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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations – Conference Championships

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

And then there were four. The NFL brings us the Conference Championships this weekend with the top four teams set to face off for a chance to play in the Super Bowl. It also means this will be our last opportunity to play anything other than single-game contests in DFS. Let’s discuss some players who stand out at each position based on their matchups. Of note, there will be no breakdown for defense/special teams. The reason is all four of these teams have great offenses, so don’t overthink the position. Just play whichever team fits into the slot after you’ve selected your offensive players. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our NFL Lineup Optimizer to help you build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

QUARTERBACKS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Conference Championships

Patrick Mahomes vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $6,600

The Chiefs scored 31 points last week, so Mahomes must have shined, right? Well, not exactly. He did complete 65.9 percent of his passes for 278 yards and did not throw an interception. However, he also didn’t throw a touchdown pass for just the second time this season. Luckily, he chipped in a rushing touchdown, but it was still a disappointing state line, overall. He’ll look to rebound against the Patriots, who allowed 29 passing touchdowns during the regular season. The Chiefs also might be forced to throw the ball more to keep up with the Patriots’ offense, setting up Mahomes to potentially have a nice bounce-back performance.

Tom Brady vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $5,800

This game between the Patriots and Chiefs should be the more fantasy-friendly contest despite the potential for playing in cold conditions. The Chiefs allowed the second-most passing yards per game (273) during the regular season and Brady torched them for 340 yards in Week 6. Even though Brady doesn’t have the benefit of playing this game at home, the potential for a shootout makes him an appealing option if you don’t want to pay up for Mahomes.

RUNNING BACKS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Conference Championships

James White vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,700
DraftKings = $5,400

Technically, White is a running back. However, he didn’t receive a single carry last week against the Chargers. That didn’t stop him from having a monster game, though, as he caught 15 of 17 targets for 97 yards. While the 17 targets seem like a crazy number, White actually had four games during the regular season in which he received at least 10 targets, so it’s not as outlandish as you might think. The Chiefs allowed the fifth-most receiving yards (895) to opposing running backs during the regular season, leaving White with tremendous upside once again.

Sony Michel vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $5,600

One of the reasons why White didn’t carry the ball against the Chargers is because Michel was eating them up on the ground. He finished the game with 24 carries for 129 yards and three touchdowns. The lopsided score certainly helped with his workload, but don’t expect him to slow down in his second meeting with the Chiefs this season. The last time they played each other, Michel piled up 106 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries. The Chiefs allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game (132.1) during the regular season, setting up Michel with the potential for another monster performance.

Damien Williams vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,200
DraftKings = $6,400

Everything went right for Williams last week against the Colts. He received a season-high 25 carries with Spencer Ware (hamstring) once again inactive and made the most of his opportunities by piling up 129 yards. He also recorded a rushing touchdown and caught five of six targets for an additional 25 yards. With teams having to focus so much on the Chiefs’ passing game, it’s hard to slow down Williams, as well. They also move the ball up and down the field so well that Williams is left with plenty of scoring opportunities. Even if Ware returns this week, expect Williams to receive the bulk of the carries once again.

WIDE RECEIVERS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Conference Championships

Michael Thomas vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,200

Thomas entered last week with an extremely favorable matchup against an injury-riddled Eagles’ secondary. He certainly didn’t disappoint, catching 12 of 16 targets for 171 yards and a touchdown. The 16 targets were very encouraging to see because the Saints have been known to spread the ball around at times this season. Even though this isn’t as favorable of a matchup, Thomas had no problems against the Rams in Week 9 when he recorded 12 receptions on 15 targets for 211 yards and a touchdown. He’s by far the best receiving option on the Saints and stands out as the wide receiver with maybe the highest upside of anyone in action Sunday.

Julian Edelman vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $6,600

The Patriots suffered a significant loss when Josh Gordon had to leave the team. Rob Gronkowski has appeared to be a shell of his former self, which has required them to lean even more heavily on Edelman. He was plenty involved last week against the Chargers, catching nine of 13 targets for 151 yards. He now has a total of 52 targets across their last five games. Edelman stands out as a stellar play against the porous Chiefs’ defense.

Phillip Dorsett vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $5,500
DraftKings = $3,900

With only two games, viable cheap options are few and far between. However, your budget won’t allow you to load up on stars, so you need to take chances somewhere. Dorsett might be a risk worth taking after he caught four of five targets for 51 yards and a touchdown last week. He now has a touchdown in back-to-back contests and doesn’t receive a ton of attention from opposing defenses since they have to try and slow down Edelman, Gronkowski, Michel, and White. If he finds his way into the end zone again here, he could be a difference maker in DFS.

TIGHT ENDS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Conference Championships

Travis Kelce vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $7,100

If there was ever a week to pay up for Kelce, this is it. The other options outside of him are not very exciting. He came through with seven catches for 108 yards last week after totaling at least 100 yards in a game five times during the regular season. Expect the Patriots to try and key in on shutting him down, but he receives so many targets that his floor is still exceptionally high. The Patriots also allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends during the regular season.

Rob Gronkowski vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $5,600
DraftKings = $4,100

It looks like Gronkowski’s days in the NFL are numbered. He’s having a hard time getting open and isn’t nearly involved offensively as a result. He only had one target last week, marking his third straight game with three or fewer targets. The clear choice at tight end is Kelce, but if you decide you want to load up elsewhere, Gronkowski is a dart throw with some upside since the Chiefs were destroyed for 1,067 yards and 10 touchdowns by tight ends in the regular season.

Author Bio:

Mike has been covering fantasy sports since 2007, joining Lineup Lab in 2017. An avid player of both season-long fantasy leagues and DFS, Mike’s work has appeared on numerous sites, including RotoWire, SportsLine and Sports Illustrated. He’s also been featured on ESPN Radio and DraftKings’ nightly show, The Sweat.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations – Divisional Round

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

With Wild Card Weekend in the books, the NFL moves on to the Divisional Round of the playoffs this week. There will be some excellent offenses in action, which could set up for a high scoring weekend in DFS. Let’s discuss some players who stand out at each position based on their matchups. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our NFL Lineup Optimizer to help you build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

QUARTERBACKS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Divisional Round

Patrick Mahomes vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $7,000

The Chiefs couldn’t have asked for anything more from Mahomes this season. He not only brought them back to the playoffs in his first season as a starter, but he threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns. There were some concerns heading into the season that Mahomes could be prone to throwing interceptions, but that never really came to fruition as he finished with only 12 picks. He had the highest floor of any quarterback in DFS, throwing for at least two touchdown passes in all but two games. With the Chiefs running game still dealing with the loss of Kareem Hunt, their chances of advancing to the next round rest squarely on Mahomes’ shoulders. Look for him to come through with another productive outing.

Nick Foles vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $5,400

Foles and the Eagles are at it again. They went on the road last week and knocked off a tough Bears team, 16-15. Foles carried over his playoff success from last year, throwing for 266 yards and two touchdowns. Yes, he threw two interceptions, as well, but his overall stat line is still impressive considering his opponent. Now he’ll get to face a Saints team that tied for the third-most passing yards allowed per game (269) during the regular season. At this cheap price, rolling with Foles in tournament play is a viable option.

RUNNING BACKS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Divisional Round

Ezekiel Elliott vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $8,200

The Cowboys don’t have a great offense, but Elliott can cover up a lot of holes. He was the key to their win over the Seahawks last week, carrying the ball 26 times for 137 yards and a touchdown. He was also plenty busy in the passing game, catching four of five targets for an additional 32 yards. With at least 100 total yards in nine straight games, Elliott is a safe bet to be productive. The Rams’ defense has had their problems stopping the run and ended the regular season allowing the most yards-per-carry (5.1) in the league.

Marlon Mack vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,800

Andrew Luck grabs a lot of the headlines for the Colts, and rightfully so. His return to form is the main reason that they have been successful. However, Mack was just as important last week against the Texans, rushing for 148 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. He’s now logged at least 24 carries in three of their last four games, averaging 135.3 yards. He’s also had a nose for the end zone, scoring at least one touchdown in five straight contests. The Chiefs allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game (132.1) and tied for the third-most rushing touchdowns allowed (19) this year, setting up Mack with another opportunity to shine.

Darren Sproles vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $4,400

Oddly enough, Sproles received more carries than any other Eagles’ running back last week against the Bears. He turned his 13 carries into just 21 yards, but that workload says something about how the team views him within their offense. He was on the field for 56 percent of their offensive snaps, compared to 41 percent for Wendell Smallwood and one percent for Josh Adams. With how well the Saints have stopped the run this year, it’s hard to see any of their running backs rushing for a lot of yards. However, the Eagles might have to throw a lot to keep up with the Saints offense, so that game script would seem to favor Sproles. Even at this late stage of his career, he is still a dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield. If you’re looking for a cheap option in tournament play, Sproles has some upside.

WIDE RECEIVERS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Divisional Round

Michael Thomas vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $7,900

Overall, Thomas had a spectacular season with 125 receptions on 147 targets for 1,405 yards and nine touchdowns. However, a lot of his damage came early in the year. He was fairly quiet down the stretch, posting 49 yards or fewer in four of his last six contests. The Saints spread the ball around quite a bit, which sometimes didn’t leave Thomas with a ton of opportunities. With that being said, don’t let that shy you away from deploying him this week. The Eagles secondary is a mess and was torched by Allen Robinson for 10 receptions, 143 yards, and a touchdown last week. Nothing against Robinson, but he’s not in the same league as Thomas. The Eagles have their work cut out for them.

