherzer is that he had an ERA of 3.05 or higher in four of five seasons entering 2017. It’s a matter of splitting hairs though, so it could also cost you a first-round pick to get Sale on your team this year depending on the size of your league.

Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians

Kluber closed out 2017 strong, going 11-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in the second half of the season. Overall, he set or tied career highs last year in wins (18), ERA (2.25), WHIP (0.87) and K/9 (11.7) on his way to winning the American League Cy Young Award. His FIP was also 2.50, marking the third time in the last four seasons that he recorded a FIP of 2.97 or lower. With a career K/9 of 9.9, Kluber was able to make big strides in that category last year by posting a swinging strike percentage of 24.2%, significantly higher than his career mark of 20.3%. He may be in for a slight regression in the strikeout department this year, but he is still going to finish with great numbers overall. If you want him on your team, you’ll likely have to spend at least a second-round pick to get him.

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

Strasburg provided fantasy owners with a ton of value last year despite only logging 175.1 innings, finishing 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 204 strikeouts. His FIP was just 2.72, marking the fourth straight season he had a FIP of 2.94 or lower. Like the other starters on this list, he is a dominant strikeout pitcher, recording a K/9 of at least 10.1 in each of the last four seasons. There is no doubt that when Strasburg is healthy, he is one of the top pitchers in the league. However, health has been a concern with Strasburg logging at least 200 innings only once in his career. He had actually thrown less than 150 innings in back-to-back seasons entering 2017. That’s the reason he comes in fifth on this list, but he is still worthy of being a fantasy staff ace.

Overvalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros

Cole’s best season was in 2015 as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates when he finished 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 208 innings. However, his numbers have declined in the two years since, finishing last year 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA and 196 strikeouts in 203 innings. His main problem in 2017 was a massive increase in home runs allowed. He only allowed 29 home runs from 2014 through 2016 but gave up 31 in 2017 alone. When you add in the fact that he also issued a career-high 55 walks, you get the big jump in ERA. There is a reason for optimism this year though as his ground ball to flyball ratio was 0.85 last year, which is almost right on pace with his career mark. His home run to flyball percentage jumped all the way up to 11.3%, almost double his previous career high. With some regression to the norm this season, Cole could get his ERA back down under 4.00. The problem is his ADP in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) is 81.79, ahead of players including Masahiro Tanaka (99.84) and Jose Berrios (106.66). Cole appears to be trending upward, but his ADP is too high right now to provide enough value for your squad.

Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays

Stroman is a fine starting pitcher, winning 13 games and posting a 3.09 ERA for the Blue Jays last season. He doesn’t provide much in the way of strikeouts though with a career K/9 of 7.3. Considering he has posted a 1.29 WHIP or higher in back-to-back seasons, that can be a bit of a scary proposition. If you are going to select a starting pitcher who doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters, he needs to help you in both ERA and WHIP, not just ERA. Stroman’s current ADP is 134.78, which is too high considering his limitations.

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals

Gonzalez had a surprisingly good season in 2017, finishing 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. It marked the first time he had an ERA under three and a WHIP under 1.20 since 2012. His 8.4 K/9 was on par with his career numbers, but he was somewhat lucky with opposing hitter having a .261 BABIP against him. For his career, that mark is .296. He also had a FIP of 3.93 last year, so some regression in 2018 seems likely. With a current ADP of 153.70, it might be wise to avoid him during your draft.

Undervalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

Lance McCullers, Houston Astros

After recording an ERA of 3.22 in both of his first two seasons in the majors, McCullers finished with an ERA of 4.25 in 2017. However, his WHIP (1.30), HR/9 (0.6) and FIP (3.10) indicate he was a bit unlucky last year in terms of his ERA. He posted an excellent 10.0 K/9, which was actually down from 11.8 in 2016. Considering his ERA should improve this season, he records a lot of strikeouts and he should get a lot of opportunities for wins on a great team, McCullers ADP of 145.15 is a bargain. He’ll have a better K/9 than Cole and could finish with a similar ERA and WHIP, so I’d much rather take him several rounds later.

Jacob Faria, Tampa Bay Rays

Faria faired well in his first taste of the big leagues last year, posting a 3.43 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9. In his 24 career starts at Triple-A, Faria posted similar numbers with a 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, but his K/9 was significantly higher at 10.5. He had a 10.7 K/9 in 27 career starts at Double-A as well, so he could see an uptick in that department this season. Faria is just 24 years old heading into 2018 and is already an important part of the Rays rotation. His current ADP is just 233.29, which is far too low considering his upside. Don’t be surprised if his numbers are better than Stroman’s at the end of the season.

Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs

Chatwood did not have a good season for the Colorado Rockies last year, finishing 8-15 with a 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.3 K/9. He was destroyed when he pitched in Coors Field, posting a 6.01 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 70.1 innings. He was a much better pitcher on the road though with a 3.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 77.1 innings. The move to the Cubs should do wonders for his value since his career ERA at Coors was an unsightly 5.17. With an ADP 269.64, he’s someone to consider targeting late in your drafts to add depth to your rotation, just don’t count on him for a lot of strikeouts.

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Shortstop

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Shortstop

There have been some elite fantasy options at shortstop in the last decade, but the position hasn’t always had great depth. That’s not an issue in 2018 as there are plenty of valuable options available. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some shortstops who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Shortstop

Trea Turner, Washington Nationals

Turner is a stolen base machine. Despite playing only 98 games due to injury last year, he still stole 46 bases. He has only played 198 career games in the majors but already has 81 steals. He also hit .284 last year and should be an asset in batting average again for 2018. Unlike some of the other elite base stealers though, Turner won’t kill you in the power department. In his last 171 games, he has 24 home runs. He’s going to hit at the top of one of the best lineups in baseball, further increasing his already lofty value. Not only is he the best fantasy shortstop, but he should finish in the top-five of fantasy in general if he can stay healthy.

Carlos Correa, Houston Astros

Correa took a big leap forward in the power department in 2017, hitting 24 home runs with a .550 slugging percentage. He posted a 39.5% hard hit percentage, helping to lead to a career-high .315 batting average. There really aren’t any negative things you can say about Correa’s game. He only had a 19.1% strikeout percentage compared to an 11% walk percentage and 40.7% of the balls he put in play were hit to center field. He did only steal two bases in 109 games, but you shouldn’t be expecting significant steals from him anyways as he only had 13 in 2016. You will likely have to use a second-round pick to get him depending on the size of your league, but he will be worth it.

Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians

Lindor thrived in his first full season in the majors in 2016, hitting .301 with 15 home runs, 78 RBI, 19 steals and 99 runs scored. Not profiled to be a big power hitter, Lindor was just that in 2017, slugging 33 round trippers. He also had 44 doubles, resulting in a .505 slugging percentage. His batting average did drop to .273, but he still stole 15 bases. His strikeout and walk percentages were the same in both 2016 and 2017, but he posted by far his best hard hit percentage in 2017 at 35.2%. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a slight decrease in home runs this year, but 25 home runs, 15 steals, and a .280 average are all reasonable expectations. If you miss out on Turner or Correa, Lindor is an excellent consolation prize.

Overvalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Shortstop

Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers

Seager has quickly become an excellent player for the Dodgers, recording at least 22 home runs and 77 RBI in both of his first two full seasons in the majors. He hit .295 with a .375 OBP last year, showing he can provide fantasy owners with both power numbers and batting average. With a career 42.1% hard hit percentage, he should be able to consistently hit for a high average as well. There isn’t really anything negative to say about Seager other than he doesn’t steal bases. However, his current ADP in the NFBC is 38.75. Players that are being selected well after Seager include Nelson Cruz (55.87), Christian Yelich (59.33) and Daniel Murphy (69.44). Shortstop is not a shallow position, so don’t feel forced to draft Seager so early.

Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers

After never hitting more than eight home runs in a season during the first eight years of his career, Andrus broke out with 20 homers in 2017. He also had 44 doubles, leading to a career-high .471 slugging percentage. He batted .297 with 88 RBI, 100 runs scored and 25 steals as well, providing one of the better all-around campaigns in the league.  The increased power numbers were likely because of a change in his approach at the plate. He had a career-low 5.5% walk percentage and pulled a career-high 44.8% of the balls he put in play. For comparison, his pull percentage for his career is 37.2%. He should still be able to provide plenty of value in batting average and stolen bases, but even with his changed approach at the plate, 20 homers will be tough to duplicate. His current ADP is 58.36, which is clearly banking on him to do just that. I’d pass on him at that price.

