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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/4/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
May special! Use Code PAMLB30 at checkout

Monday brings an extremely light slate with only five games, four of which make up the main evening contests in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/4/18

Nick Tropeano vs. Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $8,300

Tropeano missed the 2017 season after having Tommy John surgery and hasn’t made more than 13 starts in a season during his career. He’s been able to make eight starts so far this year, posting a 3.80 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. His 4.91 FIP and 1.6 HR/9 are a bit concerning, especially if you own him in season-long fantasy. This sets up to be a favorable matchup against the Royals, though, who struggle against right-handed pitching. They have a .749 OPS against lefties, but only a .692 OPS against righties. With no elite aces taking the mound, Tropeano has the potential to provide value.

Julio Teheran vs. San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $7,600
DraftKings = $9,800

Teheran had a subpar year for the Braves in 2017, finishing with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. A lot of that had to do with his troubles pitching in the new SunTrust Park as he had a 5.86 ERA there compared to a 3.14 ERA on the road. He has experienced similar results this year with a 4.91 ERA at home and a 3.18 ERA on the road. That’s good news Monday considering this game is in Petco Park, especially when you add in the fact that the Padres have the third-lowest OPS against righties (.652) in baseball.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/4/18

Greg Bird vs. Mike Fiers, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,000

The Yankees and Tigers are playing a doubleheader Monday, so not all of their regulars might play in the night portion. If Bird takes the field for the Yankees, he’s definitely someone to consider for your entry. After failing to record a hit in his first game of the season, he has logged at least one in five straight games. He’s shown power a well with a home run and two doubles. Fiers has allowed a .367 wOBA against lefties this season.

John Ryan Murphy vs. Derek Holland, San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $3,700

Murphy showed some promise early in his career as the backup catcher for the Yankees, but he didn’t play much in the majors the last two seasons. He’s only played 34 games this year, but he has already set career highs with eight home runs and 17 RBI. Five of his eight home runs have come in the last eight games. Murphy won’t be able to keep this pace up, but it’s worth trying to ride his hot bat Monday against the struggling Holland.

Others to consider: Buster Posey (catcher) and Albert Pujols (first base)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/4/18

Joe Panik vs. Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $3,000

Panik was carrying the Giants offense earlier this season before landing on the DL with a thumb injury. He has picked up right where he left off, hitting 6-for-11 in the three games since he has returned. Godley has pretty even splits against lefties and righties in his career, but he’s allowing way too many baserunners with a 1.54 WHIP this season. Panik won’t cost much either, making him viable option to consider.

Ian Kinsler vs. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $3,900

Kinsler is finally starting to show signs of life, hitting 12-for-28 (.429) in his last seven games. He’s provided plenty of power during that stretch as well with three home runs and three doubles. He still only has a .215 BABIP, leaving him with plenty of room to continue to improve his batting average. Duffy has pitched better his last two starts, but he has allowed a .393 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Look for Kinsler to continue his hot hitting Monday.

Others to consider: Ozzie Albies and Gleyber Torres

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/4/18

Jeimer Candelario vs. Domingo German, New York Yankees
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $3,900

The Tigers are at the start of what could be a lengthy rebuilding process, but they may have found their third baseman of the future with Candelario. After batting .330 with two home runs in 27 games with the Tigers at the end of last year, he is off to a great start by hitting .276 with nine home runs and 13 doubles. His .370 OBP percentage is impressive as well. German has had his moments filling in for the injured Jordan Montgomery (elbow) but has generally struggled with a 5.45 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. If Candelario is indeed in the lineup for the nightcap, he is an excellent option to consider.

Miguel Andujar vs. Mike Fiers, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $4,100

Speaking of promising young third baseman, Andujar is making a case to be locked in at the hot corner for the Yankees for years to come. Not only is he batting .294, but his six home runs and 18 doubles have led to an impressive .517 slugging percentage. Don’t be worried that he doesn’t get the righty/lefty split advantage here because he is actually hitting better against righties with a .376 wOBA.

Others to consider: Zack Cozart

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/4/18

Didi Gregorius vs. Mike Fiers, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $4,300

Gregorius couldn’t have been much worse in May, batting .151 with one home run. He was hitting .327 with 10 home runs before the month began, providing fantasy owners with two extreme swings in production. He’s showing signs of coming out of his funk now, hitting 8-for-22 (.364) across his last five games. He has a .349 wOBA against righties this year even after his massive slump, leaving him with a favorable matchup against Fiers.

Dansby Swanson vs. Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $2,800
DragyKings = $3,500

Swanson only hit six homers in 144 games for the Braves last year, but he’s already up to five this season with two of them coming in his last three games. He never hit more than nine home runs in a season in the minors, but he could hit double-digit homers if he can stay healthy. He’s a cheap option to target against lefties as well since his career wOBA is 37 points higher against them than it is against righties.

Others to consider: Andrelton Simmons and Brandon Crawford

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/4/18

Mike Trout vs. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $5,500
DraftKings = $6,000

Trout is a great choice most nights, but with so few games Monday leaving fewer high-end options than normal, he stands out from the crowd. His numbers are great across the board, but he also has a lofty 220 wRC+ against lefties this year. Pay up to get him into your lineup.