Alshon Jeffery vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,800

The return of Foles at quarterback has done wonders for Jeffery. Before Foles took over in Week 15, Jeffery only had two games all season with at least 80 receiving yards. However, with Foles at the helm, he reached that mark three times across four contests. Considering how banged up the Eagles’ defense is and how well the Saints play at home, there is a good chance that the Eagles are going to have to score a lot to keep this game close. That should lead to plenty of targets for Jeffery.

Dontrelle Inman vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,800

T.Y. Hilton stands out as by far the best receiving threat on the Colts. Behind him, they haven’t really had a consistent producer. Inman hasn’t received a ton of opportunities, but he enters this contest with a touchdown in each of his last three games. He received a total of 15 targets during that stretch and was on the field for 70 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps last week, highest among all other wide receivers behind Hilton. With how poorly the Chiefs’ defense has played, don’t overlook Inman if you need a cheap option in tournament play.

TIGHT ENDS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Divisional Round

Eric Ebron vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $5,500

Ebron was only on the field for 49 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps last week, but that didn’t stop him from catching another touchdown. Even though his yardage production has been hit-or-miss, he’s still a great option in DFS based on his touchdown production. This is about as juicy of a matchup as it gets against a Chiefs team that allowed 1,067 yards and 10 touchdowns to tight ends this year.

Rob Gronkowski vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,600

Are we seeing the demise of Gronk? He scored just three touchdowns during the regular season, marking the first time in his career where he scored fewer than eight touchdowns during a season in which he played at least 10 games. His 52.5 receiving yards per game was also the second-lowest mark of his career. His upside isn’t what it once was, but he’s still an important part of the Patriots’ offense. Ebron is the safe pick, but if you’re looking to save some even more money at tight end, Gronkowski is a viable option during such a limited slate.

DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations - Divisional Round

Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $3,000

The Rams defense can give up some points, but that doesn’t mean they are a bad option. They finished with 18 interceptions during the regular season, which tied for the third-most in the league. They also posted 41 sacks, led by star tackle Aaron Donald. The Cowboys are by no means an offensive juggernaut, even with one of the best running backs in the league on their team, setting up the Rams with the potential to be one of the better defensive plays of the weekend.

New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $2,600

The Chargers running back situation is concerning. Melvin Gordon has been banged up down the stretch and suffered another knee injury last week against the Ravens. He returned to that contest and is expected to play this week, but he might not be 100 percent healthy. Austin Ekeler was ineffective as he battled a groin injury last week, rushing 11 times for just 29 yards. Playing in Gillette Stadium in the playoffs is no easy task, so it’s hard to imagine this being one of the better offensive performances of the year from the Chargers.

Author Bio:

Mike has been covering fantasy sports since 2007, joining Lineup Lab in 2017. An avid player of both season-long fantasy leagues and DFS, Mike’s work has appeared on numerous sites, including RotoWire, SportsLine and Sports Illustrated. He’s also been featured on ESPN Radio and DraftKings’ nightly show, The Sweat.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 15 – WR, TE, DEF/ST

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

We’ve already discussed some of the top plays at quarterback and running back for Week 15 in DFS, so now let’s dive into the rest of the positions and target some of the best options to consider. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

WIDE RECEIVERS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 15 - WR, TE, DEF/ST

JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $7,800
DraftKings = $8,000

Smith-Schuster came away with another monster performance last week against the Raiders, catching eight of 12 targets for 130 yards and two touchdowns. With opposing defenses focusing their efforts on Antonio Brown, Smith-Schuster has been able to record seven games with at least 100 receiving yards this season. In fact, he has 91 receptions and 1,234 yards compared to 86 receptions and 1,063 yards for Brown. However, Brown has the edge in touchdowns with 12 compared to six for Smith-Schuster. This could be a high-scoring game against a Patriots offense that finally has a healthy complement of skill players, leaving Smith-Schuster with a high floor once again.

Tyler Boyd vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $5,700

It’s hard to get too excited about the Bengals’ passing attack with both Andy Dalton (thumb) and A.J. Green (foot) on the shelf. Jeff Driskel hasn’t exactly played well since taking over for Dalton, throwing for 406 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception over two games. Boyd hasn’t been able to find his way into the end zone, but he has been active with nine catches for 149 on 14 targets during that stretch. This is a favorable matchup against a Raiders defense that has allowed the most passing touchdowns (31) in the league, making Boyd a viable option despite Driskel’s lackluster play.

Robert Foster vs. Detroit Lions
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $4,300

The Bills were already extremely thin at wide receiver when they decided to release both Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes. Zay Jones is now their top receiver, but Foster also has a much larger role. He logged 96 percent of the Bills’ offensive snaps in Week 14, catching seven of eight targets for 104 yards. Actually, that marked the third time in the last four games where he racked up at least 94 yards. Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen isn’t a very accurate passer, but the amount of targets that Foster should receive makes him a viable cheap option in tournament play.

Jordy Nelson vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $4,200

Nelson seems to be over his battle with a knee injury, logging at least 90 percent of the Raiders’ offensive snaps in each of their last three games. He couldn’t get much going against a tough Ravens defense in Week 12, but he’s amassed 16 receptions for 145 yards across his last two games. With the Raiders short on talent after trading away Amari Cooper, Nelson received 18 targets during their last two contests. The Bengals allow the fourth-most passing yards per game (274) in the league, leaving Nelson as an intriguing cost-effective option for your entry.

TIGHT ENDS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 15 - WR, TE, DEF/ST

Rob Gronkowski vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $6,900
DraftKings = $5,800

When Gronkowski is healthy, his upside is off the charts. The problem is, that’s been a rare occurrence this season. The good news for the Patriots is that he’s healthy right now and might be peaking at the time of the year when it matters the most. He made quick work of the Dolphins last week, catching all eight of his targets for 107 yards and one touchdown. That was his first 100-yard game since Week 1. Although he only has three touchdowns this season, two of them have come in the last three weeks. The Steelers have allowed 853 yards and seven touchdowns to tight ends, potentially setting up Gronkowski for another dominant performance.

Jared Cook vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $5,600

With the Raiders short on options at wide receiver, Cook has become one of the main weapons in their passing game. He’s already set career-highs in receptions (61), receiving yards (825) and touchdowns (six) with three games still to go. His last two games have been especially productive, catching 14 of 18 targets for 216 yards and a touchdown. Opposing tight ends have racked up 771 yards and seven touchdowns against the Bengals this year, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down Cook.

C.J. Uzomah vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $3,600

Uzomah hasn’t been overly productive with Driskel at the helm the last two weeks, catching eight of 10 targets for 70 yards. However, of all the healthy skill players that the Bengals have left, Uzomah being on the field for 85 percent of their offensive snaps is the second-highest mark on the team behind Boyd. The Raiders have been the worst team in football at defending tight ends, allowing 961 yards and nine touchdowns to the position. At this cheap price, Uzomah’s high snap rate makes him an intriguing tournament option.

DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 15 - WR, TE, DEF/ST

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – TIAA Bank Field
FanDuel = $4,800
DraftKings = $3,400

If you play in season-long fantasy, the demise of the Jaguars’ defense should serve as a reminder to never pay up for defenses early in drafts. They’ve regressed significantly after being one of the most stout units in the league last year, including allowing 30 points to the Titans in Week 14 and 24 points to the Bills in Week 12. Their sacks are down significantly and they haven’t been forcing a lot of turnovers, either. Despite all of that, they are still a great option in Week 15 against a Redskins team that has been decimated by injuries to the quarterback position. It’s to the point where Josh Johnson will start this game. To put that into perspective, prior to his relief effort of Mark Sanchez in Week 14, Johnson hadn’t thrown a pass in the NFL since 2011.

New York Giants vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $2,600

The Giants are coming on strong down the stretch, but it might be a case of too little, too late for their playoff chances. Not only are they scoring more points, but their defense has 10 sacks, five interceptions, a fumble recovery and two touchdowns across their last two games. That came against a Bears team starting Chase Daniels at quarterback and the aforementioned dumpster fire that is the Redskins’ quarterback situation, but at least they took care of business. The Titans offense isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, either, averaging just 19.3 points per game, leaving the Giants a viable option in tournament play.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 – TE/DEF/ST

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Early bird special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

The NFL season is finally here! Along with it comes another exciting year of daily fantasy football. We’ll be doing things a little differently as we look to help you fatten your wallet. We’ll be churning out four articles a week, including one each for quarterbacks, runnings backs, wide receivers and a combined piece for tight ends and defenses/special teams.

In each article, we’ll highlight some players to target for cash or GPP contents. We’ll also discuss players to avoid as your craft your lineup. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 - TE/DEF/ST

Rob Gronkowski vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $6,900

Gronkowski was able to stay relatively healthy last year and he put up big numbers as a result. He caught 69 of 105 targets for 1,084 yards and eight touchdowns. He also received 21 red zone targets, second to only Jimmy Graham (27) among tight ends. In the last four seasons that Gronkowski has played at least 14 games, he has at least 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns in each of them.

