*Chris Durell*

DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 7

Welcome back for another week of daily fantasy football. The decisions are really starting to get interesting no matter the format you are playing as injuries are starting to pile up across the league. The good thing about the Pick’Em contests on DraftKings is that the decisions are not nearly as difficult. Let’s jump in and break down the players in each tier along with my favorite picks in each.

Tier 1

Rookie Leonard Fournette is neck and neck with Todd Gurley when looking at fantasy points per game this season. Fournette has the edge in rushing as he trails only Kareem Hunt in rushing yards with 596(4.6 per carry) while Gurley has 521 yards(4.2 per carry). Gurley has the slight lead in PPR points per game due to his 5.0 targets per game and 245 receiving yards while Fournette is averaging 3.3 targets per game with 145 yards receiving. Of the two backs, I lean Gurley as Fournette is questionable with an ankle injury and even if he plays could be limited as Chris Ivory looked good as his backup last week. If you are looking to go a bit off the board, LeSean McCoy is likely going to be lower owned than Gurley and has out targeted both the other backs averaging 6.4 per week. It makes sense as Tyrod Taylor doesn’t really have many targets these days. He gets a matchup vs. the Bucs who could be without Jameis Winston this week which should help with the game flow giving McCoy some extra opportunities if the Bills can get ahead early.

Tier 2

The second tier gives us three target monsters all on the road. Fitzgerald has been the most productive this season averaging 10.3 targets per game with 465 yards and three touchdowns but has the toughest matchup of the bunch vs. the Rams who rank 7th overall in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts and will see a lot of Nickell Robey-Coleman who has graded out as a Top 30 cornerback via Pro Football Focus. Mike Evans has yet to break 100 yards in a game and comes with a ton of risk if Jameis Winston should sit out. He also gets a tough matchup vs. the Bills who do sit in the middle of the pack when looking at the DraftKings points per game but rank 3rd overall when looking at DVOA defense vs. the pass. Michael Thomas trails both in targets per game(8.6) but gets the best matchup facing the Packers who rank 20th in DraftKings points per game and 19th when looking at DVOA defense vs. the pass. He also has the highest upside quarterback throwing to him in Drew Brees.

Tier 3

Right off the top, I will be fading both Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston for injury reasons. I already discussed Winston’s questionable tag as he is dealing with a shoulder issue and did not attempt any passes in Wednesday’s portion of practice. Mariota is working on a short week after returning for the Monday night game and was limited in the sense that he remained in the pocket for the majority of the game and only attempted two rushes for zero yards. For me this week, it is either Carson Palmer or Drew Brees depending on who you chose in the tier before between Thomas or Fitzgerald. I will be splitting my exposure between them and favor Brees slightly as he gets the better matchup vs. the Packers who rank 19th in DVOA defense vs. the pass this season.

Tier 4

In the fourth tier, we get some middle of the road quarterbacks and all but Josh McCown face a defense that rank outside the Top 25 in DraftKings points per game to the position. Looking at the matchup and the weapons available to each, I favor Jared Goff in this tier who not has been the most productive but also sees a large gap in offense vs. defense as the Rams rank 5th in DVOA offense while the Cardinals rank 24th in DVOA offense. Alos, looking at Vegas lines, the Rams have the highest projected point total at the moment at 25.5 with Jaguars and Blake Bortles up next with 23.5 but I don’t trust Bortles one bit without his top wideout, Allen Robinson who was lost for the season. My second choice in this tier would be Tyrod Taylor who faces a Bucs defense that ranks 31st in DVOA defense vs. the pass and DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. He also adds the ability to rush the ball as he has done so 32 times this season for 121 yards.

