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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/13/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

July special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout

All 15 games Friday start in the evening, leaving one of the last big slates in DFS before the All-Star break. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/13/18

Rick Porcello vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $9,600
DraftKings = $9,800

Porcello already has 11 wins for the Red Sox, matching his total from all of 2017. Having a stellar lineup behind him certainly helps, but he’s also made significant improvements. He had a 1.40 WHIP and a 1.7 HR/9 last year, but this season he has a 1.17 WHIP and a 0.9 HR/9. His 3.58 ERA is supported by a 3.48 FIP and a career-high 22.7% strikeout rate. He also pitches deep into games, logging at least six innings in all but four starts. The Blue Jays have a .749 OPS at home this year, but only a .703 OPS on the road. Porcello has already faced them twice this season, allowing six runs (five earned) and recording 14 strikeouts across 13.2 innings. On a night that is lacking many top-tier pitchers, Porcello is one of the best options available.

Brad Keller vs. Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $6,400

The Royals pitching staff has been a mess this season as their 5.35 team ERA is worst in the majors. Keller has been one of their few bright spots, though, recording a 2.52 ERA, 3.38 FIP and a 1.25 WHIP in 28 appearances, seven of which were starts. He doesn’t have much strikeout upside with a 5.2 K/9, but he’s only allowed one home run in 60.2 innings. He allowed 0.5 HR/9 during his career in the minors, so look for this to be a trend that continues. The White Sox have scored the sixth-fewest runs (365) in baseball and lost one of their hottest hitters to injury in Avisail Garcia, leaving Keller as a cheap option to consider in tournament play.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/13/18

Brandon Belt vs. Edwin Jackson, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,400

Jackson continues to find a way to work himself into a major league rotation. He’s made three starts since joining the Athletics, giving up just six runs (five earned) in 18.1 innings. It’s hard to have much confidence in him, though, since he has finished with an ERA of 5.21 or higher in three of the last four years. Belt has a .410 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, so don’t be surprised if he gives Jackson trouble.

Carlos Santana vs. Wei-Yin Chen, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $4,000

Chen has been awful with a 6.14 ERA. His FIP is a little better at 5.09, but it’s still the highest of his career. He hasn’t been able to keep runners off base with a 1.55 WHIP and he has already allowed 11 homers in 66 innings. Strikeouts have been hard to come by for him as well with a 6.7 K/9. Santana hasn’t exactly thrived in his first season with the Phillies, either, but he’s priced low enough to be a viable option for your entry.

Others to consider: Wilson Ramos (catcher) and Yonder Alonso (first base)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/13/18

Ozzie Albies vs. Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $5,200

Albies is red hot again as he is 38-for-91 (.418) with four home runs, 13 RBI and 20 runs scored in his last 20 games. He’s slowed down from the torrid home run pace he was on earlier this season, but it’s very encouraging to see him adjust and come out of the slump he was mired in from the middle of May through the middle of June. Godley allows a ton of batters to reach base with a 1.56 WHIP, so look for Albies to continue his hot streak Friday.

Rougned Odor vs. Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $4,500

Odor has finally shown signs of life again, going 14-for-44 (.318) with three home runs in his last 12 games. His overall average has improved to .242 as a result, but he only has six home runs. He has a lot of catching up to do if he is going to hit at least 30 homers for the third straight season. Cobb has a 1.62 WHIP and a 1.7 HR/9 in his first season with the Orioles, making Odor an excellent option at a reduced price, especially on FanDuel.

Others to consider: Dee Gordon and Jonathan Schoop

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/13/18

Jose Ramirez vs. Domingo German, New York Yankees
Stadium – Progressive Field
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $5,800

Ramirez homered against Thursday and has four home runs in his last three games. The fact that it came off of Luis Severino was especially impressive since Severino has only allowed 0.7 HR/9. He’ll face a much easier opponent in German on Friday, who has had problems keeping hitters inside the park with a 1.7 HR/9.

Mike Moustakas vs. James Shields, Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,600

The Royals have already started to trade off some veterans and it makes sense that they look to move Moustakas as well. His batting average has regressed from .272 last season to .256 this year, but he’s still provided plenty of power with 19 home runs. Even though the Royals don’t score much, he still has 58 RBI. Lefties give him trouble, but he has a .358 wOBA against right-handed pitchers.

