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DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 7

by Chris Durell 0 Comments

*Chris Durell*

DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 7

Lineuplab.com - Start Winning on Draftkings and Fanduel

Welcome back for another week of daily fantasy football. The decisions are really starting to get interesting no matter the format you are playing as injuries are starting to pile up across the league. The good thing about the Pick’Em contests on DraftKings is that the decisions are not nearly as difficult. Let’s jump in and break down the players in each tier along with my favorite picks in each.

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

Tier 1

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

Rookie Leonard Fournette is neck and neck with Todd Gurley when looking at fantasy points per game this season. Fournette has the edge in rushing as he trails only Kareem Hunt in rushing yards with 596(4.6 per carry) while Gurley has 521 yards(4.2 per carry). Gurley has the slight lead in PPR points per game due to his 5.0 targets per game and 245 receiving yards while Fournette is averaging 3.3 targets per game with 145 yards receiving. Of the two backs, I lean Gurley as Fournette is questionable with an ankle injury and even if he plays could be limited as Chris Ivory looked good as his backup last week. If you are looking to go a bit off the board, LeSean McCoy is likely going to be lower owned than Gurley and has out targeted both the other backs averaging 6.4 per week. It makes sense as Tyrod Taylor doesn’t really have many targets these days. He gets a matchup vs. the Bucs who could be without Jameis Winston this week which should help with the game flow giving McCoy some extra opportunities if the Bills can get ahead early.

Tier 2

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

The second tier gives us three target monsters all on the road. Fitzgerald has been the most productive this season averaging 10.3 targets per game with 465 yards and three touchdowns but has the toughest matchup of the bunch vs. the Rams who rank 7th overall in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts and will see a lot of Nickell Robey-Coleman who has graded out as a Top 30 cornerback via Pro Football Focus. Mike Evans has yet to break 100 yards in a game and comes with a ton of risk if Jameis Winston should sit out. He also gets a tough matchup vs. the Bills who do sit in the middle of the pack when looking at the DraftKings points per game but rank 3rd overall when looking at DVOA defense vs. the pass. Michael Thomas trails both in targets per game(8.6) but gets the best matchup facing the Packers who rank 20th in DraftKings points per game and 19th when looking at DVOA defense vs. the pass. He also has the highest upside quarterback throwing to him in Drew Brees.

Tier 3

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

Right off the top, I will be fading both Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston for injury reasons. I already discussed Winston’s questionable tag as he is dealing with a shoulder issue and did not attempt any passes in Wednesday’s portion of practice. Mariota is working on a short week after returning for the Monday night game and was limited in the sense that he remained in the pocket for the majority of the game and only attempted two rushes for zero yards. For me this week, it is either Carson Palmer or Drew Brees depending on who you chose in the tier before between Thomas or Fitzgerald. I will be splitting my exposure between them and favor Brees slightly as he gets the better matchup vs. the Packers who rank 19th in DVOA defense vs. the pass this season.

Tier 4

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

In the fourth tier, we get some middle of the road quarterbacks and all but Josh McCown face a defense that rank outside the Top 25 in DraftKings points per game to the position. Looking at the matchup and the weapons available to each, I favor Jared Goff in this tier who not has been the most productive but also sees a large gap in offense vs. defense as the Rams rank 5th in DVOA offense while the Cardinals rank 24th in DVOA offense. Alos, looking at Vegas lines, the Rams have the highest projected point total at the moment at 25.5 with Jaguars and Blake Bortles up next with 23.5 but I don’t trust Bortles one bit without his top wideout, Allen Robinson who was lost for the season. My second choice in this tier would be Tyrod Taylor who faces a Bucs defense that ranks 31st in DVOA defense vs. the pass and DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. He also adds the ability to rush the ball as he has done so 32 times this season for 121 yards.

Tier 5

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

For the record, I am a die-hard Vikings fan but will be avoiding both McKinnon and Thielen this week as this game has one of the lowest point totals of the week at 40. Not only that but the Ravens have allowed under 190 yards passing to their opponents and rank 2nd when looking at DVOA defense vs. the pass. When looking at the other two receivers, I prefer Jarvis Landry who has been Jay Cutler’s favorite option and sits second to only Antonio Brown with 11.4 targets per week. Kelvin Benjamin also sits with a questionable tag after leaving Wednesday’s practice with another knee injury. We are then left with two running backs who were teammates just two weeks ago but with Peterson being traded to the Cardinals, opens up more touches for both of them. In his first game with the Cards, Peterson went far and above expectation rushing 26 times for 134 yards with two touchdowns and looked like the “All Day” of old. While Ingram and the Saints have the edge when looking at Vegas(-5.5 favorites & 26.5 point projection), Peterson has the matchup edge as the Rams rank dead last in DraftKings points allowed per game to the running back position. I honestly don’t think you can go wrong with either this week.

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

Tier 6

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

The selection in tier six gets bigger but is not short of tough decisions. It starts with the injuries as Devonta Parker, DeMarco Murray, and Stefon Diggs all missed practice on Wednesday and are questionable to play on Sunday. Then we have a pair of wideouts who come with a ton of risk. It starts with Jordy Nelson who leads the league with six touchdown catches but lost his MVP quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, for the foreseeable future. Then we have last season’s receiving yards leader, T.Y. Hilton, who faces one of the toughest matchups in the league against a Jaguars team who has limited opponents to 166 yards per game and rank #1 when looking at DVOA defense vs. the pass. For me in this tier, it comes down to one of the three other running backs and I am torn between Jay Ajayi of the Dolphins and Christian McCaffrey of the Panthers. Ajayi has the preferred matchup vs. the Jets who rank 25th in DVOA defense vs. the rush and 26th in DraftKings points allowed to running backs while McCaffrey has been a PPR beast as he leads all backs with 8.3 targets per game and has totaled 293 yards and two touchdowns. It comes down to personal preference and for me, I will be splitting them and constructing multiple Pick’Em lineups.

Tier 7

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

The next tier gives us our first look at some tight ends and both have excellent matchups. Delanie Walker will be the lowest owned of the two as he is having a disappointing season, reaching the end zone just once through a rush. He gets an elite matchup vs. the Browns who rank dead last in DraftKings points per game to the position. Seferian-Jenkins has been targeted 19 times over the last two weeks, catching 14 of them and has scored a touchdown in both games. I think both make nice separation plays with the chalk picks in the other tiers but my favorite play in this tier is easily Davante Adams who was targeted 10 times by Brett Hundley last week after Rodgers exited the game and scored a touchdown. With most of the attention paid to Jordy Nelson, like most weeks, Adams should once again see a high target share vs. the Saints who rank 26th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts.

Tier 8

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown

The final tier is another tough one and to start off, I will be avoiding Sammy Watkins who is likely going to draw shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson of the Cardinals. I think this is going to open up rookie Cooper Kupp in the slot to see possibly a team-high amount of targets this week in a much better matchup. I also really like the matchup for Duke Johnson this week facing a Titans team that ranks 25th in DVOA defense vs. the pass and the Browns have been using him almost exclusively as a receiving option. He is likely lower owned as well coming off a down week where he rushed for 40 yards and caught just three of five targets for -1 yards. This week it will be Deshon Kizer back behind center who he has been much more comfortable with this season.

 

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!






NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football: Week 6 Cash and GPP Plays

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

The Week 6 teams on bye aren’t as difficult to overcome compared to last week’s teams. This week the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, and Seattle Seahawks are all on bye. That being said there are a few games that are worth targeting if you are starting your research with Vegas totals. There are 7 games with a game total over 46 points, including the most appealing of them all in New Orleans (50). Let’s take a look at some plays this week from each position.

Quarterback:

NFL Lineups Daily Fantasy Football - Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints - Lineup lab

As I’ve mentioned throughout this year, quarterback ownership is almost always spread out equally, that there rarely is a QB that we see over 20% owned. That figures to be the case this week with several good options on the slate.

Drew Brees (DK $7,200, FD $8,600) – Brees is surprisingly not the highest priced QB on neither DK or FD. He’s the third priced QB on both sites and is in a pretty damn good spot. If you’re a football fan, you’re well aware of Bree’s home and road splits. Brees has averaged over 300 yards and has had a 2:1 TD to interception ratio in dome stadiums. This week Brees is at home coming off a bye against a Lions team that has been over performing to start the season. To add more frosting to the cake, Brees is a slight home favorite implied to score 27.25 points. This game has the slates highest over/under (50), so Vegas is expecting these two teams to light up the scoreboard. Brees will be popular this week.

Matthew Stafford (DK $ 6,500, FD $8,500) – For all the reasons mentioned in the Brees section, I think Stafford will be popular on this slate. He’s $700 cheaper on DK than Brees so the savings could make him higher owned than Brees, but on FD he’s essentially a pick ‘em with only $100 separating the two. This game is one of the few games with a high total and a relatively close spread so if any game is going to shoot out; it will likely be this one.

Deshaun Watson (DK $6,700, FD $7,900) – Watson is another QB I expect will garnish some ownership based on his recent play. Watson has averaged 31.8 DK points over the past 3 weeks, and his price spike reflects his performance. He does have a good matchup as a home favorite against the Browns who are worst in the league in adjusted fantasy points allowed (26.3). His rushing ability gives him a nice floor for cash games, but in gpps, I like fading him for my favorite quarterback on the week (next player). He’s not a bad play at all, but he’s gotten to be a little too expensive for my taste, especially when you consider that most of his TD production last week came during garbage time against the Chiefs.

Kirk Cousins (DK $6,800, FD $ 7,800) – Cousins is the same price point as the last two QBs I mentioned above, and I feel he will be the least owned, which is why I like him for gpps. Cousins is coming off of a bye week and facing the 49ers who are coming off their second consecutive road overtime loss. Cousins and the Redskins go into week 6 with the highest implied team total (28.8) and are 10.5 point favorites. The 49ers are probably the best winless team in the league, losing 4 games by a combined 11 points, but their secondary can be attacked. Per PFF, the 49ers have 3 of the worst rated corners. Dontae Johnson rated no. 108 of 109, Rashard Robinson is no. 104, and K’Waun Williams is no. 99. The Redskins should be able to attack through the air, especially with Rob Kelly expected to be out.

