It wasn’t the prettiest of Week 1’s in the NFL with several teams searching to find a rhythm on offense. However, we still had some monster receiving performances, including surprising ones by Sammy Watkins and Marquise Brown. Who will be in the winning DFS lineups for Week 2?
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 13 – Wide Receivers
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
There are no more bye weeks left this season, leaving a packed schedule for Week 13 in the NFL. The Saints, Steelers, and Chargers all playing in primetime does take a few of the top-tier wide receivers out of the equation for the main Sunday slate in DFS, but there are still plenty of great options. Let’s dive into the position and highlight some players to consider, and avoid, as you craft your lineup. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,200
With their win over the Titans in Week 12, the Texans have now won each of their last eight games. Even though they pulled out the victory, Hopkins had a quiet performance by his standards. He only received six targets, which tied the mark for his fewest in a game this season. He did haul in five of them for 74 yards but failed to score a touchdown for the first time since Week 5.
The Texans scored 34 points against the Titans, but it wasn’t exactly a great matchup for Hopkins considering the Titans allow the eighth-fewest passing yards per game (230) in the league. Things swing much more in his favor against the Browns, who allow the fourth-most passing yards per game (284). With his stellar touchdown upside, Hopkins makes for a great option in cash contests despite his lofty price tag.
Tyreek Hill vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $9,100
There have been few regular season games as exciting as the matchup between the Chiefs and Rams was in Week 11. The two teams combined for an insane 105 points and Hill was certainly heavily involved in the action, catching 10 of 14 targets for 215 yards and two touchdowns. His 21.5 yards per reception actually marked the fifth time this season that he finished a game with at least 20 yards per reception.
The Chiefs have a lot of talented players, but Hill is one of the main reasons why their offense is so explosive. Not only does he have blazing speed, but he’s an excellent route runner. He already has 11 receiving touchdowns this year, which is only two away from tieing his mark from his first two seasons in the league, combined. The Raiders are tied for the second-most passing touchdowns allowed (25), leaving Hill with tremendous upside once again.
Adam Thielen vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $8,100
DraftKings = $8,000
After recording at least 100 receiving yards in each of his first eight games, Thielen had cooled off with 88 total receiving yards across two games heading into Week 12 against the Packers. That proved to be just the matchup that he needed to get back on track, catching eight of nine targets for 125 yards and a touchdown. In two games against the Packers this season, he had 20 receptions, 256 yards, and two touchdowns.
It was only a matter of time before Thielen got hot again, especially since his 124 targets are second in the league only to Julio Jones (125). Thielen has also taken a significant step forward in the touchdown department with eight of them this year after posting nine across the last two years, combined. The Patriots have allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game (270) to go along with 22 passing touchdowns, so don’t be surprised if Thielen comes away with another highly productive afternoon.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Julian Edelman vs. Minnesota Vikings
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $7,200
DraftKings = $7,100
The Patriots had no problem putting away the Jets in Week 12, which may have been part of the reason why Edelman received a season-low five targets. It should also be noted that this was tight end Rob Gronkowski’s first game since Week 8. Even with his lack of involvement, Edelman still came away with four receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown.
Edelman has only played in seven games this year, but he already has 61 targets and has been on the field for 88 percent of the Patriots offensive snaps. He even has three touchdowns, matching his mark from all of last season. The Patriots have their full complement of weapons right now, which is going to make things tough on opposing defenses. Even with more mouths to feed, Edelman is going to get enough targets to warrant consideration in tournament play.
D.J. Moore vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $5,600
With Devin Funchess (back) out for Week 12, Moore was on the field for 92 percent of the Panthers offensive snaps and received a season-high nine targets. He made the most of his opportunity, hauling in eight passes for 91 yards. His rookie campaign got off to a quiet start, but Moore has now received 22 targets across his last three games.
This has the potential to be a monster game from Moore. If Funchess is unable to return, Moore will again receive all the work he can handle. The Bucs have one of the worst secondaries in the league, allowing 274 passing yards per game to go along with a league-high 26 touchdowns through the air. He’s not overly expensive on either site, making Moore a prime target to outproduce his price point if Funchess sits.
