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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

There are a lot of teams off Thursday, leaving only nine games for the main evening slate in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18

Tyler Skaggs vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $10,400

Skaggs is on pace for the best season of his career, posting a 3.07 ERA and 3.19 FIP through eight starts. He had finished with a WHIP of at least 1.39 in back-to-back seasons but has been able to cut that down to 1.21 this year. He’s allowed a .300 BABIP and a 37.1% hard-hit rate, which are both either at or higher than his career marks, so he’s not exactly getting lucky either. His 9.4 K/9 this season has been aided by the fact that he has thrown a first-pitch strike to 65.8% of the batters that he has faced and a career-best 10.4% swinging strike rate. His price is climbing, but he’s certainly one of the best options Thursday.

Chad Bettis vs. San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $7,200
DraftKings = $7,400

Bettis’ 3.12 ERA looks nice, but he’s been lucky with a 4.35 FIP and a .257 BABIP allowed that is over 50 percentage points lower than his career mark. He doesn’t have an overpowering arsenal either with just a 6.6 K/9 for his career. Like many pitchers, Bettis struggles in Coors field with a 5.37 ERA there for his career compared to a 4.29 ERA on the road. Those splits have been even more drastic this year with a 6.89 ERA in three home starts and a 1.35 ERA in five games on the road. Although his strikeout upside isn’t great, Bettis could be worth the risk in tournament play based on his price.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18

Eric Hosmer vs. Chad Kuhl, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – PNC Park
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $3,800

After recording only two home runs and four RBI in his first 26 games, Hosmer has picked up his production with four home runs and 12 RBI in his last 14 contests. He’s only batted .231 over that 14-game stretch, but that’s mostly because of his abnormally low .205 BABIP. Hosmer has followed up his stellar .400 wOBA against right-handed pitchers in 2017 with a .377 mark this season, making him a great option against Kuhl, who really struggles against lefties.

Matt Olson vs. Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,600

Olson’s power numbers are way down, following up his .652 slugging percentage in 2017 with only a .404 mark this year. His strikeout rate sits at 30.4%, which certainly isn’t helping his cause any. He is only batting .238, which is a bit scary when you consider he has a favorable .323 BABIP. Despite all his struggles, he still has a .359 wOBA against righties this year and won’t face an overpowering one in Sanchez on Thursday, so he could provide upside considering his price.

Others to consider: Justin Smoak (first base) and James McCann (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18

Jed Lowrie vs. Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,100

Lowrie has cooled off some after his torrid start, but he’s still batting .296 in May. His power numbers are on the decline with one double and three home runs this month, but that was to be expected considering his career .414 slugging percentage.  He hit righties well last year with a .353 wOBA and has been even better with a .423 wOBA this season, making him another Athletics’ hitter who could provide value against Sanchez.

Rougned Odor vs. James Shields, Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $3,100

Odor batted only .204 last year, but he provided plenty of power with 30 home runs. Injuries have limited him to just 16 games this season, but he’s still looking for his first homer. Shields doesn’t exactly have electric stuff anymore with a 5.44 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 5.3 K/9 this season and Odor does have more success against righties, so he may have some upside.

Others to consider: Ozzie Albies and Sean Rodriguez

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18

Nolan Arenado vs. Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $5,100

Samardzija is struggling, to say the least, recording a 6.94 ERA, 6.27 FIP and 1.71 WHIP across his first five starts. He’s had major control issues with a 5.8 BB/9 and has already allowed five home runs in just 23.1 innings. Things could get ugly for him again Thursday, especially against Arenado since he is 12-for-29 (.414) against him in his career.

Danny Valencia vs. David Price, Boston Red Sox
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,800

Price hasn’t pitched well since leaving his start against the Yankees April 11 with an injury, watching his ERA increase from 2.40 to 4.89 since. He’s pitched more than 5.2 innings only after that game and could be risky moving forward due to his battle with carpal tunnel syndrome. Valencia hits lefties well and is 13-for-22 (.591) against Price in his career.

Others to consider: Josh Donaldson and Matt Chapman

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18

Manny Machado vs. David Price, Boston Red Sox
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $5,600

Machado is a good player to target most nights unless he’s facing one of the true elite aces in the league. Not only is he batting a robust .342, but he also has 13 home runs and 11 doubles. He has hit Price well in his career too, going 11-for-37 (.297) with four home runs.

Jose Iglesias vs. Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $3,000

If you can make Machado work in your budget, he’s the option I prefer at shortstop. However, if you need to save some money at the position, Iglesias is someone to have on your radar. He has really struggled against righties with a .282 wOBA against them for his career but has a .328 wOBA against lefties. Gonzales has had troubles keeping runners off base with a 1.64 WHIP for his career, so Iglesias may be able to find his way on base a couple of times in this game.

Others to consider: Jean Segura and Marcus Semien

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18

Mookie Betts vs. Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $5,300
DraftKings = $5,800

I’ve already discussed a couple of Orioles’ hitters with favorable matchups in this game, but now it’s time to move to the other dugout with Betts. He’s been one of the elite hitters in all of baseball this year and even though Gausman is off to an encouraging start, Betts is 12-for-29 (.414) with three home runs against him in his career. Betts actually has more walks (four) than strikeouts (three) against Gausman.

Joey Gallo vs. James Shields, Chicago White Sox
Stadium = Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,300

When you play Gallo, it’s for his home run upside since he is only batting .201 for his career. This year has been no different with a .200 average and a 34.3% strikeout rate. The power is still there though and Shields has a HR/9 of at least 2.0 in back-to-back seasons, so Gallo could be worth the risk at this price.

Gerardo Parra vs. Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $3,300

Parra really struggles against lefties, but his wOBA for his career is almost 50 percentage points higher against righties. He’s not off to a great start this season with a .674 OPS, but facing Samardzija might be just what he needs since he is 12-for-20 (.400) with two home runs against him in his career.

Others to consider: Nomar Mazara and Franchy Cordero

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/9/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/9/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

We’ve got a good mix of day and night games in baseball Wednesday, so let’s take a look at some options to consider for both slates. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/9/18

Gerrit Cole vs. Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $12,000
DraftKings = $13,400

Cole has been dominant for the Astros and has helped them to have one of the best, if not the best, starting rotation in baseball. Through seven starts with his new squad, he has a 1.42 ERA, 1.55 FIP, and 0.69 WHIP. After allowing 1.4 HR/9 last season, which was almost double his career mark, he has corrected that issue by allowing only three home runs in 50.2 innings. The biggest difference for Cole has been a massive increase in strikeouts with a 13.7 K/9. His ERA is unlikely to stay this low over the course of the entire season, especially considering his opponents only have a .247 BABIP. However, he is still going to provide a ton of strikeouts and is the best starting pitcher available if you are playing the afternoon slate.

Chris Stratton vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Stadium – Citizens Bank Park
FanDuel = $7,600
DraftKings = $5,900

Stratton didn’t have spectacular numbers in the minor leagues, recording a 4.07 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 7.9 K/9 in 623.2 innings. He only pitched 58.2 innings for the Giants last year and while he finished with a respectable 3.68 ERA, his 1.48 WHIP and 4.3 BB/9 were reasons for concern. One area that Stratton has excelled in during his brief Major League career is keeping batters in the ballpark, allowing 0.8 HR/9. He’s done a better job limiting baserunners this season with a 1.23 WHIP. His 3.99 ERA isn’t great, but a lot of that is because he gave up six earned runs in just 1.1 innings in one start against the Dodgers. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his other six outings. His strikeout upside isn’t great, but he’s someone to consider if you’re looking for a cheap starter for the night slate.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/9/18

Brandon Belt vs. Nick Pivetta, Philadelphia Phillies
Stadium – Citizens Bank Park
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $4,000

Injuries limited Belt to 104 games last year, but he’s healthy now and putting up big numbers, batting .297 with six home runs and a .951 OPS. His .365 BABIP would seem to be very high, but with a career BABIP of .335, he might not actually be in line for that much of a regression over the course of the season. He had a wOBA of at least .362 against right-handers in each of the last three seasons and has a lofty .446 wOBA against them this year, making him a great option against Pivetta.

