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Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 11

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 11

Week 11 means we’ve made it to the end of the bye weeks! Only four teams are on bye this week, and they are the 49ers, Jets, Colts, and the Panthers. We typically three of those four defenses for Quarterbacks but this week we have a fair amount of options on the Draftkings main slate. A big note for this slate is that the Patriots and Raiders game will be played in Mexico City where the stadium sits over 7,000 feet above sea level. There could be a chance that players get tired as the game progresses.

The Draftkings main slate is without a few really good games this week, which means the PrimeTime slate should be a lot of fun this week. The Sunday Night Football game features the 1st seed Eagles at Dallas in a division rivalry, while the Monday Night game has the Falcons going to Seattle.

 

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Vegas:

Since Vegas has become such a huge part of the DFS community and is where most DFS players start their research, I decided to write up a portion outlining the big Vegas numbers. All Vegas totals will be taken from Fantasy Labs Vegas page on Wednesday.

This week there are currently two games with a game total over 50 with the Patriots and the Raiders sitting at 53.5 and the Redskins at the Saints sitting at 51. These two games are above the rest of the pack with three games sitting with a total over 44. The Bills at Chargers (44), Chiefs at Giants (45), and the Rams at Vikings (45.5).

There are three games that Vegas has as over a touchdown favorite. The Chiefs led the way with as 10 ½ point favorite over the Giants, The Saints and Jags are tied for second on the main slate with a 7.5 point edge over the Redskins and the Browns, respectively. And the Patriots are 7 point favorites against the Raiders. There are four teams with implied team totals over 24 points. The Chargers (24), Vikings (24), Chiefs (27.75), Saints (29.25), and the Patriots (30.25).

I encourage you to check out the Fantasy Labs page on Sunday morning to see if there are any drastic changes to these game totals. Of course, Lineup Labs subs have access to this information in the player pool. Let’s dive into the slate.

Quarterbacks:

Alex Smith

This is a pretty good week for Quarterbacks. There are plenty of good options at the high priced tier, and a few good value plays. Starting with Drew Brees.

Drew Brees (DK $ 6,800) – Brees is the 2nd highest priced quarterback on the DK main slate. Brees is in an ideal spot as a home favorite with a high team total (29.25) and a high total (51). Brees has historically done well at home and Washington ranks in the middle of the pack in aFPA to quarterbacks this season. Brees will likely be one of the most popular quarterbacks on the slate with his price reaching a season-low 6.8K. The concern here is that the Saints are not the same Saints team that we could on to throw the ball 40-50 times per game. The Saints are passing the ball only 52% of the time this season compared to 64% of the time last season. Brees has not attempted over 30 passes since week 7 against the Packers. Brees is always a threat to have a huge game at home. He will be popular so fade him at your own risk.

Alex Smith (DK $6,700) – If you are fading Brees, don’t overlook Alex Smith. Smith is about the same price as Brees and has similar Vegas numbers. Chiefs are big favorites (10.5), have a high total (27.75), and are facing a putrid Giants defense that just allowed CJ Bethard to score 26 DK points against them. The Giants are 30th in the league in aFPA to quarterbacks this season and have gotten burned by Jared Goff, Russell Wilson (on the road), Trevor Siemian, Philip Rivers, and Jameis Winston the past six weeks. This Giants team is #bad, and the Chiefs will have no problem with them coming off of a bye (Andy Reid is 16-2 lifetime coming off of a bye). I’d lean more on Smith than Brees because the Chiefs have a 57% rate and Smith provides some rushing upside. Smith is my favorite QB this week.

Blaine Gabbert (DK $4,900) *expected to start* – I know, you probably threw up in your mouth and are skipping over this section. But Gabbert is getting his first start of the season against the Texans. The Texans rank 29th in aFPA allowed and have been burned for more than 20 points in four of the past five weeks by quarterbacks. Gabbert looked okay this past preseason, completing 61% of his passes and a QBR of 85.9. Bottomline is you’re probably not going to roster Gabbert here, but he’s super cheap and is going up against a bad Texans’ defense and has plenty of weapons to make plays for him.

