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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/24/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
May special! Use Code PAMLB30 at checkout

There aren’t a lot of options in DFS with only eight games in the majors Thursday. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/24/18

Charlie Morton vs. Cleveland Indians
Stadium – Progressive Field
FanDuel = $10,200
DraftKings = $11,400

Morton has done a tremendous job keeping runners off base this year, posting a 0.93 WHIP. His 3.35 FIP indicates his 1.94 ERA won’t hold, but he’s going to continue to have plenty of success by allowing so few base runners. His 97.2 mph average fastball velocity is the highest of his career and he has a 13.3% swinging-strike rate, which has led to a lofty 11.3 K/9. He had success against the Indians in his last start, allowing one run to go along with eight strikeouts in seven innings. He’s the one elite strikeout pitcher taking the mound Thursday, so it makes a lot of sense to pay up for him.

Luis Castillo vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $7,800

Castillo looked primed for an excellent season after excelling in 15 starts last year, but he has a 5.61 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP so far. A lot of that damage came early on as he allowed at least four runs in four of his first six starts. He’s been much better in his last four outings, allowing eight runs (seven earned) to go along with 26 strikeouts in 22.2 innings. His swinging-strike rate is actually higher this year at 15.2%, so expect his ERA to continue to decrease as the season wears on. His price still hasn’t jumped up yet, leaving him with significant upside.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/24/18

Matt Olson vs. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $3,800

Despite being only 32 years old, Hernandez has already thrown over 2,500 innings during his career. He’s clearly not the same pitcher that he was in his prime and his 90.5 mph average fastball velocity this season that is the lowest he has ever posted. He’s not fooling many hitters with an 8.0% swinging-strike rate, which has been a major factor in his bloated 5.53 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Olson has a career .393 wOBA against right-handed pitchers and could give Hernandez plenty of trouble.

Jesus Aguilar vs. Steven Matz, New York Mets
Stadium – Citi Field
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $4,100

Eric Thames (thumb) is still on the DL, but Ryan Braun was activated Wednesday. That could cut into Aguilar’s playing time, but the Brewers might be wise to keep him in their lineup Thursday. He’s been swinging the bat well, going 8-for-20 with four home runs and nine RBI in his last five games. He also excels against left-handed pitching with a .355 wOBA against them for his career.

Others to consider: Justin Smoak (first base) and Salvador Perez (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/24/18

Whit Merrifield  vs. Austin Bibens-Dirkx, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,500

Merrifield is in a mini-slump, failing to a record a hit in four straight games. He’s batting .281 this year and is a .285 hitter for his career, so don’t expect this to last too long. Bibens-Dirkx will be making his first start in the majors this season and hasn’t exactly been dominating Triple-A, posting a 3.72 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 7.4 K/9. He struggled with a 4.67 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 4.9 K/9 in 69.1 innings with the Rangers last year as well, leaving this as a great opportunity for Merrifield to get back into the hit column.

Yangervis Solarte vs. Nick Tropeano, Los Angeles Angels
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $3,500

Solarte might be one of the more underrated players in the league. He’s batting a respectable .265 this season and has hit for plenty of power with 11 home runs and nine doubles. He doesn’t strikeout out much with a career 11.8% strikeout rate and can play multiple positions. His splits are fairly even from both sides of the plate, so there is no need to platoon him either. He has at least two hits in each of his last four games and has hit homers in back-to-back contests as well.

Others to consider: Jed Lowrie and Jonathan Schoop

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/24/18

Mike Moustakas vs. Austin Bibens-Dirkx, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,400

Moustakas is in a bit of a power drought, failing to go deep in 14 straight games. He still has 10 home runs on the season overall though after hitting a career-high 38 dingers last year. Bibens-Dirkx allowed 1.8 HR/9 last year and Moustakas has been much better against righties, so this could be the day he breaks his streak.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa vs. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,300

Duffy has been getting shelled this year, posting a 6.88 ERA and 6.44 FIP. He has a 1.73 WHIP and it’s concerning that his .314 BABIP allowed isn’t that high either. Righties have hit him particularly hard with a .426 wOBA. Kiner-Falefa doesn’t have a lot of power, but he’s hitting .260 and has done a nice job overall filling in for Adrian Beltre (hamstring). He’s priced low enough to be a viable option in tournament play.

