The main Sunday slate in DFS for Week 9 will be missing some big names at various positions with the Saints and Rams on a bye and the Patriots, Ravens and Cowboys among the teams playing in prime time. With that being said, there are still several quarterbacks and running backs that are in a position to thrive.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 4 – Quarterbacks
Week 3 certainly brought a lot of excitement with young quarterbacks stepping into starting roles for a few teams. Veterans like Tom Brady and Russell Wilson also played extremely well, setting up some high scores across the league. Let’s dive into the matchups to see who could shine in Week 4.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 – Quarterbacks
The quarterback position has been decimated by injuries of late, including two significant ones to Drew Brees (thumb) and Ben Roethlisberger (elbow). That makes things a bit interesting for Week 3 in DFS, so let’s break down the options and discuss which matchups to exploit.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 14 – Quarterbacks
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
If you didn’t make the playoffs in your season-long fantasy football league, the fun isn’t over yet. Every week is a new opportunity to bring home some cash in DFS. Let’s examine some quarterbacks to target and avoid as you craft your lineup for Week 14. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $6,800
The Steelers were involved in a shootout against the Chargers last week, ultimately losing 33-30 at home. Roethlisberger did throw for two touchdowns, but he had just 281 yards. That marked the first time since Week 9 that he had thrown for fewer than 300 yards in a game. He was also picked off again, leaving him with six interceptions across his last three games. The good news is that he attempted 45 passes and has at least 40 pass attempts in nine of 12 games.
Roethlisberger’s interceptions are up this year, but so are his touchdowns and passing yards per game. His touchdowns numbers are still much better at home (16) than on the road (10), but he is averaging 350.5 passing yards per game on the road. The Raiders struggle to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks and have allowed the most passing touchdowns (29) in the league, leaving Roethlisberger with a very high floor in this contest.
Drew Brees vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $8,500
DraftKings = $6,600
It’s tough for the road team to win on Thursday Night Football, but the Saints laid an egg offensively against the Cowboys by scoring 10 points last week. Brees was as much to blame as anyone, throwing for just 127 yards to go along with one touchdown and one interception. The fact that he attempted just 28 passes didn’t help his cause, but he had four touchdowns across only 22 pass attempts the previous week against the Falcons.
Believe it or not, Brees has now thrown for fewer than 200 yards in a game three times this season. The Saints have a great running back duo of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, which doesn’t always leave Brees with a ton of passing attempts. He has largely made up for that lack of volume, though, with 30 touchdowns. When the Saints and Bucs squared off in Week 1, Brees had 439 yards and three touchdowns. Considering the Bucs have allowed the second-most touchdowns through the air (28), expect Brees to have a big bounce-back performance.
Philip Rivers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $8,300
DraftKings = $6,500
The Chargers big win on the road against the Steelers last week has them riding high as they approach a spot in the playoffs. Rivers was right at the forefront of their victory, throwing for 299 yards and two touchdowns. He’s only thrown for at least 300 yards one time across his last five games, but he’s thrown at least two touchdown passes in every game this season.
The loss of star running back Melvin Gordon (knee) was significant for the Chargers, but there is hope that he might not be out for too long. Even if he does return for Week 14, this is a prime spot to use Rivers in DFS. The Bengals injuries on offense might grab all the headlines, but their defense has been atrocious, allowing the second-most passing yards per game (280) to go along with 26 passing touchdowns.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Jameis Winston vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $7,700
DraftKings = $6,200
Winston’s second stint as the Bucs quarterback this season has been significantly better than his first. He came through with another strong performance in Week 13 against the Panthers, throwing for 249 yards and two touchdowns. His 66.7 percent completion percentage wasn’t anything to write home about, but it was key that he didn’t throw an interception. After being plagued by turnovers throughout his career, Winston has yet to be intercepted across two games since regaining a starting role.
It should be noted that his last two games have come against the 49ers and Panthers, both of which have their holes in pass coverage. The Saints aren’t exactly defensive juggernauts, though, since they have allowed the third-most passing yards per game (279). This game being played at home is also a big plus for Winston considering how well the Saints play in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. His turnover history always leaves him with some risk, but there is also upside here in tournament play.
Baker Mayfield vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $5,800
Week 13 against the Texans was not one of Mayfield’s finer performances. He did throw for 397 yards, but he had only one touchdown and three interceptions. That broke a streak of five-straight games with at least two touchdowns and two straight games without an interception. With only 13 points, it also marked the first time in the last three games that the Browns failed to score at least 21 points.
A lot of Mayfield’s struggles last week might have just been because the Browns were on the road against the red-hot Texans, who have won nine straight. Mayfield gets a much easier task this week at home against the Panthers, who have allowed 27 touchdowns through the air. Mayfield’s pass attempts are sometimes limited due to how well Nick Chubb is running the ball, but he’s still someone to consider based on this matchup.
Josh Allen vs. New York Jets
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $5,500
Allen only completed 54.6 percent of his passes against the Dolphins last week, finishing with 231 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. However, he did a ton of damage with his legs, running for 135 yards on nine carries. This comes on the heels of rushing for 99 yards in Week 12 against the Jaguars. He actually has almost as many rushing touchdowns (four) as he does passing touchdowns (five) this season.
Lamar Jackson of the Ravens might grab all the headlines, but Allen’s ability to rack up rushing yards should not go unnoticed. He still has a lot of improving to do in the passing game and he might not be a consistent contributor in that area until next season. This is an opportunity to target him in DFS, though, considering how poorly the Jets have played. They’ve lost six straight games, one of them was 41-10 against the Bills when Matt Barkley was at quarterback.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Tom Brady vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $7,600
DraftKings = $5,800
The Patriots are loaded at running back with Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead all finally healthy. They haven’t needed to rely as much on the arm of Brady, leaving him to throw a total of four touchdowns across his last five games. The Dolphins are one of the worst teams in the league against the run, so the Patriots might not need Brady to throw much in Week 14, either. He’s not overly expensive on either site, but it still might be best to avoid him for your entry.
Matthew Stafford vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $5,200
The wheels have come off for the Lions. They are 1-5 over their last six games, which included brutal matchups against the Seahawks, Vikings, Bears, and Rams. The Cardinals might not have a good record, but they have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (220). Stafford has a total of four touchdown passes and five interceptions in his last five games, leaving him with very little upside despite his cheap price.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 10 – Quarterbacks
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
After a brutal Week 9 where six teams were on a bye, things get a little better in Week 10 with only four teams getting the added time off. Let’s examine some quarterbacks to target and avoid as you craft your DFS lineup. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Patrick Mahomes vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $9,800
DraftKings = $7,200
To no surprise, the Chiefs beat the Browns soundly in Week 9. Another obvious outcome of that game was Mahomes having a strong performance. He certainly didn’t disappoint, throwing for 365 yards and three touchdowns. Although that marked five consecutive games with an interception, he also has four straight games with at least three touchdowns.
There might not be any other quarterback who is more automatic than Mahomes from a DFS perspective. He has a ton of talent around him and plays within a great offensive scheme. What shouldn’t go unnoticed with all the passing yards and touchdowns is that Mahomes has even posted a completion percentage of at least 70.6 percent over three straight games. The Cardinals have been one of the better teams at defending the pass in the league, but facing Mahomes on the road is a whole different story.
Drew Brees vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $6,300
The highlight matchup of Week 9 was the Saints taking on the undefeated Rams. It certainly was an offensive shootout with the Saints ultimately dealing the Rams their first loss. Brees had one of his best performances of the year, throwing for 346 yards and four touchdowns. He didn’t throw an interception, either, and has only thrown one pick all season.