While he’s always one of Tom Brady’s top targets, Gronkowski will likely be leaned on even more so with Julian Edelman suspended for the first four games of the season. Outside of Chris Hogan, the Patriots are extremely thin at wide receiver. For a Week 1 schedule that has so many viable cheap options at running back and wide receiver, this might be the time to pay up to get Gronkowski into your lineup.

Delanie Walker vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $4,900

Walker is as steady as they come at tight end. He’s logged at least 100 targets, 60 receptions and 800 receiving yards in four consecutive seasons. His three touchdowns last year were a bit of a disappointment, but the struggles of quarterback Marcus Mariota led to some down numbers for most of the Titans pass catchers. Mariota threw just 13 touchdowns the entire season.

The Titans still don’t have a ton of great weapons on offense, but they did bring in Dion Lewis to form a solid duo out of the backfield with Derrick Henry. They also should see some improvement from second-year receiver Corey Davis. That might help take some of the attention away from Walker by opposing defenses. Considering Walker received at least five targets in all but one game last year, he has one of the highest floors at the tight end position.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $4,800
DraftKings = $3,800

This seems like the chalk play of the week. The Bills offense looks simply atrocious outside of LeSean McCoy. Nathan Peterman will be their starting quarterback after he threw one touchdown and five interceptions in two starts last year. They are extremely thin at wide receiver, as well, which doesn’t exactly help Peterman’s cause. The Ravens were excellent at creating turnovers last year with 22 interceptions and 12 fumble recoveries. Don’t overthink this one, play the Ravens.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 - TE/DEF/ST

Jordan Reed vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $4,000

Reed has never played more than 14 games during a season in his career. In four of his five years in the league, he’s played 12 games or fewer. More injuries ruined his 2017 campaign, resulting in him playing just six games. He wasn’t productive when he was on the field, either, averaging 35.2 yards per contest.

The good news is that Reed looks to be healthy heading into Week 1.  The Redskins managed his workload throughout training camp and during the preseason, but he’s not listed on their injury report for this game. Although he’ll be playing with a new quarterback in Alex Smith, Reed is one of the best pass-catching options on the Redskins roster. It’s not often that you get the opportunity to roster him at such a reduced price, so this might be an opportunity to pounce on.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins vs. New York Giants
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $3,200

Seferian-Jenkins entered the league with a lot of promise after being selected 38th overall in the 2014 draft by the Buccaneers. Off-the-field issues prevented him from fulfilling his potential with the Buccaneers, ultimately leading him to become a member of the Jets. He played a career-high 13 games for the Jets last year, catching 50 of 74 targets for 357 yards and three touchdowns.

The Jaguars badly needed to add talent at tight end, ultimately leading them to take a chance on Seferian-Jenkins. He gets a great matchup right out of the gate against a Giants defense that allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends last year and looks to be soft in the middle of the field again this season. Seferian-Jenkins is dealing with a core injury right now, but if he’s cleared to play, he has an excellent opportunity to outproduce his price point.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $2,800

The Chiefs certainly have plenty of talent on offense, led by Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. They have turned over the reins at quarterback to Patrick Mahomes, their promising first-round pick from 2017. Mahomes has a great arm and could be in store for a productive NFL career, but he gets a tough assignment Week 1 on the road against a Chargers defense that can create pressure with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. They did lose cornerback Jason Verrett due to a torn Achilles, but they still have an extremely talented secondary. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers create a couple of turnovers in this game.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 - TE/DEF/ST

Evan Engram vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,700

The Giants were decimated by injuries at wide receiver last year, which sometimes left Engram as their best pass-catching option. He had a promising rookie campaign, overall, catching 64 of 115 targets for 772 yards and six touchdowns. The Giants are healthy at wide receiver heading into Week 1 and added talented rookie running back Saquon Barkley to their backfield, so Engram might not see a ton of targets come his way. Add in the fact that he is playing the stingy Jaguars defense and he’s risky at this price.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $3,100

The “Legion of Boom” era is officially a thing of the past in Seattle. Not only did they lose Richard Sherman this offseason, but Sheldon Richardson and Michael Bennett are also gone from their defensive front. They did receive some encouraging news when Earl Thomas ended his holdout Wednesday, but it’s unclear if he’ll be able to play at full capacity considering his last-minute arrival. The Broncos improved significantly at quarterback with Case Keenum and also added promising rookie running back Royce Freeman during the offseason, leaving the Seahawks as a defense to avoid for your entry.

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots


 

We’ve arrived at the Conference Championships and are down to four teams fighting for a chance to hoist the Lombardi trophy. For Brady, it’s just another ordinary January, but for the rest, this is a chance to put their stamp on a franchise that took a chance on them when no other team in the NFL would.

Unfortunately Championship weekend also signals the end of the DFS football season until late August. I’m assuming Draftkings will continue to run out single-game slates, but I haven’t played those, so I’m not sure if I’ll be playing. Because there are only two games this week, I’m going to run through my write up a little differently. Opposed to going position by position, I’ll break down both championship games and write off my favorite plays for the games. But before I do that, I wanted to go over some strategies I like to employ when playing only two game slates.

I’ve had some pretty good success over the past two season with the two-game prime time slates. They’re entertaining because you’re able to keep a close eye on each game and every play matters. Ownership is easier to predict, and the focus should be more on getting the best players into your lineup opposed to finding players with low ownership. Sure if you want to fire away multi-entries in the $4 Final Four with $400K + entries you can get crazy with playing a less than 10% owned player, but that’s not the ideal strategy for two-game slates.

The key to playing two-game slates is trying to figure out what the game flow of each game is going to be. We usually use Vegas lines to give us an idea of how the experts think the game will play out, but for two games slates, we need to combine that with our opinions of how the game script is going to go. You should always take a stance on whether you think a game total is too high or too low, but it’s important to set your lineup up with positive correlation to ensure you get the most out of your lineup.

You’ll see a lot of lineups this weekend with game stacks and even team stacks. We’ll likely see several lineups with people rostering all of the offensive Patriots and bringing it back with some Jaguars in hopes of accumulating all of the points in that game. The best way to do that is by running through the game script scenarios:

I.e., If the Patriots score 28 points, I think Brady will account for 3 touchdowns and their running back [Lewis, Burkhead, White] will account for the 4th touchdown. If the Pats score early, that opens up the passing defense to play Prevent Defense, which creates throwing lanes over the middle for Bortles. That’s a general idea of how I generate game stacks; the tricky part is finding which players have the highest touchdown equity and playing them in your lineups. I’ll do my best to break down how I see these two games playing out, but you should come up with your theory of the games this week and play lineups accordingly.

Jaguars (19.5) at Patriots (27) | NE [-9] | Over/Under 46.5

New England Patriots (27)

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

* News *

T. Brady – limited on Thursday (hand) – expected to play
R. Burkhead – limited on Thursday (knee) – expected to play

For the second consecutive week, the Patriots have the best Vegas numbers of all the teams on the slate. They are the largest favorites (-7), have the highest implied total (27), and have the highest game total (46.6). The difference from last week is that the Pats are not going up against the mediocre Titans defense again. They are going up against the Jags who ranked fourth DVOA in total defense, and first in passing defense, per Football Outsiders.

The Jags are coming off of a week where they allowed the Steelers to put up 42 points and 545 total yards (462 pass, 83 rush). That is only the second time the Jags defense has allowed more than 40 points this season (44 to 49ers and 42 to Steelers). While this defense is far from one that offense would like to face, they are far from unbeatable.

A very detailed article by Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis broke down the secret to beating the Jaguars pass defense and essentially blueprinted the Patriots game plan. This is a must-read for anyone trying to figure out how the Patriots will attack this Jaguars defense. Check out the article here. Onto DFS.

You are surely going to want to get your exposure to the Patriots offense. But the question is where? As a team with an implied total near four touchdowns, that generally bodes well for Tom Brady ($7,700). But as a big home favorite and in a matchup against a defense that funnels offensive production to running backs, which also bodes well for the New England running backs. So which way should you go?

After reading Sharps article is crystal clear the best way to attack the Jags is over the middle with at most two wide receiver sets. They have a strong defensive line and secondary but are average at linebacker. That opens things up for Gronk and the running backs. So I’m looking to build Brady stacks with Gronk ($7,900) and one, possibly two of the New England running backs. Brady and Gronk are the top plays on the board and I will have them on 70% of my lineups.

Unfortunately, the New England running back situation is far from a clear picture. Dion Lewis ($8,100) is the slates highest price running back and has done exceptionally well over the past four weeks, scoring five touchdowns during that span. But with the news that Rex Burkhead ($5,400) will likely return for the first time in three weeks, it could eat away from Lewis’ production. On top of Burkhead’s return, we saw last week James White ($4,900) eat into Lewis’ production by scoring two touchdowns against the Titans.

I don’t have a problem with playing any one of these running backs with Brady because they are all capable of catching the ball. I still think Lewis will get the majority of the workload even with all three backs active. Even though Burkhead may return I strongly think White will have more opportunity over him because he was productive with his touches last week and the Pats are likely to ease Burkhead back into action. I really like White for the savings he brings, and I’m leaning toward a hard fade on Burkhead simply because on two-game slates you have to take a stand on questionable players.

I’d rank them Lewis, White, Burkhead.

I don’t mind pairing one or two of these running backs with Brady because I am likely not to stack Brady with any one of his wide receivers. As Sharp’s article pointed out, the best way to target the Jags is over the middle and with the running backs. I don’t like picking on Ramsey or Bouye on the corners. If I had to rank the Pats receivers

I’d go Chris Hogan ($5,000), Brandin Cooks ($6,100), Danny Amendola ($5,500). But none of these come close to Gronk.