 

Undervalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Shortstop

Orlando Arcia, Milwaukee Brewers

Arcia struggled in his brief appearance in the majors in 2016, batting only .219 with four home runs in 55 games. He settled in nicely in 2017 though, batting .277 with 15 home runs, 53 RBI, and 14 steals. He had a career .282 average in the minor leagues, so his performance last year is closer to what you should expect from him moving forward. His OBP has never been particularly high and he swung at 38.7% of the pitches he saw outside the strike zone last year, which is an area where he’ll need to improve. However, it’s not unreasonable to expect him to hit .270 with 15 home runs and 15 steals this season. With a current ADP of 186.36, that type of production would be a bargain.

Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs

Russell had big expectations heading into last year after providing 21 home runs and 95 RBI in 2016. He couldn’t live up to the hype though, with injuries limiting him to just 110 games. He also dealt with an off-the-field issue which could have impacted his performance. The end result was only 12 home runs, 43 RBI, and a .239 average. Don’t forget, Russell is still only 24 years old. He still has excellent potential and while he might not hit for a high average, his power numbers could return with a healthy season. The once hot fantasy commodity now has an ADP of 259.37. I wouldn’t be afraid to take a chance on him that low in your draft.

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

Second base provides a unique opportunity because you can go in any number of directions with the position. There are big power hitters, speedsters, and players that hit for high average littered throughout the position. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some second basemen who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

This is an easy one. Not only is Altuve the best second baseman, but I’d rank him second overall behind Angels outfielder Mike Trout. Altuve won the AL-MVP last year, batting .346 with 24 home runs, 81 RBI, 112 runs scored and 32 stolen bases. He had a career-high OPS+ of 164 and played in at least 147 games for the sixth straight season. His speed and ability to hit for a high average gave him significant value early in his career, but he’s moved into elite fantasy status by clubbing at least 24 home runs in back-t0-back seasons. He’s heading into the prime of his career at just 27 years old, so don’t expect him to slow down this season.

Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians

Ramirez made his mark on fantasy baseball in 2016, hitting .312 with 11 home runs, 76 RBI, and 22 steals. He also had 46 doubles, showing signs that a big power season might soon be on the horizon. That season came last year, finishing with 29 home runs. But wait, he also hit a league-leading 56 doubles. The result was a spectacular .583 slugging percentage, putting him inside the top-10 in the league. His power did not come at the expense of his batting average either as he still hit .318. His hard hit percentage has increased each season, topping out at 34% last year. He doesn’t have as much upside as Altuve, but his ability to contribute across the board makes him the clear second best option at the keystone position.

Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins

Dozier is a masher at second base, slugging at least 28 home runs in three straight seasons. It was going to be tough for him to match the 42 home runs that he hit in 2016, but he still hit 34 homers last year. He’s more than just a slugger though, scoring at least 100 runs and stealing at least 12 bases in four straight seasons. He hindered fantasy owners with his batting average early in his career but has hit at least .268 in back-to-back seasons. He had a hard hit percentage of at least 34.1% in both of those seasons, which was a big reason why his average improved. If you miss out on Altuve or Ramirez, draft Dozier with confidence.

Overvalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

Dee Gordon, Seattle Mariners

Steals are not easy to come by, but Gordon is one of the elite base stealers in all of baseball. He has led the league in steals three of the last four seasons, finishing with at least 58 steals all three times. The one year he didn’t lead the league was when he played just 79 games in 2016 due to a suspension. Amazingly, he still finished with 30 steals that year. Gordon is not just about steals though as he has a .293 career batting average and scored 114 runs last year. He’s going to play center field for the Mariners this year, but will still carry over second base eligibility. The Mariners have a potent lineup, which should leave Gordon with plenty of opportunities to score runs. The problem is, he has never hit more than four home runs or recorded more than 46 RBI in a single season. If your league counts OBP, his career mark of .329 is not impressive either. His current ADP in the NFBC is too high at 28.47, which is actually ahead of Dozier (37.87). Let someone else take him at that price.

Chris Taylor, Los Angeles Dodgers

Taylor was one of the biggest surprises in fantasy baseball last year. He played in only 120 total games the previous three seasons but played 140 games in 2017. He made the most of his opportunity, hitting .288 with 21 home runs, 72 RBI, 85 runs scored and 17 steals. One area of concern is his drastic splits though, batting .237 with a .306 BABIP at home compared to .336 with a .412 BABIP on the road. His overall numbers are valuable, but his current ADP of 90.83 is ninth-highest among second basemen. Marwin Gonzalez’s current ADP is 114.25 and he could provide very similar numbers outside of stolen bases, although he did steal eight bases last year. It might be wise to pass on Taylor if forced to select him so early.

Undervalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Second Base

Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have one of the most flexible rosters in the league, but Happ should still get plenty of at-bats. He played in just 115 games last year, but still managed hit 24 home runs to go along with 68 RBI, 62 runs scored and eight steals. He batted only .253 though and struck out 31.2% of the time. The high strikeouts may have just been him getting adjusted to major league pitching as he never struck out more than 23.6% of the time during any of his stops in the minors. His current ADP is 137.46, which is a bargain considering his potential. Don’t be surprised if he finishes with a more productive season than Taylor.

Ian Kinsler, Los Angeles Angels

Today’s craze in baseball is young talent. There seems to more elite young players across the league now than in recent years, which can often make you forget about productive veterans in terms of fantasy. A lot of people might be down on Kinsler after a rough 2017 campaign that saw him hit a career-low .236. His numbers indicate he could rebound this season as last year he had only a .244 BABIP, well below his career mark of .286. Another possible indicator for improvement this year is that he also had a 37% hard hit percentage last year, which was the highest of his career. Yes, he’s getting older, but the numbers indicate he had few bounces go his way last year.  Not only should his average improve this year, but he is also a threat to hit 20 home runs and steal 15 bases. His current ADP is only 189.25, making him someone to target late in your draft.

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

The MLB offseason is often referred to as the “Hot Stove” due to all of the trades and signings that occur in the winter months. However, the market has developed extremely slowly this year, leaving several impact players still left unsigned. As we continue our fantasy baseball season preview series, we’ll take a look at some big names who are available and the potential impact they could have this season.

J.D. Martinez, OF

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

Martinez had his breakout campaign with the Tigers when he batted .282 with 38 home runs, 102 RBI and 93 runs scored in 2015. The Tigers decided to start the rebuilding process last year, shipping Martinez to the Diamondbacks. He went on to have a scorching hot finish, hitting .302 with 29 home runs, 65 RBI and 47 runs scored in only 62 games with his new team.

Martinez is still on the market and should command a hefty contract. He’s not a great defender, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he ends up in the American League where he can also spend some time at DH, especially towards the end of his contract. He’s only played more than 123 games once in his career, so it might be tough for him to hold up as an everyday outfielder as he gets older.

No matter where Martinez signs, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be able to perform at the rate he did with the Diamondbacks. He hit a home run ever 8.0 at-bats with Arizona, which is far more frequent than his career average of once every 18.6 at-bats. Even during his stellar 2015 season, he only hit a home run once every 15.7 at-bats. He does hit for a high average, so he doesn’t need to hit over 40 home runs to still be an extremely valuable fantasy asset. Expect him to finish this season around the top-10 fantasy outfielders.

Yu Darvish, SP

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

Darvish is the big fish still left in the sea when it comes to starting pitchers with rumored interested suitors being the Yankees, Twins, Brewers, Cubs, Rangers, and Dodgers. Although he struggled mightily in the World Series, his strong finish with the Dodgers was a big part of why they made it that far.

The good news from a fantasy perspective is that Darvish pitched 186.2 innings during the regular season. He missed the entire 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery and pitched only 100.1 innings in 2016. He’s an elite strikeout pitcher when healthy, posting an 11.0 K/9 for his career. No matter where he signs, Darvish should still provide strong value in most categories. However, if you play in a league that counts wins, you’d like to see him sign with a team that has a potent offense and a strong bullpen. If he ultimately ends up with the Cubs, Dodgers or Yankees, he could surpass his previous career-high of 16 wins that he set back in 2012.

Eric Hosmer, 1B

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

The first base market has been slow to develop with many of baseball’s better teams already set at the position. Hosmer has had limited suitors as a result, with the two primary teams reportedly interested being the Royals and the Padres.

Hosmer is not your traditional masher at first base. He’s never hit more than 25 home runs in a season and has reached at least 100 RBI only one time during his career. The good news is he set career-highs last year in batting average (.318) and OBP (.385). He only had a strikeout percentage of 15.5% as well, marking the fourth time in his career he has finished under 16%.

The bad news with Hosmer is that he’s been wildly inconsistent. For example, his batting averages the last four seasons have been .270, .297, .266 and .318, respectively. Those are some big swings when you consider you aren’t drafting him for his ability to hit home runs. With so many other elite options at first base, expect Hosmer to rank someone between 10 and 15 at the position when the season is all said and done.