Cash:

Smith, Brees, Brady, Carr

GPP:

(Above) Cousins, Rivers (if active), Cutler, Gabbert

 

Running back:

Alvin Kamara

There isn’t a clear standout running back on this slate, so there isn’t an incredibly priced up player like we saw last week at $9,800. This week Gurley (8.4K) is the highest priced back and Fournette (8.2K), Ingram (8.1K), and Hunt (8K) all round out the $8,000 range.

Leonard Fournette (DK $8,200) – Fournette burned me last week in his first game back. He was in an ideal spot and threw up a complete dud in my lineups. I generally don’t like playing running backs against the Browns, but this is a situation where I’m watching the weather very closely. Winds are expected to reach upwards of 20MPH on Sunday in Cleveland, and the Jags already hate putting the ball in Blake Bortles’ hand. The Jags run a league-high 51% of the time and are 7 ½ points favorites. If the weather holds up as it looks right now, this could be a sluggish game that Fournette ends up touching the ball around 30 times.

Kareem Hunt (DK $8,000) – I think Hunt will be the most popular top priced running back of the four mentioned above. The Giants rank 27th in aFPA for running backs and Kareem Hunt is a huge favorite with one of the highest implied team total. He’s not a bad play by any means, I just really like getting my exposure to this Chiefs offense through the passing attack. Also, I’ve seen Hunt turn into a 2-down back and be replaced by Charcandrick West more than I’m comfortable. In the Chiefs, las game Hunt saw his snap count dip from 67% to 54%. He still got 5 targets in the game, but only touched the ball 13 times. I understand that Hunt is in a good spot, I just like the passing attack more for KC. This could be a week that I venture away from the top priced running backs.

Alvin Kamara (DK $7,500) – Kamara just might be my favorite running back this week. He’s $600 cheaper than Mark Ingram and gives me exposure to both the Saints passing and rushing attacks. The past two weeks Kamara is only playing in 39% of the snaps but is receiving 92% of the targets out of the backfield. He’s combined for 40% of the running back targets with 33 compared to Ingram’s 38. Although the snaps are quite even, Brees looks to Kamara often, and on a PPR format like DK, Kamara only needs about 5 catches for 50 yards to put him on pace to reach value.

Rex Burkhead ($3,600), Dion Lewis ($4,200), James White ($4,700) – The trio of Patriots running backs are going to be somewhat popular. Burkhead might carry the highest ownership with his 3.6K price tag. But to try to figure out which running back, Bill Belichick will use, is anyone’s guess. Last week Burkhead led the three backs in snaps with 51% (Lewis 30%, White 16%, Bolden 3%). Lewis led the team in rushing attempts with 50% (Burkhead 36%, White 7%, Bolden 7%). Burkhead was tied with White in targets with 3 targets apiece (Lewis had 0). At the end of all this the touches brokedown this way – Lewis 14 touches, Burkhead 13, White 5, and Bolden 2. Like I said, anyone’s guess who will emerge here. I’d imagine Burkhead would be the best player because of his ability to catch and rush the ball, along with his low price. But it’s very tough.

Cash:

T. Gurley, L. Fournette, K. Hunt, M.Ingram, A. Kamara, M. Gordon, R. Burkhead

GPP:

(All Above), C. Thompson, Pats RBs, K. Drake

Wide Receivers:

Sterling Shepard

Michael Thomas (DK $ 7,400) – Thomas is the second highest price wide receiver and will be popular. He’s going to be the conventional stack with Brees. Thomas is 7th in the league with 83 targets, averaging over 9 targets per game. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 4 against so we can expect some positive regression for him. The one concern some people may have in rostering him could be ill-advised. People might be concerned that Josh Norman could shadow him, but that is not expected to be the case here. Josh Norman does not shadow receivers and has played all, but a handful of plays on the left side of the defense.75% of Thomas’ snaps are on the right side of the formation so he should avoid Norman for most of the game.

