We have our customary chunk of day games Wednesday, leaving us with eight contests to choose from for the main evening slate in DFS. Despite the limited schedule, there are a lot of appealing matchups to exploit.
Read MoreMLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 20
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.
Starters With Favorable Matchups
Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians: vs. MIN, at CWS
Bauer has been extremely consistent for the Indians. He hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in any of his starts this season and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 17 of his 23 outings. The end result has been a sparkling 2.34 ERA that is backed by a 2.42 FIP. Luck hasn’t been a factor as opponents have a .305 BABIP against him. One of the big reasons for his improvement is his career-high 13% swinging-strike rate, which has resulted in an 11.4 K/9. The Twins have had their struggles scoring runs and traded away two of their best hitters in Eduardo Escobar and Brian Dozier. The White Sox are in the bottom third of baseball in runs scored, as well, setting up Bauer for a very productive Week 20.
Cole Hamels, Chicago Cubs: at KC, vs. WAS
Hamels has to be happy after being traded to the Cubs. He was awful pitching at home for the Rangers, posting a 6.41 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP across 10 starts. He has a 2.69 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over his other 11 starts outside of Globe Life Park in Arlington. The move to the National League helps, too, since he will get to avoid the DH. Although he won’t get that luxury in his first start of Week 20 playing in Kansas City, the Royals have scored the fewest runs (413) in the league. The Nationals are certainly a much tougher opponent, but they only have a .708 OPS on the road compared to a .775 OPS at home.
C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees: at CWS, vs. TEX
Sabathia has found a way to pitch with diminished velocity and still be a valuable part of the Yankees rotation. He sometimes struggles to provide length, but he’s still managed to record a 3.59 ERA. His 4.70 FIP suggests he’s been a bit lucky, but his .282 opponents’ BABIP is close to his .293 career mark. With the White Sox struggles offensively already detailed, Sabathia could start Week 20 off on a high note. The Rangers are an excellent hitting team at home, but they have the sixth-lowest OPS (.682) on the road. To top it off, Sabathia has a 2.69 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 11 starts at Yankee Stadium.
Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers: at LAA, vs. MIN
Boyd finished July strong, allowing three runs and recording 20 strikeouts across 19 innings in his last three starts. Although two of those starts came against the Royals and the Reds, one was against the vaunted Red Sox lineup. Boyd has been aided by a .264 opponents’ BABIP this season, but his 4.22 ERA is actually higher than his 3.84 indicates it should be. He does have a respectable 8.2 K/9 and can provide value in the right matchup. Both the Angels and the Twins are in the bottom five of baseball in terms of OPS against left-handed pitching, making Boyd a viable streaming option who is still available in 80% of Yahoo! leagues.
Starters to Avoid
Rich Hill, Los Angeles Dodgers: at OAK, at COL
Hill has been limited by injuries again this season, but he’s pitched well when healthy. He’s been especially hot of late, recording a 2.90 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a 10.5 K/9 over his last seven outings. His first start of the week isn’t bad because even though he has to face the DH, the Athletics are actually a far worse hitting team at home than on the road. However, his second start at Coors Field is scary. The Rockies have the second-highest OPS against left-handed pitching (.798) and the third-highest OPS at home (.827). Hill might not be worth the risk.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners: at TEX, at HOU
Hernandez might be at a crossroads in his career. He’s struggled with diminished velocity, resulting in a 5.49 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP this year. His strikeouts are down, as well, with a 7.4 K/9. He’ll need to make an adjustment like Sabathia did to once again become a viable fantasy commodity. He has a respectable 4.02 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP at home, but he’s been destroyed on the road with a 7.58 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. The Rangers love hitting at home and the Astros are still dangerous despite some key injuries, so make sure to keep Hernandez out of your lineup.
Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays: vs. BOS, vs. TB
Stroman was crushed in his last start against the Athletics, giving up seven runs over five innings. He’s been prone to blowups this season, allowing at least five runs in six of his 15 starts. His 1.49 WHIP is by far the highest mark of his career, which is a problem considering he doesn’t have an overpowering arsenal. Facing the Red Sox in his first start for Week 20 could be a disaster. The Rays aren’t as daunting of a task, but they have averaged 5.3 runs across their last 20 games. With his limited strikeout potential, Stroman seems like an unnecessary to take if you need a streaming option.
MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 16
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.
Starters With Favorable Matchups
Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins: vs. KC, vs. TB
Berrios has allowed five home runs in his last two starts and has had problems keeping hitters inside the park, in general, this year with a 1.3 HR/9. However, he still has a 3.54 ERA and a 3.39 FIP because he has kept runners off base with a 1.00 WHIP. He had control issues when he was first called up, but he’s thrown a first-pitch strike to 65.6% of the batters that he has faced and has a 2.0 BB/9 this year. He also has career highs in swinging-strike rate (11.4%) and K/9 (9.0). His first start in Week 16 against the Royals is an excellent matchup considering they have hit the fewest home runs (70) and scored the fewest runs (310) in baseball. The Rays aren’t much better as they have the fifth-fewest home runs (79) and the fifth-fewest runs scored (347).
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs: at SF, at SD
Hendricks has never finished with an ERA over 3.96 or a FIP over 3.88 in his career, but he has a 4.27 ERA and a 4.80 FIP this season. Not only would his 1.25 WHIP be the highest of his career, but so would his 1.5 HR/9. He’s never been an overpowering pitcher, but he has just a 6.7 K/9. He’s allowed 13 runs over 13.1 innings in his last three starts, but his fortunes could change this week since both the Giants and the Padres are in the bottom-third of the league in runs scored. He has yet to face the Padres this year, but he allowed only one run and recorded seven strikeouts over seven innings in his lone start against the Giants. You shouldn’t count on him for strikeouts, but he can still provide value in Week 16.
Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies: at NYM, at MIA
Eflin was supposed to start twice in Week 15 but left his first start with a blister issue. The Phillies decided to give him an extra day of rest for his next outing, pushing him from Sunday to Monday. He was rolling before suffering the blister against the Orioles, allowing two runs and recording six strikeouts in seven innings. He’s having by far the best season of his young career, posting a 2.97 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and a 1.08 WHIP over 11 starts. Not only does he get to face the aforementioned poor Marlins lineup, but the Mets have been even worse, scoring the third-fewest runs (336). As long as his blister doesn’t cause further issues, this is shaping up to be an excellent week for Eflin.
Jhoulys Chacin, Milwaukee Brewers: at MIA, at PIT
Chacin has been a good addition to the Brewers starting staff, posting a 3.63 ERA, 3.84 FIP, and a 1.29 WHIP across 19 starts. He has only allowed 0.6 HR/9, which is nothing new considering he has a 0.8 HR/9 for his career. That’s especially impressive considering he spent six seasons having to pitch in Coors Field as a member of the Rockies. The Marlins have had a couple of big offensive performances lately, but they have still scored four runs or fewer in 8 of their last 13 games. The Pirates offense is middle of the pack at best, setting up Chacin with the potential for two strong performances. He is still available in 67% of Yahoo! leagues, so pick him up if you are looking to stream someone.
Starters to Avoid
Mike Leake, Seattle Mariners: at LAA, at COL
Leake was stellar for the Mariners in June, recording a 2.57 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in six starts. He was aided by a .225 opponents BABIP though and even with that hot stretch, he still has a 4.11 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP for the season overall. He’s never provided many strikeouts and this season has been no different with a 5.6 K/9. Leake has already faced the Angels three times this year and while he did have one good start where he allowed one run in six innings, he allowed seven runs (six earned) over 9.1 innings in the other two. It doesn’t get any easier having to pitch in Coors Field for his second start of the week, so this is not the week to take a chance on putting Leake into your lineup.
Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies: vs. ARI, vs. SEA
Like many of the Rockies’ pitchers, Anderson struggles to pitch in Coors Field. He has a 3.48 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP on the road this year, but a 4.37 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP at home. He has thrown seven fewer innings at home, but he has allowed three more home runs there than he has on the road. The Diamondbacks have had much more success against lefties with a .762 OPS this year and hammered Anderson for seven runs over 2.1 innings in their first meeting. The Mariners won’t have the use of the DH playing in the National League, but they still have a potent offense that can score in bunches. Keep Anderson on your bench.
Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays: at ATL, at BOS
Stroman got off to an abysmal start this season, then landed on the DL with a shoulder issue. He put together two strong starts upon first being activated, but was rocked for six runs over 4.2 innings in his last outing against the Mets. Things get much harder for him this week against the Braves and the Red Sox as both teams are in the top-six in baseball in runs scored. The Red Sox have also hit the second-most home runs (128). This has the potential to be a really rough Week 16 for Stroman.
MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 7
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 7
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Injuries to starting pitchers are starting to pile up around baseball, the latest of which saw both Jacob deGrom (elbow) and Clayton Kershaw (biceps) land on the DL. Your starting fantasy staff might not be as strong as a result. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.
Starters With Favorable Matchups
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies: vs. SF, vs. NYM
Nola has followed up his breakout campaign last year with a 2.17 ERA, 2.98 FIP, and 0.92 WHIP through seven starts. His K/9 is only 6.9, but expect that to increase sooner rather than later since he has finished with a K/9 of at least 9.8 in back-to-back seasons. He has been a bit lucky with opponents posting a .236 BABIP, but he has thrown a first-pitch strike to 65.7% of the batters that he has faced and has a 33.2% O-swing % (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone), both of which would be career highs. The Giants and Mets are both in the bottom 10 in the league in runs scored, leaving Nola with the potential for a great week.
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs: vs. MIA, vs. CWS
Hendricks has a 3.19 ERA and 1.09 WHIP this season, but a deeper diver indicates he has not pitched that well. His FIP sits at 5.31 and opponents have just a .223 BABIP. He’s been victimized by the long ball as well, allowing eight home runs in 36.2 innings. He only has a 0.9 HR/9 for his career, so expect some improvement from him in that area as the season wears on. He has already faced the Marlins once this season, allowing one earned run to go along with five strikeouts in six innings. The Marlins have also hit the fewest home runs (24) in baseball, which should help Hendricks with his homer problems. He also has the benefit of facing the White Sox at home, so he won’t have to face the designated hitter. Although he’s not a big strikeout pitcher, look for a valuable week from Hendricks.
Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles: vs. KC, vs. TB
Bundy has been unlucky this season, allowing a .345 BABIP to opposing hitters. It’s resulted to a 1.35 WHIP, but his 10.6 K/9 has helped offset the issue and result in a 3.76 ERA and 3.67 FIP. His increased K/9 can be attributed to his career-high marks in both O-swing % (38.2%) and swinging strike percentage (15.6%). He’s been roughed up in his last two outings, but that’s mainly because he allowed five home runs after giving up just one long ball in his first five starts combined. The Royals and Rays are both in the bottom 10 in the league in OPS against right-handed pitching this season, so look for Bundy to rebound in Week 7.
Sean Newcomb, Atlanta Braves: at TB, at MIA
Newcomb was lined up to start twice last week, but the Braves altered their rotation by calling up promising rookie Mike Soroka. Newcomb now gets his two starts in Week 7 and will look to continue his excellent start to the season. He had control issues last year with a 5.1 BB/9, but he’s cut that down to 3.9 this season, some of which can be attributed to him throwing a first-pitch strike to 64.8% of the batters that he has faced. He also provides excellent strikeout upside with a 10.9 K/9. Newcomb has been a better pitcher on the road during his Major League career, posting a 3.23 ERA compared to a 4.79 ERA at home. Amazingly, he’s still available in 51% of Yahoo! leagues, so he would make an excellent pickup this week if you can grab him.
Starters to Avoid
Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals: at BAL, at CLE
Duffy is not off to a great start with a 5.63 ERA and 5.61 FIP through seven outings. He’s had a problem keeping runners off base with a 1.49 WHIP, but his opponents .292 BABIP is not high by any means. He is giving up a lot of solid contact with a 41% hard-hit rate that is almost 10 percentage points higher than his career mark. His BB/9 and HR/9 are both up as well, which is not a recipe for success. The Orioles only have a .629 OPS this season against right-handed pitchers but have hit lefties much better with a .720 OPS. The Indians are also in the top 10 in baseball in terms of runs scored overall, meaning this might be the week to put Duffy on your bench.
Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays: vs. SEA, vs. BOS
Stroman couldn’t be off to a much worse start, recording a 7.52 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. His opponents .330 BABIP isn’t a lot higher than his .307 career BABIP allowed and he’s had significant control issues with a 4.5 BB/9. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, so he can’t afford to continue throwing a first-pitch strike to just 56.7% of the batters that he has faced this season. The Mariners and Red Sox are both in the top eight in the league in OPS against righties, so this could be a rough week for Stroman.
Jose Urena, Miami Marlins: at CHC, vs. ATL
Urena isn’t having a terrible season despite his 0-5 record, posting a 4.28 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He doesn’t have much strikeout upside with just a 7.2 K/9 and his 43.1% hard-hit rate allowed is concerning as well. This week brings two very tough matchups, the first of which comes against a Cubs squad that scored five runs in four innings against him on opening day. He then has to face a Braves team that has scored the third-most runs in baseball, so this could be a bad week to take a chance on him in your lineup.
2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers
2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers
With the offensive outburst that was experienced throughout the league in 2017, quality starting pitchers seem harder to come by this year in fantasy baseball. However, that doesn’t mean you still can’t assemble a quality staff for your squad. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some starting pitchers who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.
The Top Five
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kershaw is the elite of the elite when it comes to starting pitchers. Outside of his rookie season in 2008, Kershaw has never finished the season with an ERA above 2.91. His career ERA of 2.36 is off the charts and is in no ways a fluke considering his career FIP is 2.60. He does an excellent job keeping men off base, posting a WHIP of 0.95 or lower in each of the last five seasons. That’s a big reason why he posted a 2.31 ERA last year despite posting a career-high 1.2 HR/9. To top off his stellar numbers, he has a K/9 of at least 10.4 in four straight seasons. Injuries have limited him to 175 innings or fewer in back-to-back seasons, but his numbers are so outstanding when he is on the mound that he is the clear choice for the top starting pitcher in fantasy baseball.
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
Scherzer was a very good starting pitcher as a member of the Detroit Tigers, but he’s taken his game to the next level since joining the Nationals. In three seasons in Washington, Scherzer has never had an ERA above 2.96 or a WHIP above 0.97. His batting average against has decreased each year with the Nationals with opponents hitting a mere .178 against him in 2017. He’s also a strikeout machine, posting a K/9 of at least 10.1 in each of the last six seasons, topping out at a career-high 12.0 last year. Throw in the fact that he has logged at least 214.1 innings in five straight seasons and not only is he the second-best starting pitcher in fantasy baseball, but he is well worth a first-round pick.
Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
Sale had arguably the best season of his career in 2017, finishing 17-8 with a 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and an insane 308 strikeouts in 214.1 innings. He is one of the most dominating strikeout pitchers in the game, posting a K/9 of at least 10.8 in three of the last four seasons. If not for a few rough starts in August and September and a stellar finish by Corey Kluber, Sale could have won his first Cy Young Award last year. Like Scherzer, Sale has been very reliable, throwing at least 208.2 innings in four of the last five seasons. The only reason he comes in third on this list behind Scherzer is that he had an ERA of 3.05 or higher in four of five seasons entering 2017. It’s a matter of splitting hairs though, so it could also cost you a first-round pick to get Sale on your team this year depending on the size of your league.
Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
Kluber closed out 2017 strong, going 11-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in the second half of the season. Overall, he set or tied career highs last year in wins (18), ERA (2.25), WHIP (0.87) and K/9 (11.7) on his way to winning the American League Cy Young Award. His FIP was also 2.50, marking the third time in the last four seasons that he recorded a FIP of 2.97 or lower. With a career K/9 of 9.9, Kluber was able to make big strides in that category last year by posting a swinging strike percentage of 24.2%, significantly higher than his career mark of 20.3%. He may be in for a slight regression in the strikeout department this year, but he is still going to finish with great numbers overall. If you want him on your team, you’ll likely have to spend at least a second-round pick to get him.
Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
Strasburg provided fantasy owners with a ton of value last year despite only logging 175.1 innings, finishing 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 204 strikeouts. His FIP was just 2.72, marking the fourth straight season he had a FIP of 2.94 or lower. Like the other starters on this list, he is a dominant strikeout pitcher, recording a K/9 of at least 10.1 in each of the last four seasons. There is no doubt that when Strasburg is healthy, he is one of the top pitchers in the league. However, health has been a concern with Strasburg logging at least 200 innings only once in his career. He had actually thrown less than 150 innings in back-to-back seasons entering 2017. That’s the reason he comes in fifth on this list, but he is still worthy of being a fantasy staff ace.
Overvalued Players
Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros
Cole’s best season was in 2015 as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates when he finished 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 208 innings. However, his numbers have declined in the two years since, finishing last year 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA and 196 strikeouts in 203 innings. His main problem in 2017 was a massive increase in home runs allowed. He only allowed 29 home runs from 2014 through 2016 but gave up 31 in 2017 alone. When you add in the fact that he also issued a career-high 55 walks, you get the big jump in ERA. There is a reason for optimism this year though as his ground ball to flyball ratio was 0.85 last year, which is almost right on pace with his career mark. His home run to flyball percentage jumped all the way up to 11.3%, almost double his previous career high. With some regression to the norm this season, Cole could get his ERA back down under 4.00. The problem is his ADP in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) is 81.79, ahead of players including Masahiro Tanaka (99.84) and Jose Berrios (106.66). Cole appears to be trending upward, but his ADP is too high right now to provide enough value for your squad.
Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays
Stroman is a fine starting pitcher, winning 13 games and posting a 3.09 ERA for the Blue Jays last season. He doesn’t provide much in the way of strikeouts though with a career K/9 of 7.3. Considering he has posted a 1.29 WHIP or higher in back-to-back seasons, that can be a bit of a scary proposition. If you are going to select a starting pitcher who doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters, he needs to help you in both ERA and WHIP, not just ERA. Stroman’s current ADP is 134.78, which is too high considering his limitations.
Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
Gonzalez had a surprisingly good season in 2017, finishing 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. It marked the first time he had an ERA under three and a WHIP under 1.20 since 2012. His 8.4 K/9 was on par with his career numbers, but he was somewhat lucky with opposing hitter having a .261 BABIP against him. For his career, that mark is .296. He also had a FIP of 3.93 last year, so some regression in 2018 seems likely. With a current ADP of 153.70, it might be wise to avoid him during your draft.
Undervalued Players
Lance McCullers, Houston Astros
After recording an ERA of 3.22 in both of his first two seasons in the majors, McCullers finished with an ERA of 4.25 in 2017. However, his WHIP (1.30), HR/9 (0.6) and FIP (3.10) indicate he was a bit unlucky last year in terms of his ERA. He posted an excellent 10.0 K/9, which was actually down from 11.8 in 2016. Considering his ERA should improve this season, he records a lot of strikeouts and he should get a lot of opportunities for wins on a great team, McCullers ADP of 145.15 is a bargain. He’ll have a better K/9 than Cole and could finish with a similar ERA and WHIP, so I’d much rather take him several rounds later.
Jacob Faria, Tampa Bay Rays
Faria faired well in his first taste of the big leagues last year, posting a 3.43 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9. In his 24 career starts at Triple-A, Faria posted similar numbers with a 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, but his K/9 was significantly higher at 10.5. He had a 10.7 K/9 in 27 career starts at Double-A as well, so he could see an uptick in that department this season. Faria is just 24 years old heading into 2018 and is already an important part of the Rays rotation. His current ADP is just 233.29, which is far too low considering his upside. Don’t be surprised if his numbers are better than Stroman’s at the end of the season.
Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs
Chatwood did not have a good season for the Colorado Rockies last year, finishing 8-15 with a 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.3 K/9. He was destroyed when he pitched in Coors Field, posting a 6.01 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 70.1 innings. He was a much better pitcher on the road though with a 3.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 77.1 innings. The move to the Cubs should do wonders for his value since his career ERA at Coors was an unsightly 5.17. With an ADP 269.64, he’s someone to consider targeting late in your drafts to add depth to your rotation, just don’t count on him for a lot of strikeouts.