With plenty of day games on the schedule Thursday, only five contests will make up the main evening slate in DFS. The starting pitching options aren’t great, so choosing the right hitters could be the key to coming in the money.
Read MoreMLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/8/2019
Monday brings 10 games in the majors, eight of which will make up the main evening slate in DFS. Whether you want to roll with an ace pitcher or load up on bats, there are plenty of options for either strategy.
Read MoreMLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/2019
Wednesday brings a lot of day games across the majors, leaving just five games to choose from for the main evening slate in DFS. While quality pitching options are hard to come by, the night still has plenty of great hitters to choose from.
Read MoreMLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/1/2019
Welcome to our first daily fantasy baseball article of the season. We have 13 games across the majors on Monday, nine of which will make up the main evening slate. Let’s dive into the matchups to see which players stand out as having favorable opportunities to be productive.
Read MoreMLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 23
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
August special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout
As we shift to NFL DFS coverage next week on Lineup Lab, this will be the last starting pitching schedule analysis article for the season. Hopefully, these articles have helped you be successful in your league. Let’s end things on a high note. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.
Starters With Favorable Matchups
Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians: vs. MIN, vs. TB
Carrasco’s last start didn’t go well as he allowed six runs (five earned) across 3.2 innings. It came against the Red Sox in Fenway Park, so don’t be overly concerned. He was dealing heading into that outing, allowing three runs or fewer in eight straight starts. Not only does he have a lofty 10.2 K/9, but he’s shown excellent control by issuing 1.8 BB/9. The end result has been a 1.13 WHIP and a 3.55 ERA that is supported by an even stronger 3.10 FIP. The Twins have only averaged 3.9 runs across their last 10 games and the Rays haven’t had as much success on the road (.712 OPS) as they have a home (.737 OPS), potentially setting up Carrasco for a dominant week.
Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs: vs. NYM, at PHI
Lester appears to have turned things around after a brief rough stretch, allowing one run and recording 11 strikeouts across 11.2 innings in his last two starts. His 3.64 ERA overall is a big improvement from last year, but his 4.74 FIP certainly instills less confidence. One area of concern has been his lack of strikeouts. His 8.3% swinging-strike rate is his lowest mark since 2008, resulting in just a 7.2 K/9. With that being said, he still could be very productive this week. Both the Mets and Phillies have an OPS against left-handed pitchers that are in the bottom-third of baseball.
Lance Lynn, New York Yankees: vs. CWS, vs. DET
Lynn started off strong with the Yankees, allowing one run across 16.2 innings in his first three appearances. He pitched so well in his first outing out of the bullpen that he quickly replaced Sonny Gray in their rotation. His last two starts have been rough, allowing 10 runs over 9.1 innings. The good news is he struck out 11 batters during those two games, helping boost his K/9 for the season to 9.3. His first start for the Yankee came against these same White Sox and he responded with nine strikeouts in 7.1 scoreless innings. With the White Sox and the Tigers both in the bottom-third of the league in runs scored, Lynn could be in line for a couple of rebound performances. He is still available in 55% of Yahoo! leagues.
Brian Johnson, Boston Red Sox: vs. MIA, at CWS
With the Red Sox dealing with injuries, Johnson has been elevated into their starting rotation. He’s made 10 starts so far, posting a 3.63 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an 8.0 K/9. He’s had some rough opponents of late, facing the Yankees, Indians and Blue Jays in three of his last four starts. Things look much more favorable for him in Week 23 since both the Marlins and the White Sox are in the bottom-third of baseball in terms of OPS against left-handed pitching. If you’re looking for a viable streaming option, Johnson is still available in 93% of Yahoo! leagues.
Starters to Avoid
Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins: at CLE, at TEX
After posting an ERA of exactly 5.07 in both of the last two seasons, Gibson has been much improved this year with a 3.63 ERA. One of the keys to his success has been his 1.29 WHIP, which is significantly below his 1.41 career mark. He hasn’t been as good in August, though, with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. He gets two tough opponents in Week 23 based on the Indians and Rangers both being in the top-five in home OPS. You may have leaned on Gibson many times this season, but this might be the time to keep him on your bench.
Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox: at NYY, vs. BOS
Rodon has been excellent of late, allowing two runs or fewer in seven on his last eight starts. He has a sparkling 2.71 ERA for the season, but he’s been somewhat lucky based on his 4.27 FIP and incredibly low .206 BABIP allowed. His 7.2 K/9 is also the lowest mark of his career, although his 9.5% swinging-strike rate isn’t too far off from his career average. He’ll have to face the two juggernauts in the AL East in Week 23 and even though the Yankees are missing some key bats, I’d still shy away from putting Rodon into your lineup.
Ivan Nova, Pittsburgh Pirates: at STL, at ATL
If there is one thing you can count on with Nova, it’s that he’s not going to walk many hitters. He’s only issued 1.8 BB/9, which would be his third-straight season of under two walks per nine innings. While that certainly helps his cause, he doesn’t have an overpowering arsenal with just an 8.7% swinging-strike rate and a 6.2 K/9. Facing the Cardinals is no easy task as they have averaged 5.9 runs across their last 10 games. The Braves are also in the top-10 in runs scored overall, so don’t even think about streaming Nova.
MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 22
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
August special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout
If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.
Starters With Favorable Matchups
Zack Wheeler, New York Mets: vs. SF, vs. WAS
Not much has gone right for the Mets this season, but Wheeler has made significant improvements. After finishing with a 5.21 ERA and a 5.03 FIP in 2017, he has a 3.75 ERA and a 3.43 FIP this year. Not only has he reduced his WHIP from 1.59 to 1.23, but he’s only allowed 0.8 HR/9 compared to 1.6 HR/9 last year. He’s on a hot streak right now, as well, allowing five runs and recording 30 strikeouts over 33 innings in his last five starts. His first start of Week 22 is a fantastic matchup considering the Giants have the third-lowest OPS on the road (.664) in baseball. The Nationals are certainly a tougher opponent, but they’ve only averaged 4.4 runs over their last 10 games.
Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox: vs. MIN, at DET
Rodon enters Week 22 having allowed three runs or fewer in seven straight starts. He has a sparkling 2.69 ERA overall, but his 4.17 FIP and .210 opponents’ BABIP would suggest luck has been on his side. His 7.2 K/9 is by far the lowest mark of his career, but his 9.7% swinging-strike rate is almost right on par with his career average. Some regression might be in his future, but it’s not likely to start this week. The Twins have the sixth-lowest OPS against lefties (.683) and the Tigers have scored the fourth-fewest runs overall (484) in the league.
Kevin Gausman, Atlanta Braves: at PIT, at MIA
Gausman has shown improvement since joining the Braves, allowing five runs across 19 innings in three starts. He only had 12 total strikeouts, but it’s very encouraging that he also allowed just one home run. Homers have been a problem for him this season since he’s allowed 1.4 HR/9 overall. The move from the American League to the National League can provide a big boost for pitchers, which could be the case even more so for Gausman since he was pitching in the AL East. Both the Pirates and the Marlins are in the bottom-third in baseball in home runs and the Marlins struggle to score runs, in general, leaving Gausman with the potential for a valuable week.
Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies: vs. SD, vs. STL
Anderson isn’t exactly at the top of his game right now as he’s allowed 21 runs over 20.1 innings in his last four starts. It’s no coincidence that three of those outings came on the road. Anderson actually has thrived pitching at Coors Field, posting a 3.47 ERA there compared to a 5.37 ERA on the road. He had similar splits last year with a 5.44 ERA on the road and a 4.14 ERA at home. The Padres struggle to score runs and have the second-most strikeouts (1,190) in baseball, leaving Anderson with a great matchup in his first start of the week. The Cardinals will be a tougher foe, but Anderson is still available in 69% of Yahoo! leagues and is someone to consider streaming if you need a starter.
