Get ready for a reduced schedule in Week 10 with six teams on a bye. The Vikings, Cowboys and Seahawks all play in prime time, as well, leaving out a lot of the top names for Sunday’s main DFS slate.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 – Running Backs
The running back landscape for Week 6 in DFS is going to be very different. If you’re playing in the main Sunday afternoon slate, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack and James White are just a few of the names who won’t be at your disposal either because their team is on a bye or they are playing in a prime time game.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 4 – Running Backs
Between some significant injuries and two teams being on a bye, the running back options aren’t as deep in Week 4.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 2 – Running Backs
Even though it’s only been one week, the running back landscape across the league has already been impacted by a few key injuries. That leaves us with some added value plays to consider for Week 2 in DFS.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 7 – Running Backs
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
The running back position isn’t very deep for Week 7 because not only are four teams on a bye, but Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, and Kareem Hunt also won’t be available for the main Sunday afternoon slate in DFS because they play in primetime games. Let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain the edge for your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Todd Gurley vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $10,200
DraftKings = $9,800
Gurley dominated the Broncos last week, rushing 28 times for 208 yards and two touchdowns. After posting 13 rushing touchdowns in 2017, he already has nine through the first six weeks. He’s also been heavily involved in the passing game, receiving at least five targets in five of six games and posting two receiving scores.
It’s pick-your-poison when it comes to trying to defend against the Rams. Quarterback Jared Goff has shown significant improvement and they have a trio of excellent wide receivers, although Cooper Kupp likely won’t play in Week 7 due to a knee injury. Gurley is often put in great positions to score touchdowns and has one of the highest floors at any position in DFS, as a result. Don’t expect the 49ers to be able to slow him down.
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $8,100
The Cowboys pulled off a surprising 40-7 drubbing of the Jaguars on Sunday. Elliott played a key role in their victory, rushing 24 times for 106 yards and a touchdown. That marked the third time in the last four weeks that Elliot has rushed for at least 100 yards. He also converted his only target into an 11-yard score.
Outside of Week 6, the Cowboys offense hasn’t been very good this season. Elliott has been limited to four total touchdowns, as a result, but he’s been heavily involved with 117 carries and 23 receptions on 30 targets. His involvement in the passing game has provided a significant boost to his value after he had just 26 receptions on 38 targets across 10 games last year. The Redskins defense isn’t exactly a favorable matchup, but Elliott gets enough volume in the offense to still be worth considering in cash tournaments.
Christian McCaffrey vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,700
The Redskins stymied McCaffrey last week, holding him to 20 yards on eight carries. The Panthers were playing catchup after being down 14-0 after the first quarter, which was a big reason why McCaffrey had so few carries. Luckily, he’s a significant part of their passing game and finished the contest with seven catches on eight targets for 46 yards.
It was encouraging to see McCaffrey get so many targets even with tight end Greg Olsen returning from injury. Although McCaffrey did have an outlier performance where he rushed for 184 yards on 28 carries in Week 3, the majority of his value comes from his pass-catching abilities. The Eagles have been stout against the run, but they are tied for the fourth-most receptions allowed to opposing running backs (41).
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Tarik Cohen vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $5,100
Cohen got off to a quiet start this year but had his breakout game Week 4 when he not only rushed for 53 yards on 13 carries, but he also caught seven of eight targets for 121 yards and a touchdown. His speed and ability to catch passes out of the backfield makes him a tough cover for opposing defenses. The Bears had a bye for Week 5, but Cohen was productive again last week against the Dolphins, catching seven of nine targets for 90 yards and another touchdown.
Cohen does have to split backfield duties with Jordan Howard, but Howard has seen his percentage of snaps decrease each of the last three games, bottoming out at 51% in Week 6 compared to 49% for Cohen. If the Bears defense has trouble slowing down the Patriots, Cohen would likely be more involved in a high-scoring game as he’s a far superior pass catcher. He’s a bit risky, but there is plenty of upside here if the game flow falls in his favor.
Carlos Hyde vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $4,700
The Browns had their doors blown off by the Chargers last week as they were down 21-6 at the half and ultimately lost 38-14. As a result of the early lopsided score, Hyde finished with a season-low 14 carries for 34 yards. He also failed to receive a target for the first time this season, although he’s never logged more than three targets in any contest this season.
Maybe the most concerning part of Hyde’s poor performance was that he averaged just 2.4 yards-per-carry. That marked the third game this season where he has averaged less than three yards-per-carry. On the plus side, he has already scored five touchdowns. The Bucs haven’t given up a ton of rushing yards, but opposing offenses have only rushed the ball against them 112 times, fourth-fewest attempts in the NFL. They give up a lot of yards through the air, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Hyde at least finds himself in a favorable position to reach the end zone in this contest.
Kenyan Drake vs. Detroit Lions
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $4,900
Drake is involved in a frustrating timeshare for fantasy purposes with the ageless Frank Gore. Drake hasn’t logged more than 14 carries in any game this season, as a result. His best performance came in Week 5, but that was mostly attributed to his seven catches on 11 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown. The passing game is one area that he has been able to separate himself from Gore, receiving 31 targets compared to Gore’s five.
Don’t expect things to shift any in terms of his workload this week, but that doesn’t mean Drake can’t provide value. The Lions have allowed three running backs to rush for over 100 yards in a game this season and have allowed the third-most rushing yard per game (145.8), overall. His upside isn’t off the charts due to Gore’s presence, but Drake is still someone to consider in tournament play.
Peyton Barber vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $3,800
The Bucs running game has been horrendous. Entering Week 6, Barber had rushed for 33 yards or fewer in three straight games and rookie Ronald Jones is still very much a work in progress. Barber finally showed signs of life in Jameis Winston’s return as the starting quarterback Sunday, rushing 13 times for 82 yards and catching all four of his targets for an additional 24 yards.
Barber still has a long way to go before you can feel very comfortable rolling with him in your lineup. However, it was encouraging to see him get 13 carries coming out of the bye week compared to only one for Jones. Barber appears to have a hold on the lead back job, for the time being, and gets a favorable matchup Week 7 against a Browns team that is tied for the sixth-most yards-per-carry allowed (4.7) and has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (1382.).
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Mark Ingram vs. Baltimore Ravens
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $5,900
Alvin Kamara was a man possessed during Ingram’s four-game suspension. That didn’t matter for Ingram’s first game back, though, as he received 16 carries compared to just six for Kamara. Kamara was only on the field for 47% of the team’s offensive plays after being on the field for at least 71% of them in each of the previous four weeks. Some of that had to do with the Saints getting up big in that game, while some of it also might have been the Saints seeing an opportunity to give Kamara a little rest. Expect him to be much more involved Sunday. This isn’t a great matchup for the Saints’ running backs, either, with the Ravens allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (82.8).