Sterling Shepard (DK $6,300) – Another popular play here with Shepard coming off of a 13 target game and 28 DK points. Shepard has received 22 targets in his last two games and had turned that into some good production (16 catches, 212 yards, 40.2 DK points). The Giants are likely going to be trailing, which will force Eli to throw the ball upwards of 30 times, and that means Shephard is likely to see 10+ targets again. The Chiefs are 31st aFPA to wide receivers so he should be a lock for cash games. His price continues to rise with his production as of late, but you’re looking at a receiver with a floor of 5 catches and 70 yards.

Tyreek Hill (DK $7,100) – This middle tier price range will be popular this week, especially without a clear stud to pay up for. Hill is typically more of a tournament play than a cash game play, but the matchup lines up perfectly for him this week. The Giants are one of the worst teams in the league at giving up the deep ball, and that fits perfectly into Hill’s game. Hill doesn’t have an exceptionally high floor, but his ceiling is the perfect play for tournaments.

Michael Crabtree (DK $6,600) & Amari Cooper ($6,000) – Going a little cheaper from the guys mentioned above, you can’t go wrong with either of the top two receivers for the Raiders. The Raiders are a touchdown underdog in the game with the highest total between two offenses that have the firepower to put up points. We’ve seen Derrick Carr eclipse more than 30 attempts in each of his last four games, including two game of over 49. It’s easy to see the Raiders airing the ball out to either keep up with the Pats or maintain a lead. If Carr is likely to throw 45+ times, these two could be in store for 10+ targets each against a Patriots defense that is much improved but still ranks 29th aFPA to wide receivers.

Value

Jeremy Maclin (DK $4,500) – Maclin caught 8 of his 9 targets last week for 98 yards against the Titans. This week he faces the Packers who rank 28th in aFPA to wide receivers this season.

Bruce Ellington (DK $3,000) – Ellington stepped in for an injured Will Fuller and caught 4 of his 8 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. Ellington is going to face the 2nd corner with Patrick Peterson likely to follow DeAndre Hopkins all over the field.

Cash:

M. Thomas, S. Shepard, T. Hill, A. Cooper, J. Maclin, B. Cooks

GPP:

(All of the Above) D. Hopkins (too cheap), M. Wallace, M. Crabtree, E. Sanders, K. Allen, M. Evans, A. Thielen.

Tight End:

Travis Kelce

The top-priced tight ends are all in great spots (Kelce, Gronk, Engram). If you can fit one into your lineup, they are the clear top plays of the slate.

Tyler Kroft (DK $2,900) – A nice salary put here. Kroft has done a great job exceeding value since Tyler Eifert went down for the season. This week we get him at a discount after a poor performance in week 10. He faces the Broncos who have a tight end funnel pass defense and rank 30th in aFPA against tight ends. Kroft has scored at least 9 DK points in 3 of his last 4 games.

Martellus Bennett (DK $2,800) – Bennett could be a sneaky pivot off of Gronk. In only a short period time with the Pats, Bennett caught all 3 of his targets for 38 yards last week. You don’t need much at 2.8K, a touchdown and 20 yards will give you a little more than 3X

Cash:

T. Kelce, R. Gronkowski, E. Engram, V. Davis (if Reed is out), T. Kroft

GPP:

(All of Above) J. Cook, B. Watson, J. Gresham, C. Brate

Defense:

Los Angeles Chargers

LA Chargers (DK $3,000) –  The Chargers are facing rookie quarterback Nathan Peterman in his first career start. The Chargers have a great defensive line and should be able to bring pressure on Peterman, forcing sacks and possibly interceptions.