Ryon Healy vs. Jaime Garcia, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $3,800

Healy doesn’t walk much, drawing only 23 free passes last year in 605 plate appearances. Although he only has two walks so far this year, he’s batting a respectable .262 with five home runs. He showed he can hit for power in the minors and followed that up with 25 homers in his first full season in the majors last year. He recorded a .369 wOBA against left-handed pitchers in 2017, so he could provide value against the underwhelming Garcia.

Others to consider: Joey Votto (first base) and Wilson Contreras (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/9/18

Alen Hanson vs. Nick Pivetta, Philadelphia Phillies
Stadium – Citizens Bank Park
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $3,000

Hanson has taken over at second base with Joe Panik (thumb) on the DL and the Giants really couldn’t have asked for much more from him so far. Not only is he batting .286, but he’s hit for power with a .571 slugging percentage. He didn’t show that kind of power upside in the minors, but he did hit .284 over eight seasons. He has a .400 wOBA against righties in limited action this season, so he might be worth the risk in tournament play.

Jonathan Schoop vs. Eric Skoglund, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = $3,500

Schoop made his return from the DL on Tuesday, going 1-for-5 with two RBI and a run scored. He wasn’t hitting well before injuring his oblique, some of which can be attributed to just a 21.3 percent hard-hit rate. Despite his struggles, he still has a .324 wOBA against left-handers this year after posting a .397 wOBA against them in 2017. Skoglund hasn’t pitched well with a 6.84 ERA and 1.41 WHIP across five starts, making Schoop someone to consider at this cheap price.

Others to consider: Ozzie Albies and Whit Merrifield

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/9/18

Kris Bryant vs. Wei-Yin Chen, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Wrigley Field
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $5,200

Bryant is batting .284 this season despite his .313 BABIP that is 31 points lower than his career mark. He’s hitting the ball hard with a 42 percent hard-hit rate and continues to draw plenty of walks, helping lead him to a .415 OBP. He’s finished with a wRC+ of at least 150 against lefties in back-to-back seasons and if off to an even better start this season with a 258 wRC+ against them. You’ll have to pay up to get him into your lineup, but he also carries significant upside.

Adrian Beltre vs. Francisco Liriano, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,400

Beltre wasted no time in his first game back from the DL on Tuesday, going 3-for-4 with two RBI. He has batted at least .300 in five of the last six seasons and is showing no signs of slowing down this year with a .330 average. He has fared very well against Liriano during his career, batting .314 with a home run and four doubles in 42 plate appearances.

Others to consider: Mike Moustakas and Colin Moran

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/9/18

Manny Machado vs. Eric Skoglund, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $4,500
DraftKings = $4,900

Machado is in the midst of a power drought, homerless in nine straight games. He has just two doubles over that stretch as well. He only went hitless in two of those games though, so it’s not like he is in the middle of a prolonged slump in general. Facing Skoglund could be just what he needs to get his power swing back on track as he has a 1.4 HR/9 and has allowed a 50.6 percent hard-hit rate this season.

Jean Segura vs. Jaime Garcia, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $4,000

Segura has a prime spot in the Mariners lineup, hitting behind Dee Gordon with Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz providing protection after him. It’s helped him score 23 runs and record 24 RBI in only 34 games. He’s only scored at least 100 runs in a season once in his career and has never had more than 64 RBI, so he could be on his to a special season. With Garcia allowing a .383 wOBA to righties this season, Segura is another Mariner to consider putting into your lineup.

Others to consider: Francisco Lindor and Andrelton Simmons

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/9/18

Justin Upton vs. Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,800

Upton wasted no time in hitter-friendly Coors Field, hitting a home run in the first game of this series Tuesday. Upton demolished left-handers last year with a .472 wOBA. Considering Anderson allowed a .358 wOBA to righties last year, Upton could be in for another productive performance Wednesday.

Nelson Cruz vs. Jaime Garcia, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $4,200

If you are panicking because the normally reliable Cruz is batting only .255, you shouldn’t be. His BABIP sits at .254, which is over 50 percentage points lower than his career mark. He’s still hitting the ball well with a 43.6% hard-hit rate and his K% is actually down. With Garcia’s struggles against righties already detailed, Cruz isn’t someone to sleep on Wednesday.

Alex Gordon vs. Andrew Cashner, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = $3,400

Just when you thought Gordon’s days of being a viable fantasy option were well behind him, he’s batting .321 so far this season. He’s not walking much, but he does have a career-low 15.7% K%. His .355 BABIP probably won’t hold up, so don’t run out and grab him off waivers if you play in a season-long league. However, Cashner allows a lot of base runners and struggles against left-handed hitters, so you may be able to take advantage of Gordon’s hot start in DFS.

Others to consider: Mike Trout and Jorge Soler

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/8/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/8/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

There is only one day game in the majors Tuesday, leaving a bevy of options to choose from for evening slate in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/8/18

Aaron Nola vs. San Francisco Giants
Stadium – Citizens Bank Park
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $10,100

Nola has followed up his breakout campaign last year with a 2.17 ERA, 2.98 FIP, and 0.92 WHIP through seven starts. His K/9 is only 6.9, but expect that to increase sooner rather than later since he has finished with a K/9 of at least 9.8 in back-to-back seasons. He has been a bit lucky with opponents posting a .236 BABIP, but he has thrown a first-pitch strike to 65.7% of the batters that he has faced and has a 33.2% O-swing % (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone), both of which would be career highs. The Giants are tied for the eighth-fewest runs scored (141) in baseball, so look for a big performance from Nola.

Sean Newcomb vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $8,500

Newcomb has pitched well out of the gate with a 3.38 ERA, 3.17 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP. He had control issues last year with a 5.1 BB/9, but he’s cut that down to 3.9 this season, some of which can be attributed to him throwing a first-pitch strike to 64.8% of the batters that he has faced. He also provides excellent strikeout upside with a 10.9 K/9. Newcomb has been a better pitcher on the road during his Major League career, posting a 3.23 ERA compared to a 4.79 ERA at home. If you’re looking for a more cost-effective option, Newcomb might be worth the risk in tournament play.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/8/18

Edwin Encarnacion vs. Wade Miley, Milwaukee Brewers
Stadium – Miller Park
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,700

The Indians will lose the DH playing in Miller Park, but Encarnacion will likely start at first base over Yonder Alonso with the lefty Miley on the mound. Encarnacion is hitting just .198 this season, but a lot of that has to do with his .208 BABIP. He still has nine home runs and a 34.9% hard-hit rate that is actually slightly higher than his career mark. He has finished with a wOBA of at least .360 against lefties in eight straight seasons, so he could break out against Miley.