Alex Collins vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,800
After averaging 4.6 yards-per-carry during his breakout campaign last year, Collins is only averaging 3.6 yards-per-carry this season. He did come away with two touchdowns last week, but Javorius Allen has been their preferred goal-line back. Allen has also been on the field for 47% of the team’s offensive plays this season compared to 43% for Collins. The Saints have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (71.4), leaving Collins with very little upside.
NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments
*Chris Tierney – cstcst*
NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments
If you’re playing DFS this weekend don’t get fancy. Who is going to win the game and how? Answer these questions for yourself prior to constructing anything from a lineup perspective. Making more than one lineup? Alter who will win and how a bit and construct again, all while keeping a similar core lineup.
As Demarcus Robinson and Josh Hill demonstrated last weekend, roughly one obscure player POPS in each playoff game. It will likely take having one of these guys on your squad to take down a large GPP. Rostering players such as these are a true dart throw and the risk often outweighs the reward. My dart throws this week are Vance McDonald and Corey Davis. Both guys can make the big play and both have decent matchups. The Jags have a great defensive backfield and are also adept at rushing the passer. Quick hitting plays to the TE and RB are two ways to attach a defense like the Jaguars. Vance McDonald made some big plays for the 49ers last season and has seen his role expand down the stretch after being injured for much of the season. Corey Davis’s role continues to expand in the Titans passing game. He had a serviceable game last weekend and faces another spotty secondary this week in a game where his offense will likely have to throw the football.
Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
Atlanta (-3.5, 41) at Philadelphia
On paper, this sure looks like a 26-13 or thereabouts Falcons win. They are a veteran-led group with an improving defense who is accustomed to the pressures of the playoffs. Paper doesn’t mean much come kickoff. This will be an interesting game and it will be roaring in Philly. There are some interesting options here but this game isn’t where the majority of my focus will be this weekend.
DFS Chalk: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Zack Ertz, Devonta Freeman
DFS Value: Nick Foles, Nelson Agholor, Tevin Coleman, Mohamed Sanu, Jay Ajayi
Tennessee at New England (-14, 48)
This game has the opportunity to shoot out. Will the real New England defense please stand up? Statistically, they’ve been one of the worst units in the NFL this season but they’ve bowed their backs when it mattered most, allowing them to take the Division and home-field advantage yet again. Tennessee’s pass defense has been a sieve which shines a light upon his Greatness and his favorite Tight End. I think New England wins here, but I think it will be more difficult than many expect. The Titans gained some confidence last weekend and I expect their offense to have some success. I think there are a bunch of players worth rostering in this game. Remember, Belichick likes to neutralize one aspect of his opponent’s offense. That has to be the Tennessee running-game right? #gametheory – Tennessee passing attack is interesting to me in GPP situations. The return of Hogan should lighten the targets to Cooks here.
DFS Chalk: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, Delanie Walker, Derrick Henry
DFS Value: Corey Davis, Eric Decker, James White, Rex Burkhead, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Rishard Matthews
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-7, 41)
Sunday should be the fun day for this weekends slate and kicks off with a very interesting matchup in Pittsburgh. If Ryan Shazier were healthy, I’d think this was a slam dunk Steelers victory. As we all now, he sadly is not (keep on getting well Ryan!), and the Steelers run defense has not looked the same. They’ll copy the Bills blueprint and load the box with eight men. Will Nathan Hackett trust Blake Bortles here? Will they allow him to attack this Steelers defense down the field with Lee, Hurns and Westbrook? That is likely their plan and without something like it, they’ll be cleaning out their lockers early next week. The Steelers offense has the tough chore of the Jaguars defense. The Jags will slow the Steelers down some here, but the Jags offense has to apply pressure to this Steelers team. An upset here wouldn’t shock me but I think this is perhaps the most interesting matchup of the playoffs thus far and will be telling about the Steelers Championship hopes.
DFS Chalk: Big Ben, LeVeon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster
DFS Value: Vance McDonald, Dede Westbrook, Mercedes Lewis, Marqise Lee
New Orleans at Minnesota (-4.5, 46.5)
Like our Carolina | New Orleans call last week, this is the one with the best opportunity to shoot out and could be a thrilling final game to the weekend. The Vikings are legit, but so are the Saints. Both of these teams are formidable on both sides of the ball and both teams have offensive players who can score from anywhere on the field. I prefer Minnesota here but as anyone who follows the NFL knows, the Saints offense is capable of moving 85 yards in two or three plays at any time.
DFS Chalk: Case Keenum, Adam Thielen, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara
DFS Value: Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Kyle Rudolph, Ted Ginn, Brandon Coleman, Josh Hill
Top GPP Stacks:
1a: Case Keenum, Jerick Mckinnon, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas
2a: Tom Brady, James White, Rob Gronkowski, Corey Davis
NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football
*Chris Tierney – cstcst*
NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football
Welcome to Wild Card weekend! The stakes ramp up on Saturday as the 2018 edition of the NFL playoffs open in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon. There are some intriguing matchups this weekend which we’ll dive into each a little bit below. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
Tennessee at Kansas City (-8.5, 44)
Vegas Implied Final Score:
Kansas City 26
Tennessee 18
Key Injuries:
- Demarco Murray has been ruled out meaning Derrick Henry will get the majority of touches out of the backfield for the Titans.
- Albert Wilson was nicked up during the win over Denver but all signs point to him playing this week.
DFS Chalk: Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry, Alex Smith, Chiefs Defense
DFS Value: Eric Decker, Delanie Walker, Albert Wilson, Corey Davis, Marcus Mariota
Kansas City has gotten well over the past four weeks after a four-game losing streak nearly derailed their season. The teams they beat during this winning streak? The Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins and Broncos. One winning record out of the bunch. The Titans also stumble into the playoffs having lost three of their final four. Two of those came in Western time zones in hard fought games against Arizona and San Francisco, and they also dropped a close contest at home to the Rams before clinching this spot last week at home against Jacksonville. This matchup looks evenly matched on paper and while chilly, the forecasted 28-degree weather is not awful for offensive players.
Atlanta at Los Angeles (-6.5, 48.5)
Vegas Implied Final Score:
Los Angeles 27.5
Atlanta 22
Key Injuries:
- There are no injuries of significance to monitor in this game.