Starters to Avoid
Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians: at BOS, at KC
Bieber has an unsightly 1.41 WHIP this season, but he’s been extremely unlucky with opponents posting a .372 BABIP against him. He has allowed a 42.2% hard-hit rate, though, an area he’ll need to improve on to start lowering that BABIP. He has shown good control by issuing 2.0 BB/9 to go along with a 9.4 K/9. His second start of the week against the Royals stands out as a great matchup, but he’ll have to face the Red Sox in Fenway Park first. The Red Sox have the second-highest OPS at home (.829) and the highest OPS against righties (.816), which could prove disastrous for Bieber. It might be wise to keep him anchored to your bench as a result.
Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox: vs. CLE, at TB
Eovaldi started off his Red Sox tenure with a bang, throwing 15 shutouts innings in his first two starts. His last two haven’t gone nearly as well as he allowed 11 runs (five earned) across 7.2 innings. His 1.04 WHIP overall this season would be the best mark of his career, but it’s been aided by an abnormally low .265 opponents’ BABIP. The Indians present a dangerous matchup because even though they haven’t been as good offensively on the road, they still have the third-most runs scored (628) in baseball. The Rays aren’t a bad matchup, but with Eovaldi having to face the Indians and his general lack of strikeout upside, he may not be worth the risk.
Robbie Erlin, San Diego Padres: at COL, at LAD
Erlin has pitched mostly out of the bullpen this season, but he’s done a nice job with a 3.33 ERA that is supported by a 3.12 FIP. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts, but he’s not someone to consider streaming this week. The Rockies have a .812 OPS at home and a .803 OPS against left-handed pitchers, both of which are in the top-three in baseball. Facing the Dodgers won’t be much easier as they have scored the seventh-most runs (594) in the league.
MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 21
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
August special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout
If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.
Starters With Favorable Matchups
Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians: at CIN, vs. BAL
The Indians starting rotation is so deep that Clevinger often gets lost behind Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Carrasco. His contributions should not go unnoticed, though, considering his 3.38 ERA that is backed by a 3.35 FIP. After issuing at least 4.4 BB/9 in both of his first two seasons, Clevinger has a much improved 2.8 BB/9 this year. He’s also allowed just 13 home runs across 146.2 innings. He won’t have to deal with the DH pitching at Cincinnati in his first start of Week 21. The Reds haven’t been hitting well of late either, averaging 3.5 runs over their last 10 games. The Orioles and their stripped-down lineup also present a favorable matchup in his second start, potentially setting up Clevinger for a valuable week.
J.A. Happ, New York Yankees: vs. TB, vs. TOR
Happ has pitched well since joining the Yankees, allowing four runs and recording 11 strikeouts across 12 innings. Desperate for help in their rotation, Happ could be a key addition for the Yankees down the stretch. His 4.07 ERA overall doesn’t exactly stand out, but he has a 1.14 WHIP and a 10.1 K/9. He also had a 5.22 ERA pitching in the Rogers Centre this year, so a move out of Toronto could provide a boost to his value. The Rays are in the bottom-third of baseball in runs scored and the Blue Jays lineup isn’t exactly all that imposing either, making Happ a great option for Week 21.
Anibal Sanchez, Atlanta Braves: vs. MIA, vs. COL
Sanchez left his last outing early after getting hit on the calf, but he’s expected to be fine for his next start Tuesday. Sanchez finished with an ERA of 4.99 or higher in each of the last three seasons with the Tigers, but he’s been much improved with the Braves. While it will be hard for him to maintain his current 2.83 ERA, his FIP is still strong at 3.73. One of the main reasons for his success has been cutting back on allowing home runs. He allowed 1.7 HR/9 or more in each of his previous three seasons but has only allowed 1.0 HR/9 this year. His first start against the Marlins is a great matchup since they have scored the second-fewest runs (444) in baseball. The Rockies are more dangerous, but they only have a .689 OPS on the road.