Cash:

JAX, LAC, HOU, ARI, DEN,

GPP:

BAL, KC, NO, CIN






NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football: Week 3 Cash and GPP Plays

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

We close the book on Week 2 of the NFL season after a relatively chalky NFL slate. We saw several of the obvious plays hit like Tom Brady, Ty Montgomery, Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, and even Coby Fleener all hit value

 

Now we transition to Week 3, which opens up as an unusual ten home teams as current underdogs. The Patriots, Eagles, Panthers, Titans, and Packers are the only home teams that are favored in the main slate. That doesn’t exactly say everything about the slate quite yet; it just means ownership may be more spread out than what we’ve seen the first two weeks. So without further or do, let’s dive in.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan (DK $7,100, FD $8,500) – One of the first things I look for when looking into Quarterbacks are team implied totals. Matt Ryan comes in after a dominant performance against the Packers on Sunday Night Football with an implied team total of 26.75 against the Lions. That’s good enough for third highest on the slate behind only the Patriots and the Raiders. The Lions are currently 12 worst in the league by averaging 236 passing yards per game and are averaging 40 passing attempts allowed per game. This game originally opened up with a 48.5 o/u and has since moved to 50.5, which is good enough for the second highest total of the week. The game is on the road for the Falcons, and Ryan is known for performing better at home, so there is a reason to temper expectations. But in a matchup against an improved Lions offense with a secondary bad secondary, the game flow could mean Ryan will a lot of opportunities to chuck the ball.

Matthew Stafford (DK $6,200, FD $7,900) – Pivoting to the other side of the ball, Stafford has done reasonably well his first two weeks against the Cardinals and the Giants. Two opponents that are tougher on paper than his matchup this week. Stafford comes into the week as a 3 point underdog and with an implied team total of 23.75. Stafford is returning home where he threw for 4 touchdowns and 292 yards in Week 1 against a good Cardinals secondary. Out of all the games this week, this Lions/Falcons game is my favorite for quarterback points.

Kirk Cousins (DK $6,100, FD $7,600) – Cousins has been disappointing the first two weeks. He had a disappointing game on the road against the Rams and was mediocre against the Eagles in the opening week. This week could potentially be a rebound spot for Cousins. He’s at home facing a Raiders defense that has been overachieving the first two weeks of the season. The Raiders are averaging only 200 passing yards per game and have only allowed two passing touchdowns on the year. Last year the Raiders were one of the worst secondaries in the league and did very little to improve that unit this offseason. Oakland does have one of the league’s best offenses in the league, which explains the high o/u at 54 (highest of the week). Give me a low-owned Kirk Cousins against a weak secondary at home, even as a 3 point underdog.

Value QB

Andy Dalton (DK $5,100, FD $6,800) – Andy Dalton has been terrible the first two weeks. In fact, the entire Bengals offense has as they are 1 of 2 teams (49ers) that have yet to find the end zone this season. That being said, Dalton has had two difficult matchups after facing the Ravens and the Texans on a short week. The Bengals opened the week as a 10 point underdog on the road against the Packers, but have since narrowed the line to +8.5. Aaron Rodgers is without a doubt looking to light up the scoreboard after getting run over by the Falcons (again) on national TV, so I expect Dalton to have plenty of garbage time opportunities to throw the ball.

Running Backs

Le’Veon Bell (DK $8,800, FD $8,700) – To say Bell has been disappointing the first two weeks is an understatement. He’s been so disappointing that Elliott eclipsed him as the most expensive running back on this week. But this week could be the week we get Bell at depressed ownership and in a bounce-back spot. He doesn’t quite check all the boxes going up against an improved front seven in Chicago, but the Steelers are 7 point favorites. We saw Bell get 27 rushes last week and also 4 targets, so the volume is much improved after that bizarre first week. We all know Big Ben’s struggles on the road, yet the Steelers are still are implied to score 26 points. This should be a get well spot for Bell.

CJ Anderson (DK $5,800, FD $6,900) – Anderson is way too cheap on DK at 5.8k. The Broncos have shown that Anderson is the feature back while Jamaal Charles has only found his way on the field in passing situations. Anderson owns 70% of the Broncos rushing attempts after two weeks and has produced just under 200 yards (199). He also has 4 catches on 6 targets, which adds to his value on DK. The Broncos are a 3 point favorite against the Bills in a game that could feature both running backs with their pedestrian passing games and minimal projections. Anderson is projected as the third best running pack (point per dollar) on LineupLabs.