Last week, the Jags allowed Steelers tight end Vance McDonald to a team-high 10 catches. Imagine what Gronk will do if he’s funneled with 16 targets that McDonald saw last week. Gronk is might be the best play of the entire slate.

PATRIOTS PLAYS:
T. Brady, R. Gronkowski, D. Lewis, J. White, C. Hogan, B. Cooks

Jacksonville Jaguars (19.5)

Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

* News *

L. Fournette – limited on Thursday (ankle) – expected to play
T. Gipson (FS) – missed practice on Thursday (foot) – expected to play

On the Jags side of the ball, we have a few intriguing options, starting with the quarterback. Don’t throw up, but Blake Bortles ($5,000) is a popular punt play that is worthy of your consideration. NFL coverage on every station has bashed Bortles’ inconsistent play, but somehow he has gotten the Jags to the AFC championship game. In his two playoff games, Bortles has completed only 53% of his passes and has thrown for a combined 301 yards with 2 touchdowns. Those numbers are a far cry from what you’d like to see from a quarterback in a championship game, but Bortles has added some production with his legs to make up for his lack of production through the air. In the past two games, Bortles has 123 rushing yards on 15 attempts (8.2 YPC). The added rushing production has made him rosterable considering his minimum priced salary.

Now Bortles faces the Patriots defense that ranked 21st DVOA during the regular season but isn’t as bad as their ranking suggest. The Patriots haven’t allowed a quarterback to throw for 300 yards since week 6. However, even though the Patriots are much improved, if the game script goes as Vegas and several other analysts suggest, Bortles could be looking at plenty of garbage time opportunities to reach his value at only $5k. Even if the Jags manage an early lead, it bodes well for Bortles because he owns a passer rating of 103 when playing with a lead.

If I’m playing Bortles or trying to find a Jaguar receiver to create a game stack with I’m rostering Dede Westbrook ($3,900) or Marquise Lee ($4,400). Despite only seeing 9 targets combined last week, Westbrook and Lee still played over 65% of the snaps last week. Since the Jags got their full receiving corp healthy, Lee and Westbrook have led the way in snaps and targets, while Keelan Cole ($3,500) and Allen Hurns ($3,300) have split time in the slot. Although the best way to attack the Patriots secondary is receivers in the slot, I still prefer Westbrook and Lee over Cole and Hurns because they are more likely to be on the field.

My rankings for the Jags receivers are Westbrook, Lee, Cole, and Hurns.

The real focal point of the Jags offense is their running game. Leonard Fournette ($7,200) is the lone back on the slate that doesn’t have to worry about touches. Fournette is the only running back that is guaranteed to touch the ball over 20 times. He’s also the lone back that doesn’t have to share touches with anyone. The issue with Fournette is that he could suffer from a negative game script. If the game goes the way Vegas projects, that could limit Fournette’s rushes, and he has only averaged 3 receptions over the past four games. On top of that, Belichick gameplans to take away the opposing offenses’ best player and that means Fournette will likely see 7 to 8 men in the box. The positive side of rostering Fournette is that you get nice touchdown equity. Despite averaging a modest 4.4 YPC last week, he accounted for 3 of the 5 offensive touchdowns. It’s worth noting that the Patriots have only given up 5 rushing touchdowns on the year and last week held Derrick Henry 2.3 YPC. The matchup and negative game script make me cautious in rostering Fournette this week despite his $1,500 drop off from last week.

JAGUARS:
B. Bortles, D. Westbrook, M. Lee, L. Fournette *only if you are fading Brady and stacking with Jags DST*

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations – Conference Championships

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner*

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations – Conference Championships

The NFL DFS season comes to a close with the Conference Championships on Sunday. Thank you for reading all of our articles throughout this season. We hope we were able to help you craft a winning entry more often than not. Let’s ride off into the sunset with one more big payday. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.

**QUARTERBACKS**

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations - Conference Championships

Tom Brady vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $7,700
FanDuel = $9,000

Brady is well known for his success in the playoffs and started out true to form last weekend, throwing for 337 yards and three touchdowns against the Titans. He has by far the most playoff experience of any of the quarterbacks still playing, appearing in 11 career Conference Championship games. He threw for 2,756 yards and 15 touchdowns in those games. The Jaguars have an elite defense, but most teams still left standing at this point are going to be tough to score against. The Jaguars did allow 42 points to the Steelers last week, so they aren’t impenetrable. Brady is the most expensive quarterback, but he also has the highest upside.

Case Keenum vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $6,600
FanDuel = $8,000

Keenum carried his excellent play during the regular season into the playoffs, throwing for 318 yards and one touchdown last week against the Saints. The fact that he played so well and helped lead an improbable comeback was especially impressive when you consider it was his first career start in the playoffs. The Eagles defense is no pushover, but they did allow 24 passing touchdowns this season, tied with the Patriots for the most among the four teams still playing. If you don’t want to pay up for Brady, Keenum should be the next best option.

**RUNNING BACKS**

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations - Conference Championships

Leonard Fournette vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $7,200
FanDuel = $8,500

Fournette is the one clear workhorse left at running back in the playoffs. He rushed 25 times for 109 yards and three touchdowns in the Divisional Round, marking his ninth game with at least 20 carries this season. He’s been fairly involved in the passing game as well, receiving at least four targets in five of his last six games. Although the Patriots allowed only six rushing touchdowns all season, they did allow an average of 114.8 rushing yards per game, placing them in the bottom half of the league.  With plenty of carries likely on tap this week, Fournette is an excellent option for your entry.

Dion Lewis vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $8,100
FanDuel = $7,700

Lewis racked up yardage against the Titans last week, rushing 15 times for 62 yards and hauling in nine of ten targets for 79 yards. It marked his third-straight game with at least 100 total yards, all of which came with Rex Burkhead (knee) injured. Burkhead is expected to be available to return this week, but he might not be able to resume his normal workload right away. Lewis has done nothing to lose any touches either. The Jaguars allowed 116.3 rushing yards per game during the regular season, the most of any of the four remaining teams. Look for Lewis to provide enough value again in this game.

Latavius Murray vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $5,700
FanDuel = $6,900

Murray has been splitting time with Jerick McKinnon in the Vikings backfield but had 20 rushing attempts last week compared to only eight for McKinnon. He rushed for just 50 yards, but he did manage to score a touchdown. He’s had a knack for reaching the end zone lately, scoring at least one touchdown in three of his last four games. The Eagles are tough against the run, but Murray can still provide value at this price based on his touchdown potential.

**WIDE RECEIVERS**

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations - Conference Championships

Adam Thielen vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $7,400
FanDuel = $7,400

Thielen set career-highs across the board this season, finishing in the top-10 in the league in targets (142), receptions (91) and receiving yards (1,276). He only had four touchdowns, but still provided tremendous value in DFS most weeks. He showed no signs of slowing down last week against the Saints, hauling in six of nine targets for 74 yards. The Eagles allowed Julio Jones to record nine catches and 101 receiving yards for the Falcons in the Divisional Round, so they can give up some big performances. Volume alone makes Thielen worth consideration.

Stefon Diggs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $6,900
FanDuel = $6,700

Diggs had 20 fewer receptions this regular season than he did in the previous year, but a lot of that was because his catch percentage dropped by almost nine percent. He still received 95 targets and finished with a career-high eight touchdowns. He made the most of his catches as well, averaging 13.3 yards per reception this season compared to only 10.8 yards per reception last year. Last week against the Saints, he caught six of 10 targets, finishing with 136 yards and, of course, the game-winning touchdown. Playing both he and Thielen in your lineup is not a bad idea when you consider the other options available during a limited week.

Marqise Lee vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $4,400
FanDuel = $6,100

Simply put, Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles has struggled to throw the ball in two games during the playoffs, combining to complete 26-of-49 passes for 301 yards and two touchdowns. He’s provided value with rushing yards, but that doesn’t help his receivers. The Jaguars might need to throw the ball more Sunday to keep up with the Patriots offense, which could mean added production for Lee. Lee received six targets last week against the Steelers and had 95 targets during the regular season as one of Bortles’ go-to options. Of all the receivers on the Jaguars, Lee might have the highest ceiling.

Chris Hogan vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $5,000
FanDuel = $6,100

Hogan only caught one of his four targets last week but salvaged the day by cashing in that one catch for a touchdown. Although he only played nine games during the regular season, he finished with a career-high five touchdown receptions. He averaged 6.6 targets per game, so he’s played a significant role in the Patriots offense when healthy. There aren’t a lot of great cheap options with so many excellent defenses taking the field Sunday, but Hogan’s touchdown potential gives him upside.

**TIGHT ENDS**

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations - Conference Championships

Rob Gronkowski vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $7,900
FanDuel = $8,400

Gronkowski had another dominant playoff performance against the Titans last week, catching six passes for 81 yards and one touchdown. In 11 career playoff games, Gronkowski has 835 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. The Jaguars limited opposing tight ends to just five touchdowns during the regular season, but facing Gronkowski is an entirely different animal. He’s clearly the tight end with the highest ceiling in the Conference Championships.