Bargain Barrel:

Carson Palmer, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett

Running Backs:

NFL Lineups Daily Fantasy Football - DeVonta Freeman - Lineuplab.com

Kareem Hunt (DK $8,200, FD $9,300) – I wasn’t going to write up Hunt because by now you should be aware of the amount of volume he’s been getting this season. On DK he’s $1,400 cheap than Bell, which is insane when you factor in that the Chiefs are home favorites over the Steelers. Hunt lost a lot of fantasy points last week with two flukey touchdowns by Charcandrick West. This week Hunt is going up against the Steelers who are 31st DVOA against the run and just got burned for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns from top rookie Leonard Fournette. Hunt is currently projected as our top RB this week over Bell, regardless of price.

Leonard Fournette (DK, $8,000, FD, $8,600) – Speaking of rookies. It’s about time to start talking about Fournette on a consistent basis. He’s averaging 24 touches per game and has scored in all but one game this season. There’s no secret the Jags are trying to keep the ball out of Bortles’ hands as much, which leads to Fournette carrying the offensive workload. Through the first 5 weeks, Fournette has received 70% of the carries and has been targeted 15 times. He’s going up against a Rams defense that ranks 32nd in aFPA (32.8). The Jags are a slight home favorite, so that also bodes well for Fournette.

Devonta Freeman (DK $7,400, FD $ 8,500) – Freeman is the better play on DK since his salary gives you bigger savings from the two backs mentioned above. Freeman has the luxury of playing behind the number 1 rated run blocking offensive line according to PFF. The Falcons are among the biggest home favorites this week (11.5) and are implied to score over 28 points. The Dolphins rank in the middle of the pack in aFPA with an average of 21 PPG. There’s always a concern with splitting carries with Tevin Coleman, but through the Falcons first 4 games, Freeman has 73% of the carries compared to Coleman’s 27%.

Mark Ingram (DK $4,400, FD $ 5,900) – A true committee that a lot of DFS players will have their eye on. With the trade of Adrian Peterson, this backfield is now a true timeshare between Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara (DK $4,500, FD $ 5,800). My initial thought is that Kamara will be the more popular back because of his involvement in the passing game and his big game before last week’s bye. Kamara went for 25.6 DK points on 10 receptions for 71 yards and a TD. This game has shootout written all over it so Kamara could continue to see more passing targets out of the backfield. My only concern here is that although Ingram is being phased out by the coaches, he’s still seeing over 55% of the carries and 36% of the targets. Ingram does have pass-catching upside and is still the goal line back, so he’d be the preferred choice on FD. However, on DK I think I’d have to lean on Kamara for the bigger PPR upside.

Jerick McKinnon (DK $4,100, FD $5,600) – Another running back situation that people will monitor is the Vikings’ committee. Last week in their first week without Delvin Cook, McKinnon saw 67% of the snaps compared to Murray who saw 31%. The carries were 55% for McKinnon and 41% to Murray. McKinnon led all backs with 6 receptions on 6 targets, while Murray seemed to be phased out in the second half. McKinnon was more successful with his workload averaging 5.9 YPC compared to Murray’s 2.6. McKinnon is currently rated as our top value play (points per dollar) on DK and FD.

Chris Thompson (DK $5,000) – A nice GPP pivot off the chalkier cheaper options I mentioned above. If Rob Kelly misses like the reports indicate he is, Thompson could be a great gpp option against the 49ers. He’s not that cheap on DK but has a lot of upside. Samaje Perine could work the early downs but Thompson is the featured back in the passing game, which I expect the Redskins to focus on.

Other Viable Options:

CJ Anderson, M. Gordon, T. Gurley, A. Jones *T. Montgomery out*, L. Miller, E. McGuire.

Wide Receivers:

NFL Lineups Daily Fantasy Football - DeAndre Hopkins - Lineup Lab 

Wide Receiver is a little more open season when compared to running backs. There are a lot of teams that are big favorites so there are really only a few passing offenses that you want to use.

DeAndre Hopkins (DK $8,100, FD $8,000) – Nuke’s price took a STEEP hike on DK, rising over $1,700 after a 3 touchdown performance against the Chiefs. But even at over 8K, that price is finally warranted for a guy that is receiving over 12 targets per game. Through 5 weeks of the season, Hopkins only trails Antonio Brown for most targets in the league. This week Hopkins has an above average matchup against Jason McCourty, who actually has a great grade on PFF(91.7), but the past two seasons he’s averaged a grade in the mid 50’s. It’s also worth noting that Hopkins is expected to lineup against Jamar Taylor (has a 45.1 PFF rating) in two WR sets. Hopkins should be able to produce with the 12+ targets he’s expected to see.

Julio Jones (DK, $8,300, FD $8,400) – I have yet to roster Julio this season, and thankfully so. Julio has yet to score this year and only has 30 targets on the season (4 games). But I have a feeling this is the week we see Julio get back on track. The Falcons are really thin at WR and Julio will be facing either Cordrea Tankersley or Xavien Howard. Regardless of who Julio matches up against, he’s virtually matchup proof. Julio notoriously plays better at home than on the road. It’s about time Julio finds the endzone this week.

Pierre Garcon (DK $ 6,300, FD $6,800) – I loved Garcon last week against the Colts despite going up against Vontae Davis. This week I want to go back to the well in a game that I expect the 49ers to be trailing. The Redskins will be without Josh Norman which helps Garcon. Garcon is currently 8th in the league in targets with 44 through 5 games. This week Garcon could face Quinton Dunbar and Bashaud Breeland who are both targetable corners. I expect Garcon to get 10-12 targets this game and can very well see him putting up over 14 fantasy points.

Adam Thielen (DK $6,000 FD $6,500) – Thielen gets a great matchup here against a bad Packers secondary. Thielen is the primary slot receiver for the Vikings so he’ll face Quinten Rollins who is one of the worst slot corners according to PFF. The Packers should jump out to an early lead, which would mean the Vikings would have to pass the ball more. It’s worth monitoring Bradford’s status as game day gets closer.

Cash Viable Plays:

M. Thomas, K.Allen, L. Fitzgerald, J. Landry, G. Tate,  C. Hogan, A. Cooper.

Gpp Flyers:

D. Jackson, John Brown, M. Jones Jr., T. Hill, D. Amendola, B. Cooks, T. Pryor Sr.

Value Receivers

A. Wilson, J. Kearse, J. Crowder.

Tight Ends:

Hunter Henry - NFL Lineups Daily Fantasy Football - San Diego Chargers - Lineuplab.com

Hunter Henry (DK $4,100, FD $5,400) – Henry looks to have finally taken over the tight end position for the Chargers. After 3 weeks of force-feeding Antonio Gates, Henry has finally become a part of the offense. He has now scored in two straight weeks. He ran 33 routes in over 75% of snaps he played last week.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (DK $4,300, FD $5,600) – ASJ came through last week by scoring a touchdown. That now gives him an average of 6 targets the past 3 weeks. He’s going up against the Patriots who will get out to a big lead and have allowed the most passing yards in the league. 

Travis Kelce (DK $6,100, FD $7,200) – Kelce is the top projected TE on both sites this week. Kelce has 20 targets the last two weeks. Keep an eye out on the Chiefs injury report to make sure Kelce is active.

Defense:

 NFL Lineups Daily Fantasy Football - Baltimore Ravens - Lineuplab.com

There are 5 teams that are currently more than a touchdown favorite. The Patriots are the only team in that bunch that is not at home. The Ravens (16.5), Falcons (17.25), Redskins (18), Texans (18.5), and the Patriots (20) are all going up against teams implied to score less than 20 points. Defense is very volatile so any one of these could land atop the leaderboards. The Ravens are currently our top projected defense. While the Bucs are the best value projected to score nearly 3x.

Good Luck!






DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 5

by Chris Durell 0 Comments

*Chris Durell*

DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 5

Lineuplab.com - Start Winning on Draftkings and Fanduel

Week four of the NFL season is in the books and we now move on to the bye weeks. Technically the Tampa Bay and Miami have already had their bye week due to Hurricane Irma but this week four teams(Atlanta, Denver, Washington, New Orleans) will be getting a break from the action. With the limited games, the DraftKings Pick’Em “Early Only” contest is limited to just six tiers this week so let’s jump and take a look at some of the top picks.

Tier 1

The first tier gives us eight quarterbacks with a lack of top matchups when looking at DraftKings points allowed to the position as the Lions, Jaguars, Panthers, and Bills all rank Top 10 in that area. My top options in this tier is Carson Palmer who faces a Eagles team that has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings per game(20.3) to quarterbacks and the third-most passing yards per game(285). If the Eagles are unable to get pressure on Palmer this week it could spell trouble for the secondary as the Cardinals have a speedy wide receiver core with J.J. Nelson and John Brown and then have to deal with Larry Fitzgerald who may have the most reliable hands in the league. Palmer will most likely be the chalk here as he currently sits third in tags at the QB position when looking at FanShareSports. Next on my list is Eli Manning who trails on Carson Palmer in attempts this season after tossing it up 47 and 49 times over the last two weeks. The Giants are desperate for their first win of the season and Eli has the advantage of throwing to one of, if not the best wideout in the game with Odell Beckham Jr. The matchup isn’t great, by any means, as the Chargers rank 13th in DK points allowed to QB’s this season but that should only help keep his ownership down and that appears to be the case as he ranks 10th in tags on FanShare as of Wednesday night.

Tier 2

In the second tier, we get a nice mix of elite wideouts and running backs. For the wide receivers, Antonio Brown gets the toughest matchup facing the Jags who have allowed the fewest passing yard per game(147) and rank 2nd in DK points per game allowed to receivers. This has me leaning Le’Veon Bell who is coming off a huge bounce-back week where he rushed for 144 yards and two touchdowns while catching four of six balls for an additional 42 yards. While the Jags have been dominant against the passing game, the same can’t be said for their rush defense as they have allowed the most yards per game(165.5) and rank 26th in DK points per game to the position. I am also in favor of rookie Leonard Fournette on the other side of the ball as the Steelers, like the Jags have been dominant vs. the pass but weak vs. the run. I talked about Eli above being one of my favorite quarterbacks due to the volume which automatically has me drifting towards OBJ who is averaging 8.3 targets per game. The only risk here is that he has been limited in practice this week due to an ankle injury. If it’s volume you are after, don’t discount the matchup for Keenan Allen who is likely going to see a ton of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie as he is averaging 10 targets per game and already has two 100-yard games in 2017. While the Dolphins pass game ranks in the bottom of the league(28th in passing DVOA), I do like DeVante Parker this week as the Titans rank 31st in DK points per game allowed to wideouts and Parker is averaging nine targets per game and has over 75 yards in each game so far.