Isaiah Crowell (DK $4,800, FD $6,600) – If you drafted Crowell as I did in season long or redraft leagues, you’re probably frustrated with the thought of playing him in DFS. But the truth is, if there is ever a spot to play Crowell, it might be this week. Crowell is facing a Colts defense whose defensive line may have more holes than swiss cheese. This game has one of the lowest totals on the week and rightfully so as both teams have young offenses. Crowell does have the luxury of running behind the best offensive line in the league per PFF.com, so this could be a breakout week for Crowell.

GPP Flyer

Mike Gillislee (DK $5,700, FD $6,800) – Probably the better site to play him is on FD since he’s so touchdown dependent, but that’s exactly why he’s a shot in the dark. Gillislee has scored 4 touchdowns in the first two weeks. He leads the league in rushes inside the 5-yard line, converting each 4 of his carries into touchdowns. Although Gillislee is touchdown dependent, he does own 59% of the market share of rushes out of the Patriots backfield. The Pats are the biggest favorite of the week (13.5), and at home so Gillislee should get a shot at a cheap TD.

Cash game plays not noted above: M. Gordon, K. Hunt, J. Ajayi, T. Montgomery.
GPP Flyers: L.McCoy, D. Freeman, C. McCaffrey

Wide Receivers:

AJ Green (DK $8,100, FD $ 7,500) – I talked about Green’s quarterback up top. I like the idea of targeting this game from the Bengals passing attack with the likelihood that they will be playing catch-up for the majority of the game. Green currently accounts for 30% of the Bengals’ targets through the first two games of the season. He’s seen 18 targets and has caught 10 of them for 141 yards. He has yet to find the end zone, but as I mentioned with Dalton, they have had two tough matchups. This week they go up against a Packers secondary that got torched by Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu in really what was only one-half of competitive football. The Packers rank 18th in the league in FP allowed to opposing WR by allowing 18 points through the first two weeks. I can see Green getting one, possibly two touchdowns in garbage time.

Michael Crabtree (DK $7,400, FD  $7,700) – I really thought that Amari Cooper was going to peak this season and Crabtree was going to begin declining. That clearly wasn’t the case last week when Crabtree scored 3 times on 6 targets, while Cooper only saw 5. I still think this may happen, but at least for this week, Crabtree might be the play over Cooper again. The big reason is that I expect Josh Norman to spend most of his time against Cooper, which would leave Crabtree lined up against Bashaud Breeland who currently has a PFF grade of 67.2. If Crabtree does face Breeland throughout the game, he should be able to find the end zone again.

Value

Rashard Higgins (DK $4,000, FD $5,100) – Higgins got a lot more playing time once the Brown’s top receiver Corey Coleman left the game. Coleman was eventually placed on IR and Higgins looks to be the biggest beneficiary from the move. Higgins got 11 targets from Kizer and caught 7 for 95 yards last week.

Devin Funchess (DK $4,200, FD $4,800) – With the injury to tight end Greg Olsen, Cam Newton will have to find someone over the middle of the field to dump the ball off. Per PFF.com, Funches is expected to lineup in 2 and 3 wide receiver sets against P.J. Williams. Williams is by far the Saints worst graded corner (42.7) in a secondary that has gotten torched by Brady and Bradford to begin the season. With Olsen out that’s going to open up more targets for the Panthers passing attack. I expect McCaffrey to see an uptick in targets but Funches should also benefit from Olsen’s absence.

** Devonte Adams is practically a free square if Nelson and Cobb are out ** 

GPP Flyer

DeAndre Hopkins (DK $6,200, FD $ 7,500) – Similar to Green’s situation, Hopkins is likely to find his team chasing a high-powered offense. Hopkins is currently third in the NFL in targets with 13 and also leads the NFL in team target market share 54.2%. It’s amazing how Watson just continues to chuck the ball Hopkins way. The Pats are currently 29th in the league against WR by allowing an average of 27.6 points to opposing wideouts. Hopkins is GPP only because Belichick is notorious for taking away the opposing team’s best weapon, which is Nuke.

