Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 13
Week 13 is upon us and brings one of the toughest Draftkings slate of this season. There are four quarterback changes this week. Jay Cutler and Jameis Winston are returning from injury, while Jimmy Garoppolo and Geno Smith are getting their first starts of the season. This is a widely spread out slate, which means I expect ownership to be spread out across the positions.
Vegas:
Since Vegas lines have become such a huge part of the DFS community and are where most DFS players start their research, I decided to write up a portion outlining the big Vegas numbers. All Vegas totals will be taken from Fantasy Labs Vegas page on Wednesday.
This week there are no games with an over under above 50. There are four games bunched together with a total of over 47. Pats @ Bills 48.5, Panthers @ Saints 48, Eagles @ Seahawks 47.5, and Vikings @ Falcons 47. Aside from those four games, there are another four games with respectable totals between 44 and 46 points.
The teams with the highest implied total are the Patriots (28.5), Chargers (28.25), Saints (26), Rams (26), Raiders (25.75), Titans (25.25), Jags (25.5), and Falcons (25). There are a few games at risk of being a blowout and the Chargers headline the list as a two-touchdown favorite at home against the winless Browns. The Jags are the second largest favorite (-10) at home against the Colts. The Raiders (-9.5), Patriots (-8.5), Titans (-7), and the Rams (-7) are also a touchdown favorite. It’s worth targeting running backs at home as big favorites this week.
I encourage you to check out Vegas Insiders page on Sunday morning to see if there are any drastic changes to these game totals. Of course, Lineup Labs subs have access to this information in the player pool. Let’s dive into the slate.
Quarterbacks
Philip Rivers (DK $7,000) – As I mentioned at the top of this article, ownership is going to be widely spread out, especially at the quarterback position. Of all the quarterbacks on the DK main slate, Rivers may be the most popular for cash games. He’s a two-touchdown favorite with a team implied to score the second-most points on the slate against a Browns team that rank 28th in aFPA. Rivers is coming off back to back good games, in which he met his salary expectation, but that was back when his salary was below $6,000. Now he’s seen a price jump of $2,100 and is a risk for a negative game script. On the bright side, the Chargers play distribution is 59% pass to 41% run, so there’s a good possibility if the Chargers do score 28 points, Rivers will be in a position to rack up all those points. It’s always worth noting when teams are two-touchdown favorites that If they get up to a big league, they could lean heavily on the running game to kill the clock.
Jameis Winston (DK $5,600) – I will be watching Winston’s ownership very closely up until lock time. Winston returned to practice on Wednesday and was announced as the starter. That news suddenly led to move the Bucs to a 1 ½ point favorite on the road against the Packers. The Packers rank 30th in aFPA and were just ripped apart by the Steelers and Big Ben who projects very similar to Winston. The Bucs have a relatively low team total of 22, but they have had no running game all season long, which has led to the second most distribution of pass plays with a 62% – 37% mark. Winston was up and down earlier in the season, but that was mostly due to his price averaging over the $6,000 mark. Now he’s the lowest he’s been all season with a $5,600 price tag and in a good matchup. The one limitation to follow is the question of how healthy he truly is. I’m ranking Winston as my favorite points/dollar play at QB.
Blaine Gabbert (DK $4,700) – There’s enough value plays this week at quarterback to give you an option of not paying up for QB. Blaine Gabbert might be someone worthy of your considerations given his performances in his last two starts. In two starts this season, Gabbert has completed 61% of his passes and thrown for 498 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. That’s been more productive than expected given his mid 4K price range. What’s been most impressive about Gabbert’s stats is that he did it against good defenses (Jags and Texans), so while the Rams defense is probably not a matchup you want to pick on, Gabbert has been put to the test already this season. What I like most that is in Gabbert’s favor is that he’s a touchdown underdog. The Rams can put up points with the best of them so it wouldn’t surprise me if they jump to an early two-touchdown lead. That leads to a positive game script for Gabbert and more garbage time fantasy points. At $4,700 he only needs 16 points to reach value. He’s exceeded that mark in both of his starts so far.
Cash:
J. Winston, M. Mariota, T. Brady, C. Newton,
GPP:
(above), P. Rivers, J. Goff, D. Carr
Running Backs
Todd Gurley (DK $8,200) – Whenever Gurley does not figure to be the highest owned running back, I always want to consider him at least. Gurley is one of the running backs that has a high floor and higher ceiling, and he’s 4th in the league in touches. This week his team has an implied total of 26 points and are a touchdown favorite on the road. While the on the road aspect is not ideal, Gurley does not have home, and road splits so you can still safely project his volume. The Cardinals are rank worse against the pass (16th aFPA) versus against the run (6th aFPA), but Gurley sees enough volume to be still viable. Gurley has received 18 targets the past three weeks and has converted 13 of those into catches for 141 yards. Gurley is my favorite running back of the top tier given his floor and ceiling combination over Alvin Kamara.
Leonard Fournette (DK $7,800) – My next favorite back after Gurley is Fournette. Fournette is a massive 10 point favorite at home against the Colts who rank 30th in aFPA. Fournette is similar to Gurley where he sees the bulk of the team’s rushing touches and doesn’t have share snaps like the duo in New Orleans. The last time Fournette was a home favorite he failed to meet salary expectations, but this game script figures to be heavily in favor of Fournette. I also like that Fournette has seen more than 3 targets out of the backfield since returning from injury. I’m close to hitting the lock button on Fournette.