Kyle Rudolph vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $4,500
FanDuel = $6,100

Rudolph finished with 83 receptions and 840 yards in 2016 but had only 57 receptions for 532 yards this year. He saw a drastic decrease in targets, but still managed to score eight touchdowns, which was actually one more than last year. The Vikings look for him when they get in close as he received 18 targets inside the red zone this season. If you don’t want to pay up for Gronkowski, take a chance on Rudolph possibly scoring a touchdown in this game.

**DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS**

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations - Conference Championships

Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $3,800
FanDuel = $4,900

Eagles quarterback Nick Foles wasn’t overly impressive against the Falcons last week, throwing for 246 yards and no touchdowns. He gets a tough matchup Sunday against a Vikings defense that allowed the second-fewest net passing yards per game (192) and the fewest touchdown passes (13) in the league during the regular season. With six interceptions in their last four games, the Vikings defense has excellent value Sunday.

New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $3,500
FanDuel = $5,200

With Bortles struggling, the Patriots defense could be in line for a big performance. They don’t create a ton of turnovers, but they do have 18 sacks in their last three games. Bortles really struggled on the road during the regular season, throwing only six touchdown passes to go along with eight interceptions away from EverBank Field. That’s not a recipe for success against the Patriots, who are dominant at home.

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

by Chris Tierney - cstcst 0 Comments

*Chris Tierney – cstcst*

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

If you’re playing DFS this weekend don’t get fancy.  Who is going to win the game and how?  Answer these questions for yourself prior to constructing anything from a lineup perspective.  Making more than one lineup?  Alter who will win and how a bit and construct again, all while keeping a similar core lineup.

As Demarcus Robinson and Josh Hill demonstrated last weekend, roughly one obscure player POPS in each playoff game.  It will likely take having one of these guys on your squad to take down a large GPP.  Rostering players such as these are a true dart throw and the risk often outweighs the reward.  My dart throws this week are Vance McDonald and Corey Davis.  Both guys can make the big play and both have decent matchups.  The Jags have a great defensive backfield and are also adept at rushing the passer.  Quick hitting plays to the TE and RB are two ways to attach a defense like the Jaguars.  Vance McDonald made some big plays for the 49ers last season and has seen his role expand down the stretch after being injured for much of the season.  Corey Davis’s role continues to expand in the Titans passing game.  He had a serviceable game last weekend and faces another spotty secondary this week in a game where his offense will likely have to throw the football.

Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.

 

 

Atlanta (-3.5, 41) at Philadelphia

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

On paper, this sure looks like a 26-13 or thereabouts Falcons win.  They are a veteran-led group with an improving defense who is accustomed to the pressures of the playoffs.  Paper doesn’t mean much come kickoff.  This will be an interesting game and it will be roaring in Philly.  There are some interesting options here but this game isn’t where the majority of my focus will be this weekend.

DFS Chalk:  Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Zack Ertz, Devonta Freeman

DFS Value: Nick Foles, Nelson Agholor, Tevin Coleman, Mohamed Sanu, Jay Ajayi

 

Tennessee at New England (-14, 48)

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

This game has the opportunity to shoot out.  Will the real New England defense please stand up?  Statistically, they’ve been one of the worst units in the NFL this season but they’ve bowed their backs when it mattered most, allowing them to take the Division and home-field advantage yet again.  Tennessee’s pass defense has been a sieve which shines a light upon his Greatness and his favorite Tight End.  I think New England wins here, but I think it will be more difficult than many expect.  The Titans gained some confidence last weekend and I expect their offense to have some success.  I think there are a bunch of players worth rostering in this game.  Remember, Belichick likes to neutralize one aspect of his opponent’s offense.  That has to be the Tennessee running-game right?  #gametheory – Tennessee passing attack is interesting to me in GPP situations.  The return of Hogan should lighten the targets to Cooks here.

DFS Chalk: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, Delanie Walker, Derrick Henry  

DFS Value: Corey Davis, Eric Decker, James White, Rex Burkhead, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Rishard Matthews

 

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-7, 41)

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

Sunday should be the fun day for this weekends slate and kicks off with a very interesting matchup in Pittsburgh.  If Ryan Shazier were healthy, I’d think this was a slam dunk Steelers victory.  As we all now, he sadly is not (keep on getting well Ryan!), and the Steelers run defense has not looked the same.  They’ll copy the Bills blueprint and load the box with eight men.  Will Nathan Hackett trust Blake Bortles here?  Will they allow him to attack this Steelers defense down the field with Lee, Hurns and Westbrook?  That is likely their plan and without something like it, they’ll be cleaning out their lockers early next week.  The Steelers offense has the tough chore of the Jaguars defense.  The Jags will slow the Steelers down some here, but the Jags offense has to apply pressure to this Steelers team.  An upset here wouldn’t shock me but I think this is perhaps the most interesting matchup of the playoffs thus far and will be telling about the Steelers Championship hopes.

DFS Chalk: Big Ben, LeVeon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster

DFS Value: Vance McDonald, Dede Westbrook, Mercedes Lewis, Marqise Lee

 

New Orleans at Minnesota (-4.5, 46.5)

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

Like our Carolina | New Orleans call last week, this is the one with the best opportunity to shoot out and could be a thrilling final game to the weekend.  The Vikings are legit, but so are the Saints.  Both of these teams are formidable on both sides of the ball and both teams have offensive players who can score from anywhere on the field.  I prefer Minnesota here but as anyone who follows the NFL knows, the Saints offense is capable of moving 85 yards in two or three plays at any time.

DFS Chalk: Case Keenum, Adam Thielen, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara

DFS Value: Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Kyle Rudolph, Ted Ginn, Brandon Coleman, Josh Hill

 

Top GPP Stacks:

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

1a: Case Keenum, Jerick Mckinnon, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas

2a: Tom Brady, James White, Rob Gronkowski, Corey Davis

 

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations – Divisional Round

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner*

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations – Divisional Round

 

 

The NFL season is nearing a close as this will be the last weekend with at least four games on the schedule. There aren’t a lot of options to choose from for DFS, but there are several elite players still available. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.

**QUARTERBACKS**

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations - Divisional Round

Tom Brady vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $7,000
FanDuel = $8,800

Not only is Brady one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but he looks to have the best matchup at the position this week. The Titans managed to pull off the upset on Wild Card Weekend by beating the Chiefs, who lost yet another home playoff game. During the regular season, the Titans allowed the most passing touchdowns (27) of any team still alive this weekend. Brady has been excellent over 13 games in the Divisional Round in his career, throwing for 3,700 yards and 26 touchdowns. Look for him to have another big performance Saturday.

Matt Ryan vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $5,700
FanDuel = $7,700

Ryan threw 38 touchdowns and only seven interceptions in 2016, but took a step backward this year with only 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He again put forth a lackluster performance Wild Card Weekend against the Rams, throwing for just 218 yards and one touchdown. He never threw more than two touchdown passes in a game this season and had 11 games with one or no touchdowns. The Eagles were in the middle-of-the-pack this season in terms of passing defense, allowing 24 passing touchdowns and an average of 227 net passing yards per game. Ryan doesn’t have a high ceiling, but with many of the quarterbacks facing tough defenses this week, he’s still someone to consider.

Marcus Mariota vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $5,900
FanDuel = $7,500

Mariota had an extremely disappointing regular season, throwing only 13 touchdown passes to along with a career-high 15 interceptions. He did have five rushing touchdowns, but that still wasn’t enough to make him a viable fantasy option. He benefited from a bizarre play against the Chiefs last week where he caught his own deflected pass for a touchdown, leaving him with two touchdown passes in the game. That marked only the fourth time this season he has thrown for more than one score in a game. The Patriots could get up big early in this game, which would likely lead to extra passing opportunities for Mariota. If you are looking for a cheap option at quarterback, that kind of volume puts Mariota into the discussion.

**RUNNING BACKS**

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations - Divisional Round

Le’Veon Bell vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Heinz Field
DraftKings = $9,600
FanDuel = $9,400

Bell had another stellar regular season for the Steelers, surpassing 1,800 total yards for the third time in the last four seasons. He also set career-highs in rushing attempts (321), receptions (85) and rushing touchdowns (9). The Jaguars allowed an average of 116.3 rushing yards per game in the regular season, which is the most of any of the teams still in the playoffs. The Jaguars defense, in general, is no walk in the park, but Bell’s elite talent still makes him worth paying up for this week.

Dion Lewis vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium- Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $6,600
FanDuel = $7,600

Patriots running backs have been a source of frustration for fantasy owners in recent years, but Lewis stepped up to be a valuable option over the second half of this season. Over the last six games, he rushed for 510 yards and three touchdowns. He also received some work in the passing game, hauling in 18 receptions for 128 yards and two touchdowns over that same stretch. Rex Burkhead (knee) still doesn’t appear to be fully healthy, so he could be limited if he is able to suit up for Saturday. Even if he does play, Lewis can still provide value for your entry.

Derrick Henry vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $7,300
FanDuel = $6,700

Henry shined filling in for DeMarco Murray (knee) last weekend, rushing for 156 yards and one touchdown while also catching two passes for 35 yards. He carried the ball 23 times, marking only the second time he received at least 20 carries in a game this season. Murray has already been ruled out for the Divisional Round, leaving Henry as the main back for another week. There is the risk that this could turn into a game of catchup for the Titans offense, which would force them to pass more than normal in the second half. However, they will likely run a lot early to try and keep the ball out of Brady’s hands. Henry might not be able to duplicate his excellent performance from last week, but volume alone makes him someone to target at this price.