Blaine Hardy, Detroit Tigers: vs. CWS, at MIN
After pitching out of the bullpen for his entire career, Hardy has been given a chance to start this year. He’s made 12 starts over 22 appearances, posting a 3.63 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP overall. He’s shown good control by issuing just 2.3 BB/9, but he doesn’t have much strikeout upside with a 6.5 K/9. That being said, you might be able to squeeze some value out of him. The White Sox and Twins both struggle to score runs and are in the bottom third of baseball in OPS against left-handed pitching. In two previous starts against the White Sox, Hardy allowed two runs over 12.1 innings. He’s had similar success against the Twins, giving up four runs across 11 innings in two outings. Hardy is still available in 97% of Yahoo! leagues.
Starters to Avoid
Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners: at OAK, vs. LAD
Gonzales has pitched well in first extended look in the majors, posting a 3.79 ERA, 3.59 FIP, and a 1.20 WHIP. He only has a 7.9 K/9, but he’s shown excellent control with a 1.6 BB/9. He did allow seven runs in his last start against the Rangers, marking the third time in his last nine outings that he allowed at least five runs. The A’s and Dodgers both have deep lineups that can score a lot of runs, which could prove troublesome for Gonzales. With his lack of strikeout upside, this might be the week to put him on your bench.
Nick Pivetta, Philadelphia Phillies: vs. BOS, vs. NYM
Pivetta has been a tremendous source for strikeouts with an 11.1 K/9. His 4.51 ERA doesn’t entirely paint an accurate picture of his performance, either, based on his 3.47 FIP. His WHIP is also down from 1.51 last year to 1.28 this season. However, he can tend to give up runs in bunches, which could be disastrous against the Red Sox. His second start against the Mets is extremely favorable, but the damage might have already been done to his week by the time he gets there.
Ryan Borucki, Toronto Blue Jays: at KC, at NYY
Borucki has a 2.81 ERA across eight starts for the Blue Jays, but his 1.38 WHIP doesn’t inspire much confidence. He’s allowed just one home run over 48 innings, so his ERA could increase quickly if he can’t continue to keep hitters inside the park. Don’t count on him for many strikeouts, either, based on his 6.0 K/9. His first matchup this week against the Royals is certainly in his favor. While he did hold the Yankees to one run across even innings previously, it’s important to note that game was in Toronto. The Yankees have a .739 OPS on the road but a much better .834 OPS at home. The start against the Royals makes him an enticing streaming option, but I don’t think he’s worth the risk against the Yankees.
MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 20
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
August special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout
If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.
Starters With Favorable Matchups
Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians: vs. MIN, at CWS
Bauer has been extremely consistent for the Indians. He hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in any of his starts this season and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 17 of his 23 outings. The end result has been a sparkling 2.34 ERA that is backed by a 2.42 FIP. Luck hasn’t been a factor as opponents have a .305 BABIP against him. One of the big reasons for his improvement is his career-high 13% swinging-strike rate, which has resulted in an 11.4 K/9. The Twins have had their struggles scoring runs and traded away two of their best hitters in Eduardo Escobar and Brian Dozier. The White Sox are in the bottom third of baseball in runs scored, as well, setting up Bauer for a very productive Week 20.
Cole Hamels, Chicago Cubs: at KC, vs. WAS
Hamels has to be happy after being traded to the Cubs. He was awful pitching at home for the Rangers, posting a 6.41 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP across 10 starts. He has a 2.69 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over his other 11 starts outside of Globe Life Park in Arlington. The move to the National League helps, too, since he will get to avoid the DH. Although he won’t get that luxury in his first start of Week 20 playing in Kansas City, the Royals have scored the fewest runs (413) in the league. The Nationals are certainly a much tougher opponent, but they only have a .708 OPS on the road compared to a .775 OPS at home.