John Hicks vs. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $3,500

With Miguel Cabrera (hamstring) on the DL, Hicks has been seeing regular playing time. Despite playing in only 14 games this year, he has three home runs and four doubles to go along with a .283 average. He’s never had more than 190 plate appearances in a single season during his Major League career, but he did bat .283 in seven seasons in the minors. Minor has held lefties to just a .231 wOBA this season, but righties have had more success with a .364 wOBA. If you want to go the cheaper route, Hicks could provide value.

Others to consider: Anthony Rizzo (first base) and Gary Sanchez (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/8/18

Robinson Cano vs. Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $3,700

Cano isn’t hitting home runs like he did in his heyday with the Yankees, but he actually has as many walks as strikeouts this season. He’s never been someone who strikes out much, but he has 20 walks in 143 plate appearances this season after finishing with 49 walks in 648 plate appearances last year. He’s still hitting for a high average and has a .378 wOBA against right-handed pitchers in his career, making him an excellent option against the struggling Stroman.

Howie Kendrick vs. Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,800

Kendrick has proven to be an important part of the Nationals’ lineup this season due to several key injuries. His numbers aren’t flashy, but his .286 batting average is pretty much right in line with his career mark. He’s someone to target against left-handed pitchers after finishing with a .385 wOBA against them last year. Richard has allowed a .356 wOBA in his career against righties, making Kendrick a viable cost-effective option for your entry.

Others to consider: Starlin Castro and Cesar Hernandez

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/8/18

Eugenio Suarez vs. Jason Vargas, New York Mets
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $4,700

Vargas has been shelled in his two starts this season, recording a 16.20 ERA and 3.00 WHIP. He’s never had overpowering stuff with a 6.0 K/9 for his career, so add that to the fact that he has issued five walks and allowed five home runs in just 8.1 innings and you get a disaster. Suarez roughed up lefties for a 135 RC+ last year and has a 195 wRC+ against them this season, leaving you with a great opportunity to take advantage of Vargas.

Anthony Rendon vs. Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $3,700

Rendon has only played three games since coming off the DL, but he hasn’t shown signs of rust, batting 3-for- 10 with two doubles, three RBI, and three walks. He destroyed left-handed pitchers with a 186 wRC+ last year and is another Nationals righty to consider stacking against Richard, especially with his reasonable price on both sites.

Others to consider: Jose Ramirez and Colin Moran

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/8/18

Manny Machado vs. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $4,900

Machado is off to one of the hottest starts in baseball with a 1.054 OPS that ranks fourth in the American League. He currently has the highest BB% and lowest K% of his career to go along with a .277 ISO. He has a .440 wOBA against left-handed pitchers this year and Duffy has had problems limiting home runs through his seven starts, giving Machado significant upside in this matchup.

Jose Peraza vs. Jason Vargas, New York Mets
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,200

Peraza still doesn’t draw many walks, but his .285 average this season has been a significant improvement over his .259 mark last year. He’s striking out less and making better contact with a 27.3% hard-hit rate, so he’s finally starting to show signs of why he was thought of so highly by some people when he was given an everyday job last year, myself included. With Vargas struggling mightily right now, Peraza could provide value at this price, especially on FanDuel.

Others to consider: Trea Turner and Tim Anderson

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/8/18

Rhys Hoskins vs. Derek Holland, San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $4,900

Hoskins hasn’t shown any signs of struggling in his first full season in the majors, batting .281 with .928 OPS. He’s not off to the torrid home run pace that he was last year, but five homers and 10 doubles through 34 games is still impressive. With a .421 wOBA against lefties in his brief career, he makes a lot of sense against the struggling Holland on Tuesday.

Kyle Schwarber vs. Jose Urena, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Wrigley Field
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $4,800

Schwarber has put his struggles from last year behind him so far, batting .269 with a .376 OBP this season. Always a power threat, he also has a .548 slugging percentage. He still had a .343 wOBA against righties last year despite all his issues and has posted a .424 wOBA against them so far this season. Urena doesn’t overmatch many hitters with a 5.9 K/9 for his career, so he could have trouble getting Schwarber out in this game.

Nomar Mazara vs. Mike Fiers, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,800

Mazara hit exactly 20 home runs in both of his first two seasons with the Rangers but has already slugged eight homers this year. He has a 40.2% hard-hit rate, which is almost nine percentage points higher than his career mark. Mazara only has a .270 wOBA against lefties in his career, but righties have not proven to be as difficult, resulting in a .338 wOBA against them. If you’re looking for a cheaper outfielder with upside, Mazara might be your man.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/2/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/2/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

Tuesday was a day filled with aces taking the mound, but Wednesday will bring plenty of star pitchers as well, including Corey Kluber and Luis Severino. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/2/18

Corey Kluber vs. Texas Rangers
Stadium – Progressive Field
FanDuel = $11,600
DraftKings = $13,200

Kluber is off to a great start this season, recording a 2.18 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9 through six starts. He has pitched at least 6 2/3 innings and allowed three runs or fewer in each of those outings. Many hitters have found themselves in a hole early against Kluber, who has thrown a first-pitch strike to 66.5% of the batters that he has faced this season. Opponents have been a bit unlucky with a .198 BABIP against him, but his 33.3% hard-hit rate allowed is actually almost six percent higher than his career average. Kluber has been even more dominant pitching at Progressive Field, finishing with a 1.81 ERA there last year and allowing just three runs in 16 2/3 innings there this season. He’s expensive, but he should be worth it.

Sean Newcomb vs. New York Mets
Stadium – Citi Field
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = 7,600

Newcomb was originally scheduled to start Tuesday but was pushed back a day in favor of Mike Soroka making his Major League debut. Soroka is one of the rising stars in the Braves organization, but they are also relying on Newcomb to become an important part of their starting rotation. He’s had control issues in his brief Major League career, posting a 5.0 BB/9 through 127.2 innings. The good news is he doesn’t allow a lot of solid contact with a 27.4% hard-hit rate for his career. Add in his 9.7 K/9 last season and his 11.1 K/9 this year and he can provide value despite his high walk rate. The Mets have the second-lowest OPS (.603) against left-handed pitching this season, leaving Newcomb as a viable option at a reduced price.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/2/18

Justin Smoak vs. Fernando Romero, Minnesota Twins
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $3,500

The right-handed Romero will be making his Major League debut Wednesday for the Twins after getting his first taste of Triple-A this season. He spent last season in Double-A, finishing with a 3.53 ERA and 8.6 K/9. He won’t get an easy task in the Blue Jays, who have the sixth-highest OPS (.757) against righties this year. Although Smoak does have better numbers against left-handed pitchers, his .359 wOBA against righties last year still makes him someone to consider for your entry.

Joe Mauer vs. Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,300

Mauer isn’t nearly the threat that he was in his prime, but don’t forget that he still hit .305 last year with a .384 OBP. He’s off to another good start this year with a .286 average and a lofty .439 OBP. He’s followed up his .354 wOBA against righties last year with a .378 mark this season. If you want to take a cheaper route at first base, Mauer is someone to consider even with his lack of power upside.

Others to consider: Hanley Ramirez (first base) and Salvador Perez (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/2/18

Javier Baez vs. Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies
Stadium – Wrigley Field
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $4,400

Baez is off to a tremendous start this season with a .963 OPS, well above his career mark of .745. His .304 BABIP is lower than his career average, but he’s increased his hard-hit rate to 35.5% and his line-drive rate to 27%. Baez finished with a .378 wOBA against lefties in 2017, so he could be in line for a big day Wednesday.