Brees’ stellar stat line came on the heels of a dud in Week 8 against the Vikings when he threw for 120 yards and one touchdown. He might have games from time to time where the Saints heavy use of the run limits his upside, but that wasn’t exactly a great matchup against a Vikings team that is only allowing 233 passing yards per game. With the Bengals allowing the most passing yards per game (319), expect this to be an opportunity that Brees exploits.
Philip Rivers vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,200
DraftKings = $6,000
Rivers faced a tough Seahawks defense in Week 9 that had allowed 10 touchdown passes all season. They did a good job limiting Rivers to 228 passing yards, but he still salvaged his performance with two touchdowns. Rivers has been extremely consistent in that department, recording at least two touchdowns in every game this year.
Things get much easier for Rivers in Week 10 against a Raiders team that was just lit up by the 49ers with Nick Mullins at quarterback. The Raiders have not only allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game (263), but they’ve put very little pressure on the quarterback with only seven sacks. In their first meeting this season, Rivers had 339 passing yards and two touchdowns, so don’t be surprised if he excels in their rematch.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Andy Dalton vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $5,800
The Bengals are coming off of their bye after squeaking out a 37-34 win over the Bucs in Week 8. Dalton took advantage of the Bucs porous secondary, finishing with 280 passing yards and two touchdowns. After averaging only 207.5 passing yards per game last year, Dalton has been much more productive this season with 262.8 yards per contest.
One big negative for Dalton’s prospects for Week 10 is the injury to his star receiver A.J. Green (toe), who is expected to miss at least the next two games. On the bright side, receiver John Ross (groin) is looking like he might be able to return to the field. Even without Green, Dalton has the potential to be productive against the Saints, who have allowed the second-most passing yards per game (311). The Bengals might also be forced to throw the ball a lot to keep up with the Saints offense, so don’t shy away from Dalton just because of Green’s injury.
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $7,600
DraftKings = $5,900
Fitzpatrick regained his starting job for Week 9 against the Panthers. The Bucs were down big early and forced to throw a lot, which played right into Fitzpatrick’s wheelhouse. He did throw two interceptions, but he also had 243 yards and four touchdowns. Across his five starts this season, he has finished with at least three touchdown passes four times.
Even though the Bucs suffered yet another loss, Fitzpatrick played well enough to remain the starting quarterback for this matchup against the Redskins. The Redskins have been stout against the run, but they’ve allowed 254 passing yards per game to go along with 15 touchdown passes. With how bad the Bucs are playing on defense, look for Fitzpatrick to have plenty of opportunities to provide value Sunday.
Baker Mayfield vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $5,400
The change at head coach and offensive coordinator made an immediate positive impact on Mayfield last week against the Chiefs. He finished with 297 passing yards and two touchdowns, but it should also be noted that his 69.1 percent completion percentage was the highest in any game in which he has started.
While it certainly helped that Mayfield was facing the Chiefs defense, the initial results under his new coaching staff are encouraging. He also gets another exploitable matchup against the Falcons in Week 10, who have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (304), which is actually more than the Chiefs have allowed. The Falcons have also given up 18 touchdowns through the air, which is tied for the fourth most. If you want to take a chance on a cheap option in tournament play, Mayfield is worth considering.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Mitch Trubisky vs. Detroit Lions
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $7,700
DraftKings = $5,600
As most people expected, the Bears destroyed the Bills last week. With Nathan Peterman under center for Buffalo, the Bears defense scored two touchdowns of their own. The Bears had little need to throw the ball with a big early lead, leaving Trubisky to produce season-lows in pass attempts (20) and passing yards (135). This should be a more competitive game against the Lions, but the way to beat them is on the ground, not through the air. The Lions have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (215), but the third most rushing yards per game (142.5). Trubisky might not attempt a lot of passes in this contest, either.
Matthew Stafford vs. Chicago Bears
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,000
Stafford and the Lions had a disastrous performance against the Vikings in Week 9, losing 24-9. Stafford attempted 36 passes but only finished with 199 yards. Although he didn’t throw an interception, he also failed to throw a touchdown for the first time this season. The trade of Golden Tate to the Eagles certainly isn’t going to help Stafford moving forward, either. The Bears have the second-most interceptions (14) and are allowing only 237 passing yards per game, leaving Stafford with limited upside.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 8 – Quarterbacks
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
Bye weeks and prime time games leave the main Sunday slate in DFS for Week 8 missing some top options including Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan. However, there are still plenty of great players on the board. Let’s examine some quarterbacks to target and avoid as you craft your lineup. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Patrick Mahomes vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $9,200
DraftKings = $7,000
Mahomes kept things rolling Sunday night against the Bengals, throwing for 358 yards and four touchdowns. He even chipped in a season-high 45 rushing yards on four carries. If you want to be picky, he did throw an interception for the third straight game after not throwing a pick in any of his first four contests. It’s easy to overlook the turnovers, though, since he has already thrown at least three touchdowns in a game five times and at least 300 yards in all but one contest.
There is no quarterback with a higher floor than Mahomes. He has a ton of weapons around him, making it hard for defenses to figure out who to try and stop. Even his running back Kareem Hunt has four receiving touchdowns. The Broncos haven’t been horrible defending the pass, but Mahomes is still a top option in cash contests, especially with this game being at home.
Jared Goff vs. Green Bay Packers
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,500
DraftKings = $6,000
Goff failed to throw a touchdown in a game for the first time this year in Week 6, but he rebounded with two scores Sunday. He’s thrown for 201 yards and 202 yards in his last two games, respectively, in large part because he attempted 28 passes or fewer in both contests. With Todd Gurley destroying opposing defenses on the ground, the Rams don’t always need to have Goff throw a lot.
One thing to note about both of Goff’s recent performances is that they came on the road. Goff has five touchdowns across four road games this year, but he has nine touchdowns over his three home contests. His last two games also came against two bad offenses in the Broncos and 49ers. The Rams might be forced to throw more to keep up with the Packers, making Goff a viable option to consider.
Andrew Luck vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,300
DraftKings = $6,300
Luck had a bizarre performance in Week 7. The Colts got up big early against the horrid Bills, leaving Luck to record season lows in pass attempts (23) and yards (156). To put that into perspective, he had thrown the ball at least 40 times in five of his first six games. However, he was still extremely productive with four touchdowns, marking the third time in the last four weeks that he had exactly that many scores.
It wouldn’t be all that surprising to see Luck attempt fewer passes in this game, as well. Marlon Mack has breathed some life into their running game, and while the Raiders aren’t nearly as bad as the Bills, they aren’t great offensively, either. It’s hard to imagine them playing any better this week with Amari Cooper traded to the Cowboys and Marshawn Lynch on IR. Their defense has allowed 13 touchdown passes and recorded just four interceptions, leaving Luck with a matchup to exploit.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Andy Dalton vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $7,800
DraftKings = $6,200
Dalton and the Bengals laid an egg against the Chiefs on Sunday. Playing in Arrowhead Stadium is no easy task, but the Chiefs defense has been lit up this year. Dalton made them look excellent, completing only 15 of 29 passes for 148 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. After throwing at least two touchdowns in each of his first four games, he has four touchdowns across the last three games.
Dalton quickly gets a chance to redeem himself against a Bucs team that has allowed the most passing yards per game (328) and passing touchdowns (18) in the league. If that wasn’t bad enough, they’ve only picked off one pass. Some people might be down on Dalton after last week, but he’s still a great option in tournament play.
Jameis Winston vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $7,800
DraftKings = $6,000
After posting 395 passing yards in his first start in Week 6, Winston followed that up with 365 yards in Week 7. However, he threw four touchdowns passes two weeks ago, but failed to record a touchdown through the air Sunday. He also threw two more interceptions. Luckily, he was still able to somewhat salvage his performance with 55 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.