DFS Chalk: Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Rams Defense, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu
DFS Value: Sammy Watkins, DeVonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Austin Hooper
The biggest DFS decision of the week is whether to fade Todd Gurley, who finished the Regular Season as the top RB in Fantasy Football. He is very expensive across all formats this weekend and has certainly earned his price tag. He will feature on Saturday and his success or lack thereof will likely dictate GPP formats before Sunday games even kick off. Early projected ownership reports have a majority not paying the massive price tag. Personally, I’ve yet to decide which way I’ll end up going but this is likely the central decision to Wildcard DFS. Gurley would need to hit the 25-30 point mark to return GPP value, which while doable, is hardly something to bank on. The Rams defensive weakness is against the run game and I expect the Falcons to attempt to control the ball and play keep away from the Rams in this one. The Rams are legit and are a very dangerous offense capable of taking what the defense gives them.
Carolina at New Orleans (-7, 48.5)
Las Vegas Implied Score:
New Orleans 27.25
Carolina 21.25
Key Injuries:
- The Saints tight end situation is a bit murky, and while a complete potential flier, it might be worth paying attention to.
DFS Chalk: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Greg Olsen, Michael Thomas
DFS Value: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Ted Ginn, Mark Ingram
In our opinion, this sets up as the most interesting game on the weekend slate. These two teams met the first weekend in December with New Orleans prevailing by 10 points. In that game, the Saints ran for 148 yards and Brees threw for 269 yards with Kamara accounting for over 120 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns on 14 touches. In that game, the Panthers defense was visibly frustrated with their inability to wrap up Kamara. The Panthers will have one focus this week and that will be limiting and tackling the Saints lightning bolt offensive weapon. That could open the rest of the field for Brees and his wideouts, which sure seems like a good GPP route. Of course, the Panthers are a talented team very capable of winning and moving on here. Cam is scrambling once again, which makes him an elite option. While the Panthers are lacking at the WR position, Christian McCaffery and a healthy Greg Olsen make up for it. This game is a coin flip and brings plenty of fantasy options with perhaps the best chance of ‘shooting out’.
Buffalo at Jacksonville (-9, 39.5)
Las Vegas Implied Score:
Jacksonville 23.80
Buffalo 16.30
DFS Chalk: LeSean McCoy (if healthy), Leonard Fournette, Jags defense
DFS Value: Kellan Cole, Blake Bortles, Dede Westbrook
LeSean McCoy is likely to give it a go on his bum ankle, and without his presence, the Bills are a tremendous longshot to even threaten the Jaguars in this spot. Many are down on the Jags after a rough finish that saw them drop two in a row to end the season. The Jags are an interesting team heading into the postseason and they do two things well that win Championships. They have the best talent on defense in the AFC and can run the football. The game script here should allow Fournette and the Jags defense to shine all while awarding a home fan base that hasn’t seen a home playoff game in a decade. On paper, the Jags sure look like a team that no one wants to host in the Divisional Round.
OVERALL:
Top DFS Chalk Selections: Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville, Todd Gurley, RB, LA Rams, Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City
Top GPP / Value Selections: Christian McCaffery, RB, Carolina, Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta, Austin Hooper, TE, Atlanta, Eric Decker, WR, Tennessee
Top GPP Contrarian Stack: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Greg Olsen
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16
Tier 1
Only three options in the first tier but the decision will not be an easy one should be running just one lineup this week. Todd Gurley trails Kareem Hunt by just 13 yards rushing this season but has 190 more receiving yards and eight more total touchdowns giving him 25.1 DraftKings points per game this season and right in the middle of the league MVP talks. He is coming off a monster game where he rushed for 152 yards and three touchdowns and also added another touchdown through the air leading the Rams to a huge victory over their division rivals, the Seahawks. Kareem Hunt is also coming off a big game last week with 155 yards rushing and a touchdown and also added nine receptions for 51 yards and a touchdown through the air. It seems the Chiefs just needed to get Andy Reid away from making play calls for Hunt to get back on track as that is now back to back weeks with 100+ yards rushing.
Outside of Week 14 where he got injured, Alvin Kamara has been extremely consistent this season with seven games with 20 or more DraftKings points and sits with 1,336 all-purpose yards and 12 touchdowns. Looking at the matchups, all three of their opponents rank in the top third of the league in rushing yards per game allowed but Tennessee is the only one of the three to hold opponents under 100 yards per game and they also rank 4th overall when looking at DraftKings points per game to running backs.
The game script definitely favors Gurley, however, and he has proven to be near matchup proof at this point. When looking at DraftKings points per game allowed, Hunt has the best matchup of the three as the Dolphins rank 28th in that category and they have also allowed the most rushing yards per game(109.9). The DVOA ranks tell another story as the Falcons rank 30th in that category against the rush which is great news for Kamara who is averaging 6.6 yards per carry this season. The only knock on Kamara is that he is sharing a backfield with Mark Ingram who is also having a heck of a season. Using FanShareSports early in the week, Hunt and Gurley are neck and neck at the top and should command ownership in this tier and for me, I will be running about 45% of each with a little mix of Kamara in some contrarian lineups.
Top Targets in this Tier – Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt
Tier 2
The second tier brings us two of the six running backs in the league who have already broke 1,000 yards rushing this season. I mentioned in the last tier how the Saints have been splitting the reps almost down the middle between rookie Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram and both are having tremendous season leading the Saints to the #1 overall DVOA rank in rushing. While the Falcons rank 12th when looking at DraftKings points allowed to running backs, they have been much worse on the DVOA scale ranking 30th this season. The Saints are currently 5.5 point favorites in a game with a 52.5 Vegas Total which could lead to another run-heavy game script for the Saints. While the game script for LeSean McCoy is not in his favor as the Bills are 11.5 point dogs to the Patriots, he has a lot going for him in this matchup. Both teams rank Top 10 in pace and McCoy always gets his share of touches in the offense regardless of game script. The Patriots have also been pretty bad against running backs as well as they have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game(122.3) and rank dead last in DVOA vs. the rush.
Up next, we have two elite receivers facing each other this week. The bad news for both of them is that both teams rank Top 12 in receiving yards per game and Top 15 in DVOA vs. the pass and both have elite corners in Marshon Lattimore(NO) and Desmond Trufant(ATL) who rank near the top of PFF’s cornerback rankings. The good news is that both receivers are getting targeted a ton in their respective offenses with Julio at 9.0 per game while Thomas is getting 9.7 per game. Julio leads with 1,215 yards while Thomas has 1,085 but Thomas has the slight edge in DraftKings points per game thanks to scoring two more touchdowns. This game is projected to be a shootout and the only game this week with a Vegas Total exceeding 50 so I don’t think you can go wrong with either here in this spot.
