*Chris Durell*
DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 4
Week 4 in the 2017 NFL season is upon us and I am very excited to bring you a new weekly article looking at the DraftKings Pick’Em games. I will be breaking down each Tier and who is likely to be the chalk and who makes a nice pivot to separate yourself in the large field contests. When projecting ownership for fantasy, my main source is always FanShareSports. They track all relevant articles as well as social media mentions and put it all together in an easy to view “Most Tagged List” with sentiment ratings. It’s a great way to determine who is chalk and who will most likely be low owned. This week DraftKings has changed up their slate designations giving us just two Pick’Em slates. I will be looking only at the Sunday Early Only this week. With all that said, let’s jump right into the article.
TIER 1
The first tier has three elite wide receivers and looking at FanShareSports, it appears that A.J. Green is going to be the chalk here. He currently leads all wideouts in tags with 16 and is one of just two at the moment with double-digit start calls. It makes sense as Green gets the best matchup of the three facing the Browns who rank 13th in DraftKings points allowed per game to wideouts(32.3). In comparison, Antonio Brown has nine tags(7 start) and Julio Jones has seven tags(1 start). While Julio holds the Q tag this week, he is my top pivot in tier one. He has seen his targets increase each week and is the only receiver in this group on home field.
TIER 2
We get three elite running backs in tier two and the tags are fairly close at this point between Bell(14), McCoy(12), and Elliott(10). Gameflow is huge for running backs and looking at the Vegas lines, Ezekiel Elliot has the edge as the Cowboys are currently -6 at home to the Rams while McCoy and Bills are eight-point dogs. Bell and the Steelers are small -2.5 favorites on the road but the total is only 42. Looking at the matchups, Elliott and McCoy get the slight edge over bell as the Rams rank 30th and the Falcons 29th in DraftKings points allowed to running backs while the Ravens rank 18th. Elliott would be my top choice followed by Bell who has torched the Ravens for 100+ yards and a touchdown in two of their last three meetings. He has also received 20 targets in those three games with an additional touchdown scored.
TIER 3
Tier three expands to five players with a mix of running backs and wideouts. As of Wednesday afternoon, Devonta Freeman leads all five players with 14 tags (8 start) with fellow running backs Todd Gurley(9 tags, 4 for start) and Christian McCaffrey(9 tags, 7 for start) right behind. Of the three backs, Freeman has, by far, the worst matchup as the Bills rank 3rd overall in DraftKings points allowed. Gurley faces the Cowboys who rank 24th and McCaffrey gets the best matchup vs. the Pats who rank 31st through three games. While McCaffrey is seeing split carries with Jonathan Stewart, he has been heavily involved in the passing game with 23 targets which trails only the Bears Tarik Cohen. Bot wideouts make great pivots as they sit fourth and fifth in tags in this tier. Diggs has seven tags and has been terrific this season with two games over 90 yards receiving, both with two touchdowns. Cooks would be my deep pivot play as he has seen just three tags so far and appears to have built some chemistry with Tom Brady(caught game-winning TD last Sunday) after catching just five balls on 11 targets in the first two weeks.
TIER 4
Tier four gives us a mix of each non-quarterback position and so far this week is very chalky. Each player besides Dez Bryant has seen double-digit tags on FanShare with DeAndre Hopkins leading the way with 10 start calls. He faces a Titans team that ranks 29th in DraftKings points allowed per game to wideouts and leads everyone in the NFL with 12.3 targets per game. Both Cook and Fournetter have nice matchups as well as both the Jets(26th) and Lions(25th) rank near the bottom of the league in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs. I will be fading Gronk this week in both salary cap contests and pick’em as he draws one of the worst matchups for tight ends as the Panthers rank 3rd overall in DraftKings points per game to the tight end position.
TIER 5
The first of two quarterback tiers gives us some interesting options. Andy Dalton and Dak Prescott are the only two that have seen double-digit tags on FanShare so far with Dalton having the best matchup of the two as the Browns rank 25th in DraftKings points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Cam Newton is having a rough start to the season after offseason surgery but gets the best matchup on paper this Sunday as the Pats rank dead last in DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. If you are looking to completely separate yourself in the large tournaments I would consider Matthew Stafford who has just one tag right now as he faces a tough Vikings defense on the road. He does, however, lead all five of these QB’s with an average of 19.6 Dk points per game.
TIER 6
The second tier of quarterbacks includes a bunch of young guys and the veteran Super Bowl Champ, Joe Flacco. The most popular choice will definitely be rookie Deshaun Watson who nearly took down Bill Belichick and the Pats in Gillette Stadium last week. He only attempted 31 passes but threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns while also using his legs running eight times for 41 yards. While the Pats rank dead last vs. QB’s so far, the Titans aren’t far behind ranking 29th, allowing 22.7 DK points per game. I have no problem eating the chalk here in this tier. I will be fading Bortles simply due to the fact he is the only one of the QB’s that is a favorite this week which takes away from his projected pass attempts. I will also be fading Flacco who has only thrown for 300+ yards vs. the Steelers once in his last nine games. My secondary option in this tier would be Deshone Kizer who has attempted 30+ passe sin each of his first three games (47 last game) and like Watson, uses his legs effectively with 17 rushes for 87 yards and two touchdowns.
TIER 7
Tier seven is lead in a big way by Joe Mixon of the Bengals who is expected to see a bigger role this week. If I had to guess, I would expect Mixon to be about 40% or more owned in this tier as he is the only player to see double-digit tags(18) thus far and sits third overall which includes all positions. The Bengals are also road favorites which helps the game flow but the matchup is not in his favor as the Browns rank 10th in DK points allowed to running backs. The Patriots wideouts also face a tough matchup as the Panthers rank 6th in DK points allowed to WR’s but they do have Tom Brady throwing to them and if I had to choose one it would be Chris Hogan who has much more upside as a deep threat. Adam Thielen and Golden Tate face off in Minnesota this week and I would lean Thielen as Tate will likely draw shadow coverage from Xavier Rhodes who has shut everyone down this season
TIER 8
The final tier has two tight ends this week and I will be avoiding both as the position has been very inconsistent this season. We also get a choice between two of the Patriot running backs and game-flow makes the decision easy for me this week. The Patriots are currently nine-point favorites at home and projected to score around 28-30 points. That works into Mike Gillislee’s favor as he is the pounder of the two and gets the goaline work. Of the four wideouts, I lean Rishard Matthews who is averaging eight targets per week and has scored a touchdown in nine of his last 15 games.
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!