Mike Moustakas, 3B

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

Moustakas if a former first-round pick who has spent his entire seven-year career with the Royals. He had largely not lived up to the hype heading into the 2017 season, making only one All-Star team during his career. The one time he received that honor was in 2015 when he finished the season batting .284 with 22 home runs, 82 RBI, and 73 runs scored. Those are solid numbers, but nothing to write home about.

He finally had his breakout season in 2017, hitting a franchise-record 38 home runs. The problem was the Royals were one of the worst offensive teams in the league, resulting in 27 of his home runs being solo shots. He finished with just 85 RBI and 75 runs scored.

Considering he hit so many home runs, it’s impressive that he only had a 15.7% strikeout percentage. It’s not out of the ordinary for Moustakas though as he has a 15.5% strikeout percentage for his career. He did appear to take a more aggressive approach at the plate though, seeing only 3.78 pitchers per plate appearance, the second fewest of his career. Also, he struck out swinging on 96.8% of his strikeouts last year, by far the highest percentage of his career.

There hasn’t been a lot of buzz surrounding Moustakas this winter, but he could actually see an increase in value if he leaves the Royals. Of his 38 home runs last year, 24 of them came on the road. If he moves to a team with a more hitter-friendly ballpark, he could approach 30 home runs again this season. Landing on a potent offensive team like the Yankees would be ideal. Even if he finds the perfect fit, his ceiling isn’t much higher than that of a top 12-to-15 third baseman in fantasy baseball.

Lorenzo Cain, OF

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

Cain certainly wasn’t the cause of the Royals anemic offense last year, batting .300 with a career-high .363 OBP. It marked the third time in the last four seasons that he finished with a batting average of at least .300. Not only did he have a career-low 15.5% strikeout percentage, but he also recorded a career-high 8.4% walk percentage.

Cain can provide value with his speed, stealing at least 26 bases in three of the last four years. While he did have 26 steals last year, it’s important to note that those came in a career-high 155 games played. In 2014 and 2015 when he finished with 28 steals each season, he played in 133 and 140 games, respectively. Cain also doesn’t provide much in the way of home runs, hitting no more than 16 home runs in any season of his career.

Like many of the big name free agents, the market for Cain has been slow to develop. Regardless of where he signs, he really doesn’t have a high upside in any category outside of batting average. As a result, his ceiling is likely finishing just inside the top-20 outfielders in fantasy, with his floor being in the 25-30 range as long as he stays healthy.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks – Monday, September 18, 2017

by Austyn Varney 0 Comments

*Austyn Varney*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks – Monday, September 18, 2017

*STARTING PITCHERS*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks - Sammy Kershaw - Dodgers - Lineup Lab.com

Clayton Kershaw @ Philadelphia Phillies
Park – Citizens Bank Park
Opp implied total – 2.38

We only have 7 games on the slate tonight, so are pickings are quite a bit slimmer out. Fortunately, we do have Clayton a Kershaw against the Phillies. The biggest concern for Kershaw recent has been his pitch count. He saw 91 last time out and I think he gets there again. The Phillies are obviously a trash defense and they’ve sported just a .299 wOBA vs L since the break, while striking out nearly 24% of the time. We know how great Kershaw is, but a 12 K/9 and 2.64 xFIP solidify it. The Dodgers are -330 favorites and implied to put up nearly 6 runs. The win will be there for Kershaw, even if he just goes 5 or 6. The problem here is the lack of pivots. We’ll touch on one next, but he’s it. The bottom is ugly and there isn’t any arm that I have hope in. Kershaw is the clear top option on the slate and a guy you’re almost forced into in cash games.

Patrick Corbin @ San Diego Padres
Park – Petco Park
Vegas O/U – 3.39

Fortunately, we do have 1 solid pivot off of Clayton Kershaw. Patrick Corbin and the D-Backs enter San Diego to face the Padres in spacious Petco Park. Corbin has made a name for himself on the season, striking out 10 batters per 9 and holding a respectable .291 combined wOBA. He’s death to lefties and not much worse against righties either with a 63% GB rate. The Padres are one of he worst offenses in baseball and happen to call Petco Park, the worst hitting park in baseball, home. Corbin should be able to get up to 110 pitches if he’s slicing and dicing, which does give him substantially more upside for the price than even Kershaw. All in all, these are 2 guys who are extremely skilled and you’ll certainly have to pick at least 1 of them.