**WIDE RECEIVERS**

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations - Divisional Round

Julio Jones vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $7,900
FanDuel = $8,800

Jones had a great season in terms of receiving yards but again struggled to reach the end zone, scoring only three touchdowns this season. Two of the three came in one game against the Buccaneers, making his total look even worse. He wasted no time in the playoffs though, hauling in nine catches for 94 yards and one touchdown last week against a tough Rams defense. Jones has stepped up his game when it matters the most, scoring six touchdowns in seven playoff games for his career. With Antonio Brown forced to play against cornerback Jalen Ramsey of the Jaguars, Jones might be the better option to pay up for this week.

JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Heinz Field
DraftKings = $6,000
FanDuel = $7,000

Smith-Schuster finished the season strong, recording 21 catches for 332 yards and two touchdowns in the last three games. Two of those came with Brown injured, so Smith-Schuster may receive fewer targets with him expected to return this week. Even so, Brown has a tough matchup against Ramsey, so Smith-Schuster could still play a very big role in this game. The Steelers offense is much better at home as well, making Smith-Schuster someone to consider at this reasonable price.

Nelson Agholor vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $4,800
FanDuel = $6,400

Agholor had a breakout campaign this year, setting career-highs across the board. Much of that can be attributed to the stellar play of quarterback Carson Wentz (knee), who unfortunately is out for the rest of the season. Nick Foles is a competent backup, but his upside is limited at best. The good news is Agholor may have a favorable matchup as most of his receptions come in the middle of the field. Last week, the Falcons allowed Cooper Kupp, who also works over the middle of the field, to record eight receptions for 69 yards and one touchdown. If you want to take a chance on any of the Eagles wide receivers, Agholor might be the one to consider.

Eric Decker vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $3,800
FanDuel = $4,800

Decker only caught two of his five targets last week for 21 yards but salvaged his performance with a touchdown. The good news is that he received at least five targets for the sixth straight game. The Patriots did allow the third-most net passing yards per game (251) during the regular season, but a lot of that was due to teams trying to play catchup with the Patriots offense. It still counts the same for fantasy purposes, making Decker worth taking a chance on in tournament play considering how little he will cost you.

**TIGHT ENDS**

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations - Divisional Round

Rob Gronkowski vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $7,100
FanDuel = $8,500

The Titans struggled to defend tight ends during the regular season, allowing 853 receiving yards and five touchdowns to the position. They looked to be well on their way to getting lit up by Travis Kelce last week, who had 66 yards and one touchdown before leaving in the second quarter with a concussion. Gronkowski is the most expensive tight end by far this week, but he could feast in this game.

Delanie Walker vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $5,000
FanDuel = $6,200

Walker played well against the Chiefs in the first round, catching six of eight targets for 74 yards. He had another excellent season for the Titans as one of Mariota’s favorite targets, totaling at least 800 receiving yards for the fourth straight year. Like Decker, he could benefit from extra volume if the Titans get down big early and have to turn things over to their passing attack. If you don’t want to pay up for Gronkowski, Walker also has upside.

**DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS**

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations - Divisional Round

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Heinz Field
DraftKings = $3,800
FanDuel = $5,300

Blake Bortles did not play well against the Bills last week and actually had more rushing yards (88) than passing yards (87) in the game. He completed only 52.2% of his passes in the first playoff game of his career. He gets a much tougher opponent in the Steelers this week, who tied for the fourth-fewest net passing yards allowed per game (201) during the regular season. They not only held teams to 20 passing touchdowns but were also able to generate 16 interceptions. This could be an ugly performance from Bortles, making the Steelers defense an excellent option for your entry.

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
DraftKings = $2,900
FanDuel = $4,600

The Vikings defense was excellent this season, allowing the second-fewest net passing yards per game (192) and the second-fewest rushing yards per game (83.6) in the league. It’s not easy picking against quarterback Drew Brees in the playoffs, but the Vikings limited him and the Saints offense to 19 points in Week 1 this season. The Steelers defense is certainly the safer bet this week, but the Vikings are also worth considering if you need to save a little money at defense.

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

* Cesar Becerra *

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17

As I prefaced the article last week, the final two weeks of the NFL season are often the toughest to digest from a DFS perspective. Last week we didn’t see any teams rest any of their star players, but this week we have an entirely different scenario. We’ve already received reports that the Steelers, Rams, Eagles, Chiefs, and potentially the Vikings and Jaguars are all resting their starters.

We have a few teams like the Vikings, Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Seahawks, Patriots, Steelers,  Ravens, Chargers, Titans, and Bills all still fighting for either their playoff lives of their playoff positioning. Here is a thorough look at what the Week 17 playoff scenarios look like.

 

Vegas

As you’d expect with all the late news about teams sitting their star players we’ve seen a lot of movement within the Vegas lines. The largest line movement of the week was a 10 point swing with the 49ers going from +6.5 underdogs to a -3.5 favorite. The following are the biggest shifts in the Vegas lines Browns (+14.5 to 7), Colts ( +o to -5.5), Cowboys (+1 to -3), Seahawks (-7.5 to -10), and Jags (+5 to +3).

Despite the line movements, there are still seven teams that are more than a touchdown favorite, the Patriots (-16.5), Vikings (-13), Seahawks (-10), Ravens (-10), Chargers (-7.5), Steelers & Saints (-7). Most of these teams also sit with the highest implied team total starting with the Patriots (30). Followed by Saints (28.25), Vikings (26.25), Ravens (25), Lions (24.74), Chargers (24.75), Falcons (24.5), Seahawks (24.25), and 49ers (23.25).

There aren’t many games with incredibly high over/under with only two games sitting with a game total over 45, (NO @ TB 49.5) and (ATL @ CAR 45). There are 8 games  (CIN @ BAL 40), (CHI @ MIN 39.5), (WAS @ NYG 39.5), (DAL @ PHI 39), (ARI @ SEA 38.5), (KC @ DEN 38.5), (CLE @ PIT 36.5) with game totals of 40 points or less, which leaves game stacks hard to come by for this slate.

This data was taken as of Friday afternoon, but as always, you should always check back at Vegas Insiders on Sunday morning.

Quarterbacks

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17 - Lineuplabs.com

Russell Wilson (DK $6,900) – Wilson might be the safest play at quarterback this week, and unfortunately, he doesn’t come cheap as he is the highest priced quarterback on the slate. But with all these secondary players playing this week, there is a ton of value on this slate. Wilson checks the all the boxes you would ask for during week 17. He has a decent team total (24.25), is playing as a home favorite, and is playing for their playoff lives. He’s facing the Cardinals who rank 8th in aFPA, but Wilson has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league following the Seahawks’ bye this season.

Jimmy Garoppolo (DK $6,700) –  At this point, nothing else can be said other than Jimmy G is the GOAT. He is coming off of a week where he destroyed the best defense in the league by completing 70% of his passes. He has exceeded his value in 3 of his first 4 starts with the 49ers and now faces the Rams who will likely be rolling out second stringers. The matchup doesn’t look great on paper (Rams rank 5th in aFPA vs. QB), but the 49ers offense is white hot right now and if the Rams most of their starters, look for Garoppolo to have a field day to ride into the offseason with a perfect 7-0 record as a starter.

Patrick Mahomes (DK $4,700) – After the news broke that Andy Reid was going to rest Alex Smith in the final regular season game, Mahomes immediately became the best value play at the quarterback position. During the preseason, Mahomes completed  63% his 54 passes for 390 yards and four touchdowns and no interceptions. He also showed his athleticism that we saw so much in college with 8 rushes for 44 yards. I’ve noted in the past that the Broncos secondary is not as scary as they used to be (16th in aFPA) and have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns in the league (29). Mahomes will be the chalk for people paying down at QB

Cash:

R. Wilson, J. Garoppolo, C. Newton,  P. Mahomes, K. Cousins, P. Mahomes

GPP:

(all of above), M. Stafford, P. Rivers, T. Taylor, M. Ryan, J. Brissett

Running backs

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17 - Lineuplabs.com

Alvin Kamara (DK $7,900) – With the news that Bell and Gurley are sitting the high tier at running back is very thin. I also expect Kareem Hunt (7,600), Leonard Fournette (7,100), and potentially Melvin Gordon (7,400) to all sit or be very limited so I will be staying away from them. That makes Kamara my favorite high priced back. Kamara has seen his price dip below 8k for the first time since in five weeks, which is appropriate given that he hasn’t met salary expectations in 3 of the last 4 games. This week the Saints still have an opportunity to clinch the division and are going up against the Bucs who rank 21st in aFPA against running backs. Kamara already destroyed the Bucs back in week 9 when he put up 32.2 DK points and totaled 2 touchdowns with 152 yards.

Kenyan Drake (DK $7,200) – I surprisingly haven’t heard many people talking up Drake this week, so it seems that I will be overexposed to the field this week. Drake has crushed value in 4 of his past 5 games and last week he only got 13 touches because of the game flow. This week the Dolphins are at small underdogs (+2.5) at home against the Bills. The Bills are dead last in aFPA, and Drake smashed them two weeks ago for 23.3 DK points and 113 total yards with one score. Drake is coming in as a sneaky tournament play. I’m not sure if I can play him in cash given the uber chalk  Dion Lewis is $400 cheaper, but I like him as a pivot for tournaments.