Courtland Sutton vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $4,200
The Broncos scored 24 points against the Steelers last week, but Sutton was very quiet with one catch on three targets for 14 yards. The Broncos did most of their damage on the ground, which led Case Keenum to attempt just 28 passes. He wasn’t that accurate, either, with only 15 completions. If you’re looking for a silver lining from Sutton’s performance, he was at least on the field for 74 percent of their offensive snaps.
The trade of Demaryius Thomas to the Texans seemed like a prime opportunity for Sutton’s production to take off. He’s certainly spending more time on the field, but he only has seven receptions for 149 yards across his last three games. If there was ever a time for him to have a breakout performance, this is it. The Bengals are having a hard time slowing anyone down right now and have allowed the second-most passing yards per game (292) to go along with 25 passing touchdowns.
Seth Roberts vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $5,200
DraftKings = $4,000
Just about nothing has gone right for the Raiders this year. They’ve traded away a couple of their best players and have also been decimated by injuries, especially at wide receiver. Roberts is one of the few healthy players they have left standing at the position. Even so, he only received three targets in Week 12 against the Ravens, catching two of them for 54 yards.
This game could get ugly in a hurry against the Chiefs. If that’s the case, the Raiders are going to be throwing the ball a lot in an effort to make a comeback. The Chiefs have allowed the most passing yards per game (297), so even though the Raiders don’t have a lot of weapons, they might be able to move the ball some. Roberts doesn’t have a ton of touchdown upside, but there is some appeal here for tournament contests at this cheap price.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Allen Robinson II vs. New York Giants
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,700
The Bears still won in Week 12 without Mitch Trubisky (shoulder), but Robinson wasn’t very productive with two receptions on four targets for 37 yards. He was one of their key offseason acquisitions, but Robinson doesn’t always have a ton of fantasy value with 39 yards or fewer in four of his last six games. It looks like Trubisky will be unable to play again Sunday, potentially leaving Robinson with another quiet performance.
Sammy Watkins vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $5,400
Watkins was able to take the field in Week 11 despite dealing with a foot injury, but he only logged five snaps. Even though the Chiefs are coming off of their bye week, Watkins is still battling the injury and didn’t practice Wednesday. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to push him to play a lot of snaps Sunday against a bad team in the Raiders, so stay far, far away from him in DFS, even if he is active.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 8 – Wide Receivers
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
A lot of the top stars at wide receiver won’t be available for the main Sunday slate in DFS for Week 8. Adam Thielen, Julio Jones, Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas, and DeAndre Hopkins are among the players who are either on a bye or playing in prime time games. That being said, there is still plenty of talent available across the price scale. Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players to target, and some to possibly avoid, as you create your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Antonio Brown vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,500
Brown received a season-low six targets in Week 6, but he hauled in five of them for 105 yards and a touchdown. That marked Brown’s second consecutive game with at least 100 receiving yards and the fifth time in six contests that he found his way into the end zone. With six total touchdowns this season, he is only three scores away from matching his mark from all of last season. Even with being on a bye last week, Brown’s 72 targets rank sixth-most in the league.
Brown was able to take advantage of the Browns during their first meeting in Week 1, catching nine of 16 targets for 93 yards and a touchdown. The Browns have only allowed nine touchdown passes while generating 11 interceptions, but they have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game (279). This game being played at home does work in Brown’s favor since his quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has historically played better at Heinz Field. While Roethlisberger has posted similar yardage totals at home and on the road this year, he has seven touchdowns and two interceptions in three home games compared to five touchdowns and four interceptions in three road contests.
A.J. Green vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,000
Even with the Bengals’ offensive struggles in Week 7, Green still put up great numbers. He received a season-high 14 targets, converting them into seven receptions for 117 yards. That marked Green’s third straight game with at least 10 targets and the fourth time this season that he has finished with at least 85 yards. However, he did fail to reach the end zone for the third straight week.