The Bucs defense is so bad that their offense has to throw a lot to keep pace with the opposing team. They also don’t run the ball well, which has led to Winston attempting at least 42 passes in both of his starts. Turnovers will likely continue to be a problem, but this a matchup to exploit since the Bengals have allowed the third-most passing yards per game (301) and are tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns (15) allowed.
Mitch Trubisky vs. New York Jets
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $7,700
DraftKings = $6,100
Trubisky is the quarterback of the future for the Bears, but he looked shaky with two touchdown passes and three interceptions across the first three games this year. He failed to throw for more than 220 yards in any of those contests, as well. Then, everything turned on a dime when he threw for 354 yards and six touchdown passes during a route of the Bucs in Week 4. He’s kept things rolling with 649 yards and five touchdowns across two games since.
Last year, Tribusky had four touchdowns and one interception at home compared to three touchdowns and six interceptions on the road. His favorable home splits have continued this season with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions at home compared to three touchdowns and two interceptions on the road. While he may not have as high of an upside as Dalton or Winston, Trubisky could still be extremely productive in this game.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Matthew Stafford vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Ford Field
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,600
The Lions offense is built around Stafford and their passing game, but he’s attempted 48 passes over his last two games, combined. He did still throw at least two touchdown passes in both games, but he failed to accumulate more than 217 yards in either contest. Those two games are more than likely just outlier performances, but even if he throws the ball more in Week 7, that doesn’t necessarily mean you want him in your lineup. The Seahawks have allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game (206) and have more interceptions (nine) than touchdown passes allowed (eight).
Sam Darnold vs. Chicago Bears
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $4,500
Darnold has played well at times, but he’s largely been inconsistent. He’s had four games with one or no touchdown passes and has thrown for fewer than 200 yards four times. Turnovers have been a problem for him, as well, with 10 interceptions to go along with his 10 touchdowns. The Bears defense has been porous the last couple of weeks, but if you want to go with a cheap option at quarterback in tournament play, Darnold is not your guy.
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17
Welcome to the craziness that is Week 17 in the NFL. There are teams that are locked into their playoff spots or have nothing to play for at all and could very well sit their starters. Even if some players don’t sit all together, they could be limited to a couple quarters at most. Be sure to check out all the information available on Twitter or by a simple Google search before locking in your lineups as this article is written mid-week. Let’s jump in and take a look at each Tier for the seven-game early slate on Sunday.
Tier 1
Ezekiel Elliott returned last week and rushed for 94 yards and picked up an additional 21 yards through the air but unfortunately, the Cowboys lost and were eliminated from the playoffs. This muddies the waters for Week 17 as it is unclear how much usage he will get and then add the tough matchup vs. the Eagles defense that ranks 4th in DVOA vs. the rush and 3rd in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs.
DeAndre Hopkins received his second-lowest target share of the season(6) but still managed to make a ridiculous catch in the endzone to pick up 16.5 fantasy points. This week he gets an elite matchup vs. the Colts who have allowed the third-most passing yards per game(254.8) this season and rank 23rd in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. I am also less concerned with his usage as both teams have been out of the playoffs for some time now and it hasn’t stopped him at all.
The Patriots are locked into the playoffs and have wrapped up the division but still have one game left to lock down home-field advantage through the playoffs with a win so I am expecting another big game from Gronk. He has scored 15 or more DK points in four straight games with three of those performances exceeding 25 points and now faces a horrendous Jets defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass and 24th in DK points per game allowed to tight ends. He could be the highest owned player in this tier but also may have the biggest upside.
The Vikings have also locked up their division but have a big game on Sunday as the Rams, Saints, and Panthers are all breathing down their neck for that #2 seed and a first-round bye. Adam Thielen has been quiet over the last two weeks with just five catches for 54 yards but is having a big season overall with 1,215 yards and could be low owned this week considering he is facing a Bears team that has been pretty good against wideouts ranking 14th in DK points per game. Don’t overlook he and Case Keenum’s ability to produce big-time fantasy points as Thielen moves all over the field and can exploit matchups.
Top Targets in this Tier – Rob Gronkowski, Adam Thielen
Tier 2
Marvin Jones has not scored a touchdown or broke 100 yards since Thanksgiving vs. the Vikings and has seen some decline down the stretch as he has only been targeted 14 times over the last three games and tallied double-digit fantasy points just once. Despite neither team in this game having anything to play for, Jones does get a nice matchup vs. the Packers defense that has allowed the 11th most passing yards per game(232.3) and ranks 25th in DK points per game to wideouts.
It’s a similar situation for T.Y. Hilton as the Colts and Texans have been eliminated and on to next season. Hilton did breakout in a tough matchup last week vs. the Ravens catching six of his 12 targets for his first 100-yard game since week 9 against none other than these Houston Texans who rank 28th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. Look for Hilton to finish the year off strong.
Speaking of the Texans, it was JuJu Smith Schuster getting to them late on Christmas day as he caught six of his seven targets for 75 yards and a touchdown. With Antonio Brown still sidelined with an injury both Martavis Bryant and Smith-Schuster should continue to see high usage in the Steelers defense. The other thing he has going is that the Steelers can still grab a first-round bye with a win and a New England loss. This week they get a winless Browns team that sits mid-pack in passing yards per game allowed (230.7) but rank 29th overall when looking at DVOA vs. the pass. Fire up JuJu with confidence this week.
Another safe play in this tier is Dion Lewis at the running back position. With James White and Rex Burkhead both out last week, Lewis saw the bulk of the action out of the backfield and crushed for fantasy rushing for 129 yards and a touchdown 35.3 fantasy points. Burkhead for sure won’t be back this week and White is still questionable early in the week meaning Lewis could once again be the feature back for the Pats who are huge 15.5 point favorites. The Jets have been pretty good against the run ranking 12th in DVOA and 15th in DK points per game allowed to running backs but the game script in fully in Lewis’s favor here and he should once again see 20+ carries which presents a high floor and ceiling.
Top Targets in this Tier – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Dion Lewis
Tier 3
Tom Brady has been a big disappointment for fantasy lately and a lot of it can be attributed to the run game that has averaged 121.5 yards per game over their last four games. In those four games, Brady has not topped 17 fantasy points once and may not again this week as the Patriots are currently huge 15.5 point home favorites vs. the Jets and will likely lean on Dion Lewis once again.
Kirk Cousins is coming off his best game in over a month throwing for 299 yards and three touchdowns against the Broncos and has topped 15 fantasy points in three of his last four weeks. He has also thrown for multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games. The running game in Washington has been hit hard with injuries which should once again force Cousins to throw it up 30+ times and he gets an elite matchup to do it against the Giants who rank 31st overall in DK points per game to quarterbacks.
Even without Antonio Brown, Big Ben threw two touchdowns on Christmas day making it seven straight games with multiple touchdown passes. Like I mentioned earlier, the Steelers are still playing for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs but without Brown again this week and an elite running back in the backfield(Le’Veon Bell), we shouldn’t expect high volume from the passing game which will limit Big Ben’s upside.
Matthew Stafford hasn’t flashed much upside since having his throwing hand stepped on earlier in December against the Ravens. He has hit double-digit fantasy points in every single game this season but has only hit the 20-point threshold once in his last five games. There has been no word nor is it expected that the Lions will rest their starters against the Packers and that is good news as the matchup is favorable as the Packers rank 25thin DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Back in Week 9, Stafford completed 26 of 33 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Packers.
The Eagles snuck out a win on Christmas vs. a weak Raiders defense but it was almost all credited to the defense as Foles came back to Earth after a four-touchdown performance the week before. He completed just 50% of his passes for 163 yards and a touchdown. With the win, the Eagles locked up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs so it is unclear how much run they will give Foles in a division game vs. the Cowboys. If word comes out that they will let him play the entire game to prepare for the playoffs, fire him up as the Cowboys rank 21st in DK points per game allowed to QB’s and Foles has a ton of weapons to help him hit value(Ertz, Jeffery, Agholor, Ajayi).