Other Middle/Top Tier Options: M. Evans (GPP), K. Allen (Cash), D. Baldwin (GPP), T. Hill (Cash)

Tight End

For the first time this season there isn’t a clear-cut chalk tight end that will be heavily owned in cash games. At least for now. Below are a few of the best options when considering price per dollar spent.

Martellus Bennett (DK $4,400, FD $ 5,600) – Bennett is the tight end that I’m watching pretty closely. As I’m writing this Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have missed practice early in the week after leaving last week’s game against the Falcons. If one or neither of these players play that leaves plenty of targets up for grabs for the Packers, pass catchers, and I expect Bennett to be a beneficiary. Last week Bennett saw 11 targets with both Nelson and Cobb out of the game. Bennett would face a Bengals defense that ranked 30th in the league against tight ends last season.

Jack Doyle (DK $ 3,600, FD $5,300) – Doyle may be the heaviest owned TE on the week considering many DFS players will stick to recency bias and save their money by using Doyle as their value play. Doyle is certainly cheap and is coming off of a nice outing with Colts’ new quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Brissett targeted Doyle 8 times last week and Doyle caught every one of those targets and gained 79 yards to lead the team in receiving.

GPP Flyer

Jordan Reed (DK $5,400, FD $ 6,700) – Reed is limited to a tournament play only because he has missed practice early this week. Reed is listed as questionable which is likely to drive down his ownership. I already expressed my interest in the ‘skins offense in the QB section and I think adding Reed to a game stack for this Sunday night hammer could lead to a big payoff. Reed is among the top 5 TE in targets this season accounting for 20% of the team’s targets.

Cash game plays not noted above: Z. Ertz, T. Kelce, E. Ebron

Gpp Flyer: R. Gronkowski, D. Allen (if Gronk is inactive)

Defense

With 10 home teams as current underdogs ownership is likely to be spread out at defense.

New England Patriots (DK $3,800, FD $4,900) – The Patriots are at home facing the Texans who are implied to score a slate low 15.25 points. According to Vegas, they seem like the safest play. The issue is that they’re the most expensive option on DK and 4th most expensive on FD. If you’re able to fit them in your lineups, you probably should. Belichick will without a doubt have a scheme to unravel rookie QB Deshaun Watson

Tennessee Titans (DK $ 2,700, FD $4,300) – If you’re scraping the bottom of the barrel on defense I won’t blame you. As we get deeper in the week, I find myself justifying using the Titans for a few reasons. They’re home favorites (-3), Russell Wilson’s terrible home/road splits, and the Seahawks’ team total has dropped from 20.25 to 19.75. The Seahawks haven’t got their offense going this season and were lucky to survive a home game against the 49ers. The Titans like to control the clock by running the ball which could limit possessions, which limits scoring

 

Fantasy Football Season Preview: Tight Ends and Defenses/Special Teams 2017

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

**Mike Barner**

Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends and Defenses/Special Teams 2017

The long journey through the NFL season is rapidly approaching, meaning it’s one of the most exciting times of the year: drafting your fantasy football team. While you need your players to stay healthy and have a little luck go your way, having a strong draft can go a long way to determining the fate of your season.

Lineup Lab is here to help you come away a winner. In the fourth and final of our season previews, we’ll break down tight ends and defenses/special teams. Quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers get most of the attention, but having a quality tight end on your roster can help elevate your squad to a championship level.

While most owners wait to select defenses/special teams until the final rounds of your draft, that doesn’t mean it’s a throwaway position. Finding one that can create turnovers, accumulate sacks and throw in the occasional return touchdown can provide plenty of valuable points for your team.

Let’s examine some tight ends and defenses/special teams to target and avoid as you navigate your way through your draft.