While it is a bit concerning that Green has struggled to score touchdowns lately, he did record five of them across his first four games. He’s also finished with at least eight touchdowns in every season of his career in which he has played all 16 games. This is a prime matchup for him to find his way into the end zone again with the Bucs allowing the most passing touchdowns (18) in the league despite already having their bye week.
Tyreek Hill vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,800
DraftKings = $8,600
Hill didn’t have a great performance yardage wise last week, catching seven passes for 68 yards. His 9.7 yards-per-reception was his second-lowest mark of the season. On the bright side, he still had 10 targets, marking the third time in the last four games that he had at least that many. Also, he scored a touchdown to bring his total to seven for the year, matching his mark from all of 2017.
The Chiefs offense leaves most of their skill players with significant upside with Hill maybe having the highest ceiling of them all. His 15.5 yards-per-reception rank him inside the top 20 in the league and his seven touchdown receptions are more than any other player. The Broncos have been much better at defending against the pass than the run this season, but Hill still has a high enough floor in this potent offense to be worth considering in cash contests.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Emmanuel Sanders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,200
DraftKings = $6,500
The addition of Case Keenum at quarterback hasn’t exactly gone as well as the Broncos had hoped for, but he’s certainly provided a significant boost for Sanders. Last year, Sanders caught 47 of 92 targets for 555 yards and two touchdowns across 12 games. Through seven games this season, he has 46 receptions on 61 targets for 601 yards and three touchdowns. He had just a 51.5% catch rate last year, but that mark stands at 75.4% this season.
Sanders did leave their Week 7 game after injuring his ankle, but he’s had extra time to recover with that game being played on Thursday. All indications are that he should be able to play Sunday and the Broncos will certainly need him to try and keep pace with the Chiefs offense. The Chiefs defense did play much better against the Bengals. but they’ve still allowed the second-most passing yards per game (317).
Tyler Boyd vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $6,700
Boyd was one of the main players to suffer from the Bengals 10-point performance last week, catching three of four targets for just 27 yards. It was the first time this year he received less than five targets in a game and his three receptions were also his fewest since Week 1. He’s been a bit boom-or-bust, posting two 100-yard performances, but also recording three contests with fewer than 50 yards.
The Bengals continue to be short on pass-catching options with Tyler Eifert out for the season and John Ross unlikely to play in this game. That should be great news for Boyd because not only do the Bucs give up a ton of touchdowns, but they’ve also allowed the most passing yards per game (328). Boyd has been on the field for at least 93% of the team’s offensive snaps the last two weeks, so don’t be surprised if he has one of his best performances of the season Sunday.
Christian Kirk vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $4,500
The Cardinals offense is a disaster. They’ve scored fewer than 20 points in all but one game this season, which finally led to the firing of offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. Byron Leftwich now takes over the offensive reins, so it might take a couple of games to see how his play calling shakes out. That being said, it can’t be any worse than things were under McCoy’s tenure.
One player who has played fairly well despite the team’s struggles in Kirk, who has been on the field for 74% of their offensive snaps this season. He’s finished with at least 57 receiving yards in four of his last five games and has received at least five targets in five of his last six. Their offensive futility has resulted in him scoring only one touchdown, but that score did come against these same 49ers in Week 5. The 49ers defense has allowed 16 touchdown passes and recorded just one interception, so this looks like an opportunity to take a chance on Kirk in tournament play.
Jordy Nelson vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $5,300
DraftKings = $4,700
This season has been a lost cause for the Raiders. The team traded away their best defensive player in Khalil Mack just before the start of the year and now they have dealt Amari Cooper to the Cowboys. Add in the fact that Marshawn Lynch was just placed on IR and this offense is severely lacking playmakers.