Tier 3

In the third tier, I favor the wideouts who all get matchups vs. teams who rank 25th or worse when looking at DraftKings points allowed to the position. By default, I lean Larry Fitzgerald as I mentioned Carson Palmer in the QB section being my favorite. Even at 34 years of age, Fitzgerald has not lost a step and still remains up there with the games elite. He sits fifth in targets per game(10.3) and has scored a touchdown in back to back contests. My second favorite wideout is Pierre Garcon who is likely going to be lower owned coming off a poor outing vs. the Cardinals but consider he had a very tough matchup vs. Patrick Peterson. Garcon is the leading receiver for the 49ers and is averaging 8.3 targets per game and has a good shot to score his first touchdown of the season. Of the four running backs, I lean Melvin Gordon who faces a Giants defense that has allowed the fifth most rushing yards per game(142.8) and should see some added volume after making it clear he has been frustrated with his overall touches.

Tier 4

We get a couple tight ends in this tier but I will be avoiding them as it’s a vulnerable position and both players get tough matchups s the Bengals and Cardinals rank Top 5 against the position. Of the two running backs, I lean Christian McCaffrey who is getting a whopping 7.3 targets per game. This should continue in Week 5 as the Lions have held opponents to 86.3 rushing yards per game which has been Jonathan Stewart’s department through four weeks. Looking at the wideouts, I favor Rishard Matthews who faces a Dolphins defense who has allowed sixth-most passing yards per game(272.3) and ranks 21st in DK points allowed to the position.

Tier 5

The decisions become a bit more tricky as we get into the final two tiers but there are a couple players who stand out. First of all, I like Duke Johnson over Joe Mixon at the running back position as he faces a Jets team that ranks 27th in DVOA defense vs. the run. He gets out-touched in the run game by Isaiah Crowell but has a rushing touchdown in back to back games and provides most of his value via the passing game. He has seen his target share rise each week with 5, 6, 7, and 10 targets and now has over 200 yards through the air. I won’t be touching Alshon Jeffery in any format this week as not only has he underperformed through four weeks, he also gets a terrible matchup and is likely to be shadowed by Patrick Peterson. I like Sterling Shepard and John Brown in this tier who make nice stacking options with their quarterbacks(Manning & Palmer) who I mentioned in tier one.

Tier 6

Things get even tougher in the final tier this week as there is no one name that stands out, which I guess should help level out the ownership. I love the speed of J.J. Nelson vs. the Eagles defense but he presents a ton of risk as he has taken the biggest hit since the return of John Brown who I mentioned earlier. I do, however, like his teammate Andre Ellington who is working in a committee with Chris Johnson and despite being out-touched in the run game over the past three weeks(36-12), has been getting the majority of the targets out of the backfield(27 last three games) and has piled up 157 yards receiving over the past three games. Despite a tough matchup vs. the Panthers, my only other target in this tier is Ameer Abdullah who scored his first touchdown last week on a seaosn high 20 carries and 94 yards.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!

 

DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 4

by Chris Durell 0 Comments

*Chris Durell*

DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 4

Lineuplab.com - Start Winning on Draftkings and Fanduel

Week 4 in the 2017 NFL season is upon us and I am very excited to bring you a new weekly article looking at the DraftKings Pick’Em games. I will be breaking down each Tier and who is likely to be the chalk and who makes a nice pivot to separate yourself in the large field contests. When projecting ownership for fantasy, my main source is always FanShareSports. They track all relevant articles as well as social media mentions and put it all together in an easy to view “Most Tagged List” with sentiment ratings. It’s a great way to determine who is chalk and who will most likely be low owned. This week DraftKings has changed up their slate designations giving us just two Pick’Em slates. I will be looking only at the Sunday Early Only this week. With all that said, let’s jump right into the article.

Ezekiel Elliott - DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

TIER 1

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

The first tier has three elite wide receivers and looking at FanShareSports, it appears that A.J. Green is going to be the chalk here. He currently leads all wideouts in tags with 16 and is one of just two at the moment with double-digit start calls. It makes sense as Green gets the best matchup of the three facing the Browns who rank 13th in DraftKings points allowed per game to wideouts(32.3). In comparison, Antonio Brown has nine tags(7 start) and Julio Jones has seven tags(1 start). While Julio holds the Q tag this week, he is my top pivot in tier one. He has seen his targets increase each week and is the only receiver in this group on home field.

TIER 2

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

We get three elite running backs in tier two and the tags are fairly close at this point between Bell(14), McCoy(12), and Elliott(10). Gameflow is huge for running backs and looking at the Vegas lines, Ezekiel Elliot has the edge as the Cowboys are currently -6 at home to the Rams while McCoy and Bills are eight-point dogs. Bell and the Steelers are small -2.5 favorites on the road but the total is only 42. Looking at the matchups, Elliott and McCoy get the slight edge over bell as the Rams rank 30th and the Falcons 29th in DraftKings points allowed to running backs while the Ravens rank 18th. Elliott would be my top choice followed by Bell who has torched the Ravens for 100+ yards and a touchdown in two of their last three meetings. He has also received 20 targets in those three games with an additional touchdown scored.

TIER 3

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Tier three expands to five players with a mix of running backs and wideouts. As of Wednesday afternoon, Devonta Freeman leads all five players with 14 tags (8 start) with fellow running backs Todd Gurley(9 tags, 4 for start) and Christian McCaffrey(9 tags, 7 for start) right behind. Of the three backs, Freeman has, by far, the worst matchup as the Bills rank 3rd overall in DraftKings points allowed. Gurley faces the Cowboys who rank 24th and McCaffrey gets the best matchup vs. the Pats who rank 31st through three games. While McCaffrey is seeing split carries with Jonathan Stewart, he has been heavily involved in the passing game with 23 targets which trails only the Bears Tarik Cohen. Bot wideouts make great pivots as they sit fourth and fifth in tags in this tier. Diggs has seven tags and has been terrific this season with two games over 90 yards receiving, both with two touchdowns. Cooks would be my deep pivot play as he has seen just three tags so far and appears to have built some chemistry with Tom Brady(caught game-winning TD last Sunday) after catching just five balls on 11 targets in the first two weeks.

TIER 4

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Tier four gives us a mix of each non-quarterback position and so far this week is very chalky. Each player besides Dez Bryant has seen double-digit tags on FanShare with DeAndre Hopkins leading the way with 10 start calls. He faces a Titans team that ranks 29th in DraftKings points allowed per game to wideouts and leads everyone in the NFL with 12.3 targets per game. Both Cook and Fournetter have nice matchups as well as both the Jets(26th) and Lions(25th) rank near the bottom of the league in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs. I will be fading Gronk this week in both salary cap contests and pick’em as he draws one of the worst matchups for tight ends as the Panthers rank 3rd overall in DraftKings points per game to the tight end position.

TIER 5

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

The first of two quarterback tiers gives us some interesting options. Andy Dalton and Dak Prescott are the only two that have seen double-digit tags on FanShare so far with Dalton having the best matchup of the two as the Browns rank 25th in DraftKings points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Cam Newton is having a rough start to the season after offseason surgery but gets the best matchup on paper this Sunday as the Pats rank dead last in DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. If you are looking to completely separate yourself in the large tournaments I would consider Matthew Stafford who has just one tag right now as he faces a tough Vikings defense on the road. He does, however, lead all five of these QB’s with an average of 19.6 Dk points per game.

TIER 6

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

The second tier of quarterbacks includes a bunch of young guys and the veteran Super Bowl Champ, Joe Flacco. The most popular choice will definitely be rookie Deshaun Watson who nearly took down Bill Belichick and the Pats in Gillette Stadium last week. He only attempted 31 passes but threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns while also using his legs running eight times for 41 yards. While the Pats rank dead last vs. QB’s so far, the Titans aren’t far behind ranking 29th, allowing 22.7 DK points per game. I have no problem eating the chalk here in this tier. I will be fading Bortles simply due to the fact he is the only one of the QB’s that is a favorite this week which takes away from his projected pass attempts. I will also be fading Flacco who has only thrown for 300+ yards vs. the Steelers once in his last nine games. My secondary option in this tier would be Deshone Kizer who has attempted 30+ passe sin each of his first three games (47 last game) and like Watson, uses his legs effectively with 17 rushes for 87 yards and two touchdowns.

TIER 7

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Tier seven is lead in a big way by Joe Mixon of the Bengals who is expected to see a bigger role this week. If I had to guess, I would expect Mixon to be about 40% or more owned in this tier as he is the only player to see double-digit tags(18) thus far and sits third overall which includes all positions. The Bengals are also road favorites which helps the game flow but the matchup is not in his favor as the Browns rank 10th in DK points allowed to running backs. The Patriots wideouts also face a tough matchup as the Panthers rank 6th in DK points allowed to WR’s but they do have Tom Brady throwing to them and if I had to choose one it would be Chris Hogan who has much more upside as a deep threat. Adam Thielen and Golden Tate face off in Minnesota this week and I would lean Thielen as Tate will likely draw shadow coverage from Xavier Rhodes who has shut everyone down this season

TIER 8

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

The final tier has two tight ends this week and I will be avoiding both as the position has been very inconsistent this season. We also get a choice between two of the Patriot running backs and game-flow makes the decision easy for me this week. The Patriots are currently nine-point favorites at home and projected to score around 28-30 points. That works into Mike Gillislee’s favor as he is the pounder of the two and gets the goaline work. Of the four wideouts, I lean Rishard Matthews who is averaging eight targets per week and has scored a touchdown in nine of his last 15 games.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!






NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football: Week 3 Cash and GPP Plays

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

We close the book on Week 2 of the NFL season after a relatively chalky NFL slate. We saw several of the obvious plays hit like Tom Brady, Ty Montgomery, Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, and even Coby Fleener all hit value

 

Now we transition to Week 3, which opens up as an unusual ten home teams as current underdogs. The Patriots, Eagles, Panthers, Titans, and Packers are the only home teams that are favored in the main slate. That doesn’t exactly say everything about the slate quite yet; it just means ownership may be more spread out than what we’ve seen the first two weeks. So without further or do, let’s dive in.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan (DK $7,100, FD $8,500) – One of the first things I look for when looking into Quarterbacks are team implied totals. Matt Ryan comes in after a dominant performance against the Packers on Sunday Night Football with an implied team total of 26.75 against the Lions. That’s good enough for third highest on the slate behind only the Patriots and the Raiders. The Lions are currently 12 worst in the league by averaging 236 passing yards per game and are averaging 40 passing attempts allowed per game. This game originally opened up with a 48.5 o/u and has since moved to 50.5, which is good enough for the second highest total of the week. The game is on the road for the Falcons, and Ryan is known for performing better at home, so there is a reason to temper expectations. But in a matchup against an improved Lions offense with a secondary bad secondary, the game flow could mean Ryan will a lot of opportunities to chuck the ball.

Matthew Stafford (DK $6,200, FD $7,900) – Pivoting to the other side of the ball, Stafford has done reasonably well his first two weeks against the Cardinals and the Giants. Two opponents that are tougher on paper than his matchup this week. Stafford comes into the week as a 3 point underdog and with an implied team total of 23.75. Stafford is returning home where he threw for 4 touchdowns and 292 yards in Week 1 against a good Cardinals secondary. Out of all the games this week, this Lions/Falcons game is my favorite for quarterback points.

Kirk Cousins (DK $6,100, FD $7,600) – Cousins has been disappointing the first two weeks. He had a disappointing game on the road against the Rams and was mediocre against the Eagles in the opening week. This week could potentially be a rebound spot for Cousins. He’s at home facing a Raiders defense that has been overachieving the first two weeks of the season. The Raiders are averaging only 200 passing yards per game and have only allowed two passing touchdowns on the year. Last year the Raiders were one of the worst secondaries in the league and did very little to improve that unit this offseason. Oakland does have one of the league’s best offenses in the league, which explains the high o/u at 54 (highest of the week). Give me a low-owned Kirk Cousins against a weak secondary at home, even as a 3 point underdog.

Value QB

Andy Dalton (DK $5,100, FD $6,800) – Andy Dalton has been terrible the first two weeks. In fact, the entire Bengals offense has as they are 1 of 2 teams (49ers) that have yet to find the end zone this season. That being said, Dalton has had two difficult matchups after facing the Ravens and the Texans on a short week. The Bengals opened the week as a 10 point underdog on the road against the Packers, but have since narrowed the line to +8.5. Aaron Rodgers is without a doubt looking to light up the scoreboard after getting run over by the Falcons (again) on national TV, so I expect Dalton to have plenty of garbage time opportunities to throw the ball.

Running Backs

Le’Veon Bell (DK $8,800, FD $8,700) – To say Bell has been disappointing the first two weeks is an understatement. He’s been so disappointing that Elliott eclipsed him as the most expensive running back on this week. But this week could be the week we get Bell at depressed ownership and in a bounce-back spot. He doesn’t quite check all the boxes going up against an improved front seven in Chicago, but the Steelers are 7 point favorites. We saw Bell get 27 rushes last week and also 4 targets, so the volume is much improved after that bizarre first week. We all know Big Ben’s struggles on the road, yet the Steelers are still are implied to score 26 points. This should be a get well spot for Bell.

CJ Anderson (DK $5,800, FD $6,900) – Anderson is way too cheap on DK at 5.8k. The Broncos have shown that Anderson is the feature back while Jamaal Charles has only found his way on the field in passing situations. Anderson owns 70% of the Broncos rushing attempts after two weeks and has produced just under 200 yards (199). He also has 4 catches on 6 targets, which adds to his value on DK. The Broncos are a 3 point favorite against the Bills in a game that could feature both running backs with their pedestrian passing games and minimal projections. Anderson is projected as the third best running pack (point per dollar) on LineupLabs.

Isaiah Crowell (DK $4,800, FD $6,600) – If you drafted Crowell as I did in season long or redraft leagues, you’re probably frustrated with the thought of playing him in DFS. But the truth is, if there is ever a spot to play Crowell, it might be this week. Crowell is facing a Colts defense whose defensive line may have more holes than swiss cheese. This game has one of the lowest totals on the week and rightfully so as both teams have young offenses. Crowell does have the luxury of running behind the best offensive line in the league per PFF.com, so this could be a breakout week for Crowell.

GPP Flyer

Mike Gillislee (DK $5,700, FD $6,800) – Probably the better site to play him is on FD since he’s so touchdown dependent, but that’s exactly why he’s a shot in the dark. Gillislee has scored 4 touchdowns in the first two weeks. He leads the league in rushes inside the 5-yard line, converting each 4 of his carries into touchdowns. Although Gillislee is touchdown dependent, he does own 59% of the market share of rushes out of the Patriots backfield. The Pats are the biggest favorite of the week (13.5), and at home so Gillislee should get a shot at a cheap TD.

Cash game plays not noted above: M. Gordon, K. Hunt, J. Ajayi, T. Montgomery.
GPP Flyers: L.McCoy, D. Freeman, C. McCaffrey

Wide Receivers:

AJ Green (DK $8,100, FD $ 7,500) – I talked about Green’s quarterback up top. I like the idea of targeting this game from the Bengals passing attack with the likelihood that they will be playing catch-up for the majority of the game. Green currently accounts for 30% of the Bengals’ targets through the first two games of the season. He’s seen 18 targets and has caught 10 of them for 141 yards. He has yet to find the end zone, but as I mentioned with Dalton, they have had two tough matchups. This week they go up against a Packers secondary that got torched by Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu in really what was only one-half of competitive football. The Packers rank 18th in the league in FP allowed to opposing WR by allowing 18 points through the first two weeks. I can see Green getting one, possibly two touchdowns in garbage time.

Michael Crabtree (DK $7,400, FD  $7,700) – I really thought that Amari Cooper was going to peak this season and Crabtree was going to begin declining. That clearly wasn’t the case last week when Crabtree scored 3 times on 6 targets, while Cooper only saw 5. I still think this may happen, but at least for this week, Crabtree might be the play over Cooper again. The big reason is that I expect Josh Norman to spend most of his time against Cooper, which would leave Crabtree lined up against Bashaud Breeland who currently has a PFF grade of 67.2. If Crabtree does face Breeland throughout the game, he should be able to find the end zone again.

Value

Rashard Higgins (DK $4,000, FD $5,100) – Higgins got a lot more playing time once the Brown’s top receiver Corey Coleman left the game. Coleman was eventually placed on IR and Higgins looks to be the biggest beneficiary from the move. Higgins got 11 targets from Kizer and caught 7 for 95 yards last week.

Devin Funchess (DK $4,200, FD $4,800) – With the injury to tight end Greg Olsen, Cam Newton will have to find someone over the middle of the field to dump the ball off. Per PFF.com, Funches is expected to lineup in 2 and 3 wide receiver sets against P.J. Williams. Williams is by far the Saints worst graded corner (42.7) in a secondary that has gotten torched by Brady and Bradford to begin the season. With Olsen out that’s going to open up more targets for the Panthers passing attack. I expect McCaffrey to see an uptick in targets but Funches should also benefit from Olsen’s absence.

** Devonte Adams is practically a free square if Nelson and Cobb are out ** 

GPP Flyer

DeAndre Hopkins (DK $6,200, FD $ 7,500) – Similar to Green’s situation, Hopkins is likely to find his team chasing a high-powered offense. Hopkins is currently third in the NFL in targets with 13 and also leads the NFL in team target market share 54.2%. It’s amazing how Watson just continues to chuck the ball Hopkins way. The Pats are currently 29th in the league against WR by allowing an average of 27.6 points to opposing wideouts. Hopkins is GPP only because Belichick is notorious for taking away the opposing team’s best weapon, which is Nuke.

Other Middle/Top Tier Options: M. Evans (GPP), K. Allen (Cash), D. Baldwin (GPP), T. Hill (Cash)

Tight End

For the first time this season there isn’t a clear-cut chalk tight end that will be heavily owned in cash games. At least for now. Below are a few of the best options when considering price per dollar spent.

Martellus Bennett (DK $4,400, FD $ 5,600) – Bennett is the tight end that I’m watching pretty closely. As I’m writing this Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have missed practice early in the week after leaving last week’s game against the Falcons. If one or neither of these players play that leaves plenty of targets up for grabs for the Packers, pass catchers, and I expect Bennett to be a beneficiary. Last week Bennett saw 11 targets with both Nelson and Cobb out of the game. Bennett would face a Bengals defense that ranked 30th in the league against tight ends last season.

Jack Doyle (DK $ 3,600, FD $5,300) – Doyle may be the heaviest owned TE on the week considering many DFS players will stick to recency bias and save their money by using Doyle as their value play. Doyle is certainly cheap and is coming off of a nice outing with Colts’ new quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Brissett targeted Doyle 8 times last week and Doyle caught every one of those targets and gained 79 yards to lead the team in receiving.

GPP Flyer

Jordan Reed (DK $5,400, FD $ 6,700) – Reed is limited to a tournament play only because he has missed practice early this week. Reed is listed as questionable which is likely to drive down his ownership. I already expressed my interest in the ‘skins offense in the QB section and I think adding Reed to a game stack for this Sunday night hammer could lead to a big payoff. Reed is among the top 5 TE in targets this season accounting for 20% of the team’s targets.

Cash game plays not noted above: Z. Ertz, T. Kelce, E. Ebron

Gpp Flyer: R. Gronkowski, D. Allen (if Gronk is inactive)

Defense

With 10 home teams as current underdogs ownership is likely to be spread out at defense.