Others to consider: Eugenio Suarez and Kyle Seager

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/24/18

Jurickson Profar vs. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $3,500

Profar has been a highly thought of prospect coming up through the Rangers system, but he’s yet to have consistent success in the majors. He’s never played more than 90 games in a season and is batting just .231 for his career. Injuries to several players on the Rangers have forced him into regular playing time this year, already appearing in 45 games. He continues to struggle with a .237 average, but he is hitting 7-for-22 with a home run, three doubles and 11 RBI in his last six games. With Duffy on the mound, look for him to continue his hot hitting.

Marcus Semien vs. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $3,900

With Hernandez taking the mound, the Athletics present a viable stacking opportunity. Semien has hit Fernandez well in his career, going 11-for-33 (.333) with four home runs. His overall numbers this season aren’t flashy, but this is the kind of matchup that is hard to pass up.

Others to consider: Manny Machado and Andrelton Simmons

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/24/18

Mike Trout vs. Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $4,800
DraftKings = $5,400

The combination of power and speed that Trout has is certainly impressive, but what stands out to me is that he has 45 walks compared to 41 strikeouts this season. He also has a staggering .444 OBP, which would be his third-straight season with an OBP of at least .441. Estrada is prone to giving up home runs and isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, leaving Trout with a high ceiling one again.

Shohei Ohtani vs. Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,600

In one of the crazier stats of the season, Ohtani has more RBI this season as a hitter (19) than runs he has allowed as a pitcher (15). He is destroying right-handed pitching with a .445 wOBA and all six of his home runs have come against them. Estrada has allowed a .363 wOBA to lefties this year, so stacking both Trout and Ohtani in your outfield could provide a big return.

Scott Schebler vs. Ivan Nova, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,800

When Nova is taking the mound, you want to target left-handed hitters on the opposing team. Not only does Nova have a hard time striking hitters out in general, but he has allowed a wOBA of at least .361 in each of the last three seasons against lefties heading into 2018. This season has been no different with a .376 wOBA allowed to lefties. Schebler has also hit him well in his career, batting .368 (7-for-19) with a home run.

Others to consider: Justin Upton and Adam Jones

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/10/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/10/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

Thursday brings a limited slate of games, but there are still plenty of great options both on the mound and in the batter’s box to take advantage of in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/10/18

Walker Buehler vs. Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $10,500

With the Dodgers dealing with injuries to their starting rotation, Buehler is here to stay. He’s made an immediate impact in his first three starts, posting a 1.13 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 10.7 K/9. He dominated with a 12.4 K/9 during his career in the minors, so his strikeout upside is legitimate. The only real negative you can say about his first three starts is that they came against the Marlins, Giants, and Padres, who are three of the worst offensive teams in baseball. The Reds haven’t been much better though and have the fifth-worst OPS against right-handed pitchers (.671) in baseball, so Buehler may be able to keep his hot streak alive for at least one more start.

Miles Mikolas vs. San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $8,500
DraftKings = $10,200

Mikolas has been impressive in his first action in the majors since 2014 and clearly made significant improvements during his time in Japan. Through six starts this season, he has a 2.70 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. His 7.0 K/9 isn’t great, but he’s shown impeccable control with 0.5 BB/9. He’s pitching deep into games as well, logging at least 6.1 innings in all but one of his outings. The Padres have the third-lowest OPS against righties (.648) and have had trouble scoring runs in general, leaving Mikolas with the potential to provide value again Thursday.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/10/18

Cody Bellinger vs. Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $4,200

After bursting onto the scene last year with a .933 OPS, Bellinger hasn’t hit for much power yet this season, resulting in a .794 OPS. He’s still hitting for a high average and has a 39% hard-hit rate, so he should start slugging more long balls sooner rather than later. He finished with a 140 wRC+ against righties last and has a 142 mark against them so far this season, so facing Mahle could lead to a breakout game.