Top Targets in this Tier – Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford
Tier 4
The fourth tier is a very interesting one considering four of the five quarterbacks have nothing to play for as their teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Only the Vikings and Case Keenum have something to play for as they look to lock up the #2 seed and a first-round bye. As of Wednesday, the four other quarterbacks are slated to start for their respective teams but Eli Manning seems to have the biggest question mark as to how much playing time he will see.
Dak Prescott gets a tough matchup on paper vs. the Eagles who rank 6th in DVOA vs. the pass and 12th in DK points per game allowed to the position. With the Eagles having already locked up the #1 seed there is a chance they could rest some starters in the second half which would open up Prescott’s upside if he was to play the entire game.
Brett Hundley will get the start and likely play the entire game but the knock on him this week is that two of his top receiving options are dealing with injuries. Devante Adams remains in the league’s concussion protocol while Jordy Nelson was injured in Saturday night’s game and has yet to practice this week. The matchup is also not high on the list as the Lions rank 16th in DVOA vs. the pass and 14th in DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Proceed with caution.
Jacoby Brissett easily gets the best matchup in the tier facing a Texans defense that ranks 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and dead last in DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. The issue with him is that the upside really hasn’t been there as he has just three touchdowns over his last four games while averaging 11.9 DK points per game. If you are planning on using Brissett in this tier, be sure to pair him with his top target, T.Y. Hilton, in Tier 2.
Top Target in this Tier – Case Keenum, Jacoby Brissett
Tier 5
Tier 5, which consists of five wide receivers, start with Stefon Diggs who has not only scored in back to back games but has also been much better at home this season. He is averaging just over 85 yards per game(44 on the road) and has scored five touchdowns(2 on the road) while averaging 20.9 DK points per game(9.9 on the road). The matchup is not the greatest against the Bears who rank 14th in DVOA vs. the pass but the good news is that Diggs has also seen an uptick in targets over his last four games with 7.3 per game compared to his 5.9 season average.
As a mirror opposite, Brandin Cooks gets a great matchup this week against the Jets who rank 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass and 19th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. The issue here is that he has trended down with his targets lately with an average of 5.5 over the last four games and the game script will most definitely not be in his favor as the Pats are huge 15.5 point favorites.
After scoring in back to back games, Alshon Jeffery recorded his worst game of the season catching zero balls on just two targets against the Raiders. He and Nick Foles have not shown the same chemistry as he and Carson Wentz did for most of the season. The Eagles have also locked up the #1 seed and although he will start the game, it is unclear how many snaps he and the rest of the starters will see against the Cowboys. Best to fade Jeffery here.
Jamison Crowder played with a hamstring injury last week and seen just 45% of the snaps but came through catching all four of his targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. He has been the most targeted player on the Redskins this season(6.8 per game) and with an extra week to get back to full health should be able to exploit an excellent matchup vs. the Giants who rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 21st in DK points per game allowed to wideouts.
Martavis Bryant also gets an upside matchup in Week 17 against a Browns team that ranks 29th in DVOA vs. the pass. He should also see some added target share this week with Antonio Brown still sidelined with an injury while the Steelers are still fighting with the Patriots for the #1 seed in the AFC. This is one tier that I will be splitting a few a players in multi-lineup contests.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jamison Crowder, Stefon Diggs, Martavis Bryant
Tier 6
Zach Ertz has been the most reliable option in this tier averaging 7.2 targets and 15.5 DK points per game but will be hard to trust this week as the Eagles have wrapped up the #1 seed and it’s unclear how much the starters will play this week. The same sentiment holds true for Ertz’ teammate Nelson Agholor who could also see limited snaps. Another big question mark in this tier is the status of Sterling Shepard as he was not present at practice on Thursday and with the Giants having nothing to play for, it is unlikely he sees the field and if he does it will likely be limited snaps.
I talked about the Lions matchup this week with Marvin Jones and the same holds true for Golden Tate who has seen steady targets all season(7.5 per game) and sits with 899 yards and four touchdowns. I do prefer Jones slightly as he gets the better matchup vs. Damarious Randall while Tate, in the slot, will see quite a bit of Morgan Burnett who is rated quite a bit higher than Randall over at PFF. Both are definitely in play if Stafford is going to be playing the entire game.
Like I have mentioned, the Eagles will likely sit most of their starters, at least in the second half which presents an excellent matchup for the Cowboys this week and Vegas agrees as they have Dallas sitting as road favorites. Dak Prescott even mentioned he will be damned to finish the season after last week’s performance so I fully expect the offense to play the entire game and try and end 2017 on a high note. Roll out Dez with confidence.
Josh Gordon has continued to trend down since his return and posted his worst game of the season(4 games) last week in Chicago with just two catches on eight targets for 19 yards. He is getting the targets(9 per game) but gets an even tougher matchup this week facing a Steelers team that ranks 7th in DVOA vs. the pass and DK points per game allowed to wideouts. More bad news as the Steelers also have the #1 seed to play for so you can expect a strong performance against their division rivals.
With Aaron Jones not practicing this week and doubtful to play in Sunday’s finale, it opens up the workload for Jamaal Williams once again making him a nice target this week. He has flashed big upside since taking over as the Packers top back mid-season and posted one 100+ yard game and scored in three straight games from Week 12-14. He will likely see 20+ touches this week in a terrific matchup vs. the Lions who rank 28th in DVOA vs. the rush and 31st in DK points per game allowed to running backs.
Top Targets in this Tier – Golden Tate, Dez Bryant, Jamaal Williams
Tier 7
Jordan Howard has been a boom or bust play all season. He has flashed big upside as he has rushed for 100 or more yards five times and scored multiple touchdowns three times but also scored 10 or fewer DK points seven times. I have a strong feeling that the latter will be the case in Week 17 as he gets a terrible matchup against a Vikings defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game(87.1) and fewest DK points per game to running backs. Probably best to fade him here. Robby Anderson is also on my fade list in this tier as he is not only questionable with an illness but has also done nothing since Josh McCown went down in Week 13. Lamar Miller has been a huge disappointment this season as he has not topped 75 yards once and comes in with three straight weeks without getting to 10 DK points and was out-touched and out-performed by Alfred Blue on Christmas day. Safe to say Miller is also a fade in Week 17.
After starting off the tier with three fades it doesn’t leave many options but there is some value with the Vikings players this week as they have the #2 seed in the NFC to play for and the starters will likely play the entire game unless it gets out of hand. The matchup for the running backs is a tough one as the Bears have allowed the ninth-fewest yards per game(105.5) and rank 9th in DK points per game allowed to the position. Because of this, I lean Jerick McKinnon who has been far and away the receiving back this season with 4.5 targets per game compared to Murray’s 1.1 per game. On the season, McKinnon has 51 receptions for 421 yards and a touchdown. As for Kyle Rudolph, he has been dealing with n ankle injury all December and was once again limited in practice this week. On top of that, he gets a tough matchup as the Bears rank 12th in DK points per game allowed to tight ends. For receiving options, I prefer Diggs and Thielen for the Vikings. SKOL!
I talked about Jacoby Brissett and T.Y. Hilton as a nice stack earlier and another option on the Colts this week is tight end, Jack Doyle. He is tied with Hilton for the team lead in targets(6.9) and gets a terrific matchup vs. the Texans who have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game(246.3) and rank 26th in DK points per game to the tight end position.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jerick McKinnon, Jack Doyle
Tier 8
If Duke Johnson gets in a full practice this week after being limited Wednesday he makes an intriguing option as he has been a nice PPR back all season. He is fourth in receiving among running backs with 68 receptions for 618 yards and three touchdowns. Will Fuller cannot be trusted as he has fallen off a cliff since Deshaun Watson went down before Week 9. Bilal Powell is a nice option here in this tier as he is closing his season out on a high note with touchdowns in three of his last four games and coming off his second 100+ yard game last week vs. the Chargers.
