We have four teams on a bye during Week 6 and one game in London that has an early start time Sunday, leaving us with fewer options than normal for the main DFS slate. With that being said, there are still some very intriguing quarterbacks to discuss.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 – Quarterbacks
Believe it or not, we are already a quarter of the way through the NFL season. The quarterback landscape is certainly very different since we started things off four weeks ago, which has caused significant ramifications across DFS. Let’s break things down for Week 5 and highlight some of the best players at the position to consider, as well as a couple to avoid.
Read MoreNFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments
*Chris Tierney – cstcst*
NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments
If you’re playing DFS this weekend don’t get fancy. Who is going to win the game and how? Answer these questions for yourself prior to constructing anything from a lineup perspective. Making more than one lineup? Alter who will win and how a bit and construct again, all while keeping a similar core lineup.
As Demarcus Robinson and Josh Hill demonstrated last weekend, roughly one obscure player POPS in each playoff game. It will likely take having one of these guys on your squad to take down a large GPP. Rostering players such as these are a true dart throw and the risk often outweighs the reward. My dart throws this week are Vance McDonald and Corey Davis. Both guys can make the big play and both have decent matchups. The Jags have a great defensive backfield and are also adept at rushing the passer. Quick hitting plays to the TE and RB are two ways to attach a defense like the Jaguars. Vance McDonald made some big plays for the 49ers last season and has seen his role expand down the stretch after being injured for much of the season. Corey Davis’s role continues to expand in the Titans passing game. He had a serviceable game last weekend and faces another spotty secondary this week in a game where his offense will likely have to throw the football.
Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
Atlanta (-3.5, 41) at Philadelphia
On paper, this sure looks like a 26-13 or thereabouts Falcons win. They are a veteran-led group with an improving defense who is accustomed to the pressures of the playoffs. Paper doesn’t mean much come kickoff. This will be an interesting game and it will be roaring in Philly. There are some interesting options here but this game isn’t where the majority of my focus will be this weekend.
DFS Chalk: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Zack Ertz, Devonta Freeman
DFS Value: Nick Foles, Nelson Agholor, Tevin Coleman, Mohamed Sanu, Jay Ajayi
Tennessee at New England (-14, 48)
This game has the opportunity to shoot out. Will the real New England defense please stand up? Statistically, they’ve been one of the worst units in the NFL this season but they’ve bowed their backs when it mattered most, allowing them to take the Division and home-field advantage yet again. Tennessee’s pass defense has been a sieve which shines a light upon his Greatness and his favorite Tight End. I think New England wins here, but I think it will be more difficult than many expect. The Titans gained some confidence last weekend and I expect their offense to have some success. I think there are a bunch of players worth rostering in this game. Remember, Belichick likes to neutralize one aspect of his opponent’s offense. That has to be the Tennessee running-game right? #gametheory – Tennessee passing attack is interesting to me in GPP situations. The return of Hogan should lighten the targets to Cooks here.
DFS Chalk: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, Delanie Walker, Derrick Henry
DFS Value: Corey Davis, Eric Decker, James White, Rex Burkhead, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Rishard Matthews
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-7, 41)
Sunday should be the fun day for this weekends slate and kicks off with a very interesting matchup in Pittsburgh. If Ryan Shazier were healthy, I’d think this was a slam dunk Steelers victory. As we all now, he sadly is not (keep on getting well Ryan!), and the Steelers run defense has not looked the same. They’ll copy the Bills blueprint and load the box with eight men. Will Nathan Hackett trust Blake Bortles here? Will they allow him to attack this Steelers defense down the field with Lee, Hurns and Westbrook? That is likely their plan and without something like it, they’ll be cleaning out their lockers early next week. The Steelers offense has the tough chore of the Jaguars defense. The Jags will slow the Steelers down some here, but the Jags offense has to apply pressure to this Steelers team. An upset here wouldn’t shock me but I think this is perhaps the most interesting matchup of the playoffs thus far and will be telling about the Steelers Championship hopes.
DFS Chalk: Big Ben, LeVeon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster
DFS Value: Vance McDonald, Dede Westbrook, Mercedes Lewis, Marqise Lee
New Orleans at Minnesota (-4.5, 46.5)
Like our Carolina | New Orleans call last week, this is the one with the best opportunity to shoot out and could be a thrilling final game to the weekend. The Vikings are legit, but so are the Saints. Both of these teams are formidable on both sides of the ball and both teams have offensive players who can score from anywhere on the field. I prefer Minnesota here but as anyone who follows the NFL knows, the Saints offense is capable of moving 85 yards in two or three plays at any time.