Tier 5

For the record, I am a die-hard Vikings fan but will be avoiding both McKinnon and Thielen this week as this game has one of the lowest point totals of the week at 40. Not only that but the Ravens have allowed under 190 yards passing to their opponents and rank 2nd when looking at DVOA defense vs. the pass. When looking at the other two receivers, I prefer Jarvis Landry who has been Jay Cutler’s favorite option and sits second to only Antonio Brown with 11.4 targets per week. Kelvin Benjamin also sits with a questionable tag after leaving Wednesday’s practice with another knee injury. We are then left with two running backs who were teammates just two weeks ago but with Peterson being traded to the Cardinals, opens up more touches for both of them. In his first game with the Cards, Peterson went far and above expectation rushing 26 times for 134 yards with two touchdowns and looked like the “All Day” of old. While Ingram and the Saints have the edge when looking at Vegas(-5.5 favorites & 26.5 point projection), Peterson has the matchup edge as the Rams rank dead last in DraftKings points allowed per game to the running back position. I honestly don’t think you can go wrong with either this week.

Tier 6

The selection in tier six gets bigger but is not short of tough decisions. It starts with the injuries as Devonta Parker, DeMarco Murray, and Stefon Diggs all missed practice on Wednesday and are questionable to play on Sunday. Then we have a pair of wideouts who come with a ton of risk. It starts with Jordy Nelson who leads the league with six touchdown catches but lost his MVP quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, for the foreseeable future. Then we have last season’s receiving yards leader, T.Y. Hilton, who faces one of the toughest matchups in the league against a Jaguars team who has limited opponents to 166 yards per game and rank #1 when looking at DVOA defense vs. the pass. For me in this tier, it comes down to one of the three other running backs and I am torn between Jay Ajayi of the Dolphins and Christian McCaffrey of the Panthers. Ajayi has the preferred matchup vs. the Jets who rank 25th in DVOA defense vs. the rush and 26th in DraftKings points allowed to running backs while McCaffrey has been a PPR beast as he leads all backs with 8.3 targets per game and has totaled 293 yards and two touchdowns. It comes down to personal preference and for me, I will be splitting them and constructing multiple Pick’Em lineups.

Tier 7

The next tier gives us our first look at some tight ends and both have excellent matchups. Delanie Walker will be the lowest owned of the two as he is having a disappointing season, reaching the end zone just once through a rush. He gets an elite matchup vs. the Browns who rank dead last in DraftKings points per game to the position. Seferian-Jenkins has been targeted 19 times over the last two weeks, catching 14 of them and has scored a touchdown in both games. I think both make nice separation plays with the chalk picks in the other tiers but my favorite play in this tier is easily Davante Adams who was targeted 10 times by Brett Hundley last week after Rodgers exited the game and scored a touchdown. With most of the attention paid to Jordy Nelson, like most weeks, Adams should once again see a high target share vs. the Saints who rank 26th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts.

Tier 8

The final tier is another tough one and to start off, I will be avoiding Sammy Watkins who is likely going to draw shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson of the Cardinals. I think this is going to open up rookie Cooper Kupp in the slot to see possibly a team-high amount of targets this week in a much better matchup. I also really like the matchup for Duke Johnson this week facing a Titans team that ranks 25th in DVOA defense vs. the pass and the Browns have been using him almost exclusively as a receiving option. He is likely lower owned as well coming off a down week where he rushed for 40 yards and caught just three of five targets for -1 yards. This week it will be Deshon Kizer back behind center who he has been much more comfortable with this season.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!

*Chris Durell*

DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 5

Week four of the NFL season is in the books and we now move on to the bye weeks. Technically the Tampa Bay and Miami have already had their bye week due to Hurricane Irma but this week four teams(Atlanta, Denver, Washington, New Orleans) will be getting a break from the action. With the limited games, the DraftKings Pick’Em “Early Only” contest is limited to just six tiers this week so let’s jump and take a look at some of the top picks.