Top Targets in this Tier – Micheal Thomas, Mark Ingram
Tier 3
Gronk returned from his one-game suspension last week and went off again posting 168 yards on nine receptions. That gives him back to back weeks with 100 or more receiving yards and three straight weeks with 25 or more DraftKings points. I wouldn’t go as far to say he gets a great matchup this week as the Bills rank 12th in DVOA vs. the pass but have been much worse against tight ends than wideouts as they rank 22nd in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position vs. 9th against wideouts. Gronk is pretty matchup proof as well. The other tight end in this tier, Travis Kelce, sits second to Gronk in receiving yards this season with 991 but has the same amount of touchdowns with seven. He has also slightly out-targeted Gronk this season with 8.1 per game but more importantly this week, he gets a way better matchup. Not only do the Dolphins rank 27th in DVOA vs. the pass but they have been terrible vs. tight ends ranking 28th overall in DraftKings points allowed to the position.
We also get two runnings backs in this tier who have been very productive lately. Kenyan Drake took over the #1 role in the Dolphins backfield when Jay Ajayi was traded to Philly and has heated up lately with 100 yards or a touchdown in four straight games for an average of 22.4 DraftKings points per game. The matchup is a bit tricky this week as the Chiefs do rank 31st in DVOA vs. the rush but 11th in DraftKings points per game to the position. The biggest knock on Drake this week could be the game script as the Dolphins are currently 10 point road underdogs and projected for just over 16 points. Drake will undoubtedly be the lowest owned player in this tier. Melvin Gordon, despite only breaking 100 yds twice this season, has been very productive ranking 7th in rushing yards (931) and has topped 75 yards in three straight games and has scored a touchdown in back to back games. The matchup is so-so as the Jets rank 13th in DVOA vs. the rush and 14th in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs but he should get plenty of volume as the Chargers are 6.5 point favorites and projected to score around 25 points this week.
Top Targets in this Tier – Travis Kelce, Melvin Gordon
Tier 4
All four quarterbacks in this tier are at home and all of them beside Drew Brees are huge double-digit favorites. Looking at each player’s last four weeks performance, it has been Cam Newton and Alex Smith who have been far and away the best quarterbacks as both are averaging over 21 DraftKings points per game. Smith’s performance is a bit skewed as he had a huge week 13 scoring 40.6 DK points but didn’t exceed 20 in either of the other three weeks. Cam has been much more consistent with performances of 31.4, 15.5, 20.4, and 17.5 and he has also topped 20 DK points in 50% of his starts this season. He adds a ton of value using his rushing ability and leads all quarterbacks with 643 yards on the ground with five rushes of 20+ yards and five touchdowns.
Despite struggling recently with just two touchdowns over his last three games, Tom Brady still leads the league in passing while averaging 297 yards per game and trails on Carson Wentz and Russell Wilson in touchdown passes. As for Drew Brees, he has not thrown for 300 yards in four straight weeks and has only done so three times this season while throwing for three touchdowns just once and most of that can be contributed to the elite run game that Saints possess. When it comes down to matchups, Cam Newton clearly gets the best of them facing a Bucs team that has allowed a league-high 271.3 yards and ranks 29th in DVOA vs. the pass. Next best matchup goes to Alex Smith who faces a Dolphins team that sits mid-pack when looking at yards per game allowed (222.6) but ranks 27th in DVOA vs. the pass. Of the four, Tom Brady has the worst matchup on paper going against a Bills defense that ranks 12th in DVOA vs. the pass and 4th overall in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position.
Top Target in this Tier – Cam Newton, Alex Smith
Tier 5
Tier 5 gives us four quarterbacks who are all playing on the road this week and all but Matt Ryan are favorites. Matthew Stafford leads the way this season with 18.8 DraftKings points per game but it has been Phillip Rivers crushing value lately averaging 21.6 DraftKings points per game over his last four thanks to posting 20+ in three of those games. No other quarterback in this tier has more than one and Matt Ryan has zero after back to back performances of under 10 DraftKings points.
Rivers and Goff have the best matchups of the four as the Jets rank 22nd in DVOA vs. the pass and 27th in DK points per game allowed while the Titans rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 17th in DK points per game allowed to the position. Ryan gets the worst matchup in this tier facing the Saints who rank 4th in DVOA vs. the pass and 13thin DK points allowed while Stafford’s matchup is in the middle with the Bengals ranking 18th in DVOA vs. the pass and 11th in DK points allowed to the position but have definitely been trending down lately allowing quarterbacks to score an average of 21.1 DK points per game.
Top Targets in this Tier – Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford
Tier 6
Three of the four wide receivers (Hill, Funchess, Cooks) teams in this tier are double-digit favorites which could work against their game scripts a little bit but it will be hard to avoid some of the matchups. For instance, Devin Funchess faces a Bucs team that has allowed the most DraftKings points per game this season. He could also be lower owned here coming off a one-catch week for just 19 yards. The concern Funchess this week is the shoulder injury that has been nagging him as he was held out of practice on Wednesday. If you are looking for consistency then don’t overlook Tyreke Hill in this spot as he has tallied double-digit DK points in six straight and eight of his last 10 games, twice going over 25 points. Over the past four weeks, he has also seen an uptick in his targets(8 per game) and sees a matchup vs. the Dolphins who rank 27th in DVOA vs. the pass.
On the flip side, Brandin Cooks has been trending down lately averaging just six targets per game and has exceeded 75 yards just once in that time. Robert Woods made his return last week after being held out for three weeks due to injury and looked catching six of his seven targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. The Rams are 6.5 point favorites and although Todd Gurley has been red hot, they may need to throw a bit more as the Titans have been much worse against the pass this season ranking 24th in DVOA and 23rd in DraftKings points per game to wideouts.
Both running backs in this tier are in great spots this week as their teams (Panthers, Patriots) are both double-digit home favorites. Dion Lewis is likely in for a bit bigger role this week with Rex Burkhead out a couple weeks with a knee sprain. That is good news considering he has already been getting a nice run with double-digit carries in eight of his last nine games. He also gets an elite matchup vs. the Bills who have allowed 122 rushing yards per game (8th most) and the most DraftKings points per game to running backs this season. Christian McCaffrey leads all running backs with an average of 7.2 targets per game and has been a PPR star with double-digit fantasy points in 11 of his 14 games, going over 20 DK points five times.
Top Targets in this Tier – Dion Lewis, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreke Hill
Tier 7
I will start with the wideouts in this tier and not only does Jarvis Landry lead them all with an average of 16.3 DK points per game this season, he also gets the best matchup this week. He will be facing the Chiefs who have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game and while they rank 17th in DVOA vs. pass, they rank 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wide receivers. You also never have to worry about usage with Landry as he is one of just three players in 2017 to average double-digit targets each week (10.3).