DFS Chalk: Case Keenum, Adam Thielen, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara
DFS Value: Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Kyle Rudolph, Ted Ginn, Brandon Coleman, Josh Hill
Top GPP Stacks:
1a: Case Keenum, Jerick Mckinnon, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas
2a: Tom Brady, James White, Rob Gronkowski, Corey Davis
NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football
*Chris Tierney – cstcst*
NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football
Welcome to Wild Card weekend! The stakes ramp up on Saturday as the 2018 edition of the NFL playoffs open in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon. There are some intriguing matchups this weekend which we’ll dive into each a little bit below. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
Tennessee at Kansas City (-8.5, 44)
Vegas Implied Final Score:
Kansas City 26
Tennessee 18
Key Injuries:
- Demarco Murray has been ruled out meaning Derrick Henry will get the majority of touches out of the backfield for the Titans.
- Albert Wilson was nicked up during the win over Denver but all signs point to him playing this week.
DFS Chalk: Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry, Alex Smith, Chiefs Defense
DFS Value: Eric Decker, Delanie Walker, Albert Wilson, Corey Davis, Marcus Mariota
Kansas City has gotten well over the past four weeks after a four-game losing streak nearly derailed their season. The teams they beat during this winning streak? The Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins and Broncos. One winning record out of the bunch. The Titans also stumble into the playoffs having lost three of their final four. Two of those came in Western time zones in hard fought games against Arizona and San Francisco, and they also dropped a close contest at home to the Rams before clinching this spot last week at home against Jacksonville. This matchup looks evenly matched on paper and while chilly, the forecasted 28-degree weather is not awful for offensive players.
Atlanta at Los Angeles (-6.5, 48.5)
Vegas Implied Final Score:
Los Angeles 27.5
Atlanta 22
Key Injuries:
- There are no injuries of significance to monitor in this game.
DFS Chalk: Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Rams Defense, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu
DFS Value: Sammy Watkins, DeVonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Austin Hooper
The biggest DFS decision of the week is whether to fade Todd Gurley, who finished the Regular Season as the top RB in Fantasy Football. He is very expensive across all formats this weekend and has certainly earned his price tag. He will feature on Saturday and his success or lack thereof will likely dictate GPP formats before Sunday games even kick off. Early projected ownership reports have a majority not paying the massive price tag. Personally, I’ve yet to decide which way I’ll end up going but this is likely the central decision to Wildcard DFS. Gurley would need to hit the 25-30 point mark to return GPP value, which while doable, is hardly something to bank on. The Rams defensive weakness is against the run game and I expect the Falcons to attempt to control the ball and play keep away from the Rams in this one. The Rams are legit and are a very dangerous offense capable of taking what the defense gives them.
Carolina at New Orleans (-7, 48.5)
Las Vegas Implied Score:
New Orleans 27.25
Carolina 21.25
Key Injuries:
- The Saints tight end situation is a bit murky, and while a complete potential flier, it might be worth paying attention to.
DFS Chalk: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Greg Olsen, Michael Thomas
DFS Value: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Ted Ginn, Mark Ingram
In our opinion, this sets up as the most interesting game on the weekend slate. These two teams met the first weekend in December with New Orleans prevailing by 10 points. In that game, the Saints ran for 148 yards and Brees threw for 269 yards with Kamara accounting for over 120 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns on 14 touches. In that game, the Panthers defense was visibly frustrated with their inability to wrap up Kamara. The Panthers will have one focus this week and that will be limiting and tackling the Saints lightning bolt offensive weapon. That could open the rest of the field for Brees and his wideouts, which sure seems like a good GPP route. Of course, the Panthers are a talented team very capable of winning and moving on here. Cam is scrambling once again, which makes him an elite option. While the Panthers are lacking at the WR position, Christian McCaffery and a healthy Greg Olsen make up for it. This game is a coin flip and brings plenty of fantasy options with perhaps the best chance of ‘shooting out’.
Buffalo at Jacksonville (-9, 39.5)
Las Vegas Implied Score:
Jacksonville 23.80
Buffalo 16.30
DFS Chalk: LeSean McCoy (if healthy), Leonard Fournette, Jags defense
DFS Value: Kellan Cole, Blake Bortles, Dede Westbrook
LeSean McCoy is likely to give it a go on his bum ankle, and without his presence, the Bills are a tremendous longshot to even threaten the Jaguars in this spot. Many are down on the Jags after a rough finish that saw them drop two in a row to end the season. The Jags are an interesting team heading into the postseason and they do two things well that win Championships. They have the best talent on defense in the AFC and can run the football. The game script here should allow Fournette and the Jags defense to shine all while awarding a home fan base that hasn’t seen a home playoff game in a decade. On paper, the Jags sure look like a team that no one wants to host in the Divisional Round.