Tier 1

The first tier gives us eight quarterbacks with a lack of top matchups when looking at DraftKings points allowed to the position as the Lions, Jaguars, Panthers, and Bills all rank Top 10 in that area. My top options in this tier is Carson Palmer who faces a Eagles team that has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings per game(20.3) to quarterbacks and the third-most passing yards per game(285). If the Eagles are unable to get pressure on Palmer this week it could spell trouble for the secondary as the Cardinals have a speedy wide receiver core with J.J. Nelson and John Brown and then have to deal with Larry Fitzgerald who may have the most reliable hands in the league. Palmer will most likely be the chalk here as he currently sits third in tags at the QB position when looking at FanShareSports. Next on my list is Eli Manning who trails on Carson Palmer in attempts this season after tossing it up 47 and 49 times over the last two weeks. The Giants are desperate for their first win of the season and Eli has the advantage of throwing to one of, if not the best wideout in the game with Odell Beckham Jr. The matchup isn’t great, by any means, as the Chargers rank 13th in DK points allowed to QB’s this season but that should only help keep his ownership down and that appears to be the case as he ranks 10th in tags on FanShare as of Wednesday night.

Tier 2

In the second tier, we get a nice mix of elite wideouts and running backs. For the wide receivers, Antonio Brown gets the toughest matchup facing the Jags who have allowed the fewest passing yard per game(147) and rank 2nd in DK points per game allowed to receivers. This has me leaning Le’Veon Bell who is coming off a huge bounce-back week where he rushed for 144 yards and two touchdowns while catching four of six balls for an additional 42 yards. While the Jags have been dominant against the passing game, the same can’t be said for their rush defense as they have allowed the most yards per game(165.5) and rank 26th in DK points per game to the position. I am also in favor of rookie Leonard Fournette on the other side of the ball as the Steelers, like the Jags have been dominant vs. the pass but weak vs. the run. I talked about Eli above being one of my favorite quarterbacks due to the volume which automatically has me drifting towards OBJ who is averaging 8.3 targets per game. The only risk here is that he has been limited in practice this week due to an ankle injury. If it’s volume you are after, don’t discount the matchup for Keenan Allen who is likely going to see a ton of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie as he is averaging 10 targets per game and already has two 100-yard games in 2017. While the Dolphins pass game ranks in the bottom of the league(28th in passing DVOA), I do like DeVante Parker this week as the Titans rank 31st in DK points per game allowed to wideouts and Parker is averaging nine targets per game and has over 75 yards in each game so far.

Tier 3

In the third tier, I favor the wideouts who all get matchups vs. teams who rank 25th or worse when looking at DraftKings points allowed to the position. By default, I lean Larry Fitzgerald as I mentioned Carson Palmer in the QB section being my favorite. Even at 34 years of age, Fitzgerald has not lost a step and still remains up there with the games elite. He sits fifth in targets per game(10.3) and has scored a touchdown in back to back contests. My second favorite wideout is Pierre Garcon who is likely going to be lower owned coming off a poor outing vs. the Cardinals but consider he had a very tough matchup vs. Patrick Peterson. Garcon is the leading receiver for the 49ers and is averaging 8.3 targets per game and has a good shot to score his first touchdown of the season. Of the four running backs, I lean Melvin Gordon who faces a Giants defense that has allowed the fifth most rushing yards per game(142.8) and should see some added volume after making it clear he has been frustrated with his overall touches.

Tier 4

We get a couple tight ends in this tier but I will be avoiding them as it’s a vulnerable position and both players get tough matchups s the Bengals and Cardinals rank Top 5 against the position. Of the two running backs, I lean Christian McCaffrey who is getting a whopping 7.3 targets per game. This should continue in Week 5 as the Lions have held opponents to 86.3 rushing yards per game which has been Jonathan Stewart’s department through four weeks. Looking at the wideouts, I favor Rishard Matthews who faces a Dolphins defense who has allowed sixth-most passing yards per game(272.3) and ranks 21st in DK points allowed to the position.