Matt Carpenter vs. Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Busch Stadium
FanDuel = $3,100
DratfKings = $3,800

Carpenter batted a career-low .241 last year and has followed that up with an even worse .170 average this season. His BABIP was low last year, but his .203 BABIP this year is far lower and indicates his numbers should be on the rise sooner rather than later. Giolito is off to a nightmarish start with a 7.71 ERA and 1.71 WHIP through five outings, leaving Carpenter with upside.

Others to consider: Whit Merrifield and Wilmer Difo

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/2/18

Christian Villanueva vs. Derek Holland, San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $4,400

Villanueva has continued his red-hot start and now has a 1.112 OPS this season, which actually leads the National League. He has a staggering 386 wRC+ against lefties this year and will take on the struggling Derek Holland on Wednesday, who allowed a .408 wOBA to right-handed hitters in 2017.

Eugenio Suarez vs. Wade Miley, Milwaukee Brewers
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,500

Suarez has been limited to 14 games this season due to injury, but he’s hit when he’s been able to take the field, posting a .327 average and .410 OBP to go along with three home runs and 17 RBI. He had a .383 wOBA against lefties last year and Miley isn’t much more than a journeyman pitcher at this point in his career, so Suarez could provide excellent value.

Others to consider: Kris Bryant and Evan Longoria

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/2/18

Manny Machado vs. Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $4,800
DraftKings = $4,900

Machado’s low BABIP in 2017 indicated he would be in for a much better season average-wise this year and he hasn’t disappointed, hitting .366 so far. His power numbers certainly haven’t suffered at the expense of his higher average, recording nine home runs and nine doubles through 29 games. He’s normally good against left-handed pitchers and is crushing them for a 209 wRC+ this season as well.

Jose Peraza vs. Wade Miley, Milwaukee Brewers
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,700

Peraza and his .259 batting average last year were a major disappointment, but he’s batting .296 so far this season. His .317 BABIP isn’t overly high, but he’s making better contact with a 27.1% hard-hit rate, which is six percent higher than last year. The Reds are a great stacking opportunity against Miley on Wednesday, Peraza included.

Others to consider: Francisco Lindor and Jean Segura

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/2/18

J.D. Martinez vs. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $4,500
DraftKings = $5,300

Martinez hasn’t been able to keep up with the ridiculous home run pace that he was on with the Diamondbacks last year, but his .955 OPS this season would actually be the second-highest mark of his career. He’s always someone you want to target against left-handed pitchers after he finished with a .531 wOBA against them last year. Duffy is really tough against lefties, but righties had much better success against him last year with a .329 wOBA.

Mitch Haniger vs. Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $4,900

Haniger played only 96 games last year but still managed to hit 16 home runs. He’s off to an even better power start this year, slugging 10 home runs and posting a 1.075 OPS through 28 games. He has been destroying lefties, recording a .443 wOBA against them this year. Anderson will be making his first start of the season for the Athletics after allowing a .351 wOBA to righties last year, making Haniger someone to consider for your entry.

Eddie Rosario vs. Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,500

Rosario is only hitting .242 this year in large part due to his .275 BABIP that is almost 50 points lower than his career average. He’s hitting the ball well with a 35.1% hard-hit rate, so expect his batting average to improve as the season wears on. After recording a .377 wOBA against righties last year, he’s a viable cost-effective option against the struggling Stroman on Wednesday.

Others to consider: Nelson Cruz and Curtis Granderson

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

Tuesday could be a big night for offense in baseball as many teams will be sending a member of the back end of their rotation to the mound. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Kenta Maeda vs. Miami Marlins
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $9,100
DraftKings = $9,300

Maeda is off to a strange start. His ERA sits at 3.77 despite having a 1.06 FIP. He has a crazy high 1.74 WHIP but has accompanied that with an equally stunning 15.1 K/9. For his career, he has a 1.17 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. He’s not going to keep up this strikeout pace, but his opponents .513 BABIP obviously won’t hold up either. Tuesday brings a great matchup against the Marlins who are in the bottom-five in baseball in runs scored, batting average and slugging percentage. Maeda isn’t overly expensive either, making him a pitcher to build your team around.

Zach Davis vs. Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Kauffman Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,000

Davies finished with a respectable 3.90 ERA in 2017 despite having a career-low 5.8 K/9. A lot of his success can be attributed to his career-low 28.8% hard-hit rate. He’s off to an inconsistent start this season, to say the least, through four starts. In two starts against the Cardinals and Mets, he allowed 11 earned runs in 10 innings. In his other to starts, he allowed one earned run in 12.1 innings against the Cubs and Reds. He’s a bit of a risky play, but the good news is that he gets to face a Royals lineup that has scored the fewest runs in baseball this season. His strikeout upside isn’t great, but he’s still a tournament play option.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Josh Bell vs. Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – PNC Park
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $3,500

Bell is off to a slow start in the power department, slugging just one home run so far this season. His ISO is only .120, but don’t expect it to stay that low for too much longer considering his career mark of .188. After posting a .343 wOBA against right-handers last year, he gets to face Zimmermann on Tuesday, who lefties crushed for a .375 wOBA in 2017.

Brandon Belt vs. Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,700

Last year was a season to forget for Belt, who hit .241 and was limited to 104 games due to injury. He had only a .284 BABIP compared to his career mark of .334 and he still had a hard-hit rate of 38.4%, so he was a candidate to improve this season as long as he can stay healthy. He’s been just that so far and is off to a fantastic start, batting .290 with five home runs and a .392 OBP. Not only does he have a career 132 wRC+ against righties, but he has had excellent success against Roark, hitting 5-for-12 with a home run and three walks against him in his career.

Others to consider: Justin Smoak (first base) and Yasmani Grandal (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Jed Lowrie vs. Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,500

Lowrie may be off to one of the most surprising starts in baseball this season, tied for the second-most RBI (23) in the league. He’s batting a lofty .357, but a lot of that has to do with his .403 BABIP, which is over one hundred points higher than his career mark. A switch-hitter, he has a career .340 wOBA against lefties, so look to ride his hot streak again Tuesday.

Joey Wendle vs. Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,100

Wendle is not a big home run hitter, but he did have a career .288 batting average in 641 games in the minors. He’s getting a chance to play every day for the rebuilding Rays and is off to a hot start, hitting .304 with a .385 OBP. His 40.5% hard-hit rate is probably unsustainable, so he may experience some regression as the league gets more familiar with how to pitch to him. Cobb has a horrible 15.43 ERA and 3.14 WHIP through his first two starts, so Wendle might be able to provide value.

Others to consider: DJ LeMahieu and Howie Kendrick

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Nolan Arenado vs. Eric Lauer, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $5,100
DraftKings = $5,400

Arenando has been on fire since returning from his suspension, going 9-for-16 with three home runs and six RBI in four games. This will be left-hander Lauer’s first appearance in the majors, which is no easy task at Coors Field. Arenado had a 220 wRC+ against lefties last year, so don’t be surprised if he greets Lauer rudely Tuesday.

Matt Chapman vs. Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $4,100

Chapman has slowed down a bit after his torrid start, but he still has a hit in four of his last five games. He’s shown a significant improvement in his pitch selection in the early going, increasing his walk rate and decreasing his strikeout rate from last year. Hamels held lefties to a sparkling .215 wOBA last year, but righties fared much better at .324. This could be a good game to stack Athletic righties, Chapman included.