*OFFENSIVE STACKS*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks - Miami Marlins - Lineuplab

Miami Marlins Vs Matt Harvey (Mets)
Park – Marlins Park
Implied Total – 4.73

Boy oh boy, how the great have fallen. Once an ace that could be counted on to dominate, now a so-so 4 starter with not much upside. I don’t know what the problem is with Harvey, bits it’s certainly more than just 1. Literally, every single thing he was good at just 2 years ago is out the window to never be found again. For god sake, Harvey has allowed a whopping .394 wOBA to lefties. He’s also given up 17 homers in just 70 innings, so the HR issue looks to be here to stay. This Miami Marlins offense isn’t full of stars, but they are lethal. It all obviously starts with Stanton, who’ still chasing the 60 HR mark. You then get to Yelich and Gordon, who smash righties consistently. After that, the Marlins lineup is pretty spread out and I think you can go anywhere. Ozuna would be the obvious one to go with. You also have Justin Bour and Derek Dietrich, who hit righties extremely well and won’t be nearly as high owned.

Main Stack – Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna
Sneaky Stack – Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Nick Pivetta (Phillies)
Park – Citizens Bank Park
Implied Total – 5.27

With just 7 games to choose from, we don’t have a bunch of offenses with crazy totals. I’d say the Marlins, Dodgers, and Yankees will e the 3 stacks who garner some attention. After that, everything else will be contrarian and off the board. The Dodgers, as I’ve mentioned, enter into this game as -330 favorites against Nick Pivetta. Pivetta has actually been worse against righties, but is still not any good vs lefties with a .331 wOBA. The Dodgers are moving from spacious Dodgers Stadium to Citizens Bank Park, where it’s much easier to hit homers. Justin Turner and Corey Seager are my 2 favorite options as they both drill righties and don’t rely on power for production. Next are Cody Berlinger and Yasmani Grandal. 2 power bats that can send one to the moon at any point. The Dodgers lineup is expected to put up close to 6 runs and you have to get some exposure in cash games.

Main Stack – Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal
Sneaky Stack – Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Yasiel Puig, Curtis Granderson






MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks for August 21, 2017

by Austyn Varney 0 Comments

*Austyn Varney*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks – Monday, August 21, 2017

*STARTING PITCHERS*

Alex Wood - Los Angeles Dodgers - MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks

Alex Wood @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Park – PNC Park
Opp implied total – 3.72

The truth of the matter is that we don’t have a lot of pitching on this slate. With just 8 games on the books, it’s somewhat expected. We do at least have a guy in Alex Wood that should have a solid game. The Pirates are projected for under 3 runs and can strikeout a good amount. We know how good Wood is, or how good he can be I should say. So far on the season, he’s posted an elite .249 combined wOBA and has struck out over 9 batters per 9 innings. He has controlled both sides of the plate quite nicely and has also dropped his HR issue from past years. As for the Pirates, they are as average as you can get. Against lefties, they’ve ranked 17th in baseball with a .316 wOBA. They K 20% of the time and are nothing to be afraid of in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Alex Wood is the top play by a mile and the ownership will reflect that. Don’t get cute in cash games.

Zach Davies @ San Francisco Giants
Park – AT&T Park
Vegas O/U – 3.91

Like I said, pitching is ugly. Whenever Zach Davies is the 2nd best option on a slate, my previous comment goes unsaid. He is at least facing off with the worst team in baseball against righties. The Giants have been dead last against righties with a .291 wOBA and have been only worse at home in the best pitchers park in the league. They do have some big-name bats, but they kind of stink. Buster Posey isn’t very good against righties and neither is Hunter Pence. the rest of the order is full of weak bats. While they don’t strike out much, they also don’t have the power to hit one out. Davies isn’t a great pitcher by any means, but he’s decent. He’s sported a .326 wOBA and has backed it up with a 6.5 K/9 and 27% hard contact rate. The park is optimal and I think Davies is safer than any other SP2 you will find.