C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees: at CWS, vs. TEX
Sabathia has found a way to pitch with diminished velocity and still be a valuable part of the Yankees rotation. He sometimes struggles to provide length, but he’s still managed to record a 3.59 ERA. His 4.70 FIP suggests he’s been a bit lucky, but his .282 opponents’ BABIP is close to his .293 career mark. With the White Sox struggles offensively already detailed, Sabathia could start Week 20 off on a high note. The Rangers are an excellent hitting team at home, but they have the sixth-lowest OPS (.682) on the road. To top it off, Sabathia has a 2.69 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 11 starts at Yankee Stadium.
Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers: at LAA, vs. MIN
Boyd finished July strong, allowing three runs and recording 20 strikeouts across 19 innings in his last three starts. Although two of those starts came against the Royals and the Reds, one was against the vaunted Red Sox lineup. Boyd has been aided by a .264 opponents’ BABIP this season, but his 4.22 ERA is actually higher than his 3.84 indicates it should be. He does have a respectable 8.2 K/9 and can provide value in the right matchup. Both the Angels and the Twins are in the bottom five of baseball in terms of OPS against left-handed pitching, making Boyd a viable streaming option who is still available in 80% of Yahoo! leagues.
Starters to Avoid
Rich Hill, Los Angeles Dodgers: at OAK, at COL
Hill has been limited by injuries again this season, but he’s pitched well when healthy. He’s been especially hot of late, recording a 2.90 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a 10.5 K/9 over his last seven outings. His first start of the week isn’t bad because even though he has to face the DH, the Athletics are actually a far worse hitting team at home than on the road. However, his second start at Coors Field is scary. The Rockies have the second-highest OPS against left-handed pitching (.798) and the third-highest OPS at home (.827). Hill might not be worth the risk.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners: at TEX, at HOU
Hernandez might be at a crossroads in his career. He’s struggled with diminished velocity, resulting in a 5.49 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP this year. His strikeouts are down, as well, with a 7.4 K/9. He’ll need to make an adjustment like Sabathia did to once again become a viable fantasy commodity. He has a respectable 4.02 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP at home, but he’s been destroyed on the road with a 7.58 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. The Rangers love hitting at home and the Astros are still dangerous despite some key injuries, so make sure to keep Hernandez out of your lineup.
Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays: vs. BOS, vs. TB
Stroman was crushed in his last start against the Athletics, giving up seven runs over five innings. He’s been prone to blowups this season, allowing at least five runs in six of his 15 starts. His 1.49 WHIP is by far the highest mark of his career, which is a problem considering he doesn’t have an overpowering arsenal. Facing the Red Sox in his first start for Week 20 could be a disaster. The Rays aren’t as daunting of a task, but they have averaged 5.3 runs across their last 20 games. With his limited strikeout potential, Stroman seems like an unnecessary to take if you need a streaming option.
MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 19
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
July special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout
If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.
Starters With Favorable Matchups
Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. TEX, vs. SF
Ray had a breakout campaign in 2017, but injuries have limited him to only 12 starts this year. His overall numbers aren’t great, either, with a 4.90 ERA and a 4.65 FIP. One of the main reasons for his decline is likely his a 1.42 WHIP after he recorded just a 1.15 WHIP last year. The good news is he’s still getting plenty of strikeouts with a 12.0 K/9. The Rangers are a deadly lineup at home, but their .680 OPS on the road is in the bottom third of baseball. They also won’t have the benefit of using the DH in Arizona. The Giants are in the bottom third of baseball in runs scored, leaving Ray with an excellent opportunity for two valuable outings.
Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies: at STL, at MIL
Anderson has quietly put up some nice numbers after recording a bloated 4.81 ERA last year. He enters Week 19 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, although he has been a little lucky based on his 4.21 FIP. He’s allowed 1.3 HR/9, which isn’t all that bad considering he has to pitch his home games in Coors Field. He’ll avoid that issue with both of his starts coming on the road, where he has a 3.48 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP across 10 outings. Considering he has allowed just five runs (four earned) over 35.1 innings in his last five starts as well, he could be in store for a big week.
Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals: at CWS, at MIN
Duffy was crushed in his last start against the Tigers, allowing seven runs in 5.2 innings. It marked the eighth time he has allowed at least five runs in a game this season. He was excellent heading into that start, allowing one run over 20 innings in his previous three games. He’s actually allowed one earned run or fewer 11 times, taking owners on a bit of a rollercoaster ride. Run support might be hard to come by after the Royals traded away Mike Moustakas, but both the White Sox and the Twins are in the bottom-six of baseball in OPS against left-handed pitching. There’s some risk involved with starting Duffy, but he does carry upside for Week 19.
Anibal Sanchez, Atlanta Braves: vs. MIA, at NYM
Sanchez had been terrible for the Tigers the last two years, recording a combined 6.09 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. However, the move to the National League seems to have rejuvenated his career. In 14 appearances (13 starts), he has a 3.00 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. It’s hard to imagine those numbers holding up, though, since opponents have just a .249 BABIP against him. While his numbers might regress, it doesn’t mean that regression is going to start during Week 19. He’ll get two great matchups against the Marlins and Mets with both teams in the bottom five of the league in runs scored.
Starters to Avoid
David Price, Boston Red Sox: vs. PHI, vs. NYY
Price’s first matchup against the Phillies leans in his favor, but his second start against the Yankees could be a disaster. In his first two outings against them this season, he allowed 15 runs in 4.1 innings. This is nothing new for Price considering he has a 4.90 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP against the Yankees in his career. Since joining the Red Sox, he has allowed 44 runs over 47 innings against them. Although the Yankees are missing two key bats in Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, they still have plenty of hitters who can do damage. This might be the week to put Price on your bench.
Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians: at MIN, vs. LAA
After a dominant stretch in June, Bieber has a 7.84 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in the month of July. He allowed four home runs during that stretch and only had a 7.4 K/9, which is not exactly a recipe for success. The lack of strikeouts isn’t all that surprising, either, since he posted an 8.4 K/9 during his career in the minors. The Twins only have a .671 OPS against left-handed pitchers, but they have a .735 OPS against righties. The Angels are also much better versus right-handed pitchers, posting the third-highest OPS (.775) against them in the league.
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers: at LAD, vs. COL
Peralta has electric stuff, resulting in an 11.8 K/9 during his first taste of major league action. He’s been wild, though, with a 4.6 BB/9. After not allowing a single run in three of his first four starts, he’s allowed at least three runs in three of his last four outings. The Nationals hung a crooked number on him Wednesday, scoring seven runs across six innings. Although his strikeout upside makes him intriguing, this might not be the week to take a chance on him. The Dodgers have the second-highest OPS against right-handed pitchers (.777) in baseball. He’ll avoid Coors Field in his second start, but the Rockies still have several potent bats who can cause problems.
MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 18
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
July special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout
If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.
Starters With Favorable Matchups
Luis Severino, New York Yankees: at TB, vs. KC
Severino hasn’t pitched well in his last two outings, allowing four home runs and seven runs across 10 innings. To show how dominant he was in the first half, he still has a 2.31 ERA and a 2.74 FIP overall. He doesn’t normally allow a lot of home runs with a 0.7 HR/9, so expect him to right the ship in that department sooner rather than later. Not only does he have a 10.1 K/9, but he does a great job limiting baserunners with a 1.01 WHIP. He has dominated the Rays in two previous starts this season, allowing two runs and recording 16 strikeouts over 15.1 innings. The Royals have scored the fewest runs (352) in baseball, setting up Severino for a big week.
Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox: at BAL, vs. MIN
The Blue Jays hammered Porcello for eight runs across two innings in his last start, increasing his ERA from 3.58 to 4.13. He’s pitched better this year overall, though, in large part because he lowered his WHIP from 1.40 last year to 1.24. His 38.3% percent hard-hit rate in 2017 was significantly higher than his career mark, but that has normalized this season at 31.4%. He doesn’t have the same strikeout upside that Severino does, but he has a respectable 8.6 K/9. The Orioles have already traded away their best hitter in Manny Machado, leaving their lineup even more in shambles. The Twins lineup isn’t great either and they, too, could be looking to trade away some of their better players for prospects. Even if that doesn’t happen before Porcello faces them, look for him to quickly get back on track with two valuable performances for Week 18.
Zack Wheeler, New York Mets: vs. SD, at PIT
Wheeler’s 4.44 ERA isn’t inspiring, but his 3.74 FIP indicates he’s actually having a nice rebound campaign. His 1.34 WHIP is much improved from 1.59 last year and he hasn’t allowed a lot of home runs with a 0.9 HR/9. His 8.9 K/9 is bolstered by his 11% swinging-strike rate and hitters swinging at 31.5% of his pitches outside of the strike zone, both of which would be career-highs. The Padres have scored the fourth-fewest runs (380) in baseball, setting up Wheeler to start off Week 18 on a high note. The Pirates will be a tougher matchup, but Wheeler recorded seven strikeouts over seven scoreless innings against them earlier this year. Still available in 72% of Yahoo! leagues, Wheeler has upside, even though there is some risk he might be traded.
Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox: at LAA, vs. TOR
Rodon has come back from injury to record a 3.56 ERA in seven starts, but don’t get overly confident in him just yet. His FIP is 5.04 and opponents have been unlucky with a .225 BABIP. He’s also allowed seven home runs over 43 innings. He has a career 9.0 K/9, though, and has shown enough upside that you can still gain some value if you start him in the right situation. That could be the case for Week 18 as his first start comes against an Angels squad with the fourth-lowest OPS (.663) against lefties. The Blue Jays haven’t struggled as much with a .708 OPS against left-handers, but they are much better against righties with a .742 OPS. Rodon is still available in 74% of Yahoo! leagues and presents another viable streaming opportunity.
Starters to Avoid
Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles: vs. BOS, vs. TB
Gausman has trouble keeping hitters in the park with a 1.5 HR/9, which would be the fourth straight season he has finished with an HR/9 of at least 1.4. Add in his 1.37 WHIP and uninspiring 7.8 K/9 and Gausman enters Week 18 with a 4.33 ERA and a 4.48 FIP. The Red Sox have scored by far the most runs (540) in baseball and destroyed Gausman for six runs in 4.2 innings earlier this season. The Rays are a better matchup, but they have scored nine runs over 10 innings in two games against Gausman. Keep him anchored to your bench.
Jose Urena, Miami Marlins: vs. ATL, vs. WAS
Urena finished with a 3.82 ERA in 2017, but he was lucky considering his 5.20 FIP. The opposite can be said for him this year as he has a 4.39 ERA, but a 3.71 FIP. He’s allowed a .304 BABIP, which is over 20 points higher than his career mark. The problem is he’s not fooling many batters with an 8.6% swinging-strike rate and a 7.4 K/9. The Braves are in the top third of baseball in runs scored and have scored seven runs over 12 innings against Urena this season. The Nationals lineup has been disappointing, but they still have plenty of potent hitters that can cause problems. With Urena’s limited strikeout upside, he’s not worth taking a chance on for Week 18.
Mike Minor, Texas Rangers: vs. OAK, at HOU
Minor was shelled by the lowly Orioles in his last start, allowing six runs (five earned) in 2.2 innings. He’s been able to stay healthy in his first season as a starting pitcher since 2014, but he hasn’t pitched well with a 4.89 ERA. He doesn’t walk many batters, but he doesn’t strikeout out many, either, with a 7.2 K/9. The Athletics are red-hot right now and have the second-highest road OPS (.788) in baseball. Minor has faced the Astros three times already, allowing 12 runs (11 earned) across 17 innings. You may have streamed him earlier this season, but stay away this week.