Derrick Henry (DK $5,500) – Henry is finally expected to work as the Titans’ featured back with DeMarco Murray expected to either be limited or inactive with an MCL sprain. Football fans have long been waiting for the former Heisman trophy winner to get a full workload and he appears in line for that against the Jags who have a run funnel defense, ranking 25th in aFPA vs. running backs and 9th in aFPA vs. quarterbacks. Henry is the chalk for value running backs this week.

Cash:

A. Kamara, D. Lewis, M. Ingram, C. McCaffrey, D. Henry

GPP:

(all of above), K. Drake, E. Elliott, C. Hyde, A. Collins, J. Williams

Wide Receivers

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17 - Lineuplabs.com

Julio Jones (DK $8,200) – Julio comes in as the chalk this week at wide receiver.  He’s averaging at least 7 targets the past 16 games and is going up against the Panthers who rank 30th in aFPA. In Julio’s first time facing the Panthers, he went off for 20.8 DK points with 6 catches for 118 yards. In a must-win game for the Falcons, look for Matt Ryan to force feed Julio like he did last week against the Saints. Julio will be the highest owned receiver, but I don’t mind pivoting to Keenan Allen against the Raiders (22nd aFPA vs. WR) if you’re willing to eat the ownership on Julio.

TY Hilton (DK $5,900) – Hilton is the other chalk wide receiver. He’s coming off of a 6 catch, 100-yard performance against the Ravens who are a top 10 team against defending wide receivers. Hilton now gets the Texans who are dead last in aFPA to wide receivers. Earlier this season Hilton torched the Texans for 37.5 DK points on 5 catches for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns. Hilton has 29 targets in the past 4 weeks of tough matchups (Baltimore (12), Broncos (7), Bills (4), & Jags (6). He is 48 yards shy of his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season, so I expect Brissett to feed him the ball.

Randall Cobb (DK $4,700) – With the reports that Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson will be out week 17, that makes Cobb the new number 1 target for Brett Hundley. Cobb has 29 targets in the past 3 weeks, and the supporting cast will feature Geronimo Allison (3,200) and Michael Clark (3,000). Cobb should be a lock to see double-digit targets and goes up against the Lions who rank 26th in aFPA.

Cash:

J. Jones, K. Allen, A. Green, T. Hilton, M. Goodwin, D. Baldwin, M. Jones, M. Thomas

GPP:

(all of above), J. Crowder, R. Anderson, R. Cobb, J. Doctson, W. Fuller, D. Amendola

Tight End

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17

Rob Gronkowski (DK $7,000) – Gronk earns a $2M bonus if he accomplishes either of these stats. 11 catches for 80 on the season or 116 yards to reach 1,200 for the season. #NarrativeStreet.

Greg Olsen (DK $5,600) – Greg Olsen has seen a total of 18 targets in his last two games since returning from injured reserve. In that span, he has 12 catches for 143 yards and 1 touchdown. This week he faces the Falcons in a pivotal game for the Panthers to clinch the division. Olsen could see anywhere between 6-10 targets against the Falcons who rank 14th in aFPA.

Vance McDonald (DK $2,700) – In the past two games where McDonald was active, he has seen 11 targets for 8 catches and 104 yards. McDonald has worked his way into becoming the primary pass catcher over Jesse James and faces the Browns who rank 27th in aFPA to opposing tight ends. In a game that doesn’t feature Ben, Brown, or Bell, Landry Jones could check down to McDonald often.

Cash:

R. Gronkowski, G. Olsen, J. Doyle, C. Clay

GPP:

(all of above), J. Graham, E. Ebron

Defense

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17

Seattle Seahawks (DK $3,400) – I like the Seattle defense to step up big at home in a must-win game against Drew Stanton. They aren’t quite the same legion of boom that they were a few years ago, but they are coming off of their best performance of the season (20 DK points) with 3 turnovers. Stanton hasn’t been awful but did throw 2 interceptions last week against the putrid Giants secondary.

Cash:

Patriots, Seahawks, 49ers

GPP:

Ravens, Vikings, Chiefs

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17

by Chris Durell 0 Comments

*Chris Durell*

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17

 

Welcome to the craziness that is Week 17 in the NFL. There are teams that are locked into their playoff spots or have nothing to play for at all and could very well sit their starters. Even if some players don’t sit all together, they could be limited to a couple quarters at most. Be sure to check out all the information available on Twitter or by a simple Google search before locking in your lineups as this article is written mid-week. Let’s jump in and take a look at each Tier for the seven-game early slate on Sunday.

 Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17

Tier 1

Ezekiel Elliott returned last week and rushed for 94 yards and picked up an additional 21 yards through the air but unfortunately, the Cowboys lost and were eliminated from the playoffs. This muddies the waters for Week 17 as it is unclear how much usage he will get and then add the tough matchup vs. the Eagles defense that ranks 4th in DVOA vs. the rush and 3rd in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs.

DeAndre Hopkins received his second-lowest target share of the season(6) but still managed to make a ridiculous catch in the endzone to pick up 16.5 fantasy points. This week he gets an elite matchup vs. the Colts who have allowed the third-most passing yards per game(254.8) this season and rank 23rd in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. I am also less concerned with his usage as both teams have been out of the playoffs for some time now and it hasn’t stopped him at all.

The Patriots are locked into the playoffs and have wrapped up the division but still have one game left to lock down home-field advantage through the playoffs with a win so I am expecting another big game from Gronk. He has scored 15 or more DK points in four straight games with three of those performances exceeding 25 points and now faces a horrendous Jets defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass and 24th in DK points per game allowed to tight ends. He could be the highest owned player in this tier but also may have the biggest upside.

The Vikings have also locked up their division but have a big game on Sunday as the Rams, Saints, and Panthers are all breathing down their neck for that #2 seed and a first-round bye. Adam Thielen has been quiet over the last two weeks with just five catches for 54 yards but is having a big season overall with 1,215 yards and could be low owned this week considering he is facing a Bears team that has been pretty good against wideouts ranking 14th in DK points per game. Don’t overlook he and Case Keenum’s ability to produce big-time fantasy points as Thielen moves all over the field and can exploit matchups.

Top Targets in this Tier – Rob Gronkowski, Adam Thielen

Tier 2

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17

Marvin Jones has not scored a touchdown or broke 100 yards since Thanksgiving vs. the Vikings and has seen some decline down the stretch as he has only been targeted 14 times over the last three games and tallied double-digit fantasy points just once. Despite neither team in this game having anything to play for, Jones does get a nice matchup vs. the Packers defense that has allowed the 11th most passing yards per game(232.3) and ranks 25th in DK points per game to wideouts.

It’s a similar situation for T.Y. Hilton as the Colts and Texans have been eliminated and on to next season. Hilton did breakout in a tough matchup last week vs. the Ravens catching six of his 12 targets for his first 100-yard game since week 9 against none other than these Houston Texans who rank 28th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. Look for Hilton to finish the year off strong.

Speaking of the Texans, it was JuJu Smith Schuster getting to them late on Christmas day as he caught six of his seven targets for 75 yards and a touchdown. With Antonio Brown still sidelined with an injury both Martavis Bryant and Smith-Schuster should continue to see high usage in the Steelers defense. The other thing he has going is that the Steelers can still grab a first-round bye with a win and a New England loss. This week they get a winless Browns team that sits mid-pack in passing yards per game allowed (230.7) but rank 29th overall when looking at DVOA vs. the pass. Fire up JuJu with confidence this week.

Another safe play in this tier is Dion Lewis at the running back position. With James White and Rex Burkhead both out last week, Lewis saw the bulk of the action out of the backfield and crushed for fantasy rushing for 129 yards and a touchdown 35.3 fantasy points. Burkhead for sure won’t be back this week and White is still questionable early in the week meaning Lewis could once again be the feature back for the Pats who are huge 15.5 point favorites. The Jets have been pretty good against the run ranking 12th in DVOA and 15th in DK points per game allowed to running backs but the game script in fully in Lewis’s favor here and he should once again see 20+ carries which presents a high floor and ceiling.

Top Targets in this Tier – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Dion Lewis

Tier 3

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17

Tom Brady has been a big disappointment for fantasy lately and a lot of it can be attributed to the run game that has averaged 121.5 yards per game over their last four games. In those four games, Brady has not topped 17 fantasy points once and may not again this week as the Patriots are currently huge 15.5 point home favorites vs. the Jets and will likely lean on Dion Lewis once again.

Kirk Cousins is coming off his best game in over a month throwing for 299 yards and three touchdowns against the Broncos and has topped 15 fantasy points in three of his last four weeks. He has also thrown for multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games. The running game in Washington has been hit hard with injuries which should once again force Cousins to throw it up 30+ times and he gets an elite matchup to do it against the Giants who rank 31st overall in DK points per game to quarterbacks.

Even without Antonio Brown, Big Ben threw two touchdowns on Christmas day making it seven straight games with multiple touchdown passes. Like I mentioned earlier, the Steelers are still playing for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs but without Brown again this week and an elite running back in the backfield(Le’Veon Bell), we shouldn’t expect high volume from the passing game which will limit Big Ben’s upside.