Justin Bour vs. Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,400

Foltynewicz has made improvements this season, but his 1.35 WHIP is still too high. Left-handed hitters have given him troubles in his career, including Bour, who is 8-for-14 with two home runs against him. Bour is off to a slow start this season, but he still has a .367 wOBA against righties, making him a cost-effective option to consider.

Others to consider: Gary Sanchez (catcher) and Lucas Duda (first base)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/10/18

Whit Merrifield vs. Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,300

Merrifield is batting only .261 this season, but that won’t last for long if he keeps up his 42.6% hard-hit rate. His K% is right in line with his career mark and he’s drawing more walks as well. With Tillman taking the mound, this is going to be a great opportunity to stack Royals in DFS since he has allowed at least four earned runs in all but one of his starts this season.

Jonathan Schoop vs. Ian Kennedy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKinfs = $3,500

In two games since coming off the DL, Schoop is 3-for-9 with a double, two RBI and three runs scored. His slow start and stint on the DL have helped lower his price after a breakout campaign helped plenty of people win money in DFS last year. He doesn’t have the righty/lefty advantage in this matchup, but he’s still priced low enough to potentially use in tournament play.

Others to consider: Gleyber Torres and Eduardo Nunez

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/10/18

Mike Moustakas vs. Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $4,500

Moustakas had the best power season of his career in 2017 with 38 home runs and he hasn’t slowed down this year, slugging 10 homers in 36 games. He’s batting .292 as well and while that seems unsustainable, his .278 BABIP is actually not high. This is a prime opportunity to play him against Tillman, who allowed a .429 wOBA to lefties last year.

Yangervis Solarte vs. Mike Leake, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,900

Solarte has cashed in everyday playing time to bat .271 with nine homers this year. Solarte does a great job limiting his strikeouts, posting an 11.8 K% for his career. He has a .374 wOBA against right-handers this year and Leake has allowed a .366 wOBA to lefties, so Solarte could be an option if you need to save money at third base.

Others to consider: Travis Shaw and Matt Carpenter

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/10/18

Paul DeJong vs. Jordan Lyles, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,000

Lyles has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen this season, logging 19.2 innings across 13 appearances. He did pitch three innings in one appearance earlier this year, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll have built up enough arm strength to pitch deep into this game. He struggled in five starts for the Padres last year, recording a 9.39 ERA and 1.96 WHIP. This could end up being a bullpen day for the Padres, so with several of the top shortstops dealing with difficult matchups Thursday, DeJong becomes a viable option with homer upside.

Chris Taylor vs. Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $3,800

Taylor seemed like a regression candidate heading into this season as his .288 average in 2017 was largely aided by a .361 BABIP. He’s had a bigger drop off than expected this year though, batting .235 with a .284 BABIP. He’ll probably end the season somewhere in the middle and is an important player on a Dodgers team that is now missing their star shortstop in Corey Seager (elbow). Mahle has a 4.92 FIP through seven starts and has been prone to giving up the long ball, leaving Taylor as another shortstop worth considering.

Others to consider: Eduardo Escobar and Jean Segura

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/10/18

Giancarlo Stanton vs. Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox
Stadium – Yankee Stadium
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $5,100

Stanton normally hits lefties well, posting a .430 wOBA against them for his career. This year has been no different with an incredible .621 wOBA against them so far. He already has six home runs in only 34 plate appearance against lefties as well. He’s stepped up in the first two games of this series against the Red Sox and will look for another big performance against Rodriguez as the Yankees go for the sweep.

Jorge Soler vs. Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $4,200

Continuing our stack of Royals’ hitters against Tillman, Soler is another great option. He’s on fire right now, recording at least two hits in five of his last 10 games while also hitting three home runs in that same stretch. Even though Soler has much better numbers this season against lefties than righties, he’s not exactly struggling against righties with a .362 wOBA.

Alex Gordon vs. Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,800

Let’s go to the well against Tillman one more time with Gordon, who is batting .313 in the early going. He is still having troubles against left-handed pitching, but righties have not proven to be nearly as difficult, resulting in a .412 wOBA. Since he will help with your budget as well, it makes a lot of sense to try riding Gordon’s hot streak in this game.