Martellus Bennett - Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends 2017

Old Faces In New Places

Martellus Bennett – Green Bay Packers

You can put Bennett into this category just about every season as the Packers will be his fifth different team in the last seven seasons. He had the best season of his career in 2014 as a member of the Chicago Bears as he recorded 90 receptions for 916 yards and six touchdowns. The Patriots signed him to be their second tight end last season, but he ended up with a larger role than expected as Rob Gronkowski was injured yet again. Bennett played all 16 games and finished with 55 receptions, 701 yards and seven touchdowns.

Bennett will be the undisputed starter in Green Bay, becoming possibly the most talented tight end that quarterback Aaron Rodgers has had the pleasure of playing with. Last season’s tight end duo of Jared Cook and Richard Rodgers combined for 60 receptions, 648 yards and three touchdowns.

Bennett is certainly a better player than either Cook or Rodgers and should present a better red zone target as well. The Packers have a great receiving trio of Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams as well Ty Montgomery to catch passes out of the backfield, which could limit Bennett’s receptions a bit. With that being said, Bennett is still likely to be a top-10 fantasy option at tight end.

Julius Thomas – Miami Dolphins

Thomas had his breakout campaign as a member of the Denver Broncos in 2013 when he posted 65 receptions, 788 yards and 12 touchdowns. Although he only had 43 receptions and 489 yards in 2014, he still provided a ton of value as he again scored 12 touchdowns. It appeared he was going to be one of the elite red zone targets among tight ends in all of football for years to come.

His success was short lived though as he moved on to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2015. Injuries limited him during his tenure with the team as he missed 11 games over the last two seasons. 2016 was a complete disaster as he only had 30 receptions, 281 yards and four touchdowns.

Now a member of the Dolphins, Thomas is looking to rejuvenate his career under the eye of coach Adam Gase. It’s important to note that Gase was on the Broncos’ staff when Thomas was playing at his best. Even though that would appear to be in Thomas’ favor, I’d still stay away from making him your starting tight end.

Tyler Eifert - Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends 2017

Overrated Players

Tyler Eifert – Cincinnati Bengals

Eifert’s best season came in 2015 when he had 52 receptions, 615 yards and an impressive 13 touchdowns in only 13 games. To put that into perspective, Gronk had 11 touchdowns that same season despite playing in two more games and Eifert. That excellent season vaulted Eifert towards the top of the tight end position for fantasy owners last season, but he couldn’t cash in as he was limited to only eight games due to injury.

Eifert supporters will point to the fact that he has 20 touchdowns in 37 career games. That is certainly elite production, but what is more important to note is that those 37 games have come over four seasons. Playing less than 10 games a year on average is a killer for his fantasy value. While he could be a top-5 tight end when healthy, the odds of him staying healthy for an entire season are not great. If you want to take a risk and draft him based on his upside, be sure to not overpay for him on draft day. Based on his current ADP though, you’ll likely have to.

Denver Broncos

To make this clear right off the bat, the Broncos are an excellent defensive team. They allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL last season and had more interceptions (14) than passing touchdowns allowed (13). Their 42 sacks were tied for third most in the league. Even though they weren’t as impressive against the run, they were still around the middle of the pack in rushing touchdowns allowed at 15.

The reason I believe the Broncos defense/special teams is overrated is because it’s likely going to cost you a pick that is higher than either of your last two selections, which is where you should be selecting your defense/special teams and kicker. Looking at ESPN standard scoring last season, the Broncos actually scored the second most fantasy points behind the Minnesota Vikings. The difference between the highest scoring defense/special teams and the tenth highest was only an average of three fantasy points per game.

A difference of three fantasy points per game is not worth reaching for the Broncos. I’d rather take a running back or wide receiver with upside at that point in the draft and worse case scenario, stream my defense/special team throughout the season based on weekly match ups.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends 2017 - Zach Ertz

Undervalued Players

Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles

On an Eagles team that lacked talented wide receivers last season, Ertz played a major role in their passing attack as he had 78 receptions for 816 yards and four touchdowns. He caught 74% of the passes thrown his way and averaged 10.5 yards per reception. Among fellow tight ends, Ertz ranked fifth in both receptions and receiving yards.