OVERALL:
Top DFS Chalk Selections: Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville, Todd Gurley, RB, LA Rams, Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City
Top GPP / Value Selections: Christian McCaffery, RB, Carolina, Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta, Austin Hooper, TE, Atlanta, Eric Decker, WR, Tennessee
Top GPP Contrarian Stack: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Greg Olsen
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Wild Card Round
*Cesar Becerra*
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Wild Card Round
We’ve made it through another NFL season! I hope you had as much fun as I’ve had during the NFL. But don’t put the brakes on the train quite yet! We still got a few more weeks of NFL DFS, and it doesn’t get any juicier than this Wild Card Week. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
** Demarco Murray has been ruled out ** Bump up Derrick Henry for touch projections.
Vegas
We have four games on the slate, and they are Falcons at Rams (48), Saints at Panthers (47.5), Titans at Chiefs (44.5), and Bills at Jaguars (39.5). ATL/LA and CAR/NO both have respectable game totals that you would like to target, while the BUF/JAX game leaves a lot to be desired with a total below 40 points.
The Rams and Saints lead the way with implied team totals of 27.5. The Chiefs (26.5) and Jags (24) aren’t far behind. It’s interesting how none of these games have a spread less than a touchdown. The Rams and Falcons have the closest spread at 5.5, but that line started at 5, which indicates betters are putting more money on the Rams and the line could push the Rams to up over a touchdown favorite. Per usual, check back with Vegas Insiders on Sunday morning for the latest Vegas data.
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton ($6,500) – Cam is the safest play for cash games on this short four-game slate. Cam has a rushed the ball 50 times over his last four games and had accumulated 239 yards (4.8 YPC) with a touchdown. What’s more encouraging is the red zone opportunity Cam is getting rushing the ball. Cam has 12 red zone rushing attempts over these same four games, which shows that if the Panthers get down to the goal line, there’s a good chance Cam is going to score. This matchup is far from ideal as the Saints’ corners are far more talented than the Panthers receivers. But If Cam can get give you 11 DK points through the ground and another 220 and a touchdown through the air you’ll be satisfied he didn’t kill you like he killed many in Week 17.
Drew Brees ($6,400) – By this point in the season, it’s been well documented that Brees doesn’t have the same ceiling as he’s had in the past. But considering he’s implied to score a slate-high 27.5 points and is a home favorite, I don’t mind using Brees as a hedge to the Saints running backs. The Panthers ranked 4th in the league to opposing running backs and 22nd in aFPA to opposing QB (32nd aFPA vs. WR). This screams pass funnel, and I like a Brees pivot off the two-headed monster in the backfield for New Orleans.
Marcus Mariota ($5,500) – Mariota is my value play worth considering. The Chiefs are an 8.5 point favorite (tied for slate high) so that could force the Titans to throw more than they would like. Murray has already been ruled out, so I will be interested to see if they work Henry and Mariota out of the Wild Cat formation, which could increase Mariota’s rushes. The Chiefs ranked 23rd in aFPA to opposing Quarterbacks, so if Mariota is given the opportunity, he should be able to reach his value at $5.5K.
QB Rankings:
Newton
Brees
Goff
Ryan
Mariota
Smith
Bortles
Taylor
Running Back:
Todd Gurley ($9,700) – Gurley is the most expensive player on the slate. While the matchup seems far from ideal with the Falcons ranking 1st in aFPA to opposing running backs, Gurley is in a prime spot to reach value based on his ability to catch balls out of the backfield. The Falcons allowed the most receptions (107) and fifth most receiving yards (802) to running backs this season. Gurley finished in the top 5 of both categories and should eclipse 150 total yards. Gurley also benefits from being a home favorite with a team projected to score the most amount of points on the slate. Gurley might be too expensive for some in cash games given the excess of running back options. But he’s a prime candidate to be the highest scoring player on the slate with 68.5 DK points in his last two games.
Leonard Fournette ($7,400) – Fournette is the matchup play of the week. He’s a home favorite going up against the Bills defense that ranked dead last in aFPA to running backs during the regular season. Fournette also comes in as the fifth highest-priced running back and is the most affordable of the stud running backs. Fournette has 14 receptions in his past four games, but only has 129 yards (9.2 YPC). He doesn’t have the reception upside as Gurley, Kamara, McCoy, or Hunt but that’s why he’s priced lower.
Derrick Henry ($6,000) – With DeMarco Murray out, Henry is in line for another heavy workload day considering the Titans like to run their offense with a run-first mentality. Henry touched the ball 29 times for 117 yards and one score. Those numbers look great on the box score, but when you factor in that Henry only got two targets last week, it could be a little deceiving. If you erase the one catch Henry had for a 66-yard touchdown; you’re looking at a running back that had 5.1 DK points on 28 touches. This is extremely worrisome when you also factor in that the Titans are 8 point underdogs on the road and only implied to score 18 points. Henry might be the best point per dollar play in terms of touches, but the matchup is far from ideal.