The Colts may not have anything to play for in Week 17 but Frank Gore has a milestone to hit. Via Evan Silva on Twitter:
4 players have rushed for 1,000+ yards in 10 seasons:
Emmitt Smith
Barry Sanders
Walter Payton
Curtis MartinFrank Gore needs 139 yards vs HOU to become the 5th.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) December 26, 2017
I fully expect the Colts to feed him the ball this week. Another option who is fully in play here is Randall Cobb of the Packers. With Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams very doubtful to play it will open up a ton of targets and Cobb could very well be the beneficiary giving him a high floor and ceiling vs. the Lions.
Top Targets in this Tier – Bilal Powell, Frank Gore, Randall Cobb
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16
Tier 1
Only three options in the first tier but the decision will not be an easy one should be running just one lineup this week. Todd Gurley trails Kareem Hunt by just 13 yards rushing this season but has 190 more receiving yards and eight more total touchdowns giving him 25.1 DraftKings points per game this season and right in the middle of the league MVP talks. He is coming off a monster game where he rushed for 152 yards and three touchdowns and also added another touchdown through the air leading the Rams to a huge victory over their division rivals, the Seahawks. Kareem Hunt is also coming off a big game last week with 155 yards rushing and a touchdown and also added nine receptions for 51 yards and a touchdown through the air. It seems the Chiefs just needed to get Andy Reid away from making play calls for Hunt to get back on track as that is now back to back weeks with 100+ yards rushing.
Outside of Week 14 where he got injured, Alvin Kamara has been extremely consistent this season with seven games with 20 or more DraftKings points and sits with 1,336 all-purpose yards and 12 touchdowns. Looking at the matchups, all three of their opponents rank in the top third of the league in rushing yards per game allowed but Tennessee is the only one of the three to hold opponents under 100 yards per game and they also rank 4th overall when looking at DraftKings points per game to running backs.
The game script definitely favors Gurley, however, and he has proven to be near matchup proof at this point. When looking at DraftKings points per game allowed, Hunt has the best matchup of the three as the Dolphins rank 28th in that category and they have also allowed the most rushing yards per game(109.9). The DVOA ranks tell another story as the Falcons rank 30th in that category against the rush which is great news for Kamara who is averaging 6.6 yards per carry this season. The only knock on Kamara is that he is sharing a backfield with Mark Ingram who is also having a heck of a season. Using FanShareSports early in the week, Hunt and Gurley are neck and neck at the top and should command ownership in this tier and for me, I will be running about 45% of each with a little mix of Kamara in some contrarian lineups.
Top Targets in this Tier – Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt
Tier 2
The second tier brings us two of the six running backs in the league who have already broke 1,000 yards rushing this season. I mentioned in the last tier how the Saints have been splitting the reps almost down the middle between rookie Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram and both are having tremendous season leading the Saints to the #1 overall DVOA rank in rushing. While the Falcons rank 12th when looking at DraftKings points allowed to running backs, they have been much worse on the DVOA scale ranking 30th this season. The Saints are currently 5.5 point favorites in a game with a 52.5 Vegas Total which could lead to another run-heavy game script for the Saints. While the game script for LeSean McCoy is not in his favor as the Bills are 11.5 point dogs to the Patriots, he has a lot going for him in this matchup. Both teams rank Top 10 in pace and McCoy always gets his share of touches in the offense regardless of game script. The Patriots have also been pretty bad against running backs as well as they have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game(122.3) and rank dead last in DVOA vs. the rush.
Up next, we have two elite receivers facing each other this week. The bad news for both of them is that both teams rank Top 12 in receiving yards per game and Top 15 in DVOA vs. the pass and both have elite corners in Marshon Lattimore(NO) and Desmond Trufant(ATL) who rank near the top of PFF’s cornerback rankings. The good news is that both receivers are getting targeted a ton in their respective offenses with Julio at 9.0 per game while Thomas is getting 9.7 per game. Julio leads with 1,215 yards while Thomas has 1,085 but Thomas has the slight edge in DraftKings points per game thanks to scoring two more touchdowns. This game is projected to be a shootout and the only game this week with a Vegas Total exceeding 50 so I don’t think you can go wrong with either here in this spot.
Top Targets in this Tier – Micheal Thomas, Mark Ingram
Tier 3
Gronk returned from his one-game suspension last week and went off again posting 168 yards on nine receptions. That gives him back to back weeks with 100 or more receiving yards and three straight weeks with 25 or more DraftKings points. I wouldn’t go as far to say he gets a great matchup this week as the Bills rank 12th in DVOA vs. the pass but have been much worse against tight ends than wideouts as they rank 22nd in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position vs. 9th against wideouts. Gronk is pretty matchup proof as well. The other tight end in this tier, Travis Kelce, sits second to Gronk in receiving yards this season with 991 but has the same amount of touchdowns with seven. He has also slightly out-targeted Gronk this season with 8.1 per game but more importantly this week, he gets a way better matchup. Not only do the Dolphins rank 27th in DVOA vs. the pass but they have been terrible vs. tight ends ranking 28th overall in DraftKings points allowed to the position.
We also get two runnings backs in this tier who have been very productive lately. Kenyan Drake took over the #1 role in the Dolphins backfield when Jay Ajayi was traded to Philly and has heated up lately with 100 yards or a touchdown in four straight games for an average of 22.4 DraftKings points per game. The matchup is a bit tricky this week as the Chiefs do rank 31st in DVOA vs. the rush but 11th in DraftKings points per game to the position. The biggest knock on Drake this week could be the game script as the Dolphins are currently 10 point road underdogs and projected for just over 16 points. Drake will undoubtedly be the lowest owned player in this tier. Melvin Gordon, despite only breaking 100 yds twice this season, has been very productive ranking 7th in rushing yards (931) and has topped 75 yards in three straight games and has scored a touchdown in back to back games. The matchup is so-so as the Jets rank 13th in DVOA vs. the rush and 14th in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs but he should get plenty of volume as the Chargers are 6.5 point favorites and projected to score around 25 points this week.
Top Targets in this Tier – Travis Kelce, Melvin Gordon
Tier 4
All four quarterbacks in this tier are at home and all of them beside Drew Brees are huge double-digit favorites. Looking at each player’s last four weeks performance, it has been Cam Newton and Alex Smith who have been far and away the best quarterbacks as both are averaging over 21 DraftKings points per game. Smith’s performance is a bit skewed as he had a huge week 13 scoring 40.6 DK points but didn’t exceed 20 in either of the other three weeks. Cam has been much more consistent with performances of 31.4, 15.5, 20.4, and 17.5 and he has also topped 20 DK points in 50% of his starts this season. He adds a ton of value using his rushing ability and leads all quarterbacks with 643 yards on the ground with five rushes of 20+ yards and five touchdowns.
Despite struggling recently with just two touchdowns over his last three games, Tom Brady still leads the league in passing while averaging 297 yards per game and trails on Carson Wentz and Russell Wilson in touchdown passes. As for Drew Brees, he has not thrown for 300 yards in four straight weeks and has only done so three times this season while throwing for three touchdowns just once and most of that can be contributed to the elite run game that Saints possess. When it comes down to matchups, Cam Newton clearly gets the best of them facing a Bucs team that has allowed a league-high 271.3 yards and ranks 29th in DVOA vs. the pass. Next best matchup goes to Alex Smith who faces a Dolphins team that sits mid-pack when looking at yards per game allowed (222.6) but ranks 27th in DVOA vs. the pass. Of the four, Tom Brady has the worst matchup on paper going against a Bills defense that ranks 12th in DVOA vs. the pass and 4th overall in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position.