*OFFENSIVE STACKS*

Manny Machado - Baltimore Orioles - MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks - Lineuplab
Baltimore Orioles Vs Chris Smith (Athletics)
Park – Camden Yards
Implied Total – 5.83

While we don’t have a bunch of big pitchers on the slate, we also don’t have any gas cans that you can target with no caution. Chris Smith is the worst pitcher on the slate and he’ll be pitching in Camden Yards. He first pitched in 2006, which should actually tell you a lot. He’s 36 years old and is not going to find his way now. Through his 5 random years between 2006 and now, he’s allowed a .340 wOBA to both lefties and righties. He’s used to pitching in the Oakland Coliseum (top 5 pitcher park) and will have a ton of trouble moving to a top 5 hitting ballpark. Manny Machado is the top option and I wouldn’t consider making a stack without him. Schoop and Adam Jones are next as supreme cash game options. The rest of the order is filled with power and you can really go anywhere you want. Mancini and Trumbo are my favorites and should only be about 10-15% owned.

Main Stack – Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini
Sneaky Stack – Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Tim Beckham, Chris Davis

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Robert Gsellman (Mets)
Park – Citi Field
Implied Total – 4.75

Honestly, I don’t love any offense after the Orioles. Gsellman is a talented pitcher that hasn’t found his footing in quite some time. Ths Diamondbacks team is good against righties and they hold a 4.75 implied total. On the season, Gsellman has been absolutely atrocious. He’s posted a .365 combined wOBA and has given up 14 homers in just 70 innings. He’s walking nearly 4 batters per 9 innings and is striking out just 6. All in all, Gsellman is nowhere near where he needs to be. We know how lethal this offense can be and with the addition of J.D. Martinez, they have an insane 4-man cash game stack. Lamb, Goldy, Peralta, and Pollock are elite and they are the easy cash game stack. If you want to go crazy, I would look for a power bat towards the bottom of the lineup that will come in under 10%. Chris Herrmann will be that guy for me.

Main Stack – Jake Lamb, David Peralta, A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt
Sneaky Stack – Jake Lamb, David Peralta, J.D. Martinez, Chris Herrmann

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks for August 16, 2017

by Austyn Varney 0 Comments

*Austyn Varney*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks – Wednesday, August 16, 2017

*STARTING PITCHERS*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks - Lineuplab - Yu Darvish - Los Angeles Dodgers

Yu Darvish Vs Chicago White Sox
Park – Dodger Stadium
Opp implied total – 2.70

When first glancing at this slate, it became clear how much of a premium a good starter will hold. Out of the 18 teams on this slate, 15 are projected for over 4 runs and 8 teams with run totals over 5. Fortunately, we do have a couple very solid options to look at. I do think the first one is pretty clear with Yu Darvish. Darvish and the Dodgers will welcome the lowly White Sox into Dodger Stadium tonight with full anticipation of destroying them. With an 8 over/under, the Sox are expected to put up 2.70 to the Dodgers’ 5.30. Darvish is the biggest favorite on the board and has a price across the industry that provides a ton of safety. He’s been excellent all season and his numbers figure to only go up with the pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium his new home. He’s posted a .296 wOBA on the year and has backed it up with a 10.15 K/9. This is as safe as it gets for Darvish and he will be plugged into 100% of my lineups. I’m not sure you can afford fading him on a slate with so many explosive offenses in the minefield.

Marcus Stroman Vs Toronto Blue Jays
Park – Tropicana Field
Vegas O/U – 3.94

If you’re unwilling to pay the hefty price for Darvish or need a high-end SP2, Stroman is your guy. While some may go after Carrasco, who is perfectly fine, I slightly prefer Stroman. He will be lower owned and has a similar floor and ceiling. The Rays are projected to put up 3.94 runs and the Jays come in at -148 favorites. We know how bad the Rays are against righties and we should always be looking to take advantage. While the Rays hold up their wOBA against righties with guys like Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison, but the rest of the order surely weighs it down. What those 2 guys don’t do is bolster the K rate. Against right-handers, the Rays have struck out the 2nd most at 25.2%. The upside is undeniable here for Stroman and with him pitching so much better at home, I’m fine with him in all formats.

*OFFENSIVE STACKS*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks - Texas Rangers - Joey Gallo - Lineup Lab

Texas Rangers Vs Anibal Sanchez (Tigers)
Park – Globe Life Park
Implied Total – 6.03

There are definitely a lot of offenses to choose from here, which is a ton of fun. When you can go in knowing that your stack is going to be less than 20% owned, you don’t have to worry about going contrarian at all. You can grab whoever you want from these teams tonight and you won’t see any ridiculous ownership. My favorite of the bunch is the Texas Rangers. The Rangers are hosting the Detroit Tigers, who bolster an atrocious rotation and bullpen. Anibal Sanchez will take the mound as one of the absolute worst pitchers in the entire league, undoubtedly. Against righties, he’s posted a .409 wOBA and 12 homers in less than 40 innings. Yes, you read that correctly. He now moves into one of the best hitting parks in the league and figures to get knocked around. I don’t mind any of these Rangers bats, but definitely prefer a few. Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo are 2 of my favorite HR candidates on the slate and I’ll have a ton of both all over my teams. Beltre, Mazara, and Choo are all very similar and I can understand going either way. Furthermore, the bottom of the order is full of guys with upside. You can pick 1 if you want, but will have to sacrifice a bigger bat.