One of the last men left standing is Nelson. Outside of his 173-yard performance in Week 3, Nelson hasn’t finished with more than 50 receiving yards in another game this year. The good news is that he does have three touchdowns and he was tied with Cooper with 31 targets, so he could be even more involved moving forward. The Colts have been scoring in bunches of late, so the Raiders might need to lean on Nelson and the passing game to keep pace.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Sammy Watkins vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,600
Watkins is coming off one of his better performances of the season in Week 7, catching four of seven targets for 74 yards. He has upside, but he also is very inconsistent, finishing with 21 yards or fewer three separate times. Hill and Travis Kelce are the clear top receiving options for the Chiefs, with both having at least 60 targets compared to Watkins’ 40. His price on DraftKings is somewhat reasonable based on his inconsistencies, but he’s still risky. Considering Boyd is close to the same price as Watkins on FanDuel, it might be prudent to avoid him all together there.
Marvin Jones Jr. vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Ford Field
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,800
The Lions have three talented wide receivers, but they use a ton of three-receiver sets, helping Jones be on the field for 98% of their offensive snaps. With that being said, Jones’ 37 targets are third behind Golden Tate (57) and Kenny Golladay (43). Jones is only averaging 45 receiving yards per game, as a result, which is a far cry from his career-high 68.8 yards per game last year. The Seahawks have allowed the third-fewest receiving yards per game (206), leaving Jones with very little upside.
NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments
*Chris Tierney – cstcst*
NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments
If you’re playing DFS this weekend don’t get fancy. Who is going to win the game and how? Answer these questions for yourself prior to constructing anything from a lineup perspective. Making more than one lineup? Alter who will win and how a bit and construct again, all while keeping a similar core lineup.
As Demarcus Robinson and Josh Hill demonstrated last weekend, roughly one obscure player POPS in each playoff game. It will likely take having one of these guys on your squad to take down a large GPP. Rostering players such as these are a true dart throw and the risk often outweighs the reward. My dart throws this week are Vance McDonald and Corey Davis. Both guys can make the big play and both have decent matchups. The Jags have a great defensive backfield and are also adept at rushing the passer. Quick hitting plays to the TE and RB are two ways to attach a defense like the Jaguars. Vance McDonald made some big plays for the 49ers last season and has seen his role expand down the stretch after being injured for much of the season. Corey Davis’s role continues to expand in the Titans passing game. He had a serviceable game last weekend and faces another spotty secondary this week in a game where his offense will likely have to throw the football.
Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
Atlanta (-3.5, 41) at Philadelphia
On paper, this sure looks like a 26-13 or thereabouts Falcons win. They are a veteran-led group with an improving defense who is accustomed to the pressures of the playoffs. Paper doesn’t mean much come kickoff. This will be an interesting game and it will be roaring in Philly. There are some interesting options here but this game isn’t where the majority of my focus will be this weekend.
DFS Chalk: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Zack Ertz, Devonta Freeman
DFS Value: Nick Foles, Nelson Agholor, Tevin Coleman, Mohamed Sanu, Jay Ajayi
Tennessee at New England (-14, 48)
This game has the opportunity to shoot out. Will the real New England defense please stand up? Statistically, they’ve been one of the worst units in the NFL this season but they’ve bowed their backs when it mattered most, allowing them to take the Division and home-field advantage yet again. Tennessee’s pass defense has been a sieve which shines a light upon his Greatness and his favorite Tight End. I think New England wins here, but I think it will be more difficult than many expect. The Titans gained some confidence last weekend and I expect their offense to have some success. I think there are a bunch of players worth rostering in this game. Remember, Belichick likes to neutralize one aspect of his opponent’s offense. That has to be the Tennessee running-game right? #gametheory – Tennessee passing attack is interesting to me in GPP situations. The return of Hogan should lighten the targets to Cooks here.
DFS Chalk: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, Delanie Walker, Derrick Henry
DFS Value: Corey Davis, Eric Decker, James White, Rex Burkhead, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Rishard Matthews
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-7, 41)
Sunday should be the fun day for this weekends slate and kicks off with a very interesting matchup in Pittsburgh. If Ryan Shazier were healthy, I’d think this was a slam dunk Steelers victory. As we all now, he sadly is not (keep on getting well Ryan!), and the Steelers run defense has not looked the same. They’ll copy the Bills blueprint and load the box with eight men. Will Nathan Hackett trust Blake Bortles here? Will they allow him to attack this Steelers defense down the field with Lee, Hurns and Westbrook? That is likely their plan and without something like it, they’ll be cleaning out their lockers early next week. The Steelers offense has the tough chore of the Jaguars defense. The Jags will slow the Steelers down some here, but the Jags offense has to apply pressure to this Steelers team. An upset here wouldn’t shock me but I think this is perhaps the most interesting matchup of the playoffs thus far and will be telling about the Steelers Championship hopes.