Justin Upton vs. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,000

Upton is still hitting for power with 12 home runs, but his .235 average is certainly disappointing. His .284 BABIP is 42 points below his career mark, so he could make gains with his average as the season wears on. He generally hits lefties well and has had excellent success against Duffy in his career, hitting 6-for-17 (.353) with two home runs and two doubles.

Leonys Martin vs. Domingo German, New York Yankees
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $3,700

Martin was horrid splitting time between the Mariners and Cubs last year, hitting only .172 with a .281 slugging percentage. He was dragged down by a .207 BABIP that was almost 100 points lower than his career mark. His BABIP is much more reasonable at .291 this year, resulting in a .257 average. He’s hit for power too with seven home runs and 10 doubles. With a .377 wOBA against righties, Martin is a cheap option with upside.

Others to consider: Aaron Judge and Nicholas Castellanos

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 11

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
June special! Use Code PAMLB30 at checkout

If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 11

Luis Severino, New York Yankees: at DET, at NYM

The Yankees potent lineup gets the majority of the headlines, but Severino is just as important as anyone on the team. He put together a breakout campaign in 2017, finishing with a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a 10.7 K/9. He’s been even better through his first 12 starts this year with a 2.31 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and a 10.6 K/9. His average fastball velocity is 98.2 mph and he has thrown a first-pitch strike to an impressive 70.1% of the batters that he has faced. The Mets are tied for the fourth-fewest runs scored (230) in baseball and the Tigers lineup has been middle of the pack, leaving Severino with the potential for an extremely valuable week.

Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals: vs. MIA, at CIN

Martinez has not pitched in almost a month due to a strained lat, but he will be activated from the disabled list Tuesday. He had a sparkling 1.62 ERA before the injury, but his 3.35 FIP and .237 opponents BABIP indicate he has been a bit lucky. The FIP is still good, though, and he’s only allowed one home run in 50 innings. His first start of the week comes against a Marlins team that has scored the fewest runs (196) in baseball. The Reds are certainly better offensively, but Martinez has already faced them twice this year, throwing 13 scoreless innings while recording 18 strikeouts. Get him right back into your lineup.

Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs: vs. PHI, vs. PIT

Hendricks isn’t a big strikeout pitcher with a 7.6 K/9 for his career. He doesn’t walk many hitters and does a good job keeping runners off base in general, which has helped him quietly become a very successful pitcher. He’s off to another good start this year with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He doesn’t get hit hard often, allowing more than three earned runs in a game only one time this season. The Phillies are in the bottom-third of the league in runs scored and while the Pirates have scored more runs, Hendricks has held them to four runs in 11 innings in their first two meetings this year.

Nick Tropeano, Los Angeles Angels: vs. KC, at MIN

Tropeano missed the entire 2017 season after having Tommy John surgery and hasn’t made more than 13 starts in a season during his career. He’s been able to make eight starts so far this year, posting a 3.80 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. His 4.91 FIP and 1.6 HR/9 are a bit concerning, limiting his upside over the course of the season. This is setting up to be a nice week for him, though, against the Royals and Twins as neither team scores a ton of runs. He has already faced both teams once this season, throwing 6.2 scoreless innings and recording six strikeouts against the Royals while allowing three runs to go along with two strikeouts in six innings against the Twins. Tropeano is still available in 82% of Yahoo! leagues and is a viable streaming option.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 11

Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks: at SF, at COL

Godley isn’t off to a great start with a 4.38 ERA and a 4.44 FIP through 11 outings. His success last year was in large part due to his 1.14 WHIP, which has ballooned to 1.54 this year. His .316 BABIP allowed isn’t much higher than his career mark, which is not good news for his value moving forward. His first matchup this week against the Giants is not bad, but his second outing in Coors Field could be a nightmare. That game alone is a reason to keep him on your bench in Week 11.

Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres: vs. ATL, at MIA

It’s been another underwhelming season for Richard, who has a 4.74 ERA and a 4.14 FIP in 12 starts. His 1.31 WHIP isn’t terrible, but he has very little strikeout upside with a 5.9 K/9 for his career. His second start this week against the Marlins is a great matchup, but don’t get too excited about him as a streaming option. The Braves are not only tied for the fourth-most runs scored (293) in baseball, but they also have the highest OPS against lefties (.806). Since he likely won’t provide a lot of strikeouts even in his start against the Marlins, it might be best to avoid him altogether.

Jason Vargas, New York Mets: vs. BAL, vs. NYY

Vargas won a career-high 18 games for the Royals last year and made the All-Star team for the first time. He moved to the Mets in the offseason but he has been limited to six starts due to injury. He was hammered in his first three outings but hasn’t given up a run in two of his last three starts. One of those came against the Braves, which is particularly impressive considering their success against lefties. Even with his recent success, you still want to stay away from streaming him this week. The Orioles aren’t exactly imposing, but the Yankees have the second-highest OPS against lefties (.799) and can still do a ton of damage even without the luxury of having the DH playing at Citi Field.