Tier 5

The decisions become a bit more tricky as we get into the final two tiers but there are a couple players who stand out. First of all, I like Duke Johnson over Joe Mixon at the running back position as he faces a Jets team that ranks 27th in DVOA defense vs. the run. He gets out-touched in the run game by Isaiah Crowell but has a rushing touchdown in back to back games and provides most of his value via the passing game. He has seen his target share rise each week with 5, 6, 7, and 10 targets and now has over 200 yards through the air. I won’t be touching Alshon Jeffery in any format this week as not only has he underperformed through four weeks, he also gets a terrible matchup and is likely to be shadowed by Patrick Peterson. I like Sterling Shepard and John Brown in this tier who make nice stacking options with their quarterbacks(Manning & Palmer) who I mentioned in tier one.

Tier 6

Things get even tougher in the final tier this week as there is no one name that stands out, which I guess should help level out the ownership. I love the speed of J.J. Nelson vs. the Eagles defense but he presents a ton of risk as he has taken the biggest hit since the return of John Brown who I mentioned earlier. I do, however, like his teammate Andre Ellington who is working in a committee with Chris Johnson and despite being out-touched in the run game over the past three weeks(36-12), has been getting the majority of the targets out of the backfield(27 last three games) and has piled up 157 yards receiving over the past three games. Despite a tough matchup vs. the Panthers, my only other target in this tier is Ameer Abdullah who scored his first touchdown last week on a seaosn high 20 carries and 94 yards.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!

*Chris Durell*

DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 4

Week 4 in the 2017 NFL season is upon us and I am very excited to bring you a new weekly article looking at the DraftKings Pick’Em games. I will be breaking down each Tier and who is likely to be the chalk and who makes a nice pivot to separate yourself in the large field contests. When projecting ownership for fantasy, my main source is always FanShareSports. They track all relevant articles as well as social media mentions and put it all together in an easy to view “Most Tagged List” with sentiment ratings. It’s a great way to determine who is chalk and who will most likely be low owned. This week DraftKings has changed up their slate designations giving us just two Pick’Em slates. I will be looking only at the Sunday Early Only this week. With all that said, let’s jump right into the article.

TIER 1

The first tier has three elite wide receivers and looking at FanShareSports, it appears that A.J. Green is going to be the chalk here. He currently leads all wideouts in tags with 16 and is one of just two at the moment with double-digit start calls. It makes sense as Green gets the best matchup of the three facing the Browns who rank 13th in DraftKings points allowed per game to wideouts(32.3). In comparison, Antonio Brown has nine tags(7 start) and Julio Jones has seven tags(1 start). While Julio holds the Q tag this week, he is my top pivot in tier one. He has seen his targets increase each week and is the only receiver in this group on home field.

TIER 2

We get three elite running backs in tier two and the tags are fairly close at this point between Bell(14), McCoy(12), and Elliott(10). Gameflow is huge for running backs and looking at the Vegas lines, Ezekiel Elliot has the edge as the Cowboys are currently -6 at home to the Rams while McCoy and Bills are eight-point dogs. Bell and the Steelers are small -2.5 favorites on the road but the total is only 42. Looking at the matchups, Elliott and McCoy get the slight edge over bell as the Rams rank 30th and the Falcons 29th in DraftKings points allowed to running backs while the Ravens rank 18th. Elliott would be my top choice followed by Bell who has torched the Ravens for 100+ yards and a touchdown in two of their last three meetings. He has also received 20 targets in those three games with an additional touchdown scored.

TIER 3

Tier three expands to five players with a mix of running backs and wideouts. As of Wednesday afternoon, Devonta Freeman leads all five players with 14 tags (8 start) with fellow running backs Todd Gurley(9 tags, 4 for start) and Christian McCaffrey(9 tags, 7 for start) right behind. Of the three backs, Freeman has, by far, the worst matchup as the Bills rank 3rd overall in DraftKings points allowed. Gurley faces the Cowboys who rank 24th and McCaffrey gets the best matchup vs. the Pats who rank 31st through three games. While McCaffrey is seeing split carries with Jonathan Stewart, he has been heavily involved in the passing game with 23 targets which trails only the Bears Tarik Cohen. Bot wideouts make great pivots as they sit fourth and fifth in tags in this tier. Diggs has seven tags and has been terrific this season with two games over 90 yards receiving, both with two touchdowns. Cooks would be my deep pivot play as he has seen just three tags so far and appears to have built some chemistry with Tom Brady(caught game-winning TD last Sunday) after catching just five balls on 11 targets in the first two weeks.