RB Rankings:
High Tier
Gurley
Hunt
Fournette
Kamara
McCoy
Mid-Range
Henry
McCaffrey
Ingram
Freeman
Value:
Coleman
Tolbert * If McCoy is out *
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas ($7,800) – Thomas has 55 targets in the past six games, averaging just over 9 targets per game. In that same span, Thomas has 39 catches (70% catch rate) for 492 yards (82 yards/game) and 3 touchdowns. Thomas is going up against the Panthers who ranked 32nd in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. See Adam Levitan’s tweet below for the most recent production for WR’s 1 against the Panthers secondary. Thomas is the safest high priced option, but will likely need to score to reach value.
Robert Woods ($6,600) – Since I’m likely going to play Thomas in my lineups, I’m probably going to avoid the other chalk wide receiver Tyreek Hill ($6,800). And if I’m staying in that price range I like pivoting to Woods. Since returning from a shoulder injury that kept him out for 3 weeks, Woods has regained his spot as the primary receiver in the Rams offense. In his two games back, Woods has received 15 targets and has turned that into 9 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. While the production isn’t great, with two full weeks to prepare for this game, expect Sean McVay to work Woods back into the passing game plan. I love getting exposure to Woods mainly because I’m not rostering Goff but I will be rostering Gurley and Woods to get all the exposure of the Rams passing game.
Eric Decker ($3,500)/Corey Davis ($3,600) – Value is really tough to come by on this slate, and you’ll likely need to find a receiver close to min salary to be happy with your lineup. I prefer Decker over Davis and Albert Wilson ($3,300). Let the others flock to Wilson and inflate his ownership because of his 19 targets in the past two games. However, it’s worth noting that last week he played with the Chiefs B-Team, so he was given all the targets (11). I like Decker over Davis because Davis hasn’t been the same since returning from injury. In the past four games, Decker is out targeting Davis 32 to 26 while playing the same amount of snaps (76%). The Chiefs ranked 26th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers, and Decker leads the wide receivers in targets in their last four games.
WR Rankings:
High
Thomas
Julio
Woods
Hill
Funches
Mid-Range
Sanu
Ginn
Matthews
Kupp
Value
Decker
Davis
Tight End
It’s really difficult to find the salary to pay for Travis Kelce ($7,100). You have to decide if you want Kelce or a top-tier wide receiver but unfortunately, that forces you to play value wide receivers, and I see more value at the tight end position than a receiver. Because we’re so limited in value, this could be a week that we see two tight ends in a lot of lineups.
Delanie Walker ($4,700) – Walker is a nice mid-range tight end that could find his way in your lineups. He has 29 targets in his past four games and has turned that into 16 catches for 131 yards and one touchdown. This week he goes up against the Chiefs who rank 13th in aFPA. Walker would need to find the end zone to make value, but he has a respectable floor compared to the other options.
Austin Hooper ($2,900) – Hooper will be a popular value option at tight end. He doesn’t do anything that wow’s the box score (13 targets in last four games). But he’s a value play below $3K that will see 2-6 targets and is going up against the Rams who ranked 20th in aFPA to tight ends. It’s nothing special, but at least you won’t be the only one rostering him this week.
Marcedes Lewis ($2,500) – Again like I said, value is scarce, so I’m giving you an extra tight end I’m considering. Lewis is not a target monster by any means (8 in last four games). But I’m encouraged by his team market share of receiving touchdowns (23.8%), which is second among all tight ends behind Kelce. In the red zone, Lewis has a 40% touchdown rate per target (4 TDs to 10 targets). At 2.5K all he needs is to catch a touchdown. It’s a shot in the dark, but that’s how you have to build lineups this week.
TE Rankings:
Kelce
Walker
Olsen
Clay
Lewis
Hooper
Defense
Los Angeles Rams ($2,700) – The Rams are the best defense for value playing at home against a Falcons team that is only implied to score 21 points. They are cheap enough to take a risk on and have the second highest sack percentage (9%) on the slate behind the Jags (11%).
DST Rankings:
Jags
Rams
Chiefs
Bills
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 10
Draftkings NFL & Cash GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 10
Week 10 of the NFL features four teams on bye, and three of the four are teams that we generally like to use players from their offense. The Ravens, Chiefs, Raiders, and Eagles are on bye. Teams that are also not on the Draftkings main slate are the Seahawks, Cardinals, Patriots, Broncos, Dolphins, and Panthers. The slate features three teams that are more than 10 point favorites in the Lions (-13), Rams (-11.5), and the Steelers (-10.5).