Jordan Howard (DK $6,500) – In the midrange there are a few running backs with favorable matchups starting with Howard and Carlos Hyde (DK $5,900). Both are receiving over 60% of the running back snaps and have accounted for over 60% of the team’s rushing yards. Howard comes into this matchup as a 3 point home favorite against the 49ers defense which ranks dead last in aFPA to running backs this season. Last week the game script significantly affected Howard’s production, but this game figures to be better for Howard.
Marshawn Lynch (DK $4,800) – I haven’t played Lynch all season, but if I will, it will be this week. Lynch is a huge home favorite (-9) and is facing the Giants who have already given up on the season and rank 27th in aFPA to RBs. The Raiders receiving staff is greatly depleted with Amari Cooper unlikely to play due to a concussion and Michael Crabtree unlikely to play due to suspension. That could lead to the Raiders running the ball more than their 61% – 39% distribution on the season.
Cash:
T. Gurley, L. Fournette, J. Howard, C. McCaffrey, M. Gordon, J. Williams (if active)
GPP:
(All of above), L. McCoy, Saints RBs, A. Peterson, D. Booker,
Wide Receivers
DeSean Jackson (DK $4,700) & Mike Evans (DK $7,100) – The top receivers of the week for me are both receivers from the Bucs. As I mentioned in the QB section, I love Winston returning this week, and this also correlates to both of his receivers. The Packers have been absolutely torched by opposing wide receivers and rank 31st in aFPA, averaging nearly 29 points per game. Mike Evans is a lock for double-digit targets, and Jackson has shown that he has a higher floor this season and is no longer just a deep threat. Oh, and did you see what Antonio Brown did last week? All in on the BUCS offense!
Cooper Kupp (DK $6,400) – Kupp stepped up last week for the Rams after an injury to Robert Woods left an opening as the second receiver in the Rams offense. Kupp received 11 targets, the most he’s received all season, and turned that into 8 catches and 116 yards. He runs the majority of his routes in the slot and will likely avoid Patrick Peterson with him likely to shadow Sammy Watkins. The best way to attack the Cardinals secondary is in the slot of by targeting anyone not being covered by Peterson. So Kupp should be popular in the mid 6K range.
Davante Adams (DK $6,400) – My preferred pivot off Kupp is Davante Adams. Adams has emerged as the Packers primary receiver since Brett Hundley took over for Aaron Rodgers. Adams leads the team in targets since week 6 with 52 and is averaging over 8 targets per game. He’s been priced very cheap this season and is now at his highest price of the season, so that’s not exactly ideal, but he sees a lot of volume, and the Bucs are last in the league in aFPA to wide receivers. He’s a nice way to get exposure to the Packers offense.
Cordarrelle Patterson (DK $3,400) & Seth Roberts (DK $3,700) – As I mentioned in the Lynch write up, the Raiders will be without their top two receivers creating an opening for both Roberts and Patterson. These receivers are in a good matchup against the Giants who rank 25th in aFPA and just put Janoris Jenkins on IR. On the season these two haven’t been target as much with only 65 targets between for receivers. Roberts has 38 targets, while Patterson has 27. Patterson leads Roberts in targets per snap (9.4% to 7.6%). Last season, Roberts was a target monster in the red zone, but that has changed with the addition of Jared Cook this offseason. Both are worth consideration for GPPs. I think I like Patterson more than Roberts just for the upside that he has to break a slant for a 50 yard gain, but it’s really a coin flip.
Higher Tier Receivers Worth Playing(Above 7K):
K. Allen, B. Cooks, A. Thielen, D. Hopkins, M. Evans
Mid Tier ($5,000 – $7,000):
D. Funches, T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Kupp, R. Anderson, L. Fitzgerald, M. Sanu, D. Thomas, M. Lee
Value (Sub $5,000):
E. Sanders, D. Jackson, Z. Jones, D. Westbrook, J. Gordon, S. Roberts, C. Patterson, R. Cobb, D. Inman
Tight End
Jared Cook (DK $5,400) – Cook will likely be the most popular tight end on the slate with the Raiders wide receivers out. He’s much safer than Patterson and Roberts as Carr has targeted him at least 5 times in all but one game this season. It also turns out that he’s in a great matchup against the Giants who rank 32nd in the league against tight ends. Cook is a safe way to get exposure to the Raiders offense without hurting the floor of your lineup.
Hunter Henry (DK $4,700) – I love me some Hunter Henry this week. Tight end is a position where I don’t like to overthink it and often just follow the flowchart. Who’s playing the Browns? Who’s their leading tight end? Play that tight end. That is Henry this week. Henry has entirely taken over the tight end job over Gates and played 76% of snaps last week, bringing his snap percentage to 65% on the season. He’s also out targeting Gates 44-30 and has 10 targets in the last two weeks. The only thing keeping me from locking in Henry is that I like Cook quite a bit this week.
Cash:
J. Cook, H. Henry, T, Kelce, B. Watson, D. Walker
GPP:
(All above), R. Gronkowski, J. Thomas (#RevengeGame)
Defense
Denver Broncos ($3,000) – The Broncos are road favorites against the Dolphins who are implied to score 19 points and are getting turnover prone Jay Cutler back. The Broncos have been really disappointing this season, but they have seen their price decrease to $3,000 for the first time since they played the Patriots. The Dolphins are nowhere near the Patriots, and the Broncos should feast.
Cash:
LAR, DEN, TEN
GPP:
(All above) LAC, TB, MIA, BALT