DFS Chalk: Big Ben, LeVeon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster
DFS Value: Vance McDonald, Dede Westbrook, Mercedes Lewis, Marqise Lee
New Orleans at Minnesota (-4.5, 46.5)
Like our Carolina | New Orleans call last week, this is the one with the best opportunity to shoot out and could be a thrilling final game to the weekend. The Vikings are legit, but so are the Saints. Both of these teams are formidable on both sides of the ball and both teams have offensive players who can score from anywhere on the field. I prefer Minnesota here but as anyone who follows the NFL knows, the Saints offense is capable of moving 85 yards in two or three plays at any time.
DFS Chalk: Case Keenum, Adam Thielen, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara
DFS Value: Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Kyle Rudolph, Ted Ginn, Brandon Coleman, Josh Hill
Top GPP Stacks:
1a: Case Keenum, Jerick Mckinnon, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas
2a: Tom Brady, James White, Rob Gronkowski, Corey Davis
NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football
*Chris Tierney – cstcst*
NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football
Welcome to Wild Card weekend! The stakes ramp up on Saturday as the 2018 edition of the NFL playoffs open in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon. There are some intriguing matchups this weekend which we’ll dive into each a little bit below. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
Tennessee at Kansas City (-8.5, 44)
Vegas Implied Final Score:
Kansas City 26
Tennessee 18
Key Injuries:
- Demarco Murray has been ruled out meaning Derrick Henry will get the majority of touches out of the backfield for the Titans.
- Albert Wilson was nicked up during the win over Denver but all signs point to him playing this week.
DFS Chalk: Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry, Alex Smith, Chiefs Defense
DFS Value: Eric Decker, Delanie Walker, Albert Wilson, Corey Davis, Marcus Mariota
Kansas City has gotten well over the past four weeks after a four-game losing streak nearly derailed their season. The teams they beat during this winning streak? The Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins and Broncos. One winning record out of the bunch. The Titans also stumble into the playoffs having lost three of their final four. Two of those came in Western time zones in hard fought games against Arizona and San Francisco, and they also dropped a close contest at home to the Rams before clinching this spot last week at home against Jacksonville. This matchup looks evenly matched on paper and while chilly, the forecasted 28-degree weather is not awful for offensive players.
Atlanta at Los Angeles (-6.5, 48.5)
Vegas Implied Final Score:
Los Angeles 27.5
Atlanta 22
Key Injuries:
- There are no injuries of significance to monitor in this game.
DFS Chalk: Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Rams Defense, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu
DFS Value: Sammy Watkins, DeVonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Austin Hooper
The biggest DFS decision of the week is whether to fade Todd Gurley, who finished the Regular Season as the top RB in Fantasy Football. He is very expensive across all formats this weekend and has certainly earned his price tag. He will feature on Saturday and his success or lack thereof will likely dictate GPP formats before Sunday games even kick off. Early projected ownership reports have a majority not paying the massive price tag. Personally, I’ve yet to decide which way I’ll end up going but this is likely the central decision to Wildcard DFS. Gurley would need to hit the 25-30 point mark to return GPP value, which while doable, is hardly something to bank on. The Rams defensive weakness is against the run game and I expect the Falcons to attempt to control the ball and play keep away from the Rams in this one. The Rams are legit and are a very dangerous offense capable of taking what the defense gives them.
Carolina at New Orleans (-7, 48.5)
Las Vegas Implied Score:
New Orleans 27.25
Carolina 21.25
Key Injuries:
- The Saints tight end situation is a bit murky, and while a complete potential flier, it might be worth paying attention to.