Others to consider: Nolan Arenado and Travis Shaw

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/13/18

Trevor Story vs. Christian Bergman, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $5,300

Bergman made one start for the Mariners back in May but has mostly pitched in the minors this season. The fact that he had a 4.78 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP at Triple-A doesn’t really bode well for his chances pitching at Coors Field on Friday. Story mashes at home and is one of several Rockies’ hitters to target for your entry.

Elvis Andrus vs. Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $4,100

Andrus only has 153 plate appearances this season due to injury, but he’s been a disappointment with just two home runs and one stolen base. After attempting 35 steals last year, he only has two attempts this season. His strikeout rate is down and his .281 BABIP is well below his .313 career mark, so he does have room for improvement in the second half. Considering Cobb’s struggles, this might be just what he needs to get back on track.

Others to consider: Xander Bogaerts and Scott Kingery

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/13/18

Charlie Blackmon vs. Christian Bergman, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $4,200
DraftKings = $5,500

Blackmon has historically hit about the same amount of home runs on the road as he has at home, but he has a career .343 batting average at Coors Field compared to .263 on the road. He also has a career .371 wOBA against righties, making him an outfielder worth paying up for versus Bergman.

Carlos Gonzalez vs. Christian Bergman, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,700

As we continue to target lefties against Bergman, Gonzalez presents another excellent option at a favorable price. He’s not nearly the hitter that he was in his prime, but he’s quietly batting .275 with 10 home runs in 73 games. He also has a .357 wOBA against right-handers.

Steven Duggar vs. Edwin Jackson, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $2,300
DraftKings = $3,700

Duggar only had four home runs in Triple-A this year before being called up, but he did slug 27 doubles to go along with a .354 OBP. He’s not likely to play much against left-handed pitching, but he should be in the lineup against the right-handed Jackson. He could be worth the gamble in tournament play based on the salary relief he can provide for your budget.

Others to consider: Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

There are a lot of teams off Thursday, leaving only nine games for the main evening slate in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18

Tyler Skaggs vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $10,400

Skaggs is on pace for the best season of his career, posting a 3.07 ERA and 3.19 FIP through eight starts. He had finished with a WHIP of at least 1.39 in back-to-back seasons but has been able to cut that down to 1.21 this year. He’s allowed a .300 BABIP and a 37.1% hard-hit rate, which are both either at or higher than his career marks, so he’s not exactly getting lucky either. His 9.4 K/9 this season has been aided by the fact that he has thrown a first-pitch strike to 65.8% of the batters that he has faced and a career-best 10.4% swinging strike rate. His price is climbing, but he’s certainly one of the best options Thursday.

Chad Bettis vs. San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $7,200
DraftKings = $7,400

Bettis’ 3.12 ERA looks nice, but he’s been lucky with a 4.35 FIP and a .257 BABIP allowed that is over 50 percentage points lower than his career mark. He doesn’t have an overpowering arsenal either with just a 6.6 K/9 for his career. Like many pitchers, Bettis struggles in Coors field with a 5.37 ERA there for his career compared to a 4.29 ERA on the road. Those splits have been even more drastic this year with a 6.89 ERA in three home starts and a 1.35 ERA in five games on the road. Although his strikeout upside isn’t great, Bettis could be worth the risk in tournament play based on his price.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18

Eric Hosmer vs. Chad Kuhl, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – PNC Park
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $3,800

After recording only two home runs and four RBI in his first 26 games, Hosmer has picked up his production with four home runs and 12 RBI in his last 14 contests. He’s only batted .231 over that 14-game stretch, but that’s mostly because of his abnormally low .205 BABIP. Hosmer has followed up his stellar .400 wOBA against right-handed pitchers in 2017 with a .377 mark this season, making him a great option against Kuhl, who really struggles against lefties.

Matt Olson vs. Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,600

Olson’s power numbers are way down, following up his .652 slugging percentage in 2017 with only a .404 mark this year. His strikeout rate sits at 30.4%, which certainly isn’t helping his cause any. He is only batting .238, which is a bit scary when you consider he has a favorable .323 BABIP. Despite all his struggles, he still has a .359 wOBA against righties this year and won’t face an overpowering one in Sanchez on Thursday, so he could provide upside considering his price.

Others to consider: Justin Smoak (first base) and James McCann (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18

Jed Lowrie vs. Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,100

Lowrie has cooled off some after his torrid start, but he’s still batting .296 in May. His power numbers are on the decline with one double and three home runs this month, but that was to be expected considering his career .414 slugging percentage.  He hit righties well last year with a .353 wOBA and has been even better with a .423 wOBA this season, making him another Athletics’ hitter who could provide value against Sanchez.