Top Target in this Tier – Cam Newton, Alex Smith
Tier 5
Tier 5 gives us four quarterbacks who are all playing on the road this week and all but Matt Ryan are favorites. Matthew Stafford leads the way this season with 18.8 DraftKings points per game but it has been Phillip Rivers crushing value lately averaging 21.6 DraftKings points per game over his last four thanks to posting 20+ in three of those games. No other quarterback in this tier has more than one and Matt Ryan has zero after back to back performances of under 10 DraftKings points.
Rivers and Goff have the best matchups of the four as the Jets rank 22nd in DVOA vs. the pass and 27th in DK points per game allowed while the Titans rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 17th in DK points per game allowed to the position. Ryan gets the worst matchup in this tier facing the Saints who rank 4th in DVOA vs. the pass and 13thin DK points allowed while Stafford’s matchup is in the middle with the Bengals ranking 18th in DVOA vs. the pass and 11th in DK points allowed to the position but have definitely been trending down lately allowing quarterbacks to score an average of 21.1 DK points per game.
Top Targets in this Tier – Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford
Tier 6
Three of the four wide receivers (Hill, Funchess, Cooks) teams in this tier are double-digit favorites which could work against their game scripts a little bit but it will be hard to avoid some of the matchups. For instance, Devin Funchess faces a Bucs team that has allowed the most DraftKings points per game this season. He could also be lower owned here coming off a one-catch week for just 19 yards. The concern Funchess this week is the shoulder injury that has been nagging him as he was held out of practice on Wednesday. If you are looking for consistency then don’t overlook Tyreke Hill in this spot as he has tallied double-digit DK points in six straight and eight of his last 10 games, twice going over 25 points. Over the past four weeks, he has also seen an uptick in his targets(8 per game) and sees a matchup vs. the Dolphins who rank 27th in DVOA vs. the pass.
On the flip side, Brandin Cooks has been trending down lately averaging just six targets per game and has exceeded 75 yards just once in that time. Robert Woods made his return last week after being held out for three weeks due to injury and looked catching six of his seven targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. The Rams are 6.5 point favorites and although Todd Gurley has been red hot, they may need to throw a bit more as the Titans have been much worse against the pass this season ranking 24th in DVOA and 23rd in DraftKings points per game to wideouts.
Both running backs in this tier are in great spots this week as their teams (Panthers, Patriots) are both double-digit home favorites. Dion Lewis is likely in for a bit bigger role this week with Rex Burkhead out a couple weeks with a knee sprain. That is good news considering he has already been getting a nice run with double-digit carries in eight of his last nine games. He also gets an elite matchup vs. the Bills who have allowed 122 rushing yards per game (8th most) and the most DraftKings points per game to running backs this season. Christian McCaffrey leads all running backs with an average of 7.2 targets per game and has been a PPR star with double-digit fantasy points in 11 of his 14 games, going over 20 DK points five times.
Top Targets in this Tier – Dion Lewis, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreke Hill
Tier 7
I will start with the wideouts in this tier and not only does Jarvis Landry lead them all with an average of 16.3 DK points per game this season, he also gets the best matchup this week. He will be facing the Chiefs who have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game and while they rank 17th in DVOA vs. pass, they rank 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wide receivers. You also never have to worry about usage with Landry as he is one of just three players in 2017 to average double-digit targets each week (10.3).
The Bengals top wideout, A.J. Green, is not far behind averaging 8.8 targets per game and has been trending up lately with 10 targets per game over his last four but is coming off a down week where Xavier Rhodes shut him down with just two catches for 30 yards. Things don’t get any easier for Green this week as he will likely see a ton of Darius Slay who ranks as a Top 10 corner on Pro Football Focus.
On the other side of the ball, we have Marvin Jones Jr. who has been extremely consistent lately recording double-digit fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games with 20 or more in four of those games. While the Bengals rank 3rd in DK points per game allowed to wideouts, they have struggled a ton lately allowing a 100-yard receiver in three straight weeks (four total). Josh Gordon has been targeted 27 times in his three games since returning to the Browns and scored once but has yet to have that monster game we are all waiting for, maybe it’s the fact he is now playing sober (boom).
With Tevin Coleman out last week, Devonta Freeman got 24 carries but wasn’t overly impressive with 91 yards (3.8 per carry) but saved his fantasy day with a touchdown. This week it appears Coleman will be back in the mix which will limit Freeman’s carries but the Falcons are currently underdogs which could help him with some targets in the passing game. Jordan Howard has been up and down all season with four performances of 20+ DK points but has also put up six performances under 10 DK points. This week he faces a Browns team that ranks #1 in DVOA vs. the rush but have been trending down lately. The game script could definitely be in his favor as the Bears are currently 6.5 point favorites.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jarvis Landry, Marvin Jones Jr, Jordan Howard
Tier 8
While Marvin Jones has been the consistent piece of the Lions receiving core, Golden Tate has been hit and miss. He has tallied double-digit DK points twice in his last four games but also posted six DK points in the other two games. I mentioned the matchup earlier vs. the Bengals who have allowed four 100-yard receivers in the last three weeks so Tate is fully in play this week.
Robby Anderson was limited in Wednesday’s practice and even if he plays, he should be avoided as he is likely shadowed by PFF’s #1 ranked corner in Casey Hayward. Demaryius Thomas is on my radar this week and has been fairly productive lately catching 20 of his 38 targets for 207 yards and a touchdown. The problem this week is the matchup vs. the Redskins who rank 8th in DVOA vs. the pass and 8th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts.
Cooper Kupp has not been the most consistent fantasy option this season and a lot of that has to do with Todd Gurley running over defenses but Kupp is in a nice spot this week vs. the Titans who rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 23rd in DK points allowed to wideouts. With Julio Jones normally getting a ton of the opposing defenses attention, Mohamed Sanu has thrived on the other side lately with 20+ DK points in two of his last three games. Stay tuned for the injury status, however, as he was limited on Wednesday with a knee injury.
Bengals rookie running back, Joe Mixon, was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and likely to be cleared by the league to return this week. Should he get back on the field, he gets a nice matchup vs. the Lions who have allowed 111 yards rushing per game and rank 29th overall in DK points per game allowed to running backs.
Top Targets in this Tier – Golden Tate, Cooper Kupp, Joe Mixon(if he starts)
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 10
Draftkings NFL & Cash GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 10
Week 10 of the NFL features four teams on bye, and three of the four are teams that we generally like to use players from their offense. The Ravens, Chiefs, Raiders, and Eagles are on bye. Teams that are also not on the Draftkings main slate are the Seahawks, Cardinals, Patriots, Broncos, Dolphins, and Panthers. The slate features three teams that are more than 10 point favorites in the Lions (-13), Rams (-11.5), and the Steelers (-10.5).
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Quarterbacks:
There are four teams implied to score more than 25 points this week, which is generally the mark we like to target for QBs. The Rams lead the league in scoring and lead the slate with a 28.5 implied total. The Lions are second with a similar projection at 28.25. The Steelers and Falcons are both implied to score about 27 points. These QBs should lead the pack in ownership this week a the QB position.
Matthew Stafford (DK $6,800) – Stafford is the third highest priced QB on the main slate and faces the Browns who allowed the league’s worst aFPA (Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed) (20.4) to quarterbacks, per 4for4. Stafford is coming off of a 25 point performance against a bad Packers secondary. Stafford has thrown for over 300 yards in his last three games and has reached value in each of those starts. Stafford is still relatively priced down due to the fact he played on Monday night and is at $6,800. The Lions are implied to score the second highest points on the slate, and because of their running back committee, Stafford typically accounts for all the team’s points. Stafford is a safe cash play and is also viable in GPP’s.