DFS Chalk: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Greg Olsen, Michael Thomas
DFS Value: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Ted Ginn, Mark Ingram
In our opinion, this sets up as the most interesting game on the weekend slate. These two teams met the first weekend in December with New Orleans prevailing by 10 points. In that game, the Saints ran for 148 yards and Brees threw for 269 yards with Kamara accounting for over 120 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns on 14 touches. In that game, the Panthers defense was visibly frustrated with their inability to wrap up Kamara. The Panthers will have one focus this week and that will be limiting and tackling the Saints lightning bolt offensive weapon. That could open the rest of the field for Brees and his wideouts, which sure seems like a good GPP route. Of course, the Panthers are a talented team very capable of winning and moving on here. Cam is scrambling once again, which makes him an elite option. While the Panthers are lacking at the WR position, Christian McCaffery and a healthy Greg Olsen make up for it. This game is a coin flip and brings plenty of fantasy options with perhaps the best chance of ‘shooting out’.
Buffalo at Jacksonville (-9, 39.5)
Las Vegas Implied Score:
Jacksonville 23.80
Buffalo 16.30
DFS Chalk: LeSean McCoy (if healthy), Leonard Fournette, Jags defense
DFS Value: Kellan Cole, Blake Bortles, Dede Westbrook
LeSean McCoy is likely to give it a go on his bum ankle, and without his presence, the Bills are a tremendous longshot to even threaten the Jaguars in this spot. Many are down on the Jags after a rough finish that saw them drop two in a row to end the season. The Jags are an interesting team heading into the postseason and they do two things well that win Championships. They have the best talent on defense in the AFC and can run the football. The game script here should allow Fournette and the Jags defense to shine all while awarding a home fan base that hasn’t seen a home playoff game in a decade. On paper, the Jags sure look like a team that no one wants to host in the Divisional Round.
OVERALL:
Top DFS Chalk Selections: Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville, Todd Gurley, RB, LA Rams, Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City
Top GPP / Value Selections: Christian McCaffery, RB, Carolina, Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta, Austin Hooper, TE, Atlanta, Eric Decker, WR, Tennessee
Top GPP Contrarian Stack: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Greg Olsen
Fantasy Football Season Preview: Wide Receivers 2017
**Mike Barner**
Fantasy Football Season Preview Wide Receivers 2017
The long journey through the NFL season is rapidly approaching, meaning it’s one of the most exciting times of the year: drafting your fantasy football team. While you need your players to stay healthy and have a little luck go your way, having a strong draft can go a long way to determining the fate of your season.
Lineup Lab is here to help you come away a winner. In the third of our season previews, we’ll break down the wide receiver position. With the creation of PPR scoring, wide receivers are more valuable now than ever before. Even in standard scoring, creating a stable of quality receivers can help separate you from your competition. Teams are throwing the ball a lot now and using three-receiver sets more often, creating tremendous depth at the position for fantasy owners.
Whether you want to draft elite wide receivers early or select a sleeper or two in the later rounds, we’ll examine some players to target and avoid as you navigate your way through your draft.
Old Faces In New Places
Brandin Cooks – New England Patriots
Cooks is coming off back-to-back seasons with at least 1,138 receiving yards and at least eight receiving touchdowns. He has increased his yards per reception in each season of his career, culminating in 15 yards per reception last season. The Saints threw plenty of passes his way as he had 78 receptions on 117 targets last season.
He moves on to the defending champion Patriots this year after being acquired for a first round draft pick. The Patriots are now loaded at wide receiver with Cooks joining the returning cast of Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell. Throw in tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen to go along with running backs who can also catch the ball out of the back field and the result is one scary offense.
While quarterback Tom Brady must be excited about all the talent around him, the move to New England did not helps Cooks fantasy value. Edelman had 98 receptions last season, but the receiver with the next most catches was Hogan with only 38. While Edelman might lose some of his workload to Cooks, it’s hard to imagine Cooks getting the same amount of targets he did in New Orleans. He can still have a valuable season, but don’t expect him to be more than a WR2 this season.