Rougned Odor vs. James Shields, Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $3,100

Odor batted only .204 last year, but he provided plenty of power with 30 home runs. Injuries have limited him to just 16 games this season, but he’s still looking for his first homer. Shields doesn’t exactly have electric stuff anymore with a 5.44 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 5.3 K/9 this season and Odor does have more success against righties, so he may have some upside.

Others to consider: Ozzie Albies and Sean Rodriguez

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18

Nolan Arenado vs. Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $5,100

Samardzija is struggling, to say the least, recording a 6.94 ERA, 6.27 FIP and 1.71 WHIP across his first five starts. He’s had major control issues with a 5.8 BB/9 and has already allowed five home runs in just 23.1 innings. Things could get ugly for him again Thursday, especially against Arenado since he is 12-for-29 (.414) against him in his career.

Danny Valencia vs. David Price, Boston Red Sox
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,800

Price hasn’t pitched well since leaving his start against the Yankees April 11 with an injury, watching his ERA increase from 2.40 to 4.89 since. He’s pitched more than 5.2 innings only after that game and could be risky moving forward due to his battle with carpal tunnel syndrome. Valencia hits lefties well and is 13-for-22 (.591) against Price in his career.

Others to consider: Josh Donaldson and Matt Chapman

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18

Manny Machado vs. David Price, Boston Red Sox
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $5,600

Machado is a good player to target most nights unless he’s facing one of the true elite aces in the league. Not only is he batting a robust .342, but he also has 13 home runs and 11 doubles. He has hit Price well in his career too, going 11-for-37 (.297) with four home runs.

Jose Iglesias vs. Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $3,000

If you can make Machado work in your budget, he’s the option I prefer at shortstop. However, if you need to save some money at the position, Iglesias is someone to have on your radar. He has really struggled against righties with a .282 wOBA against them for his career but has a .328 wOBA against lefties. Gonzales has had troubles keeping runners off base with a 1.64 WHIP for his career, so Iglesias may be able to find his way on base a couple of times in this game.

Others to consider: Jean Segura and Marcus Semien

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18

Mookie Betts vs. Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $5,300
DraftKings = $5,800

I’ve already discussed a couple of Orioles’ hitters with favorable matchups in this game, but now it’s time to move to the other dugout with Betts. He’s been one of the elite hitters in all of baseball this year and even though Gausman is off to an encouraging start, Betts is 12-for-29 (.414) with three home runs against him in his career. Betts actually has more walks (four) than strikeouts (three) against Gausman.

Joey Gallo vs. James Shields, Chicago White Sox
Stadium = Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,300

When you play Gallo, it’s for his home run upside since he is only batting .201 for his career. This year has been no different with a .200 average and a 34.3% strikeout rate. The power is still there though and Shields has a HR/9 of at least 2.0 in back-to-back seasons, so Gallo could be worth the risk at this price.

Gerardo Parra vs. Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $3,300

Parra really struggles against lefties, but his wOBA for his career is almost 50 percentage points higher against righties. He’s not off to a great start this season with a .674 OPS, but facing Samardzija might be just what he needs since he is 12-for-20 (.400) with two home runs against him in his career.

Others to consider: Nomar Mazara and Franchy Cordero

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Advanced stats are important in any sport, but they have especially changed the way we look at baseball. One important advanced stat to consider when drafting your fantasy baseball squad is batting average on balls in play, also known a BABIP.

As defined by BaseballReference.com, BABIP, “measures what happens when the player puts the ball in play on the field.” The formula to calculate BABIP is (H-HR)/ (AB – SO – HR + SF).

In 2017, the league average batting average was .255. Historically, the league average BABIP is usually right around .300. Now, that doesn’t mean just because a hitter has a BABIP above or below .300 that they are in line for a correction in 2018. You want to compare their BABIP more with their career marks and also consider their skill sets. For example, a fast runner who hits a lot of ground balls could have a high BABIP simply because they are able to leg out base hits that other runners with normal speed would not be able to.

It is also important to consider the type of contact that a player is making, whether they hit a lot of fly balls or line drives. A player who hits more hard line drives can have a high BABIP because the fielders could have a more difficult time reaching the ball to record an out. A player who hits a lot of weak fly balls is going to have a lower BABIP because they aren’t leaving themselves with a great opportunity to reach base.

All of that being said, let’s take a look at a few players who had an abnormally high or low BABIP last season and discuss how to project their batting averages for this season.

 

Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Garcia not only hit a career-high .330 last season, but it left him with the third-highest batting averaging in the league behind Jose Altuve and Charlie Blackmon. That’s some pretty impressive company. However, Garcia is a career .277 hitter, which is an immediate red flag.