Others to consider: Charlie Blackmon and Christian Yelich

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

Games will be spread throughout the day Wednesday, leaving fewer options than normal if you are playing the evening slate in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/18

Clayton Kershaw vs. Miami Marlins
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $11,400
DraftKings = 14,000

Kershaw is well on his way to another dominant season. Although he is only 1-3 through five starts, he has a sparkling 2.45 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. His strikeouts are slightly down at 9.5 K/9, but with a K/9 of at least 10.4 in four straight seasons, don’t expect that to be a trend that continues much longer. He has also shown impeccable control with a 0.8 BB/9 and throwing a first-pitch strike to 70% of the batters that he has faced. He’s an excellent option regardless of opponent, but he gets an extremely favorable matchup against a Marlins offense that has hit the fewest home runs (14) and has the third-lowest batting average (.223) in baseball.

Jake Faria vs. Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $6,300

The Rays and Orioles were rained out Tuesday, pushing Faria’s start to Wednesday. His 5.82 ERA and 1.59 WHIP this season don’t exactly look appealing, but a lot of that was due to him giving up eight earned runs in 1.2 innings against the Red Sox during his second start of the season. He’s been much better outside of that outing, allowing three earned runs across 15.1 innings in his other starts. He has also shown some strikeout upside, registering at least six of them in back-to-back starts. The Orioles have the lowest batting average (.215) in baseball, so Faria might be worth the risk in tournament play.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/18

Cody Bellinger vs. Trevor Richards, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $4,500

Bellinger isn’t exactly on fire right now, hitting 2-for-16 in his last five games. However, his two hits were a double and a home run and he also drew three walks during that stretch. He only has three home runs this season overall, but he’s batted a respectable .271. Bellinger had a .383 wOBA against right-handers last year, so facing Richards and his 1.68 WHIP might be just what he needs to start a hot streak.

Matt Olson vs. Doug Fister, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $4,300

Olson hit for a ton of power in 59 games last year, finishing with a .651 slugging percentage. His 40.3% hard-hit rate was excellent and has been even better this season at 50%. He only has three home runs to show for it, but that shouldn’t last for long if he keeps hitting the ball with this kind of authority. He had a 181 wRC+ against righties last year, leaving him with excellent upside against Fister, who doesn’t have an overpowering pitch arsenal.

Others to consider: Joey Gallo (first base) and Yasmani Grandal (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/18

Jed Lowrie vs. Doug Fister, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $4,600

At this point, the only reason not to play Lowrie in DFS is if you can’t fit his price tag into your entry. He already has 12 multi-hit games this season and is batting .363 with six home runs and eight doubles. The Athletics have had one of the most potent offenses in baseball in the early going and Lowrie’s success in a big reason why. He also has a .344 average in 33 career plate appearances against Fister, so he makes a lot of sense again Wednesday.

Joey Wendle vs. Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,200

Wendle is not a big home run hitter, but he did have a career .288 batting average in 641 games in the minors. He’s getting a chance to play every day for the rebuilding Rays and is off to a hot start, hitting .304 with a .385 OBP. His 40.5% hard-hit rate is probably unsustainable, so he may experience some regression as the league gets more familiar with how to pitch to him. Cobb has a horrible 15.43 ERA and 3.14 WHIP through his first two starts, so Wendle might be able to provide value.

Others to consider: Brock Holt and Chase Utley

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/18

Mike Moustakas vs. Jhoulys Chacin, Milwaukee Brewers
Stadium – Kauffman Stadium
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $4,300

The Royals have one of the worst lineups in baseball despite bringing back Moustakas, who hit a career-high 38 home runs last year. He certainly hasn’t been the problem, batting .307 with six home runs and five doubles so far. He had a .353 wOBA against right-handers last year and is at .470 against them so far in 2018, leaving him as a great option to consider for your entry.

Jeimer Candelario vs. Chad Kuhl, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – PNC Park
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = NA

Candelario has been one of the better hitters this season for the rebuilding Tigers, hitting .277 with three home runs, 10 RBI, and a .355 OBP. Kuhl’s 4.57 ERA this year is not terrible, but he’s allowed way too many baserunners with a 1.62 WHIP. That’s been a trend for him throughout his career with a WHIP of  1.44 in 249.2 innings. He also allowed a .376 wOBA to left-handed hitters last year, which is good news for the switch-hitting Candelario on Wednesday.