Ben Roethlisberger (DK $6,600) – For $200 less, you can end up with Big Ben who is in a great spot this week. He goes up against a Colts defense that has been vulnerable to opposing quarterbacks when their team was implied to score more than 24 points. The Colts rank 25th in the league in aFPA, per 4for4 and Roethlisberger, is coming off of a bye. My concern here with Ben as a cash play is that the Steelers are on the road. Ben historically struggles on the road and quite frankly hasn’t been good this season for DFS. Ben has only hit value once this season but comes in with the most upside of all the quarterbacks. I’d use Ben as a GPP play only and find the extra $200 to get up to Stafford.
Value Play
Marcus Mariota (DK, $5,800) – An exciting value play is Marcus Mariota. I always like playing Mariota for his rushing upside, and now that he has his Chris Davis back he has more weapons at his disposal. Mariota goes up against a Bengals defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in aFPA. He’s failed to meet value five of his last six games, but the bright side is that you get him at a $600 discount. At $5,800 he only needs 17 points to hit value, and we’ve seen Mariota hit that earlier this season with Davis on the field. Mariota is a sneaky value GPP play that can help you fit in stud running backs.
Cash game plays:
M. Stafford, D. Prescott, T. Taylor, M. Ryan
Gpp plays:
(all of the above) B. Roethlisberger, M. Mariota, E. Manning
Running Backs:
This is a FANTASTIC week to pay up for running backs! Le’Veon Bell is the top-priced back at $9,800 on the road. Elliott and Gurley follow with an $8,800 and $8,700 price tag, respectfully. And then we have a slight drop off in price with Fournette ($8,400) and McCoy ($8,300). If I’m ranking these, I’d go Elliott, Gurley, Bell, McCoy, Fournette.
Ezekiel Elliott (DK $8,800) – Elliott again avoided suspension for yet another week. While that’s great for DFS, it’s a huge headache for season long. Fortunately, this write up is for DFS and Zeke is in another great spot. Zeke failed to reach value last week against the Chiefs, but outside of last week, he’s been a monster the two weeks before that. Zeke has 88 touches the past three weeks and has six touchdowns to show for the volume. This week he’s going up against the Falcons who allow the 6th most points to opposing running backs in PPR formats. They just let Christian McCaffrey score 20.4 PPR. That’s why I like Elliott; the Falcons are among the worst defenses in the league to give up points to pass-catching running backs. However, for Elliott, there is a concern being that he only has five targets and two catches in the last three games. I like Elliott more for GPP’s, but Gurley is by far the safer cash game play. I just have a feeling that the game flow could benefit Zeke getting around 35 touches.
Todd Gurley (DK $8,700) – If you like to go for trends then, Gurley is the obvious play over Zeke. Gurley checks all the boxes you’d want for a running back. He’s at home, favored by 11.5 points, and his team is implied to score the most points on the slate. Gurley has seen 12 targets out of the backfield and has caught seven passes for 97 yards. If there’s any concern here is that Gurley’s matchup is tough on paper. The Texans have allowed the least PPR fantasy points to running backs this season (15.7). The Texans rank second behind the Vikings in allowing opposing running backs to reach value with a -5.7 +/- rating per Fantasy Labs. The matchup is tough, but the Rams could get up early and feed Gurley so I can see him getting 25-30 targets.
Jordan Howard (DK $6,100) – Jordan Howard has received a lot of volume in the last four weeks. Howard has received 99 carries and has gained 410 yards in that four-week span. He’s getting a lot of work for a back at 6k and should eclipse 25+ touches. The issue with Howard is that he’s not very active on the receiving end. But in this case, I’m okay with giving up that receiving equity to gain the rushing attempts against a Packers defense that has given up the 10th most rushing TDs. Howard is a nice cash game play as a home favorite.
Carlos Hyde (DK $6,300) – Sticking around the same price range, Carlos Hyde has also been getting an uptick in touches since their rookie quarterback took over. Last week Hyde went for 4x value when he had a team-high 11 targets and caught nine balls for 84 yards to go along with his 12 carries. The 49ers pass blocking is terrible, and they rank in the top 10 in run blocking. In a game that should remain close, the 49ers could lean on Hyde over Bethard’s arm against the Giants who rank 21st in aFPA to running backs.
Bilal Powell (DK $4,000) – Forte missed practice on Wednesday. If Forte is out, Powell will see an uptick in snaps and targets. He’s your ideal back in a PPR format so if Forte’s limited he’s worth a shot.
Cash:
E. Elliott, T. Gurley, L. Fournette, J. Howard, O. Darkwa
Gpp:
(all of above) L. Bell, L. McCoy, L. Fournette, M. Gordon, C. McCaffery, M. Ingram, T. Rawls
Wide Receiver:
Julio Jones (DK, $8,000) – Seriously, what is up with Julio this year? I knew the Falcons offense would regress without Kyle Shanahan, but I did not expect Julio to only have one touchdown through week 10. Last week was Julio’s best game in terms of yardage. He saw double-digit targets (12) for only the 3rd time this season and caught half of his targets for 118 yards. The Cowboys rank 24th in the league in aFPA allowed to wide receivers so if Julio is going to get going you’d expect it to come in a home game that could go back and forth. This game has the highest over/under on the slate so it also has the potential to shoot out.
Golden Tate (DK $6,800) & Marvin Jones Jr. (DK $6,200) – If we expect Stafford to be the highest owned quarterback on the slate, it’s not a bad idea to bring it back with his two primary receivers. We saw Jones go off against the Packers on Monday night and his price does not reflect it, jumping up only $700. Jones actually leads the team in targets the past 3 games with 44 and Tate is second with 32. Tate is more of the slot receiver that racks up PPR points, while Jones is emerging as the bigger red zone threat. Both are in play here against a Browns defense that doesn’t scare me.
Robert Woods (DK $5,000) – Can I catch lightning in a bottle two weeks in a row? I’m not sure. But the Rams receivers are in a decent spot against the Texans who rank 29th in the league in aFPA to wide receivers. Over the past three games, Woods has taken over the target share for the Rams passing offense. Woods leads the wide receivers with 27 targets, followed by Cooper Kupp with 26 and over-rated Sammy Watkins has 16 in the past three weeks. There isn’t much separation, but Woods has returned value his last four games. The problem is that I will likely get my exposure to this high team total with Gurley and Woods is $1,300 more expensive than the past four games.
Value Receivers (I like these value receivers quite a bit)
Adam Humphries (DK $3,100) – He’s the T.Y. Hilton of this week. Nearly the stone minimum with an increase of snap count and a potential increase in targets with Mike Evans suspended for this game. I’m not sure if he’ll be popular, yet but he’s a clear value play to punt at this position. I’m hesitant because Ryan Fitzpatrick will be throwing him the ball and their team total is very low at 20 points.
Corey Davis (DK $4,000) – I’m a fan of Corey Davis for the talent he has. He had a very promising first week of the season, receiving ten targets and catching more than half of those but his progression was slowed down by injury. Last week he returned and played 75% of the snaps. He received five targets and caught two passes. I expect Davis to be on the field more and if you’re playing Mariota, why not stack him with Davis for some salary relief.
Marqise Lee (DK $4,100) – Lee has been the biggest beneficiary once Allen Robinson went down. Since week 2, Lee leads the team in targets with 54 and is averaging over seven targets per game. This week he faces the Chargers who are 17th in aFPA to wide receivers.
Cash:
A. Brown, J. Julio, G. Tate/M. Jones, A. Thielen, A. Humphries, M. Lee
Gpp:
D. Hopkins, D. Bryant, S. Diggs, J. Kearse, R. Woods, J. Smith-Schuster, S. Shepard
Tight End:
Eric Ebron (DK $3,100) – Again, back to the Lions passing attack. But this is just following my general rule of thumb. Which team is playing the Browns? Which tight end is starting for them? Play that tight end. Ebron has only scored once this season, but the Browns have given up 6 to tight ends this season.