The Bengals top wideout, A.J. Green, is not far behind averaging 8.8 targets per game and has been trending up lately with 10 targets per game over his last four but is coming off a down week where Xavier Rhodes shut him down with just two catches for 30 yards. Things don’t get any easier for Green this week as he will likely see a ton of Darius Slay who ranks as a Top 10 corner on Pro Football Focus.
On the other side of the ball, we have Marvin Jones Jr. who has been extremely consistent lately recording double-digit fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games with 20 or more in four of those games. While the Bengals rank 3rd in DK points per game allowed to wideouts, they have struggled a ton lately allowing a 100-yard receiver in three straight weeks (four total). Josh Gordon has been targeted 27 times in his three games since returning to the Browns and scored once but has yet to have that monster game we are all waiting for, maybe it’s the fact he is now playing sober (boom).
With Tevin Coleman out last week, Devonta Freeman got 24 carries but wasn’t overly impressive with 91 yards (3.8 per carry) but saved his fantasy day with a touchdown. This week it appears Coleman will be back in the mix which will limit Freeman’s carries but the Falcons are currently underdogs which could help him with some targets in the passing game. Jordan Howard has been up and down all season with four performances of 20+ DK points but has also put up six performances under 10 DK points. This week he faces a Browns team that ranks #1 in DVOA vs. the rush but have been trending down lately. The game script could definitely be in his favor as the Bears are currently 6.5 point favorites.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jarvis Landry, Marvin Jones Jr, Jordan Howard
Tier 8
While Marvin Jones has been the consistent piece of the Lions receiving core, Golden Tate has been hit and miss. He has tallied double-digit DK points twice in his last four games but also posted six DK points in the other two games. I mentioned the matchup earlier vs. the Bengals who have allowed four 100-yard receivers in the last three weeks so Tate is fully in play this week.
Robby Anderson was limited in Wednesday’s practice and even if he plays, he should be avoided as he is likely shadowed by PFF’s #1 ranked corner in Casey Hayward. Demaryius Thomas is on my radar this week and has been fairly productive lately catching 20 of his 38 targets for 207 yards and a touchdown. The problem this week is the matchup vs. the Redskins who rank 8th in DVOA vs. the pass and 8th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts.
Cooper Kupp has not been the most consistent fantasy option this season and a lot of that has to do with Todd Gurley running over defenses but Kupp is in a nice spot this week vs. the Titans who rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 23rd in DK points allowed to wideouts. With Julio Jones normally getting a ton of the opposing defenses attention, Mohamed Sanu has thrived on the other side lately with 20+ DK points in two of his last three games. Stay tuned for the injury status, however, as he was limited on Wednesday with a knee injury.
Bengals rookie running back, Joe Mixon, was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and likely to be cleared by the league to return this week. Should he get back on the field, he gets a nice matchup vs. the Lions who have allowed 111 yards rushing per game and rank 29th overall in DK points per game allowed to running backs.
Top Targets in this Tier – Golden Tate, Cooper Kupp, Joe Mixon(if he starts)
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14
Tier 1
While the Chiefs picked up their fourth loss in a row, both Travis Kelce (4 of 8, 94 yards, 2 TD) and Tyreke Hill (6 of 9, 185 yards, 2 TD) had monster fantasy days last week vs. the Jets. This week they get another plus matchup vs. a Raiders defense that has given up the 10th most passing yards per game (241.1) and rank dead last in DVOA vs. the pass in 2017. They share the targets from Alex Smith pretty equally but I favor Kelce slightly here as the Raiders rank 15th in DraftKings points per game to wide receivers but 26th vs. tight ends. Adam Thielen sits sixth overall in targets per game(9.3) this season and has been incredibly consistent with seven games with double-digit fantasy points and six with 15+ points but draws a tough matchup against the Panthers defense that ranks eighth in DVOA vs. the pass. The game also has one of the lowest totals(41) of the week. All things considered, Thielen could be the low owned play in this tier. Finally, we have LeSean McCoy who had another productive week as he posted 93 yards on 15 carries and his third straight double-digit fantasy week. At the time of writing this, there is no Vegas total yet but I would fully expect the Bills to be at least three-point home favorites vs. the Colts giving McCoy a shot at a high workload this week.
Top Targets in this Tier – Travis Kelce, LeSean McCoy
Tier 2
Marvin Jones easily gets the best matchup in this tier facing the Bucs who have allowed the second-most passing yards per game (267.3) and rank dead last in DraftKings points per game to wideouts. The issue this week is the status of his quarterback Matthew Stafford who left last weeks game with a hand injury after being stepped on. If Stafford is back behind center I like Jones a lot but will probably fade if it’s backup Jake Rudock taking the snaps. I have strong feeling A.J. Green will be the chalk in this tier coming off a big game vs. the Steelers on Monday night where he caught seven of his 16 targets for 77 yards and two touchdowns (could have been three if not for a bad penalty). He has now caught at least one touchdown in three of his last four and seven of his last 10 games. Jameis Winston returned to action last week and I was expecting a big game from Evans who has been a target monster all season but it never came to fruition as Evans only caught two of his six targets for 33 yards. Evans will be in a tough spot this week as he will likely draw shadow coverage from Darius Slay who ranks as the #12 cornerback on PFF. If he was somehow able to avoid complete shadow coverage, I think he could be a sneaky play as the Lions have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game(245.3) this season. Michael Crabtree returns from his one-game suspension this week and gets a plus matchup against the Chiefs who rank 24th overall in DVOA vs. the pass and 31st in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. The Raiders are also four-point underdogs so the game script could be perfect for Derek Carr to see 35+ pass attempts.
Top Targets in this Tier – A.J. Green, Michael Crabtree
Tier 3
Kareem Hunt was once again unable to take advantage of a plus matchup and will easily be the lowest owned option in this tier as I am sure most people(including myself) are tired of waiting for the return of his early-season success. Devante Adams has been Brett Hundley’s top target but the passing game was not needed last week in a 26-20 win over the Bucs as the Packers rushed for 199 yards and picked up two defensive touchdowns. Look for Adams to get back on track this week against the Browns who rank 26th in DVOA vs. the pass. I talked about Marvin Jones in the last tier and the same sentiment goes for Golden Tate. He has a great matchup against the Bucs but at this time it is uncertain if Matthew Stafford will be back with an injured throwing hand. Stay tuned for more news. Josh Gordon made his return to the football field last week and was impressive considering he sat out nearly three years. He promptly made a ridiculous catch along the sideline and ended up catching four of his team-high 11 targets for 85 yards. This week he faces a Green Bay team that has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game(242.9), rank 21st in DVOA vs. the pass, and rank 29th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts.