Others to consider: Travis Shaw and Rafael Devers

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/18

Manny Machado vs. Jake Faria, Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $4,800

Machado is looking to put his .259 batting average from last year firmly in the rearview mirror, hitting .360 out of the gates this season. His power numbers haven’t suffered either with eight home runs and seven doubles through 23 games. Most of his struggles came on the road last season, hitting .229 compared to .288 at home. Although I think using Faria in tournament play is a viable option based on the Orioles lineup as a whole, Machado could give him problems.

Corey Seager vs. Trevor Richards, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,400

Seager is not off to a good start this season with a .241 average and just one home run. He has a .275 BABIP and his 35.7% hard-hit rate is well below his career mark, which has been a big reason for his struggles. Richards isn’t a strikeout pitcher though and Seager did have a .353 wOBA against righties last year, so don’t be surprised if he busts out of his funk Wednesday.

Others to consider: Paul DeJong and Adeiny Hechavarria

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/18

Christian Yelich vs. Jason Hammel, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Kauffman Stadium
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $4,600

Yelich has been limited to only 12 games this season due to injury, but he’s performed well in limited action with a .319 average and two home runs. He continues to show an excellent eye at the plate with a .407 OBP after posting an OBP of at least .362 in every season of his career. He finished with a 123 wRC+ last year against righties compared to just 94 against lefties, so he could be in line for a valuable performance against Hammel.

Denard Span vs. Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,500

Span is off to a very unlikely start, driving in 17 runs in 18 games. Last year he had only 43 RBI in 129 games for the Giants. He has mostly batted leadoff this season, with the extra at-bats giving him a boost in DFS. He’s not going to keep up with this RBI pace, but he’s a viable option to consider Tuesday against the struggling Cobb.

Matt Joyce vs. Doug Fister, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $3,500

Joyce is one of those cheap options you want to target when he’s facing a right-handed pitcher. He has just a 62 wRC+ against lefties in his career, but a 123 wRC+ against righties. Fister allowed a .365 wOBA to lefties last year, so make sure to take advantage of the budget savings that Joyce can provide.

Others to consider: Tommy Pham and Shin-Soo Choo

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Third Base

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Third Base

Third base is loaded in fantasy baseball again this season with many of the premier players in the league manning the position. Several of the elite options are young as well, providing even more value if you play in a keeper or dynasty league. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some third basemen who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Third Base

Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

Arenado is one of the safest first-round picks in fantasy. He enters this season at only 26 years old but has hit at least 37 home runs to go along with at least 130 RBI and 97 runs scored in three straight seasons. His batting average and OBP have increased each of the last three years as well, topping out at .309 and .373, respectively, in 2017. He certainly benefits from playing in Coors field, batting .336 with 18 home and 76 RBI in 78 home games last year. While his batting average was lower on the road, he did still manage to slug 18 home runs last year away from Coors field. Arenado is not only the best option at third base, but he is arguably a top-five player in fantasy.

Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

Bryant was on his way to pushing Arenado for the best third baseman in fantasy after a monster 2016 season that saw him hit .292 with 39 home runs, 102 RBI and 121 runs scored. He took a step backward in 2017 though, hitting .295 with 29 home runs, 73 RBI, and 111 runs scored. The main reason for his decline in RBI was because he moved up in the batting order. In 2016, he batted third in 62 games and recorded 50 RBI. He hit second in 83 games, providing only 45 RBI. Bryant batted second in 110 games in 2017, finishing with just 59 RBI in those contests. With Bryant expected to bat second again this season, it will be difficult for him to reach his 2016 RBI total again. He’s still an elite talent though who hits for average and power, making him worthy of a late first-round, early second-round pick depending on the size of your league.

Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

Machado was expected to be one of the best players in fantasy in 2017 after batting at least .286 with at least 35 home runs, 86 RBI and 102 runs in back-to-back seasons. While his powers numbers were there last year with 33 home runs and 95 RBI, he batted just .259. Much of that can be attributed to a horrid first half where he hit just .230 in large part because of a .230 BABIP. He has a career .301 BABIP, so it’s no surprise that he improved to a .290 BABIP in the second half of the season. The result was a .290 average over that same stretch. He should see a significant improvement in batting average this season and could end up pushing Bryant for being the second-best fantasy option at third base. He is also moving to shortstop, which will give him a boost in value when he gains that added eligibility.