Garrett Celek (DK $2,500) – Starting tight end George Kittle has already been ruled out for this game, pushing Celek into the starting lineup. In 3 games since starting for the 49ers, Cj Beathard has targeted his tight ends 18 times. The Giants are second to last behind the Browns for most aFPA to tight ends.
Cash:
E. Engram, C. Brate, E. Ebron, G. Celek
Gpp:
V. Davis, D. Walker, H. Henry,
Defense:
Defenses are the most volatile picks in a DFS lineup; I often recommend going with whatever is best for your roster construction. This week there are three teams as big favorites and are viable plays. The Browns, Packers, Colts, Texans, Bengals, Chargers, 49ers, and Bucs are all implied to score less than 20 points. Targeting any one of their opponents should be fine for a defense to play.
Cash:
Tennessee, Los Angeles, Chicago, Detroit
Gpp:
Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, New York Giants
Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations for Week 10
*Mike Barner*
Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations – Week 10
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There are only four teams on a bye this week, leaving you with more options for your DFS entry. Thank goodness as very valuable players continue to go down with injuries. Let’s examine some of the better options taking the field for Week 10. Put your favorite daily fantasy football recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
**QUARTERBACKS**
Matthew Stafford vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Ford Field
DraftKings = $6,800
FanDuel = $8,200
Stafford has put up some monster numbers of late as he has thrown for 1,096 yards and five touchdowns over this last three games. He has done an excellent job cutting down on turnovers as well as he only has four total interceptions this season. The Lions have continued to struggle to run the ball, leaving the offensive burden on the shoulders of Stafford. This a great match up at home against a Browns defense that is tied for the third most passing touchdowns allowed (16) this season.
Josh McCown vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
DraftKings = $6,100
FanDuel = $7,400
Thought to be one of the worst teams in the NFL heading into this season, McCown and the Jets have been a pleasant surprise. Even though he has limited weapons on offense, McCown has thrown for 1,980 yards and 13 touchdowns overall. He also has a career-high 70.4% completion percentage. Not to be overlooked, he has chipped in three rushing touchdowns as well. The Buccaneers have one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL, making McCown a viable option for your lineup again this week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. New York Jets
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
DraftKings = $4,900
FanDuel = $6,100
Fitzpatrick takes over as the starting quarterback this week in place of Jameis Winston who is dealing with a shoulder injury. Fitzpatrick has actually come into games twice this season due to a Winston injury, throwing for 358 yards and four touchdowns total. This is a favorable match up against the Jets as they have allowed the most passing touchdowns (19) in the NFL this season. Throw in the fact that he will be highly motivated to succeed against his old team and you get a very intriguing dirt cheap DFS option.
**RUNNING BACKS**
Le’Veon Bell vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
DraftKings = $9,800
FanDuel = $9,400
Bell had a relatively quiet performance for his standards in his last game against the Lions as he complied 76 rushing yards, five receiving yards on two receptions and one rushing touchdown. That just goes to show you how high his floor is though. Week 10 brings a great match up against the Colts who have allowed the most rushing touchdowns (10) in the NFL this season. Expect a heavy work load and big numbers from Bell.
Alvin Kamara vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – New Era Stadium
DraftKings = $6,900
FanDuel = $7,000
Kamara had his best game of the season against the Buccaneers last week as he produced 152 total yards and two touchdowns. Now with a significant role in the Saints offense, Kamara has at least 87 total yards in four of his last five games. His big play ability gives him significant value as he is averaging 6.0 yards per carry and 9.0 yards per reception. The Bills allowed 96 total yards and two touchdowns to Jets running back Matt Forte last week, leaving Kamara with significant upside in this game as well.
Orleans Darkwa vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
DraftKings = $4,500
FanDuel = $5,300
If you watched the beginning of the Giants game last week, it was clear they wanted to establish the run early with Darkwa. He rattled off some nice gains, but ultimately saw his workload limited for the game when it became a blowout. Even with the lopsided score, Darkwa had 16 carries for 71 yards and two receptions for eight yards. It’s tough to be a running back on an offense with so few quality receivers to keep defenses honest, but Darkwa still has at least 69 rushing yards in three of his last four games. Against an equally bad team in the 49ers, Darkwa could be in for a significant workload Sunday.
**WIDE RECEIVERS**
Antonio Brown vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
DraftKings = $9,500
FanDuel = $9,300
Brown has been relatively quiet the last two games, hauling in 135 total receiving yards. One of those games came against the Bengals tough pass defense, so don’t get overly concerned. He had at least 155 receiving yards in each of the two games prior to this recent lull. Week 10 brings a match up against a Colts defense that is allowing the second most net passing yards per game. Look for Brown to get back on track with a big performance.
JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
DraftKings = $5,600
FanDuel = $6,500
Smith-Schuster exploded in his last game against the Lions as he hauled in seven of 10 targets for 193 yards and a touchdown. He has clearly surpassed Martavis Bryant on the Steelers depth chart and has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games. It’s not always a comfortable feeling to like two wide receivers on the same team in a week, but the Colts pass defense is that bad. The price is right to roll with Smith-Schuster.
Marvin Jones Jr. vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Ford Field
DraftKings = $6,200
FanDuel = $6,400
To say Jones is on a hot streak is an understatement. It’s no coincidence that Stafford’s increased production over the last three games has had a positive impact on Jones as Jones has 331 receiving yards and three touchdowns over that stretch. The key for Jones is that he saw at least 11 targets in all three of those games. Stafford and Jones are locked in at the moment, so look for Jones to take advantage of the Browns this week as well.
Sterling Shepard vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
DraftKings = $5,500
FanDuel = $5,700
Shepard returned from injury last week and caught five of nine targets for 70 yards against the Rams. It could have been an even bigger day if quarterback Eli Manning hadn’t battled accuracy issues throughout the game. With so few quality options left at wide receiver for the Giants, Shepard is going to get all the targets he can handle over the rest of the season. Even on a bad offense, Shepard provides value at this price based on volume alone.
**TIGHT ENDS**
Evan Engram vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
DraftKings = $6,200
FanDuel = $7,400
With all the injuries the Giants have dealt with, their rookie tight end Engram is probably the most talented skill player they have left. He has been a target monster of late, receiving 29 targets over the last three games. He has cashed those in by producing at least 60 receiving yards and one touchdown in all three contests. Expect him to be heavily involved again Sunday and be one of the best tight end options for Week 10.
Garrett Celek vs. New York Giants
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
DraftKings = $2,500
FanDuel = $4,500
The Giants can’t defend tight ends as they have allowed 565 receiving yards and nine touchdowns to them this season. Last week they gave up a touchdown to tight end Tyler Higbee, who only had 14 receptions and no touchdowns for the entire season. George Kittle has already been ruled out with an injury this week, leaving Celek to feast on the Giants. He won’t cost you much, so he’s worth the minimal risk based on the match up.
**DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS**
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – EverBank Field
DraftKings = $3,900
FanDuel = $5,200
The Jaguars defense has been excellent all season as the lead the NFL in sacks (35) and are tied for the third most interceptions (10). They have scored a touchdown in three of the last five games and have allowed a total of 31 points over their last four games. Keep going to the well with the Jaguars, it’s not even close to running dry.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Stadium – Soldier Field
DraftKings = $3,000
FanDuel = $4,300
The Bears defense only has four interceptions this season, but they have been able to get to the quarterback with 23 sacks. The main reason I like them this week is that they get to play against a Packers offense that is a shell of it’s normal self with Aaron Rodgers injured. Brett Hundley hasn’t thrown for a touchdown in either of his last two games, which would have been complete disasters had he not at least rushed for two touchdowns. The Packers will continue to struggle to score points, making the Bears one of the best cheap options for the week.