Top Targets in this Tier – Devante Adams, Josh Gordon
Tier 4
I mentioned Matthew Stafford in previous tiers when talking about Marvin Jones and Golden Tate and the update here is that he was limited Wednesday with his bruised hand. He is one of the toughest players in the league and a must-win for the team so I expect to see him on the field but will be avoiding the Lions offense for fantasy. Next up we have a huge matchup between the Vikings and Panthers and very similar value coming from both quarterbacks. Both Cam Newton and Case Keenum have put up 17+ DraftKings points in four straight games but Cam has displayed a little more upside with a 35 point ceiling. A lot of that has to do with his ability to run the ball, especially around the endzone. Both defenses are stout and rank Top 10 in fantasy points against the quarterback and with playoff and top seeds on the line, I fully expect a low-scoring defensive battle on Sunday so neither QB is that intriguing for fantasy. Without Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree last week, Derek Carr was very serviceable(22 of 36 for 287 and 1 TD) leading the Raiders to a big win over the Giants. He now gets both his receivers back and will face a Chiefs team that has given up the fifth-most passing yards per game(252.8) and rank 26th overall when looking at DraftKings points per game to the position. Finally, we have Jimmy Garoppolo who gets the best matchup of all the options in this tier as the Texans rank dead last in DraftKings points per game allowed to the quarterback. The only issue here is that it’s his second career start and he lacks options in the receiving game.
Top Target in this Tier – Derek Carr
Tier 5
Starting at the top Dak Prescott has been the best option on paper in this tier with five games of 20+ DraftKings points and has thrown for multiple touchdowns seven times. The issue has been the loss of Ezekiel Elliot as he has only done it once since losing his star running back. He does get a nice matchup this week vs. a Giants team that has given up the third-most passing yards per game(260.2) and rank 30th in DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks. I fully expect 250+ passing yards and multiple touchdown passes as the Cowboys still sit in a position to grab a wildcard spot. Next up is my other top option under center this week with Jameis Winston who returned after a three-week absence. He looked pretty darn good completing 21 of 32 passes for 270 yards and two touchdowns. He did this without really getting much from Mike Evans(2 of 6 for 33 yards) and I think he will be going back to his top option this week with a ton of volume. Believe it or not, Andy Dalton has arguably been the most consistent option in this tier lately with multiple touchdowns in four straight and six of his last seven starts. The only issue is the upside is limited as he thrown for 300+ yards and topped 20 fantasy points just once this season. I don’t really have strong feelings for any of the bottom three options but if I had to choose one of them it would be Deshone Kizer who now has the services of Josh Gordon who made his return last week and was heavily targeted and delivered with 85 yards. Despite being inconsistent and inaccurate (52.5% completions), Kizer has shown some upside with his legs and topped 20 fantasy points twice in his last four starts. This week he faces a Green Bay team that has given up the seventh-most passing yards per game(242.9) and rank 19th in DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jameis Winston, Deshone Kizer
Tier 6
If you are looking for volume, it will be impossible to ignore what Evan Engram has been doing. Over the last seven games, he has tallied 59 targets and recorded 15 or more fantasy points five times with a season-high 22.9 points last week with Geno Smith under center. This week he gets Eli Manning back and with Sterling Shepard banged up, should once again see lots of volume. Christian McCaffrey should also see a ton of volume this week for two reasons. First of all, Jonathan Stewart is banged up(toe, ankle, foot) and didn’t practice Wednesday. Second, the Vikings defense should have a nice handle on the passing game downfield meaning we could see Cam dump it off to the running back quite a bit this week. Lamar Miller has been a bit of a disappointment from an upside standpoint this season but has displayed a consistent floor with 50+ rushing yards in all but one game and double-digit DraftKings points in all but two games this season. He gets a near elite matchup this week vs. the 49ers who have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game(123.9) and rank 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs. Jamaal Williams has taken over as the Packers #1 back lately with 20+ rushing attempts in three of his last four games and broke the 100-yard mark last week vs. the Bucs. He has also scored in back to back games. The matchup is a downgrade this week as the Browns have actually been really good against the rush as they are one of just nine teams to allow under 100 yards per game for the season. Alfred Morris has also done a fine job as a backup who has stepped in due to the suspension to Ezekiel Elliot. He is coming off his best game of the season last week when he received 27 rushing attempts and posted 127 yards and a touchdown. He will likely see the same kind of volume this week against a Giants defense that has allowed a league-high 130.7 yards per game on the ground.
Top Targets in this Tier – Evan Engram, Alfred Morris, Christian McCaffrey
Tier 7
A couple things stand out in this tier starting with the matchup for Devin Funchess. He will be shadowed for most of the game by Xavier Rhodes who is coming off a terrific game against the Falcons as he completely shut down Julio Jones. The other note here is the that Amari Cooper cleared the concussion protocol but still missed Wednesday’s practice due to an ankle injury and is still listed as questionable. If he were to suit up and get on the field, I like him for a low owned option. Carlos Hyde does not get the greatest matchup as the Texans have allowed the 10th fewest rushing yards per game and rank 4th in DraftKings points allowed to backs but he does have somewhat of a safe floor as he has been targeted a ton lately with 49 over his last six games. He has also put up double-digit fantasy points in nine of his 12 games this season and 20 or more four times. Marshawn Lynch is another running back on my radar this week as he is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season and he has scored in three of his last four games. He also gets a plus matchup vs. the Chiefs who have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (129.4).