 

Overvalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Third Base

Mike Moustakas, Free Agent

Moustakas finally had his breakout season in 2017, hitting 38 home runs to go along with a .272 average. He finished with just 85 RBI and 75 runs scored though as 27 of his home runs were of the solo variety. He did appear to take a more aggressive approach at the plate, seeing only 3.78 pitchers per plate appearance, the second fewest of his career. Also, he struck out swinging on 96.8% of his strikeouts, by far the highest percentage of his career. He has yet to sign with a team, but it’s going to be hard for him to match his homer total from last season wherever he signs considering he had never hit more than 22 home runs in a season previously. His current ADP in the NFBC is too high at 118.30. Fellow third basemen Kyle Seager (137.64) and Adrian Beltre (158.42) could provide very similar numbers and are still available later in most drafts.

Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks

Lamb set career-highs last year with 30 home runs, 105 RBI, and 89 runs scored. His average was still poor though at just .248, the second straight season he hit below .250. Lamb tends to get off to a hot start before cooling off in the second half. He has batted .284 for his career in the first half of the season but has followed it up with a career average of just .220 in the second half. Home runs are becoming easier to find in fantasy, making Lamb less valuable than he may have been previously. There are no signs that he is going to improve his batting average this year, which should limit his overall value. His current ADP of 118.35 is right behind Moustakas, which is hard to justify based on his numbers.

Undervalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Third Base

Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers

Injuries plagued Beltre in 2017, limiting him to 94 games. He was excellent when he was on the diamond, batting .312 with 17 home runs, 71 RBI, and a .383 OBP. Although he will turn 39 this year, injuries had not been a recent problem with Beltre playing at least 143 games in each of the previous five seasons. A career .287 hitter, Beltre had also hit at least 28 home runs in five of his last seven seasons entering 2017. With his consistent power and a high batting average now being at a premium in fantasy, Beltre should be going higher than his current ADP of 158.42. Don’t sleep on him in your league.

Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics

Chapman got his first taste of the majors in 2017, batting .234 with 14 home runs and 40 RBI in 84 games. He only batted .244 for his career in the minors, so don’t expect to see any significant improvement from him in that area this year. However, he provides plenty of power, slugging .518 in the minors. He’ll strike out a lot, but he did have a walk percentage of at least 10.6% in each of his stops in the minors since 2015. His current ADP is only 284.97, which is 25th amongst players eligible at third base. He could provide 25 home runs and 80 RBI in a full season, leaving him as someone with value even with his poor average that late in a draft.

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

The MLB offseason is often referred to as the “Hot Stove” due to all of the trades and signings that occur in the winter months. However, the market has developed extremely slowly this year, leaving several impact players still left unsigned. As we continue our fantasy baseball season preview series, we’ll take a look at some big names who are available and the potential impact they could have this season.

J.D. Martinez, OF

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

Martinez had his breakout campaign with the Tigers when he batted .282 with 38 home runs, 102 RBI and 93 runs scored in 2015. The Tigers decided to start the rebuilding process last year, shipping Martinez to the Diamondbacks. He went on to have a scorching hot finish, hitting .302 with 29 home runs, 65 RBI and 47 runs scored in only 62 games with his new team.

Martinez is still on the market and should command a hefty contract. He’s not a great defender, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he ends up in the American League where he can also spend some time at DH, especially towards the end of his contract. He’s only played more than 123 games once in his career, so it might be tough for him to hold up as an everyday outfielder as he gets older.

No matter where Martinez signs, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be able to perform at the rate he did with the Diamondbacks. He hit a home run ever 8.0 at-bats with Arizona, which is far more frequent than his career average of once every 18.6 at-bats. Even during his stellar 2015 season, he only hit a home run once every 15.7 at-bats. He does hit for a high average, so he doesn’t need to hit over 40 home runs to still be an extremely valuable fantasy asset. Expect him to finish this season around the top-10 fantasy outfielders.