TIER 4

Tier four gives us a mix of each non-quarterback position and so far this week is very chalky. Each player besides Dez Bryant has seen double-digit tags on FanShare with DeAndre Hopkins leading the way with 10 start calls. He faces a Titans team that ranks 29th in DraftKings points allowed per game to wideouts and leads everyone in the NFL with 12.3 targets per game. Both Cook and Fournetter have nice matchups as well as both the Jets(26th) and Lions(25th) rank near the bottom of the league in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs. I will be fading Gronk this week in both salary cap contests and pick’em as he draws one of the worst matchups for tight ends as the Panthers rank 3rd overall in DraftKings points per game to the tight end position.

TIER 5

The first of two quarterback tiers gives us some interesting options. Andy Dalton and Dak Prescott are the only two that have seen double-digit tags on FanShare so far with Dalton having the best matchup of the two as the Browns rank 25th in DraftKings points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Cam Newton is having a rough start to the season after offseason surgery but gets the best matchup on paper this Sunday as the Pats rank dead last in DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. If you are looking to completely separate yourself in the large tournaments I would consider Matthew Stafford who has just one tag right now as he faces a tough Vikings defense on the road. He does, however, lead all five of these QB’s with an average of 19.6 Dk points per game.

TIER 6

The second tier of quarterbacks includes a bunch of young guys and the veteran Super Bowl Champ, Joe Flacco. The most popular choice will definitely be rookie Deshaun Watson who nearly took down Bill Belichick and the Pats in Gillette Stadium last week. He only attempted 31 passes but threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns while also using his legs running eight times for 41 yards. While the Pats rank dead last vs. QB’s so far, the Titans aren’t far behind ranking 29th, allowing 22.7 DK points per game. I have no problem eating the chalk here in this tier. I will be fading Bortles simply due to the fact he is the only one of the QB’s that is a favorite this week which takes away from his projected pass attempts. I will also be fading Flacco who has only thrown for 300+ yards vs. the Steelers once in his last nine games. My secondary option in this tier would be Deshone Kizer who has attempted 30+ passe sin each of his first three games (47 last game) and like Watson, uses his legs effectively with 17 rushes for 87 yards and two touchdowns.

TIER 7

Tier seven is lead in a big way by Joe Mixon of the Bengals who is expected to see a bigger role this week. If I had to guess, I would expect Mixon to be about 40% or more owned in this tier as he is the only player to see double-digit tags(18) thus far and sits third overall which includes all positions. The Bengals are also road favorites which helps the game flow but the matchup is not in his favor as the Browns rank 10th in DK points allowed to running backs. The Patriots wideouts also face a tough matchup as the Panthers rank 6th in DK points allowed to WR’s but they do have Tom Brady throwing to them and if I had to choose one it would be Chris Hogan who has much more upside as a deep threat. Adam Thielen and Golden Tate face off in Minnesota this week and I would lean Thielen as Tate will likely draw shadow coverage from Xavier Rhodes who has shut everyone down this season

TIER 8

The final tier has two tight ends this week and I will be avoiding both as the position has been very inconsistent this season. We also get a choice between two of the Patriot running backs and game-flow makes the decision easy for me this week. The Patriots are currently nine-point favorites at home and projected to score around 28-30 points. That works into Mike Gillislee’s favor as he is the pounder of the two and gets the goaline work. Of the four wideouts, I lean Rishard Matthews who is averaging eight targets per week and has scored a touchdown in nine of his last 15 games.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!