Ertz has been very consistent in his career, recording at least 702 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons. The last two seasons have been even better as he has at least 106 targets and 75 receptions in both years. He has also averaged at least 10.5 yards per reception in all four of his seasons in the league.

Although the Eagles are much improved this season with the additions of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, Ertz is still going to be a very important part of their offense. Quarterback Carson Wentz also looks primed to improve his game, which could provide a boost for Ertz. He might not score a ton of touchdowns, but his consistency and yardage provides a lot of value.

Austin Hooper – Atlanta Falcons

Hooper was selected in the third round of the 2016 draft, but he had a quiet rookie season last year as he had 19 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns. He only received 27 targets, so he really wasn’t that involved in the offense in general. One of his best games of the season though actually came in the Super Bowl as he had three receptions on six targets for 32 yards and a touchdown.

Hooper didn’t have great numbers last year partially because he was in a time share with Jacob Tamme. Tamme finished the season with 22 receptions, 210 yards and three touchdowns. As a unit, Falcons tight ends finished the season with 788 yards and 10 touchdowns. With Tamme now gone, Hooper is lined up to take over the starting job in only his second season in the league.

The Falcons passing offense was one of the best in the league last year, finishing third in passing yards, tied for second in passing touchdowns and first in yards per pass attempt. With a more prominent role in the offense, Hooper is going to have a chance to establish himself as a viable fantasy option this year. I think at worse he is a top-15 tight end who has the potential to finish in the top-10. Considering how late he is going in drafts, he could be one of the best value picks at the tight end position.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends 2017 - Houston Texans

A Look At The Fantasy Playoff Schedule

Another key part of your research is to know who has favorable match ups during the fantasy football playoffs, generally weeks 15 and 16 in most leagues. Let’s dive in and see where you can gain that edge.

Favorable Schedules

Houston Texans

The Texans defense/special team starts off the fantasy playoffs by taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road in Week 15. While the Jaguars drafted promising running back Leonard Fournette, they are just a mess at quarterback as Blake Bortles has regressed significantly. They certainly do not have the makings of a potent offense. Week 16 brings a match up against the Pittsburgh Steelers, which would appear difficult on the surface, but is more favorable when you consider the game is being played in Houston. As noted in our quarterbacks season preview, Ben Roethlisberger struggles significantly on the road. Things are looking up for the Texans fantasy value at the right time this year.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs face the Los Angeles Charges in Week 15, a team that does have some fire power. However, this is a home game for Kansas City and they allowed only 16 points per game at home last season. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is prone to throwing interceptions as well as he has at least 18 in two of the last three seasons. Week 16 brings another home game, this time against the Miami Dolphins. Dolphins quarterback Jay Cutler also turns the ball over a lot as he has thrown 34 interceptions in his last 35 games. Getting two turnover-prone quarterbacks at home is a major win for the Chiefs during the fantasy playoffs.

Difficult Schedules

Jordan Reed – Washington Redskins

I mentioned this before when talking about Tyrelle Pryor in the wide receivers preview, but the Redskins have a brutal schedule when it matters the most. Week 15 brings a contest against the Arizona Cardinals who allowed the fourth fewest passing yards and were tied for the eighth fewest passing touchdowns allowed. Week 16 brings the stingy Broncos who allowed the fewest passing yards and fewest passing touchdowns last season. Reed certainly has his work cut out for him.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are faced with two road games during the fantasy playoffs. Week 15 will be against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have added wide receiver DeSean Jackson and tight end O.J. Howard to go along with Mike Evans and Cameron Brate. Entering his third season in the NFL, quarterback Jameis Winston is poised to take the Bucs offense to the next level. Week 16 brings the nightmare match up against the New Orleans Saints in New Orleans. Last season, the Saints scored 32 points against the Falcons when they met them at home as Drew Brees threw for 376 yards and three touchdowns. While I’m not high on the Falcons defense to begin with, you definitely want to avoid them down the stretch.