New England Patriots (DK $3,800, FD $4,900) – The Patriots are at home facing the Texans who are implied to score a slate low 15.25 points. According to Vegas, they seem like the safest play. The issue is that they’re the most expensive option on DK and 4th most expensive on FD. If you’re able to fit them in your lineups, you probably should. Belichick will without a doubt have a scheme to unravel rookie QB Deshaun Watson

Tennessee Titans (DK $ 2,700, FD $4,300) – If you’re scraping the bottom of the barrel on defense I won’t blame you. As we get deeper in the week, I find myself justifying using the Titans for a few reasons. They’re home favorites (-3), Russell Wilson’s terrible home/road splits, and the Seahawks’ team total has dropped from 20.25 to 19.75. The Seahawks haven’t got their offense going this season and were lucky to survive a home game against the 49ers. The Titans like to control the clock by running the ball which could limit possessions, which limits scoring

 

Our NFL Optimizer, Projections, and Player Lab tools are officially online!

by Cory Hanley 0 Comments

NFL Optimizer - Lineuplab.com

Your NFL Season starts now with our NFL Optimizer

We want to thank everyone for helping to make this our 4th NFL season to offer Lineup Lab to the general public. We have seen our users hit many top place finishes and are looking forward to some big NFL wins in 2017!

For projections, we have partnered again with 4for4 and DFSR this season to provide our users with the best NFL projections possible. 4for4 still holds the title as the most accurate projector over the last 6 years and DFSR generated a million dollar DK winner last season.

If you are looking to tackle an NFL tournament this season, give Lineup Lab a try. Calculate optimal lineups, leverage the most accurate projections, auto-submit hundreds of lineups with ease, and find NFL’s hidden gems with our advanced DFS tools.

Click here to get started. Or if you are ready to go pro, view our packages here.

Good luck and thanks again for being part of the Lineup Lab family!

Blake
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Fantasy Football Season Preview: Wide Receivers 2017

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

**Mike Barner**

Fantasy Football Season Preview Wide Receivers 2017

The long journey through the NFL season is rapidly approaching, meaning it’s one of the most exciting times of the year: drafting your fantasy football team. While you need your players to stay healthy and have a little luck go your way, having a strong draft can go a long way to determining the fate of your season.

Lineup Lab is here to help you come away a winner. In the third of our season previews, we’ll break down the wide receiver position. With the creation of PPR scoring, wide receivers are more valuable now than ever before. Even in standard scoring, creating a stable of quality receivers can help separate you from your competition. Teams are throwing the ball a lot now and using three-receiver sets more often, creating tremendous depth at the position for fantasy owners.

Whether you want to draft elite wide receivers early or select a sleeper or two in the later rounds, we’ll examine some players to target and avoid as you navigate your way through your draft.

Brandin Cooks - New England Patriots - Fantasy Football Season Preview Wide Receivers 2017

Old Faces In New Places

Brandin Cooks – New England Patriots

Cooks is coming off back-to-back seasons with at least 1,138 receiving yards and at least eight receiving touchdowns. He has increased his yards per reception in each season of his career, culminating in 15 yards per reception last season. The Saints threw plenty of passes his way as he had 78 receptions on 117 targets last season.

He moves on to the defending champion Patriots this year after being acquired for a first round draft pick. The Patriots are now loaded at wide receiver with Cooks joining the returning cast of Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell. Throw in tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen to go along with running backs who can also catch the ball out of the back field and the result is one scary offense.

While quarterback Tom Brady must be excited about all the talent around him, the move to New England did not helps Cooks fantasy value. Edelman had 98 receptions last season, but the receiver with the next most catches was Hogan with only 38. While Edelman might lose some of his workload to Cooks, it’s hard to imagine Cooks getting the same amount of targets he did in New Orleans. He can still have a valuable season, but don’t expect him to be more than a WR2 this season.

Brandon Marshall – New York Giants

The Giants now have a scary wide receiver trio consisting of Marshall, Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard. While Victor Cruz carried significant name recognition, he didn’t fit well with the Giants scheme last season. Cruz is better suited to play in the slot, a position that was occupied by Shepard the majority of the time.

While Cruz wasn’t able to produce on the outside, that is where Marshall has thrived over the course of his career. He had a down year with the New York Jets last season as he only recorded 59 receptions for 788 yards and three touchdowns. However, it’s no secret that the Jets had some of the worst quarterback play in the league.

One stat that jumps out is that Marshall only had a 46.1 catch percentage last season. That was by far the worst percentage of his career and was more than 10 percent worse than every season outside of his rookie campaign.

Marshall’s fantasy prospects have improved with the Giants as although he is clearly their number two receiver, he should see plenty of red zone targets. The Giants use a lot of three-receiver sets and attempted 598 passes last season, good for eighth most in the NFL.

Marshall hold’s more value in standard leagues than in PPR, but expect him to bounce back and  be in the WR2 discussion with Big Blue.

Allen Robinson - Fantasy Football Season Preview Wide Receivers 2017 - Jacksonville Jaguars

Overrated Players

Allen Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars

Robinson took the fantasy world by storm in 2015 when he had 80 receptions for 1,400 yards and a whopping 14 touchdowns. He averaged 87.5 yards per game and an impressive 17.5 yards per reception. Big things were expected from Robinson again in 2016, making him a selection among the first group of wide receivers taken in most fantasy drafts.

Unfortunately for those who drafted Robinson early, he took a significant step back in 2016. He finished the season with 73 receptions for 883 yards and six touchdowns. His targets were identical in both 2015 and 2016 at 151, but the big difference was his yardage and touchdown totals. Players taken far later than him in most drafts who had more receiving yards last season include Mike Wallace (1,017 yards), Michael Crabtree (1,003 yards)and Rishard Matthews (945 yards).

The main reason for Robinson’s regression was the struggles of quarterback Blake Bortles. Bortles had 35 touchdowns and averaged 12.5 yards per completion in 2015, but only had 23 touchdowns and averaged 10.6 yards per completion in 2016. Things have been so bad for him during the preseason that he could possibly lose the starting job to Chad Henne.

While some owners still remember Robinson’s insane 2015 season and think he could bounce back in a major way this season, I’m not one of them. The struggles at the quarterback position will continue to limit his value, making him a low end WR2 at best. Don’t be surprised is Marshall has a better season than Robinson.

Sammy Watkins – Los Angeles Rams

Watkins got off to a great start to his career, hauling in 65 receptions for 982 yards and six touchdowns in his rookie season in 2014. He followed that up with 60 receptions, 1,047 yards and nine touchdowns while playing in only 13 games in 2015. However, injuries limited him even more in 2016 as he played only eight games. The end result was only 28 receptions, 430 yards and two touchdowns.

The Buffalo Bills have moved on from Watkins, sending him to the Rams as Los Angeles attempts to surround Jared Goff with some talent. Kenny Britt lead the team with 68 receptions for 1,002 yards last season, but he has moved on to the Cleveland Browns. Goff struggled in his seven starts last season, completing only 54.6 percent of his passes and throwing only five touchdowns compared to seven interceptions.

The problem with Watkins from a fantasy perspective is his name still carries more value than his numbers. He has a lot of talent, but injuries have put a major damper on the start of his career. It should not be overlooked that he also had a very solid quarterback with the Bills in Tyrod Taylor. Taylor had a 61.7 percent completion percentage and 17 passing touchdowns compared to only six interceptions in 15 games last year.

When you factor in his injury history and having Goff as his QB, Watkins becomes a risky fantasy option. Let someone else take the risk.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Wide Receivers 2017 - Cameron Meredith - Chicago Bears

Undervalued Players

Cameron Meredith – Chicago Bears

Meredith broke out in 2016 as he hauled in 66 receptions for 888 yards and four touchdowns. He averaged 13.5 yards per reception and caught 68 percent of the passes thrown his way. All this production came in only 14 games as he did not play until Week 3. Meredith finished last season on a high note as he had at least 104 yards in two of his last three games and at least 61 yards in each of his last five games.

The Bears lost Alshon Jeffery to the Philadelphia Eagles this off season, dealing a significant blow to their receiving unit. They did bring in Victor Cruz and Kendall Wright, but neither player is in the same class as Jeffery. Their other main receiver is Kevin White, who can’t seem to stay healthy during his young career. He was limited to only four games last year, recording 19 receptions for 187 yards.

The Bears should also have improved quarterback play this season. They used the trio of Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley last year, which combined for 18 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. This season they signed Mike Glennon away from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and draft Mitchell Trubisky with the second overall pick. Although Glennon is the presumed starter for at least the beginning of the season, you would have to figure either he or Trubisky can’t do much worse than last season’s quarterbacks.

Meredith is going far too late in drafts based on his potential. A 1,000 yard season is not out of the question, making him someone to keep your eye on for the later rounds of your draft.

Willie Snead – New Orleans Saints

Snead is coming off a very solid 2016 campaign as he posted 72 receptions for 895 yards and four touchdowns in only his second season in the NFL. He has had at least 100 targets and averaged at least 12.4 yards per catch in both seasons of his career.

The most significant loss for the Saints this off season was trading Cooks to the Patriots, leaving his 117 targets up for grabs. Some of those targets will be taken by Michael Thomas, but he already had 121 targets and 92 receptions in his rookie campaign last year. They also signed Ted Ginn Jr., but he has never had more than 56 receptions in any season of his career.

Drew Brees continues to put up big numbers as the Saints were first in passing yards, second in completion percentage and tied for second in passing touchdowns in the NFL last year. With Brees showing no signs of slowing down and Cooks gone, this has the makings of a big season for Snead. While he may not be a big contributor in the touchdown department, look for him to reach 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Wide Receivers 2017 - Julio Jones - Atlanta Falcons - Lineuplab

A Look At The Fantasy Playoff Schedule

Another key part of your research is to know who has favorable match ups during the fantasy football playoffs, generally weeks 15 and 16 in most leagues. Let’s dive in and see where you can gain that edge.

Favorable Schedules

Julio Jones – Atlanta Falcons

There is no question that Jones is one of the best wide receivers in the league. He finished last season with 83 receptions, 1,409 yards and six touchdowns in only 14 games. Big things are expected from him again this season and he has great match ups during the fantasy playoffs. Week 15 brings a match up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who he had 12 receptions, 177 yards and two touchdowns against in two games last season. Week 16 brings the Saints who allowed the most passing yards in the league last season. Jones is primed to put up some of his best numbers when it matters the most this year.