Main Stack – Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, Adrian Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo
Sneaky Stack – Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields

Chicago Cubs Vs Homer Bailey (Reds)
Park – Wrigley Field
Implied Total – N/A

The Cubs are always a team you can target in Wrigley Field, but especially tonight. They face off with Homer Bailey, who like Anibal Sanchez, has been absolutely atrocious against both lefties and righties. With a combined wOBA of .417, it’s quite clear where Bailey does or doesn’t belong. He won’t be in the majors for too much longer and we should be targeting him as much as possible. He has a huge HR and when you combine that with Wrigley Field and this lineup, good things (for us) happen. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant are obviously amazing and always the top 2 hitters in this order. After that, you can really go anywhere. Avila/Contreras and Schwarber are my next 2 favorite and I think they have a ton of HR potential. The Cubs do have a somewhat-concentrated offense, but production can still come from guys like Javier Baez and Jason Heyward. The Cubs are expected to have a huge night and you have to love where they come in pricewise.

Main Stack – Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Alex Avila/Willson Contreras
Sneaky Stack – Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Alex Avila/Willson Contreras, Ben Zobrist

DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for August 11, 2017

by Chris Durell 0 Comments

*Chris Durell*

DraftKings / FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for August 11, 2017

Welcome back for another exciting installment of our daily fantasy baseball picks. With no afternoon games, we get a full 15-game slate tonight so let’s jump in and take a look at a couple of the top pitchers and some stacking options. 

Starting Pitchers
 

Carlos Carrasco
Opponent – @ TB
Park – Tropicana Field
Vegas Favorite (CLE -135)
Vegas Total (8.0)

This slate is chalk full of risk and it starts at the pitcher position. On DraftKings, it seems almost crazy to pay $12K+ for Rich Hill in cash games. Pitch count has been a word that follows almost every Dodgers pitcher, especially since Kershaw went down. I think it is an alright GPP play considering the matchup but for cash games, I will take the discount and roll with Carlos Carrasco. Sure, he has struggled giving up five earned runs in back to back starts but is running a very unsustainable BABIP right now and is likely to see some positive regression real soon. Despite the struggles, he has kept his xFIP in the mid 3’s and has an elite 9.78 K/9 rate and 12.5% swinging strike rate. He gets a boost in upside tonight as the Rays strike out 25% of the time vs. right-handed pitchers and have been even worse over the last 14 days striking out 28% of the time.

Charlie Morton
Opponent – @ TEX
Park – Globe Life Park in Arlington
Vegas Favorite (HOU -125)
Vegas Total (9.5)

This play is definitely GPP only as it comes with a ton of risk but on the flip side also comes with a ton of upside. The Rangers have a scary offense that ranks inside the Top 10 when looking at runs scored and they also play in a very hitter friendly ballpark, especially in the heat of summer. With that said, they have seen an elevated K rate(27.2%) over the last 14 days with a league average wOBA and wRC+. This fits my strikeout model perfectly tonight as Charlie Morton provides his own upside with a 9.82 K/9 rate and he has also been very steady this season with a 3.78 ERA and 3.71 xFIP. The risk is there but you aren’t going to find a pitcher without any and at least Morton gives us access to some huge upside at a price below $10K.

Top Stacks

I am much more excited about stacking than I was last night as there are currently nine teams with an implied run total greater than five and two teams sitting at over 5.5 right now. My favorite team to stack tonight is the Dodgers once again as they get a matchup vs. another left-handed pitcher after putting up eight runs in another win last night. I will be heavy on Chris Taylor, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Enrique Hernandez. If you are looking for some lower ownership with your stack tonight there is a chance the Brewers come lower owned than usual thanks to their struggles lately. They do have a ton of power upside and get an elite matchup vs. Homer Bailey who has given up five or more earned runs in five of his nine starts this season. For the Brew Crew, I am targeting Eric Thames, Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, and Travis Shaw.