Brandon Marshall – New York Giants
The Giants now have a scary wide receiver trio consisting of Marshall, Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard. While Victor Cruz carried significant name recognition, he didn’t fit well with the Giants scheme last season. Cruz is better suited to play in the slot, a position that was occupied by Shepard the majority of the time.
While Cruz wasn’t able to produce on the outside, that is where Marshall has thrived over the course of his career. He had a down year with the New York Jets last season as he only recorded 59 receptions for 788 yards and three touchdowns. However, it’s no secret that the Jets had some of the worst quarterback play in the league.
One stat that jumps out is that Marshall only had a 46.1 catch percentage last season. That was by far the worst percentage of his career and was more than 10 percent worse than every season outside of his rookie campaign.
Marshall’s fantasy prospects have improved with the Giants as although he is clearly their number two receiver, he should see plenty of red zone targets. The Giants use a lot of three-receiver sets and attempted 598 passes last season, good for eighth most in the NFL.
Marshall hold’s more value in standard leagues than in PPR, but expect him to bounce back and be in the WR2 discussion with Big Blue.
Overrated Players
Allen Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars
Robinson took the fantasy world by storm in 2015 when he had 80 receptions for 1,400 yards and a whopping 14 touchdowns. He averaged 87.5 yards per game and an impressive 17.5 yards per reception. Big things were expected from Robinson again in 2016, making him a selection among the first group of wide receivers taken in most fantasy drafts.
Unfortunately for those who drafted Robinson early, he took a significant step back in 2016. He finished the season with 73 receptions for 883 yards and six touchdowns. His targets were identical in both 2015 and 2016 at 151, but the big difference was his yardage and touchdown totals. Players taken far later than him in most drafts who had more receiving yards last season include Mike Wallace (1,017 yards), Michael Crabtree (1,003 yards)and Rishard Matthews (945 yards).
The main reason for Robinson’s regression was the struggles of quarterback Blake Bortles. Bortles had 35 touchdowns and averaged 12.5 yards per completion in 2015, but only had 23 touchdowns and averaged 10.6 yards per completion in 2016. Things have been so bad for him during the preseason that he could possibly lose the starting job to Chad Henne.
While some owners still remember Robinson’s insane 2015 season and think he could bounce back in a major way this season, I’m not one of them. The struggles at the quarterback position will continue to limit his value, making him a low end WR2 at best. Don’t be surprised is Marshall has a better season than Robinson.
Sammy Watkins – Los Angeles Rams
Watkins got off to a great start to his career, hauling in 65 receptions for 982 yards and six touchdowns in his rookie season in 2014. He followed that up with 60 receptions, 1,047 yards and nine touchdowns while playing in only 13 games in 2015. However, injuries limited him even more in 2016 as he played only eight games. The end result was only 28 receptions, 430 yards and two touchdowns.
The Buffalo Bills have moved on from Watkins, sending him to the Rams as Los Angeles attempts to surround Jared Goff with some talent. Kenny Britt lead the team with 68 receptions for 1,002 yards last season, but he has moved on to the Cleveland Browns. Goff struggled in his seven starts last season, completing only 54.6 percent of his passes and throwing only five touchdowns compared to seven interceptions.
The problem with Watkins from a fantasy perspective is his name still carries more value than his numbers. He has a lot of talent, but injuries have put a major damper on the start of his career. It should not be overlooked that he also had a very solid quarterback with the Bills in Tyrod Taylor. Taylor had a 61.7 percent completion percentage and 17 passing touchdowns compared to only six interceptions in 15 games last year.
When you factor in his injury history and having Goff as his QB, Watkins becomes a risky fantasy option. Let someone else take the risk.
Undervalued Players
Cameron Meredith – Chicago Bears
Meredith broke out in 2016 as he hauled in 66 receptions for 888 yards and four touchdowns. He averaged 13.5 yards per reception and caught 68 percent of the passes thrown his way. All this production came in only 14 games as he did not play until Week 3. Meredith finished last season on a high note as he had at least 104 yards in two of his last three games and at least 61 yards in each of his last five games.