Others to consider: Adrian Beltre and Daniel Robertson

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Manny Machado vs. Jake Faria, Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $5,200

Machado is looking to put his .259 batting average from last year firmly in the rearview mirror, hitting .360 out of the gates this season. His power numbers haven’t suffered either with eight home runs and seven doubles through 23 games. Most of his struggles came on the road last season, hitting .229 compared to .288 at home. Faria doesn’t exactly have overpowering stuff, so Machado could keep things rolling in this game.

Marcus Semien vs. Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $3,700

Semien has been hitting the ball with authority so far this season, posting a 37.3% hard-hit rate compared to his 29.1% career mark. He has shown he can hit for power when healthy, clubbing 27 home runs in 159 games in 2016. Right-handed pitchers have given him trouble with a career .299 wOBA, but he’s recorded a .344 wOBA against lefties. He’s yet another Athletics right-handed hitter with upside Tuesday.

Others to consider: Trea Turner and Adeiny Hechavarria

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Khris Davis vs. Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $4,700

Davis rounds out the list of righties you may want to stack against Hamels. Not only is Davis off to a great start with six home runs and 21 RBI, but he has owned Hamels in his career, hitting three home runs and drawing five walks in 18 plate appearances.

Denard Span vs. Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,300

Span is another player on the list for most unlikely start, driving in 17 runs in 18 games. Last year he had only 43 RBI in 129 games for the Giants. He has mostly batted leadoff this season, with the extra at-bats giving him a boost in DFS. He’s not going to keep up with this RBI pace, but he’s a viable option to consider Tuesday against the struggling Cobb.

Matt Kemp vs. Dillon Peters, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $3,600

Kemp hasn’t disappointed so far in his second stint with the Dodgers, batting .321 with three home runs. He is a prime regression candidate though with his .417 BABIP and 46.2% hard-hit rate both well above his career marks. He does mash lefties with a career 147 wRC+ and faces a struggling one in Peters on Tuesday. Based on his cheap price, Kemp could provide significant value in this game, especially on FanDuel.

Others to consider: J.D. Martinez and Mallex Smith

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/19/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/19/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

There are only nine games in baseball Thursday and they are spread out throughout the day, leaving limited choices for both slates in DFS.  Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/19/18

Zack Greinke vs. San Francisco Giants
Stadium – Chase Field
FanDuel = $8,900
DraftKings = $10,600

Greinke’s ERA is ugly at 5.29 through his first three starts, but his 4.05 FIP indicates he has not pitched that poorly. He’s done a nice job keeping runners off base with a 1.18 WHIP, but he’s been done in by four home runs. He’s shown great control other than that, recording 21 strikeouts and allowing just one walk. A better pitcher at home, Greinke had a 2.87 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at Chase Field last year compared to a 3.65 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road. The Giants have scored the fewest runs in baseball this year, making Greinke an excellent option for your entry.

Chase Anderson vs. Miami Marlins
Stadium – Miller Park
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $9,500

Anderson has a sparkling 2.82 ERA through four starts in large part because he has allowed just a 0.99 WHIP. His overall numbers indicate he has been lucky though with a 5.17 FIP and opponents posting just a .193 BABIP. To his credit, he has induced a lot of soft contact with a 26.2% hard-hit rate. He’s probably a regression candidate in season-long fantasy, but he projects to have a favorable matchup Thursday against a Marlins team that is tied for the seventh-fewest runs scored in baseball. Anderson was also excellent at home last year, posting a sparkling 2.51 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/19/18

Jose Martinez vs. Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
Stadium – Wrigley Field
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $3,600

Martinez is dealing with a couple of nagging injuries right now, but he should be helped by the rainout that occurred in this series Wednesday. He’s been extremely productive so far this season, batting .339 with three home runs and 15 RBI. His .333 BABIP is not crazy high and his 31.5% hard-hit rate is actually down from his career mark of 36.6%, so he may be able to continue to hit for a high average this season. He destroys left-handed pitching, finishing with the highest wRC+ (240) against them in all of baseball last season.

Yuli Gurriel vs. Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,300

Gurriel has been limited to just six games this season due to suspension and injury. He was a key part of the Astros success last year, batting .299 with 18 home runs and 43 doubles. He’ll face the left-handed Gonzales on Thursday who has struggled to get out righties in his career, allowing a .392 wOBA against them compared to .321 against lefties.

Others to consider: Justin Smoak (first base) and Yadier Molina (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/19/18

Ian Kinsler vs. Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $4,100

Kinsler hit just .236 with the Tigers last season, but a lot of that had to do with his abnormally low .244 BABIP. He’s been limited to just five games this season due to injury, but it is encouraging that he has at least one hit in four of those games, two of which were multi-hit performances. Despite his struggles last year, Kinsler still had a .374 wOBA against left-handers, making him an excellent option to consider against Rodriguez on Thursday.

Brock Holt vs. Nick Tropeano, Los Angeles Angels
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = $3,000

Holt has been filling in at shortstop with Xander Bogaerts (ankle) on the DL and is 5-for-13 with one home run in his last three games. He doesn’t provide much power with only 14 career home runs, but he doesn’t strike out much either with an 18.5% strikeout rate. Tropeano has allowed a .348 wOBA in his career against lefties, making Holt a cheap option with upside in tournament play.

Others to consider: Jose Altuve and Asdrubal Cabrera

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/19/18

Rafael Devers vs. Nick Tropeano, Los Angeles Angels
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $3,700

Devers is off to a great start this year, batting .273 with three home runs and 15 RBI. He’s hitting the ball well with a 44% hard-hit rate after posting a 34.5% hard-hit rate in 58 games last year. The Red Sox have one of the most potent lineups in baseball after the addition of J.D. Martinez, which should leave Devers with plenty of opportunities to provide counting stats. With Tropeano’s struggles against left-handed hitters already detailed, Devers is another Red Sox lefty you might want to deploy Thursday.

Jeimer Candelario vs. Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $3,400

Candelario continues to swing a hot bat for the Tigers, hitting 8-for-24 with three doubles and two home runs in his last six games. The Tigers lineup isn’t great as they work their way through a rebuild, but Candelario has a favorable spot in the order hitting second in front of Miguel Cabrera. Cobb will be making just his second start of the season after signing with the Orioles during spring training and should have better results than when he was pounded by the Red Sox in his first outing, but Candelario is still a viable option at this price.

Others to consider: Ryan Flaherty and Miguel Andujar

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/19/18

Manny Machado vs. Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $4,900

The Orioles lineup has been terrible this year, scoring the sixth-fewest runs in baseball. It certainly hasn’t been Machado’s fault, who is hitting .319 with three home runs and six doubles through 18 games. Thursday brings a great matchup against Zimmermann who certainly does not have overpowering stuff, recording a K/9 of 5.8 or lower in both of the last two seasons.

Jedd Gyorko vs. Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
Stadium – Wrigley Field
FanDuel = $2,500
DraftKings = $2,900

Gyorko has spent the bulk of the season on the DL with a hamstring injury and returns to find himself likely in a utility role for the Cardinals. Thursday seems like a prime spot to get his bat in the lineup though against Lester since Gyorko has a career .344 wOBA against lefties. He has also owned Lester, batting .316 with two home runs in 21 plate appearances against him. Of note, Gyorko is listed at shortstop on FanDuel, but he is only eligible at third base on DraftKings.

Others to consider: Carlos Correa and Zack Cozart

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/19/18

Justin Upton vs. Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $4,200
DraftKings = $4,500

The Angels have been one of the most productive lineups in baseball, tied for the second-most runs scored behind only the Red Sox. Upton has been no exception, batting .278 with four home runs. His strikeout rate is down as well at 20.5% compared to his career mark of 24.9%. He has a career .380 wOBA against left-handed pitching, making him a strong option to consider against Rodriguez.