A closer look at Garcia’s numbers shows he had a .392 BABIP last year, which was the highest in baseball. That screams candidate for regression, especially when you consider his career BABIP is just .340. Garcia even struck out less last year with a 19.8% strikeout percentage, which is almost three percent lower than his career average. His line drive percentage was 24%, which was spot on with his career mark.

He is still a talented young player who could have a valuable fantasy season, but make sure you aren’t drafting him with the expectation that he will hit for that high of an average again this year.

Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Zimmerman has played in over 1,500 career games, which gives us an example sample size to work off of. After dealing with injuries the last few seasons, Zimmerman was able to largely stay healthy in 2017 and played in 144 games. He finished with a career-high 36 home runs and recorded at least 100 RBI for the third time in his career. He had a sparkling .303 batting average, which was especially high considering he hasn’t batted above .280 since 2012.

However, a lot of his success can be attributed to his performance in the first half of the season when he batted .345. It’s no coincidence that he had an extremely high BABIP of .364 during that same time frame. His career BABIP is .311, so it made much more sense that he had a BABIP of .306 during the second half of the season. While the decline in BABIP, Zimmerman’s batting average was just .269 in the second half.

Health is always a major concern if you are drafting Zimmerman, but remember that his excessively high BABIP in the first half led to an inflated batting average for the season overall.

Zack Cozart, Los Angeles Angels

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Cozart is the only player on this list to change teams this winter as he signed with the Angeles after playing his entire career with the Cincinnati Reds. Cozart had the best season of his career in 2017, hitting .297 with 24 home runs, 63 RBI and 80 runs scored. He was able to cash that in for a three-year, $38 million contract. With how slow the market has moved this winter, that was a significant deal.

Another alarm should go off with Cozart though as he is only a career .254 hitter. He did most of his damage in the first half, batting .316 with a .358 BABIP. To put that into perspective, his career BABIP is only .280. He experienced a significant regression in the second half, batting just .272 with a .252 BABIP.

Cozart did drastically improve his walk percentage to 12.2% last season, but his 26% line drive percentage was actually two percent lower than both of the previous two seasons. Buyer beware if you are drafting him based on his batting average last season.

Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Betts was one of the hottest names in fantasy baseball heading into last year after hitting .318 with 31 home runs, 113 RBI, 122 runs scored and 26 steals in 2016. Even though the Red Sox offense as a whole took a step backward in 2017, Betts still had great counting stats with 24 home runs, 102 RBI, 101 runs scored and 26 stolen bases.

Betts couldn’t completely deliver on his lofty fantasy expectations though because he batted only .264 for the season. His strikeout percentage, groundball to fly ball ratio and line drive percentage were all almost right on par with his career averages. The big difference is he had only a .268 BABIP last year after never finishing with one below .310 in his career. It was low throughout the season, showing very little improvement in the second half.

Betts has an extremely high upside in fantasy and could have just had one of those “unlucky” seasons in terms of his BABIP considering his career numbers. Expect improvement in the batting average department from him this year.

Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Machado is also one of the most coveted offense players in fantasy. Not only has he developed into a premier power hitter, but he had hit at least .278 in four straight seasons leading into 2017. Although he stole 20 bases in 2015, he has only stolen nine total bases in two seasons since.

Machado saw a significant decline in his batting average in 2017, finishing the season hitting just .259. Much of that can be attributed to a horrid first half where he batted just .230 in large part due to his .230 BABIP. He has a career .301 BABIP, so it’s no surprise that he improved to a .290 BABIP in the second half of the season. He batted .290 over that same stretch.

Machado will be dealing with a position change this year, moving from third base to his natural position at shortstop. However, one constant that should return this year with a normal BABIP is his high batting average.

Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Odor has become one of the premier power-hitting second basemen in baseball, slugging at least 30 home runs in back-to-back seasons. He does not do a great job getting on base though with only a 4.2% walk percentage. He has logged 1,212 at-bats in the last two seasons but has only walked 51 times. His swinging strikes percentage has increased in each season of his career, topping out at 20.8% in 2017.

While he doesn’t walk much, Odor had a batting average of at least .259 in each of his first three seasons. He struggled mightily in that department last year, batting just .204. Much of that can be attributed to his .224 BABIP, which was almost 60 points lower than any previous season of his career. His inability to get on base limits his fantasy value, but it’s highly unlikely that he will hit just over .200 again this season.