Demaryius Thomas – Denver Broncos

Thomas may not have great quarterbacks throwing him the ball, but that didn’t stop him from recording his fifth straight season with at least 1,000 receiving yards last year. He gets an excellent match up in Week 15 against the Indianapolis Colts who allowed the sixth most passing yards and tied for the second fewest interceptions last season. Week 16 isn’t that difficult either as he gets to face the Washington Redskins. The Redskins allowed the eighth most receiving yards and were in the bottom four in completion percentage last year. Look for Thomas to cash in during these two games.

Difficult Schedules

Terrelle Pryor – Washington Redskins

Although big things are expected from Pryor his season, his fantasy playoff schedule is a nightmare. Week 15 brings a contest against the Arizona Cardinals who allowed the fourth fewest passing yards and were tied for the eighth fewest passing touchdowns allowed. Week 16 brings the worst match up of them all against the Broncos as they allowed the fewest passing yards and fewest passing touchdowns last season. If you are lucky enough to make your fantasy playoffs, your hopes better not rest on Pryor or you are bound to be disappointed.

T.Y. Hilton – Indianapolis Colts

While Pryor gets the Broncos in Week 16, Hilton has to face them in Week 15. One more great stat for the Broncos defense is they only allowed 5.8 yards per reception last year. Known for his big play ability, that’s not good news for Hilton. He will play the Baltimore Ravens on the road in Week 16 who allowed the ninth fewest passing yards and tied for the most interceptions in the league last season. Hilton is an elite talent, but his value could be significantly limited in the final two games of the fantasy season.






Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 101 – Season Long

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 101

It’s that time of the year again. That time when you dust off your football jerseys and start getting text messages from your buddies talking about when your league draft day will be. Fantasy Football has become society’s latest epidemic and has become the ultimate way for friends, family, or even strangers to bond. And by bond, I mean to trash talk. Trash talk for four months. That’s if you are winning.

The key to winning is almost entirely linked to a good draft. Drafting can be complicated. There’s nothing worse than when you have your next pick in your queue list and the person before you snags him up before it’s your turn. Good times, good times.

But that’s why I’m writing this draft strategy outline let’s call it. That picture I painted above is going to happen, but it’s the teams that are able to think on their toes that end up making the playoffs and evidently winning a championship. So enough rambling. Let’s get to it.

Dividing the Draft Round

Creating a Ranking System

Creating Rounds/Position Tiers

Splitting the Draft in 3’s

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 101 - Season Strategies via Lineuplab.com

When I approach a draft, I found that dividing the draft rounds into sections is a helpful way to determine what my goal is in that round. I separate rounds into three sections. The Early Section, Meat Section, and the Late Section. Here’s a breakdown of the thought process during each of these sections.

“Early Section” or Rounds 1-5

Naturally, you’d expect the early section to be the most important aspect of your team. And it is to some extent, it is, after all these are supposed to be the best players on your team. But when I pick in the early section I’m not looking for “safe players.” Safe doesn’t win you championships and doesn’t always provide the best value. I look for players who have a high ceiling (meaning they can have a breakout game any given week), but players who also have a high floor (a good amount of base points to account for those weeks they don’t happen to have a breakout week).

Everyone always wants their first round pick to score 3 touchdowns and when they do you’ll likely win the week. But it’s when they don’t is when it that hurts your team’s overall performance. Finding a player with a good balance of high floor and ceiling helps in these early rounds helps you eliminate this problem.

“Meat Section” or Rounds 6-10

The middle aka meat section is where things unravel, but at least in my opinion, this is where leagues are won. Players you thought would be available during this section are no longer available, and players you thought would be gone in this section are magically still on the board. What I look for here is still a high ceiling, but the difference from the early section is that I’m willing to sacrifice the floor of the players.

In this section, we find players like DeSean Jackson or Adrian Peterson who are players that may not give us the greatest consistency but do provide big games upside in certain situations. Now it’s important to note; I’m not giving up on a good floor (base) all entirely. I’m still looking for players who are part of the offensive gameplan and provide real upside to have double-digit games.

“Late Section” or Rounds – 11-16

This is my ‘boom or bust” section. At this point, you already have your starting lineup already drafted and are starting to fill in the bench players. In this section, I sacrifice the necessity of a good floor, meaning I’m solely looking for players with high upside because they could provide a big boost to a team that already has a good balance between floor and ceiling. While there are instances where you’d want to draft a corresponding player that may be injured or suspended to begin the season, this is a good section to pick those players.

One thing I see a lot of fantasy players do wrong is draft players that they think would be best replacements for bye weeks or if one of their starting players gets injured. Those outcomes to me are situations you deal with on a weekly basis, and that’s what the waiver wire is for. But not on draft day. Draft day is about securing a team with the highest possible ceiling while maintaining a solid base for expected points.

*Writer’s Note* Don’t be the team that drafts the Broncos or Stephen Gostkowski before your final two rounds. These positions are interchangeable with the waiver wire, and often the points difference isn’t significant enough to justify passing on a player with good potential.

So now you’ve split the draft and have an idea for what players you are expecting. Now let’s put it all together and build a ranking system.

Creating a Ranking System

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 101 - Season Strategies via Lineuplab.com - Ranking System - Le'Veon Bell - David Johnson

There are several ways you can go about drafting a fantasy football team. One,  you can prepare your butt off so that you know team depth charts like the back of your hand. Two follow whatever site rankings that are defaulted when you sit in front of your computer. Or Three you could not prepare at all and just let auto pick choose the top guy available.

If you’re not one of those guys who could set his team on auto pick and still make the playoff,  I’d recommend approaching your fantasy football draft is a mixture of 1 and 2. Not everyone has the time to read every team preview and memorize each team’s depth chart, so we need to find a way to be more efficient with our time. Here’s how I start.

The biggest thing that will help you build a solid core to your team is creating your own rankings. Whatever site you use whether it’s ESPN, Yahoo, CBS Sports, or even NFL, DON”T rely on whatever is automated in your draft room. Most casual fantasy players draft based on the default rankings in the draft room, by following them you limit yourself to finding players with greater value.

If you’re not comfortable creating your own rankings from scratch, take some time to look at other analyst rankings. Find two or three that you agree with and average the player’s rankings out. By doing that you’ll not only have expert type guidance, but you’ll be customizing it so that you have the final say on creating YOUR team based on YOUR rankings.

You’ll see a lot of Top 50 or Top 100 rankings. Here’s where the customization of your league comes to play. If you’re playing in a 10 team league, you don’t need to rank more than the top 50 players. If you’re playing in a 12 team league, that’s when you’d want to stretch the rankings to a top 60. The reason for this is you want to have coverage on players you like for at least the first 5 rounds.

Once you have your own “consensus” rankings, you’re ready to draft. Now here’s the key. No matter where you are slotted to be drafting, the key here is staying committed to your rankings.

By staying committed to your rankings, you’re finding players that you value more than others and have more control of your team.

Let’s say your heart was set on drafting a running back in the first round, but you have the fifth pick, and both David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are gone. That doesn’t mean you should force your way to draft LeSean McCoy when receivers like Mike Evans or A.J. Green, who offer better value are likely still available. At least according to my board.

A big reason to keep following your rankings is so that you don’t reach for players in a draft position that they are not worth (according to your rankings). If the player you think you want to select is not the first player on your rankings list, chances are you’re reaching for that player and passing up on a player with better value.

Follow your rankings list to the core for at least the first 3 rounds. After the first three rounds, you evaluate your team. You could be looking at a situation where you drafted three straight wide receivers. That’s not necessarily a bad thing this year when you consider that running backs ranked from 5-14 all have question marks, but at some point you need to draft running backs.

If you find yourself in this situation, use your rankings to find the best available non-wide receiver position player available. You want to make sure you have a decent balance but aren’t forcing picks that make you end up losing value.

A good way I found that’s helpful in keeping my roster balance in the first 5 rounds is creating round tiers. What that means is your labeling the players on your rankings into positional order.

Draft Tiers

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 101 - Season Strategies via Lineuplab.com - Antonio Brown - Odell Beckham Jr.

Create tiers based on your league size and by round. Say you play in a 12 team league you’d want to have 12 players in your first tier, second, and so on and so forth. This helps you visualize what round you would expect your top 60 players to go. So for a 60-player rankings you will have 5 tiers.

Once you have the over players tiers, then you separate the tiers by positions. If you noticed 6 running backs were in the first 12 players (tier 1) then you would classify those 6 running backs as RB Tier 1. You may notice that you don’t have any tight ends or quarterbacks expected to go in the first round and this is when you place value into the tiers.

Say I have 6 running backs and 6 receivers going in the first round. That would mean my first tier of wide receivers and running backs would be valued in the 1st round. You continue to do these positional tiers until you have 12 players from the same position in that tier. Then you check what’s that last player’s projected round and place value on the tier.

WR Tier 1

  1. A. Brown
  2. J. Jones
  3. O. Beckham Jr.
  4. M. Evans
  5. A. Green
  6. J. Nelson
  7. M. Thomas
  8. D. Bryant
  9. T. Hilton
  10. B. Cooks
  11. A. Cooper
  12. D. Baldwin

Starting with my top receiver to my 12th this tier should last me up until round 3, meaning this tier would be “WR Tier 1-3.” What this is saying is that I would be willing to draft anyone of these receivers within as long as it’s round 3. If anyone of these players should be available in round 4 I’ve found tremendous value.

Now you can choose to create tiers the way I do, or you can choose to create tiers based on players you would draft in that round. For example, if I’d break that tier down into rounds it would sort out like this.

WR Tier 1 Round

  1. A. Brown
  2. J. Jones
  3. O. Beckham Jr.
  4. M. Evans
  5. A. Green

WR Tier 2 Round

  1. J. Nelson
  2. M. Thomas
  3. D. Bryant
  4. T. Hilton

WR Tier 3 Round

  1. B. Cooks
  2. A. Cooper
  3. D. Baldwin

The problem I have with this is that I’m leaving out other players that I would consider drafting at the end of the 3rd round. There are receivers I would consider drafting in the 3rd round, but they didn’t make the top 12 of the position. That’s why I choose to sort it out based on teams and put the round value based on where that tier starts and ends.