Matthew Stafford hasn’t flashed much upside since having his throwing hand stepped on earlier in December against the Ravens. He has hit double-digit fantasy points in every single game this season but has only hit the 20-point threshold once in his last five games. There has been no word nor is it expected that the Lions will rest their starters against the Packers and that is good news as the matchup is favorable as the Packers rank 25thin DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Back in Week 9, Stafford completed 26 of 33 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Packers.

The Eagles snuck out a win on Christmas vs. a weak Raiders defense but it was almost all credited to the defense as Foles came back to Earth after a four-touchdown performance the week before. He completed just 50% of his passes for 163 yards and a touchdown. With the win, the Eagles locked up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs so it is unclear how much run they will give Foles in a division game vs. the Cowboys. If word comes out that they will let him play the entire game to prepare for the playoffs, fire him up as the Cowboys rank 21st in DK points per game allowed to QB’s and Foles has a ton of weapons to help him hit value(Ertz, Jeffery, Agholor, Ajayi).

Top Targets in this Tier – Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17

Tier 4

 Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17 - Lineuplab.com

The fourth tier is a very interesting one considering four of the five quarterbacks have nothing to play for as their teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Only the Vikings and Case Keenum have something to play for as they look to lock up the #2 seed and a first-round bye. As of Wednesday, the four other quarterbacks are slated to start for their respective teams but Eli Manning seems to have the biggest question mark as to how much playing time he will see.

Dak Prescott gets a tough matchup on paper vs. the Eagles who rank 6th in DVOA vs. the pass and 12th in DK points per game allowed to the position. With the Eagles having already locked up the #1 seed there is a chance they could rest some starters in the second half which would open up Prescott’s upside if he was to play the entire game.

Brett Hundley will get the start and likely play the entire game but the knock on him this week is that two of his top receiving options are dealing with injuries. Devante Adams remains in the league’s concussion protocol while Jordy Nelson was injured in Saturday night’s game and has yet to practice this week. The matchup is also not high on the list as the Lions rank 16th in DVOA vs. the pass and 14th in DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Proceed with caution.

Jacoby Brissett easily gets the best matchup in the tier facing a Texans defense that ranks 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and dead last in DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. The issue with him is that the upside really hasn’t been there as he has just three touchdowns over his last four games while averaging 11.9 DK points per game. If you are planning on using Brissett in this tier, be sure to pair him with his top target, T.Y. Hilton, in Tier 2.

Top Target in this Tier – Case Keenum, Jacoby Brissett

Tier 5

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17 - Lineuplabs.com

Tier 5, which consists of five wide receivers, start with Stefon Diggs who has not only scored in back to back games but has also been much better at home this season. He is averaging just over 85 yards per game(44 on the road) and has scored five touchdowns(2 on the road) while averaging 20.9 DK points per game(9.9 on the road). The matchup is not the greatest against the Bears who rank 14th in DVOA vs. the pass but the good news is that Diggs has also seen an uptick in targets over his last four games with 7.3 per game compared to his 5.9 season average.

As a mirror opposite, Brandin Cooks gets a great matchup this week against the Jets who rank 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass and 19th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. The issue here is that he has trended down with his targets lately with an average of 5.5 over the last four games and the game script will most definitely not be in his favor as the Pats are huge 15.5 point favorites.

After scoring in back to back games, Alshon Jeffery recorded his worst game of the season catching zero balls on just two targets against the Raiders. He and Nick Foles have not shown the same chemistry as he and Carson Wentz did for most of the season. The Eagles have also locked up the #1 seed and although he will start the game, it is unclear how many snaps he and the rest of the starters will see against the Cowboys. Best to fade Jeffery here.

Jamison Crowder played with a hamstring injury last week and seen just 45% of the snaps but came through catching all four of his targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. He has been the most targeted player on the Redskins this season(6.8 per game) and with an extra week to get back to full health should be able to exploit an excellent matchup vs. the Giants who rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 21st in DK points per game allowed to wideouts.

Martavis Bryant also gets an upside matchup in Week 17 against a Browns team that ranks 29th in DVOA vs. the pass. He should also see some added target share this week with Antonio Brown still sidelined with an injury while the Steelers are still fighting with the Patriots for the #1 seed in the AFC. This is one tier that I will be splitting a few a players in multi-lineup contests.

Top Targets in this Tier – Jamison Crowder, Stefon Diggs, Martavis Bryant

Tier 6

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17 - Lineuplabs.com

Zach Ertz has been the most reliable option in this tier averaging 7.2 targets and 15.5 DK points per game but will be hard to trust this week as the Eagles have wrapped up the #1 seed and it’s unclear how much the starters will play this week. The same sentiment holds true for Ertz’ teammate Nelson Agholor who could also see limited snaps. Another big question mark in this tier is the status of Sterling Shepard as he was not present at practice on Thursday and with the Giants having nothing to play for, it is unlikely he sees the field and if he does it will likely be limited snaps.

I talked about the Lions matchup this week with Marvin Jones and the same holds true for Golden Tate who has seen steady targets all season(7.5 per game) and sits with 899 yards and four touchdowns. I do prefer Jones slightly as he gets the better matchup vs. Damarious Randall while Tate, in the slot, will see quite a bit of Morgan Burnett who is rated quite a bit higher than Randall over at PFF. Both are definitely in play if Stafford is going to be playing the entire game.

Like I have mentioned, the Eagles will likely sit most of their starters, at least in the second half which presents an excellent matchup for the Cowboys this week and Vegas agrees as they have Dallas sitting as road favorites. Dak Prescott even mentioned he will be damned to finish the season after last week’s performance so I fully expect the offense to play the entire game and try and end 2017 on a high note. Roll out Dez with confidence.

Josh Gordon has continued to trend down since his return and posted his worst game of the season(4 games) last week in Chicago with just two catches on eight targets for 19 yards. He is getting the targets(9 per game) but gets an even tougher matchup this week facing a Steelers team that ranks 7th in DVOA vs. the pass and DK points per game allowed to wideouts. More bad news as the Steelers also have the #1 seed to play for so you can expect a strong performance against their division rivals.

With Aaron Jones not practicing this week and doubtful to play in Sunday’s finale, it opens up the workload for Jamaal Williams once again making him a nice target this week. He has flashed big upside since taking over as the Packers top back mid-season and posted one 100+ yard game and scored in three straight games from Week 12-14. He will likely see 20+ touches this week in a terrific matchup vs. the Lions who rank 28th in DVOA vs. the rush and 31st in DK points per game allowed to running backs.

Top Targets in this Tier – Golden Tate, Dez Bryant, Jamaal Williams

Tier 7

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17 - Lineuplabs.com

Jordan Howard has been a boom or bust play all season.  He has flashed big upside as he has rushed for 100 or more yards five times and scored multiple touchdowns three times but also scored 10 or fewer DK points seven times. I have a strong feeling that the latter will be the case in Week 17 as he gets a terrible matchup against a Vikings defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game(87.1) and fewest DK points per game to running backs. Probably best to fade him here. Robby Anderson is also on my fade list in this tier as he is not only questionable with an illness but has also done nothing since Josh McCown went down in Week 13. Lamar Miller has been a huge disappointment this season as he has not topped 75 yards once and comes in with three straight weeks without getting to 10 DK points and was out-touched and out-performed by Alfred Blue on Christmas day. Safe to say Miller is also a fade in Week 17.

After starting off the tier with three fades it doesn’t leave many options but there is some value with the Vikings players this week as they have the #2 seed in the NFC to play for and the starters will likely play the entire game unless it gets out of hand. The matchup for the running backs is a tough one as the Bears have allowed the ninth-fewest yards per game(105.5) and rank 9th in DK points per game allowed to the position. Because of this, I lean Jerick McKinnon who has been far and away the receiving back this season with 4.5 targets per game compared to Murray’s 1.1 per game. On the season, McKinnon has 51 receptions for 421 yards and a touchdown. As for Kyle Rudolph, he has been dealing with n ankle injury all December and was once again limited in practice this week. On top of that, he gets a tough matchup as the Bears rank 12th in DK points per game allowed to tight ends. For receiving options, I prefer Diggs and Thielen for the Vikings. SKOL!

I talked about Jacoby Brissett and T.Y. Hilton as a nice stack earlier and another option on the Colts this week is tight end, Jack Doyle. He is tied with Hilton for the team lead in targets(6.9) and gets a terrific matchup vs. the Texans who have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game(246.3) and rank 26th in DK points per game to the tight end position.

Top Targets in this Tier – Jerick McKinnon, Jack Doyle

Tier 8

 Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17 - Lineuplabs.com

If Duke Johnson gets in a full practice this week after being limited Wednesday he makes an intriguing option as he has been a nice PPR back all season. He is fourth in receiving among running backs with 68 receptions for 618 yards and three touchdowns. Will Fuller cannot be trusted as he has fallen off a cliff since Deshaun Watson went down before Week 9. Bilal Powell is a nice option here in this tier as he is closing his season out on a high note with touchdowns in three of his last four games and coming off his second 100+ yard game last week vs. the Chargers.

The Colts may not have anything to play for in Week 17 but Frank Gore has a milestone to hit. Via Evan Silva on Twitter:

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17 - Lineuplabs.com

I fully expect the Colts to feed him the ball this week. Another option who is fully in play here is Randall Cobb of the Packers. With Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams very doubtful to play it will open up a ton of targets and Cobb could very well be the beneficiary giving him a high floor and ceiling vs. the Lions.

Top Targets in this Tier – Bilal Powell, Frank Gore, Randall Cobb

 

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!