Get our NFL Seasonal package for 50% off for a LIMITED TIME using code “NLA5017”
Quarterbacks:
There are four teams implied to score more than 25 points this week, which is generally the mark we like to target for QBs. The Rams lead the league in scoring and lead the slate with a 28.5 implied total. The Lions are second with a similar projection at 28.25. The Steelers and Falcons are both implied to score about 27 points. These QBs should lead the pack in ownership this week a the QB position.
Matthew Stafford (DK $6,800) – Stafford is the third highest priced QB on the main slate and faces the Browns who allowed the league’s worst aFPA (Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed) (20.4) to quarterbacks, per 4for4. Stafford is coming off of a 25 point performance against a bad Packers secondary. Stafford has thrown for over 300 yards in his last three games and has reached value in each of those starts. Stafford is still relatively priced down due to the fact he played on Monday night and is at $6,800. The Lions are implied to score the second highest points on the slate, and because of their running back committee, Stafford typically accounts for all the team’s points. Stafford is a safe cash play and is also viable in GPP’s.
Ben Roethlisberger (DK $6,600) – For $200 less, you can end up with Big Ben who is in a great spot this week. He goes up against a Colts defense that has been vulnerable to opposing quarterbacks when their team was implied to score more than 24 points. The Colts rank 25th in the league in aFPA, per 4for4 and Roethlisberger, is coming off of a bye. My concern here with Ben as a cash play is that the Steelers are on the road. Ben historically struggles on the road and quite frankly hasn’t been good this season for DFS. Ben has only hit value once this season but comes in with the most upside of all the quarterbacks. I’d use Ben as a GPP play only and find the extra $200 to get up to Stafford.
Value Play
Marcus Mariota (DK, $5,800) – An exciting value play is Marcus Mariota. I always like playing Mariota for his rushing upside, and now that he has his Chris Davis back he has more weapons at his disposal. Mariota goes up against a Bengals defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in aFPA. He’s failed to meet value five of his last six games, but the bright side is that you get him at a $600 discount. At $5,800 he only needs 17 points to hit value, and we’ve seen Mariota hit that earlier this season with Davis on the field. Mariota is a sneaky value GPP play that can help you fit in stud running backs.
Cash game plays:
M. Stafford, D. Prescott, T. Taylor, M. Ryan
Gpp plays:
(all of the above) B. Roethlisberger, M. Mariota, E. Manning
Running Backs:
This is a FANTASTIC week to pay up for running backs! Le’Veon Bell is the top-priced back at $9,800 on the road. Elliott and Gurley follow with an $8,800 and $8,700 price tag, respectfully. And then we have a slight drop off in price with Fournette ($8,400) and McCoy ($8,300). If I’m ranking these, I’d go Elliott, Gurley, Bell, McCoy, Fournette.
Ezekiel Elliott (DK $8,800) – Elliott again avoided suspension for yet another week. While that’s great for DFS, it’s a huge headache for season long. Fortunately, this write up is for DFS and Zeke is in another great spot. Zeke failed to reach value last week against the Chiefs, but outside of last week, he’s been a monster the two weeks before that. Zeke has 88 touches the past three weeks and has six touchdowns to show for the volume. This week he’s going up against the Falcons who allow the 6th most points to opposing running backs in PPR formats. They just let Christian McCaffrey score 20.4 PPR. That’s why I like Elliott; the Falcons are among the worst defenses in the league to give up points to pass-catching running backs. However, for Elliott, there is a concern being that he only has five targets and two catches in the last three games. I like Elliott more for GPP’s, but Gurley is by far the safer cash game play. I just have a feeling that the game flow could benefit Zeke getting around 35 touches.
Todd Gurley (DK $8,700) – If you like to go for trends then, Gurley is the obvious play over Zeke. Gurley checks all the boxes you’d want for a running back. He’s at home, favored by 11.5 points, and his team is implied to score the most points on the slate. Gurley has seen 12 targets out of the backfield and has caught seven passes for 97 yards. If there’s any concern here is that Gurley’s matchup is tough on paper. The Texans have allowed the least PPR fantasy points to running backs this season (15.7). The Texans rank second behind the Vikings in allowing opposing running backs to reach value with a -5.7 +/- rating per Fantasy Labs. The matchup is tough, but the Rams could get up early and feed Gurley so I can see him getting 25-30 targets.
Jordan Howard (DK $6,100) – Jordan Howard has received a lot of volume in the last four weeks. Howard has received 99 carries and has gained 410 yards in that four-week span. He’s getting a lot of work for a back at 6k and should eclipse 25+ touches. The issue with Howard is that he’s not very active on the receiving end. But in this case, I’m okay with giving up that receiving equity to gain the rushing attempts against a Packers defense that has given up the 10th most rushing TDs. Howard is a nice cash game play as a home favorite.