Bring it All Home

I know that was a lot of information to take in so I thought I’d leave you with some nuggets at the end.

  • Divide your draft into separate parts to place value on the rounds/players you pick.
  • Create your own Top 50/60 ranking to cover your first 5 rounds.
  • Divide your Top 50/60 rankings into positional Tiers to help you view the value of the round you are picking them in.
  • Do not lock into any specific position in the first round. Follow your rankings and after 3 rounds evaluate how balanced (position wise) your team is.

Extra Point

Just because the top guy in your positional tier gets drafted doesn’t mean you need to rush into drafting the next guy on the board (i.e., Gronkowski gets picked there’s no need for you to rush to draft a tight end).

For my next article, I’ll cover a specific strategy for when to draft Quarterbacks and Tight Ends. I’ll give you my opinion on where to draft Ezekiel Elliott and other promising rookie running backs. As well as dive into pick strategies for first three rounds.

 

Fantasy Football Season Preview: Running Backs 2017

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

**Mike Barner**

Fantasy Football Season Preview Running Backs 2017

The long journey through the NFL season is rapidly approaching, meaning it’s one of the most exciting times of the year: drafting your fantasy football team. While you need your players to stay healthy and have a little luck go your way, having a strong draft can go a long way to determining the fate of your season.

Lineup Lab is here to help you come away a winner. In the second of our season previews, we’ll break down the running back position. Wide Receivers have been the darlings of fantasy drafts in recent years, but the running back position is making a claim to dominate the first few spots in many drafts this season. Even in leagues where PPR scoring would appear to favor the receivers, running backs who can also catch passes out of the backfield can carry tremendous value.

Whether you want to draft elite running backs early or select a sleeper or two in the later rounds, we’ll examine some players to target and avoid as you navigate your way through your draft.

Adrian Peterson - Fantasy Football Season Preview Running Backs 2017 - New Orleans Saints - Lineup Lab

Old Faces In New Places

Adrian Peterson – New Orleans Saints

Peterson joins the Saints after spending a decade with the Minnesota Vikings. To say he posted some impressive stats with the Vikings is an understatement. He rushed for at least 1,266 yards and scored at least ten rushing touchdowns in each season where he played in at least 14 games. His best season was in 2012 when he had 2,097 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, 217 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown.

Peterson has seen his career take a turn for the worse due to injury as he has played three games or less in two of the last three seasons. He only played three games in 2016, rushing a meager 37 times for 72 yards total while failing to reach the end zone.

While he was the undisputed number one back in Minnesota, he doesn’t have a clear path for a significant workload with the Saints. He joins a backfield that already has talented hold over Mark Ingram. Ingram had the best season of his career last year as he had 1,043 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns, 319 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns. The Saints also drafted Alvin Kamara in the third round, adding further talent to their squad.

It’s highly unlikely that Peterson is going to match his significant production years because not only will he be sharing the workload, but he’s not the same physically that he once was. That being said, he could still provide touchdowns as their power back when they get towards the goal line. Best case scenario for him from a fantasy perspective though is probably to finish as a low-end RB2.

Marshawn Lynch – Oakland Raiders

Lynch returns to the NFL after a brief one-year retirement. He had an excellent stretch from 2011 through 2014 with the Seattle Seahawks where he rushed for at least 1,200 yards and scored at least 11 rushing touchdowns in each season. Known for being a power runner, he’s no slouch in the passing game either as he has recorded at least 300 receiving yards three times in his career.

The 2015 season was a struggle for Lynch as he was limited to only seven games due to injury. He only averaged 3.8 yards per carry, his lowest average since 2010. While he decided to retire after that season, he couldn’t resist coming back to play in his hometown for the Raiders this season.

Due to his style of play, the year off may actually benefit Lynch. He also has the benefit of playing behind a very good offensive line. The Raiders finished sixth in the NFL last season with 1,922 rushing yards as a team and tied for sixth in rushing touchdowns with 17. Throw in talented offensive players like quarterback Derek Carr and wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and you get a potentially potent offense.

Lynch will have to share some of the workload with DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard, but he is still going to get the majority of the carries. It would not be surprising if he finishes the season with close to 1,000 rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Running Backs 2017 - Spencer Ware - Kansas City Chiefs - Lineup Lab

Overrated Players

Spencer Ware – Kansas City Chiefs

Ware showed plenty of promise in 2015 in limited action as he averaged 5.6 yards per carry and scored six rushing touchdowns on only 72 rushing attempts. Jamaal Charles was limited to only three games and 12 carries in 2016, opening the door for Ware to become the feature back in Kansas City.

Ware’s overall 2016 stats are impressive as he recorded 921 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, 447 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. He finished with averages of 4.3 yards per carry and 13.5 yards per reception.

A closer look at his numbers though show that he did most of his damage in the beginning of the season, then tailed off dramatically. In the first five games of the season, he averaged at least 5.5 yards per carry in four games and had two of his three rushing touchdowns for the season. Over the last eight games he played for the season, he failed to rush for more than 69 yards in any game and finished with an average of 3.8 yards per carry or less in five of the final six games.

While he enters this season as the starting running back, his work load is expected to be threatened by rookie Kareem Hunt, who should at least take away some opportunities in the passing game. Hunt rushed for 1,475 yards and had 403 receiving yards in college last season, showing he can be a dual-threat in the backfield. Ware can still provide valuable fantasy contributions, but don’t expect him to be anything more than a low-end RB2. If you are playing in a PPR format, Hunt’s presence creates an even bigger threat to Ware’s value.

Paul Perkins – New York Giants

Perkins had a solid rookie campaign for the Giants as he rushed for 456 yards and averaged 4.2 yards per carry. He also contributed to the passing attack with 15 receptions and 162 receiving yards. He is expected to be the starting running back this season after the Giants moved on from Rashad Jennings.

Perkins is a trendy pick to have a breakout campaign this season, but I’m not buying it. He had 127 total touches last season, but failed to reach the end zone even once. The Giants offensive line was terrible last season as the team only averaged 3.5 yards per carry, good for third worst in the NFL. They did nothing to improve the line heading into this season either, so there isn’t much reason to believe they will be any better.

The Giants are a pass heavy team as they will likely throw the ball as much (if not more) this season since they brought in both Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram during the off season. It’s also important to remember that Shane Vereen missed most of last season due to injury. He’s going to play a lot when the Giants are looking to throw the ball and he had 59 receptions on 81 targets when he was last healthy for them in 2015.

While it’s going to be hard for Perkins to not at least record a few touchdowns this season, don’t believe the hype. I would not want him to be one of the starting running backs on my fantasy squad.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Running Backs 2017 - LaGarrette Blount - Lineuplab - Philadelphia Eagles

Undervalued Players

LeGarrette Blount – Philadelphia Eagles

Blount is coming off of the best season of his career as he had 1,161 rushing yards and a whopping 18 rushing touchdowns for the New England Patriots last year. To put that into perspective, he had a total of 18 rushing touchdowns in his previous three seasons combined.

Blount is now a member of the Eagles and could thrive yet again. Don’t worry about him not being involved in the passing game because of Darren Sproles as Blount has never caught more than 15 passes in a season anyways. Ryan Mathews played the same role last season that Blount will this year. He came away with 8 touchdowns and 661 yards in only 13 games last year.

The Eagles are going to be much improved offensively this season with quarterback Carson Wentz entering his second season and adding receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, meaning Blount could have plenty of red zone opportunities. He’s not going to score 18 touchdowns again, but I don’t think 10 touchdowns and 750 yards is out of the question. That’s a valuable contributor that can be had in the middle rounds of many drafts.

Samaje Perine – Washington Redskins

Perine had an excellent college career with Oklahoma as he rushed for at least 1,060 yards and had at least 12 rushing touchdowns in all three seasons. While those numbers are great, his 6.0 yards per carry average over those three seasons is exceptional.

He joins a Redskins offense that was known as more of a passing unit last season as only five other teams had fewer rushing attempts. Rob Kelley was their most prominent running back, finishing with 704 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. Although the Redskins didn’t run much, their average of 4.5 yards per carry was good for ninth best in the NFL.

While Kelley is the projected starter this season, don’t be surprised if Perine passes him at some point. Kelley showed flashes last season, but had 37 rushing yards or less in three of his last six games. You have to take some chances and hit on some late-round picks to have a real shot at winning your league. I think Perine is one of those late-round players who could provide a nice return on investment.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Running Backs 2017 - Jordan Howard - Chicago Bears - Lineuplab

A Look At The Fantasy Playoff Schedule

Another key part of your research is to know who has favorable match ups during the fantasy football playoffs, generally weeks 15 and 16 in most leagues. Let’s dive in and see where you can gain that edge.

Favorable Schedules

Jordan Howard – Chicago Bears

Howard has one of the best fantasy playoff schedules as he gets to face the Detroit Lions on the road in Week 15 and the Cleveland Browns at home in Week 16. Although the Lions only allowed eight rushing touchdowns last season, they did allow an average of 4.4 yards per carry. Howard played well against them last year, rushing for 197 yards total in two games. The Browns were terrible against the run last season as only three times had a higher average than their 4.6 yards per carry allowed. They also allowed 18 rushing touchdowns, a total surpassed by only five other teams. Howard is a great fantasy option on the season overall, but he could really cash in during the playoffs.

Jay Ajayi – Miami Dolphins

Ajayi had a breakout season in 2016 and could be in for an even bigger role in the offense this season with Ryan Tannehill out for the year. He gets to face the Buffalo Bills in Week 15, a team that allowed the fourth most rushing yards and second most rushing touchdowns last season. Week 16 brings a match up with the Chiefs who allowed 121.1 rushing yards per game last season, good for seventh most in the NFL.  Expect big things from Ajayi when it matters the most.

Difficult Schedules

Todd Gurley – Los Angeles Rams

Gurley faces an extremely difficult task in Week 15 as he squares off against the Seattle Seahawks on the road. The Seahawks allowed only 3.4 yards per carry last season, which was the best in the NFL. Gurley did not perform well against them last year either as he rushed for only 89 yards against them in two games combined. Week 16 is no cake walk either as he will take on the Tennessee Titans, a team who actually allowed less rushing yards than the Seahawks did.