Adam Jones vs. Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $4,200

Stacking Orioles hitters Thursday is a great idea against the struggling Zimmermann. Jones is off to a terrible start with just a .227 average, but he has hit well against Zimmermann in his career, posting a .273 average with three home runs in 23 plate appearances. This might be just the matchup he needs to bust out of his slump.

Adam Frazier vs. Jake Arrieta, Philadelphia Phillies
Stadium – Citizens Bank Park
FanDuel = $2,100
DraftKings = $3,100

Frazier should see increased playing time with Josh Harrison (hand) currently on the DL. He hit leadoff against the Rockies on Wednesday, finishing 3-for-5 with two runs scored. He could be in that role again Thursday against Arrieta since Frazier is a much better hitter against righties than lefties. Although he doesn’t provide power upside, he can be valuable at this price, especially if he hits leadoff again.

Others to consider: Mike Trout and Steve Pearce

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/6/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/6/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

This will be an usually quiet Friday in the majors with only nine games on the schedule, which particularly hurts in terms of options at starting pitcher in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/6/18

Lance McCullers Jr. vs. San Diego Padres
Stadium – Minute Maid Park
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $12,300

McCullers’ overall numbers don’t look great on the surface, finishing with a 4.25 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 2017. However, his FIP was 3.10 and he was a bit unlucky with opposing batters posting a .333 BABIP. He had a 10 K/9 and a 0.6 HR/9, making him a candidate for significant improvement in 2018. McCullers had a brief scare when he was hit by a comebacker in his first start of the season against the Rangers, but stayed in the game, finishing with 10 strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings. The Padres lineup isn’t great, to begin with, but it’s even thinner right now with Wil Myers (elbow) on the DL. McCullers could be in line for another strong performance Friday as a result.

Luis Castillo vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – PNC Park
FanDuel = $7,100
DraftKings = $8,700

Castillo had a great start to his career during his brief time in the majors last year, posting a 3.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 in 89 1/3 innings. He showed excellent control for a young power pitcher, allowing just 1.8 BB/9. He induced a lot of grounders as well with a 58.8% ground-ball rate. Castillo had to face the Nationals in his first start of the season, who have one of the best lineups in the league. He allowed six earned runs in five innings, but he did still record six strikeouts. Friday brings an easier opponent in the Pirates, leaving Castillo as a tournament play option at this price.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/6/18

Freddie Freeman vs. German Marquez, Colorado Rockies
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $5,700

Freeman has started off about as well as anyone so far this season, batting .421 with two home runs and nine RBI. He has a crazy .621 OBP and has only struck out three times. He’ll face the righty Marquez on Friday, which should benefit him greatly since he had a ridiculous .422 wOBA against righties in 2017.

Kendrys Morales vs. Matt Moore, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,400
DraftKings = $2,900

Morales is only 2-for-14 to start the season and has yet to record an extra-base hit. Friday might be the day his fortunes change though against Moore and the Rangers. A switch-hitter, Morales is much better from the right side of the plate, posting a 165 wRC+ in 2017 compared to a 77 wRC+ from the left side. Moore struggled with a 1.53 WHIP last year and doesn’t have overpowering stuff, making Morales an option to consider at this cheap price.

Others to consider: Justin Smoak (first base) and Brian McCann (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/6/18

Scooter Gennett vs. Trevor Williams, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – PNC Park
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,500

Gennett had the best season of his career in 2017, hitting .295 with 27 home runs and 97 RBI. His previous career-highs were 14 home runs and 56 RBI, so the leap that he made was significant, to say the least. He’s not off to a hot start with his counting stats this year, but he is batting .429 in the early goings. Right-handed pitching provided little troubles for Gennett as he posting a .388 wOBA against them last year compared to just .296 against lefties. Based on those extreme splits, he might be worth taking a chance on in tournament play Friday.

Kike Hernandez vs. Derek Holland, San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $3,500

The injury to Justin Turner (wrist) has opened up some playing time for Hernandez, but he is only hitting .188 so far this season. He has dominated left-handed pitching though, posting a .390 wOBA against them in 2017. He’ll face the lefty Holland for the second time of the season on Friday after going 1-for-3 with a double and an RBI in their first matchup. Of note, Hernandez is only listed at second base on FanDuel as he is listed as an outfielder on DraftKings.

Others to consider: Joe Panik and Jed Lowrie

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/6/18

Josh Donaldson vs. Matt Moore, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $4,800

Donaldson has battled through a dead arm to start the season, but it has really only limited him in the field. He has two home runs and a double so far to go along with a .400 OBP. He owned lefties last year, finishing with a 171 wRC+. In limited plate appearances against Moore in his career, Donaldson is also 3-for-8 with a home run, one double and one walk. Expect him to give Moore troubles again Friday.

Luis Valbuena vs. Daniel Gossett, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $2,500
DraftKings = $3,000

Valbuena is off to a terrible start this season, hitting .167  with just two extra-base hits. The good news is that he is getting plenty of playing time with Ian Kinsler (groin) on the DL, which moved Zack Cozart from third to second base. Gossett struggled with a 6.11 ERA and 1.61 WHIP last year while also recording just 7.1 K/9. Valbuena is a much better hitter against righties, posting a .324 wOBA against them in 2017 compared to just .194 against lefties.

Others to consider: Nolan Arenado and Ryan Flaherty

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/6/18

Carlos Correa vs. Luis Perdomo, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Minute Maid Park
FanDuel = $4,400
DraftKings = $5,000

Correa suffered a minor toe injury and sat out Wednesday, but he should return Friday after receiving two days of rest. He was hot before the injury, batting .474 with two home runs and eight RBI. Although he hits lefties extremely well, righties don’t really give him problems either, finishing with a .380 wOBA against them in 2017. The right-hander Perdomo had a WHIP of at least 1.51 in both of the last two seasons and his K/9 did not exceed 6.5 in either year, which doesn’t exactly make him an imposing force for Correa to face.

Manny Machado vs. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees
Stadium – Yankee Stadium
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,200

Machado has yet to drive in a run and is hitting only .222 this season, so he doesn’t exactly come into Friday swinging the bat well. He’s had good numbers against Sabathia in his career though, batting .316 with three home runs and six doubles in 57 career at-bats. Sabathia is still a serviceable starting pitcher, but he’s not nearly as overpowering as he was earlier in his career. This might be just the matchup that Machado needs to get going.

Others to consider: Addison Russell Andrelton Simmons

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/6/18

Charlie Blackmon vs. Brandon McCarthy, Atlanta Braves
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $5,300
DraftKings = $5,800

Blackmon has yet to play a single game in the friendly confines of Coors Field, yet he is still batting .345 with four home runs. He finally returns home Friday, a place where he batted .391 and hit 24 of his 37 home runs last season. He also destroyed righties last year with a 145 wRC+, so don’t hesitate to pay up to get him into your lineup against McCarthy on Friday.

Josh Reddick vs. Luis Perdomo, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Minute Maid Park
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,000

Reddick was hitless in his first two games of 2018 but has gone 6-for-10 with two home runs in three games since. The Astros lineup is loaded with excellent right-handed hitters and Reddick provides an important compliment from the left-hand side, posting a wOBA of at least .356 against righties in each of the last four seasons. He has an excellent chance to extend his recent hot streak Friday.