Carlos Hyde (DK $6,300) – Sticking around the same price range, Carlos Hyde has also been getting an uptick in touches since their rookie quarterback took over. Last week Hyde went for 4x value when he had a team-high 11 targets and caught nine balls for 84 yards to go along with his 12 carries. The 49ers pass blocking is terrible, and they rank in the top 10 in run blocking. In a game that should remain close, the 49ers could lean on Hyde over Bethard’s arm against the Giants who rank 21st in aFPA to running backs.
Bilal Powell (DK $4,000) – Forte missed practice on Wednesday. If Forte is out, Powell will see an uptick in snaps and targets. He’s your ideal back in a PPR format so if Forte’s limited he’s worth a shot.
Cash:
E. Elliott, T. Gurley, L. Fournette, J. Howard, O. Darkwa
Gpp:
(all of above) L. Bell, L. McCoy, L. Fournette, M. Gordon, C. McCaffery, M. Ingram, T. Rawls
Wide Receiver:
Julio Jones (DK, $8,000) – Seriously, what is up with Julio this year? I knew the Falcons offense would regress without Kyle Shanahan, but I did not expect Julio to only have one touchdown through week 10. Last week was Julio’s best game in terms of yardage. He saw double-digit targets (12) for only the 3rd time this season and caught half of his targets for 118 yards. The Cowboys rank 24th in the league in aFPA allowed to wide receivers so if Julio is going to get going you’d expect it to come in a home game that could go back and forth. This game has the highest over/under on the slate so it also has the potential to shoot out.
Golden Tate (DK $6,800) & Marvin Jones Jr. (DK $6,200) – If we expect Stafford to be the highest owned quarterback on the slate, it’s not a bad idea to bring it back with his two primary receivers. We saw Jones go off against the Packers on Monday night and his price does not reflect it, jumping up only $700. Jones actually leads the team in targets the past 3 games with 44 and Tate is second with 32. Tate is more of the slot receiver that racks up PPR points, while Jones is emerging as the bigger red zone threat. Both are in play here against a Browns defense that doesn’t scare me.
Robert Woods (DK $5,000) – Can I catch lightning in a bottle two weeks in a row? I’m not sure. But the Rams receivers are in a decent spot against the Texans who rank 29th in the league in aFPA to wide receivers. Over the past three games, Woods has taken over the target share for the Rams passing offense. Woods leads the wide receivers with 27 targets, followed by Cooper Kupp with 26 and over-rated Sammy Watkins has 16 in the past three weeks. There isn’t much separation, but Woods has returned value his last four games. The problem is that I will likely get my exposure to this high team total with Gurley and Woods is $1,300 more expensive than the past four games.
Value Receivers (I like these value receivers quite a bit)
Adam Humphries (DK $3,100) – He’s the T.Y. Hilton of this week. Nearly the stone minimum with an increase of snap count and a potential increase in targets with Mike Evans suspended for this game. I’m not sure if he’ll be popular, yet but he’s a clear value play to punt at this position. I’m hesitant because Ryan Fitzpatrick will be throwing him the ball and their team total is very low at 20 points.
Corey Davis (DK $4,000) – I’m a fan of Corey Davis for the talent he has. He had a very promising first week of the season, receiving ten targets and catching more than half of those but his progression was slowed down by injury. Last week he returned and played 75% of the snaps. He received five targets and caught two passes. I expect Davis to be on the field more and if you’re playing Mariota, why not stack him with Davis for some salary relief.
Marqise Lee (DK $4,100) – Lee has been the biggest beneficiary once Allen Robinson went down. Since week 2, Lee leads the team in targets with 54 and is averaging over seven targets per game. This week he faces the Chargers who are 17th in aFPA to wide receivers.
Cash:
A. Brown, J. Julio, G. Tate/M. Jones, A. Thielen, A. Humphries, M. Lee
Gpp:
D. Hopkins, D. Bryant, S. Diggs, J. Kearse, R. Woods, J. Smith-Schuster, S. Shepard
Tight End:
Eric Ebron (DK $3,100) – Again, back to the Lions passing attack. But this is just following my general rule of thumb. Which team is playing the Browns? Which tight end is starting for them? Play that tight end. Ebron has only scored once this season, but the Browns have given up 6 to tight ends this season.
Garrett Celek (DK $2,500) – Starting tight end George Kittle has already been ruled out for this game, pushing Celek into the starting lineup. In 3 games since starting for the 49ers, Cj Beathard has targeted his tight ends 18 times. The Giants are second to last behind the Browns for most aFPA to tight ends.