Top Targets in this Tier – Marshawn Lynch, Carlos Hyde
Tier 8
The hamstring injury for Sterling Shepard is something to monitor as Sunday approaches as he did not practice on Wednesday. If he suits up he gets a nice matchup vs. the Cowboys who rank 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. Jordan Howard failed to bounce back last week as he tallied just 38 yards on the ground but gets another nice matchup to get back on the horse facing a Bengals defense that has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game(123.8) and ranks 22nd in DraftKings points per game to running backs. The only issue here might be getting a score as this game has the lowest Vegas total of the week(38). Duke Johnson let us down last week with just three DK points but has been a consistent floor play all season with eight double-digit DK point games thanks to his target share in the offense. The Vikings running backs have a tough matchup this week facing a Panthers team who has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game(88.6) so I would lean McKinnon who leads the way in the passing game between him and Latavius Murray with an average of 4.5 per game on the season. Both tight ends get plus matchups this week as the Bills rank 24th and the Giants 31st in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. I lean Jack Doyle here as he comes in ahead with 6.8 targets per game to Witten’s 5.7 and Doyle has also tallied double-digit DK points in four of his last six games.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jordan Howard, Jack Doyle, Duke Johnson
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 13
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 13
Tier 1
As it does every week, the first tier presents some very tough decisions. DeAndre Hopkins leads the way with 21.3 DraftKings points per game this season while averaging a crazy 11.4 targets per game, trailing only Antonio Brown in that category. Despite losing his star quarterback, Hopkins is also just one of four wideouts with 1,000 or more yards this season and since Watson went down in week 8 has gained 75 or more yards in all four games with 100 or more twice. Hopkins also gets the best matchup of the three wideouts facing a Titans team that ranks 24th in DVOA vs. pass and 26th in DK points per game allowed to the position. Sticking with the wideouts, the other target monster in this tier has been Adam Thielen who is tied for fourth with 9.7 per game and is one of those four wideouts with 1,000 or more receiving yards this season. The only issue for the Thielen and the Vikings passing attack is the Falcons defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per game(207.9) and DK points per game to allowed to wideouts. Brandin Cooks has only seen double-digit targets once this season but has been coming on strong recently with 74 or more yards in three straight games and has scored a touchdown in back to back games. Cooks also gets a tough matchup this week vs. the Bills defense that has held opponents under 200 yards passing in three of their last four games and rank 11thin DVOA vs. the pass overall but the good news is that Cooks has the GOAT, Tom Brady, throwing him passes. Next up, we have Leonard Fournette who has shown us signs of dominance with four 100+ yard games this season and signs of being shut down as he has been held under 50 yards three including twice in the last three weeks. This week he should most definitely be on your radar as the Jags are at home vs. a Colts team that has been decent vs. the run ranked 11th in DVOA but has allowed the seventh-most DK points per game to running backs thanks to 572 yards allowed through the air(4th worst).
Top Targets in this Tier – Leonard Fournette, Brandin Cooks
Tier 2
I am going to start with the tight ends here in the second tier. We have two elite options in Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce but they are in completely different situations. Gronk is coming off a big week where he caught five of his eight targets for 82 yards and scored two touchdowns while Kelce was a product of a struggling Chiefs offense as he caught three of four targets for just 39 yards last week. They both get decent matchups vs. teams allowing 11 or more DK points per game to the position but Kelce gets the slight edge as the Jets have been worse overall ranking 21st in DVOA vs. the pass while the Bills rank 11th. Ownership will definitely lean towards Gronk here because of last week’s numbers and while a player’s past performance vs. a team is somewhat irrelevant as players and systems change over the years, this stat is just amazing to look at (via @evansilva).
Rob Gronkowski, who is from Buffalo, has played 6 career games @ BUF. His stat lines:
5/109/1
7/113/1
7/94/0
5/104/1
7/109/2
4/54/2— Evan Silva (@evansilva) November 27, 2017
After the tight ends, we have running back LeSean Mccoy who has a nice matchup vs. the Patriots who have allowed 115.1 rush yards per game and rank 29th in DVOA vs. the rush. The game script isn’t exactly in his favor as the Bills are 7.5 point dogs but and even worse, McCoy’s targets have been going down lately with five or less in four straight games including two weeks where he saw just one target. Despite leading all players in this tier with 17.2 DK points per week, he will likely be the lowest owned and makes a contrarian option. Wideout Mike Evans has been a target monster all season, with or without Jameis Winston, and has received double-digits in four of his last five games. He has tallied 75 or more yards receiving in five of his 10 games this season but has failed to break the 100-yard mark to this point. The good news is that quarterback Jameis Winston has resumed throwing and could make the start this week vs. the Packers who have allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game, rank 22nd in DVOA vs. the pass, and have allowed the second-most DK points per game to wideouts.
Top Targets in this Tier – Rob Gronkowski, Mike Evans
Tier 3
I was all over Kareem Hunt last week in a great bounce-back spot and he continued to disappoint fantasy owners with 11 carries for 17 yards. That makes six straight weeks without a 100-yard game and eight straight games without a touchdown. While the matchup seems decent facing the Jets who are allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game(120.4) it isn’t the greatest from a fantasy perspective as they rank 8th overall in DK points per game allowed to running backs as they have done well limiting the touchdowns. Tevin Coleman has been excellent lately with touchdowns in five straight games but will not only see his backfield partner, Devonta Freeman, back on the field this week but will also face a tough Vikings defense that has allowed the least DraftKings points per game to running backs. Jordan Howard might see some lower than normal ownership this week after a brutal game against the Eagles where he rushed for just six yards, albeit the Bears were trailing the entire game. He gets an elite matchup against the 49ers who have given up the third-most rushing yards per game(129.5) and rank dead last in DK points per game allowed to running backs.
If you are looking to go the wide receiver route in this tier, there are two excellent options in Davante Adams and Robbie Anderson. Anderson has been incredibly consistent with at least one touchdown in five straight games and double-digit DraftKings points in six straight games. He faces a Chiefs defense that has fallen off big time this season(Eric Berry effect) and has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game(245.6) and have allowed the most DraftKings points per game to wideouts. Ever since Aaron Rodgers went down in Green Bay, Davante Adams has emerged as backup quarterback Brett Hundley’s favorite option as he leads the team in that time with 52 targets, three touchdowns, and three straight games with 80 or more yards. He gts an even better matchup than Anderson facing the Bucs who have allowed a league-high 284.6 passing yards per game and the most DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jordan Howard, Robby Anderson
Tier 4
First of all, let’s touch on Matt Stafford who had his ankle rolled up on during the Thanksgiving game vs. the Vikings. He returned to the game but looked in pain but said this week it is feeling better. He will most likely play this week but gets the worst matchup of this group facing a Ravens team that has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game(189.9) and also the second-fewest DraftKings points per game. Best to fade Stafford and the Lions this week. The next toughest matchup in this group is Matt Ryan who is coming off his third 300+ yard game of the season but will face a Vikings defense that has allowed the 11th fewest passing yards per game(214.9) and sixth-fewest DraftKings points per game allowed to the quarterback position.On the other side of the ball, we have one of the biggest surprises of the season in Case Keenum who has gotten better each week and has thrown for 280+ yards in four straight games with nine touchdowns. He also gets a tougher matchup on the road this week facing the Falcons defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per game(207.9). Despite leading this tier in DraftKings points per game, Alex Smith is likely to be a contrarian play this week after struggling big time lately after an MVP-type start to the season. Over his last four games, he has averaged just 223.5 passing yards per game and thrown for just four touchdowns. The matchup is average as he faces a Jets team ranked in the middle of the pack in passing yards per game and 19th in DraftKings points per game. The positive for Smith is that he has two elite options in Travis Kelce and Tyreke Hill so I could definitely see a bounce back game here. Next up is Josh McCown coming off his biggest game of the year where he threw for 307 yards and three touchdowns and makes a terrific stack with Robby Anderson in the previous tier. The quarterback with the best matchup in this group is Marcus Mariota who faces a Texans defense that allows 243 passing yards per game(24th) and ranks dead last in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. The issue with Mariota is that he has only topped 300 yards twice this season and he has also only thrown for multiple touchdowns twice.