Nomar Mazara vs. Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = $3,400

Mazara is swinging a hot bat right now, recording at least two hits in four of his last six games. He batted a disappointing .253 in 2017, but a lot of that was because he hit only .228 against lefties. Most of his power came against right-handers as well, hitting 19 of his 20 home runs against them. At this cheap price, he’s worth taking a chance on in tournament play against a righty in Estrada who doesn’t have overpowering stuff.

Others to consider: Mike Trout and Preston Tucker

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Third Base

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Third Base

Third base is loaded in fantasy baseball again this season with many of the premier players in the league manning the position. Several of the elite options are young as well, providing even more value if you play in a keeper or dynasty league. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some third basemen who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Third Base

Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

Arenado is one of the safest first-round picks in fantasy. He enters this season at only 26 years old but has hit at least 37 home runs to go along with at least 130 RBI and 97 runs scored in three straight seasons. His batting average and OBP have increased each of the last three years as well, topping out at .309 and .373, respectively, in 2017. He certainly benefits from playing in Coors field, batting .336 with 18 home and 76 RBI in 78 home games last year. While his batting average was lower on the road, he did still manage to slug 18 home runs last year away from Coors field. Arenado is not only the best option at third base, but he is arguably a top-five player in fantasy.

Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

Bryant was on his way to pushing Arenado for the best third baseman in fantasy after a monster 2016 season that saw him hit .292 with 39 home runs, 102 RBI and 121 runs scored. He took a step backward in 2017 though, hitting .295 with 29 home runs, 73 RBI, and 111 runs scored. The main reason for his decline in RBI was because he moved up in the batting order. In 2016, he batted third in 62 games and recorded 50 RBI. He hit second in 83 games, providing only 45 RBI. Bryant batted second in 110 games in 2017, finishing with just 59 RBI in those contests. With Bryant expected to bat second again this season, it will be difficult for him to reach his 2016 RBI total again. He’s still an elite talent though who hits for average and power, making him worthy of a late first-round, early second-round pick depending on the size of your league.

Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

Machado was expected to be one of the best players in fantasy in 2017 after batting at least .286 with at least 35 home runs, 86 RBI and 102 runs in back-to-back seasons. While his powers numbers were there last year with 33 home runs and 95 RBI, he batted just .259. Much of that can be attributed to a horrid first half where he hit just .230 in large part because of a .230 BABIP. He has a career .301 BABIP, so it’s no surprise that he improved to a .290 BABIP in the second half of the season. The result was a .290 average over that same stretch. He should see a significant improvement in batting average this season and could end up pushing Bryant for being the second-best fantasy option at third base. He is also moving to shortstop, which will give him a boost in value when he gains that added eligibility.

 

Overvalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Third Base

Mike Moustakas, Free Agent

Moustakas finally had his breakout season in 2017, hitting 38 home runs to go along with a .272 average. He finished with just 85 RBI and 75 runs scored though as 27 of his home runs were of the solo variety. He did appear to take a more aggressive approach at the plate, seeing only 3.78 pitchers per plate appearance, the second fewest of his career. Also, he struck out swinging on 96.8% of his strikeouts, by far the highest percentage of his career. He has yet to sign with a team, but it’s going to be hard for him to match his homer total from last season wherever he signs considering he had never hit more than 22 home runs in a season previously. His current ADP in the NFBC is too high at 118.30. Fellow third basemen Kyle Seager (137.64) and Adrian Beltre (158.42) could provide very similar numbers and are still available later in most drafts.

Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks

Lamb set career-highs last year with 30 home runs, 105 RBI, and 89 runs scored. His average was still poor though at just .248, the second straight season he hit below .250. Lamb tends to get off to a hot start before cooling off in the second half. He has batted .284 for his career in the first half of the season but has followed it up with a career average of just .220 in the second half. Home runs are becoming easier to find in fantasy, making Lamb less valuable than he may have been previously. There are no signs that he is going to improve his batting average this year, which should limit his overall value. His current ADP of 118.35 is right behind Moustakas, which is hard to justify based on his numbers.

Undervalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Third Base

Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers

Injuries plagued Beltre in 2017, limiting him to 94 games. He was excellent when he was on the diamond, batting .312 with 17 home runs, 71 RBI, and a .383 OBP. Although he will turn 39 this year, injuries had not been a recent problem with Beltre playing at least 143 games in each of the previous five seasons. A career .287 hitter, Beltre had also hit at least 28 home runs in five of his last seven seasons entering 2017. With his consistent power and a high batting average now being at a premium in fantasy, Beltre should be going higher than his current ADP of 158.42. Don’t sleep on him in your league.

Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics

Chapman got his first taste of the majors in 2017, batting .234 with 14 home runs and 40 RBI in 84 games. He only batted .244 for his career in the minors, so don’t expect to see any significant improvement from him in that area this year. However, he provides plenty of power, slugging .518 in the minors. He’ll strike out a lot, but he did have a walk percentage of at least 10.6% in each of his stops in the minors since 2015. His current ADP is only 284.97, which is 25th amongst players eligible at third base. He could provide 25 home runs and 80 RBI in a full season, leaving him as someone with value even with his poor average that late in a draft.

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Advanced stats are important in any sport, but they have especially changed the way we look at baseball. One important advanced stat to consider when drafting your fantasy baseball squad is batting average on balls in play, also known a BABIP.

As defined by BaseballReference.com, BABIP, “measures what happens when the player puts the ball in play on the field.” The formula to calculate BABIP is (H-HR)/ (AB – SO – HR + SF).

In 2017, the league average batting average was .255. Historically, the league average BABIP is usually right around .300. Now, that doesn’t mean just because a hitter has a BABIP above or below .300 that they are in line for a correction in 2018. You want to compare their BABIP more with their career marks and also consider their skill sets. For example, a fast runner who hits a lot of ground balls could have a high BABIP simply because they are able to leg out base hits that other runners with normal speed would not be able to.

It is also important to consider the type of contact that a player is making, whether they hit a lot of fly balls or line drives. A player who hits more hard line drives can have a high BABIP because the fielders could have a more difficult time reaching the ball to record an out. A player who hits a lot of weak fly balls is going to have a lower BABIP because they aren’t leaving themselves with a great opportunity to reach base.

All of that being said, let’s take a look at a few players who had an abnormally high or low BABIP last season and discuss how to project their batting averages for this season.

 

Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Garcia not only hit a career-high .330 last season, but it left him with the third-highest batting averaging in the league behind Jose Altuve and Charlie Blackmon. That’s some pretty impressive company. However, Garcia is a career .277 hitter, which is an immediate red flag.

A closer look at Garcia’s numbers shows he had a .392 BABIP last year, which was the highest in baseball. That screams candidate for regression, especially when you consider his career BABIP is just .340. Garcia even struck out less last year with a 19.8% strikeout percentage, which is almost three percent lower than his career average. His line drive percentage was 24%, which was spot on with his career mark.

He is still a talented young player who could have a valuable fantasy season, but make sure you aren’t drafting him with the expectation that he will hit for that high of an average again this year.

Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Zimmerman has played in over 1,500 career games, which gives us an example sample size to work off of. After dealing with injuries the last few seasons, Zimmerman was able to largely stay healthy in 2017 and played in 144 games. He finished with a career-high 36 home runs and recorded at least 100 RBI for the third time in his career. He had a sparkling .303 batting average, which was especially high considering he hasn’t batted above .280 since 2012.