The Bears lost Alshon Jeffery to the Philadelphia Eagles this off season, dealing a significant blow to their receiving unit. They did bring in Victor Cruz and Kendall Wright, but neither player is in the same class as Jeffery. Their other main receiver is Kevin White, who can’t seem to stay healthy during his young career. He was limited to only four games last year, recording 19 receptions for 187 yards.
The Bears should also have improved quarterback play this season. They used the trio of Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley last year, which combined for 18 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. This season they signed Mike Glennon away from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and draft Mitchell Trubisky with the second overall pick. Although Glennon is the presumed starter for at least the beginning of the season, you would have to figure either he or Trubisky can’t do much worse than last season’s quarterbacks.
Meredith is going far too late in drafts based on his potential. A 1,000 yard season is not out of the question, making him someone to keep your eye on for the later rounds of your draft.
Willie Snead – New Orleans Saints
Snead is coming off a very solid 2016 campaign as he posted 72 receptions for 895 yards and four touchdowns in only his second season in the NFL. He has had at least 100 targets and averaged at least 12.4 yards per catch in both seasons of his career.
The most significant loss for the Saints this off season was trading Cooks to the Patriots, leaving his 117 targets up for grabs. Some of those targets will be taken by Michael Thomas, but he already had 121 targets and 92 receptions in his rookie campaign last year. They also signed Ted Ginn Jr., but he has never had more than 56 receptions in any season of his career.
Drew Brees continues to put up big numbers as the Saints were first in passing yards, second in completion percentage and tied for second in passing touchdowns in the NFL last year. With Brees showing no signs of slowing down and Cooks gone, this has the makings of a big season for Snead. While he may not be a big contributor in the touchdown department, look for him to reach 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career.
A Look At The Fantasy Playoff Schedule
Another key part of your research is to know who has favorable match ups during the fantasy football playoffs, generally weeks 15 and 16 in most leagues. Let’s dive in and see where you can gain that edge.
Favorable Schedules
Julio Jones – Atlanta Falcons
There is no question that Jones is one of the best wide receivers in the league. He finished last season with 83 receptions, 1,409 yards and six touchdowns in only 14 games. Big things are expected from him again this season and he has great match ups during the fantasy playoffs. Week 15 brings a match up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who he had 12 receptions, 177 yards and two touchdowns against in two games last season. Week 16 brings the Saints who allowed the most passing yards in the league last season. Jones is primed to put up some of his best numbers when it matters the most this year.
Demaryius Thomas – Denver Broncos
Thomas may not have great quarterbacks throwing him the ball, but that didn’t stop him from recording his fifth straight season with at least 1,000 receiving yards last year. He gets an excellent match up in Week 15 against the Indianapolis Colts who allowed the sixth most passing yards and tied for the second fewest interceptions last season. Week 16 isn’t that difficult either as he gets to face the Washington Redskins. The Redskins allowed the eighth most receiving yards and were in the bottom four in completion percentage last year. Look for Thomas to cash in during these two games.
Difficult Schedules
Terrelle Pryor – Washington Redskins
Although big things are expected from Pryor his season, his fantasy playoff schedule is a nightmare. Week 15 brings a contest against the Arizona Cardinals who allowed the fourth fewest passing yards and were tied for the eighth fewest passing touchdowns allowed. Week 16 brings the worst match up of them all against the Broncos as they allowed the fewest passing yards and fewest passing touchdowns last season. If you are lucky enough to make your fantasy playoffs, your hopes better not rest on Pryor or you are bound to be disappointed.
T.Y. Hilton – Indianapolis Colts
While Pryor gets the Broncos in Week 16, Hilton has to face them in Week 15. One more great stat for the Broncos defense is they only allowed 5.8 yards per reception last year. Known for his big play ability, that’s not good news for Hilton. He will play the Baltimore Ravens on the road in Week 16 who allowed the ninth fewest passing yards and tied for the most interceptions in the league last season. Hilton is an elite talent, but his value could be significantly limited in the final two games of the fantasy season.