Yu Darvish, SP

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

Darvish is the big fish still left in the sea when it comes to starting pitchers with rumored interested suitors being the Yankees, Twins, Brewers, Cubs, Rangers, and Dodgers. Although he struggled mightily in the World Series, his strong finish with the Dodgers was a big part of why they made it that far.

The good news from a fantasy perspective is that Darvish pitched 186.2 innings during the regular season. He missed the entire 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery and pitched only 100.1 innings in 2016. He’s an elite strikeout pitcher when healthy, posting an 11.0 K/9 for his career. No matter where he signs, Darvish should still provide strong value in most categories. However, if you play in a league that counts wins, you’d like to see him sign with a team that has a potent offense and a strong bullpen. If he ultimately ends up with the Cubs, Dodgers or Yankees, he could surpass his previous career-high of 16 wins that he set back in 2012.

Eric Hosmer, 1B

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

The first base market has been slow to develop with many of baseball’s better teams already set at the position. Hosmer has had limited suitors as a result, with the two primary teams reportedly interested being the Royals and the Padres.

Hosmer is not your traditional masher at first base. He’s never hit more than 25 home runs in a season and has reached at least 100 RBI only one time during his career. The good news is he set career-highs last year in batting average (.318) and OBP (.385). He only had a strikeout percentage of 15.5% as well, marking the fourth time in his career he has finished under 16%.

The bad news with Hosmer is that he’s been wildly inconsistent. For example, his batting averages the last four seasons have been .270, .297, .266 and .318, respectively. Those are some big swings when you consider you aren’t drafting him for his ability to hit home runs. With so many other elite options at first base, expect Hosmer to rank someone between 10 and 15 at the position when the season is all said and done.

Mike Moustakas, 3B

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

Moustakas if a former first-round pick who has spent his entire seven-year career with the Royals. He had largely not lived up to the hype heading into the 2017 season, making only one All-Star team during his career. The one time he received that honor was in 2015 when he finished the season batting .284 with 22 home runs, 82 RBI, and 73 runs scored. Those are solid numbers, but nothing to write home about.

He finally had his breakout season in 2017, hitting a franchise-record 38 home runs. The problem was the Royals were one of the worst offensive teams in the league, resulting in 27 of his home runs being solo shots. He finished with just 85 RBI and 75 runs scored.

Considering he hit so many home runs, it’s impressive that he only had a 15.7% strikeout percentage. It’s not out of the ordinary for Moustakas though as he has a 15.5% strikeout percentage for his career. He did appear to take a more aggressive approach at the plate though, seeing only 3.78 pitchers per plate appearance, the second fewest of his career. Also, he struck out swinging on 96.8% of his strikeouts last year, by far the highest percentage of his career.

There hasn’t been a lot of buzz surrounding Moustakas this winter, but he could actually see an increase in value if he leaves the Royals. Of his 38 home runs last year, 24 of them came on the road. If he moves to a team with a more hitter-friendly ballpark, he could approach 30 home runs again this season. Landing on a potent offensive team like the Yankees would be ideal. Even if he finds the perfect fit, his ceiling isn’t much higher than that of a top 12-to-15 third baseman in fantasy baseball.

Lorenzo Cain, OF

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

Cain certainly wasn’t the cause of the Royals anemic offense last year, batting .300 with a career-high .363 OBP. It marked the third time in the last four seasons that he finished with a batting average of at least .300. Not only did he have a career-low 15.5% strikeout percentage, but he also recorded a career-high 8.4% walk percentage.

Cain can provide value with his speed, stealing at least 26 bases in three of the last four years. While he did have 26 steals last year, it’s important to note that those came in a career-high 155 games played. In 2014 and 2015 when he finished with 28 steals each season, he played in 133 and 140 games, respectively. Cain also doesn’t provide much in the way of home runs, hitting no more than 16 home runs in any season of his career.

Like many of the big name free agents, the market for Cain has been slow to develop. Regardless of where he signs, he really doesn’t have a high upside in any category outside of batting average. As a result, his ceiling is likely finishing just inside the top-20 outfielders in fantasy, with his floor being in the 25-30 range as long as he stays healthy.