However, a lot of his success can be attributed to his performance in the first half of the season when he batted .345. It’s no coincidence that he had an extremely high BABIP of .364 during that same time frame. His career BABIP is .311, so it made much more sense that he had a BABIP of .306 during the second half of the season. While the decline in BABIP, Zimmerman’s batting average was just .269 in the second half.

Health is always a major concern if you are drafting Zimmerman, but remember that his excessively high BABIP in the first half led to an inflated batting average for the season overall.

Zack Cozart, Los Angeles Angels

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Cozart is the only player on this list to change teams this winter as he signed with the Angeles after playing his entire career with the Cincinnati Reds. Cozart had the best season of his career in 2017, hitting .297 with 24 home runs, 63 RBI and 80 runs scored. He was able to cash that in for a three-year, $38 million contract. With how slow the market has moved this winter, that was a significant deal.

Another alarm should go off with Cozart though as he is only a career .254 hitter. He did most of his damage in the first half, batting .316 with a .358 BABIP. To put that into perspective, his career BABIP is only .280. He experienced a significant regression in the second half, batting just .272 with a .252 BABIP.

Cozart did drastically improve his walk percentage to 12.2% last season, but his 26% line drive percentage was actually two percent lower than both of the previous two seasons. Buyer beware if you are drafting him based on his batting average last season.

Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Betts was one of the hottest names in fantasy baseball heading into last year after hitting .318 with 31 home runs, 113 RBI, 122 runs scored and 26 steals in 2016. Even though the Red Sox offense as a whole took a step backward in 2017, Betts still had great counting stats with 24 home runs, 102 RBI, 101 runs scored and 26 stolen bases.

Betts couldn’t completely deliver on his lofty fantasy expectations though because he batted only .264 for the season. His strikeout percentage, groundball to fly ball ratio and line drive percentage were all almost right on par with his career averages. The big difference is he had only a .268 BABIP last year after never finishing with one below .310 in his career. It was low throughout the season, showing very little improvement in the second half.

Betts has an extremely high upside in fantasy and could have just had one of those “unlucky” seasons in terms of his BABIP considering his career numbers. Expect improvement in the batting average department from him this year.

Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Machado is also one of the most coveted offense players in fantasy. Not only has he developed into a premier power hitter, but he had hit at least .278 in four straight seasons leading into 2017. Although he stole 20 bases in 2015, he has only stolen nine total bases in two seasons since.

Machado saw a significant decline in his batting average in 2017, finishing the season hitting just .259. Much of that can be attributed to a horrid first half where he batted just .230 in large part due to his .230 BABIP. He has a career .301 BABIP, so it’s no surprise that he improved to a .290 BABIP in the second half of the season. He batted .290 over that same stretch.

Machado will be dealing with a position change this year, moving from third base to his natural position at shortstop. However, one constant that should return this year with a normal BABIP is his high batting average.

Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Odor has become one of the premier power-hitting second basemen in baseball, slugging at least 30 home runs in back-to-back seasons. He does not do a great job getting on base though with only a 4.2% walk percentage. He has logged 1,212 at-bats in the last two seasons but has only walked 51 times. His swinging strikes percentage has increased in each season of his career, topping out at 20.8% in 2017.

While he doesn’t walk much, Odor had a batting average of at least .259 in each of his first three seasons. He struggled mightily in that department last year, batting just .204. Much of that can be attributed to his .224 BABIP, which was almost 60 points lower than any previous season of his career. His inability to get on base limits his fantasy value, but it’s highly unlikely that he will hit just over .200 again this season.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks for August 21, 2017

by Austyn Varney 0 Comments

*Austyn Varney*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks – Monday, August 21, 2017

*STARTING PITCHERS*

Alex Wood - Los Angeles Dodgers - MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks

Alex Wood @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Park – PNC Park
Opp implied total – 3.72

The truth of the matter is that we don’t have a lot of pitching on this slate. With just 8 games on the books, it’s somewhat expected. We do at least have a guy in Alex Wood that should have a solid game. The Pirates are projected for under 3 runs and can strikeout a good amount. We know how good Wood is, or how good he can be I should say. So far on the season, he’s posted an elite .249 combined wOBA and has struck out over 9 batters per 9 innings. He has controlled both sides of the plate quite nicely and has also dropped his HR issue from past years. As for the Pirates, they are as average as you can get. Against lefties, they’ve ranked 17th in baseball with a .316 wOBA. They K 20% of the time and are nothing to be afraid of in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Alex Wood is the top play by a mile and the ownership will reflect that. Don’t get cute in cash games.

Zach Davies @ San Francisco Giants
Park – AT&T Park
Vegas O/U – 3.91

Like I said, pitching is ugly. Whenever Zach Davies is the 2nd best option on a slate, my previous comment goes unsaid. He is at least facing off with the worst team in baseball against righties. The Giants have been dead last against righties with a .291 wOBA and have been only worse at home in the best pitchers park in the league. They do have some big-name bats, but they kind of stink. Buster Posey isn’t very good against righties and neither is Hunter Pence. the rest of the order is full of weak bats. While they don’t strike out much, they also don’t have the power to hit one out. Davies isn’t a great pitcher by any means, but he’s decent. He’s sported a .326 wOBA and has backed it up with a 6.5 K/9 and 27% hard contact rate. The park is optimal and I think Davies is safer than any other SP2 you will find.

*OFFENSIVE STACKS*

Manny Machado - Baltimore Orioles - MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks - Lineuplab
Baltimore Orioles Vs Chris Smith (Athletics)
Park – Camden Yards
Implied Total – 5.83

While we don’t have a bunch of big pitchers on the slate, we also don’t have any gas cans that you can target with no caution. Chris Smith is the worst pitcher on the slate and he’ll be pitching in Camden Yards. He first pitched in 2006, which should actually tell you a lot. He’s 36 years old and is not going to find his way now. Through his 5 random years between 2006 and now, he’s allowed a .340 wOBA to both lefties and righties. He’s used to pitching in the Oakland Coliseum (top 5 pitcher park) and will have a ton of trouble moving to a top 5 hitting ballpark. Manny Machado is the top option and I wouldn’t consider making a stack without him. Schoop and Adam Jones are next as supreme cash game options. The rest of the order is filled with power and you can really go anywhere you want. Mancini and Trumbo are my favorites and should only be about 10-15% owned.

Main Stack – Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini
Sneaky Stack – Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Tim Beckham, Chris Davis

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Robert Gsellman (Mets)
Park – Citi Field
Implied Total – 4.75

Honestly, I don’t love any offense after the Orioles. Gsellman is a talented pitcher that hasn’t found his footing in quite some time. Ths Diamondbacks team is good against righties and they hold a 4.75 implied total. On the season, Gsellman has been absolutely atrocious. He’s posted a .365 combined wOBA and has given up 14 homers in just 70 innings. He’s walking nearly 4 batters per 9 innings and is striking out just 6. All in all, Gsellman is nowhere near where he needs to be. We know how lethal this offense can be and with the addition of J.D. Martinez, they have an insane 4-man cash game stack. Lamb, Goldy, Peralta, and Pollock are elite and they are the easy cash game stack. If you want to go crazy, I would look for a power bat towards the bottom of the lineup that will come in under 10%. Chris Herrmann will be that guy for me.

Main Stack – Jake Lamb, David Peralta, A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt
Sneaky Stack – Jake Lamb, David Peralta, J.D. Martinez, Chris Herrmann