Carlos Hyde – San Francisco 49ers

Hyde also has the dubious task of facing the Titans as they take on the 49ers in Week 15. Not only did the Titans not allow many rushing yards, but their 10 rushing touchdowns allowed was tied for fifth best in the league. It doesn’t get much easier for Hyde and the 49ers in Week 16 as they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who only allowed an average of 3.8 yards per carry last season. Taking into consideration Hyde’s injury history, this fantasy playoff schedule doesn’t do his fantasy value any favors either.

Fantasy Football Season Preview: Quarterbacks

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

**Mike Barner**

The long journey through the NFL season is rapidly approaching, meaning it’s one of the most exciting times of the year: drafting your fantasy football team. While you need your players to stay healthy and have a little luck go your way, having a strong draft can go a long way to determining the fate of your season.

Lineup Lab is here to help you come away a winner. In the first of our season previews, we’ll break down the quarterback position. While it’s the most important position in the NFL, it’s not necessarily the most important position in fantasy football. If you don’t get one of the elite signal callers, a sound strategy is to wait until later in the draft as there is plenty of depth at the position.

Whether you want to swing for the fences and take your quarterback early or wait for a sleeper in the later rounds, we’ll examine some players to target and avoid as you navigate your way through your draft.

Fantasy Football Season Preview - Mike Glennon - Chicago Bears - Lineup Lab

Old Faces In New Places

Mike Glennon – Chicago Bears

Glennon joins the Bears after spending the first four seasons of his career with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With Jameis Winston at the helm, it was an easy decision for the Bucs to let Glennon leave in free agency. Glennon started 13 games during his rookie season in 2013 and posted a 59.4% completion percentage to go with 2,608 yards, 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He started five games in 2014, but has only appeared in two games the last two seasons.

Although Glennon signed a three-year deal with the Bears, they could get out of the deal after this season. It appears that could be a likely scenario as they just drafted Mitchell Trubisky with the second overall pick.

Glennon doesn’t have the best weapons around him to succeed this season. While Jordan Howard is an excellent running back, his receiving core leaves a lot to be desired. The Bears lost Alshon Jeffery to the Philadephia Eagles, which is a significant blow to the team. Although they brought in a big name in Victor Cruz, he is a much different player than Jeffery and his best days appear to be behind him.

That leaves Glennon’s top wideouts as the combination of Kevin White and Cameron Meredith. White was limited to four games last season and only averaged 46.8 yards in those games. Meredith had a breakout campaign in 2016 as he had 66 receptions, 888 yards and four touchdowns. Glennon has a solid tight end in Zach Miller to pair with White and Meredith, but none of the three players are elite targets.

Stay away from Glennon as not only does he have limited weapons, but there is a chance he could end up on the bench in favor of Trubisky at some point during the season.

Jay Cutler – Miami Dolphins

Cutler was ready to begin his career as a broadcaster until the Dolphins lost Ryan Tannehill for the season with a knee injury. Cutler was limited to only five games due to injury himself last season, but was struggling even when healthy as he had four touchdowns, five interceptions and a 33.2 QBR for the season. He had some strong campaigns early in his career, but has thrown for less than 20 touchdowns in four of his last six seasons.

Unlike Glennon, Cutler actually has some weapons in wide receivers Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. Although Landry only has eight total touchdowns in the last two seasons, he did record at least 94 receptions and 1,136 yards in both years. The Dolphins also brought in Julius Thomas at tight end, hoping to revive his career after two terrible seasons with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Even with his struggles though, he did have nine total touchdowns in Jacksonville.

The Dolphins should be a run heavy offense behind Jay Ajayi, but Cutler has never been known to be a game manager. Even with several talented offensive players around him, Cutler is no longer a valuable fantasy option outside of two quarterback leagues.

Fantasy Football Season Preview - Russell Wilson - Seattle Seahawks - Lineuplab

Overrated Players

Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks

Don’t get me wrong, Wilson has put up some big numbers in his career. He finished 2016 with a career-high 4,219 passing yards to go along with 21 passing touchdowns, 259 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. Durability is a big part of his value as he has yet to miss a game in his career. He has also thrown nine interceptions or less in three of his five seasons in the league.

With that being said, he’s going too high in drafts. Last season, he finished 10th in the NFL in passing yards, 12th in passing yards per game and 17th in passing touchdowns. While he can add value in the running game, he only finished ninth in total rushing yards for a quarterback. To put that into perspective, he only had 52 more rushing yards and actually one less rushing touchdown than Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Wilson is likely to be picked among the top five quarterbacks in many leagues, but his production doesn’t match that price. You’d be better off waiting a few rounds and picking up someone like Marcus Mariota of the Tennessee Titans or Jameis Winston of the Bucs as they could approach (if not exceed) Wilson’s production.

Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger has put up some monster numbers in his career. He went through a stretch from 2009 through 2014 where he threw for at least 4,000 yards four times and averaged 25 passing touchdowns per season. The best season of his career was in 2014 when he threw for 4,952 yards to go along with 32 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. That’s elite production.

Big Ben also has elite weapons around him, led by Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. Brown has at least 106 receptions and 1,284 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons while Bell is one of the premier pass catching running backs in the league.

However, Roethlisberger has regressed the last two seasons, mainly because of injuries. He appeared in 12 games in 2015 and 14 games in 2016. Even in games when he does take the field, he seems to be dealing with nagging injuries more often than not.

Another area of concern is his crazy home and road splits. In home games last season, Roethlisberger averaged 319 passing yards per game and posted 20 touchdowns to only five interceptions. On the road, he only averaged 238 passing yards per game while recording nine passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. When you look at his touchdowns and interceptions, it’s even more staggering when you consider he played eight road games last year and only six home games.

Is this a one-year fluke you ask? No, it’s certainly not. Although his passing yards per game were much closer (348 at home compared to 308 on the road) in 2015, his totals were still way off as he had 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions at home compared to only five touchdowns and nine interceptions on the road.

There is limited value in a quarterback who you can only start with confidence in half of his games. Let someone else take the risk.

Fantasy Football Season Preview - Jameis Winston - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Lineuplab

Undervalued Players

Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Winston has had success in his young career as he has surpassed at least 4,000 passing yards in both seasons in the NFL. He has 50 touchdowns and 33 interceptions total while not missing a game so far.

Last season he threw for 4,090 yards, 28 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. His passing stats are impressive when you consider outside of star receiver Mike Evans, the offense was lacking talent. Evans had 96 receptions for 1,321 yards. The next highest totals were both posted by tight end Cameron Brate, who logged 57 receptions for 660 yards.

The Bucs have added some serious talent to their offense this season by bringing in wide receiver DeSean Jackson and drafting tight end O.J Howard. Jackson adds much-needed speed and has averaged at least 17.6 yards per catch in each of the last three seasons. Howard can help create some difficult match ups when paired with Brate on the field while also providing solid blocking.

This season is shaping up to be another big campaign for Winston. If you prefer to wait on a quarterback, Winston can be drafted long after the elite options are off the board, but could still post a top-10 season.

Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles

Wentz had a respectable rookie season, throwing for 3,782 yards to go along with 16 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He also added 150 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. While none of these numbers are eye-popping, take into consideration the talent he had around him. The team leader in both receptions (78) and receiving yards (816) was tight end Zach Ertz. Of their top four leaders in receptions, two were tight ends, one was a running back and only one was a wide receiver.

Although the Eagles traded away Jordan Matthews, they made significant upgrades at wide receiver by bringing in both Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. Despite playing only 12 games last season, Jeffery still had more receiving yards (821) than anyone on the Eagles last year. Smith may not haul in a ton of catches, but he has averaged at least 16.8 yards per catch in four of his six seasons in the NFL.

With Ertz returning as well, Wentz has three legitimate options to throw to this season. The schedule also appears to be in Wentz’s favor this season as six of the Eagles 16 games come against teams who finished in the bottom nine of the NFL with regards to passing yards allowed last season. They also face only two teams who finished in the top five in passing yards allowed last season.

While he can be had in the later rounds of most drafts, Wentz has the potential to put up top-15 numbers at quarterback this season.

Fantasy Football Season Preview - Matt Ryan - Atlanta Falcons - Lineuplab

A Look At The Fantasy Playoff Schedule

Another key part of your research is to know who has favorable match ups during the fantasy football playoffs, generally weeks 15 and 16 in most leagues. Let’s dive in and see where you can gain that edge.

Favorable Schedules

Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons

Ryan has two road match ups in weeks 15 and 16, but they come against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Week 15) and the New Orleans Saints (Week 16). The Saints allowed the most passing yards in the NFL last season while the Bucs were one of 11 teams in the league to allow at least 4,000 passing yards. If you can make it to the playoffs, Ryan could help push you to a title.

Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens

Flacco also has an advantage in the fantasy playoffs as he faces the Cleveland Browns on the road in Week 15 and the Indianapolis Colts at home in Week 16. The Browns allowed 36 passing touchdowns last season, the most in the NFL. The Colts allowed 27 passing touchdowns of their own while also giving up 4,200 passing yards, which was good for sixth most in the league. You don’t want Flacco to be your starting QB for the entire season, but keep an eye on him when injuries mount at the end of the season and he gets this favorable schedule.

Difficult Schedules

Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts

Luck faces tough opponents as he gets the Denver Broncos at home in Week 15 and the Baltimore Ravens on the road in Week 16. The Broncos had the best pass defense in the NFL last season. They allowed a league-low 2,972 passing yards and had more interceptions (14) than passing touchdowns allowed (13). The Ravens were no slouch either as they tied for the league lead in interceptions (18) and finished in the top-nine in passing yards allowed. Luck could be in for some disappointing performances when it matters the most.

Kirk Cousins – Washington Redskins

Cousins is a trendy pick this season to outproduce his draft spot. While he might have a good season overall, the fantasy playoffs will be no picnic. Both games are at home, but he has to play the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15 and the Broncos in Week 16. I already detailed how deadly the Broncos’ defense is, but the Cardinals are very tough as well. They limited the opposition to only 210 passing yards per game and 21 touchdowns last season, both in the top-10 in the league. Of all the tough fantasy playoff schedules, Cousins may have the toughest.