Cash:
E. Engram, C. Brate, E. Ebron, G. Celek
Gpp:
V. Davis, D. Walker, H. Henry,
Defense:
Defenses are the most volatile picks in a DFS lineup; I often recommend going with whatever is best for your roster construction. This week there are three teams as big favorites and are viable plays. The Browns, Packers, Colts, Texans, Bengals, Chargers, 49ers, and Bucs are all implied to score less than 20 points. Targeting any one of their opponents should be fine for a defense to play.
Cash:
Tennessee, Los Angeles, Chicago, Detroit
Gpp:
Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, New York Giants
Daily Fantasy Football: NFL DFS Week 1 Cash and GPP Picks
Quarterbacks:
Quarterback is the most underpriced position in both Draftkings and Fanduel. The main reason why the quarterback position is wildly underpriced is that there isn’t a large gap between the top scoring QB opposed to the 12th scoring QB. It also has to due in large part with the fact that their scoring is weighted lower than other positions. QB’s receive 4 points per touchdown and 1 point for every 25 yards gained. If you play on Draftkings they give a bonus for quarterbacks that throw over 300 yards. That may alter your decision making because it makes quarterbacks more reliant on touchdowns in FanDuel than in Draftkings. Now that we broke down the scoring discrepancies, let’s take a look at a few quarterbacks you should be targeting for both cash and gpp games.
Cash:
Marcus Mariota (DK $6,700, FD $7,700)
Mariota comes into week 1 as the consensus chalk quarterback. The 6th highest priced QB on DK and 7th highest priced QB on FD, Mariota won’t be heavily owned because of his bargain price. Instead, Mariota will likely be the highest owned QB in cash games because of his favorable Vegas totals. The Titans come into week one as a 3.5 point favorite against the Raiders in a game that features the highest over/under 50.5. This high over/under gives the Titans an implied total of 26.5 points, good enough for second on this slate only behind the Steelers. Quarterbacks with similar Vegas totals have gone on to perform well in the past. Mariota has had the best red zone touchdown efficiency rating since joining the league in 2015. When you add up all that and include that the Raiders had one of the worst secondaries in the league last season, you can see why Mariota is expected to be the highest owned quarterback.
GPP:
Russell Wilson (DK $ 6,900, FD $8,000)
After a let down 2016 season, Wilson finds himself looking to hit the refresh button. His fantasy production last season took a dip because he only rushed for 259 yards on the season with one rushing touchdown. It’s been heavily reported that Wilson changed his workout routine over the offseason and is looking to recapture his 2015 form this season. Well, week 1 is a nice opportunity for Wilson to put his new offseason regime to the test against the Packers. The Packers allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game last season and did hardly anything to improve their secondary in the offseason. This game opened up with an over/under just under 50 but has since increased to 51, giving this game the highest over/under on the slate. The Seahawks are on road underdogs, and that generally isn’t a recipe for success, but the Packers secondary is bad enough for you to consider taking a flier on Wilson in tournaments.
Plays worth considering in Cash & GPP:
Matt Ryan (DK $6,900, FD $8,500) – The Falcons are tied for 1st on the slate for implied team points with 27.5. Matt Ryan is going up against a Bears defense that is significantly improved in the front seven and new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian could look to air it out in their first game to get Falcon’s fans over their 28-3 blown Super Bowl win. However, Ryan does come with some red flags as he is playing on the road and there truly is no way of telling how the offense will function without Kyle Shanahan.
Ben Roethlisberger ($DK 7,300, FD $8,200) – Big Ben comes in with the same implied team total as the Falcons. He’s playing an abysmal Browns team and is an 8.5 point favorite. Ben will have his full assortment of weapons to his use with the return of LeVeon Bell and Martavis Bryant. The concern here is Ben’s home and road splits.
Running Backs
The running back position is almost always dominated by Le’Veon Bell (DK $9,800, FD $9,300) and David Johnson (DK $9,400, FD $9,400). This week is no different. Both are elite plays and expect to be the highest owned backs in this slate. Now the question is if you can play both of them. The answer is yes. There’s certainly enough value in other positions that allow you to make your lineup construction with these two elite backs. But if you have to choose one over the other I like Johnson over Bell because of the simple fact that the game has a closer spread and David Johnson plays for a Cardinal team that has fewer mouths to feed than the Steelers.
Chalk
Todd Gurley (DK $6,000, FD $7,300)
If you’re looking for a chalk alternative from the two safe, elite backs look no further than Todd Gurley. More of a value on Draftkings than Fanduel, Gurley comes into week 1 in an elite spot. The Rams are currently home favorite against the Andrew Luck-less Colts and have seen the Vegas line shift them from 3 point underdogs to 4 point favorites. With a poor offensive line and Jeff Fisher calling the plays last season, Gurley had a letdown year after being selected as the number 1 RB in most season-long drafts last season. This year the Rams have made some moves to improve their offensive line and also brought in Sean McVay to jumpstart their offense. Gurley should have an ample amount of opportunities to get to the 100 yard DK bonus and could even fall into the endzone.