Top Targets in this Tier – Josh McCown, Alex Smith
Tier 5
Let’s address the Tampa Bay quarterback situation right off the top. It will be Jameis Winston making his return to action this week after sitting out three straight games with a shoulder injury. This is definitely an upgrade for Mike Evans in the first tier and a great matchup as the Packers defense has allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game(244.1) and don’t have one cornerback ranked inside the Top 80 on the PFF rankings. It won’t be a safe option stacking Winston and Evans but the upside is through the roof. If you are not playing Winston in this tier the options are pretty thin and even riskier. Blake Bortles get a great matchup vs. the Colts who have allowed the third-most passing yards per game(266.3) but the Jags are big favorites and most likely won’t need Bortles to do much. Then we got Tyrod Taylor who lacks overall upside averaging just 184 passing yards per game but he does give us added value with his legs as he ranks third in rushing among quarterbacks with 302 yards and three touchdowns. The thing I like the most here is that Bills are underdogs and will need Taylor to likely throw or run a little bit more this week to keep up with Tom Brady and the Pats. Brett Hundley is also in a pretty nice spot this week in a tight spread at home vs. the Bucs and is coming off his best game since taking over for the injured Aaron Rodgers. He put up 245 yards and three touchdowns vs. a tough Steelers defense and now gets a prime matchup vs. a Bucs defense that has allowed a league-high 284.6 passing yards per game and the sixth-most DraftKings points per game to the position. Finally, we have Jimmy Garoppolo making his first start of the season and it will be tough to tell what we are going to get. He made a final drive appearance last week and completed both of his passes with a touchdown in garbage time but now goes on the road to Chicago to face a defense ranked eighth overall in DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jameis Winston, Brett Hundley
Tier 6
From a PPR perspective, I love what Carlos Hyde brings to the table this season as he trails only Christian McCaffrey and Le’Veon Bell in targets with 73 on the season(6.6 per game). This is great news for quarterback Jimmy G making his first start of the season. Hyde has also rushed the ball pretty well this season despite the lack of total yards(game script issues as 49ers are not a good team) as he is averaging 4.1 yards per attempt and while he also shown us his upside with two multi-touchdown games. Marvin Jones gets a tough matchup vs. a Ravens defense that ranks third in DraftKings points allowed to wideouts but he has been dealing with tough matchup pretty well this season and is coming off a huge Thanksgiving game vs. the Vikings Xavier Rhodes as he totaled 109 yards and two touchdowns. He has scored at least one touchdown in three of his last four games(five total). I prefer him over his teammate Golden Tate. Tyreke Hill has been a product of a struggling Chiefs offense and I thought last week he was going to breakout but he was unable to do much with his 11 targets as he caught seven of them for just 41 yards. I am going back to the well again this week with Hill as he gets another good matchup vs. the Jets who rank 21st in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. Stefon Diggs has been average this season as he has somewhat taken a backseat to Adam Thielen who has been getting the better matchups out of the slot and has become Case Keenum’s favorite target. Lamar Miller has somewhat disappointed this season, from a rushing standpoint, averaging 3.7 yards per carry with three touchdowns but has made up his value receiving with another three touchdowns and has tallied double-digit DraftKings points in all but two games. The issue this week is that he is dealing with a knee inury and was absent from Wednesday’s practice. Stay tuned for the Texans late-week injury status report.
Top Targets in this Tier – Carlos Hyde, Marvin Jones Jr, Tyreke Hill
Tier 7
There is a lot to like about Jarvis Landry in this tier as he not only sits third overall in targets per game(10.6) but has scored a touchdown in six of his last eight games. The matchup is a big downgrade this week vs. the Broncos who rank fourth in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts but looking at DVOA they rank outside the top half of the league in 19th. I think the matchup helps keep him a bit lower owned than he should be this week. Mohamed Sanu is coming off a pretty big game last week as he not only caught eight of his nine targets for 64 yards but he also completed a 51-yard touchdown pass to Julio Jones. I don’t see the trickery happening this week but I do like the matchup as Julio Jones will be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes with help over the top leaving Sanu to go up against Terrance Newman for most of his snaps. Next up, we got Rex Burkhead who was out-carried 15-12 by Dion Lewis while Lewis also gained 112 yards to Burkhead’s 50 but it was Burkhead getting the scores, one on the ground and one through the air. The risk is there with both Pats running backs but they also have upside and should be low owned because of it. My suggestion would be to build multiple lineups with your favorite plays in other tiers and split the backs in this tier into a couple lineups.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jarvis Landry, Mohamed Sanu, Dion Lewis
Tier 8
Demaryius Thomas has been getting his share of targets this season(8.8 per game) and leads the team but will be hard to trust with the carousel of quarterbacks in Denver. The matchup is a tough one to read as the Dolphins corners rank poorly on PFF’s rankings and have allowed 11 touchdowns to wideouts this season(11th most) but they also have allowed the 11th fewest DK points per game as they have done a good job limiting the overall yardage. I think it has a lot to do with teams running the ball on them regularly. After last week’s stink by Thomas, I think he could go low-owned this week. All aboard! Jerick McKinnon sits second in average DK points per game this season in this tier but has been trending down lately with Latavius Murray averaging over four yards per attempt in three straight games while also adding four touchdowns. His teammate, tight end Kyle Rudolph, has been playing well lately catching 20 of his 25 targets over the past four games with three touchdowns and has recorded double-digit DK points in three of those four games. The issue this week is the tough matchup as he is likely to see a ton of coverage from Keanu Neal who ranks as one of the top safeties/linebackers who takes on tight ends in coverage. DeMarco Murray is a huge risk splitting time with Derrick Henry and has failed to break 20 yards rushing in three of his last four games despite getting the goal line carries and three scores. I will be avoiding this week. The other play I am looking at in this tier is Kenyan Drake despite the tough matchup as he is likely to get a heavy workload with Damian Williams likely out with a shoulder injury.
Top Targets in this Tier – Demaryius Thomas, Kenyan Drake
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!