GPP
Carlos Hyde (DK $4,600, FD $6,800)
If you’re looking for a cheap running back in your roster construction, Carlos Hyde is your answer. With Joe William landing on the IR and Tim Hightower being a surprise cut out of the 49ers camp, Hyde only has to share targets with undrafted rookie Matt Breida. Hyde should be a lock for 25 touches with Kyle Shanahan calling the plays now and his price on both sites could help open up salary in other roster spots.
Wide Receivers
Depending on lineup construction, wide receiver could be where you really differentiate yourself from the field. The top 3 studs are all in strong positions. Antonio Brown (DK $ 8,800, FD $9,100), Julio Jones (DK $8,500, FD $9,000), and AJ Green (DK $8,000, FD $ 8,400) are all in spots where we can see them have a big game. But let’s take an audible into some plays that people may be overlooking
Doug Baldwin (DK $6,700, FD $7,500)
I mentioned how the Seahawks passing offense was in a good spot against the Packers. The game flow looks to be in Baldwin’s favor as the Packers had the worst secondary in the league last season, and quite frankly their cornerbacks don’t scare any passing attack. Baldwin will face either Quinten Rollins, Davon House, or Damarious Randall neither was graded higher than top 50 of Pro Football Focus Cornerback Rankings.
Kendall Wright (DK $3,200, FD $5,200)
Kendall Wright looks poised to take advantage of a Bears receiving corp that is extremely depleted after losing Cameron Meredith for the season. Although Wright is not listed as the number two receiver behind Kevin White, Wright will be on the field in three wide receiver sets. That may sound concerning, but during preseason the first-team Bears offense ran three wide receiver sets 14 out of their 15 plays, so Wright is a sneaky cheap option to get some much volume. Wright was signed by the Bears after his previous work with offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains. Under Loggains, Wright saw and an average of 8.7 targets per game back in 2013. In a game that the Bears are heavy underdogs against the Falcons, the offense could be throwing the ball more than 40 times opening up cheap targets for Wright to snag.
Amari Cooper (DK $7,200, FD $7,600)
Amari Cooper should be another popular play. Playing in the game with the highest over/under on the slate, Cooper is going to have an ample of opportunities to bring in targets. The Titans last season ranked in the bottom of the league in points per game allowed to wide receiver, and with a duel of Cooper and Crabtree, the Raiders passing game could be in store for a big game.
Larry Fitzgerald (DK $5,900, FD $6,400)
Fitz is a veteran that could be heavily owned in this first few weeks. The one thing about the vet is that he has some drastic splits from the first half of the season and the second. Fitzgerald has averaged 13.9 points in the first 6 games of the season compared to 11.3 games in the second half. The Cardinals passing offense faces the Lions who were 32nd in DVOA.
** Fanduel only ** Terrelle Pryor (FD $6,200) is extremely underpriced in Fanduel. Although his preseason action with Kirk Cousins left a lot to be desired, Pryor should see a massive target amount.
Tight End
Drafting a tight end in DFS is often dependent on the site you play. In Draftkings touchdowns become less important than targets, while on Fanduel touchdowns valued higher than targets/receptions.
Chalk
Draftkings – Zach Ertz (DK $4,300, FD $6,100)
Ertz is the uber chalk on Draftkings. With the Eagles getting rid of Jordan Matthews and Alshon Jeffery expecting to be shadowed by Josh Norman, Ertz becomes the immediate beneficiary of targets from Carson Wentz. Ertz doesn’t have the touchdown upside that others like Jared Cook or Tyler Eifert may have, but his price and volume make him a nice cash play on Draftkings.
Fanduel – Tyler Eifert (DK $4,600, FD $6,100)
Eifert is an example of how site determines what would be the better player. With Green sucking up most of the targets, Eifert is left with minimal targets. Fortunately for Eifert, he scored on over 40% of his targets last season. Although that number is likely to regress, Eifert is at a good price for such a volatile position.
Defense
Los Angeles Rams (DK $3,200, FD $4,600)
The Rams’ defense is in a good spot as a 4 point home favorite against a team that doesn’t have their starting quarterback. The Colts could very much be a train wreck come Sunday, and although the Rams will likely be without their All-Pro Aaron Donald, their defense should be able to handle Scott Tolzien and Frank Gore.
Houston Texans (DK $3,800, FD 5,100)
The Texans are the chalkiest defense with the highest upside. Aside from the fact that they are with the most talented defense in a prime matchup, they get to face Blake Bortles. Bortles looked dreadful this preseason and last year ranked in the bottom-10 in interception rate (3.7%). They are the most expensive defensive option out of the other chalk defense.